Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 8/15/2017
by Brad Johnson
August 15, 2017
Here’s the transcript from today’s chat which included a surprising amount of Bogaerts panic.
| 3:58 |
: Welcome to rad Johnson baseball chat. I noticed the typo too late, please excuse
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| 3:59 |
: I hate to waste your time asking this question but I’m desperate, so I hope you’ll be kind enough to provide your feedback. Need to fill the C spot in my AL-only league and the “best” options are Castro, Gomes, Vasquez and Chirinos. Any one of them stand out above the rest? Thanks!
|
| 3:59 |
: I think Chirinos’ steady HR production is useful in that format. He’s probably top 10.
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| 4:00 |
: Totally thought the “typo” was intentional…
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| 4:00 |
: Alex Bregman has been very hot in the second half. As a whole, how has he compared to your expectations going into the season? Would you consider him a potential keeper at pre-season hype prices?
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| 4:00 |
: To answer the second part of your question first, that depends on just how hyped he was in your league
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| 4:01 |
: There was a very wide range. He certainly needed this rebound to remain interesting to fantasy owners
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| 4:01 |
: He was a massive drain for most of the first half
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| 4:01 |
: Thank you very much for the tip about Godley. He has been a huge help to my Otto rotation. What do you see as his ceiling? Is he this pitcher going forward or is this as good as it gets?
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| 4:01 |
: I think we’re about looking at his ceiling
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| 4:01 |
: There’s always a little more in the tank, but it’s hard to see him improving without more velocity or a new pitch
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| 4:02 |
: Ryon Healy was inexplicably dropped in my 11-team AL-only league. I’m already looking ahead to 2018 and would love to have Healy on board. I know it’s early to project, but how much do you see him being valued at next season?
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| 4:02 |
: That’s a deep format to cut Healy…
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| 4:02 |
: He’s definitely a flawed player, kind of like the AL version of Tommy Joseph
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| 4:03 |
: Too aggressive but powerful enough to have fantasy value. Unfortunately, he’s basically a 0-2 WAR player which puts him at constant risk of losing his job
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| 4:03 |
: These are my pitchers in my 10 team roto. Verlander, Quintana, Berrios, Stroman and Robbie Ray. pick on to drop so I can start streaming. AAre any of these pitchers better than A. Sanchez?
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| 4:03 |
: They’re all better than Anibal Sanchez. And they’re also better than Aaron Sanchez since he’s likely to relieve
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| 4:04 |
: Berrios is probably my cut since he’s looking a little gassed.
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| 4:04 |
: How good can we expect Jordan Montgomery to be next year?
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| 4:04 |
: When we throw around the word “expect” there’s an implication that we’re going to use a projection
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| 4:04 |
: which means we’re using existing data and not really anticipating any breakouts.
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| 4:05 |
: I’d “expect” him to be 10% worse than this year. But he could easily turn into a 3.00 ERA pitcher with a few improvements
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| 4:05 |
: Now that Rizzo has 2b eligibility going into next year, what type of auction price are you expecting? A big bump?
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| 4:05 |
: No, he was already basically maxed out. It mostly just changed the complexion of the positions
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| 4:05 |
: Do you expect regression for Knebel next year? Or is he a top 5-10 closer going forward?
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| 4:06 |
: Knebel reminds me of the wild version of Craig Kimbrel. Still very good, but likely prone to some ugly outings.
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| 4:06 |
: He’s danced around the walks this year, but they’ll eventually burn him
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| 4:06 |
: the position is pretty top heavy right now, but I’d comfortably put him in the 6-12 range
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| 4:06 |
: Who has the better career, Devers or Moncada?
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| 4:07 |
: I’m very tempted to say Devers simply because he’s the better player right now. It’s always hard to predict who will improve and to what degree.
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| 4:07 |
: Yankees acquired international bonus pool money in deadline deals, is Ohtani a Yankee come next season!?
