Brad Johnson Baseball Chat – May 16, 2017
Here’s today’s chat transcript.
3:45 |
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3:45 |
: If you were forced to, which of these second basemen would you cut?
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3:46 |
Which to Cut?
Logan Forsythe (42.2% | 41 votes)
Ben Zobrist (57.7% | 56 votes)
Total Votes: 97
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3:48 |
: do you have high hopes for Zimmer during his call up?
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3:48 |
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3:49 |
: I don’t expect him to do particularly well in his first taste of the majors. These big swing-and-miss profiles usually take awhile to adjust.
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3:50 |
: But these things can be hard to predict. Sometimes pitchers throw into a hitter’s nitro zone while the scouting report is getting built
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3:50 |
: Take Hunter Renfroe or Trey Mancini for example.
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3:50 |
: Zimmer could totally do something like that.
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3:50 |
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3:51 |
: Which side do you prefer, and is it close? Degrom/Yelich or Sale/Herrera?
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3:51 |
: Sale, and it’s very close
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3:52 |
: Still hung up on your Votto acquisition earlier. Felt like “humble-bragging” about taking advantage of a league mate. But just to show that there are all types in a fantasy league, the guy with Votto in my league said, “Can’t trade him; Harold Reynolds said he could hit .400 this year.”
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3:52 |
: Honestly, everybody likes that trade a lot more for me than I do
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3:52 | : For reference, you can see the swap in today’s TDG. |
3:53 |
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3:53 |
: Im having a hard time gauging the trade value of (my) David Dahl. Should I be treating him essentially the same as a top 5 prospect, like a Moncada?
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3:54 |
: I’ll be honest, I’m struggling with the same. In the league mentioned above, I have Dahl taking a bench spot since a billion players are injured. Plus 3 active OFers. So I want to trade him but I’m not getting any nibbles
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3:55 |
: You’ll probably have to wait for him to return.
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3:55 |
: Zack Godley or Kendall Graveman
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3:55 |
: Fun question. I just mass cut Graveman for Godley in almost all my leagues
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3:55 |
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3:55 |
: Is there a real resource for finding out when a AAA player might get the call, or are we all pretty much in the dark?
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3:56 |
: Twitter?
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3:56 |
: I mean, the warning is typically 1 day tops. Other than that, look at MiLBers who are performing like big leaguers and teams with gaping holes
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3:56 |
: Is Zobrist still useful as a 12tm MIF?
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3:57 |
: Kinda sorta, that’s boiled into the question I asked for the poll
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3:57 |
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3:58 |
: I trust the numbers will be there in the end, but his usual numbers grow less exciting by the year.
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3:58 |
: Do I take over the closer role at some point this year? Is it someone like Hoover or de la rosa? Or are we stuck with Rodney?
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3:58 |
: I really don’t think we’ll see Bradley close
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3:59 |
: they want him to pull a Carrasco, not get stuck in the ninth inning
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4:00 |
: It’s hard to justify moving a guy from elite closer to mid-tier starter
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4:00 |
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4:00 |
: What’s chris taylor’s role once forsythe returns? While he does hit more GB than you’d like he is hitting the ball hard.
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4:01 |
: I keep dropping a Justin Turner comp just because the situation is similar. With the frequency with which players are injured, Taylor will usually have some kind of most-days role
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4:01 |
: so long as he keeps hammering the ball
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4:01 |
: Velazquez, Harvey or use the spot to stream? 12-team roto
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4:01 |
: eww. Depends on the streaming options. Can you Godley? Or even Jordan Montgomery?
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4:02 |
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4:03 |
: Very similar. I think I go Castellanos. The floor is comparable and the ceiling is higher. The Tigers also just morphed from a Triple-A lineup to one of the best in the league over the last week
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4:03 |
: PS, y’all think I should cut Zobrist. Next poll…
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4:03 |
Which to Roster RoS?
Nick Castellanos (81.6% | 80 votes)
Mike Moustakas (18.3% | 18 votes)
Total Votes: 98
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4:03 |
: re: poll… Forsythe is being propped up by a huge BABIP and is striking out nearly 30% of the time. Zobrist’s .253 BABIP seems to point more towards bad luck while his K% and BB% are both good
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4:04 |
: I’ll skip forward to the present after this post from 3:48.
