Brad Johnson Baseball Chat – May 9, 2017

Brad Johnson: Alright, let’s get this going. I’m watching A.J. Griffin to see if I can spot anything positive aside from this stat line.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Ignoring the economics of feasible markets, how many expansion teams does the level of talent support before a noticeable drop-off in product? The White Sox and Reds, for instance, are showing us that a team does not have to be infinitely better than a Triple-A club since rebuilding is more acceptable and losing can be chic as well.

Brad Johnson: Personally, I think MLB is doing it all wrong. League should be a good 40 teams deep with a starker divide between AL and NL.

Brad Johnson: I don’t buy this market nonsense either

Brad Johnson: Sure, teams like the Yankees and Cubs will always be at a huge advantage over a Charlotte or Durham, but revenue sharing can solve that

Henry: Did Gausman figure it out or should we still be worried?

Brad Johnson: Who had Ryan Rua in the HR pool?

Brad Johnson: Getting back to the question, I’d worry about Gausman until he has multiple good outings in a row

Hannah Hochevar: While you watch AJG, curious if you could rank him with these other AL-Only SPs: Miley, Boyd, Karns, JC Ramirez, J Montgomery. Thanks!

Brad Johnson: He’s after all of them, almost regardless of what I see

Dan: Curious how popular these chats are. How many questions do you currently have queued up?

Brad Johnson: I answer less than 10% of the questions I’m asked, and I average nearly one per minute

Brad Johnson: if not better than 1 per minute

Kyle: Are you concerned with the big drop in contact % for Jose Bautista?

Brad Johnson: Oh yea. He might be done done. He might also pull a Desmond and return to life.

Minty: Do Gleybarr or Devers make the majors this year, either for more than 10 PA?

Brad Johnson: I think so, but it depends on a club need and performance.

Jason: Which of these “falling knife” pitchers are you trying to catch? Maeda, Harvey, Shoemaker

Brad Johnson: they’re all guys who I want to be streamers but are too popular to actually streaming

Brad Johnson: my least favorite pitching profile

Dave Dombrowski: Time for Devers yet? 3B is a black hole offensively and defensively.

Brad Johnson: Rafael Devers is hitting OK-ish in Double-A. Nothing about his performance say he’s MLB ready. In particular, way too many whiffs for the level (11.2% SwStr)

David: Thoughts on Nate Karns?

Brad Johnson: Nice spot starter. I used him yesterday against a weak opponent

Brad Johnson: Not someone I want to own outside of 20 team or AL Only

weezy: I’m in a 12 team roto 6×6 (IP, OPS as extra 2) with 5 bench spots. How do you prefer using your bench spots? non-closer relief guys like Kahnle? Meh starters to get more innings? carry any extra position players?

Brad Johnson: It’s entirely situational. I have rosters using my bench in all those ways.

rustydude: 1st yr Ottoneu player. As a contender, is it better to ask for loan money in return for high priced stars or dump in bad players from your own roster into the trade?

Brad Johnson: Generally speaking, all trades will involve matching funds. You can use unbalanced payments to bridge any valuation gaps. I’m always happy to dump bad contracts, but sometimes you get more value by cutting them yourself

Cw: Bein/JPax/J. Odorizzi for T.Turner/Bellinger/J. Peraza which side you want in a 10 team keep forever? Pax side scares me w/ injuries…

Brad Johnson: Turner

Brad Johnson: even if the other 2 weren’t also good assets

MIller Time: JT Realmuto? For real? Or just hot?

Brad Johnson: Mostly just hot, doesn’t look substantially improved in any fundamental way.

there is no spoon: Hiya Brad. My average is brutal. Do I trade odor/aj ramos/Estrada for cueto and e suarez? Or do I trade odor/ramos/beltran for jose Ramirez and mcullers?
Or do I sit tight?

Brad Johnson: I like the Ramirez scenario more. They’re both solid trades.

Oddball Herrera: Level of worry about Mazara? We’ve been pending his adjustment since about mid 2016…

Brad Johnson: I’ve said all along that it’s going to be a work in progress. Fantasy owners want instant gratification, but it usually takes multiple healthy years to adapt to the majors

Brad Johnson: same comments apply to Maikel Franco

Hater: This chat sucks

Brad Johnson: Good talk

Guest: Brad would you start lackey tonight in h2h categories league? start of the early game makes me lean towards nooooo

Brad Johnson: No. Very no.

weezy: thoughts on Joey Gallo? Does he keep playing every day in June/beyond?

Brad Johnson: Getting a few Gallo questions. He’s surprised me with his viability. I see no reason why they wouldn’t keep trotting him out there in some capacity. The DH is currently whatever OF isn’t starting

Byron: Am I ever going to turn it around? K rate down and BB rate up but I’m still not hitting…..

