Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 6/5/2018
by Brad Johnson
June 5, 2018
Today’s chat transcript include a bunch of Jameson Taillon talk.
| 3:56 |
: Hey folks, we’ll get started in a few minutes. In the meantime, if you like DFS, we have a pretty hefty overlay in today’s TDG Invitational – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-daily-grind-bird-lives/
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| 3:56 |
: Presently, a $2 entry is worth $3.10. You may enter twice. It’s on FantasyDraft.
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| 3:56 |
: Hi Brad.
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| 3:56 |
: Hi KIB
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| 3:57 |
: I seem to be stuck in a league where no one trades becaues everyone simultaneously overvalues their high performers (because of course, it will continue) and yet at the same time refuses to devalue their disappointing stars (because of course, it will NOT continue)
Am I going to have to win this thing with WW pickups and then just taunt them all mercilessly? |
| 3:57 |
: Yes. This, unfortunately, is the most common equilibrium status for a redraft league
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| 3:57 |
: It’s the main reason I like keeper/dynasty more
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| 3:58 |
: The extra dimension of time multiplies the number of possible effective strategies
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| 3:58 |
: 12 team saves league where my only closer is bud norris. worth dropping any of flaherty, manaea, musgrove, tyson ross, e-rod, junis, or hamels for barraclough, melancon, or blake parker?
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| 3:58 |
: Yes.
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| 3:58 |
: Pick up all three.
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| 3:59 |
: My cuts are probably Hamels, Junis, and ERod, but I’d put a little more time into making those choices if I were you.
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| 3:59 |
: Melancon then Bearclaw then Parker as you’re prioritizing the moves
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| 3:59 |
: mallex smith or jankowski RoS?
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| 3:59 |
: Mallex is more likely to play consistently. That Padres OF logjam will catch up to Jankowski eventually.
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| 3:59 |
: Would you move Brantley and one of Jose Martinez / Lamb for Strasburg in a 12 team h2h? If so, which of those would you include in the deal? Thanks!
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| 4:00 |
: Yes and no strong preference. I assume you need pitching more than hitting.
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| 4:00 |
: The Houston outfield production ex-Springer has been pedestrian at best. Any chance they see what Kyle Tucker can bring to the party?
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| 4:00 |
: I don’t think that’s in the near future
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| 4:01 |
: Tony Kemp has been fantastic. They’ve been mostly using the other spot to cycle through Marwin, JD Davis, and Marisnick. Reddick will be back soon if memory serves which jams four players into left field
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| 4:02 |
: John Ryan Murphy – not much power until this year. Is he another swing adapter?
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| 4:02 |
: Can’t tell for sure, but it’s a plausible explanation.
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| 4:03 |
: FB rate is WAY up
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| 4:03 |
: So are the Ks
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| 4:03 |
: It’s all small samply
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| 4:03 |
: Conforto back? Last month looks really promising… Thanks!
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| 4:03 |
: Yes. Buy before his owner notices
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| 4:03 |
: Solarte or Semien ROS. OBP League.
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| 4:03 |
: Semien by a nose
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| 4:04 |
: You’re my only nope – no one is answering! Dyntasy 12 team roto (OBP/TB/RBI/R/SB). My $24 Pollock for their $36 Altuve. Both can be kept for 2 more years after this. I’ll likely need to include Whitley in the minors and something else too. Is the shape of that production increase worth the increase in salary? Should I be jumping at the chance to move Pollock’s injuries?
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| 4:04 |
: I think you do it. They’re both easy to build around at those prices. The minor league cost could matter, but that’s up to you to evaluate.
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| 4:05 |
: With Chisenhall coming back, the Tribe is keeping Allen and optioning Zimmer. How long does that last? Guyer due back in not so long…
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| 4:05 |
: I think they mostly want to get Zimmer going in an easier setting
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| 4:05 |
: Guyer might take Melky’s spot
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| 4:06 |
: In a 12-team redraft: Hold onto Gohara and hope he eventually starts? Or opt for DeSclafani, Gibson or Leake?
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| 4:06 |
: I like Gibson as much or more than Gohara
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| 4:06 |
: Is Candelario now in the 30 HR discussion?
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| 4:06 |
: Who isn’t?
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| 4:07 |
: I don’t really see the right components to reliably get there, but it only takes a little luck to go from 20 to 30 HR these days.
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| 4:07 |
: What current closers would you guess get traded to be a setup guy?
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| 4:07 |
: Herrera seems obvious
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| 4:08 |
: Really, anybody on a team that falls out of the race
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| 4:08 |
: But Herrera seems automatic.
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| 4:09 |
: Willing to offer up Albies in a keeper. On a scale of Thor, Snell, Folty, or Ray who should I ask for and who should I settle for?
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| 4:09 |
: I don’t know how to use that scale. Without context of costs/keeper limits, I’d be aiming for Kluber/Sale/Scherzer for Albies+
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| 4:09 |
: To start Paxton tonight @HOU or not to start Paxtton tonight @HOU, that is my question?
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| 4:09 |
: I’m doing it
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| 4:10 |
: Obviously not without risk
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| 4:10 |
: Whats up with J. Taillon? Should I expect a boost in performance with his new slider?
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| 4:10 |
: Yes.
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| 4:10 |
: Luis Castillo or Kyle Gibson?
