Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 7/18/2017
by Brad Johnson
July 18, 2017
Here’s today’s chat transcript. I probably could have spent more time on Correa, but you’ll get over it.
| 3:44 |
: Oh, hello there. It’s been a few weeks since we last convened. A lot has (not) happened.
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| 3:45 |
: I did learn today that I’ll be missing this year’s FanGraphs staff meetup, which is usually one of the highlights of the year. I’m a tad grumpy ’bout it.
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| 3:46 |
: Wedding with friends I rarely see is a good consolation prize. Anywho, y’all have already asked about 30 questions in the on minute this has been open
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| 3:46 |
: Welcome back Brad! In your notes today you say Pham should be owned in all leagues. My OF consists of Harper, Nelson Cruz, Conforto and Merrifield. (Start 3 OF). I need help mostly in avg, runs and steals. Should I drop Whit for Pham and use Conforto as my 4th OF?
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| 3:46 |
: I think those were somebody else’s notes. I think Pham should be on the waiver wire in about 85% of 12 team, mixed formats
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| 3:47 |
: He is, however, the very top streamer for 5 category production.
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| 3:47 |
: Think Claudio holds down the closer’s gig in Texas ROS?
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| 3:47 |
: No
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| 3:47 |
: Hey Brad, I held onto Story for too long and finally gave up on him, but now the SS wire is razor thin. Who are my best options among: Reyes, Beckham, Arcia, Miller? Anyone outside of the top 14 ss’s that you think could come on strong?
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| 3:47 |
: Arcia is mashing right now. Galvis is sneaky useful. Story is better than either.
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| 3:47 |
: Should I start Michael Wacha tonight?
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| 3:48 |
: That’s a big ol’ “it depends”
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| 3:48 |
: and what it depends upon is a long list of considerations including league depth and your statistics
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| 3:49 |
: He’s one of the better pitchers going tonight, but he’s also often a hot mess
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| 3:49 |
: Let’s get something out of the way. There have been about 25 SP who can be classified as good or better
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| 3:49 |
: excluding injured guys like MadBum and Thor
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| 3:50 |
: So that’s less than 1 merely good pitcher per MLB team and/or 2 per fantasy roster
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| 3:50 |
: In other words, that means you HAVE to use a whole slew of nightmares to hit innings caps. It’s a great year to have either overinvested in SP or go big on high K RP and punt wins
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| 3:51 |
: How that relates to using Wacha tonight… well, I don’t know
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| 3:51 |
: it’s situational
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| 3:51 |
: Sonny Gray and Yonder Alonso for Alex Bregman. Who says no (besides Alex Bregman, who thinks fans are dumb dumbs)?
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| 3:51 |
: For re-draft, Alonso is by far the best player in that swap
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| 3:51 |
: by miles and miles and miles
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| 3:52 |
: and he may soon be swinging in New York
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| 3:52 |
: Any of the following arms worth being owned in an 11-team AL-only league: Bridwell, Blackburn, J.C. Ramirez.
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| 3:52 |
: Yuck, and yea, probably all of them
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| 3:53 |
: 11 team AL means that basically every SP should be owned. 15 AL teams times 5 rotation jobs equals 75
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| 3:53 |
: 11 fantasy teams times 7 SP per roster equals 77
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| 3:53 |
: Who closes in Detroit if Justin Wilson gets dealt?
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| 3:54 |
: I tried to tackle that on Twitter yesterday. I think it may be Shane Greene. Or Alex Wilson. Or Bruce Rondon
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| 3:54 |
: Any way you slice it, you don’t want a piece of the pie
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| 3:54 |
: 15 team 5×5, Alonso+Mancini+H Perez or Schebler+Betances+Duda–Schebler is keepable next year but the rest are not. which side do you take if you are in it to win it?!
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| 3:55 |
: I’d take Betances and Schebler. Alonso is best player in the swap by a narrow margin, but Mancini and Perez are just volume plays
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| 3:55 |
: Robbie Ray and Cano for Rizzo and Paxton who wins
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| 3:55 |
: Riz and Pax
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| 3:55 |
: Why won’t the Orioles reinstate Britton at closer? Think they still have health concerns? Doesn’t that work against them if they are trying to pump his trade value?
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| 3:55 |
: They’re just playing it safe. It’ll happen any day now
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| 3:55 |
: Is rosenthall taking over the closer role or are we full blown committee for the rest of the year
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| 3:56 |
: The issue is that Rosenthal keeps flubbing his opportunities
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| 3:56 |
: and Oh hasn’t actually pitched that badly
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| 3:56 |
: Starling Marte back today. What are you expecting from him rest of season?
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| 3:56 |
: Preseason projections less time lost
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| 3:56 |
: Judge or Harper ROS?
