Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 8/22/2017

Brad Johnson: Howdy folks. Let’s get started, shall we?

JD15: With Darvish and Salazar (didn’t see that until 10 mins ago) on my DL along with RPs A. Miller and Rosenthal, how do I hit my innings limit without overpaying in a trade? (currently on the wire: Trevor Williams, Urena, Vargas, Bridwell, Richard)

Brad Johnson: Well, yea, you’ll have to stream. You’ll probably be moving on from Miller and Rosenthal, but try to wait for a little clarity on their issues

Spreadsheet Scout: What tier of OF do you see Nomar Mazara settling into for 2018 and 2019? Trying to decide whether to keep him

Brad Johnson: It’s not really a matter of tier, it’s a decision on whether or not to roll the dice

Brad Johnson: He’s a candidate to break out in a massive way

Brad Johnson: If you spike that, then any price you paid will have been worth it. And if you just want to bet on similar production to the last calendar year, then you’ll never win him

Bleh: Bradley Zimmer… could I do better?  Worth holding onto ROS?

Brad Johnson: For redraft, I think you have to consider moving on

Brad Johnson: I love the 5 category potential, but he’s been slow to adjust

Brad Johnson: It’s a critical time of year to be playing a dud

Brad Johnson: That said, if he shakes the slump, you’ll be very sad to have moved on

JD15: Every time there is a hot streak for Byron Buxton I feel like people get overexcited. I see that he has a positive trend in exit velocity and better plate discipline over the past couple months. Should I actually be excited about having him in otto fgpts or is this a time to take advantage and trade him?

Brad Johnson: I’ve gotten a few shares recently for the purpose of future trading. He’s still a well-liked name, but I’m unconvinced he’ll ever be consistent. However, he isn’t very far from being a Keon Broxton. That has value over a full season

Rasta: Talk to me about Chad Kuhl, please

Brad Johnson: Throws hard (95-96mph) and has a solid repertoire. Command is just OK. Everything is in place for a big breakthrough, but those don’t always come.

Brad Johnson: The profile reminds me of vintage Edwin Jackson

Brad Johnson: He never figured it out, but that doesn’t mean Kuhl won’t.

Gabe: Why do you hate America?

Brad Johnson: Presumably this is related to a tweet from earlier. To be clear, I very much like America. I very much think the national anthem is an outdated sack of poo. These views are my own and in no way sanctioned by this website.

Brad Johnson: Moving on…

Trip McNealy: Is Eddie Rosario just hot or is there anything in his profile to suggest he’s truly breaking out?

Brad Johnson: Pretty sure he’s just hot

Brad Johnson: I looked a couple day back and didn’t see any of the usual indicators for meaningful change

Brad Johnson: I’m finding I’m rather sleepy. I need to cook some caffeine. One moment please

Mallex P. Keaton: Start both Shark (home v. Brewers) and Morton (home v. Nats) in H2H tonight?

Brad Johnson: Yessir

Pie: Do you see Oh holding the closer job in STL for the rest of the season?

Brad Johnson: I think so. He’s pitching well enough.

Brad Johnson: Although he’s likely to be on a short leash

another bad dynasty manager: Hi Brad: 16 team pts. league. Second week of playoff matchup. Need to drop one start so I can start four on Sun.  J. Garcia@Det, Skaggs @Hous, Pruitt@Toronto, Gsellman @ Wash.  Greinke and Nola are automatic.  Thanks.

Brad Johnson: Would love to not use any of those 🙂

Brad Johnson: I think I’d dodge the Skaggs start

Middagh: Better stash for 2018, Mike Kopech or Alex Reyes?

Brad Johnson: Gimme Reyes

Ham Porter: In a league where Ks are overvalued, who do you keep out of these four; Giolito, Conley, H. Bailey, Urena

Brad Johnson: I have to keep one?

Brad Johnson: If it’s keep forever, I’d go Giolito and hope the light eventually turns on

Brad Johnson: Otherwise, Urena?

Rasta: Does Deshields get on base enough to matter in a shallow 12 teamer?

Brad Johnson: He’s a streamer, one you might roster every other day

Matt: Doolittle, Colome, Kimbrel going to get me through ROS? I had Chapman in their over Colome, but…

Brad Johnson: I don’t see why not

another bad dynasty manager: Is Chisenhall really going to be in reserve role once he gets back?  His ISO was great before he got injured.

