Brad Johnson RotoGraphs Chat – 8/30/16
We’ll chat at 4:00pm ET today. See ya then.
4:00 |
: Welcome folks. This week we’ll be analyzing anthems including the best ones for which to stand, sit, or otherwise.
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4:00 |
: And of course, the ones that will perform best tonight for your DFS lineups.
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4:00 |
: How did it feel to win Super Bowl XXXVII? You guys really kicked the crap out of the Raiders.
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4:01 |
: I’m not kidding, 50% of the people I’ve ever met have made a quarterback quip. And usually they think they’re the first to come up with it 🙂
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4:01 |
: Would you be so kind as to name a few American League players you’re most excited to see get called up in September?
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4:01 |
: Adam Engel comes to mind
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4:01 |
: He’s Travis Jankowski-ish
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4:02 |
: A lot of the ones I really wanted to see are already up like Sanchez and Judge
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4:02 |
: We should see some more Gallo and maybe Bradley Zimmer
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4:02 |
: Assuming Michael Brantley is healthy on opening day, which two players will be alongside him in the starting outfield?
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4:03 |
: Rajai and Chisenhall?
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4:03 |
: I always guess conservatively
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4:03 |
: I’m pretty sure you are supposed to run around on all fours for the Legoland anthem.
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4:03 |
: “run” is a bit of a misnomer. It’s more robotic than that
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4:03 |
: Who would you rather take a flier on next season, Boyd or Triggs?
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4:04 |
: Right now, Triggs seems higher ceiling lower floor
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4:04 |
: Since Boyd is basically keyed in as a replacement level to fantasy average pitcher, I’d gamble on the riskier profile
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4:04 |
: How much are you buying Ivan Nova right now? Is he a must own in 12 teamers considering his next 4 starts: MIL, CIN, @PHI, @CIN?
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4:05 |
: I wouldn’t @CIN him
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4:05 |
: But sure, take a flier for that stretch. We’ll have an even better idea by
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4:05 |
: right now, we see a couple small positive indicators which could be pure luck
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4:05 |
: and some good results which, again, could be pure luck
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4:05 |
: or maybe he’s been Searaged into a real pitcher
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4:06 |
: The Pirates really need to stop doing that to pitchers with just 2 months to free agency
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4:06 |
: Please rank these 3B-eligible players in terms of 2017: J. Polanco, Healy, Sandoval.
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4:06 |
: You done it. Could change wildly by draft season though
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4:06 |
: I’m currently speculating for 2017 saves in my AL-only league, looking at guys that aren’t likely to be owned right now but might play their way in to a 9th inning role next season. So far I’ve pegged Keone Kela and Trevor May. Any other good names you can think of? Thanks!
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4:07 |
: Tony Zych. There’s a chance Diaz gets put back in the rotation.
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4:07 |
: Is Mike Clevinger part of Cleveland’s starting rotation next season?
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4:07 |
: There’s a chance, but I’m thinking he’ll be the sixth or seventh guy. They can basically return the same starting five of Kluber-Carrasco-Salazar-Bauer-Tomlin
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4:08 |
: and still have Anderson in the mix too, among several others
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4:08 |
: I really doubt they trade an established guy
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4:08 |
: Are Taijuan Walker and Matt Shoemaker top-20 arms in the American League next year?
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4:08 |
: smells about right to me
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4:09 |
: with Shoemaker in particular, I’ve taken a “see it to believe it” mindset
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4:09 |
: I won’t be drafting him, but I will be looking to buy
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4:09 |
: So no Zimmer in the starting OF next year?
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4:09 |
: I kinda doubt it. At some point, yes, assuming he’s healthy when other injuries crop up
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4:10 |
: Any chance Joey Gallo is starting somewhere in the majors come day one of next year’s regular season?
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4:10 |
: I’ll handicap it at 20%
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4:10 |
: So, can Ryan Schimpf keep this up? Would you roll with him over Grichuk and Morales?