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| 3:56 |
: The FanGraphs analyst in me is forced to say Harper
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| 3:57 |
: Though owning either player is a huge win for your roster
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| 3:57 |
: Is there any reason to think Kinsler turns it around this year or is he done?
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| 3:57 |
: Well, there is a third option – he scuffles through 2017 then returns healthy and effective in 2018
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| 3:58 |
: I don’t think he’s done done, but he may not rebound much this year
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| 3:58 |
: are you buying, selling, or holding Kyle Hendricks in a dynasty? That 2mph drop in velocity is no bueno
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| 3:59 |
: Holding. The velo isn’t a big concern to me so long as his major joints seem healthy. He’s a Greg Maddux type so I really just want to see him hitting spots
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| 4:00 |
: even the declined performance he’s posted this season is easily playable
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| 4:00 |
: and he could recover that velo and upside at any time
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| 4:00 |
: We discovered one the the co-commissioners in our league has been retroactively changing his roster after games begin to get guys in who have hit HRs or thrown QSs. He did this 5 times. ESPN will not let us retroactively undo the changes. What is the solution? He’s been disqualified for the season and all keepers stripped. Is this over, or something else we can do?
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| 4:01 |
: Sounds done to me. I would have kicked him outright, but you may reasons for not doing that.
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| 4:01 |
: Alonso or gyorko ROS? Alonso is on waivers considering picking him up
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| 4:01 |
: Alonso as long as position isn’t an issue
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| 4:01 |
: Grandal is quietly having a down year– walk rate is at a career low and power has dropped. Would you take Avila or Flowers over him for the rest of this season?
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| 4:01 |
: I’d go with Avila
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| 4:02 |
: Also, an interesting note, Austin Barnes has been borderline 12-team playable this season despite his backup role
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| 4:02 |
: and I mean in 1 catcher formats
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| 4:02 |
: Is Carpenter for LeMahieu and Berrios a fair swap (OBP league)?
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| 4:02 |
: With pitching as rare as it’s been, I’ll take Berrios
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| 4:02 |
: So, who is the closer in Washington and how confident do you feel about your pick?
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| 4:03 |
: Ryan Madson and 75%? Doolittle is the better reliever, but being a southpaw with shoulder issues makes it easier to leave him in a flexible role
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| 4:03 |
: Best buy low SPs out there today?
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| 4:03 |
: Great question… I’ll be back
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| 4:04 |
: I’m defining buy low as somebody with bad stats who could improve quite a bit
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| 4:04 |
: So I’m leaving out guys like Trevor Cahill on purpose
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| 4:05 |
: There’s always a chance Trevor Bauer solves for X, although I hate betting on him. I think Marco Estrada gets his act together. Davies and Roark have some upside
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| 4:05 |
: Samardzija is a weird one, bad ERA, great FIP
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| 4:05 |
: Tyler Chatwood any time he’s on the road
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| 4:06 |
: Probably too late to grab Porcello and Pom
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| 4:06 |
: Hendricks
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| 4:06 |
: Nola
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| 4:06 |
: Probably also missed Quintana. I’ll stop there for now
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| 4:06 |
: Giving Cargo one last chance this week before cutting him. If he can’t do anything this week in Coors it’s time right ??
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| 4:07 |
: eh, I’m riding that train until I crash into a mountain
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| 4:07 |
: Just like JUpton last year
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| 4:07 |
: What kind of value does De Leon have in a dynasty league?
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| 4:08 |
: I can’t really help you with that. Not only does “dynasty” encompass a stupidly wide range of formats, but opinions of De Leon range from future ace to garbage
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| 4:08 |
: how do you try to compute the ‘points to gain/lose’ in your leagues to help target the right players? I’m struggling to pick the right threshold based on the amount of time left in the season. I need an equation based on league settings/time of the season for what is a hole that can be climbed out of, and what is a pit of despair.
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| 4:09 |
: Honestly, I mental math it. I learned a long time ago that you can’t really plan fantasy production. Just manage your team as best as you can, pay attention to the categories, and cross your fingers
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| 4:09 |
: Thoughts on Cespedes ROS? Can land him for Rich Hill & Britton in a shallowIsh 12 teamer
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| 4:09 |
: High risk, massive reward
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| 4:09 |
: Same can be said of the other two
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| 4:10 |
: Do you believe in Buxton as a hitter? I’m holding and holding in a 12-team dynasty, but I’m in contention, and if I need to make a move, can I risk letting him go? The CF in my lineup is waiver fodder.
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| 4:10 |
: I’ve been off the Buxton bandwagon for awhile. You should ask somebody who believes in him
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| 4:10 |
: what your take on Zack Granite, worth spot in 12 team OBP, worth a look or just wait for Leury Garcia to come back
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| 4:10 |
: Leury or somebody else will be better this year
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| 4:10 |
: Granite may be a tad overmatched – making a lot of soft contact
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| 4:11 |
: The speed isn’t as elite as the past SB numbers suggest either
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| 4:11 |
: Gausman for Schwarber – who says no?
