Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 7/30/2019
We chatted!
4:00 |
: We’ll get started in a few moments.
|
4:02 |
: Is Sergio Romo safe to drop, i.e. have the Twins officially said they’re sticking with Rogers at closer?
|
4:02 |
: I’ve seen nothing to that effect. I always would be outright stunned if they didn’t add a closer. I’d hang onto Romo just a little longer to play it safe.
|
4:04 |
: Though if you wanted to speculate on someone like Bummer, you could. Losing Romo the Closer isn’t a big deal even if he retains the job.
|
4:04 |
: This is the end of any Ty Buttrey spec, right? We can all stop stashing him now?
|
4:04 |
: You’re referring to his recent slump, right?
|
4:05 |
: I think he could still climb back into the picture towards the end of the season, but I see no reason to keep squeezing the stone if you have alternatives
|
4:05 |
: Which MLB position player would you trade 1×1 to get Jo Adell on a fair trade?
|
4:05 |
: Oh that’s hard. I’m going to assume current contracts and Angels needs
|
4:06 |
: I think it would have to be someone like Ketel Marte or Jorge Polanco. Controllable, cheap, but not quite a star
|
4:06 |
: Though you could argue that last point with Marte
|
4:07 |
: I’m kind of looking ahead to when the ball is less juicy and those HR turn back into 2Bs
|
4:07 |
: im out of contention. 12teams 10 keepers. would you trade pete alonso and giolito/soroka for freeman?
|
4:07 |
: Nope. Alonso is probably a better asset.
|
4:07 |
: If you could control the Royals until the deadline, who would you be trying to trade?
|
4:07 |
: This is a good one…
|
4:08 |
: Well, I’d be trying to trade Merrifield for one, but I get the sense there isn’t much of a market for him.
|
4:08 |
: Hamilton is an obvious swap for a B- pitching spec
|
4:08 |
: Jorge Soler should go while he’s hitting
|
4:09 |
: Basically, everybody except Mondesi, Lopez, and maybe Dozier
|
4:09 |
: I would ask around on Dozier though. He’s not exactly young.
|
4:09 |
: The Gurriel Bros, replacement level bats or useful starters in 12 team for rest of the year?
|
4:09 |
: They’re above rep level
|
4:10 |
: They’ve carried at times this year, but I would expect merely decent production
|
4:10 |
: Can Will Smith (C) be counted on for ROS? I’m thinking about trading Realmuto (11th round value in a keeper league) to fill in other holes for my championship run?
|
4:10 |
: No, but that doesn’t mean you can’t gamble on moving Realmuto
|
4:10 |
: C is surprisingly deep this year. If Smith dries up, you might be able to get Tom Murphy. Sean Murphy is also due for a call later.
|
4:11 |
: Are you holding Senzel in a shallow H2H OPS league? His counting stats haven’t been all that great
|
4:11 |
: If it’s redraft, you don’t have to if you see a shiny alternative
|
4:11 |
: But definitely in any scenario where he’d be kept.
|
4:11 |
: ottoneu H2H w/ FG scoring…Scherzer ($65) and $29 loan for Severino ($33) and Nate Pearson ($3). Which side do you prefer?
|
4:11 |
: Scherzer
|
4:12 |
: What kind of return can I get if I package Colome with a Bummer or Fry?
|
4:12 |
: This level of reliever typically doesn’t merit a large return. Probably a B spec of some kind
|
4:13 |
: I’ll use Adam Haseley as an example
|
4:13 |
: Not that the Phillies can afford to trade an OFer.
|
4:13 |
: 10 Team Standard Roto Dynasty. Kirilloff/Manning/Julio Rodriguez too much for Story or Jose Ramirez? Wanting to compete but still want to hold top prospects if possible.
|
4:13 |
: No. That format is so shallow. You can rebuild that farm fast.
|
4:14 |
: Any kind of 8-12 team dynasty, I would constantly pump prospects for MLBers
|
4:14 |
: No sense developing your own talent unless nobody will pay for it.
|
4:14 |
: Some guys slip through the cracks like that.
