Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 8/21/2018
Here is today’s chat transcript.
| 4:01 |
: Hey folks, we’ll get started here in a minute |
| 4:02 |
: Let’s say Vlad comes up in September and hits his Steamer projection (.300/.364/.490). Does he go top 30 next year? |
| 4:03 |
: Here’s my take on Vlad. At this point, he wouldn’t be in the minor leagues if there was any chance in hell he was going to be on major league roster before ~April 15. It’s not happening |
| 4:03 |
: The dream is over. I’m sorry. |
| 4:03 |
: Does the Matt Adams trade now mean Zimmerman will get most of the at-bats at 1st for the Nationals? I’m surprised to see he is actually worse vs RH pitching than Reynolds! |
| 4:04 |
: Yea, Zim should play most days when healthy with Reynolds clearing about a third of the reps. |
| 4:04 |
: They’re both old and probably injury prone. Getting them rest is best long term. |
| 4:04 |
: I’m running out of room on my roster – who should I keep – Dee Gordon or Adelberto Mondesi? Thanks to a month long slump for Dee, Its closer than you think! |
| 4:04 |
: Dee |
| 4:04 |
: Is Gio droppable after his last few starts? |
| 4:05 |
: That’s going to depend on format. He was always a good, brand name streamer in 12 team mixed |
| 4:05 |
: Trevor Cahill and Kyle Gibson have been obviously better than him all year with lower ownership |
| 4:05 |
: Does Tyler White have an every day role when everyone is healthy on the Astros? Shouldn’t he? |
| 4:06 |
: No and no |
| 4:06 |
: He’s not very good. |
| 4:06 |
: I could see some breakout potential |
| 4:06 |
: upon a closer glance |
| 4:07 |
: He needs his fly ball rate to increase to where it was in the minors and last season. That combination would make him look like a RH Muncy/Nimmo |
| 4:07 |
: With the current GB rate, he’s just a 110 wRC+ 1B |
| 4:08 |
: How confident are you in Odor’s improvements? Would you try to trade him for Correa in dynasty? |
| 4:09 |
: ok so I’ve looked at his last two months… |
| 4:10 |
: And I’m not see much difference from earlier in the season. |
| 4:11 |
: What I think happened here is that he made some adjustments between season, stuck with them, and is finally getting rewarded. He’s been more selective this year and that looks real |
| 4:11 |
: And now he’s getting some benefits from the selectivity |
| 4:11 |
: I’ll say he’s somewhere in between the early-season scrub and the monster he’s been lately |
| 4:11 |
: So maybe a 120 wRC+ 2B with shapely fantasy production |
| 4:12 |
: Most fun team to watch in baseball this year? |
| 4:12 |
: Lately, the Athletics. Overall, the Astros |
| 4:12 |
: Cleveland would be up there if their lineup wasn’t so top heavy |
| 4:12 |
: And if Bradley Zimmer were around to make LOL catches in CF |
| 4:13 |
: Are there any mid-season tools that you recommend for calculating Roto points projections for current points vs. end of season? |
| 4:13 |
: Gotta hand calc that stuff |
| 4:13 |
: It’s not worth the effort. Focus on managing your talent. |
| 4:14 |
: We all obviously love projections here at FanGraphs but they’re difficult to leverage with 1/4 of a season left |
| 4:14 |
: First time Ottoneu player taking over a team midseason. Are JD Martinez at $44 and Sale at $50 keepers? |
| 4:14 |
: That’s going to depend on your roster construction. |
| 4:14 |
: For a typical abandoned team, yes. |
| 4:15 |
: Safe to drop Rondon now? Need room for Jansen coming off the DL |
| 4:15 |
: Yes |
| 4:15 |
: Is Yu Darvish done for the year? I’d like to go ahead and drop him to free up a roster space. |
| 4:15 |
: Seems likely. If he comes back, it’s probably as a reliever. |
| 4:15 |
: McHugh has been a great half-SP for me this year, but he’s been getting beat up a bit lately. Should I cut bait, or do you think he’ll be fine the rest of the way? |
| 4:16 |
: There’s a decent chance he’s fatiguing in the second half. Multi-inning relief is very difficult to maintain for more than half a season. |
| 4:16 |
: WHEN ELOY TIME? |
| 4:16 |
: I’m a little more hopeful we’ll see him than Vlad. But I wouldn’t be surprised if mid-April is the answer. |
| 4:16 |
: Is it ok to start Odor over Dozier ROS? |
| 4:16 |
: Yes. |
| 4:16 |
: Although I assume you can use both with a UTIL and play matchups |
| 4:17 |
: Am I crazy for regularly starting Jason Heyward in my 12-teamer? I know the power isn’t really there these days, but he plays every day, is hitting well and is in a real good lineup. |
| 4:17 |
: He’s kind of like Josh Reddick. It’s not crazy, but you should be looking to improve. He’s giving you 3 categories, it’s just that most fantasy analysis focuses on HR or SB |
| 4:17 |
: And he won’t give you those. |
| 4:18 |
: Daniel Murphy fantasy stock up or down after move to Cubs? Read into Madden’s mind for us. How will he be deployed? |
| 4:18 |
: Oh boy… |
| 4:18 |
: I think this is a stock down situation |
| 4:19 |
: He’ll play 4 times a week with maybe some ugly 3B work mixed in until Bryant is back |
| 4:19 |
: Mostly he’s there for preemptive depth and veterany feelings |
| 4:19 |
: How do you the Matt Adams trade impacting playing time for the Cards? Does Adams start against righties most of the time? He seems like an under-appreciated hitter against righties. |
| 4:20 |
: I guess Jose Martinez plays a little less often? It’s already a logjammed roster |
| 4:20 |
: I think Adams mostly is used as a pinch hitter |
| 4:21 |
: How real is this current incarnation of Wheeler? |
| 4:21 |
: Well that’s a little tricky. I think it’s real in the sense that he’s improved his command and is a legitimately solid pitcher – he’s basically what everybody wants Mike Foltynewicz to be. |
| 4:22 |
: But… you should also take a gander at the strength of his schedule. He beat up a lot of scrub lineups. |
| 4:22 |
: In redraft leagues, do you change your threshold for holding/dropping a player as we enter the stretch run? |
| 4:22 |
: Manage the stats |
| 4:22 |
: If the waiver wire offers you the stats you need, take them |
| 4:23 |
: Be mindful of what your opponents need too |
| 4:24 |
: Should I be worried about Ozzie? |
| 4:25 |
: I mean, this was always going to happen. The signs were there all along. He’ll adjust or bounce back next year. He’s talented, but growth isn’t linear. |
| 4:25 |
: You’re kinda stuck using him though |
| 4:25 |
: Is winker a reasonable guy to hang onto as a cheap keeper in a league where I’m toast? |
| 4:25 |
: I am |
| 4:25 |
: 5×5 ottoneu – 19$ Merrifield and 14$ Segura , thoughts return? Been looking for at least one high level prospect but market has been tepid. |
| 4:28 |
: Thoughts on Phil Ervin who is looking awfully good in the 5-spot for the Reds! |
| 4:28 |
: Whoops, typed Mike’s response in the wrong field 🙂 |
| 4:28 |
: multitasking! |
| 4:28 |
: Uh, I’d probably just keep Merrifield and Segura for winter talks and to absorb a couple arb dollars |
| 4:28 |
: SB are tough |
| 4:29 |
: As for Ervin, I’m not quite on the bandwagon yet. |
| 4:29 |
: They scouting report has always been too much weak contact and pop ups. |
| 4:29 |
: The weak contact hasn’t been bad this year, the hard contact rate is even pretty decent. He still has a ludicrous infield fly rate |
| 4:30 |
: Once that LD rate regresses to normal, he’s probably a 90 wRC+ guy |
| 4:30 |
: Great real world 4th outfielder, interesting fantasy categories when playing every day, but not a world beater either |
| 4:32 |
: Do you enjoy chats? |
| 4:32 |
: I do! |
| 4:33 |
: In a keeper league should I keep Acuna or Soto? |
| 4:33 |
: You have to choose? |
| 4:34 |
: Acuna will steal some bases. I tend to lean towards the 5 category profile when forced between two elite talents |
| 4:34 |
: You didn’t mention Tyler Oneil in your Matt Adams answer. He going to play less now? |
| 4:35 |
: Honestly, I don’t know how the Cardinals could play Adams/Martinez in the OF and claim to be trying to win. |
| 4:36 |
: Maybe in very specific matchups |
| 4:37 |
: I think we need to see how the Cards plan to use Adams |
| 4:37 |
: I can’t swallow him as more than a pinch hitter/1B platoon |
| 4:37 |
: Was it a mistake to drop Max Muncy? |
| 4:37 |
: Yes? Depends on your league depth and needs |
| 4:38 |
: Like I said before, manage the stats |
| 4:38 |
: Dereck Rodriguez is obviously not a ~2 ERA guy. But with a combination of his home park, his deep repitoire, and his soft contact inducing abilities, is he a 3.50-4.00 guy going forward? |
| 4:38 |
: Should be able to do that, yea |
| 4:38 |
: The Rockies are going to recall Matt Holliday (who is hitting in AAA) and dilute the playing time of Dahl even more, aren’t they? |
| 4:39 |
: It boggles the mind that they did not claim Daniel Murphy |
| 4:39 |
: I hate how the Rockies only ever try to improve their bullpen |
| 4:39 |
: They’re obsessed with the finishing touch when they don’t have a functional lineup |
| 4:40 |
: Anyway, yea, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Dahl lose time to bland veterans |
| 4:40 |
: I’m more upset about McMahon. He looks like the better player right now, and he’s blocked by Ian Desmond somehow. |
| 4:40 |
: Re: Matt Adams – Couldn’t they bench Gyorko against righties, play Adams at 1B and move Carpenter to 3b? Gyorko has an 89 wRC+ against righties. Adams has a 133 wRC+ against righties. |
| 4:41 |
: Yes, that’s how Martinez/Adams should be entering the lineup. |
| 4:41 |
: Although that’s pretty rough defensively too |
| 4:41 |
: if you were drafting a new dynasty league today, who is your #1-3? |
| 4:42 |
: Some mix of Vlad, Soto, and Acuna. Trout, Betts, and JRam in the mix too. They’re young enough and there’s something to be said for actualized, proven stars. |
| 4:42 |
: Up to you to decide on time horizons |
| 4:43 |
: contending now and traded rendon and giles (wouldn’t keep) for murphy, hill, and ozuna (I’ll keep both hitters) in a keeper league. how does this look for me? |
| 4:44 |
: I’m not especially keen of that for you since you’re contending. You dealt the best player and a useful counting stat (saves) for what I assume are marginal keepers and a decent/injury prone SP |
| 4:44 |
: I’d like it more if you were getting Rendon/Giles tbh |
| 4:44 |
: However, I don’t know your situation, needs, league depth, etc |
| 4:44 |
: Could be you solved some problems with expendable parts. |
| 4:45 |
: no love for Lindor on that dynasty top 3 is surprising |
| 4:45 |
: Why? |
| 4:45 |
: He’s fantastic – definitely a top 10 guy. Probably a first choice for 7th. But would you take him before the 6 I listed? |
| 4:46 |
: Fwiw, Wheeler will be beating up on bad lineups for the rest of the year. |
| 4:46 |
: This is true |
| 4:46 |
: If the question meant “will he keep this up,” then the answer is probably yes |
| 4:46 |
: I was asked if he’s real. And yea, I poked him once. |
| 4:47 |
: Starting Kopech tonite or wait one?? |
| 4:47 |
: I have one share, and I’m using it |
| 4:47 |
: Granted, it’s a ottoneu FGpts league where I’ll probably finish 5th |
| 4:47 |
: What are your thoughts on Nick Williams? |
| 4:47 |
: I like him. He’s often the best OF streamer on the waiver wire in 12 team mixed |
| 4:48 |
: I love him in that role, filling in as needed |
| 4:48 |
: He’s good enough to be owned outright too. |
| 4:48 |
: He’s improved steadily throughout the season |
| 4:48 |
: I like that his SwStr% is down from 19! percent to 12.8 percent |
| 4:48 |
: What’s wrong with Carlos Correa? Should I be benching him for Willy Adames until he shows something? |
| 4:49 |
: No, play Correa |
| 4:49 |
: With Bryce Harper inevitably leaving, where do you rank Victor Robles for next year? |
| 4:49 |
: I don’t rank period let alone in mid-August |
| 4:49 |
: For more on that, I’ll write about it plenty over the winter |
| 4:49 |
: My yearly tirade about rankings |
| 4:50 |
: I think you’re hoping for something like Starling Marte from Robles with the understanding that it could take a couple years to really come together |
| 4:50 |
: Not everybody can be Juan Soto |
| 4:50 |
: Is there any utility in trying to predict what positions will be weak in the next 5 years, or is that fluid? Could be helpful in looking towards prospects to trade for if out of it, but at the same time, 5 years ago ss was horrible. |
| 4:51 |
: It’s really not helpful. It’s even harder to predict where prospects will end up. |
| 4:51 |
: Alex Bregman wouldn’t have SS eligibility if Correa stayed healthy |
| 4:52 |
: Mookie Betts would be a 2B if not for Pedroia |
| 4:52 |
: Guys get pushed around pretty often |
| 4:52 |
: Hey Brad – thanks for the chat – have a question about an issue thats come up in my dynasty league…in years past some non competing teams would ignore the present so much they wouldn’t have enough active players to fill out a roster, instead using the roster spots to stash prospects. We’ve tried to combat these tanking efforts by enforcing a rule that every starting roster spot must have an active, healthy major leaguer but this has caused tensions both with non-competing teams and competitive teams who simply may not want to have a catcher or favor an extra SP over a RP so we’re trying to figure out another solution. Any ideas on how to combat the tanking issue? |
| 4:54 |
: The best way is to build rules encouraging nearly every owner to contend. In my home league, I do this with credits. The last two teams owe $40 dues, 10th place owes $35, and so on until the teams that win actual money |
| 4:54 |
: It’s effectively a $20 league |
| 4:55 |
: Forcing owners to play a certain way is a slippery slope. |
| 4:56 |
: I was warned for sitting Alex Bregman in a 20 team dynasty league I joined over the winter. Playing him and a couple others has pushed me from 19th to 14th which has cost me a shot at Acuna/Soto/Ohtani (can’t roster a player until the season after they debut) |
| 4:56 |
: That answer on top three for dynasty hurts my heart. I traded Soto and Vlad for Goldy last year. I won my league, but ultimately did not need Goldy to do so. |
| 4:57 |
: I drafted Vlad as a 15-year-old then traded him the January before the scouting report switched from “bad bodied 1B, possibly without enough bat” to “he’s the second coming” |
| 4:59 |
: I got a pick for him, I think I used it on Sean Doolittle, Pat Corbin, or Jae-gyun Hwang |
| 4:59 |
: In any case, ouch |
| 5:01 |
: Do you have a favourite hockey team? |
| 5:01 |
: The Fliers I guess? |
| 5:01 |
: I haven’t watched hockey in ages |
| 5:01 |
: Thoughts on Profar? Future 25/15 guy? |
| 5:02 |
: I dunno about all that |
| 5:02 |
: I did trade Justin Turner for him and Jose Peraza in the aforementioned weird 20 team dynasty league |
| 5:03 |
: It’s a possible outcome, but I see him more as a 20/10 guy |
| 5:03 |
: Dammit I always queue up the chat a few minutes early then forget about the tab and return to my WORK and then remember it a few minutes before it ends. Anyway, I clinched a playoff spot and dropped Ketel Marte for Luis Urias thinking the latter might make more noise. THOUGHTS? |
| 5:03 |
: I like Marte more personally. Urias could build more trade value than Marte in the near future. He’s a tough guy to gauge |
| 5:04 |
: I got caught with my pants down by Albies because I foresaw contact issues and 5 HR power. Urias has a similar lack of power, but I’m now hesitant to say it won’t magically appear |
| 5:05 |
: In my deep 16 player keeper league, the top 4 finish in the money and the bottom 4 have to pitch varying degrees of “pizza money” – this keeps the bottom feeders from totally throwing in the towel. |
| 5:05 |
: Is Eddie Rosario a top 50 player? He seems so streaky – does he end up at 30 homers and a 300 avg? Thanks! |
| 5:05 |
: I got a lot of questions about Eddie Rosario today |
| 5:05 |
: I don’t know why |
| 5:05 |
: He’s a very streaky player |
| 5:05 |
: This is who he is |
| 5:05 |
: Velazquez or Bryse Wilson ROS? |
| 5:05 |
: Gimme VV |
| 5:06 |
: Who do you prefer ROS… Rosario or Adames? |
| 5:06 |
: Adames |
| 5:06 |
: Eugenio Suarez – 35 homers/.290 avg – over/under? |
| 5:06 |
: under and over |
| 5:06 |
: Just guess, those are both right around the projection |
| 5:07 |
: Fliers, eh?! lol 🙂 |
| 5:07 |
: Heh |
| 5:07 |
: Like I said, it’s been awhile |
| 5:07 |