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| 4:11 |
: Schwarber should
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| 4:11 |
: Look, I know his season numbers are pretty ugly, but he still ought to be treated as a top 50 or so hitter RoS
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| 4:12 |
: And that’s ignoring his C eligibility in some leagues
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| 4:12 |
: Alonso or Bour ROS and in the future?
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| 4:12 |
: Alonso and Alonso. Though Bour is fine too.
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| 4:12 |
: Also, the new site is pretty damn buggy. Even on this page, the ads are hogging memory and causing massive slowness.
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| 4:13 |
: Consider supporting us by becoming a member. No ads!
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| 4:13 |
: Where do you see Salazar settling in when he comes back? He’s sitting on the wire and I’m staring at him….
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| 4:13 |
: So for three of the last four seasons, Salazar was really bad early before becoming one of the best starters down the stretch
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| 4:14 |
: this year may be a little different in that he missed his tune up time
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| 4:14 |
: but that potential is there
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| 4:14 |
: Thanks for the chat! Did I mess up? In two trades in a 13 teamer, 3 year keeper league, I traded Bellinger ($1), Kyle Seager ($26) and Gallo ($1) and got back Machado (not keepable), Benintendi ($1) and Josh Bell ($1).
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| 4:14 |
: While I prefer the pre-trade trio, I don’t think you’ve ruined yourself
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| 4:14 |
: Would you take Barnes over Castillo?
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| 4:15 |
: That’s right around the break even point. Do note, I was commenting on what Barnes has already done, not what he’s likely to do RoS
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| 4:15 |
: Potential suitors for Brad Hand?
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| 4:15 |
: 29 teams
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| 4:16 |
: Belt to NYY an under-the-radar possibility? Have to think that a lot of his deep flyouts in AT&T would be HR in Yankee Stadium.
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| 4:16 |
: I would love that. I think they’ll prefer the rental route with Alonso
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| 4:16 |
: Puig for Porcello in 13 team league. Fair offer?
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| 4:16 |
: Yes
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| 4:16 |
: This site told me Brad Johnson is chatting right now, but who’s Brad Johnson
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| 4:16 |
: ?
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| 4:17 |
: I have over 1,000 articles on FanGraphs with another 500 or so on The Hardball Times before they switched formats
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| 4:18 |
: So to answer your question, I’m the sixth most prolific author on this webbing site
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| 4:18 |
: What are your thought regarding Wacha on the Road here vs a streaky Mets lineup Brad?
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| 4:18 |
: In short, very risky but doable
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| 4:19 |
: debating using him in DFS tonight
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| 4:19 |
: What do you think is the best method to approach scarcity – target scarce resources to corner the market, or avoid over paying with expectations of being in line with everyone else?
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| 4:19 |
: You gotta know your leaguemates. Often, cornering the market just lets everybody else get away with underperforming at the position/category
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| 4:20 |
: Not too many people will step away from their intrinsic values (however they define them) just because an asset is scarce
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| 4:20 |
: Which side do you like more in a dynasty trade: Mazara and Devers or Eloy and Gleyber?
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| 4:20 |
: Mazara and Devers
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| 4:20 |
: Drop oh for rosenthal, kahnle, or Doolittle?
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| 4:20 |
: Well…
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| 4:20 |
: you could
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| 4:20 |
: I consider them to all be the same asset class
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| 4:20 |
: Re: Alonso, aren’t you concerned he’s been ice cold for over a month now (sub .700 OPS), and he has a much longer track record of being bad than good?
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| 4:21 |
: No. My concern is for his health, not the slump
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| 4:21 |
: He may not be a guy who can give you 650 good PA
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| 4:21 |
: may be more of a 450 PA guy
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| 4:21 |
: Are you a believer on Garza & his breaking stuff for continued success in NL only?
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| 4:21 |
: Yea, he’s usable in that format
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| 4:21 |
: not in mixed though
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| 4:21 |
: Would trading Yonder Alonso for Stro or Gerrit Cole be a fair swap? Yonder’s seemingly imminent trade to the Yankees and that short right field porch have me double guessing myself
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| 4:22 |
: Stroman. I’m baffled about Cole atm
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| 4:22 |
: Thoughts on Polonco? Drop Kemp Myers Conforto or Belilinger for him?
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| 4:22 |
: Do not drop Bellinger for anybody
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| 4:22 |
: unless you actually have some dude named Belilinger on your roster
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| 4:22 |
: then yes, cut that fool
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| 4:22 |
: Keep those other guys over Polanco
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| 4:22 |
: Ken Giles or Kyle Schwarber dynasty league
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| 4:22 |
: Schwarber, easy peasy
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| 4:23 |
: Kyle Schwarber or Ken Giles dynasty?
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| 4:23 |
: That was Andrew apparently. Or else “guest’s” trade partner also wants to know
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| 4:23 |
: dinelson lamet at coors tonight what do you think is the outcome
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| 4:23 |
: DOOM
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| 4:23 |
: 2 HR, 6 K, 5 IP
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| 4:24 |
: Carlos Correa….NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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| 4:24 |
: Oh, I missed this
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| 4:24 |
: He’s confirmed out 6 to 8 weeks
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| 4:24 |
: How high are you on Luis Castillo? would you rather have him than J. Montgomery?
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| 4:24 |
: Thoughts on Luis Castillo?
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| 4:25 |
: Two people asking about a guy about whom I have almost no opinion
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| 4:25 |
: allow me a moment to go form one
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| 4:26 |
: I’m still on the Monty (both of ’em) bandwagon
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| 4:26 |
: Castillo is worth stashing if only because he throws 98 with a solid changeup
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| 4:26 |
: I don’t think the profile is going to work in 2017 at GABP
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| 4:26 |
: Just picked up Joc for $1. Thinking about trying to trade for a rental Cespedes, but hesitant on what to give up. Think it’s worth the gamble, or do you think I already have Cespedes’ risk/reward for cheaper in Pederson?
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| 4:26 |
: Get Cespedes
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| 4:27 |
: Is Brent Suter this good?
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| 4:27 |
: You mean is he league average starter? No, probably not.
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| 4:27 |
: He’s induced a lot of soft contact, but I’m not sure it’s a repeatable skill
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| 4:27 |
: if it is, then he’s a MLB pitcher
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| 4:27 |
: if not, then he isn’t
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| 4:28 |
: Was Eric not doing his chat today?
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| 4:28 |
: I know nothing of the chatting habits of others. I chat every Tuesday unless I have a conflict. Which has been regrettably often this season
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| 4:28 |
: Dickey or Sabathia in points ROS? On a related note, kill me.
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| 4:28 |
: oh god. Dickey’s the hot hand
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| 4:28 |
: Gave up Alonso for Nova since I needed a somewhat decent arm to replace Pineda. Think I got enough?
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| 4:29 |
: It’s not ideal, but sometimes it’s better to pull the trigger quickly than to squeeze out all the pennies
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| 4:29 |
: Move Belt/Andrew Miller for Quintana in dynasty points? Need an SP but not sure if it matches value wise.
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| 4:29 |
: I like that
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| 4:29 |
: Belt is a good 1B, but his production tends to be easy to replace
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| 4:30 |
: That said, I don’t think it’s a must-trade if you’re enjoying Miller’s dominance
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| 4:30 |
: reliever do tend to asplode and he’s had some elbow issues
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| 4:30 |
: then again, SP also asplode
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| 4:30 |
: helpful advice, eh?
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| 4:30 |
: Tell us something only the real Brad Johnson would know
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| 4:31 |
: Everybody thinks it’s clever to make a joke about the football player. It’s not.
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| 4:31 |
: MadBum in re-draft: buy/sell/hold?
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| 4:31 |
: buy always
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| 4:31 |
: favorite buy low hitter rest of season?
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| 4:31 |
: Same definition as before – somebody bad who should be better…
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| 4:33 |
: Cargo, Peraza (if you need SB), Villar (same), Nunez (same), Doobie Herrera, Story, DJLM, Schwarber, K Seager. Of those, my favorites are Seager, Schwarber, and Nunez
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| 4:33 |
: McCullers and Jay Bruce for Murphy in OBP/QS League?
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| 4:33 |
: Sure.
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| 4:33 |
: Should I start to worry about McCullers?
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| 4:33 |
: You should always worry about McCullers. Has trouble staying healthy and/or reaching the sixth inning
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| 4:33 |
: is the Padres rotation secretly good?
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| 4:34 |
: It’s not the disaster we all predicted. Except for Weaver. That was worse than I expected. And I expected a whole heap of bad
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| 4:35 |
: Over the last three years, my 12-team roto has had 4 team-seasons over 4.00 ERA. So far this year, that’s the median. Why is pitching so bad?
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| 4:35 |
: Everybody is hurt or susceptible to the swing changes everybody has made
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| 4:35 |
: it’ll take a couple years to start producing pitchers who work effectively near the top of the zone. Meanwhile, a few Dan Strailys will emerge out of nowhere
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| 4:36 |
: Follow-up: How “real” is Bellinger? ROS guess? Production comp? Guess at next year’s draft slot?
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| 4:36 |
: I think the power is the one thing we’ll see revert to a 25 HR pace
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| 4:36 |
: otherwise, more or less real, pending any holes
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| 4:36 |
: never know when a fatal flaw will be found. He doesn’t seem to have one though
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| 4:37 |
: think Ryan howard and Josh Hamilton as examples. I swear they both closed their eyes on sliders
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| 4:37 |
: 12-team dynasty, I offered $4 T Turner, $20 McCullers, $4 Altherr, 1.1 (minors draft), 1.3 for $18 Sale, Rental Stanton, 2.11, 3.11 (his last two picks). All players go up $2 next year, except Sale doubles. Fair? He refused
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| 4:38 |
: I can’t really offer an opinion on a trade this complicated
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| 4:38 |
: Personally, I’d be inclined to break this into parts. Trade for Sale then trade for Stanton
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| 4:39 |
: figure out which if any players you both value very differently
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| 4:39 |
: for example, I made a trade yesterday that started with an offer of C Davis and Bauer for my Paxton and Maurer
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| 4:40 |
: I assumed he valued Maurer as less than Bauer, but it was really Paxton and Davis where we diverged
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| 4:40 |
: He thought Paxton didn’t cover Davis, I thought Paxton was at least 1.5X Davis
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| 4:40 |
: 20 team, 45 player roster dynasty btw
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| 4:41 |
: we later worked out Maurer and Ryu for Fowler and Chatwood
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| 4:41 |
: Altuve Ozuna Scherzer or Trout Moncada Syndergard dynasty?
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| 4:41 |
: Trout
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| 4:41 |
: always Trout
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| 4:41 |
: Seriously, that trio for Trout alone is iffy
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| 4:42 |
: maybe if it was as soon as he hit the disabled list
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| 4:42 |
: What’s Baez’s future outlook? Does he become what everyone thought he would? A 30/20 guy?
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| 4:42 |
: I’m sorry if somebody sold you Baez as a 30/20 guy
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| 4:42 |
: that was a 0.0005% chance outcome
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| 4:42 |
: i.e. possible but stupidly unlikely
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| 4:43 |
: we fixate way too much on upside when we think about prospects
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| 4:43 |
: as an industry
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| 4:43 |
: Baez is probably who is, with some sort of random walk going forward
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| 4:43 |
: Can I drop Brad Brach?
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| 4:43 |
: No
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| 4:43 |
: Keep him for at least 2 weeks after Britton takes the job back
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| 4:44 |
: Thoughts on Villar do you expect a good 2nd half?
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| 4:44 |
: For fantasy purposes, yes.
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| 4:44 |
: In a real sense, call it decent
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| 4:44 |
: In contention in a dynasty league and own schwarber. Should I trade him for a win-now piece or will I regret it later on?
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| 4:44 |
: Both?
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| 4:44 |
: Brantley done thanks to that shoulder? No homers since April
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| 4:45 |
: I really don’t know. I’ve been riding him anyway due to some solid peripherals
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| 4:45 |
: He did get older between his breakout and his return
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| 4:45 |
: he may just have missed most of his 15 HR/season window
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| 4:45 |
: Salazarwas actually much better pre-ASB than post-ASB last season.
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| 4:46 |
: Right, I said 3 of 4
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| 4:46 |
: WHERE CAN i FIND BALL PARK INFORMATION ON YOUR SITE?
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| 4:46 |
: google fangraphs guts!
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| 4:46 |
: Who closes for the Mets if I get traded?
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| 4:46 |
: Familia has begun a throwing program
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| 4:46 |
: Rox or dbacks buying a shortstop? If so, who to grab – Cozart, Galvis, Other?
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| 4:46 |
: Cozart should be owned anyway
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| 4:46 |
: which side: McCullers, Conforto, Carlos Rodon for Mookie and David Robertson? 10 tm roto keeper
|
| 4:46 |
: MOOOKIE
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| 4:47 |
: save spec’ing – who do you like? bearclaw, phelps, hand, greene?
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| 4:47 |
: Well, I like ’em all. I’ll say this about Hand though – his best path to saves was Washington
|
| 4:47 |
: which is no longer true
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| 4:47 |
: Add Tommy Hunter to your list. Colome is a couple bad days from losing his job
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| 4:48 |
: I guess “good buy low candidate” is a relatively subjective definition, but do you really think CarGo can turn it around? Better target – him or Cespedes as a rental?
|
| 4:48 |
: Yes and Cespedes
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| 4:48 |
: Cargo has had multiple seasons where he’s spent 60 days as one of the worst hitters and another 60 as one of the best
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| 4:48 |
: I think the juiced balls might be affecting pitching statistics as well
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| 4:49 |
: Balls were the same last year too
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| 4:49 |
: I mean yes, you’re right if the balls are actually juiced, but indirectly
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| 4:49 |
: it’s encouraged hitters to adopt the swing changes of Donaldson, JDM, Murphy, etc. etc.
|
| 4:49 |
: whichever poster child you prefer
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| 4:50 |
: which means everybody is mashing everything low in the strike zone
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| 4:50 |
: because those mechanics are specifically geared to crushing low pitches and breaking balls
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| 4:50 |
: I just completed my first trade ever in Fantasy. I traded Bud Norris (I never win saves and I’m afraid he’ll get traded) for Justin Verlander. How did I do? Will Verlander get better?