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| 4:08 |
: I don’t think IFA money is much of a factor when it comes to Otani. I kinda doubt he’s even posted despite all the talk
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| 4:08 |
: Miggy… not sure what to do with him at this point. Are you still holding or selling very low for someone who can at least help for the stretch run? For whatever reason the Tigers refuse to DL him. How shallow does the league need to be to drop him?
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| 4:08 |
: I think maybe a 8 or 10 team mixed format
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| 4:08 |
: I’m not in anything shallow enough to even conceptualize it
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| 4:08 |
: At the very least, play him against LHP, he’s still murdering them
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| 4:08 |
: Is Mikie Mahtook a viable OF in a mixed 12-teamer?
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| 4:09 |
: Sure, he’s batting second and hitting well. Be prepared to move on later
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| 4:09 |
: Would you trade Moncada, B. Rogers & G. Bird for Altuve & A. Vizcaino in a 12 team H2H keep forever league?
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| 4:09 |
: No keeper cost? Hell yes.
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| 4:09 |
: I’ll take actualized talent every time I can get it.
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| 4:09 |
: Is the NL wild card Rockies @ Dbacks, Dbacks @ Rockies or something else?
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| 4:10 |
: Seems like it. But the Cardinals have been creeping back into relevance and the Brewers still have a strong roster too
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| 4:10 |
: That race is far from over
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| 4:10 |
: It’s not half as interesting as the AL race though
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| 4:10 |
: Michael Taylor or Zimmer at CF? Think Hoskins hits enough to be a regular LF in a 12 teamer?
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| 4:11 |
: Hoskins hits enough to be a top 10 round draft pick next year.
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| 4:11 |
: That’s my bold bet of the day
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| 4:11 |
: Zimmer is so much better than Taylor, although the slump isn’t ideal…
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| 4:11 |
: Thoughts on Willie Calhoun. Will he be up in September? What do you see as his ceiling next year in terms of avg and Hr?
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| 4:12 |
: Need to see him playing in the majors, seems like a legit bat. He’ll probably be up in September, but I still can’t find a way to play him regularly
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| 4:12 |
: Dynasty format: Judge or Bellinger career?
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| 4:12 |
: I’m all for Judge
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| 4:12 |
: He has Stanton power. Bellinger’s power is more comparable to a guy like Dozier
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| 4:13 |
: He CAN hit a bunch of HR, but there will be years when he doesn’t
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| 4:13 |
: A healthy Judge is going to mash mash mash
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| 4:13 |
: Am I crazy for continuing to start Jose Peraza? I feel like there’s some stolen bases waiting to happen but they just aren’t
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| 4:13 |
: That horse looks pretty dead to me
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| 4:13 |
: Losing playing time too
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| 4:13 |
: 14 team 2 C league. Just lost McCann, any suggestions on who may be available that can be useful?
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| 4:14 |
: Alex Avila, Robinson Chirinos, and Miguel Montero recently gained fairly full time jobs
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| 4:14 |
: Might see one of Flowers or Suzuki on the wire
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| 4:14 |
: Austin Barnes is having a top 15 season despite being a backup
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| 4:14 |
: James McCann rocks LHP, Rupp is a lesser version
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| 4:14 |
: I think that about covers it
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| 4:15 |
: Would you trade Machado for Bellinger in a keep forever points league?
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| 4:15 |
: I think I prefer Machado. It’s close.
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| 4:15 |
: I don’t think you’re really “wrong” with either of them
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| 4:15 |
: Is Avisail Garcia part of the White Sox rebuild? Think he can breakout like Ozuna?
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| 4:16 |
: Ugh, I’ve been a Garcia pessimist for half a decade now. I think his skill set is far too limited to be a starting OFer. He’s like a better Yasmany Tomas.