: I take fliers in fantasy baseball all the time. Not much use for Flyers |
| 5:07 |
: Will Herrera be closing out games for nats when he comes of the dl? |
| 5:07 |
: How many saves will Kelvin Herrera get ros? |
| 5:07 |
: Yes, assuming he’s not waiver traded |
| 5:08 |
: I’ll say 6.5 saves |
| 5:08 |
: Doolittle should return at SOME point |
| 5:08 |
: And Madson could jump in there too |
| 5:08 |
: % Chance Lindor is on the Indians roster post 2020 |
| 5:09 |
: He’s what? pre-arb3? Was he Super 2? In any case, I think he has 3 more club control years. |
| 5:09 |
: I doubt the Indians trade him. Not unless the AL Central adds a second team |
| 5:09 |
: It’s so easy to win one team divisions |
| 5:09 |
: What do you think about Rodon? Are we starting to see his ace potential? Is he a top 20 guy as soon as next year? |
| 5:10 |
: Welllllll |
| 5:10 |
: I like what I’ve seen this year, but his results are better than the inputs. |
| 5:10 |
: I think he’s going to get massively overhyped over the winter based on those quality results and the pedigree |
| 5:10 |
: however, among certain crowds like ours that are hyper-aware of peripherals, he may still be a good target |
| 5:11 |
: RE Albies/Urias power comparisons: Albies right before he came up was around 40% GB rate; Urias might physically have the strength to pop 15 or more homers but he’s going to be constricted by his 50% GB rate unless he does something about that |
| 5:11 |
: Right, but this is another thing I’m wary about making a fuss |
| 5:11 |
: It’s no secret that everybody wants to add fly balls |
| 5:11 |
: He could just lower his hands a little and hit more fly balls |
| 5:12 |
: The beautiful thing about that particular adjustment: some players also see an increase in contact rate (I did when I implemented it last year). |
| 5:12 |
: Are Ozzie and Acuna the most fun teammates to watch? |
| 5:12 |
: Nah |
| 5:13 |
: Ramirez and Lindor |
| 5:13 |
: Betts/JDM/Benintendo |
| 5:13 |
: Judge/Stanton (when healthy) |
| 5:13 |
: Whichever Astros you like most |
| 5:14 |
: Trout and David Fletcher |
| 5:14 |
: 🙂 |
| 5:14 |
: Time to wrap it up folks |
| 5:14 |
: In my fantasy football league, there are 6 playoff teams and six consolation bracket teams, the winner of the consolation bracket gets #1 pick the next year… the draft goes on the previous years standings: 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 5, 6, 3, 4, 2, 1. Everyone competes until the end because it’s imperative for the next year. |
| 5:14 |
: I’ve tried variations of that in the past. Messing with pick order is challenging |
| 5:15 |
: You want to encourage competitiveness without handicapping an ability to rebuild |
| 5:16 |
: The 14th place team – if trying – really needs that first pick |
| 5:16 |
: If they tanked, then it’s less clear who should get the pick |
| 5:16 |
: I’d like a lottery version of that more with all but the teams that make cash getting SOME balls |
| 5:17 |
: And 7th place getting a few more than last place |
| 5:17 |
: Not sure that would incentivize enough though |
| 5:17 |
: How’s Michael Fulmer’s wherewithal at this point in the season? |
| 5:17 |
: Wounded |
| 5:17 |
: Thoughts on Hoskins in 12tm Roto dynasty? I am in 1st right now, but I’m gonna need to move an OF. Have JDM, Harper, Soto, Cain, O’Neil, Peralta. What should I look to get for him? |
| 5:18 |
: A really good player? I’d hesitate to trade Hoskins right now. Maybe this is what he is, but there is monster potential lurking |
| 5:19 |
: In NFL snake draft, first pick isn’t always the most desirable. I’d rather have a middle-of-the-pack pick. |
| 5:19 |
: I assumed that was a keeper of some kind |
| 5:19 |
: Who do you got as your MVP so far this year? |
| 5:19 |
: Both leagues? Jose Ramirez |
| 5:19 |
: Good game folks |
| 5:20 |
: Starting Velazquez vs WAS tonight? |
| 5:20 |
: Yea |
| 5:20 |
: Phillip Ervin has 4 HR 16 RBI and a 1.012 OPS over the last month. Should I be adding in an OPS league over J. Bauers, T. O’Neil or Teoscar? |
| 5:20 |
: If you need SB? |
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