Brad Johnson: No, he’ll start once he’s fully healthy

Brad Johnson: he’ll probably be part time until then

Brad Johnson: Zimmer’s playing time is not safe

Brad Johnson: Although his ability to play CF helps

August Don: Reggie Jackson is the only HOFer with more Ks than base hits.  Jim Thome is likely to be the second.  Could Aaron Judge follow this path?  Anyone else?

Brad Johnson: A whole slew of the current generation. Basically whoever lasts long enough. And before you start writing Judge into the HOF, he’s already 25. A player needs 5 elite seasons and 5 more good ones to make the HOF

Brad Johnson: Chase Utley makes a good comparison point

Brad Johnson: He’s a top 5 2B All Time and he probably won’t garner more than a couple votes from Philly writers

Actually Mike Stanton: Last 3 bats are Wong Kiermaier Kendrick – two of them bench bats. 12tm 5×5. Who’s a dropper?

Brad Johnson: I think I’d lean Wong. Playing time in STL is so fluid

seth: Thames or Josh Bell for this season? next?

Brad Johnson: Thames then Bell

Ham Porter: In a vaccuum, who do you keep next year; Conforto or Jimmy Nelson?

Brad Johnson: Conforto

Brad Johnson: Nelson reminds of Sonny Gray in the sense that he has to be absolutely on top of his game to be this good

Brad Johnson: I think the difference between a 3.50 ERA and 5.00 ERA for those two is only half a grade of command

Brad Johnson: To be clear, they aren’t comparable pitchers in any other way.

JD15: 1-10 how in are you on Hoskins? Seems like writers at Fangraphs (Dave & Eno at least) love his profile

Brad Johnson: 10

Brad Johnson: +

Brad Johnson: He’s going to be a fantasy monster for years and years

Hannah Hochevar: Is it poor etiquette to trade a player solely to help another team accumulate counting stats? I’m in a roto league, standard 5×5. I’m in 2nd place overall, but blowing everyone away in SV; I’ve locked up that category. The guy in 1st place overall is in 2nd place in SV, bunched up with a few other teams. I want to trade a closer to the teams in 3rd and 4th place in SV to help them overtake him. There’s no one on either team that I can really use, so I’d knowingly be trading my closers for droppable players.

Brad Johnson: Absolutely not! Back when I used to write more interesting content during the season, I’d advise readers to look for these opportunities.

Brad Johnson: Manage the scoreboard, including where other teams perform

Brad Johnson: The easiest category to manipulate is saves

seth: Josh Donaldson: SS

Brad Johnson: A few years ago, we’d freak out. I kinda figure he’s more useful as a 3B.

Brad Johnson: I mostly see Machado used as a 3B

Brad Johnson: Be interesting to…

Brad Johnson:

Wes: Rivero Greene Ramos Ziegler ans only 3 RP slots – worried last two lose jobs. Who’s dropper?

Brad Johnson: Forced to make a move now? Why not wait?

Brad Johnson: If you have to, definitely Ziegler

Bleh: I dumped Trumbo for David Peralta.  Smart?  Trumbo has just killed me all year with that low average

Brad Johnson: It’s fine

Brad Johnson: Peralta’s a higher floor, lower ceiling asset

Brad Johnson: Trumbo could still pull one of those 15 HR months

Adam: Would you be starting Roark (@ HOU) and/or Taillon (home to LAD) tonight, if you needed W and K but were walking a tightrope with ratios? (NL-Only roto – I have Corbin @NYM tonight too, so that may temper any meltdowns by either of the other 2)

Brad Johnson: Get out the antacids…

Brad Johnson: I guess it really comes down to what you need more – the W/K or defending existing ratio leads

Brad Johnson: When I’m presented with a situation like this, I usually tell myself to trust the players

Brad Johnson: I don’t often roster guys I think are untalented

Groot: Is it safe to assume Dahl won’t have a meaningful impact ROS? What are your thoughts longer-term in a dynasty/keeper?