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| 4:16 |
: And the better part only applies to 2017
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| 4:16 |
: ottoneu FG Points…was sitting good on pitching at the start of the year, now it doesn’t seem like I’ll hit 1500 IP (on pace 1425) thanks to injuries, I have 6 SPs and only a couple (C-Mart and Scherzer) that I trust on a regular basis (Folty, E-Rod, Odorizzi and Davies are the others). Got a bunch of relief pitching though. Anyone you recommend to go after? Worth looking at someone like Banda, Bettis or Montero?
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| 4:17 |
: Trevor Williams is a guy I’ve been hyping recently. Make sure you hit your cap. Even if you’re only getting 3 pts/IP, it’s well worth covering those last 75 innings
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| 4:17 |
: Standard 5×5 roto, not keepers or anything. I just traded Anthony Rendon, Alex Wood, and Ken Giles for Manny Machado. Fair deal?
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| 4:17 |
: You done screwed up
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| 4:17 |
: Rendon was the best player in that swap
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| 4:18 |
: Machado is capable of making you look smart though
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| 4:18 |
: He’s the more talented player, but he’s having a weird season and his supporting cast isn’t nearly as potent
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| 4:18 |
: Although, I say that knowing the O’s have the top offense over the last month
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| 4:18 |
: Tim Beckham going wild…
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| 4:19 |
: Did i not have enough wherewithal this last start or am i not as good as you think i am (top 10-15 pitcher)?
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| 4:19 |
: He’s hurt
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| 4:19 |
: Do you believe in Whit Merrifield?
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| 4:19 |
: Ish
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| 4:19 |
: Not sure he’s really a .300 hitter, but he does seem to be a 15/15 guy with a good lineup role
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| 4:19 |
: and that coveted 20/20 upside
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| 4:19 |
: I’m falling out of the race in my 12 team points H2H, and I was offered Gallo and Danny Duffy for JD Martinez. Duffy isn’t a keeper consideration, but I could keep Gallo for $6 next year, whereas I could keep JD for $22. Make the deal?
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| 4:20 |
: That’s tough. Gallo is a massive volatility investment
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| 4:20 |
: could return anywhere between -$15 and $35
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| 4:20 |
: JDM is far more reliable, but he’s also aging. Nor do we know where he’ll play next year
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| 4:21 |
: I traded for Domingo Santana right after his slump started (too new to see at the time). SHould I be holding? I just lost Harper, and need a boost.
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| 4:21 |
: I think you gotta hold. Lot of talent there
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| 4:21 |
: Any thoughts on Mitch Garver?
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| 4:21 |
: Not really
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| 4:22 |
: He’s a bit old to be a prospect, although catchers are often late bloomers
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| 4:22 |
: I have no info on his defense which is the most important trait to consider
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| 4:22 |
: Chapman given the dreaded vote of confidence. Is my straight jacket theory of him getting demoted from last week holding more water for you? If you had to pick between Betances and Robertson, who ya got?
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| 4:23 |
: Still leaning Betances way if anything happens
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| 4:23 |
: Would you stick with Grandal for the stretch run? Or would you drop him for J. McCann or Avila? (12-team OBP)
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| 4:23 |
: I’m sticking
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| 4:23 |
: Is it worth getting excited about a Glasnow September call-up after his recent stint in AAA or are you still concerned about control issues coming back to haunt him? Looks like pitching exclusively from the stretch has helped him to limit walks
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| 4:23 |
: Excited might be a strong word, but I’ll stash him anytime I have the opportunity
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| 4:24 |
: There’s a reason the scouting community loves him
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| 4:24 |
: Acuna or Guerrero – who’s the better fantasy player long term?
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| 4:24 |
: Acuna by virtue of thriving in Triple-A. Vlad still has a lot to prove
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| 4:24 |
: Samardzija or Keuchel for 2018
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| 4:24 |
: Keuchel for ceiling, Shark for floor
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| 4:25 |
: Who do you prefer in a dynasty – Jimmy Nelson or Rodon?
