Brad Johnson RotoGraphs Chat – 4/19/16

Shawn: James Shields still top 30ish SP?

Brad Johnson: No, not remotely close.

Brad Johnson: He’s a waiver wire pitcher in 12 team leagues.

Brad Johnson: Or at least he should be. Name brand will probably keep him rostered.

ChipHilton: In a 12 team NL only dynasty league, who do you like better – Matz or Nola?

Brad Johnson: Matz. Though I see Nola having the higher ceiling. I don’t think many would agree with that second statement.

Shawn: Who are ya few players having slow starts you would target in trades?

Brad Johnson: Carlos Gomez, Prince Fielder, Kolten Wong, Kyle Seager, Jason Heyward

Patrick: Parra a top 50 OF?

Brad Johnson: Sure. He’s right around there. Coors Field does a lot for a guy.

Horn Please ThankYou: Castellanos or Lamb? I want to say Castellanos, but that 0% walk rate through two weeks makes me think he hasn’t changed as much as he seems

Brad Johnson: Good question. The safer bet is Castellanos but I’m putting my money on Lamb.

Stump Junkman: I’m in an NL only league and just lost Brito to the minors. Only other OF options available are David Lough (just recalled by Philadelphia), Carl Crawford and Trayce Thompson. Any suggestions?

Brad Johnson: Well…make a trade. Surely somebody is open to a 2-for-1.

Buc Draper: Hi Brad! Would love your opinion on this trade that recently went down in my long-term dynasty league, standard scoring plus OPS. Team A traded A.J. Reed plus a third-round pick in next year’s prospect draft (7 rounds total) to Team B for Gregory Polanco.

Brad Johnson: Sounds reasonable to me.

Dion: Matt Moore top 30 SP this year? What kind of bats would be a reasonable return early on? I was offered a lousy combo of Soler and Tolleson who don’t move the needle for me

Brad Johnson: I don’t have a firm fix on Moore. I’d want a Chris Carter or Delino DeShields type. I don’t see him as top 30.

Zorak: Think Panik’s newfound power is for real? If he stays healthy (I know, if), can he be a top-5 2B?

Brad Johnson: I see him as a 12 HR guy still. No speed. Could still scrape top 5 value.

Jeff: Will Mets stick up with Conforto as #3 hitter?

Brad Johnson: If he hits and Yo isn’t doing much

Ralph: I am rather deficient in the power category. Lucas Duda is my only source of power. 10tm league. Should I venture trading for Sano. My Archer for Sano. Advisable?

Brad Johnson: It’s not a bad gamble if you have the pitching depth. I still think Archer will be fine though. Sano too.

Gristle McThornbody: Standard Roto Scoring (no holds). Can you rank these three NL relievers? Oh, Quackenbush, Strickland.

Brad Johnson: Strickland, other guys, Quack, Oh

Jesse: What’s our level of concern on Harvey? Flip him for Springer?

Brad Johnson: Yea, I have Springer well above a fully healthy Harvey.

Jake: What kind of season is Jared Eickhoff going to end up with?

Brad Johnson: 8.00 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, 3.85 ERA?

john: Need help deciding on this trade offer. 20 team auction keeper, points league. Deep league. I recieve Trout/Chisenhall/Miley for Duda/Puig/Conley. I have Trumbo/HanRam for 1B, Span in CF, J.Martinez/Granderson for RF with Parra able for all 3 OF positions. Which side would you prefer and why? SP already are Ventura/Strasburg/Richards/Wainwright/Valazquez. Conley was my bench depth, 7 starts per week max. Help!!!Thanls

Brad Johnson: Trout

Brad Johnson: Keeper costs would matter I guess

Brad Johnson: But I’d happily take the best player in baseball

PS: Worried about Bumgarner? Eno is..

Brad Johnson: Yep definitely. I’m always worried about him though

Marc: Thoughts on Klubers? Start looking at shopping or wait and see?

Brad Johnson: Wait. Nothing wrong with him, he’s just occasionally hittable.

Josh: You’re not concerned about Carlos Gomez at all? He doesn’t seem like the same guy he was in Milwaukee.