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4:04 |
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4:04 |
: Tiny sample and he’s not going to continue striking out or .400 BABIPing
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4:05 |
: Zobrist may actually be turning into a low BABIP guy. It happens with age sometimes. I do think he’ll rebound while maintaining a useful role in the CHC lineup
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4:05 |
: When will my Carter pitch in the major leagues again?
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4:06 |
: Probably after he looks like he can survive in Triple-A. They sent him back to extended ST because he was a mechanical mess
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4:06 |
: anybody surprised?
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4:07 |
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4:07 |
: O’Day next.
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4:07 |
: Bautista breaking out of his slump or just a hot streak?
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4:07 |
: Aren’t those the same?
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4:07 |
: That’s an example of one of those unhelpful answers I’m so frequently criticized for.
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4:07 |
: And that’s an example of an ugly sentence
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4:08 |
: I don’t know what to do with Julio Teheran – he’s eating up a roster spot right now but I really don’t see him being exciting at all this year. Ok to drop him in a 12-team?
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4:08 |
: Yep. He’s one of those guys who won’t last on the waiver wire even though he’s indistinguishable from a Jordan Monty or Nate Karns
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4:08 |
: But who cares. You need those spots to be active
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4:08 |
: I’m pretty well off at 3b(machado, Longo, nunez, Bregamn, Donaldson on dl) and in the outfield (Puig, Nunez, Bellinger, Beltran, Schwarber, Altherr, Benintedi, Mazara, Dahl on dl, O’neill minors, and Meadows minors. I could use some starting pitching. Hoping to consolidate talent a bit. It’s a 10 person H2H league. What pitchers would you be targeting with in my situation? I did notice the guy with Degrom needs some outfield help. Could I build a decent package without sacrificing too much with what I have?
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4:09 |
: This is roughly the same number of words as I’ve typed all chat. Gimme 5 minutes…
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4:09 |
: well, that’s a couple thousand 3B for what I assume is 3-4 lineup spots
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4:10 |
: So yes, you can try to start a package with Longo+ for deGromulent
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4:10 |
: Good reading comp on my part 🙂
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4:11 |
: Same goes for OFers. Try Puig first imo
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4:11 |
: NL-only. If I give up Arrieta, can I get back Greinke plus another usable piece? Or is that being too greedy?
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4:11 |
: You can try…no harm in that
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4:11 |
: I kinda doubt you can even get Greinke
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4:11 |
: and as much crap as everyone’s giving Arrieta, he’s failed some very tough assignments
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4:12 |
: you want an ace to convert those starts, but I’m not ready to call him a bum
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4:12 |
: Logan Morrison or Tommy Joseph?
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4:12 |
: Right now, it’s Tommy Joseph. He’s super hot and super streaky. Reminds me, I have some Morrison-Joseph swaps to make tonight
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4:12 |
: Is a cheap Gsellman extremely droppable in Ottoneu?
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4:13 |
: I sold a $5 GMan for $5 ($10 net)
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4:13 |
: Who is closing games for Angels one month from now?
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4:13 |
: Troy Percival
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4:13 |
: Is it possible the Brewers are really on to something an Jesus Aguilar is a very good hitter?
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4:13 |
: It is possible
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4:13 |
: he’s looked the part, but it’s hard to get him in the lineup
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4:14 |
: Thames may be rapid trade bait at the deadline though
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4:14 |
: He’s already looking like a DH, healthy-wise
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4:14 |
: sat yesterday because his legs are jello
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4:14 |
: Joe Biagini worth scooping up in a 12 team? Wins will be tough but the GB%, low BB% and HR suppression look nice. His 2016/2017 stats are pretty.
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4:15 |
: I think he’s a streamer. I’ve been recommending him for ratios. So far so good. Recommended him again tomorrow. We’ll see!
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4:15 |
: Pick the worst of the following: Berrios, Ray, Pomeranz and Bundy.
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4:15 |
: The last I heard of Pom, he was leaving an outing with an injury
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4:15 |
: I shall return shortly
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4:16 |
: Sounds like he’ll avoid the DL in the short term, but I’ll bet he lands on it in the long term
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4:16 |
: Might still take him over Berrios
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4:17 |
: Berrios will either make you look very smart or very stupid
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4:17 |
: Brach for Cesar Hernandez? I need MI and he needs RP… leading sv/hds although wire is crap for RP…
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4:17 |
: Yes, that’s fine
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4:18 |
: Brach may be on the way out in Baltimore. Numbers aren’t great despite the shiny high level stuff
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4:18 |
: I need a Utility player, who will be better ROS; Reddick or Alonso?
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4:18 |
: Yonder Alonso is on your waiver wire?
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4:18 |
: I’m speechless
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4:19 |
: Anyway, go get him immediately
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4:19 |
: Cut literally anybody on your roster
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4:19 |
: Nick Castellanos overwhelming won the last poll
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4:20 |
: A bunch of people are asking about Edwin Diaz. I need to go research what’s happened over the last week. I do my bullpen analysis every Wednesday
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4:20 |
: I’ll be back
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4:20 |
: Will Edwin Diaz rebound or continue to struggle?
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4:20 |
: is edwin diaz broken? just traded for him to get a nice 4 BB outing on my WHIP
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4:20 |
: Edwin Diaz gonna lose his closership soon?
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4:20 |
: What’s up with Edwin Diaz? Would you try to trade him or do you think he settles?
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4:21 |
: what in the world happened to my command?
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4:21 |
: So…
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4:21 |
: there were always some weird red flags in his contact data from last year
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4:21 |
: the consensus was that we should ignore them because of strikeouts
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4:22 |
: Presently, I’m of the opinion that he’s a good buy low option. He had the weird 4 walk outing yesterday
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4:23 |
: maybe that’s a sign of injury, who can tell absent a report.
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4:23 |
: I think the HR are just a bit of flukiness
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4:23 |
: maybe he’s a bit homer prone like a better Neftali Feliz
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4:24 |
: If you own him, sit tight. If you don’t try to buy for peanuts – just to see
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4:24 |
: Injuries really starting to pile up. Is it worth still holding on to Dahl in a 12 team mixed?
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4:24 |
: I’m dancing on that fence too
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4:24 |
: I think so, but there’s a point where the opp cost is too steep
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4:24 |
: This weekend was Knebel. Who is the next pitcher to assume full-time closer duties?
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4:24 |
: could be Tony Zych if something’s wrong with Diaz
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4:25 |
: one more note on Diaz, they converted him to relief last season, but he seemingly has the stuff to start. If a demotion is required, he may switch roles again
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4:25 |
: Seattle is so flooded with SP injuries
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4:25 |
: Better add in 12-team mixed? Godley or Berrios?
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4:25 |
: I have a much better read on Godley
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4:25 |
: So that’s my pick
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4:26 |
: May well be Berrios. He’s proven very difficult to analyze. Wasn’t getting whiffs.
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4:26 |
: Is Trout top 3 best ballplayers of all time?
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4:26 |
: If you put all the best players of history on a field at their physical peak, Trout would make them all look like Odubel Herrera
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4:27 |
: That’s my theory anyway. If you let those same players benefit from modern training techniques, it may be a different story
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4:28 |
: Rank these 1B going ROS: Reynolds, Alonso, Bour, Joseph
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4:28 |
: Alonso, Bour/Joseph (depends on pref for floor or ceiling), Reynolds
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4:28 |
: Is Eickhoff worth owning in a 12 team or is he a streamer? Bad peripherals thus far
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4:28 |
: Julio Teheran class asset
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4:29 |
: Probably won’t sit on the wire even though he should
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4:29 |
: depends on your roster comp
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4:29 |
: What would bid on Zimmer, mixed league 5 OF $250 budget?
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4:29 |
: Can’t answer without knowing your league
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4:29 |
: Anywhere from $11 to $199
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4:29 |
: What is Marwin Gonzalez’s future? Will he become a part-time player as soon as he cools off?
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4:29 |
: Yep
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4:29 |
: If Seattle makes a closer change, is Cishek the man?
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4:31 |
: Has to be Tony Zych or Nick Vincent for now. Cishek isn’t going to get thrown straight into the fire
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4:31 |
: if Diaz hangs on another 7 to 10 days, then yea, probably Cishek
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4:31 |
: Marwin, Suarez, or Franco ROS?
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4:31 |
: Suarez
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4:31 |
: Keep 12 (2$ inflation), 12 team H2H roto just traded a 28$Goldy and 15$N.Walker for a 15$Arenado and 2$ V.Velasquez. I have 50$Miggy and 2$Bellinger to fill 1b, did I do the right thing?!?!
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4:32 |
: Looks fine to me. Got younger and cheaper in the first round
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4:32 |
: Walker doesn’t matter
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4:32 |
: Edwin DIaz!?!? Should I go alonso or hanley R.?
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4:32 |
: Alonso
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4:33 |
Which?
Yonder Alonso (18.5% | 10 votes)
Yonder Alonso (25.9% | 14 votes)
You Fool! (55.5% | 30 votes)
Total Votes: 54
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4:33 |
: Matt Harvey droppable in 16 teamer?
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4:33 |
: Maybe not quite
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4:33 |
: That’s pretty deep. You’re looking at what? Nick Pivetta? Bartolo Colon?
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4:33 |
: Wire has to be pretty gnarly
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4:34 |
: Better times for Robbie Ray ahead? That 5.16 BB/9 number is gross.
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4:34 |
: He’s a minus command, plus everything else guy. Kind of a left-handed Chris Archer without the consistency at home
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4:34 |
: Do you view Cesar Hernandez as a sell high or a legitimate breakout? Contact and walk rates are down from last year but the speed is real and only 1 CS this season.
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4:34 |
: He’s legit
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4:34 |
: breakout happened last year though
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4:35 |
: and the 16 HR pace probably turns into 10 by season’s end
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4:35 |
: Yelich for khris Davis in OBP?
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4:35 |
: Do you need net 15 HR?
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4:36 |
: because that’s what you’re paying at the expense of all other categories except RBI
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4:36 |
: Playing for next year. Does Glasnow still have enough value to make Glasnow and a couple of pieces a decent return for Cespedes?
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4:36 |
: I don’t think so
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4:36 |
: I hate speculating on improvement at the expense of a monster like Cespedes
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4:36 |
: Glasnow is somebody you get for Neil Walker
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4:36 |
: or Jed Lowrie
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4:37 |
: some kind of core performer
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4:37 |
: Who will be the closer for the Pirates on August 1?
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4:37 |
: Felipe Rivero
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4:37 |
: You a fan of Billy Hamilton? Ran some numbers and I lag in only SB. Do you prefer SB by committee or one or two guys
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4:37 |
: I prefer to diversify, but I tend to ignore SB in draft
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4:38 |
: so sometimes I need those big totals to save the day
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4:38 |
: I do like Hamilton. He’s improving steadily
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4:38 |
: How would you rank the following ROS – Vince Velasquez, Matt Harvey, Zach Godley and Luis Perdomo?
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4:38 |
: Godley, Perdomo
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4:38 |
: Odds in 10 that Alex Gordon can rebound and be 2015 Gordon ROS?
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4:38 |
: i
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4:38 |
: I’m getting discouraged by Yelich. I understand he has a good floor especially in OBP leagues. But doesn’t look like he will try to lift. Time to move on in keepers?
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4:39 |
: Well…correct in that he won’t change his approach any time soon
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4:39 |
: as pitchers adjust to the fly ball revolution, Yelich’s performance will only improve
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4:39 |
: When do I call up Devers?
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4:39 |
: 2018 if I had my druthers
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4:40 |
: Over/under 30.5 homers for EE?
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4:40 |
: Under
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4:40 |
: Progressive Field is tough on RHH
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4:40 |
: Plus he has old man body
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4:40 |
: This the year to sell Miggy?
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4:40 |
: Could be, but not right now
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4:40 |
: Asked around in my 20 team dynasty and got some horrific offers
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4:40 |
: Puig over/under game – 25 hrs, 15 steals… what say you?
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4:41 |
: under/under
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4:41 |
: What is wrong with Shawn Kelley? Woof!
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4:41 |
: I’m guessing his UCL is withered
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4:41 |
: H2H OBP League. Jose Ramirez for Rich Hill and DJ LeMahieu?
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4:41 |
: Smells fine in either direction
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4:41 |
: lot of risk/reward on the Hill side
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4:41 |
: both those guys could outperform Ramirez RoS
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4:41 |
: but he’s the safer of the trio
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4:42 |
: Should I just drop Gio Gonzalez outright for Godley?
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4:42 |
: I would
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4:42 |
: I consider that to be an aggressive move though
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4:42 |
: I like to be aggressive, but I hesitate to impose that on others
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4:42 |
: Hold on to Alex wood in a quality starts league or try to sell high
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4:42 |
: Either
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4:43 |
: treat him as a top 15 SP
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4:43 |
: see if you get a nibble
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4:43 |
: What value does R Hill have? Top 30 sp moving forward? What type of bat can i get in exchange for him. H2H pts league.
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4:43 |
: That’s going to be ridiculously context specific
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4:43 |
: I can’t help you
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4:43 |
: Drop Glasnow for godley 14 tm keeper?
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4:43 |
: Definitely
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4:43 |
: No hesitation with this one
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4:43 |
: Did I miss something on Tony Watson? His walk rate is a little high, but so is his BABOP
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4:43 |
: Referring to the question about future Pirates closer?
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4:44 |
: He’s a FA after this season. It’s assumed he’ll be traded, hurt, or otherwise indisposed
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4:44 |
: To your comment about Felipe Rivero closing, do you think the Pirates may plug in a free agent to be like Nicasio to keep Rivero’s arbitration salary down?
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4:44 |
: Yes, it’s quite possible
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4:44 |
: Because, the Pirates
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4:44 |
: Thoughts on Hernan Perez? Entering must-own territory in 12-teamers?
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4:44 |
: He entered that before the season
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4:44 |
: briefly left for maybe 5 days
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4:44 |
: and has been there for the last month
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4:45 |
: Do you distrust some of the brewers offensive stats ytd because of their weak schedule so far?
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4:45 |
: Not exactly
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4:45 |
: I don’t know for a fact they’ve had a weak schedule. I tend to ignore that kind of thing
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4:45 |
: assuming you’re right, they’re still a volatile unit
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4:46 |
: lots of power and speed and strikeouts
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4:46 |
: it’s going to produce crooked numbers interspersed with goose eggs
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4:46 |
: Who is the worst active major leaguer with shot at the HOF? “Worst” being very relative here
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4:46 |
: Off the top of my head? Chase Utley? Historic 5 year peak for a 2B, but the rest of his career was pretty thin
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4:47 |
: Really think he should be a HOF though. Peak was right there with the best at the position
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4:47 |
: Follow up: if I trade Brach, any of these worth the pick up in11 team roto Hd+Sv league with k/9 as 6th ctaegory: Mike Dunn, Brett Cecil, Farquhar, Derek Law, Jacob Barnes, Arodys Vizcaino, Koji Uehara, Carl Edwards, Tyler Clippard, Jim Johnson, Anthony Swarzak… sorry for the long list… also Peraza just got dropped, thoughts?
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4:47 |
: I’ll short list that to Law (pending Melancon), JJ and Edwards
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4:48 |
: Vmart and Justin Wilson for Edwin in an AL-only league? Fair deal?
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4:48 |
: Works for me
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4:48 |
: Has King Felix warped into Vicente Padilla? Maybe he would benefit from adding a Eephus pitch at this point…basically is he droppable for someone like E Rod in a 5×5 12 team.
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4:48 |
: I can’t be the guy who tells you to drop Felix Hernandez. However, I would prefer to be starting ERod
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4:48 |
: Is there something wrong with Tanaka?
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4:48 |
: Talk to me about Tanaka Flocka Flame – should we be worried?
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4:49 |
: Of course you should be worried. His arm is soldered in place.
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4:49 |
: We’re seeing a pitcher who’s grasping at every straw to stay afloat
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4:49 |
: #MixedMetaphors
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4:49 |
: You all in on Morton?
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4:49 |
: Still am
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4:49 |
: is segura a >3 or <3 fWAR guy?
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4:49 |
: Above 3
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4:49 |
: Pivetta just a streamer or do you like the k rate?
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4:50 |
: I have him as an exploit
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4:50 |
: Has Domingo Santana lost his power?
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4:50 |
: Uh, no… He’s quite powerful
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4:50 |
: Time to wrap it up. The doggo says it’s his turn
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4:50 |
: What are your thoughts on Josh Bell? Long term can he crack top 15 1B? 10? He seems a little like the type of guy you could be still waiting to break out three years from now (Logan Morrison style)
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4:50 |
: I don’t disagree
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4:51 |
: There are things to like in the profile, but he might just be a background guy
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4:51 |
: Yonder Alonso 2.0?
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4:51 |
: Hadn’t heard of Godley til this chat – wondering now, would you drop any of these guys for him? Ray, T. Walker, Duffy? Or Neil Walker, if he’s a bench guy?
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4:51 |
: Well, I’m not going to tell you to roster 3 ARI SP
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4:51 |
: so keep Duffy
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4:51 |
: I might prefer him to Taiwan
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4:52 |
: (that was intentional)
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4:52 |
: Cespedes too much for Jose Ramirez in 10-team 3 OF dynasty league?
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4:52 |
: Maybe. Depends on needs. OF is a sucker’s game in that setting. You’re rostering 30-45 of them league wide and there are over 50 star OF
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4:53 |
: Domingo Santana or odubel Herrera ros
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4:53 |
: gimme Doobie
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4:53 |
: Am I wrong in thinking that T Shaw’s perceived value is being inflated by having one of his hot streaks right at the start of the season? His HR/FB and FB numbers seem out of whack from his career
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4:53 |
: Well, he has that cleanup role too. Really helps to have all those runs and RBI appended to his otherwise middling stats
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4:53 |
: it’s why Yangervis Solarte was a $10 player last year
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4:54 |
: without the cleanup role, he’s just another $1 guy
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4:54 |
: Hernan Perez or Jose Ramirez for MI?
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4:54 |
: Jose
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4:54 |
: Jones and Tanaka or Cargo and Cole
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4:54 |
: Cargo
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4:54 |
: alone
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4:54 |
: with Cole, it’s a heist
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4:54 |
: Do you like Godley better than Corbin?
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4:54 |
: Oh yea
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4:54 |
: Are my Qs getting through? Hello? Is this thing on?
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4:55 |
: You have no idea how many questions you guys ask
|
4:55 |
: What should we expect from Story when he returns?
|
4:55 |
: .220 average, crazy power
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4:55 |
: What are your exclusion criteria for chat questions? Because I’m batting .000 when it comes to getting responses.
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4:55 |
: I hate “rank these” lists
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4:56 |
: There are some players about whom I just don’t have a strong opinion
|
4:56 |
: so I’ll ignore them until I see them crop up a few times
|
4:56 |
: Is JC Ramirez going to rip it tonight or blow up like last time?
|
4:56 |
: I’m using him with some trepidation
|
4:56 |
: it’s always going to be risky. His fastball sucks.
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4:56 |
: breaking ball is real nice and used 40%
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4:56 |
: Tacos or Sandwich for lunch?
|
4:57 |
: Quesadilla yesterday, sandwiches last week
|
4:57 |
: smoothie today
|
4:57 |
: I’m 0 for 10 and have same name, plus didn’t ask rank questions
|
4:57 |
: I swear I answered one of yours
|
4:58 |
: sometimes I start mentally composing an answer and then… ooh shiny!
|
4:58 |
: R. Hill for Godley…who wins???
|
4:58 |
: Well…Hill if his leprosy doesn’t flare up
|
4:58 |
: Can you just manage my fantasy team for me?
|
4:58 |
: Email me, we’ll talk fees
|
4:58 |
: Dropped Shoemaker for Wood, right call? With Paxton coming off DL who do do I drop, Morton, Wood, Cueto, Lackey, Carassco
|
4:58 |
: Yes! And…Lackey?
|
4:59 |
: I don’t really want to cut any of them
|
4:59 |
: Maybe try to trade Cueto and a position player for a position upgrade
|
4:59 |
: Why are our hamstrings and groins so weak?
|
4:59 |
: I can’t speak to groins, but I have about six strained hamstrings right now
|
5:00 |
: see ya folks. Lightning round
|
5:00 |
: Buy, sell, hold in dynasty – Owings, Drury, Broxton
|
5:00 |
: Buy, sell, Buy
|
5:00 |
: Is Gardner’s bounce back for real? I’m enjoying the ride but I’m leery.
|
5:00 |
: Sorta kinda
|
5:00 |
: Are we all past the shock and is Trevor Cahill now considered a pretty good roto pitcher?
|
5:00 |
: Yep
|
5:00 |
: In a league that counts Ks against batters, would a $4 Inciarte or a $1 Broxton be better ROS?
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You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Would you drop Peralta for Zimmer?
I meant major topics like: talk about Bradley Zimmer. Not specific stuff.