Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 7/3/2018
Here’s today’s chat transcript. Next up is Justin Mason later this afternoon.
12:01 |
: Hey folks, I’m just finishing getting some thoughts down on paper. We’ll get started here in a few minutes.
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12:04 |
: Ok, you have my attention now!
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12:04 |
: I was typing up my “solution” to weekly leagues.
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12:05 |
: For me, I need daily engagement or the league might as well not exist. I can’t do this check on Sunday nonsense.
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12:05 | : If you’re curious, here’s what I suggest – |
12:05 |
: And now, on to the good stuff
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12:05 |
: Are you a Manaea believer? Or time to sell high on him?
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12:05 |
: I’d rather sell high than hold, but that doesn’t mean to just take the best offer
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12:06 |
: So often, I see somebody try to sell high and fail
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12:06 |
: My home keeper league, a guy was trying to Bauer and others to pry cheap Soto away from me.
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12:06 |
: When I pushed back, he swapped Bauer for Moustakas
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12:07 |
: Bauer was $15 to keep and Moose should not be kept at any price in this format (I think he costs $8).
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12:07 |
: Guy isn’t contending so keeper price was everything
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12:07 |
: Anyway… don’t settle for a moose
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12:07 |
: Keep forever h2h using FGpts scoring. Trade Darvish/Bieber for (Rodgers and the roster spot)?
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12:08 |
: I don’t think I’m that keen on Rodgers. Besides, SP inventory is everything in H2H. I’m 12-1 with a terrible roster purely because I make two starts every day. My one loss was because all my starts got clumped on two days.
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12:09 |
Trade Devers, Corbin, Skaggs, Giles, Jimenez, Caleb Smith + Luis Robert FOR Kluber, Doolittle, Cody Allen, and Crawford?   |
12:10 |
: Seems like a lot. I’d try to replace Corbin with a fringy upside SP like Covey rather than a currently performing one.
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12:10 |
: Would you be starting German vs. ATL today?
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12:10 |
: It depends. I am in one league because I’m 80 IP behind pace
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12:10 |
: But if you’re ahead of pace, I’d probably holster that start
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12:12 |
: Are you starting Fulmer vs. CHC today – 12 team roto (QS), 180 start limit and I’m 5 starts over the pace. Thanks!
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12:12 |
: I am not
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12:12 |
: ROS any major separation between: Joe Musgrove, Dereck Rodriguez, Nick Pivetta, or Kyle Hendricks?
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12:12 |
: Not really, I probably like Pivetta most and Pudge Jr. least
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12:13 |
: Similar assets though
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12:13 |
: With Gant going full bed shatting, do we see Dakota Hudson?
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12:13 |
: I was reading something about him today, didn’t sound like the Cards want to push him
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12:13 |
: Would you keep Jo Adell, Eloy andor Forrest Whitley in a 12 teams 10 keepers h2h league? Im rebuilding
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12:14 |
: Definitely Eloy. Not so sure about the others. Seems a little shallow to need Adell. Whitley could show enough by end of season I guess.
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12:14 |
: My twitter is going nuts, one moment please
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12:15 |
: Unique league (5×5 w/OBP but limited moves, and players are “tied” to their DL replacements). I have Pollock tied to J-Mart, and I can’t keep both. I can, however, trade them both for an upgrade. I’ve asked for slightly disappointing top-tier hitters like Votto, Stanton, Harper. How low should I aim? I have 2 weeks. Are Nellie Cruz or Kris Bryant good targets? Springer enough of an upgrade? Thanks.
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12:15 |
: Boy that’s tricky
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12:16 |
: So the bar to cross is “better than Pollock”
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12:16 |
: While also not overly helping a direct competitor
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12:17 |
: I like Bryant, Stanton, and Harper as targets. I’m a tad hesitant about Votto, Cruz, and Springer. Not sure they’re an upgrade on Pollock.
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12:17 |
: Would like to see more from Pollock since he was mid-breakout when he went down. That’s an injury that can linger for awhile though.
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12:17 |
: Semien or Jorge Polanco ROS?