Brad Johnson: Oh, I’m very concerned. He’s not that guy anymore. But he can still hit for some power with run production and steals

Marc: Mesoraco dropable in a 1 catcher OBP league? Have Grandal as my starter

Brad Johnson: Yea you don’t need 2 C unless it’s very deep

Jon Snow: Should I dump Weiters for one of the Colorado catchers?

Brad Johnson: No

Tim: Please tell me Felix will be ok…..

Brad Johnson: uhm…sorry.

Brad Johnson: Felix was trying very hard when I watched him the other day, but he just doesn’t have a fastball anymore.

Brad Johnson: He can survive in the majors though

Kevin: Took over bad dynasty team. Trade JD Martinez + G Richards for Joc, Gomez, Glasnow+ Brendan Rodgers, Hate to give up best player in JDM, but took over a terrible team w/ very little talent

Brad Johnson: I like this for you.

Brad Johnson: JDM isn’t going to last forever. Closer he gets to 30, the faster he loses dynasty value

Pete: Will LAD bring up Urias any time soon? Is he impactful this year?

Brad Johnson: Hard to guess. I’ll say he does some relief work in Sept/Oct.

Jaypo: What does Eduardo rodriguez look like when he comes back from inury? solid #2? Top 40 sp?

Brad Johnson: More of a 3 with upside and shaky outings

Eastern NC: How much to buy into Joe Mauer? I could trade Ozuna for him in a keeper

Brad Johnson: I like Mauer again, but we’re still talking about a no power, no speed 1B

Brad Johnson: Ozuna could be a fair gamble, but I preferred him free off the wire

Roll Fizzlebeef: Prince Fielder… “It’s just April” or “Wait until he gets a few hits and then sell”?

Brad Johnson: I’ll say just April, but he could going full Carlos Lee

Jon Snow: Khris Davis should be dropped in 18 team league?

Brad Johnson: No

Rick: I have Ortiz and trumbo to play first. Should I deal Votto for Sale and Strickland?

Brad Johnson: Yea why not

Eric: Are you concerned about Kluber’s velocity dip?

Brad Johnson: No not yet. I think he can rebound. I also don’t think he needs the velo

Jeremy: You said you like Lamb more than Castellanos. What about in relation to David Wright?

Brad Johnson: I don’t like Wright as a major league regular anymore. Should be a 3 days a week guy.

Jon Snow: Besides Tanaka, which NYY SP would you most want to have?

Brad Johnson: Severino and Pineda

Jon Snow: Should I be worried about Sano this season?

Brad Johnson: Not yet.

Marc: With Kang returning hopefully soon, who do I drop in OBP roto league? K. Davis, Mesoraco, Shaw

Brad Johnson: If Meso’s just on your benchm then him

Only.the.Lonely: Deep League: Buy Avila or D. Navarro for better 2016 stats???

Brad Johnson: Navarro

Brad Johnson: Most would say Avila

Janak: Thoughts on J Dyson when he comes back? I need speed — will he have the everyday job and if so will he hit enough to make him worth a pickup?

Brad Johnson: I was never sure he could handle every day work

Brad Johnson: less so now

Marc: Maeda is a top _____ SP?

Brad Johnson: 35?

Jack: Shane Greene or Nicasio?

Brad Johnson: Nicasio for now. But his repertoire is so shallow

Jake: I currently have B Phillips & Moustakas starting at 2B & 3B respectively (12 5×5). I have room for an add, who would you pickup among the following: Schoop (2B), A. Diaz (2B/SS), J. Lamb (3B), or Escobar (3B). No striking needs in any specific categories.

Brad Johnson: Diaz

Brad Johnson: He’s a better Joe Panik with SS eligibility

Brad Johnson: more K’s

Gavin: Is Kluber’s drop in velo a concern? Should I past with Mazara and V.Velazquez to get him?

Brad Johnson: Redraft league? Maybe. Keeper, definitely no.

RP: I’m thinking of shopping Cole Hamels in my 12 team H2H OBP league where I have Thor, deGrom, and Fernandez. Looking for OF help, what would be a good target? Could use anything right now.

Brad Johnson: LoCain? Cespedes, Peralta, Polanco?

Steven: Giolito or Berrios in 2016? When do you each get called?