|
4:15 |
: For example, I’ve had a $5 Hiura in Ottoneu FGpts who I’ve been trying to sell. Today I was FINALLY offered something reasonable for a win-now play (pricey Sale+Kershaw). But I had just decided that Hiura is no longer tradeable.
|
4:16 |
12-tm, dynasty, H2H most categories. |
4:16 |
: Well that’s no fun!
|
4:16 |
: My recent comments apply. Turn him (and others) into the best guy you can get.
|
4:16 |
: Preferably in place of a weak starter
|
4:17 |
: Hamilton can’t keep a job on the Royals. I would think C (not C+) prospect at best.
|
4:17 |
: That’s fair enough. Playoff teams keep sending C specs for Gore
|
4:17 |
: I figured Hamilton merited a little more
|
4:17 |
: But I could be wrong
|
4:17 |
: How much higher would you value zack wheeler Or Robbie Ray if they end up going to the Astros?
|
4:17 |
: 15%?
|
4:18 |
: Have a surplus of pitching, what offensive player would you be targeting for Kluber? 6×6 ops and qs
|
4:18 |
: Could take a stab at a Matt Chapman or DJ LeMahieu (assuming his groin is fine)
|
4:18 |
: 1 IL spot and a Mondesi and a Snell… for fantasy playoff purposes, all things equal, who are you holding?
|
4:19 |
: Mondesi wins SB by himself
|
4:19 |
: Trying to bolster my pitching for a run at the chip. 10 team mixed keeper. last place has greinke and nola, i’m in first place and would give up hendricks, stroman and picks. the question is, what picks should they be for an initial offer?
|
4:19 |
: Honestly, I think you need to offer your 1st to get that deal anywhere off the ground.
|
4:20 |
: It’s a weak start
|
4:20 |
: But # of keeps is relevant.
|
4:21 |
: If it’s like keep 3 where first round picks are guys like Anthony Rendon, you could probably get away with a lesser pick offer
|
4:21 |
: I have an offer on the table of Keston Hiura for my Jo Adell. I am contending this year (dynasty league), how close is this?
|
4:21 |
: Insta-accept imo
|
4:21 |
: You’re getting present value and a similar quality prospect
|
4:21 |
: When Gary Sanches comes back, do we play him or Will Smith?
|
4:22 |
: For now, I’ll say Sanchez. We have plenty of time to reevaluate Smith in the interim. And Sanchez might take longer than expected since they have no reason to rush him
|
4:22 |
: and no DH slot to ease him back
|
4:22 |
A: Realmuto, Thor, J. Baez B: Betts, Berrios Who you got? And is it close? |
4:23 |
: 1. Yes, that’s close enough for me
|
4:23 |
: 2. I’d take the Betts side because I kinda hate Baez’s batting profile
|
4:23 |
: Sure, it’s working, but we don’t have a lot of evidence suggesting it’ll age well
|
4:23 |
: As soon as he loses some twitch, he’s going to have to reinvent himself. Or turn Rougie Odor on us
|
4:24 |
: Bouncing between 4th and 5th, payout ends at 4th with getting money back and change. ~20 pts out of 2nd, do you make a big push for more money or do you sell out for next year?
|
4:24 |
: I tend to walk the line in these scenarios. My mantra is “retool, not rebuild”
|
4:25 |
: So if I have old guys/non-keepers with a lot of present value, I’ll shift them to future value. But I’ll also try to win.
|
4:25 |
: I know it would depend on specifics, but *generally* which would you prefer: a mediocre pitcher against a bad offensive team or a good (not great/ace) pitcher against a good offensive team?
|
4:25 |
: I’ll take good more often than not
|
4:25 |
: Are you a Josh Van Meter believer?
|
4:25 |
: Yes, early adopter!
|
4:26 |
: Do you have any guys who have been hot over the past month that you are trying to trade before they return to normal?
|
4:26 |
: Yes, but I can’t comment specifically. I’m trying to trade them!
|
4:26 |
: $4 Archer cheap enough to take a chance on?
|
4:26 |
: Sure?
|
4:26 |
: Hiura or Senzel ROS?
|
4:26 |
: EZ Hiura
|
4:27 |
: Time to cut bait w Pence in 12 tm? Hasn’t been the same since coming back
|
4:27 |
: Can do
|
4:27 |
: Bo Bichette worth a spot in 12-team redraft?