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| 4:25 |
: Nelson. Rodon still gives me indigestion
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| 4:25 |
: He’s like Michael Pineda – too good to be a reliever, but also much better suited as a reliever
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| 4:26 |
: 5×5 12 team keeper league — Is Bogaerts clear cut better keeper over J. Lamb and Miggy?
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| 4:26 |
: Over Miggy, yes
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| 4:26 |
: Not over Lamb. That’s a decision for a latter day
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| 4:26 |
: How is Bradley Zimmer owned in less than 30 percent of fantasy leagues?
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| 4:26 |
: I don’t know, I recommend rostering him every single day
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| 4:26 |
: Lamet, Odorizzi, Bauer…in on any of them in a 12 teamer or just a streamer based on matchups?
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| 4:27 |
: Bauer looks like he’s figured things out again
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| 4:27 |
: He’ll probably un-figure them out eventually
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| 4:27 |
: but you can ride the wave until it happens
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| 4:27 |
: Better late-season save stash: Familia or Barraclough?
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| 4:27 |
: Familia
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| 4:27 |
: Is Xander droppable in a 16-team league? Dude’s been terrible since his hand injury and providing no power.
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| 4:28 |
: I had to check to make sure you weren’t talking about some other Xander
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| 4:28 |
: No, you can not cut Xander Bogaerts in a 16 team league
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| 4:28 |
: Or a 10 team league
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| 4:28 |
: Like what you see from Hoskins so far?
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| 4:28 |
: Well I like what I saw yesterday
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| 4:28 |
: I also like that it coincided with me recommending him in multiple columns 🙂
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| 4:29 |
: Is Amed Rosario worth keeping over Boegarts?
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| 4:29 |
: Lots of Bogaerts doubt today
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| 4:30 |
: It’s possible Rosario is keepable over him depending on the format and rules. Would need to be pretty special circumstances. Or a Rnd 2 cost versus a Rnd 25 cost.
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| 4:30 |
: Rosario looks overmatched to me. I don’t think we’re going to get any instant gratification from him
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| 4:30 |
: Eric did call him arguably the best prospect in baseball
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| 4:30 |
: He certainly knows more about prospects than me
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| 4:30 |
: Do you really think that Buck Showalter will bench Beckham for hardy when Hardy comes off the DL? I know Buck likes his vets, but Beckham is crushing…
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| 4:30 |
: Absolutely not
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| 4:31 |
: Fowler or Pham ROS?
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| 4:31 |
: Fowler
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| 4:31 |
: I dropped Thames for Hoskins a couple days ago, why did I make the right/wrong move?
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| 4:31 |
: I think that’s close to a push
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| 4:31 |
: Similar risk/reward profiles, albeit for very different reasons
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| 4:31 |
: Hey Brad, Carlos Santana or Carlos Gonzalez ROS?
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| 4:32 |
: Gonzalez has to be close to losing playing time
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| 4:32 |
: The Rockies actually need him to produce and have alternatives
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| 4:32 |
: The Indians need Santana too, but they have fewer alternatives
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| 4:32 |
: So.. Santana
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| 4:32 |
: Think Raisel is set as closer or will the Reds think about moving him back to the rotation for next year?
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| 4:33 |
: No, they don’t think he has the durability
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| 4:33 |
: Trade deadline coming up and need to trade for a bat to replace Harper (OBP format). Who would you target: Gallo, Dozier, Moustakas, or Schoop?
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| 4:33 |
: All else equal, Dozier
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| 4:33 |
: Although, I’d take whoever costs the least points elsewhere
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| 4:33 |
: Giancarlo first round pick next year?
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| 4:33 |
: Yessir
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| 4:34 |
: Should have been this year. One of those all-too-obvious bargains
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| 4:34 |
: Always a few of those in the early rounds
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| 4:34 |
: Stupidly good players coming off bad seasons
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| 4:34 |
: It’s early. A lot can happen. Pick three keepers: Posey, Freeman, Rizzo, J. Ramirez, C. Seager, Rendon, Judge, Pollock, Conforto, Sano.