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4:10 |
: Yes-ish
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4:10 |
: give me a second to get more specific
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4:11 |
: So a .371 ISO from a 5′ 9” guy is not sustainable
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4:12 |
: That said, I do think he could push .280. He’s all fly ball so he’ll hit few singles
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4:12 |
: The bigger issue is overall hit rate. He’s batting .240ish now
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4:12 |
: I see him as a .190/.300/.470 hitter. That can play in the majors, but it’s kinda ugly
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4:13 |
: Part of that is my expectation that pitchers will find an exploit of some kind
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4:13 |
: we’re right at the point when it should be happening
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4:13 |
: Stretch run for september 1 roster expansion, prospect hounds set your add/bid timers!
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4:14 |
: Advice from Dr. Met
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4:14 |
: Incidentally, Dr. Met was fired by the team for gross negligence
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4:14 |
: He’s no longer affiliated with the New York Mets or the Met
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4:15 |
: Pick 3 for points keeper league, pitchers highly valued, lose two rounds each season: Velasquez (19th), Giolito (16th), Urias (23rd), Darvish (9th)
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4:15 |
: Darvish and Urias for sure
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4:15 |
: wait out the other two for now
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4:15 |
: and a pretty good chance an injury makes your decision for you
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4:15 |
: What’s the deal with Kinsler? Is he just worn out? Drop him for Schimpf in a 12-team, 25-man H2H?
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4:16 |
: Hang on to Kinsler. Maybe try to swap out a bench piece for Schimpf instead if you really want to use the hot hand
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4:16 |
: I’m the truth
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4:17 |
: RoS projection is something like .270/.315/.440. That’ll look pretty nifty with half the games at Coors
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4:17 |
: 12 team head to head keeper league, in first and heading to the playoffs. I am looking to shore up the back end of my rotation for the playoffs. Shoemaker, Paxton, Tyler Anderson, Junior Guerra, Robbie Ray, David Phelps are rostered or available, which 3 do you prefer ROS?
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4:17 |
: I think I like Anderson, Ray, and Phelps the most – in no particular order
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4:17 |
: Berrios… ooof. Wait til two thouhsand EIGHTteen?
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4:18 |
: yea, always be prepared to wait a long time on pitching prospects.\
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4:18 |
: I like Alex Dicersons Statcast-based xOBA. Is that enough to make him a keeper?
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4:18 |
: Without knowing your specific conditions, no idea
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4:18 |
: league has to be pretty deep
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4:19 |
: Rendon going to be top 15? Sure looks like he’s back.
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4:19 |
: Am I missing a Rendon? He’s nowhere near top 15
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4:19 |
: Keep Carlos Rodon for $14 next year ($4 annual increment) in a 12-team, 25-man H2H league?
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4:20 |
: Real fringy. I’m starting to give up on the breakout potential, just haven’t seen any sign of the light going on. Could happen though
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4:20 |
: evaluate your opportunity costs because he would probably cost more in auction
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4:20 |
: just because a player would cost more in auction doesn’t automatically mean he should be kept
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4:20 |
: Luis Cessa has looked solid in his first two starts. Why has his stuff played up since moving from the bullpen? Isn’t it usually the other way around? Is there something sustainable there?
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4:21 |
: Some guys find something in the bullpen. There are various reasons.
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4:21 |
: As for Cessa specifically, I have no insights.
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4:21 |
: My exposure to him does not extend beyond his FanGraphs page. I can interpret that for you if you’d like. But you probably can too
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4:22 |
: Seen anything from Gurriel to suggest that he’s a 10-team bat?
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4:22 |
: I’ll go with 12 teams for now
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4:22 |
: which means he can be rostered in certain circumstances in 10 teamers
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4:22 |
: Is Salas going to close on Anaheim the rest of the way? Any other guys worth speculating on?
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4:22 |
: I don’t see anyone else over there
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4:23 |
: newbie question: it seems like this would be the best time in my redraft league to pick up top almost-ready minor leaguers (De Leon, Renfroe, Margot, etc.) — but nobody’s going for it in my league. Am I missing something? Callups have typically been picked up instantly.
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4:23 |
: Most of the impact minor leaguers have already been called up
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4:23 |
: De Leon is interesting, but I have a feeling there’s a reason we haven’t seen him sooner
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4:24 | : To be clear, this is the reason – |
4:24 |
: De Leon isn’t on it, and they have a ton of 60 day guys coming back
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4:25 |
: Margot probably isn’t coming up either, though Renfroe may
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4:25 |
: Mets just renewed AAA for 2 yrs. why?