|
4:27 |
: I think so. He’s one of those guys you’re not guaranteed to find a spot for, but somebody in your league should need him
|
4:27 |
: If you’re the Astros, who are you trying to add?
|
4:28 |
: I think I put up Kyle Tucker for Thor AND Wheeler then push Miley to fifth in the rotation.
|
4:29 |
: Clearly, Tucker is worth more than a good-not-great pitcher like Thor to MLB teams
|
4:29 |
: And the Astros really honestly don’t need another OFer. They can find a spot for him, but they can also just use Myles Straw.
|
4:30 |
: Which is a completely different profile and not as hyped
|
4:30 |
: But he’s a monster.
|
4:30 |
: Mondesi didn’t run his first time up and was sent down. He came up again and flashed what has become one of the best SB games in the league. Do we see something similar for Nicky Lopez given his track record?
|
4:30 |
: I’m quite surprised by the lack of SBs
|
4:30 |
: I thought we’d get some chunks of production like with Oscar Mercado
|
4:31 |
: So sure, I’m hopeful of a rebound
|
4:31 |
: Keep Franco for $5 in a keep 8 league? Price goes up by $5 for 3 years, by $20 for 2 more years after that. 12 team OBP
|
4:31 |
: I’d try to trade him personally
|
4:31 |
: He’ll have cost about $30 by the time he’s in the majors just in time to jump to $35
|
4:32 |
: I think the math sort of works, but I’d rather someone else deal with it.
|
4:32 |
: Need SP’s, are there any prospects nearing a call-up?
|
4:32 |
: Any SP call ups on the radar to keep an eye on?
|
4:33 |
: For all the people asking about pitching prospects, my radar is mostly dry. Spend most of your time looking in High- and Double-A. Triple-A is garbage town.
|
4:33 |
: JD Davis worth a pickup with the uptick in playing time plus phenomenal batted ball profile? Its him or Vanmeter as my last bench spot
|
4:33 |
: I’d try Davis over VanMeter. It’s close.
|
4:33 |
: Favorite minor league team talent wise?
|
4:33 |
: I don’t follow them like that, but my hometown Durham Bulls always have a fun collection of players.
|
4:34 |
: What SP would you have to get if trading Glasnow in dynasty? Looking to compete now
|
4:34 |
: I always going looking for Charlie Morton if trying to convert FV to PV
|
4:34 |
: it’s the cleanest conversion since we all know he plans to retire after his current contract
|
4:34 |
: No messy conversations about 2024
|
4:35 |
: What depth of redraft league should we be cutting Austin Riley now? How much dynasty value does he retain?
|
4:35 |
: Dynasty value remains high. The power played more than I expected.
|
4:35 |
: He’s not must-own in 12-team mixed redraft
|
4:35 |
: Thoughts on Tyler Beede ROS?
|
4:36 |
: I’m a big fan of Beede’s breakout.
|
4:36 |
: He has guaranteed me at least one correct Bold Prediction
|
4:36 |
: Somehow not playing Danny Santana more often is costing me my place in the standings… he can’t really keep this up, can he?
|
4:36 |
: Danny Santana is one of my regrets this year because I’m completely flummoxed as to why he’s succeeding
|
4:37 |
: Some guys are good when they’re at 100% health and suck when they’re even the slightest bit nicked up
|
4:37 |
: Could be Santana is one of those guys?
|
4:37 |
: Just a guess
|
4:37 |
: Harper for Bieber?
|
4:37 |
: Redraft I assume. I hate it personally.
|
4:37 |
: But I can see taking the leap in a AVG league
|
4:38 |
: Can’t do it in OBP
|
4:38 |
: Is Vazquez still a closer tomorrow night?
|
4:38 |
: Sounds like it depends on Gavin Lux.
|
4:38 |
: Where are the trades!?!?
|
4:38 |
: So, this is an unfortunate side effect of The One True Trade Deadline
|
4:40 |
: Unless the market is flooded – which is only really true for middle reliever types – then sellers are incentivized to wait until the last minute
|
4:40 |
: It’s a game of chicken
|
4:40 |
: For example. Thor costs Tucker from the Mets perspective. From the Astros perspective, they’d rather trade a bundle of lesser prospects
|
4:40 |
: One of them will probably blink.