|
| 4:50 |
: Congrats on the swap!
|
| 4:51 |
: Verlander was about this bad in 2015 before rebounding for the stretch run
|
| 4:51 |
: A change of scenery could help
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| 4:51 |
: It was a worthy gamble, Norris is just a volume saves guy at best
|
| 4:52 |
: Can get Daniel Murphy to put me over the top and win the league, but I would lose Rosario and Dozier in a keeper forever. I feel like it’s too steep. Thoughts?
|
| 4:52 |
: Oh, speaking of buy lows
|
| 4:52 |
: Dozier hit 23 HR in August and Sept last year
|
| 4:52 |
: so… go buy low
|
| 4:52 |
: Aside from yesterday, Zimmerman has been bad over the last month. Who do you like more moving forward, him or Moose?
|
| 4:52 |
: push
|
| 4:53 |
: Here on out: Chris Davis or Mark Reynolds?
|
| 4:53 |
: Davis
|
| 4:53 |
: Does Sonny Gray put up better/worse/about the same numbers if he gets moved? ERA and FIP are consistent atm, park is good, defense sucks
|
| 4:53 |
: Well, it’s going to be context dependent. I suspect better though because you’ll get some extra wins
|
| 4:53 |
: With Starling Marte back I have too many OFs. Help me drop 1-2 (I’m really afraid to drop any of these guys): Matt Adams, Kendrys Morales, Tommy Pham, Brandon Belt.
|
| 4:53 |
: Not Belt
|
| 4:54 |
: the other three are droppable
|
| 4:54 |
: I’d do Adams personally
|
| 4:54 |
: I am sure someone may want to quantify this, but teams carrying more pitchers and fewer starters on pace for 200 innings means the worst MLB pitchers are (by rank) worse, and the bottom tier of them are pitching more often
|
| 4:54 |
: Any interest in Colin Moran? Was once 6th overall pick…
|
| 4:54 |
: Mark Appel was a #1 pick
|
| 4:54 |
: No, not interested in Moran
|
| 4:55 |
: Traded Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Turner and Addison Reed for Corey Seager, Josh Donaldson and Kenta Maeda. Shallow league so I’ll cut Maeda; thinking Reed is dealt to a non-closer situation. You like the deal?
|
| 4:55 |
: Yea, good sell high, buy low on Donaldson
|
| 4:55 |
: now you just need it to play out as scripted
|
| 4:55 |
: Have an offer getting AJ Pollock for my Jon Lester. Should I take it?
|
| 4:55 |
: Who do you like better rest of season? Stroman or Duffy?
|
| 4:56 |
: Gimme Stroman and Pollock. However, before you trade Lester, you need to be sure you can afford the loss of pitching stats. Moving from Lester to replacement level will really hurt. Whereas Pollock to say Pham isn’t all that painful
|
| 4:57 |
: ERod on my DL in 12 team saves league. drop any of jordan montgomery, straily, yonder alsonso, betances, ryan madsen, brian mccann (grandal is my other C) to activate him, or keep him stashed for now?
|
| 4:57 |
: Leave him stashed. Somebody else will probably hit the DL before you need to make a move
|
| 4:57 |
: Straily or Monty are probably the cut unless McCann is just chilling on your bench
|
| 4:58 |
: I’ve been leaving guys on my DL all season. Always resolves within a couple days
|
| 4:58 |
: Was stuck with ERod and Morton in a couple leagues and had Chiz and Altherr clear out
|
| 4:58 |
: I’ve got first place in a 12-team redraft by a verrrry narrow lead and just lost Correa with no backup shortstops. Waiver options are DeJong, Hernan Perez, Tim Anderson. Gotta go trade hunting, yes?
|
| 4:58 |
: Yea, but you can also try to stream instead
|
| 4:59 |
: in other words, don’t force the issue
|
| 4:59 |
: I think you can cobble together decent stats from the wire with those and similar guys (i.e. Arcia and Galvis)
|
| 4:59 |
: Cesar Hernandez or Lowrie ROS?
|
| 5:00 |
: Lowrie
|
| 5:00 |
: Any potential call ups that you see making an immediate impact? Maybe ones that wouldnt be owned in a dynasty league. Just lost correa.
|
| 5:00 |
: Oi, that’s a tough request
|
| 5:00 |
: Luke Voit is up now and pretty good looking
|
| 5:00 |
: Rosario is supposedly coming soon
|
| 5:00 |
: but he’s probably owned
|
| 5:00 |
: I just bought low on Rodon in a dynasty-esque league. I’m not all that concerned about this season, but do you think he ever lives up to the hype and can be a legit SP2 type?