Brad Johnson: You’ve been hitting OKish lately

Brad Johnson: like 100 wRC+ quality

Sonny: Greg Bird dropped in my dynasty league, drop Bautista for him?

Brad Johnson: Get Bird, not positive Bautista is your best cut though. Surely, there’s a lower quality asset on your roste.

Baryolo Cologne: QS IP league…Start Morton and Shark today right?

Brad Johnson: Ayup

Josh DC: So Shoe cuttable in my 12 team? picked up Morton to stream today but can drop Shoe instead to keep my streaming going… also have Velasquez…

Brad Johnson: I think so. That’s how I’m using him. If someone else wants to sit on fantasy average numbers, fine by me

David: Does Shoemaker right the ship? BB/9 is over 4 so far this year. HRs are up too. Tough to hold in a 12 team league at this point.

Brad Johnson: Splitterballers are always going to be inconsistent

weezy: wow, Griffin’s throwing 87 and getting whiffs…

Brad Johnson: Surprisingly, running a chat is counter productive to noticing any non-home runs

Moltar: If we were to redraft today, would Lindor be a first rounder?

Brad Johnson: Maybe not. Just because there are so many huge performers

Brad Johnson: Like, who’s moved out of the 1st round? I can’t really think of anyone. Correa?

Brad Johnson: That’s about it

rustydude: How many games per week will Reynolds play once Dahl returns, assuming he keeps hitting productively?

Brad Johnson: I’m not convinced Dahl will return straight to the MLB roster.

Brad Johnson: He’ll be asked to rake in Triple-A again before he gets another chance. Or if injuries force a move

Brad Johnson: Remember, he has 68 PA in Triple-A

Brad Johnson: And the Rockies roster is effective as is. No sense pushing him into a tough role straight from injury

Jason: Are you materially worried about Miggy’s health? He seems to battle through every year, but he ain’t gettin younger

Brad Johnson: It’s about time for VMart to get thrown to the curb so Miggy can stay on the field.

Brad Johnson: Once he’s DH, I think he’ll be fine

Zankou: In a 12-team h2h league, how many SPs actually warrant a permanent roster spot? Is it 30 and the rest are streamers? 40? 50? More?

Brad Johnson: It’s tricky because there’s an answer I’d like to be true, and then there’s what you actually need to do for game theory purposes

Brad Johnson: I hate having to roster any one between replacement level and league average, but you must take a shot on some of them. Or spend 70% of your budget on SP. I actually did that in 2 leagues with great success so far

Chuck N Chino: why don’t the CHW just play Matt Davidson and see what he can do? He HAS to be an upgrade over Asche, right? And if he does well, they deal Davidson.

Brad Johnson: He’s certainly an upgrade, but I think his good results stem from smart usage

Brad Johnson: He’s a fly ball hitter who can’t make contact with bendy stuff

Turp: QS league…Stroman or Cahill?

Gabe: Morton or Cahill? I know u luv Mort but is Cahill making you believe?

Brad Johnson: Stroman is looking pretty iffy. I have faith he’ll get it together eventually. If you need help now, Cahill looks sharper. I do still prefer Morton if only because Cahill’s stuff and command are at least a full grade below his. Use ’em both if you can

Lightning: Two teams both contenders in an On base percentage keeper (keep 8 at price drafted). Can aquire Lindor ($23) for Bryant ($66). I’d be getting worse short term but have more money for auction draft next year. Bryant would go for around the same if not more so he’d be kept. Basically, as a championship contender, should I sacrifice some talent now for a better future situation?

Brad Johnson: I’d only make that trade if you’re suffering at SS. If so, it’s fine

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t stress too much over the auction implications. All budgets are manageable.

benj: Are you seeing enough from Keon Broxton to start buying shares again? Assuming you were selling in the first place.

Brad Johnson: Mostly been stashing from the waiver wire. Then shinier bits drift past

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Still high on Kendall Graveman?

Brad Johnson: No, I said at the time that he might have me fooled for a third straight year. He fooled me again.

Brad Johnson: He may be marginally better than last year which is something. Means he’s a younger Mike Leake in terms of stats

Minty: Are we overhyping Rosario for fantasy? Seems like a potentially very good real life player.

Brad Johnson: Very much agree with this sentiment. For Rosario to be a fantasy asset, he needs to play way beyond his minor league performances

Brad Johnson: However, that occurs more often than you’d think. See Judge, Aaron for an extreme, recent example

Dansby: I’m going to be fine right? SSS…..