|
4:41 |
: In the case of Thor, the Mets have the added confidence of not needing to deal him
|
4:41 |
: Which is why talks have shifted to Wheeler.
|
4:41 |
: (I kinda think Wheeler is better anyway)
|
4:41 |
: Do you think Salazar will be in the rotation? He is electric right now.
|
4:42 |
: They have a pretty scruffy bullpen so he helps in both roles
|
4:42 |
: As of this moment, he should have a spot.
|
4:42 |
: To start
|
4:42 |
: Ketel Marte or Shane Bieber in a 5×5 OBP/QS dynasty?
|
4:42 |
: Marte
|
4:42 |
: If the talent level is comparable, it’s always the hitter
|
4:42 |
: More saves ROS…Hendriks or Treinen?
|
4:42 |
: Hendriks
|
4:42 |
: o/u 10% chance DET deals Boyd today/tomorrow
|
4:43 |
: Meant to click the one above this. I haven’t heard a single Boyd rumor. With his recent slump, they’ll probably hold him until the winter
|
4:43 |
: If not permanently
|
4:43 |
: What is your favorite stat to project future hitting performance? xwOBA maybe?
|
4:43 |
: I don’t have a single go-to stat
|
4:44 |
: But I do like to check batted ball and plate discipline profiles
|
4:44 |
: Alex Reyes for Kirby Yates in dynasty?
|
4:44 |
: If Yates is closing, that’s a great value
|
4:44 |
: but… I would wait until after tomorrow if you’re adding Yates
|
4:44 |
: The Yankees could hop on that market
|
4:45 |
: in today’s fantasy, if talent level is similar between elite hitter and elite pitcher, always go pitcher since its the top 20 SP or the GLOB.
|
4:45 |
: Not in dynasty
|
4:45 |
: I’ll say it’s a push in redraft.
|
4:45 |
: The corollary here is that it doesn’t take much pitching to post a solid point total
|
4:46 |
: Thank you for the chat Brad. I read the transcript each week that I am not able to join live. 🙂
|
4:46 |
: You’re welcome!
|
4:46 |
: What’s with the recent Closer blowups? Chapman, Smith, Hendriks, Osuna, CMart, Doolittle etc…seems like there’s been few clean saves lately
|
4:46 |
: No kidding. It’s been a messy stretch
|
4:46 |
: Are you selling Whitley or holding in dynasty formats?
|
4:46 |
: Buying. His value is down. It’s time to pounce. Assuming he’s actually discounted.
|
4:46 |
: Sick of hearing fantasy players talk about this so-called glob. Being able to parse the glob IS the challenge. Do you agree?
|
4:48 |
: There’s a bit of random number generator to it. For example, I don’t think it’s skill that I happened to pick up Shark and Fiers for hot streaks. I grabbed them for 2-start weeks and they shoved. Then they kept pitching well.
|
4:48 |
: What does C Frazier fetch in return in H2H 16 team league?
|
4:48 |
: I’ve had trouble finding any swaps involving Frazier
|
4:49 |
: Odds Yates gets traded within 24 hours?
|
4:49 |
: 75%
|
4:49 |
: Currently have Tanaka and Paxton riding the bench the last few weeks…think either rights the ship this year?
|
4:49 |
: Yes, pretty good chance.
|
4:49 |
: The thing is, you’re either going to miss those games on your bench, or you’ll have to risk using them
|
4:49 |
: brb, I need a snack for the stretch run
|
4:50 |
: Going back to Salazar, I missed that he was just activated and will make a 70 pitch start
|
4:52 |
: Munoz insta grab?
|
4:52 |
: yep
|
4:52 |
: Bob Villar is in my league. He doesn’t know what he’s talking about so just ignore him
|
4:52 |
: Are my woes entirely related to injuries? Or a sign of the beginning of the end of my keeper value?
|
4:52 |
: I think it’s injuries
|
4:52 |
: What percent of FAAB you bidding on Salazar?