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4:25 |
: So it’s kinda challenging to spin up a new franchise
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4:26 |
: They’d either need to convince another existing team in the league to swap or start fresh, both of which probably involve financial losses
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4:26 |
: Because the Mets are financially strapped for whatever reason, they don’t have the resources to improve their situation
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4:26 |
: it’s kind of funny in a sad sack sort of way
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4:26 |
: Given that he seems to have righted the ship quite well after a terrible beginning. Where are you ranking Bregman going into next year? Where do you think he plays? Thanks.
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4:27 |
: I’ll say 3B for now until the Astros announce otherwise. The plan was supposed to involve moving Correa to third with Bregman at SS, but they didn’t want to move Correa mid-season
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4:27 |
: so it could change
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4:28 |
: Among 3B, Bregman probably falls in the 10-15 band. Many good 3B these days. Higher on the SS list
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4:28 |
: You can have one guy in your AL-only between Gallo and Zimmer. You choose?
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4:28 |
: Zimmer, easy
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4:28 |
: I’m a sucker for 5 category production
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4:28 |
: Gallo is a 0-3 category guy. Zimmer is 3 to 5.
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4:29 |
: How do you like the long term outlook of Jose Ramirez? Considering trading for him in AL only dynasty, but not sure what he provides for the future
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4:29 |
: I like the lazy comp to Michael Brantley. He’s got the confidence and swagger now, I think he’ll maintain the success
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4:29 |
: How do you handle McCutchen next year? Hope for bounceback given age and skill set or pass until you see something?
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4:30 |
: I’ve been in pure pass mode on McCutchen for a couple years. Price might finally drop enough to take a flier though
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4:30 |
: So Schimpf is the new Uggla then? Ugly, indeed…
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4:30 |
: That was the exact comp I didn’t bother to mention
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4:30 |
: Better than late-career Uggla though – more consistent power and contact
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4:30 |
: the low average is mostly a result of high IFFB and fly ball rates
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4:31 |
: late-career Uggla basically had 2.5X the GB rate
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4:31 |
: and those are useless
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4:31 |
: Thoughts on Cron ROS? Like him more or less than Pedro, Soler, C. Dickerson, Plouffe?
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4:32 |
: No strong feelings about that list. Probably prefer Alvarez foremost
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4:32 |
: Cron or Plouffe would be second for me
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4:32 |
: I don’t have a single player to drop in 10-team and no open roster spot for when Kershaw returns. What do I do?
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4:32 |
: You take a look at your category scores and make a tough decision based on your existing strengths
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4:33 |
: don’t get ahead of yourself, you may even opt to leave Kershaw in DL limbo until the day of his second start
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4:33 |
: assuming it’s Yahoo or another platform that lets you manage an illegal roster
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4:33 |
: What the heck am I doing with Brad Miller on the cheap in my ottoneu league? I feel like I’m not totally sold but I’ll end up keeping him because he’s too decent to drop but not good enough to draw any real trade interest
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4:34 |
: He should draw interest depending on the price. You’re not going to get a $11 Springer for him, but a $5 Maikel Franco? Seems reasonable.
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4:34 |
: If all else fails, the flex is great
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4:34 |
: Cron, Soler, or Gurriel for my 10-team UT slot ROS?
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4:34 |
: If you want a complete shot in the dark, Gurriel probably has the top ceiling
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4:35 |
: mostly because he could be almost anything, we just don’t know
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4:35 |
: Cron is safer in a sense
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4:35 |
: What’s your opinion on Steven Wright as a keeper? 14 team, keep 14. Where do you personally rank him? Thanks.
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4:35 |
: Easily in the top 14
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4:35 |
: He could really disappoint like Dickey post-Cy
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4:35 |
: but I think he’ll keep on truckin’
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4:35 |
: Did the league adjust hard against Leonys Martin? He hasn’t been even close to the same since his DL return… or is that to blame?