Brad Johnson: Long term, yea. We always thought this could get ugly in 2017.

Brad Johnson: Braves fans need not worry. Redraft owners tho…

Blair: Joc or Conforto in OBP keeper? Both seem similar

Brad Johnson: Conforto by miles

Nick: Are SS less valuable in 10-12 team leagues now, because there are so many good ones? should I care much about position scarcity

Brad Johnson: The scarce positions are C, SP, and RP now

Brad Johnson: Especially in a 10-12 team format without MI/CI

StL Steve: In a 14 team 5×5 h2h, keep 15 forever where you’re in a massive rebuild, would you trade Encarnacion and/Thames for prospects like Urias, Robles, Senzel etc ir would you want more?

Brad Johnson: Trade EE for one of them and keep Thames

Henry: Andrew Benintendi will win a batting title in the next 5 years. Reasonable?

Brad Johnson: So will Howie Kendrick

Brad Johnson: I mean sure. It passes a smell test. But there’s always going to be that fluky guy who hits .340 while he bats .310

weezy: when people ask you generic value/trade questions, what is your default fantasy league? A 12 team 5×5 roto?

Brad Johnson: pretty much

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Over/under on five more big league starts for Jered Weaver this year? Career?

Brad Johnson: I have a different question…

Brad Johnson:

Moelicious: What does the Dodgers rotation look like next week? Does Wood make the cut?

Brad Johnson: Wood HAS to make the cut after these last few starts. He’s looked so good. Better than Kershaw even.

moe: Late choice for this week only.5×5 mixed weekly 10tm. E Inciarte 5gms or Abreu 6gms Thanks

Brad Johnson: Inciarte

Sonny: what’s your performance cutoff when deciding stream or keep in shallow leagues?

Brad Johnson: Tough to answer that in any helpful way, so many factors involved. For instance, I’ve been holding Jordan Montgomery while streaming Matt Boyd even though they’re the same asset class

Rob: Does the 40% hard contact rate with Morton not make you hesitate with him or with all other peripherals are you riding with confidence ?

Brad Johnson: I’ve said this a few times, Morton’s command tends to go sour in the middle innings. It’s been less of a problem in the last two starts which may be an indication he’s building stamina

weezy: I’m last in steals in a 14 teamer with obp… Hernan Perez is still out there. Is he better than Asdrubal or Jose Reyes?

Brad Johnson: I’d take him over banged up Asdrubal

Darth V: What current minor leaguer, other than Moncada, do you see making a big splash in the next month or so?

Brad Johnson: A lot of you are asking for minor league takes. I literally have nobody on my radar, including Moncada, Rhys Hoskins, and Austin Meadows. I don’t anticipate any minor leaguer making a big splash this season

Brad Johnson: Gallo bomb diggity

Brad Johnson: MOON ball

Brad Johnson: Now, to clarify, some minor leaguers are going to come to the majors and go wild. It will happen. But in a predictable sense like Benintendi or Bregman last year, I’m just not seeing anyone

Villar Trooper: Traded Trumbo for Salazar? 16 team 6×6 h2h league (OPS & Holds). How’s I do??

Brad Johnson: I like it. I’m telling people my SP are worth more than comparably talented hitters. I can find a billion hitters on the wire. Yonder Alonso JUST getting picked up even though I’ve owned him since week 1. LoMo still ignored entirely

Brad Johnson: So I’m keen to convert Trumbos into Salazars

Rasta: Sell Aaron Judge to get Adrian Beltre in 12 tm H2H? Looking for more reliable playoff option

Brad Johnson: Uh, no.

Brad Johnson: Super old Beltre needs to show he’s in top form before meriting that kind of consideration. Treat Judge as a 2nd round talent

Brad Johnson: A rich man’s Giancarlo

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Zach Britton dropped. Have a full DL, but in theory have an open roster spot that I use for streamers. I *have* to grab him, right?

Brad Johnson: Yes, I think so

Brad Johnson: Unless you’re flush on saves, then weep for the lost opportunity and move on

KD: Do i sell low on Villar for Lamb or hold on?

Brad Johnson: I’m ok with that if you’re fine with SB

Kenton: Danny Duffy was just dropped in our 10-teamer. Still worth an every day roster spot (as opposed to a streamer) in a league this shallow?

Brad Johnson: eh…that’s a guy who lives in that space between worth a spot and actually available on the wire

Moelicious: Thoughts on Aaron Nola? He is out there in a lot of leagues

Brad Johnson: Same deal with Nola.

The Kyd: I think the pitch to Gallo took longer to get to the plate than Gallo’s homer took to leave the yard.