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12:17 |
: Semien I guess. They’re pretty similar
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12:18 |
: Do you think we continue to see Lugo used for some multi-inning holds?
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12:18 |
: Yes
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12:18 |
: So what is your take on Shane Bieber after four starts?
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12:18 |
: Josh Tomlin with more whiffs and ground balls
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12:18 |
: Which is kinda fantastic
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12:19 |
: I think he’ll underperform his peripherals, just like Tomlin, but because he has the whiffs and grounders, it won’t be as painful
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12:19 |
: Thoughts on Max Fried?
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12:19 |
: Not a major leaguer? I’ll look again to see if anything has changed
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12:20 |
: Ah, I see the one good start has everyone excited.
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12:20 |
: I should have noted, I was without internet from June 22 to July 1 so I haven’t quite caught up on everything that happened during that period.
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12:21 |
: Fortunately, what we do here at FanGraphs rarely relies/cares about one week of performance.
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12:21 |
: Getting back to Fried…
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12:22 |
: Command still smells like an issue, but I like the whiffs+grounders. Maybe he can be a MLBer after all. Since the change barely plays, profile reads as a reliever.
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12:22 |
: What is Yoenis Cespedes value? I was offered him for Kenta Maeda in a 12 team league
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12:22 |
: Uncertain. Unless you need league average IP, I like that gamble
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12:22 |
: I really like it
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12:23 |
: If you catch vintage Cespedes, he carries you. If he’s permanently hurt, you get a DL replacement similar to Maeda. If he’s just fine upon returning – well that’s the same as Maeda
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12:23 |
: Seems unlikely he’d flat out suck
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12:24 |
: Is there any hope for Tyler Chatwood?
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12:24 |
: Not really
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12:24 |
: He’s a bad command, kinda ground ball pitcher who’s trending the wrong way
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12:24 |
: I had hoped some instruction outside of Coors would help
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12:24 |
: Doesn’t seem likely now
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12:25 |
: i have archer and cueto coming off the DL soon…can only keep 8 SP in a H2H points league. which of these do you drop: cole, paxton, pivetta, flaherty, f. peralta, wood, wheeler.
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12:26 |
: Well that’s 7 options so I assume the other guy is an ace? Obviously have to keep Cole and Paxton. Probably leave Pivetta and Flaherty too. Peralta likely bounced up and down so he seems obvious. Wood or Wheeler for the next cut.
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12:26 |
: But you might not actually need the second cut. Decent chance somebody else DLs by the time Archer and Cueto are back.
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12:26 |
: Jorge Polanco or Johan Camrgo ROS? in 2019?
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12:26 |
: Polanco without question
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12:27 |
: Camargo is a bench player
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12:27 |
: The Twins have to trade Rodney before he loses any more value…right?
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12:27 |
: You’re assuming he has value?
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12:27 |
: I think they extract maximum value by waiting. And it won’t be much, just their choice of C-grade prospect rather than their trading partner’s choice.
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12:28 |
: Searching for fingey SPs with upside. I had Dereck Rodriguez and swapped him for Fried (after the big K game). Do you have a preference?
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12:29 |
: I like Rodriguez more, but he lacks any kind of upside. Just kind of an acceptable 4.00 ERA profile with potential to scratch a 3.50 ERA. Fantasy average WHIP and Ks
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12:29 |
: Fried, I suppose, could do something more exciting. But the downside is steep.
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12:30 |
: Hey Justin Mason, hope you’re well. Since you’re Justin Mason, I’d like to ask you a personal question: Pollock is back now, so who would you drop: Eaton, Puig, Soto – thinking Puig, eh? Cespedes is still on the DL b/c his legs fell off or something…
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12:30 |
: Seems foolish to cut any of them. Gotta be a busted SP or RP hanging around the back end of your roster…
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12:31 |
: Basically, drop your worst player rather than the guy whose spot Pollock takes. Then trade an OF for an upgrade at the other spot.
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12:31 |
: Assuming people in your league trade. I know that can be easier said than done in some leagues.