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4:35 |
: I’d blame the DL
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4:36 |
: So this isn’t actually an uncommon occurrence
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4:36 |
: Player makes mechanical change
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4:36 |
: Player rakes
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4:36 |
: Player gets hurt
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4:36 |
: Player reverts
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4:36 |
: now there are few theories as to why the injury/reversion happen
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4:37 |
: 1. Injuries are common or 2. new mechanics exposed a physiological weakness/caused the injury
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4:37 |
: If 1. then reversion happens because the player loses whatever “feel” he had that led to success
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4:38 |
: If 2. then the player physically can’t maintain the change while staying healthy
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4:38 |
: There are some other potential scenarios too
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4:38 |
: I can’t tell you which applies to Leonys
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4:38 |
: Keep one forever: Josh Bell or Jose Abreu? (yes, this question would’ve sounded absurd at the start of the year)
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4:38 |
: Josh Bell, and no I think it would have been a fair question at the start of the year
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4:38 |
: but I always find myself way bullish on Abreu
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4:38 |
: err BEARISH
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4:39 |
: if I may digress (yes, I give myself permission to digress)…
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4:39 |
: Abreu was one of those guys I initially liked more than everybody else
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4:39 |
: then he exceeded even my high expectations and then everybody liked him more than me
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4:39 |
: this happens with a couple players every year
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4:40 |
: it’s some kind of psychological effect, I forget which
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4:40 |
: Who do you take in a dynasty league, Clint Frazier or Bradley Zimmer?
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4:40 |
: Still Zim. Frazier isn’t a 5 cat guy
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4:40 |
: Maikel Franco’s plate discipline issues are going in the wrong direction. Think he figures it out enough to make it into the top 6-8 3B conversation for 2017, or is his ceiling somewhere in the 10-15 range?
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4:40 |
: Put him 10-15, so many good 3B now
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4:40 |
: Blake Snell next year? Same thoughts as Berrios?
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4:41 |
: No, I like Snell a little more for a quick adjustment
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4:41 |
: Berrios is a power pitcher who can’t power his way through MLB hitters, kind of a poor man’s Yordano
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4:41 |
: Snell just needs to figure out how to prevent home runs
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4:41 |
: which is definitely a tough challenge in the AL East
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4:42 |
: but it’s a much smaller adjustment than learning how to pitch
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4:42 |
: Berrios basically has to start from scratch. Minor league hitters aren’t capable of teaching him anything about pitching
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4:42 |
: he’ll have to take his lumps in the majors
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4:43 |
: Regarding Rendon: since 7/1 his OPS has topped .924 and he’s cut back on his K rate almost in half.
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4:43 |
: I don’t disagree that he’s a good fantasy asset
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4:43 |
: we have players posting peak steroids era-type stat lines. Rendon’s is a good-for-2014 line.
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4:44 |
: O/U 9.5 games at catcher for Schwarber
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4:44 |
: Gimme the under
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4:44 |
: Who opens 2017 as the Cubs closer?
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4:44 |
: I’ll hazard it’s Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen
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4:44 |
: Or maybe it’s both
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4:44 |
: they have the money and then some
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4:44 |
: I still really want to see somebody sign Chapman as a starter
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4:45 |
: just say, “screw it, here’s 5 years and $110MM, you’re a starter now.”
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4:45 |
: What kind of value do you place on Miguel Sano in 2017? Is .250/.350/.500 realistic?
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4:45 |
: I’ll go a little lower on the AVG/OBP
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4:46 |
: I’ve also noticed the Twins are painful with their handling of young players
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4:46 |
: especially the ones who are supposed to be good
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4:46 |
: that makes me edgy to buy in on any of them
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4:46 |
: Shoemaker’s home/road splits are very stark, not just this year, but for his career. Any feel for why he’s so bad on the road? If anything, Angel Stadium park factors suggest it should be tougher there.
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4:46 |
: Angels Stadium is one of the pitcher friendliest in the league
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4:48 |
: So I looked a little closer – as much as can be done in a minute
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4:48 |
: his strikeout rate is basically 3 K/9 higher at home
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4:48 |
: over this year and last year
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4:48 |
: one explanation is luck
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4:48 |
: the other is preparation
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4:49 |
: some guys are uncomfortable sleeping in hotels – or they get worse food – or it’s something else road-related
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4:49 |
: the point being that a minority of players really have trouble preparing on the road
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4:49 |
: keeping Ozuna for basically nothing but damn…any signs he has anything to offer ROS?