|
4:53 |
: I never win these sorts of guys
|
4:53 |
: My FAAB game is to take the leftovers
|
4:53 |
: *In hindsight*, an elite pitcher is more valuable than an elite hitter. Problem is how often the “elite” pitcher turns out to be Kluber or Sale or Snell or Carrasco or……
|
4:53 |
: Precisely
|
4:54 |
: Is Forrest Whitley worth keep outside of forever keeper or deep dynasty leagues? I don’t want to get stuck in another Mark Appel relationship …
|
4:54 |
: Appel isn’t a good comp here. There’s more cause for concern than before the season, but he still looks like a big asset
|
4:55 |
: 75% chance. Uh oh. That’s a lot higher chance than most of us were thinking.
|
4:55 |
: Just a guess
|
4:55 |
: They have to reason to keep him and every reason to turn him into a top prospect
|
4:56 |
: Who is a good comp for this youngster? LeMahieu?
|
4:56 |
: Somebody wants me to write about Arraez
|
4:56 |
: Been getting (ignoring) a lot of questions
|
4:56 |
: I think the profile is more of poor man’s Nick Madrigal
|
4:57 |
: which might not be super helpful if you’re not familiar with Madrigal
|
4:57 |
: I’m back!
|
4:57 |
: Sorry, just trying to frame the question in a way you’d like it posted.
|
4:58 |
: Clever enough. I think you mentioned Jeff McNeil at one point which isn’t entirely off base
|
4:58 |
: Has the same minimal power/speed with high average potential
|
4:58 |
: Nicky Lopez is another good comp
|
4:58 |
: ROS: Salazar or Sean Manaea?
|
4:58 |
: EZ Salazar
|
4:59 |
: I’m not entirely sure when we decided Manaea was good
|
4:59 |
: I went looking a month ago when Eno cut him in a deep dynasty league. I had first waiver but decided to pass. He’s never been better than ok.
|
4:59 |
: Salazar has been a stud at times
|
5:00 |
: Boy Lamet is difficult to watch. Drop him for Woj?
|
5:00 |
: Ya, easy enough imo
|
5:00 |
: What to do with H. Dozier? Hold or drop for Nunez or Vogelbach?
|
5:00 |
: 10-team, right?
|
5:00 |
: I’d go Vogey as my primary
|
5:00 |
: and stream
|
5:01 |
: swap in the others when Vogel draws LHP
|
5:01 |
: what should I do with Giles? hold? sell low?
|
5:01 |
: I think you’re stuck
|
5:01 |
: Good news is the Blue Jays might be too
|
5:01 |
: so he’ll continue to close
|
5:01 |
: No need to post this one. The Jeff McNeil one wasn’t actually me. Looks like more people have Arraez interest than me. Really appreciate the chat.
|
5:01 |
: You can’t tell me what to do!
|
5:01 |
: Any sneaky names worth chasing for steals late in the season? Peterson? Locastro? Other?
|
5:02 |
: Ugh, the SB market is a joke
|
5:02 |
: I tried to get Jarrod Dyson in a 20-team dynasty and was quoted Jesse Winker
|
5:02 |
: which reminds me, I think I’ll offer Winker for Mallex
|
5:03 |
: By the way, I’ve not seen one question about Nick Pivetta
|
5:03 |
: He’s apparently the latest conversion stud
|
5:04 |
: Fastball up 2 mph, SwStr% jumped into 20% range
|
5:04 |
: In a dynasty/keeper, does he still have elite SP upside?
|
5:04 |
: No
|
5:05 |
: Am I the 9th inning answer for the Phillies?
|
5:05 |
: More saves rest of season: LeClerc or Pivetta?
|
5:05 |
: If they’re feeling stingy, maybe.
|
5:05 |
: It’ll be easier to play this game in a couple days. I’ll say Leclerc for now.
|
5:05 |
: I’m a big believer in Ramon Laureano … but his reliance on BABIP really concerns me. Especially given his subpar MLB plate discipline. Should I be concerned long term? Or should I just shut up and enjoy the ride?
|
5:05 |
: I think we’re looking at a very streaky hitter
|
5:06 |
: The profile is different, but I’d comp him to Domingo Santana
|
5:06 |
: What do you expect from Kluber ROS?