Brad Johnson: Thinking Berrios gets the first call. Giolito has a little more development ahead of him

Steve: Jose Abreu O/U 31 HR?

Brad Johnson: I’ll say over, 33

Steve: Flip Wacha for Blackmon or is the turf toe injury too dicey?

Brad Johnson: It can linger but if you have pitching depth it’s a reasonable gamble

William: Stay w/Nicasio in a 14tm mixed?

Brad Johnson: Sure

Sean: Shelby Miller and Corey Dickerson dropped in my 12 team mixed league. Expect either to bounce back?

Brad Johnson: Dickerson sure. Miller would be a speculative add

Ghost: Need Saves! Stash Kela or Dyson?

Brad Johnson: They’re about equal for now

Steve: Are you buying the Shane Greene post-hype hype?

Brad Johnson: Not yet. I’m just going to wait it out.

Brad Johnson: He’s not so good that we’ll be upset for sitting it out.

Ricky: What’s our level of concern for King Felix

Brad Johnson: Relatively high. As I mentioned before, he still has the stuff to pitch in the majors, but he’ll have trouble without a real fastball

Brad Johnson: I’m getting a lot of double questions so I’m going to skip ahead a bit. Sorry if you get passed over

Kevin: In a dynasty league on a rebuild, what are you trying to get for Felix? (Besides anything before the wheels fall off?)

Brad Johnson: A major long term asset. Like Bregman. Or even somebody with MLB success already

Alex McP: Adam Conley: are you buying?

Brad Johnson: Yes, but don’t go wild

Jake: 12 mixed 5×5 keeper QS instead of wins. What do I hope for for Felix and what do I accept? Or just hold?

Brad Johnson: Still looking for top 50 talents.

Brad Johnson: If you’re going to be forced to accept less, might as well wait

John: Which side of a redraft trade offer Bautista and Carrasco vs. Abreu and Kluber?

Brad Johnson: It’s a 2 player challenge trade. Probably prefer the Bats side

Terry: Is this the year Joe Ross breaks out?

Brad Johnson: He broke out last year.

Brad Johnson: That’s his best case scenario

Greg: The Oakland closer situation to be avoided if at all possible now?

Brad Johnson: Nah those are both good relievers.

Alex: Considering a trade in a keeper league where I get Miggy but give up George Springer. Miggy can’t be kept and Springer is at a good value for the next 3 years. Pull the trigger?

Brad Johnson: No!

Brad Johnson: Miggy’s barely an upgrade to Springer now

Steve: Do you like, love, or gotta have Garrett Richards?

Brad Johnson: like

Gym Bob: Have faith in Starlin Castro? Need the 2B/SS help, but hesitant to buy in.

Brad Johnson: Depends on the buy in. He’s rosterable. There are so many 2B that you don’t need to pay much

Lol: While I can appreciate that Felix is trending downward, the overreaction by some is silly. He’ll still be better than 95% of all starting pitchers out there.

Brad Johnson: 95% is a little high. He has good pitchability so he’ll survive this transition if it’s permanent

Brad Johnson: but he won’t be an ace

Danno: I’d like to flip Velasquez for a utility bat in the short term, mostly because I don’t expect him to pitch past 160 inning or so which won’t help me in the playoffs of my 16-team H2H league. What do you think is the best kind of return I can expect?

Brad Johnson: That’s going to be very league dependent. Pitching is so huge in an H2H that you could get a crazy return

Marc: HanRam or Freeman OBP Roto? Can I package Freeman with a good SP to get a decent bat?

Brad Johnson: Coin flip, and why not. Freeman himself is a decent bat

Joe: Which of these (if any) should I drop in a 12 team keeper once Erod is back: Shane Greene, Jason Hammel, Descalfani, Urias?

Brad Johnson: Greene

Steve: Buying Todd Frazier to rebound and mash with that low BABIP or is last year’s 2nd half tumble still on the brain?

Brad Johnson: I’ll buy a rebound of some sort. Think the average of his two seasons

Brendan: Maikel Franco had a hot week, then a cold week, and here we are. Any changes in thoughts on him for 2016?

Brad Johnson: No, he has an added challenge of being the only hitter on his team. He’ll be streaky

Harrison: Soler has cut down his K rate to below 20% – is it April – or is 50 PA about right to notice the beginnings of a change.