Brad Johnson: I don’t know. It was almost too high. Really couldn’t get any higher and leave the park

Brad Johnson: 😀

Brad Johnson: Y’all think Mat Latos is worse than Weaver or Bronson

Brad Johnson: Unbalded only get 3 of 68 votes

Baller McCheese: Are there any minor leaguers *off* your radar that you think might make a big splash this season?

Brad Johnson: Excellent question. I’ll alert a technician to update my radar

Adam: How do you rank Matt Moore, Joe Ross, Perdomo for ROS?

Brad Johnson: Ok, I’ll bite. Adam’s asked me a good dozen times about these three. I don’t have any insights into Moore and Ross except to say that Moore is effectively wild at his best and Ross never had a good starter’s profile

Brad Johnson: Perdomo is interesting in a long term sense. Lots of ground balls and enough whiffs to be something. Just need to polish some aspects of his usage

Brad Johnson: Not sure he’ll ever be a good option in 2017, but keep him in the back of your mind

Nerle: Aaron Hicks 10-team good?

Brad Johnson: Finally! I’ve been waiting for some version of this question

Brad Johnson: I noticed that other day that Hicks has top 10 worst soft contact and below average hard contact. That tells me the bad kind of regression is coming

Brad Johnson: beyond just saying his video game numbers aren’t sustainable in reality

Brad Johnson: So no, I’d pass on Hicks

KD: buy low on sonny gray in a dynasty?

Brad Johnson: How low? I’ll give ya Sam Dyson. Maybe Guillermo Heredia.

Willie Mays Hayes: Have Ryan Zimmerman in a 10-teamer but need starting pitching. In order to get a sense of value, what do you think is a fair one-for-one deal?

Brad Johnson: Less than Chris Sale, more than Danny Salazar.

Brad Johnson: I’d be pushing Kluber or Arrieta at you. Flawed aces.

Brad Johnson: Your success may be very league dependent. A lot of people remember all his injuries, even if they’re willing to buy into his late breakout

Steve: Bruce for Turner in a league where Ks dont count. Which side do you prefer? 12 teamer, H2H points

Brad Johnson: Justin? Yeah, Justin

Steve: 12 man H2H, QS over W, can I survive with this pitching staff: 5 starters – CarMart, Archer, Morton, Samardzija, Eddy Rodriguez, 2 closers – Davis (CHC), Diaz, 4 elite relievers – Devenski, Archie Bradley, J Wilson, Knebel

Brad Johnson: Looks fine to me with the RP help

Steve: Can Pineda be trusted or will he do what he always does?

Brad Johnson: No, don’t trust Pineda. Prep the antacid

McLovin: I have Contreras at C…he doesn’t play every day and hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire this season…better days coming or should I go find a catcher? Avila, Bandy are among C’s available in my 10 teamer.

Brad Johnson: In a 10 teamer, you should have quite a few options. Stream Brewers guys if it’s same day moves. Bandy doesn’t play enough to own outright

Nickles: Gausman for Joc Pedersen in a 13 team league. Hicks is on the wire.

Brad Johnson: thumbs up

Adam: 10-team 5×5 redraft. Trade Andrew Miller and Pujols for Buster?

Brad Johnson: Sure. If you’re sitting on a terrible catcher.

Joey: Is Victor Robles in a tier above guys like Kyle Tucker, Vlad Jr., Acuna?

Brad Johnson: Yes. Acuna could climb there. Robles was once in his shoes

Aledmys Diaz: So was my season last year a fluke despite so many people buying into what I was doing when I had no previous track record of being that good in the minors?

Brad Johnson: Well, what he was doing looked sustainable. What he’s doing now is decidedly less good. Still sustainable in a league average sense

Vinny Chase: Would you buy verrrrry low on Jackie Bradley Jr? He’s been unlucky some but those are scary numbers.

Brad Johnson: I’d buy medium low too

Kevin: Senzatela having another good start against the Cubs in Colorado. Worth a pickup in a 12 team league?

Brad Johnson: I’m not buying Senzatela until somebody tells me he’s the Rich Hill of sliders. That’s not what’s happening. I have no idea why he’s succeeding with his stuff. It’s not deception.

McLovin: Would you start lackey in a rotisserie league?

Brad Johnson: NO

Brad Johnson:

Joey: You indicated to get Bird… are you bullish on him in a 12-team league? Future top-10 first baseman bullish?

Brad Johnson: I think that was a dynasty setting. Not so thrilled about 2017. He’ll have his moments eventually. Look at the top 10 1B though. They’re really good (and really NL skewed)

Chuck N Chino: Trade Gsellman for Phil Hughes in 20 team dynasty?