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| 4:34 |
: Whoa…that’s quite the list
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| 4:34 |
: Judge, Rizzo, Seager?
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| 4:35 |
: Further analysis might push me in another direction, but I’m not going to do that 🙂
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| 4:35 |
: I have Michael Taylor in a 12 tm H2H…worth dropping for any of the following? –> Choo, Suarez, E. Rosario (don’t need a particular position)
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| 4:35 |
: I like Choo and Suarez more
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| 4:35 |
: Thoughts on Bauer? Was all ready to drop him for a streamer last week when I noticed that he’s rolling with a top 10 K/9 (and with fewer walks, too).
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| 4:35 |
: Hang onto him for now
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| 4:35 |
: Don’t be surprised when he squats all over your ratios one day
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| 4:35 |
: Easier to chase wins or saves at this point in the season?
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| 4:36 |
: Saves are always easier to chase
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| 4:36 |
: Wins are just so random
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| 4:36 |
: Chances Rosario matches Bogaerts’s production next year?
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| 4:36 |
: 30%? I have no means of accurately predicting that
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| 4:36 |
: Would you start either of Hellboy v. Angels or Pruitt v. Seattle in an AL Only? Thanks!
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| 4:37 |
: I think they’re both playable in AL Only if you need the innings. What’s the top ERA in that format? Like 3.90?
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| 4:37 |
: Thinking of trading for Greinke in a keeper league with an eye to next year. Expect a serious dropoff from this year?
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| 4:37 |
: No, probably more of the same
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| 4:37 |
: Not 2016 but also not 2015
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| 4:37 |
: Would you trade Robles, Vlad Jr, and Juan Soto for Goldschmidt and Brendan Rodgers in a dynasty league? I’m in second and just lost Harper. Really need hitting.
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| 4:37 |
: It’s a steep but fair price
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| 4:38 |
: You may kick yourself in five years, but you should enjoy the interim
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| 4:38 |
: What’s your take on strategy in a 14 cat league, where pitching stats are QS/IP/K/ERA/WHIP/S? Seems like half my league streams and the other doesn’t. Kinda weird set up, and not sure if I straddle the 2 or go for one side
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| 4:38 |
: Kind of depends on league depth and what you land in the draft
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| 4:39 |
: Certainly devalues pitching since you almost have to punt 2 or 3 categories
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| 4:39 |
: I’d try to do the zigging while others zag
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| 4:39 |
: That may mean drafting Kershaw, Scherzer, and Sale then also streaming
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| 4:39 |
: plenty of different ways to skin the cat
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| 4:39 |
: Has Aaron Nola graduated to ace status if he stays healthy?
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| 4:40 |
: Like Cole Hamels grade ace
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| 4:40 |
: You buying Pat Corbin? Results up and down but consistently solid peripherals (top 20 SwK and FpK)
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| 4:40 |
: Not really. Too consistently mediocre
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| 4:40 |
: In a keeper league w/ dump trades, a manager in the hunt wants to acquire a keeper stud for the stretch run from a team that’s dumping (for a decent keeper) with the promise that he’ll deal the stud back to said team during the off-season at a steep discount. Smells fishy but not necessary illegal. Your take?
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| 4:40 |
: This is collusion
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| 4:41 |
: Collusion is the c-word of fantasy sports
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| 4:41 |
: Usually, either the offenders are kicked out or the league dies
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| 4:41 |
: It would be fine if the guy says something like “I’m totally open to trading him back to you at the end of the season”
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| 4:41 |
: He can even list the players he’d like
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| 4:42 |
: but the “discount” component is a red flag
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| 4:42 |
: Every owner should have the same opportunity to acquire the player
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| 4:42 |
: Skipping from 4:25 to the present
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| 4:42 |
: Your take on Luis Castillo in a dynasty league
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| 4:43 |
: Very interesting, shouldn’t be viewed as a can’t miss stud
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| 4:43 |
: but he might get there
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| 4:43 |
: He’s very hyped which really messes with his value
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| 4:43 |
: I’d equate him to an early career Robbie Ray, except Ray was much less liked
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| 4:44 |
: I drafted Thames, and now I’m stuck with buyer’s remorse. I missed the boat on trading him, didn’t I? I had a buddy warn me…
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| 4:44 |
: I still like him a lot. I think he’s been playing banged up since early May
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| 4:44 |
: Old man body probably needs more off days
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| 4:44 |
: Deshields starting again today, worth an add in 10 team al only?