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12:31 |
: Jorge Polanco or Moncada ROS in roto 6×6 OBP?
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12:31 |
: Moncada
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12:32 |
: So we’ve triangulated the following thus far: Camargo<Polanco<Moncada/Semien
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12:32 |
: The relationship between Semien/Moncada has yet to be ascertained.
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12:33 |
: Shark pitched OK yesterday…gave up 2 dingers and only K’d 2 i believe. Does he suck? I’ve been holding all year and I think I hate him.
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12:33 |
: He probably sucks. Lemme look at the latest peripherals
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12:34 |
: All those homers in the minors are not promising
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12:35 |
: I’ve asked this question before, but can we get an article on how to exactly use the projection systems? What’s the difference between the Update and the ROS? I’d like to find a system for future value so that I can evaluate trades and add/drops, etc.
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12:35 |
: Use the Depth Charts (R)
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12:35 |
: they’re an even blend of ZIPS and Steamer with playing time set by a FanGraphs staffer
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12:36 |
: If you prefer a more aggressive projection based on current performance, THE BAT fits the bill
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12:37 |
: Personally, I do not recommend using projections to evaluate fantasy decisions in mid-July. Custom analysis should be more accurate.
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12:37 |
: A projection will tell you to sell Max Muncy for anything at all
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12:37 |
: for example
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12:37 |
: What do I do with Godly? Is there any other struggling pitcher I should target for?
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12:37 |
: Either hold and hope he figures it out, or see if somebody else is prepared to play the waiting game.
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12:37 |
: As for targets…
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12:38 |
: Ken Giles, Roberto Osuna, Velasquez, Gibson, Keuchel, Fulmer, Gausman, Gray (either), and Wheeler come to mind
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12:40 |
: J Polonco, Marte, or Solarte in a OBP/SLG league?
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12:40 |
: Ketel Marte?
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12:40 |
: Probably Solarte
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12:40 |
: Similar assets
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12:40 |
: Conforto is still worth keeping in a 20 team keep-up-to-15 league right? hes been so bad :/
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12:40 |
: Very much so
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12:41 |
: Treat him as a top asset in this format
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12:41 |
: Is this the real Zunino? I have been putting off a change, but time to roll with Barnhart, Gomes, Chirinos?
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12:41 |
: I don’t think so. Zunino has always been so streaky. Which makes sense for a .200 hitter with power.
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12:42 |
: Just wait for the good times to roll. You should have been prepared for this when you signed up.
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12:42 |
: You catch any of Borucki’s start yesterday? Kid looked good after the first inning. Think he sticks around in Toronto’s rotation all season?
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12:43 |
: Sorry, I did not. Decent chance he does, although I’d expect unrosterable numbers.
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12:43 |
: Doesn’t have the history of whiffs or command necessary to quickly transition to the majors.
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12:43 |
: Where does DeJong fit into that middle infield name train? He’s off the DL soon I think.
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12:44 |
: He’s top dog
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12:44 |
: So… Camargo<Polanco<Semien/Moncada<DeJong
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12:44 |
: Could be wrong about DeJong though
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12:44 |
: 10 teamer, 2 catcher league, is snagging Astudillo smart since he has a pathway to everyday time right now?
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12:44 |
: Seems reachy, but if you’re starting dross it can’t hurt
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12:45 |
: Shelby Miller has 11 Ks in 8.2 innings of work. That’s pretty solid stuff. Think he tightens up his control a bit and is a useful back end SP ROS?
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12:45 |
: Quite possible
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12:45 |
: Fair flier although you’ll have to wait to use him
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12:45 |
: Notably, his velocity is where it was last season
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12:45 |
: What do you think about Schoop ROS?
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12:45 |
: Solid buy low in sufficiently deep leagues. Fringe cut-able in 12 team. Waiver fodder in 10 team
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12:46 |
: Trying to predict whether Brandon Crawford will continue to be above-average, and whether Michael Conforto will continue to be below-average. Do you have a hunch on both/either? Thank you.
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12:46 |
: Crawford isn’t a .370 BABIP hitter
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12:46 |
: so…
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12:46 |
: And Conforto probably ruined his season by rushing back from injury
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12:46 |
: But he could rebound at any moment
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12:46 |
: Would you trade Contreras and Devers for Gary Sanchez and Keston Hiura in a 10tm H2H dynasty?
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12:47 |
: Seems like a modest overpay
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12:47 |
: Ah, Jon Gray…as a statistical enthusiast I’ve been a big fan this year, waiting for him to turn around and being happy with the Ks, but I guess major league clubs only care about W/L nowadays. How long you think he stays down and should I have kept him?
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12:47 |
: Not long. I assume there’s something specific they want him to work on.
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12:47 |
: Sometimes when a pitcher is struggling they get too nibbly. One solution is to send them to the minors
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12:47 |
: For Carlos Carrasco and others, a stint in the bullpen worked better.
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12:48 |
: I still like the long term value if you want to pop him on your watch list
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12:48 |
: I’ve hit on Nimmo, Muncy, and Hicks via the waiver wire. Is there a sell (high-ish) in that group or are they all holds?
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12:48 |
: Muncy might produce some juice, but you’re probably stuck with them
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12:48 |
: Not that that’s a problem
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12:49 |
: Especially Muncy with his 1B/2B/3B/OF eligibility on Yahoo
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12:49 |
: 10 teamer 40 per roster is holding Nimmo at least till after the all-star break to give his hand some time a good option or is he droppable now?
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12:49 |
: He’s not droppable in this format
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12:49 |
: Who do you like better ROS – Jon Gray or German Marquez?
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12:49 |
: Gray
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12:49 |
: When would be a prudent time to roster Osuna and Cano in 12 team leagues…? Thanks
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12:49 |
: Now? Next week?
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12:49 |
: I wouldn’t wait too much longer
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12:50 |
: That said, it’s perfectly acceptable to let somebody else bear that roster burden
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12:50 |
: But if you want ’em. You need to move soon.
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12:50 |
: What to do with Buxton and Sano?
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12:50 |
: I’d probably discard Buxton and keep Sano for now
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12:50 |
: Assuming 12 team without keeper considerations
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12:51 |
: Fantasy philosophy question for ya: shallow league. no SP. i mean, Giolito is rostered. i’ve been playing .500 ball while waiting for like 6 DL guys to get back: Pollock, Cueto, Archer, Cespedes, D Murphy, Eaton, Cahill, Shark, Pomeranz, etc. Better to stick it out as long as you’re a middle of the pack team so you can get healthy and make a run or should i cut most of these chumps early on?
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12:52 |
: Should probably have cut around the fringes – i.e. Shark and Pom. Most of those guys are must-keep
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12:52 |
: The longer you hold them, the more you should just wait it out
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12:53 |
: Can I just say I hate pitchers? In a 12 team NL only, I ran out Thor, Darvish, Gray, Shark, Roark, and Nova (all top 35 by projections) and, as you guessed… I suck. How much of this is luck? I look at someone like Theo Epstein… he has to hate pitchers more than me, right?
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12:53 |
: This is why we do 70/30 splits in auction leagues. Pitcher points are worth just as much as hitter points, but they’re so much less reliable.
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12:54 |
: Any concerns with Harper? Should I try to trade to him and if so who should I look for in return?
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12:54 |
: Not really. He seems to do this. Now is not the time to sell. You missed that window
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12:55 |
: You just used the > symbol incorrectly
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12:55 |
: Prove it 🙂
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12:55 |
: DeJong or Simmons ROS? I love Simmons b/c I watch him play, but the counting stats aren’t too hot. DeJong seems like a lock for 15 HRs ROS…
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12:55 |
: Depends on your stat needs. Definitely more HR with DeJong
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12:55 |
: I have Springer/Hoskins in an OBP/SLG league and I can most likely only keep one going forward. Hoskins is actually putting up better numbers? Especially in ratios. Am I crazy? Seemed obvious Springer was the choice before
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12:56 |
: What are these leagues you guys play in? I can’t even imagine having to choose between Springer and Hoskins!
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12:56 |
: They’re both very good players. I don’t think you’ll regret owning either of them barring injury
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12:56 |
: which is unpredictable
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12:57 |
: Re: the Rodgers question earlier, there’s a weekly start limit, so we can’t really win pitching on sheer volume. If that factors into your thoughts at all.
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12:57 |
: Oh, so it’s not ottoneu H2H FGpts, it’s just an H2H league with FGpts ported in?
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12:58 |
: In that case, I don’t remember the question.
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12:58 |
: However, I’m not so keen about Rodgers that I consider him must-own over presently useful players.
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12:59 |
: Nimmo slumping of late, should I hold in 12 team H2H league?
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12:59 |
: Yes. Slumps happen.
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12:59 |
: If Vladito can be kept through 2020 for $10 & $12, how much excess value are we talking about there in a 12 tm mixed?
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12:59 |
: Uh…
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1:00 |
: That’s a lot to pay for somebody who may not debut until mid 2019. Let’s do this… hang onto him because there’s huge potential. But wait until Sept or Oct t evaluate his value.
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1:00 |
: So much can happen between now and when you have to make any kind of decision
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1:01 |
: In the mean time, if anybody makes you a crazy offer, he’s not so cheap that you have to keep him
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1:01 |
: Like the best case scenario is that he’s instantly a $30 player, right?
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1:01 |
: But the mean/median has him in the $5 to $15 range.
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1:02 |
: What are the chances that Kolten Wong turns it around enough to become a useful NL-only player?
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1:02 |
: Kinda low once DeJong pushes everybody down the spectrum
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1:02 |
: Concerns on Blackmon? Has done nothing at home, just 9 doubles so far…
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1:02 |
: Nothing specific. Just waiting…
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1:02 |
: NL-only, drop Wong or Conforto?
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1:03 |
: Wong. Definitely Wong
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1:03 |
: It’s Wong of you to even ask that question
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1:03 |
: Is glasnow going to get a chance to start again or is he a reliever now?
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1:03 |
: I think so
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1:03 |
: The Pirates have plenty of SP depth for the moment so they don’t have to force the issue. Maybe at the deadline if/when Ivan Nova is dealt
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1:04 |
: Nice fix, as a math teacher, I notice those things. but really, that comment of mine gets posted instead of either of my questions.
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1:04 |
: ha!
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1:05 |
: I get a lot of questions which means I end up skipping a LOT to catch up to present comments. Your >< comment happened to be at the top of a skip. I probably completely missed the others.
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1:05 |
: Waiting for an article on Bryce Harper’s disappointing season. He’s been fairly mediocre (by his standards) this season
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1:05 |
: Not my beat – at least not until October/November
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1:06 |
: brandon crawford or paul dejong ROS? I’m in a dynasty league but own Corey Seager.
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1:06 |
: I lean DeJong, but it depends on your stat needs
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1:06 |
: Newcomb against the yanks today?
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1:06 |
: Probably not unless you need it
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1:06 |
: would you trade Kris Bryant for Degromm in an OBP/QS dynasty league? Have Ramirez, Belt, and Olson for next year and Davidson to fill in the rest of this year
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1:06 |
: Not straight up. deGrom can headline the package
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1:07 |
: The issue is pitcher break so much more often than hitters. Plus age…
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1:07 |
: And I’m only considering that trade if I absolutely need an ace to win
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1:07 |
: A non-contender should let you roster raid them in return for Bryant
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1:08 |
: looking to trade Scherzer.. offensive categories are runs/doubles/HR/RBI/SB/OBP. Who do you like most ROS Betts, Nolan, or Machado?
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1:08 |
: Betts
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1:08 |
: But I don’t think you can get him with Scherzer. At least you shouldn’t be able to
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1:08 |
: Go ahead and try though.
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1:08 |
: PS… my offense is actually good… I am testing the bounds of how bad my pitching numbers can be and still win a league… it is just incredibly frustrating. But again, probably not as frustrating as actual smart GMs who think they make the right moves to win, and then suck AND have to pay these guys to suck.
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1:09 |
: I’m doing the same in one league. In second place by half a point but my pitchers are somehow only doing well in Ws. Bottom two in ERA and WHIP
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1:10 |
: Usually in this league I have a top three ERA/WHIP and dead last in wins. I don’t really understand.
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1:10 |
: I’ll try again. Castillo was a keeper of mine last year, see any chance he gets back to there or should I try and trade him? (I’m in sell mode)
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1:11 |
: There’s potential
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1:11 |
: It depends on your settings
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1:11 |
: I’d definitely listen to offers though
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1:11 |
: After consistently being rattled with injuries, what do you currently think about Wil Myers and his potential?
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1:11 |
: I think he’s never been healthy as an outfielder
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1:12 |
: And I don’t see why I’d pay for that now
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1:12 |
: I’ll take a free flier in shallow formats just to see, but I can’t justify any serious investment
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1:12 |
: Back to that Bryant for Degromm trade, would you pull the trigger with Rendon included?
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1:12 |
: Bryant for deGrom and Rendon? Seems reasonable.
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1:12 |
: Time to wrap it up folks…
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1:12 |
: Any RPs your stashing thinking that they get bumped into closing after a trade?
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1:13 |
: Well Jimenez WAS near the top of that list…
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1:13 |
: Swarzak?
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1:13 |
: Let me make some leaderboards…
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1:14 |
: Trivino
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1:14 |
: Ottavino could be traded into a job
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1:15 |
: Twins bullpen is a mess
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1:15 |
: Red bullpen is a mess after Iglesias
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1:15 |
: Really don’t think Hand will be dealt
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1:16 |
: I bet Bearclaw is traded to a setup role, but I’m not sure who will be left in Miami
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1:16 |
: At this point, they’re all shots in the dark.
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1:16 |
: Salvador Perez – he’s been awful. hold or try to pick someone off the wire?
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1:16 |
: Depends on the format. Can play around in 10 team, 1 C
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1:16 |
: Hold in deeper
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1:17 |
: My rotation is a mess and I’m next to last in total pitching. (11-team QS keeper league) I own Kluber, Syndergaard (DL), Darvish (DL), G.Richards (DL), Bundy (DL), Mikolas, Cahill (DL), Eflin, L. Castillo, and Kingham. Do I stick with this talent pool and let it shake out or trade for another SP?
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1:17 |
: You’re probably stuck
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1:17 |
: Always look to improve, of course, but it might not be practical at this point
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1:17 |
: You just got crushed by injuries
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1:17 |
: 12-tm H2H keeper, if Bryant isn’t keepable and on a shit team, should a $5 Nimmo be enough to pry him away? Bryant is worth nothing on a team in the basement.
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1:18 |
: Should? Maybe. Owner has to like Nimmo. I’m sure there is no limit to $5 alternatives around Nimmo’s asset value.
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1:18 |
: If I owner Bryant, I would not accept Nimmo alone
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1:18 |
: Where my Nimmo Gone
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1:19 |
: It’s just a 10 day slump. Even Jose Altuve sucked for 10 days at one point. And Nimmo is no Altuve.
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1:19 |
: Is there a prime pitcher to target for a trade. Someone who’s perception is less than his real value.
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1:19 |
: Let’s end on this. It’s a good question but I skipped it because I need some time to research.
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1:20 |
: People often undervalue Paxton due to his injury history
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1:20 |
: Clevinger has wonderful numbers
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1:20 |
: Corbin owners seem keen to avoid him turning pumpkin
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1:21 |
: Ditto Morton owners
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1:21 |
: Stripling’s value can vary wildly by league
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1:21 |
: Some owners may try and fail to sell “high” on Snell
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1:22 |
: Carrasco seems like a good target.
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1:23 |
: In the bargain bin, Freeland, Eflin, Taillon, Zimmermann, and Gausman seem to be better than people think.
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1:23 |
: Good game folks. See ya next week. Justin will be up this afternoon.
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You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
“He’ll service you later this afternoon.” Listen, I know lots of people took off but I can’t be doing that in my office…