Brad Johnson: I’d have to look closer. I’m not going to make everyone wait 🙂

Roe Bott: Is Pujols done?

Brad Johnson: Nah, he’ll be fine. Low average, 30 HR

Alex: Is Ian Desmond droppable in 12 team mixed?

Brad Johnson: I just did today. Didn’t need the SS eligibility and there were better alternatives

Walt: I want to sell high on Trumbo. Is Trumbo/Cueto for C. Seager and Mazara a good deal? It’s a 1 year keeper, Mazara is a 23rd rounder in ’17. (H2H 5×5)

Brad Johnson: You don’t get to keep Seager I assume?

Brad Johnson: I think this might be forcing it a little, but it’s not bad by any means

Corner Me!: Lind, LoMo, or Forsythe? Thanks

Brad Johnson: Not LoMo

Brad Johnson: They all could disappear this year

Brad Johnson: or rebound

john: Miley – going to turn it around? Strong K/BB numbers but getting lit up

Brad Johnson: I think he’ll be fine insomuch as he’s ever fine

Franklin: Speed plays likely to be on the wire in a 12 team mixer?

Brad Johnson: Michael Taylor, Coco Crisp, Rajai Davis, Odubel Herrera

OnSight: What do you think of Tomas in an obp/slg league? He seems to be making some interesting improvements,

Brad Johnson: Can’t say I’m on the bandwagon. But I’ll keep an eye on it

RC: 12 team mixed 5×5 keeper (OBP)…should I sell Trevor Story? I have Semien and Kang too. What kind of value should I ask for?

Brad Johnson: I dealt Rendon and Piscotty to acquire Story and Jeanmar.

Brad Johnson: Probably roughly what you can get

Bobby: drop Gyorko pick up Owings?

Brad Johnson: Not unless there’s an extreme need

Alex: Pillar ends up a top __ OF?

Brad Johnson: 60-70

Young Jeezy: Panik is out on the wire. I have Pedroia at 2nd. 12 team H2H points league. Do I drop Pedroia and roll with Panik?

Brad Johnson: I’d try to hold both for a time

Jon: DeShields, Burns, Mallex or Span RoS?

Brad Johnson: Span until he breaks. Then DeShields

CJ03: What do I even do with Carlos Gomez. I assume he will be not-awful at some point, but he’s just been sitting on my bench so far!

Brad Johnson: Nothing else to be done for now

Sean: Have Desclafini and Bailey coming back off the DL soon. In which order should i drop Kyle Gibson, Chris Bassitt, Shane Greene? QS, k/bb extra categories.

Brad Johnson: Greene, Gibson

KB: Does Addison Russell ever enter the Top 5 SS debate in fantasy?

Brad Johnson: Maybe someday

Brad Johnson: not this year

Joe: Do you believe in Hector Santiago?

Brad Johnson: I believe he’s a borderline hold in a 12 team mixed. Better as a streamer

Alex: Is there any value in Tyler Chatwood in a 16 team league? Maybe just for starting him away from Coors?

Brad Johnson: Yes

Brad Johnson: Try it out

Benny: Wainwright going to rebound?

Brad Johnson: I think so. Stuff still looked good

Existential Fan: 12-team mixed QS/K/H/S/ERA/WHIP…my staff is MadBum, Richards, Ventura, Odorizzi, Conley and Nola. Relief core is Jansen, Kimbrel, Soria, May and Zych. Can I sit comfy?

Brad Johnson: Yes, but always look to improve

T-bone: What say you about Nick Tropeano? Can he stick in the rotation all season and be good?

Brad Johnson: He should stick, but good is a little much. Serviceable?

Kenny: Would you trade Yoan Moncada for Aroldis Chapman in a keep forever league? Closers are hard to come by.

Brad Johnson: No. Hard no. Better to struggle with Jeanmars and Hoovers

First Time Poster: Just traded Fowler and Zimmerman (SP) for Marte and Santana (gonna drop him immediately) in a 12 team keeper points league. I liked Fowler a lot coming in… but Marte is Marte!