Brad Johnson: I believe so. He’s a great post-hype buy

Brad Johnson: Although I think we should temper expectations

Brad Johnson: He was viewed as a 5 category star

Brad Johnson: but with HR going crazy and him aging another year, I’m not as impressed by the power

Brad Johnson: May be looking at 10 or fewer SB

Frenchy: Is it recency bias to say that Hoskins has jumped over Chris Taylor and Rodon over Glasnow/Honeywell in OBP keeper?

Brad Johnson: Chris Taylor is confusing

Brad Johnson: I don’t know what to do with him. I’ll hold until somebody offers way too much

Brad Johnson: But I fully expect to find myself cutting him middle of next season

Brad Johnson: That said, I think Hoskins is bigger than any iteration of Taylor

Brad Johnson: As for the Rodon part, they’re all high risk, high reward types

Brad Johnson: By virtue of pitching well in the MLB right now, Rodon should be preferred

Cole: Is Maikel Franco worth holding onto in a dynasty format?

Brad Johnson: I’ve been debating if the Phillies should hold him in their dynasty format

Brad Johnson: i.e. real life

Brad Johnson: My position is yes, provisionally

Brad Johnson: It’s all about opportunity cost. What don’t you get to keep if you hang onto Franco?

KJ: Need to dump an NA to make room, 20 team dynasty: Sam Travis, Schimpf, Hunter Dozier, or Banda?

Brad Johnson: Schimpf

Brad Johnson: He’s old folk

John: Keep Rhys Hoskins for next year? He’s eligible in OF in Yahoo

Brad Johnson: No brainer unless it’s a really shallow format

Soup Dawg: Is it worth hanging on to Rosenthal until there’s conclusive news?  Not much available- Robertson, Oh, Treinen, Dyson, Norris and Vizcaino- points league so holds help.

Brad Johnson: As long as it isn’t costing you much

Brad Johnson: a few days of a shelved reliever doesn’t usually affect things

JD15: What are your thoughts on keeper Greg Bird for non-keeper Verlander?

Brad Johnson: I’ll take Verlander please and thanks

Brad Johnson: There are 75 power hitting 1B in the league

Brad Johnson: There are 30 SP worth an expletive

Dire Straits: Howie Kendrick’s been fire. And i like his multi-pos eligibility. Is he worth starting in a 14 team points league with playoff position at stake?  This week i chose him over Pollock.

Brad Johnson: He’s playable in a deep format

Brad Johnson: Certainly a good guy for the bench

Brad Johnson: In case you have injuries

EK: What’s your pitching strategy going into H2H playoffs? I’m having trouble deciding if I should risk using a 2 starter…

Brad Johnson: frankly, I have a ridiculous approach to H2H. I don’t recommend you mimic it

Brad Johnson: I drafted or kept Kershaw, Sale, Scherzer, Kluber, Carrasco, and Arrieta. Later snagged Morton and Godley

Brad Johnson: Spent nearly all of my budget on them

Brad Johnson: Ironically, all of my offensive money went to Story, Villar, and Matt Carpenter

Brad Johnson: It’s still working (I’m 2nd)

Brad Johnson: Point being, I think the key to H2H victory is to amass silly amounts of SP

Brad Johnson: at least in the current run environment

Adam: Is there still a chance Barraclough gets saves for MIA, or did his DL stay (and Ziegler’s performance since) dash that dream?

Brad Johnson: There’s a chance

Brad Johnson: He’s a solid stash

Dire Straits: How do you feel about Greg Holland’s rocky stretch?  Is he no longer a premium option?

Brad Johnson: Correct

Brad Johnson: For my Saves and Steals column on Rotoworld, I’ve been warning about this all season

Brad Johnson: I was very reluctant to acknowledge how well he was pitching because a slump seemed so certain to happen

Isaac: Pham or Fowler ROS? Fowler for OBP leagues, right? Pham can’t keep this BABIP up…

Brad Johnson: Gimme Fowler. He’s working with a career low BABIP despite seemingly improved contact profile

Brad Johnson: Great buy low

Gabe: Trust Lamet to put up good K’s and quality starts down the stretch?

Brad Johnson: Trust? Hell no. You’ll probably get the Ks though

Bruce Bocce: Would you swap Hosmer (replacement is Morales) for Buxton and Stroman?