Brad Johnson: No, don’t do that to yourself

Joey: Curious if you see a clear top two out of Maeda, Robbie Ray and Drew Pomeranz?

Brad Johnson: Very clearly Ray and Pom. They’re both great. Over 9 K/9. Occasional pain.

Yoyoma: Hurting for SB, bad. I have some fliers, Carlos Gomez, Margot, J. Reyes, and have Betts, but have been terribly unlucky (Correa & Harper aren’t running). Trying to target someone like Dyson, but do not see that worthy of paying say, Hanley Ramirez. I just picked up Hicks in hopes he runs too, any other suggestions. I also have Dahl & Haniger when they return but don’t want to fall too far back SB wise.

Brad Johnson: Hmm, SBs are a little thin on the wire. Maybe try to buy low on Peraza or Eduardo Nunez?

Brad Johnson: Don’t buy Jarrod, he’s terrible in all other ways

Moelicious: What’s wrong with Lackey? K:BB look good

Brad Johnson: Coors Field

Brad Johnson: And he’s been struggling with homers at sea level

Moelicious: Trevor Story showing some signs of life recently. Better times ahead or will he continue to whiff and pop-up prodigiously?

Brad Johnson: Whiffs and pop ups will remain a problem. He’ll also have his seven home run weeks at some point

Adam: Persistence! Thanks for the SP answer. If you ran the Pirates, would you DL Polanco for a couple weeks to see if the shoulder can heal up?

Brad Johnson: Probably, but they’re already hurting for depth

Brad Johnson: They’re probably trying to “contend”

rustydude: Odubel Herrera was rated fairly high by FG staff as OF. Do you feel he is underperforming or is this who he is?

Brad Johnson: Mostly who he is. He’ll be maybe 10% better RoS

Brad Johnson: his numbers are fine and he has a nice role. It’s just that everybody is hitting at a 50 HR pace

Chico: Stras + X = Miggy. Solve for X

Brad Johnson: Xavier Cedeno?

Brad Johnson: Xander Bogaerts is too much

Brad Johnson: I think that’s a pretty even swap while he remains banged up and unproductive

Brad Johnson: you’ll obviously have to pay more if you prefer to wait for him to perform first

Tim: Pujols/Vargas for Pollock/Manaea, who ya got?

Brad Johnson: Pollock by a landslide

Brad Johnson: super lopsided

Brad Johnson: Pollock is the Villar of 2017

Brad Johnson: Also the Villar of 2015

Brad Johnson:

Tim: So my staff has McCullers, Ray, Pineda and Salazar. In related news, I lead the league in both Ks and high blood pressure. Which guy do you think I should look to move for some better rates stability?

Brad Johnson: I think you try to find Chris Devenski, Andrew Miller, or other ratios stablizing RP. Keep the indigestion

Erick: What’s your outlook on Jon Gray in dynasty leagues? Good buy-low opportunity?

Brad Johnson: Sure, if someone is actually selling low

Blackmon, Charlie: Hey Brad. Am I going to steal more bases than I get caught stealing?

Brad Johnson: Well yea, but you’re not going to steal very many bases. Why are you running anyway, your offense is too good

Joey: Follow up: would you rank Pomeranz, Robbie Ray and Alex Wood?

Brad Johnson: Ah, that’s hard, they’re all the same asset class

Brad Johnson: Wood will throw the fewest innings most likely

Brad Johnson: Ok, time for me to wrap this up

Steve: Do you think Lucroy will turn it around?

Brad Johnson: Yes, I’m sticking with him

Paul Newman: David Price is gonna kill it when he comes back. I feel it.

Brad Johnson: Ok

Adam: Do the Phillies let it ride on Altherr in the OF when Howie K returns (and potentially let Howie give Joseph a break at 1b)?

Brad Johnson: I’ll be disgruntled if Altherr doesn’t continue to play every day. He may be their best player

Tony: Paul dejong is looming in triple A playing shortstop for the red birds. Is he playing 3rd this year for the cardinals?

Brad Johnson: Not so long as Gyorko and Wong continue hitting well. Jhonny will be back some day too and Greg Garcia is solid.

bargain hunter: JBJ vs. Peraza. Same asset class?

Brad Johnson: No, JBJ tops

Todd Frazier : Todd Frazier

Brad Johnson: mmm hmm

Greg: Are the Tigers and D-Backs really going to try to run K-Rod and Rodney out there all season and hope nobody notices?

Brad Johnson: Seems like it

Just saying…: If Justin Verlander takes Kate Upton’s last name, he’ll be Justin Upton.

Yabba Dabba: Who would you rather have ROS, slighty dinged-up Braun or more dinged-up Miggy?