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4:49 |
: Consider him Chris Carter. I think he’s just one of those massively streaky guys
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4:50 |
: Remember, some teams get VERY bad in September
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4:50 |
: take a look at the Phillies and Braves pitching staffs. Ozuna may have some bounce to him
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4:50 |
: Need to rebuild my pitching staff for 2017 in a keeper league. Since good keepers will be hard to pry off their teams, I’m looking at guys who will be cut coming off down years. Got any you like? I’m thinking guys like Price, Felix, Greinke, Keuchel, maybe Gerritt Cole
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4:51 |
: Sorry, you’re way ahead of me on that, I’d need a good 15 minutes to put together a list. I’ll try to sniff out a name or two in one
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4:52 |
: Stroman, Liriano, Smyly, Pineda, ARCHER
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4:52 |
: Per my last question, would you do Britton ($20), Shoemaker ($3) and Archer ($27) for Ramirez ($4) and ($3) Aaron Sanchez?
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4:53 |
: I assume this was the Jose Ramirez one from way back
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4:53 |
: Yes I think I would, maybe more for Sanchez than Ramirez
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4:53 |
: and assuming you can use something like $25 to replace Britton and still have $23 to spend elsewhere
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4:54 |
: Keeper order in a standard plus H, OBP, TB league: Bregman, Jose Ramirez, Villar?
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4:54 |
: woof, that’s hard to work out off the top of my head. You’re counting hits so many times….
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4:55 |
: I’m going to guess is Ramirez, Villar, Bregman if you’re only focusing on 2017
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4:56 |
: there being a 10-20% chance Bregman is either in a partial timeshare roster crunch of some kind or else spending some time in the minors
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4:56 |
: Ian Desmond, of course, came back down to earth from his early season #’s. Can we expect him to go 20/20 next year, too? I suppose it also depends on where he’s playing as he’s a free agent again this year.
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4:56 |
: I don’t know what to expect from him
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4:56 |
: honestly, he’s one of those guys who constantly befuddles me
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4:56 |
: Who’s a better keep: Aaron Sanchez at $3 or Quintana at $14?
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4:56 |
: Gimme Aaron
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4:56 |
: I like em both though at those prices
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4:57 |
: Think Aaron is the slightly better pitcher now
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4:57 |
: the caveat is that Quintana’s been so consistent for so long
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4:57 |
: and has a fuller repertoire
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4:57 |
: If Sanchez loses the feel of that two-seamer over the offseason, he turns pumpkin
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4:57 |
: So, AJ Reed seems to be going in the wrong direction. Not happening for him this year?
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4:57 |
: newp
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4:58 |
: I’ve had my doubts all along about his viability
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4:58 |
: remember, he was never that highly touted before a good 2015 season in the minors
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4:58 |
: there are issues with his profile, they’re resolvable but I doubt the Astros have the patience given their win-now roster
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4:58 |
: Is Khris Davis a top-15 OF in 2017 (non-OBP leagues, of course)? Seems like he’s totally sold out for power, and he’s going to finish .260/85/40/100.
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4:59 |
: Smells about right
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4:59 |
: I expect the Athletics to trade him this offseason for a tidy bundle
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4:59 |
: though I’m sure they love having a guy who can actually hit them out of the O.co Colostomy
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4:59 |
: How do you see playing time in Arizona shaking out? Pollock is back and Hermann is on rehab, do they take a long look at hermann at C and LF?