|
| 5:01 |
: 15-30% chance
|
| 5:01 |
: You like Hunter over Foxy Boxy for TB save spec?
|
| 5:01 |
: Yes
|
| 5:01 |
: Better C rest of season: Russell Martin or Yasmani?
|
| 5:01 |
: Can you elaborate on your Jose Peraza support? He has a 1% BB rate, which may be some kind of record, and we know you can’t steal first…
|
| 5:01 |
: Grandal unless he’s hurt
|
| 5:02 |
: As for Peraza, that low walk rate is kind of part of why I see upside
|
| 5:03 |
: Cesar Hernandez was in a similar boat last year (4%ish through 3 months) before he suddenly became very selective. Had a .400ish OBP in the second half. Not saying Peraza will do that, but it’s in the realm of possibility
|
| 5:03 |
: McCullers for Paxton straight up?
|
| 5:03 |
: Smells reasonable
|
| 5:03 |
: CHALLENGE TRADE
|
| 5:03 |
: Pham for Villar…who wins?
|
| 5:03 |
: Villar
|
| 5:03 |
: I see more downside for Pham than most of my colleagues
|
| 5:04 |
: I think he’s extremely high volatility
|
| 5:04 |
: is chapman a top 5 closer next year?
|
| 5:04 |
: Matt Chapman? I doubt it
|
| 5:04 |
: Aroldis tho? Of course
|
| 5:04 |
: Do you play Ottoneu FG pts league(s)? How difficult is it to make up a 10,000 pt lead in the standings? First place team is stacked. Ugh.
|
| 5:05 |
: Did you mean to say 1,000? I hope you meant to say 1,000.
|
| 5:05 |
: 1,000 is challenging but doable, especially if your opponent has used a bunch of extra innings or you’ve shorted your innings
|
| 5:06 |
: i need to free up a roster spot but have kahlne stashed, i dont know how much longer i can hold on for. is it worth it?
|
| 5:06 |
: I mean, you always knew you probably had to wait until July 31 for Kahnle
|
| 5:06 |
: I think it’s worth it if you need the save
|
| 5:06 |
: Since my teammate Pineda went under the knife do you think the Yankees will let me pitch more innings or do you think Inget shut down at some point?
|
| 5:07 |
: The Yankees are going to compete. They can buy their way out of blowing up your arm
|
| 5:07 |
: meanwhile, there’s still literally no evidence that managing innings helps preserve a pitcher’s arm
|
| 5:08 |
: besides a few common sense measures like not asking pitchers to go beyond what they’re conditioned to do, I don’t see much value to managing innings
|
| 5:08 |
: How much does JD Martinez’s value increased if he’s traded to COL or AX as rumored?
|
| 5:08 |
: Well, not as much as you might think
|
| 5:08 |
: The middle of the Detroit lineup is not a bad place to hit
|
| 5:09 |
: nor has he lost out on many HR
|
| 5:09 |
: Best SS ROS: Russell, Story, or Villar
|
| 5:09 |
: By fantasy stats, probably Villar
|
| 5:09 |
: those steals are deceptively valuable, especially with 3 other categories of help
|
| 5:09 |
: With Correas injury will I get any reps at SS or is Martin going to snake them all from me?
|
| 5:09 |
: I hope to see Bregman there
|
| 5:09 |
: But they may want to avoid the future controversy
|
| 5:10 |
: then again, gauging Bregman’s proficiency would be useful if Correa comes back looking clumsy
|
| 5:10 |
: Oops, I meant 1,000
|
| 5:10 |
: This was that ottoneu pts question. Glad it’s only 1,000. you have an uphill battle, but you can grind your way to victory
|
| 5:11 |
: I’ve coughed up a 600 pt lead in FG Staff 2 over the last month
|
| 5:11 |
: Is A Wood an Ace?
|
| 5:11 |
: Yes
|
| 5:11 |
: Is he durable? Probably not
|
| 5:11 |
: How do you feel about money being involved in trades? Our league just had a spirited discussion when it was used to get a trade done.
|
| 5:11 |
: You mean like USD?
|
| 5:12 |
: That should either be a specific feature of your league or it’s a form of collusion
|
| 5:12 |
: Like literally, that’s exactly one type of collusion – offering non-fantasy goods/services for fantasy value
|
| 5:13 |
: i wish it was 10,000. i really do
|
| 5:13 |
: I suspect this is the point leader of that league 🙂
|
| 5:13 |
: What do you think is wrong with McCullers, just lingering back issues? Do you trust him to bounce back?
|
| 5:13 |
: Maybe and maybe
|
| 5:13 |
: I mean, if he’s healthy, he’ll be good
|
| 5:13 |
: is he healthy? I don’t know. How could I?
|
| 5:14 |
: You buying a Miguel Cabrera 2nd half resurgence? Historically he’s been better in the 2H, he’s been hitting the ball hard and he had the ASB to get over early season nagging injuries…Or he’s done. Which is it?