Brad Johnson: I’d swap him for Stroman

Brad Johnson: so yes, I’ll take the bonus SB off the bench

E: Think we’ll see Ronald Acuna this year? And does he return value?

Brad Johnson: No

Brad Johnson: Despite his impressive rise through the minors, the Braves would be dumb to burn a 40-man spot on him before necessary

Brad Johnson: he’s not Rule 5 eligible until after 2019

Mallex P. Keaton: Better keeper 1B next season: Ed Encarnacion in the 16th round (of 25) or Thames in the 22nd?

Brad Johnson: Thames

HoF shift: After today’s aces retire, will hof voters start voting for the best of the 5-6 inning starters or simply focus on hitters?

Brad Johnson: I’m not convinced the shift will be this all consuming

Brad Johnson: We’ll have more Lance McCullers types who leave it all out there for 5 or 6 frames, but we’ll also have late career Corey Klubers pop up too

Brad Johnson: I’m 20 minutes behind on the questions, time to warp to present

Orange Whips: RHHHYYYSSS!!! 409 feet to dead effing center. I’m in love. He’s an elite keeper, no? This doesn’t smell like Thames or Shelton to me.

Brad Johnson: Don’t sell Thames short

Brad Johnson: He’s a quality slugger

Brad Johnson: As for Rhys, yes, he looks like vintage Bautista to me

Brad Johnson: with a dash of Votto for good measure

Patty V: Which Orioles OF do you want ROS: Trumbo or Jones?

Brad Johnson: I’d probably take Jones for the consistent production

Brad Johnson: Not a fan of either tbh

A. Reitz: Hoskins is Pat Burrell. Lets be real. Fantasy monster…?

Brad Johnson: This is the worst comp, let’s dissect

Brad Johnson: but first…

Brad Johnson:

Brad Johnson: Also, https://www.google.com/search?q=man+or+machine+pat+burrell&rlz=1C1KMZB…:

Brad Johnson: Burrell was a high walk, high strikeout hitter with power and low BABIPs

Brad Johnson: Hoskins might share the walks and BABIPs, but he makes a ton of contact

Brad Johnson: I believe he’s swung through one pitch in the strike zone

Brad Johnson: and since he doesn’t swing out of the zone, he… has the makings of a monster

E: How helpful will Chapman be in the h2h playoffs?

Brad Johnson: Probably pretty helpful

Brad Johnson: I figure he’ll have his job back in o/u 2.5 scoreless outings

Ham Porter: Which rookie not named Judge or Bellinger will be ranked highest ahead of drafts next year?

Brad Johnson: Could be Hoskins. Let me draw up a list first

Brad Johnson: Benintendi, Zimmer if he rebounds, maybe Luis Castillo

Brad Johnson: I’d put my money on Hoskins though

Dan: Rodon, next bumgarner? Or at least close?

Brad Johnson: Not comparable profiles

E: How often do you change out the sponge in your sink?

Brad Johnson: Pretty much when the green scrubby part is gone

Brad Johnson: Usually about 3 months. I haven’t poisoned myself yet

Dan: Acuna or Guerrero for fantasy long term?

Brad Johnson: I’ll take Acuna

Nick Williams: Am I locked in to a starting job for 2018? If so, How will I do?

Brad Johnson: Not quite locked, the Phillies have ridiculous OF depth

Brad Johnson: It’s very likely he has a job along with Herrera and Altherr

Brad Johnson: I still like the Adam Jones comp for Williams. Something like a .280/.330/.480 line with plenty of run production

Cut Miggy???: Is it ok to cut miggy in a 10 team league as criminal as it sounds. Cron is someone that i am looking at. Need hr and rbi and miggy ain’t giving me anything.

Brad Johnson: Not for Cron

Guest: I mean Burrel was a 25HR .360obp a year for a decade so why would it really be bad IF Hoskins was only that?

Brad Johnson: Don’t tell that to Phillies fans. Pat Burrell was anti-christ because he was never visibly upset by anything

Brad Johnson: Philly folk prefer their players to throw fits

Brad Johnson: Although they’ll give ’em shit for that too

Mark: Can you explain for the simple minded, what OPS+ and wRC are?