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| 4:44 |
: Yes, that’s a deep format. He runs frequently
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| 4:45 |
: Three keepers from this bunch: Trout Machado Springer Rizzo J. Ramirez
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| 4:45 |
: It’s funny when people send lists like these
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| 4:45 |
: You really can’t go wrong as long as one of them is Trout
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| 4:45 |
: Do you fall in the Bryce Harper is always hurt camp? Trying to trade him for KB or Altuve
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| 4:46 |
: The players who aren’t always hurt are the outliers. I don’t think Harper is especially injury prone or anything
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| 4:46 |
: I’ve thought the same of Giancarlo all along too
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| 4:46 |
: How do you rank Treinen, Ziegler, and Hildenberger? Not necessarily desperate for saves on my team but prefer my opponents not have them.
|
| 4:46 |
: Treinen then ugh
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| 4:47 |
: Probably Hildenberger over Ziegler
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| 4:47 |
: Whats value of a good SP closer (Iglesias) in daily H2H categories league? Around Jon Lester value?
|
| 4:47 |
: We’re late in the season, it’s all about the number of points up for grabs
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| 4:48 |
: If one blue chip closer is worth 10 points to you, then he might be worth Chris Sale. If it’s only worth one point, then you have to find a SP that’s worth 0 to you
|
| 4:48 |
: Or vice versa
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| 4:48 |
: Points are all that matter
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| 4:48 |
: And if it’s a H2H league, then it’s a little less crazy
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| 4:49 |
: So do you think I could be an ace? Also, do you think the Reds shut me down soon over innings concerns?
|
| 4:49 |
: Maybe, and maybe
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| 4:49 |
: How can I can prepare for the fantasy playoffs (trade deadline over)? Any advice from a vet such as yourself?
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| 4:49 |
: The playoffs, unfortunately, are pretty random
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| 4:49 |
: You can try to plan for your expected opponents
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| 4:50 |
: Last year, I managed to snag 2nd with a 6th place regular season team by trading my power for speed. I regularly swept the pitching categories but struggled on offense. Netting saves was enough to get me to the championship round
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| 4:51 |
: Without trades available, it’s mostly just preparing to finally cut those Villars and Storys
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| 4:51 |
: I’d wait until the actual playoffs though, just in case
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| 4:51 |
: Villar has looked good for the last few games. Do you think he sees enough playing time ROS to get back on track, or has he blown his opportunity for this season?
|
| 4:51 |
: A common misconception is that all hitters are better off playing every day
|
| 4:52 |
: Many will maximize their performance on a rate basis by playing every other day. I think Tyler Flowers/Kurt Suzuki are a nice example
|
| 4:52 |
: And it’s certainly more necessary for catchers
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| 4:52 |
: So you might get more out of semi-part time Villar than full time Villar
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| 4:52 |
: The Brewers roster is quite cramped
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| 4:53 |
: Joey Votto is a top-5 pick next year, right?
|
| 4:53 |
: I don’t see how
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| 4:53 |
: So many amazingly good players
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| 4:53 |
: I have a Xander/Story battery at SS in a 12 team dynasty league; any recommendation on a stop-gag SS to stop the hemorrhaging?
|
| 4:54 |
: If it’s not too deep, maybe Paul DeJong?
|
| 4:54 |
: Freddy Galvis?