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5:00 |
: I think they put Herrmann back in a straight platoon with Welly
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5:00 |
: Pollock will start 2 of every 3 games they say
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5:00 |
: Kyle Seagar approaching keep territory in 10 team-keep 5 when all U25 guys kept without using a keep spot? U25s on roster already Sano & Franco
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5:00 |
: he’s on the border
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5:00 |
: try to get better if there’s offseason trading
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5:01 |
: Can I get rid of Darren O’Day? I have Betances, Ramos, Blanton, and Matt Bush in saves + holds league and I need a DL spot for Gerrit Cole (18 team keeper)
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5:01 |
: Sure
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5:01 |
: or Bush
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5:01 |
: or just O’Day
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5:01 |
: Rank these fringy catcher options ROS: Leon, Zunino, Rupp, Hundley
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5:01 |
: Only Hundley is truly fringy
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5:02 |
: Zunino is a must own in a 5 team 1 catcher league
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5:02 |
: Rupp and Leon are probably 12 team 1 catcher guys
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5:02 |
: I still think Leon is 95% fluke
|
5:02 |
: Any chance Wade Davis is closing for KC next week?
|
5:02 |
: no
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5:02 |
: they’ll ease him back into it
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5:03 |
: ok, time for me to wrap it up, I need a haircut!
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5:03 |
: If I have a good waiver priority now (post-trade deadline), do I use it on a decent guy who would help my team a little (keon broxton) or wait to see if someone at the bottom of the standings drops an expiring contract?
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5:03 |
: Without knowing your league, I’d use the move. Though I’m not big on Keon
|
5:03 |
: I’m not a big fan of speedsters who can’t make contact
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5:03 |
: Is Jacoby Jones a good prospect for the Tigers
|
5:04 |
: not much chance of immediate impact
|
5:04 |
: needs to make a lot of adjustments to avoid a 30% K rate
|
5:04 |
: Could flash Javy Baez though
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5:04 |
: Archer’s recent run make him a keeper (8th rd)?
|
5:04 |
: Oh it’s so tempting
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5:05 |
: I bet big on Archer this year (which has really hurt), and now I have to make the same decisions
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5:05 |
: Does Moncada get called up and if he does, will he be more than a pinch runner?
|
5:05 |
: I don’t think they want to use the 40-man spot
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5:05 |
: and they’ve already said he’s going to AFL
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5:05 |
: Could Shoemaker’s K/9 difference be related to the realization that he doesn’t have the same margin for error when on the road due to the ballpark, and thus doesn’t attack hitters with the same confidence?
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5:06 |
: Yea, could be mental. Though that’s a poor self-justification for making worse pitches
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5:06 |
: one spot in a dynasty who you adding: Brinson, Meadows, Zimmer, Renfroe?
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5:06 |
: Zimmer
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5:06 |
: Thoughts on Aaron Altherr for next season?
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5:06 |
: Like him, not sure where to rank yet
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5:06 |
: Is Orlando Arcia the new Andrelton simmons or do you see a lot more potential in that bat?
|
5:06 |
: There’s more potential, he has to adjust
|
5:06 |
: could be a speedier Jorge Polanco in a year or two
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5:07 |
: I’m amazed more fantasy sites don’t do SP matchup projections beyond one week ahead. Which starters who might be available in a 12-team league will have the most promising match-ups for the last month of the season?
|
5:07 |
: I used to tinker with that, it gets torn to shreds too often
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5:07 |
: Judge or Soler going forward in a dynasty format?
|
5:07 |
: Judge
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5:07 |
: Why do fantasy pundits seem to be down on Dylan Cozens? The 30% K-rate is alarming, but holy smokes: .275/101/37/116/21 at Double-A!
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5:07 |
: For one, Reading is a crazy offensive environment
|
5:07 |
: Coors-like
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5:07 |
: For two, Cozens does all his damage on mistakes. He may even be asked to repeat the level
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5:08 |
: An MLB bound Cozens would be hitting .330/.450/.700 or more with a 60+ HR pace
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5:08 |
: at Reading that is
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5:09 |
: He’ll get fewer mistakes in Triple-A and fewer still in the majors
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5:09 |
: let’s not talk about this too much, I still need to sell him in a couple leagues
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5:09 |
: Would you start Rich Hill tonight in Coors? H2H match-up with IP K/9 K/BB W QS HRA ERA WHIP
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5:09 |
: I’m not worried about him tonight
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5:09 |
: at least not too much
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5:09 |
: I think his approach is a good fit for Coors
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5:10 |
: That’s a wrap, good game folks!
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