Brad Johnson: Sure. OPS+ is basically a park neutral version of OPS. For example, Comparing Charlie Blackmon’s plain OPS to Hunter Pence’s isn’t fair because Blackmon plays at the most hitter friendly park and Pence is at the least friendly

Brad Johnson: so the difference between their OPS’ is overstated

Brad Johnson: OPS+ corrects for that using park factors

Brad Johnson: We use wOBA here at FanGraphs though. We think it’s much better 🙂

Brad Johnson: wRC stands for weighted runs created. Basically, we turn all events (singles, doubles, etc.) into a run value. I forget the exact values and they change a little each year.

Brad Johnson: wRC is just a total though. We usually refer to wRC+ which tells us how a player compares to average

Brad Johnson: 100 is average, 90 is 10 percent below average, 110 is 10 percent above average, etc.

Nate: ROS – with an emphasis on WHIP/ERA, who do you like: Davies, Marquez, Snell or Lamet?

Brad Johnson: Davies or (cringe) Lamet

AR: What to make of Cargo ROS?

Brad Johnson: For the thousand people asking this question, I don’t know. And I’m sorry you have to deal with it

Brad Johnson: I didn’t pick Cargo anywhere so he’s not my problem

Brad Johnson: I literally have no insight. I assume he’s played the whole season hurt

Melvin: Amed Rosario over Xander ROS? These two guys are KILLING me!

Brad Johnson: No

Brad Johnson: Xander all the way

Oddball Herrera: Think Piscotty can turn it around this season?  Think he gets enough PA for it to matter?

Nate: Any sleeper bats or arms with low ownership currently that you envision making a sizable impact down the stretch run?

Brad Johnson: Piscotty could be one of those sleeper bats. How low ownership do you need?

Brad Johnson: Matt Joyce is ok at 3% owned

Brad Johnson: Ben Revere is predictably stealing bases

Brad Johnson: The Rangers claim to really like Drew Robinson. Might give him a chance with Gomez out

Brad Johnson: though that’s a very short window

Brad Johnson: Lucas Duda’s 11%

Brad Johnson: Wilmer Flores is 6% and getting cleanup reps

Taylor: Hoskins bell or granderson

Brad Johnson: Hoskins

Brad Johnson: any time period

Tyler: Long term who do you think has more upside out of Alex Wood/Aaron Nola/James Paxton?

Brad Johnson: Nola

Brad Johnson: That’s an interesting basket though

Brad Johnson: All have an injury cloud hanging over them

Brad Johnson: Paxton is the most talented today, Wood was just as good as recently as June

Poll idea: NL fantasy MVP: scherzer, goldy, Blackmon, Kershaw, Harper, other?

Brad Johnson: Blackmon for me

Brad Johnson: That team is sub-.500 without him

Brad Johnson: and team performance matters when it comes to Most Valuable

Brad Johnson: Anybody who says otherwise failed out of english

Brad Johnson: That’s not to say an elite player on a bad team shouldn’t even win. But when a player is superb and carrying his team, he deserves the nod

Pat: Hey Brad, do you see Greg Bird making an impact rest of season for my fantasy team?

Brad Johnson: NO

Brad Johnson: ha, that’s supposed to be a normal no

Ron: Which outfielder would you pick up for ROS and next season: Eddie Rosario, Manuel Margot or Chris Taylor?

Brad Johnson: How the balls is Chris Taylor a free agent?

Brad Johnson: He’s a top 30 player…

FN: Don’t be biased, Brad. What’s your favorite website to play standard fantasy baseball on?

Brad Johnson: Yahoo

Brad Johnson: The draft interface is the best of the major sites

Brad Johnson: By comparison, CBS is best for dynasty

Brad Johnson: It’s very flexible

Brad Johnson: Yahoo is inherently inflexible, very limited in what you can do

Brad Johnson: CBS has the worst draft interface though

Brad Johnson: Never use it for anything other than a slow draft

Brad Johnson: If you’re playing standard on CBS, do the draft on RTS and port it in

Mirage 3: Please Rank for an ops league ROS: pirela, Chris Taylor and Bowie kendrick

Brad Johnson: Taylor and tie

Brad Johnson: Big gap between Taylor and the others

Brad Johnson: Like the gap between Blackmon and Adam Jones

Twoseamers: Brad – please brainstorm for a moment on some Rhys Hoskins fantasy baseball team names – (hint: Rhys is pronounced Reese)

Brad Johnson: It’s pronounced Reese, but for the purposes of puns it’ll be better to use Rise

Brad Johnson: Low hanging fruit… Rhys’ Cup

Brad Johnson: In one league, I changed my team name to Brad’s Hand immediately after drafting him

FN: Re: hoskins team name – Rhys’ Pieces

Jason D: If Kyle Schwarber played football instead, what position would he play?