|
| 5:14 |
: Miggy is the next David Ortiz. I’ll never give up.
|
| 5:14 |
: Expectations for Luis Castillo being a fantasy asset in the 2nd half?
|
| 5:14 |
: A thousand people have asked about Luis Castillo even though I already commented. In summary, I think he’s a worthwhile stash while we gather more info
|
| 5:15 |
: I don’t think he’ll succeed at GABP in 2017, but I can’t rule it out either
|
| 5:15 |
: and there is bigger future potential
|
| 5:15 |
: may be an elite reliever
|
| 5:15 |
: I am short innings in trying to race down a guy in 1st place who is long in innings. Trade inquiries not going so well. My 1-6 are Stras, Greinke, Price, Shark, Tanaka & Gio. Nova isn’t giving me much confidence at #7. Should I add Perdomo, Waino, JC Ramirez or *gulp* Dickey, as another spot starter?
|
| 5:15 |
: Try to stream
|
| 5:15 |
: it’s been an awful season for streaming – I know because I write a column about it
|
| 5:16 |
: However, it’s still better to play matchups than bet on any on of those guys
|
| 5:16 |
: Does Correa’s injury hurt fantasy values for non-star Astros like Josh Reddick? Seems like a lot of his value is driven by scoring a zillion runs, which he’ll do less of without CC.
|
| 5:16 |
: Well, sure, it’ll hurt some, but not that much
|
| 5:17 |
: apologize if i already sent this question but should i deal arrieta for cutch…..to upgrade from peralta?
|
| 5:17 |
: I’d probably hang onto the pitching. So hard to find it
|
| 5:17 |
: Sorry, got here late.
|
| 5:17 |
: No worries, yours was just the latest of a couple dozen examples (no hyperbole)
|
| 5:17 |
: Dee Gordon or AJ Pollock?
|
| 5:17 |
: Pollock unless you literally only need a chance at 30 SB RoS
|
| 5:17 |
: Should I drop Vargas or Marco Estrada for Zack Godley?
|
| 5:18 |
: Um, yes. Do that 2 months ago if you can
|
| 5:18 |
: Starlin or Chris Davis?
|
| 5:18 |
: I’ll bet on Davis producing more runs and HR
|
| 5:19 |
: 12team, 5×5 H2H. I’m middle of the pack w/ strong pitching, but not at the level of #1-3. Worth seeing if I can flip Scherzer for Harper & Greinke for say like a Pollock-type bat? Aim here would be to sweep at the plate and hope for a W in Saves / ERA / WHIP…
|
| 5:19 |
: I’ve always found it much easier to control the pitching stats and luck into hitting categories
|
| 5:19 |
: I lost Trea Turner as my SS and am trying to hold on to first place. I’ve been cycling guys in and out. Currently have Asdrubel Cabrera but Reyes, Escobar, and Galvis are available. Who would you take a shot on?
|
| 5:20 |
: Just keep cycling based on matchups. Keep checking Coors Field, looking into swapping a tidbit for Arcia, etc.
|
| 5:20 |
: You believe in Schoop for the 2nd half? He’s basically been Robinson Cano for the 1st half.
|
| 5:20 |
: He’s improved. Much more patient this year
|
| 5:20 |
: Not sure he’ll remain Cano, but he’s a fantasy playa
|
| 5:21 |
: Think Zach Granite will have an fantasy impact this year?
|
| 5:21 |
: No, not really
|
| 5:21 |
: he could, just isn’t very likely
|
| 5:21 |
: he’ll probably get demoted if he doesn’t have a three hit game soon
|
| 5:21 |
: Better 2018 asset: A. Bradley or A. Vizcaino?
|
| 5:21 |
: Bradley
|
| 5:21 |
: Do you see Derek Fisher coming up soon?
|
| 5:21 |
: The outfield is still pretty crowded
|
| 5:21 |
: so not really
|
| 5:22 |
: I’ve reached the last question. This never happens. (I did skip a couple hundred early on)
|
| 5:22 |
: Wrapping up…
|
| 5:22 |
: What’s got into Cahill? He looks great. Is it all use of curve? How did command improve in ’17?
|
| 5:23 |
: I can tell you the command is much better. No idea why/how
|
| 5:23 |
: No need to answer if you’ve already addressed this: What’s your take on Bruce Maxwell, given the dearth of good catchers?
|
| 5:23 |
: Playable!
|
| 5:23 |
: He’s boring/fine
|
| 5:23 |
: gg folks
|
| 5:23 |
: What kind of production should we expect out of Chris Taylor ROS?
|
| 5:24 |
: .250/.320/.400 some HR and SB
|
| 5:24 |
: Gallo demoted soon?
|
| 5:24 |
: ya
|
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