Brad Johnson: Kudos

Josh: Why do you consider pitching to be a bigger deal in H2H? Doesn’t streaming offset it a bit?

Brad Johnson: At least the H2H’s I participate in, there are very few stream-quality SP available

VFart: So at this point is Harper = Kershaw + Decent bat?

Brad Johnson: Yes, but nothing excessive

B-Dubya: Trying to figure out my MI Situation. 12 team league. Pick two please: howie kendrick, Brock Holt, Scooter Gennett, Devon Travis (on my DL currently).

Brad Johnson: I’d let Howie go eventually. For now, stay on the mix and match game

First Time Poster: Just scooped Desmond off the WW in my 14 teamer (2C, MI, CI). Worth holding? I am waiting on Kang to join Ketel Marte and Odor up the middle.

Brad Johnson: As long as you’re not expecting anything now

Joe: Since you’re obviously concerned about Felix, what kind of bat would you target for him in a points league?

Brad Johnson: Still looking to sell him at full price.

Andrew: King Felix or Wainwright in 2016?

Brad Johnson: push

Steve: Aaron Sanchez or Joe Ross? Which would bring back more if paired with Trumbo in a classic ‘sell high’

Brad Johnson: Sanchez and Sanchez

Jacob: Does A. Diaz have a permanent role in STL? Even after Peralta returns?

Brad Johnson: Could depend on Wong

Brad Johnson: if he continues to scuffle Diaz will take that job

Brad Johnson: otherwise, they’ll have another crowd to deal with

Brad Johnson: too early to worry

Avi: Is Conforto the best hitter the Mets have going forward or is Neil Walker somehow going to shock everyone with 20+ HR?

Brad Johnson: What about Yo or Grandy or Duda?

Luke Gregerson: Possibility of me keeping the closer job for the entire season?

Brad Johnson: 45%

Chris: Prefer Jose Fernandez or Thor in a H2H Points dynasty league?

Brad Johnson: Thor

Brad Johnson: Kershaw, Thor, Scherzer

Steve: Odds that Pollock comes back this year? I can keep him (crazy value) but could use some help now and he’s a good trade chip.

Brad Johnson: 10%

Texas Toast: Would you break the bank on Mazara in an AL-only league? Do you see him staying in the starting lineup all year?

Brad Johnson: Risky with their OF depth

Thomas: Fielder o/u 25 HRs + 90 RBIs?

Brad Johnson: under/over

Brad Johnson: Please don’t repeat questions.

Joe: Worried about Harvey in a dynasty? Also have Felix on same team. 12tm roto dynasty. Would you move Felix & Berrios for Stras or Felix and Devers for Arrieta. Trying to win this year.

Brad Johnson: Wouldn’t deal Devers. And I worry about Stras and Arrieta long term

Brad Johnson: Couple more…

Pat: What non-closer RP are worth starting a 10 team (start 9 pitchers) 5×5 roto league?

Brad Johnson: Betances

Brad Johnson: that’s it for now. There will be others

Marc: Have no need for another starter, but is adding Santiago and hoping to flip him/another starter a good move?

Brad Johnson: Nah, it’s not worth the effort

Joe: One long time keeper league I have Greinke, Harvey, Bum, Felix, and Kluber. How concerned should I be?

Brad Johnson: Ha! Sorry for ya. Good luck transitioning.

Jordan: Where do you rank Chris Davis overall in a 5×5 H2H with OBP instead of AVG? What type of pitcher would be a fair target?

Brad Johnson: Very high. I’m on the bandwagon. I’d be looking for a top pitcher outside the top 3 (Kerhsaw, Thor, Scherzer)

Brad Johnson: And final question because it’s a doozy

Jackie T. : Trade Story for Seager (LAD) in a keeper? For this year only?

Brad Johnson: So here’s the thing about Story. He has a real K problem. The power is also very real and he has Coors to help with both. He has 30 HR with a 40 HR ceiling, 10-20 SB, and big run production. The average will hurt

Brad Johnson: Seager doesn’t have much power or speed by comparison. Something like 16 HR and 3 SB. Much better potential for AVG/OBP production and slightly worse run production

Brad Johnson: In the real world, I take Seager. In fantasy, it’s Story now and long term

Brad Johnson: GG folks