Brad Johnson: Uh. He doesn’t have a NFL body

Brad Johnson: Quarterback?

Brad Johnson: He’d die at any other position

Brad Johnson: Literally die

Rhys hoskins: I am fond of…Reese on Earth, Reese Train and Justice of the Reese

Jason D: Brad’s Hand of the King…missed opportunity, if you’re a GoT person

Brad Johnson: I’m a bigger fan of euphemisms

Mark: RE: Piece of Rhys

Nate: If you’re winning your roto league – should you be more concerned with additional points you can gain in the standings (so increasing your point total), or should you be more focused on the points you can potentially lose (decreasing your point total).  Assuming the latter?

Brad Johnson: Yes, grab any points you can, but put more effort into getting steady production

Brad Johnson: That’s extremely reductionist though. You may be best served protecting your floor with volatile players on hot streaks

Jason D: Rhys’d Lightnin’

Cater-Pillar: Favorite baseball Brad? Ausmus? Wilkerson?

Brad Johnson: Hand

Brad Johnson: Actually, I really enjoyed watching Brad Lidge throw only sliders

Brad Johnson: And Milton Bradley was always fun to watch. I’m claiming him as a Brad

Maris: Devers or Chris Taylor ROS?

Brad Johnson: Taylor, especially if you need SB too

Oddball Herrera: I need to re-watch the original Terminator to see if there are any good “Reese” gifs that can be harvested…

Brad Johnson: Tip!

Black Mamba: Who’s the young sleeper with greater fantasy upside for next year, Joey Gallo or Byron Buxton?

Brad Johnson: If Gallo’s asleep in your league, you need a harder league

Hannah Hoaxevar: Buxton or Nunez ROS?

Brad Johnson: Nunez

Mark: How many questions do you get on the queue? I’d imagine its alot

Brad Johnson: They’re very front loaded

Brad Johnson: by the end of the queue, if I don’t answer your question, it’s probably because it doesn’t interest me or I don’t have an answer for it

Brad Johnson: I bet a skipped a couple hundred from between 4:20 and 4:40 though

Brad Johnson: I think people get pissed their question doesn’t get answered and leave

Brad Johnson: Just my guess, I know I want to actually interact with folks

Brad Johnson: I’m going to be messing around with Twitch for just that purpose

Brad Johnson: Give y’all a more hands on experience. More info over the winter

Jason D: Do the Cubs give Maples and Tseng some coffee in September?  Probably depends on the standings, though Maples might actually help with that.

Brad Johnson: Tseng doesn’t pass a statistical smell test for MLB ready

Brad Johnson: Maples has an awful lot of walks

Brad Johnson: I’m not very familiar with them though

Brad Johnson: Time to wrap it up. I have rosters to set

Mike: Cesar Hernandez is a top ___ 2B next year?  10?

Brad Johnson: Lower… 14-18 range?

Oak: Hoskins or Encarnacion the next 3 years?

Brad Johnson: Hoskins

kdallas: re: rookie rankings, maybe Devers over Rhys?

Brad Johnson: Yea, he could get the hype

Brad Johnson: but I think once we assimilate the next 1.33 months, Hoskins will look better

Maris: Judge or Jose Abreu ROS. I say Abreu

Brad Johnson: Judge

Orange Whips: I think it might also be a product of a lot of people being at work (like me) submitting a few questions, then going to do said work, and returning later to see the answers.

Brad Johnson: Could be. Anyway, thanks for playing everyone!

Middagh: Is Jayson Werth worth a spot on a 16-team fantasy roster for the upcoming month?

Brad Johnson: Maybe?

Groot: Do you wear pants when chatting?

Brad Johnson: Usually