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| 4:54 |
: You’re not really going to improve upon them with the waiver wire
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| 4:54 |
: A guy in a keeper traded away Kyle Seager for Brian Goodwin and a guy who got sent down who he then cut. Bad trade, obviously. League is being dramatic and locking his team, kicking him out. Oh yeah, he’s my dad. Justified for me to leave? Weird stuff?
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| 4:54 |
: If you don’t love the league, then take a hike
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| 4:55 |
: I assume this is the latest in a long series of bad trades
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| 4:55 |
: Did I overvalue Harper’s longterm value in my 12-tm roto keeper league by rejecting Lindor/Jose Ramirez for Harper (even after Harper’s injury)? Players can be kept at no cost or round association forever. I’m currently in first place with padding in the offensive stats.
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| 4:55 |
: No, I’d turn that down too
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| 4:55 |
: That deal’s an entire Jose Ramirez short
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| 4:55 |
: Or at least a Kyle Seager
|
| 4:55 |
: Who are you drafting next year for a play-all-positions guy next year? Marwin Gonzalez, Edwardo Nunez, or Chris Taylor?
|
| 4:56 |
: Whichever comes with the least opportunity cost
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| 4:56 |
: Though I like Marwin least
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| 4:56 |
: I’m in first place and feel like I’m too reliant on unproven hitting. I have Moncada, Hoskins, Pham, and Benintendi in a 5 OF league that also uses MI and CI. We only keep 9, so not dynasty, should I move on from Moncada to get the likes of Arcia, Galvis, or Villar? Should I move on from Pham who’s slowed down? I just cut Thames and Alonso recently as well, seems like all my hitting is cooling off at the same time!
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| 4:57 |
: If the options are Arcia, Galvis, and Villar, I’d only move on if I was targeting specific production
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| 4:57 |
: Nothing wrong with piecing things together
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| 4:57 |
: Thoughts on Lamet as a minimum salary keeper?
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| 4:57 |
: Absent other opportunity costs, you can do it
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| 4:57 |
: I wouldn’t
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| 4:57 |
: But I’m very confident he’s only a reliever
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| 4:58 |
: Most people should be less confident and therefore willing to roll the dice
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| 4:58 |
: When is it time to give up on Moncada in a re-draft, points league?
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| 4:58 |
: I mean, he was always just an interesting streamer
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| 4:58 |
: It’s not really giving up
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| 4:58 |
: In an AVG/OPS league that also counts BB, how valuable do you see Rhys being as a sneaky keeper? Can’t predict next six weeks of course, but is the fact that he’s a slow 1B depressed the hype train?
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| 4:58 |
: I think the fact he’s a Phillie is the main culprit
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| 4:58 |
: They haven’t produced a meaningful prospect in a long time
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| 4:59 |
: For fantasy purposes that is
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| 4:59 |
: Odubel doesn’t count, he was a Rule 5 pick
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| 4:59 |
: Just got offered Manuel Margot ($4) and Taillon ($13) for Brad Hand ($4) and Carlos Carrasco ($15) in a dynasty league. Think Margot makes it worth it? I never trust keeping closers…
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| 4:59 |
: That may work out. Some of people I know really think there’s a lot more in the tank for Margot
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| 4:59 |
: And Carrasco isn’t exactly durable
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| 5:00 |
: Depends how long you can keep Margot under $10 I think
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| 5:00 |
: Keep two of these SPs in keep forever roto league: Nola, Goldey, Jimmy Nelson…or do you like them all enough to keep over Smoak?
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| 5:00 |
: Nola/Godley for me
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| 5:00 |
: Smoak’s a weird one, we’re going to have to talk about him in the offseason
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| 5:01 |
: Safe to cut Syndergaard in a league that ends on 9/17?
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| 5:01 |
: Yes, what are you likely to miss? A couple starts at most
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| 5:01 |
: They’ve have to be damned good to be worth more than the roster spot
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| 5:01 |
: No one cares about how you did in your public leagues last year
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| 5:01 |
: Trust me, people care.
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| 5:01 |
: And if you think I have any public leagues…
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| 5:02 |
: in a vacuum, Is Stanton a keeper for $26 in a 12 team Roto league?
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| 5:02 |
: Easily
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| 5:02 |
: Am I wasting a roster spot stashing Willie Calhoun in an AL 10 team keeper? I could drop him for Deshields/Cron or try to snag a reliever for Holds/Saves. Really my biggest area for improvement right now is in HRs/RBIs/SB
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| 5:02 |
: Sort of. If he’s blocking you from making money, then it’s a problem
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| 5:02 |
: If you’re a long shot to make more with another active player, he’s probably worth a cheap keep
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| 5:03 |
: Guy traded Brantley for McGowan yesterday and promptly dropped McGowan. Collusion? Should that trade be reversed?
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| 5:03 |
: I don’t know what that is…
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| 5:03 |
: But if it’s redraft, he was probably planning to cut Brantley, got offered a player he liked more, then found another guy on the wire
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| 5:03 |
: Do 1B lose keeper value when we’ve seen players at their position this season come out of the woodwork and become 30+ HR players?
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| 5:04 |
: Too soon to react that strongly
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| 5:04 |
: The LoMos and Smoaks could all disappear next year
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| 5:04 |
: We know the Rizzos and Goldys aren’t likely to vanish
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| 5:05 |
: So I think I’ll be regressing 2017 production very heavily with the hopes that everybody else doesn’t
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| 5:05 |
: With any luck, that’ll lead me to a higher floor roster without sacrificing much ceiling
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| 5:05 |
: Way too early though…
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| 5:05 |
: Is there an optimal number of keepers for a 12 tm H2H league? We have 5, but it seems like that is too little
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| 5:05 |
: My preference is for unlimited with costs
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| 5:06 |
: That allows for interesting optimization and varied tactics
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| 5:06 |
: Why do leagues still use average and Wins? OBP and QS are much better and rankings need to be adjusted for those stats
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| 5:06 |
: AVG is the very best stat in fantasy baseball IMO
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| 5:06 |
: I remember crusading against it 10 years ago
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| 5:07 |
: However, I’ve grown to appreciate it because it’s not highly correlated to the other offensive categories
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| 5:07 |
: That means a manager has to make more decisions beyond rostering the most Trout-like Trouts he can find
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| 5:07 |
: Well, Trout’s a bad example
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| 5:08 |
: But I’m sure you take my point
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| 5:08 |
: Wins are similarly uncorrelated with other categories, although I’m often annoyed by how unpredictable they can be
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| 5:08 |
: Altuve ,Trout,Paxton, and Bumgarner for Greinke, AWood, Ozuna, Merrifield and Smoak?
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| 5:09 |
: Trout alone is better than the other 5. Maybe Altuve too
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| 5:09 |
: Time to wrap it up, I have other works to complete
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| 5:09 |
: Trea Turner top pick after Trout next year? Steals are scarce. Or at least good players who can get a lot of them.
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| 5:09 |
: No, can’t go that far
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| 5:09 |
: Goldy and Betts steal without the craterous floor
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| 5:10 |
: There is still a chance Turner has a terrible season. Or even just mediocre
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| 5:10 |
: He’s not quite can’t miss
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| 5:11 |
: Jose Ramirez or Mookie betts in dynasty?
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| 5:11 |
: Betts
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| 5:11 |
: You a believer in Hoskins? How many bombs does he hit in 2018?
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| 5:11 |
: Yes, 30
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You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Please, more Brad Johnson chats. He, Sawchik and Cameron are, by-far, the best of the FanGraph chatters, IMHO. They stick to baseball and don’t waste time rattling on about beer, music or other sports.
Thanks! To be fair, I’d talk about other things if I knew about other things. Nobody’s asked a question about fantasy fiction yet…
I concur. I come here to learn about MLB not IPA’s.