|
5:06 |
: 4 or 5 starts with a strikeout per inning and decent ratios?
|
5:06 |
: Hunter Dozier or Brendan McKay in an OBP/QS Dynasty?
|
5:06 |
: McKay for me
|
5:07 |
1.16 league. Advanced. Need a HOLD. Who should I drop? Would you prioritize em please? JKelly PBaez Gant DanielHudson DPhelps DHolland(not Greg) RHarper Treinen 2.Castellanos Desmond Pederson Smoak BReynolds Renfroe. Which two should I keep on? 3.Backstops. I got CKelly but JMcCann WRamos DJansen Alfaro BMcCann in wire. Whos gonna be the best ROS? |
5:07 |
: 1. you need one today? Phelps is the drop then because he’s not with the Cubs
|
5:08 |
: Prioritizing them is a bit much for this format.
|
5:09 |
: 2. I have it narrowed down to Pederson, Reynolds, and Renfroe
|
5:09 |
: 3. Stick with Kelly
|
5:09 |
: Does he help teams during stretch run?
|
5:09 |
: He’s been helping my teams
|
5:09 |
: Among players who have fallen out of favor with their current organizations, who is more likely to be part of a trade package tonight or tomorrow: Foltynewicz, Wacha, or McHugh?
|
5:09 |
: I think Folty is likeliest of that group
|
5:10 |
: They’ve given him plenty of chances and have embarrassing pitching depth
|
5:10 |
: I suspect the Cardinals are more tired of Wacha, but they have less depth
|
5:10 |
: As for McHugh, pretty sure the Astros still really like him
|
5:10 |
: Time to wrap it up
|
5:10 |
: An owner in my league keeps spamming me with borderline insulting offers. Not in terms of one-to-one talent, but in terms of his obviously paying 0 attention to my needs. Example: he offers me up Jose Altuve for my Trevor Bauer when I already have Merrifield and need more (not less) SP. I’m about to burn this bridge, hard. Any reason I shouldn’t?
|
5:11 |
: Sometimes I’ll write up a ranting message then delete it
|
5:11 |
: I recommend something pithier like “dude, try”
|
5:12 |
: Going to go over my innings limit, want to move an arm or two and make better use of my roster spots. Should I differentiate between Chirinos, Gibson, Lucchesi, and Wood, or just take the best offer?
|
5:12 |
: Best offer
|
5:12 |
: Tanaka for Jeff McNeil? Which side in 12 team roto, all things equal?
|
5:12 |
: McNeil I think
|
5:12 |
: I do the exact same! Number of rants written: published in all forums around 3:1.
|
5:13 |
: Yea, that’s probably about my ratio
|
5:13 |
: There are certain (very few) people I just don’t give a shit about being courteous to and there are people who I know will take it well.
|
5:13 |
: Becoming unusable or still worth riding it out with him?
|
5:13 |
: Play matchups
|
5:14 |
: Am I the next ARod?
|
5:14 |
: Seems premature
|
5:14 |
: But the talent is roughly on par
|
5:14 |
: I have too many OF. Consequently I want to trade one of them to a non-contender for value elsewhere in my lineup. But I have strong concerns that this other own will immediately up and trade this OF to my biggest rival – who coincidentally needs OF help. Is the better play to make my team better or try and keep my opponent from getting better at my own expense?
|
5:15 |
: Typically, you should worry about your own needs, but you could do a quick standings audit to gauge loss/gain
|
5:15 |
: Alrighty folks, good game
|
5:15 |
: Price or Bauer, ROS?
|
5:16 |
: Uh, Price. Maybe?
|
5:16 |
: Is “The Opener” here to stay or just a thing for now?
|
5:16 |
: Staying
|
5:16 |
: Better stash Yandy Diaz or Brandon Lowe?
|
5:16 |
: Lowe
|
5:16 |
: OBP league, could you rank Voit, Abreu, and M. Brantley ROS?
|
5:16 |
: Brantley, Voit, Abreu
|
5:16 |
Brad: still holding out, but it’s a short leash. And he’s on my bench. See what happens tomorrow. |
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam