Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 8/8/2017

Eric: Can Godley stop the Dodgers epic run or would you bench him?

Brad Johnson: I’m using him in DFS tonight, but that’s mostly a function of his low price tag on DraftKings. Godley handled the Dodgers not too long ago. You can start him against any team

Brad Johnson: That’s not to say there isn’t any downside or risk

Brad Johnson: but with the way this season’s gone, Godley vs. LAD is a better than average play

Dylan: What happened to Kintzler being the closer in Washington?

Brad Johnson: I don’t know. It’s certainly a surprising development to see Doolittle still closing. A welcome development at that – I grew up playing against Doolittle so I always find myself rooting for him

Brad Johnson: And he’s good enough to close, most clubs just prefer to have a righty doing the job when they have the choice. Plus Doo has some shoulder issues

Slapshot: Willson Contreras is a top ___ catcher going into 2018?

Brad Johnson: Let’s go conservative and say top 8. Could be higher. I don’t worry about these things during the season.

Frenchy: Think we see Robles(AA) or Gleyber(injured) in the majors first next year?

Brad Johnson: Even toss in my opinion. It’s going to depend on injuries or poor performance from the guys ahead of them

Taylor: Wood and peacock or kershaw? And would you rather have Justin Wilson or mychal givens in a holds league?

Brad Johnson: I’ll take Wilson

Brad Johnson: The other one’s a bit tricky since Kershaw’s timeline isn’t well known

Brad Johnson: I’m going to leave that up to you

Perd Furguson: Keep one of the following forever, no round or cost associated: Derek Fisher, Tommy Pham or Justin Smoak – 12tm roto

Brad Johnson: Not Pham.

Brad Johnson: Either you bet long term on Fisher becoming a top 5 round workhorse, or you play the hot hand and take a year or two from Smoak

Brad Johnson: he’s a top 5 1B this season!

Julio: Hey Brad, what’s your philiosphy on pitching keepers? I can keep 8 players and think I will only keep 1. I could keep a second over Devers (probably Wood or Nelson) but I am a little hesitant.

Brad Johnson: It tends to be league specific. Pitchers are the rare asset these days, but they also tend to disappear more often

dee’s nuts: How do you deal with league commissioners who are too overzealous  in vetoing trades in a dynasty league?  I was trading acuana, moncada and trea turner for degrom and ramirez.  More than likely I won’t be able to keep degrom or ramirez next year.

Brad Johnson: I insta-quit

Brad Johnson: Seriously though, I usually spend hours negotiating each trade. If a commissioner is just going to wipe that out because they don’t like it, I’ll drop the league

Brad Johnson: Hasn’t ever been an issue

Paul: Is Joey Gallo a legitimate fantasy option right now in a 5×5. He’s sort of been hitting for average lately

Brad Johnson: He’s been 12-team playable all season. You’re just going to suffer in that one category. And eventually the SB will go away too.

Matthew: Would you keep Fulmer (assuming clean bill of health) or Severino at the same price?

Brad Johnson: Fulmer, easy

Jansen: Where do you stand on Rafael Devers? Good start to his career.

Brad Johnson: It certainly is, I don’t have any meaningful insights about Devers yet

Brad Johnson: People keep asking, all I can say is he looks good and has a great pedigree. But I can’t tell if he’s a core player or a star

Nelson: With only 50 games left, how do you evaluate the value of upgrades? Like would you give a top prospect like Moncada/Brinson, etc in a keeper to get an unkeepable Cano if only as an upgrade over Chris Taylor?

Brad Johnson: You’re assuming Cano is actually an upgrade over Taylor. When swapping keeper for non-keeper, you should be looking to guarantee a gain in the standings

Brad Johnson: On the flip side, if you’re trying to buy keepers, emphasize the real dollar potential of your trade. People will pay anything if they think it’s worth $50 actual dollars.

Bruce: Any hesitation to pay steep for a cheap Mccullers in a keeper league?

Brad Johnson: Sure, so many injuries, and he’s a guy who maxes out early in his outings

Brad Johnson: For all that, he’s quite good. It’s a gamble.

Shane: Are Judge and Bellinger first round picks next year?  How would you rank them for next year compared to Arenado and Mookie?  Thanks!

Brad Johnson: I think you have to prioritize the guys with the long track record. I’m much more bullish about Judge than Bellinger

Brad Johnson: You’ve got to stuff Stanton back in the 1st round now too. And there’s all those other studs who haven’t gone away

Brad Johnson: plus Turner. SPs are so rare that you have to think about an ace.

Jake: At this point in the season, does it make more sense to ignore weaknesses and load up on strengths for the playoffs? For example, I lose in batting average almost every week, so would it make more sense to drop a guy like LeMahieu for someone like Gallo or Schebler?

Brad Johnson: For H2H, you do want to have your 6 or so strong categories. But there’s more than one way to build a winner. It sounds like your roster is probably built to punt AVG though

Fat Steve: Who do you prefer for he next 3 years – Mookie or Correa?

Brad Johnson: MOOOOKIE

Guest: Any prospects in the minors that could be stashed as one of seven keepers for next year?

Brad Johnson: Not with the way major leaguers are playing. Prospects have never been less valuable in shallow keeper formats (i.e. fewer than 150 players kept)

dan: Better career when all said and done – carmar or archer?

Brad Johnson: I’ll bet on CMart

Bob: Baez turn a corner?  Is he becoming the 30 homer, 15 steal guy everyone had expected?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think we’re getting that many SB from him any time soon. He’s basically Rougned Odor with more off days.

dee’s nuts: re: insta-quit . . . I thought about it.  There was some bs rationale about “not dumping” to which I asked whether that was written down.  It isn’t.  The commissioner is also in third while I’m in first, so there’s that

Brad Johnson: I’d probably leave the league after the season then, citing your commissioner for cheating

E: acuana, moncada and trea turner for degrom and Ramirez – I cant think of one format in which this is a bad trade. This is a classic trade future for win now type of move. I don’t even know what side is supposedly unfair?

Brad Johnson: Related to that last comment (and an earlier one). Personally, if the league is deep enough, then Turner is too much to pay for the pair alone.

Brad Johnson: But I don’t see anything wrong with the swap. I assume there’s some desperation in play for this guy in 1st

Chris: If you’re a GM and you can have either goldy or Harper next year and next year only who do you take?

Brad Johnson: Goldy

Brad Johnson: That’s just me though. I understand most people would pick Harper

Kevin: Think Ozzie Albies provides any fantasy value for the rest of season?

Brad Johnson: I really don’t

Giorgio: Fulmer a top 10 pitcher in dynasty?

Brad Johnson: He’s in that conversation, yes

Slapshot: Do you have any advice on ways to best make up innings to reach an innings limit in a league like ottoneu?  Is it worth it to use my starters every time they come up until my projection approaches the limit, or is there something to be said to being cautious with the borderline guys (like a Jason Vargas type) even if it means coming up short on innings?

Brad Johnson: For ottoneu, you MUST hit your cap, even if it means you took some sub-prime innings in the process

Brad Johnson: FGpts that is

Brad Johnson: if it’s just a 5×5, then there’s more to the calculation

Bob: What do you know about Acuna?  Is he the next coming of Mike Trout?

Brad Johnson: Ha! I wouldn’t go that far

Brad Johnson: People like his work ethic and tools. Plus he’s performing at a young age.

Brad Johnson: I don’t really have a comp for him, that’s a better question for Eric

Guest: Why does Trout have to be a “Qualified Batter” in order to be listed as a leader in WAR?

Brad Johnson: I mean, he doesn’t. It’s just how the pages work for the purpose of sorting other stats.

seth: osuna and rivero decided my 0.20 ERA lead should become 0.02. Ratios are the pits…

Brad Johnson: I’m worried about Osuna. His velocity is down a couple tics lately. Working 92-94 mph

Brad Johnson: Was consistently 95+ earlier in the year

I got more hits than Sadaharu Oh: Who are the best international prospects after Shohei Otani? Any predictions on where Otani might sign?

Brad Johnson: Uh, there’s a hitter. I need to look him up…

Brad Johnson: Tetsuto Yamada – https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=yamada000te…

Brad Johnson: Seems he’s having a down season though. I hadn’t looked at him since prior to the season

Dylan: A very foolish gentleman in my league just dropped Rivero. I have Giles, Rosenthal, Hand, and Doolittle. Should I put in a waiver claim and drop one of the above?

Brad Johnson: I guess you could cut Doolittle for the more stable asset…

Brad Johnson: That’s a tough scenario, but Rivero would be your best closer

Brad Johnson: Really unsure which to cut since they’re all quite good

Not Luke: Can we get a poll to see if I  should trade my Luis Perdomo for his Oswaldo Arcia 🙂

Brad Johnson: In a vacuum, they’re all going to say Perdomo.

Brad Johnson: This is for a 20 team, 45 player, keep 28 format. Arcia, it should be noted, is the best hitter in all of the minors.

Brad Johnson:

Jason: Would you trade $80 auction dollars (out of $260) for Aaron Judge (keep forever for $3 + $3 inflation)

Brad Johnson: That’s extremely tempting, but I can’t say for sure without being in the league itself

Brad Johnson: auction dollars tend to disappear in inflation anyway

Brad Johnson: and value is found at the margins

Brad Johnson: I like putting myself in a position where I HAVE to find Yonder Alonso and Chris Taylor

Moltar: Shane Green or Bud Norris ROS? Loves me some SP-eligible closers.

Brad Johnson: I think I prefer Greene for the lack of competition

Mikel: Why are you more bullish on Judge?

Brad Johnson: This is in reference to an earlier question about Judge and Bellinger being possible 1st rounders

Brad Johnson: Bellinger’s raw power doesn’t match his actual home run total. Judge’s totally does – if not exceeds it

Brad Johnson: So I foresee some regression with Bellinger whereas I think Judge will challenge for the HR crown pretty much every year he’s healthy

Brad Johnson: And the Yankees are going to have some monster offenses in the near future with him at the heart of the order

Brad Johnson: We know they’ll probably win Harper or Machado at the very least. I’d bet on a big trade too.

KB: Melancon got lit up for 4 ER in 2/3 IP in his last rehab outing. Does Dyson keep the gig ROS?

Brad Johnson: If Melancon is healthy, they’ll pop him back in the role. The contract forces their hand

Brad Johnson: Though, if he’s struggling, they may just send him to do more rehab

Brian : Super Soaker to the head:  what kind of keeper is Devers?  Elite?  Wait and see?

Brad Johnson: Let’s see what he does RoS

OC: Yelich and berrios or Carlos Martinez and Domingo Santana?

Brad Johnson: CMart and Santana are the top 2 in that swap imo

Brad Johnson: Admittedly, I have some Yelich fatigue

Carl: Why do you say pitching is so rare? Do you mean Aces are rare, and then after that everyone else is interchangeable?

Brad Johnson: I mean, there are like 30 SP in the entire league who aren’t some kind of dumpster fire.

Brad Johnson: Here’s a list of guys with 50+ IP as a SP. It gets ugly right around #35 (Bauer) – http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=50…

E: Through the trade deadline I lost 2 closers and wasn’t able to snag any of the new ones. Who is currently not closing that I might want to grab?

Brad Johnson: Ryan Tepera, David Hernandez, Brandon Kintzler

Brad Johnson: Maybe Carter Capps

RC: What are your thoughts on Alex Woods dip in velocity? He hasn’t looked the same last 3 starts. Is it time to sell hard? I am tied for first and he has keeper value in our league so I may be able to get degrom for him but I lose three years of control at low cost.

Brad Johnson: I… had not noticed a dip. I shall investigate!

Brad Johnson: Seems he’s slipped from 92-93mph range to 90-92mph since mid-June. Yea, that’s concerning.

Brian : What do I have to do to win?  Been second 7 of 8 years.  Second again.  Any tips?

Brad Johnson: Sounds like you’re doing quite well. Is the same guy beating you? Are you missing out on the big lopsided trades?

DAMIEN: BRAD WHO YOU LIKE IN DFS TONIGHT AT FIRST AND SECOND BASE?

Brad Johnson: I, uh, haven’t set lineups yet

Brad Johnson: But it’s a 15 game slate so there’s like 12 or 15 gems at both positions

THE GOAT: When springer comes off the dl who of AJ Pollock, Justin Turner, and Justin Smoak should I cut to clear up that roster spot

Brad Johnson: There HAS to be somebody else

Brad Johnson: And if it must be one of them, I guess Pollock

Brad Johnson: but that can’t possibly be correct

dee’s nuts: re: insta-quitting (I can only keep one guy with a first round grade for next year.  If I keep trea turner I have to drop goldschmidt.  Turner’s doing me no good on the DL.

Brad Johnson: Going back to that earlier thread. That certainly does put pressure on your to make a swap. But you could gamble on Turner not getting that grade due to health concerns. I’m thinking he’s around #13-15 right now

Rasta: The Yankees have a deep pen but lack a legit lefty other than Chapman. Am I crazy to think that between a combination of Chapman’s command issues and NYY wanting a lefty weapon, Aroldis doesn’t hold the job all year? If I’m not certifiable, who so you think has the best chance of getting the closer gig?

Brad Johnson: Betances or Robertson if your crazy scenario plays out. I really doubt we’ll see anything like that

Brad Johnson: Though his postseason use may reflect your thinking

weezy: I think I am following re: shallow keeper formats & prospects. You mean since late-career breakouts are a thing, holding out for a 21 yo to figure it out isn’t as prudent?

Brad Johnson: Pretty much. The point of the game is to produce MLB stats right now

Brad Johnson: There are always going to be factors pushing you in one direction or another. As an extreme example, if you can trade a Jed Lowrie type for an Acuna or Moncada, then that’s a format where you probably load up young and wait

Brad Johnson: but most of the dynasty and deep keepers I play, a low cost Acuna is going to draw demands for a Joey Votto or similar star

Sleepy: ROS (OBP, SLG, R, RBI, SB-CS) – Ozzie Albies or Brandon Phillips?

Brad Johnson: Phillips

Brad Johnson: sad face

Zach: Think Derek Fisher continue to see regular playing time once Springer returns?

Brad Johnson: Yea, I think they’ll find it somewhere

Brad Johnson: Assuming he continues to mash

seth: jim johnson safe to cut, or hold because the waiver wire is junk on junk (15 team, deep rosters)

Brad Johnson: I might be patient a little bit longer. Depends on your needs and what you find out there

Brad Johnson: We’re getting towards the end and I’m working 15 minutes in the past, I’m going to skip to the present

Eric: Is Springer coming back today?

Brad Johnson: There were rumors of a rumor that he was returning

Brad Johnson: They’ve yet to post their lineup, a sign they may want him to get through warm ups before activating him

dave in slc: are sims or woodruff worth adding in nl only?

Brad Johnson: I think they’re both worth adding. Expect volatility

Jazzhole: Did Tommy Pham used to beat you up in high school or something? You seem to go out of your way to rip him, and your evaluation of him as a “streamer in half of leagues” is asinine

Brad Johnson: The Tommy Pham love is out of control. He’s a ground ball hitter who occasionally gets super hot. His 15 SB are an outlier, and the Cardinals have better OFers to cut into his playing time in the future.

Brad Johnson: Injuries and poor performances from other guys have helped keep the door open for him, but he’ll eventually slump back into a part time role

Brad Johnson: By all means, ride the wave. Don’t get stuck holding the check

Slamboni: In your opinion, should a dynasty league have a trade deadline? There shouldn’t be too many lopsided swaps. It makes for good dramatics, but as long as their is no foul play, shouldn’t there be no deadline?

Brad Johnson: I go back and forth on this. My deepest dynasty has a deadline this Thursday. I think it should be the first week of September.

Brad Johnson: Deadlines, in my opinion, are a means to protect the owners who are… less good… at evaluating multiple variables in a trade

Brad Johnson: The rich tend to get richer at the expense of these teams

Brad Johnson: even the most highly functional dynasties have guys who are easy money

Kevin: In a 6-player keep forever league, would you trade Trout for Mookie, Freeman, and Contreras?  What if you substitute Arenado for Mookie?

Brad Johnson: No.

Brad Johnson: The only exception is if I literally had only Mike Trout on my roster

THE GOAT: Well my other cut optione if not pollock smoak or Turner would be Gary Sanchez JT Realmuto or DJ LeMahieu is one of those guys the move?

Brad Johnson: DJLM for sure, assuming you’ll have someone playing 2b

Weensy: Albies and Braun for Devers in an OBP keeper?

Brad Johnson: Can do, depending on league depth, personal needs, etc.

Brad Johnson: Don’t bank on Devers playing full time RoS

dave in slc: traded a keepable doolitle at 15 along w almora at $5 for Lorenzen at 11 and non keepable pollock. seemed like more hitting categories up in the air and could have only gained 2 to 4 pts max in sv. i made the right move right?

Brad Johnson: Seems fine to me

Ballast: Frazier, Devers or Nunez ROS at third?

Brad Johnson: Not Frazier

Brad Johnson: Nunez has a nice well-rounded skill set. Devers higher ceiling, lower floor

Brad Johnson: Both could eat into each other’s playing time

dapperdan: By “actual dollar value”, do you mean auction dollars in next year’s draft?  i.e. “This potential $% keeper Aaron Judge is worth $50, since he’d likely go for $55 in an auction today.”  It’s kinf=d of hard to emphasize “real” dollar value to a guy in 8th place who has no shot at the money, and next year an entire unknown.

Brad Johnson: I was referring to potential for winning money. In that 20 team dynasty I mentioned, I overpaid for Bradley Zimmer recently because his production in SB was worth about $75 EV over Eugenio Suarez.

Mike: 5×5 ROS: Bradley or Inciarte?

Brad Johnson: Bradley!

Brad Johnson: Inciarte’s good too though. Might be pretty close when all is said and done

TheHandofRod: woodruff or castillo in H2H points?

Brad Johnson: Castillo

Harold: Was offered Aaron Nola for Nunez and Claudio in a keeper league. In this pitching starved environment is that a yes? I have 4 other closers, we use MI and I have Moncada for that…

Brad Johnson: Big yes IMO

Ryan: Are these all guys legit keepers in a 12 team keep 6? $12 Fulmer, $5 Wil Myers & $2 Thames – trying to gauge trade value

Brad Johnson: Yes

Brad Johnson: Unfortunately, they kind of live in that space where they should be kept, but most owners are probably going to view them as similar to their existing assets

Brad Johnson: You’ll need to find owners who like those specific players in order to sell them for a profit

Porcho Villa: Grandal is quietly having a bad season– his power is down and walk rate is half his usual level. Any hope for a rebound? Any C fliers you would consider replacing him with?

Brad Johnson: Austin Barnes is having a top 15 catcher season as a backup…

Brad Johnson: Specifically, Grandal’s backup 🙂

Snow: Need saveholds: Addison Reed for Aaron Hicks?

Brad Johnson: Without more information, seems fine to me

Bart: Keep one pitcher for next season, which one would you choose? Nola, Carrasco or Tanaka.

Brad Johnson: Not Tanaka

Brad Johnson: If you figure this will be a recurring question, Nola has the better long term value. He’s a borderline top 15 pitcher despite missing a chunk of the season and struggling early

Porcho Villa: Matt Carpenter’s power metrics are all solid and he’s hitting a career high FB%, yet he’s been stuck on mid-teens HR for a while. Think he will step up the production rest of this season?

Brad Johnson: I’ve been waiting and waiting and waiting

Brad Johnson: He’s one of a couple dozen guys who could bust out 8 or 10 home runs over a short span

Brian : Same guy beats me.  Every damn time.  This year a guy wanted all Cubs and traded him max for Hendricks

Brad Johnson: Yep, I had a feeling

Brad Johnson: Being in the right place in the right time can make all the difference

Fulmer?: What about Fulmer makes you think future fantasy star?  His strikeout rate is pathetic this year.

Brad Johnson: I’m not concerned about the K’s, he’s been focused on improving the length of his starts. He has the stuff, velocity, and wherewithal to become a monster

Brad Johnson: and even without improving, he’s already a top 10-15 fantasy arm

Brad Johnson: ok folks, I haven’t received a new question in a couple minutes, and I need to set my rosters/negotiate some trades. See you next Tuesday!

Kenny: Any chance Luke Weaver finds a spot in the rotation before the year is over? His last outing was solid and he’s got nothing left to prove in the minors.

Brad Johnson: Definitely a chance.

Porcho Villa: Manaea went from a top 5 SwK in the first half to his current state of striking almost no one out. Concerned about fatigue (esp. in light of shoulder injury)?

Brad Johnson: Some cause for concern. He’s volatile

Mike: Can finally drop Matz in a 12tm H2H?

Brad Johnson: Sure can

Al: Luis Castillo the real deal?

Brad Johnson: yes-ish