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| 4:10 |
: Castillo
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| 4:10 |
: Hiya Brad! …12 team h2h cat. Need 2b help. Dratfed Murph and we all know how that’s going. Have been platooning Happ and Kingergy. Drop King for Hanson, or will he play enough? Dietrich also available
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| 4:11 |
: Should be better options than that around the waiver wire.
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| 4:12 |
: I went looking in a similar league I have – Matt Carpenter, Daniel Robertson, and Jonathan Villar are some of the names I came up with
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| 4:12 |
: I’d drop King for sure
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| 4:12 |
: Joe Panik maybe…
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| 4:13 |
: Matt Duffy, Yolmer Sanchez
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| 4:13 |
: Frankie Montas or Dennis Santana in a keeper league prioritizing K’s
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| 4:13 |
: I’ll say Montas, I doubt Santana sticks in the majors
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| 4:13 |
: carlos martinez a good start tonight?
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| 4:14 |
: Not in DFS but elsewhere sure
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| 4:14 |
: Might be a short start
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| 4:14 |
: I punted saves in a 12 team h2h and have had a lot of success since doing so. Would you rather own Devenski/Winkler types to help with ratio’s and K’s, or stream SP’s? Thanks!
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| 4:14 |
: When I punt saves in draft, the plan is always to still finish middle of the pack in the category via those Winkler types ascending
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| 4:15 |
: 10 team h2h (avg and obp league) got offered Chris Taylor, Rick Porcello and Tyson Ross for Jose berrios and Tommy Pham. I am inclined to say no. What say you? Thanks Brad
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| 4:15 |
: Easy no
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| 4:15 |
: In a shallow format, ALWAYS take the best player in the deal
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| 4:15 |
: Your waiver wire is usually comparable to the second tier options like Taylor and Ross
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| 4:15 |
: M Boyd, J Barria, or F Romero. Whose got the better upside this year and long term?
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| 4:16 |
: Boyd will play the most, but I’m not sure I buy the “breakout”
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| 4:16 |
: I like Romero most long term
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| 4:16 |
: any love for gurriel? i would like to trade a corner infielder for pitching and i’d be downgrading to him.
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| 4:16 |
: I don’t hate him
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| 4:16 |
: My co-manager Chad Young has a Gurriel fetish
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| 4:16 |
: I don’t fully understand. He’s a nice real world hitter
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| 4:16 |
: does elvis andrus keep hitting when he comes back or will he struggle like the rest of the rangers lineup?
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| 4:17 |
: I assume he’ll hit until I see otherwise
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| 4:17 |
: 6×6 OPS League. Who’s better 1. ROS and 2. As a keeper for next 5 years: Mazara or Rosario? Thanks!
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| 4:17 |
: I’ll say Mazara ROS, Rosario next 5
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| 4:17 |
: They’re both high risk, high reward
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| 4:17 |
: Rosario is obviously more athletic
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| 4:18 |
: 12 team H2H, 3 SP spots, 2 P spots, and 2 RP spots – How many closers are you trying to have?
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| 4:18 |
: 4
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| 4:18 |
: Maybe 3 and a speculative RP
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| 4:19 |
: It’s annoying when you luck into a 5th CL and everybody low balls you because they think you “have to trade”
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| 4:19 |
: Am I worth rostering in 12 team 5×5 H2H?
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| 4:19 |
: absolutely
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| 4:19 |
: Re: Kelvin Herrera – why so certain he’d be primed for setup duty with a new team? I feel as though many contenders who are in the market for a top of the line reliever also lack a lockdown closer (Hou, Chc, Phi, Atl, Pit/Min if they are buyers). I feel as though teams like NYY/Bos not as inclined to go for top guys like KH or Britton
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| 4:20 |
: Only team he closes on is ATL. I doubt Philly is going to waste resources on a short term reliever. They’re already this far into their rebuild, but they don’t have much chance to contend
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| 4:20 |
: They need the Nats to completely fall apart
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| 4:20 |
: Is Ben Zobrist a better play than Odubel Herrera right now?
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| 4:20 |
: Eh, not really as a OFer
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| 4:20 |
: might be an even flip
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| 4:20 |
: You buying on Shelby Miller as a #7 SP ROS?
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| 4:21 |
: I’ll speculate on him, but let’s not try to handicap what he is before he starts recording stats
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| 4:21 |
: im stupid so what do you mean when you say hefty overlay in dfs?
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| 4:22 |
: An overlay is when a Guaranteed Price Pool (GPP) league has so many open spots that the value of an entry is more than the cost of the entry.
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| 4:22 |
: So in this case, you basically make a dollar (temporarily) by entering.
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| 4:22 |
: Of course, you then have to win or lose in the contest, but your odds of winning are improved
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| 4:22 |
: Thanks B! Panik and Duffy both on WW…I’m assuming either one over Hanson? Don’t think he has any upside?
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| 4:22 |
: There’s upside for sure. I’m not sure I see consistent PT
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| 4:23 |
: Steve Stone just said “Daniel Palka wants to glide into second.” I can not think of a less appropriate way to describe the way Palka runs.
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| 4:23 |
: Emphasis on “wants”
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| 4:23 |
: I want to glide into second too, but I usually just stop at first
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| 4:23 |
: Taillon or Archer rest of year?
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| 4:23 |
: Taillon
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| 4:24 |
: Any updates on Michael Fulmer’s wherewithal this year? Doesnt look so hot right now.
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| 4:24 |
: Fulmer is still a very talented pitcher. Would love to see that Astros get their mitts on him
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| 4:25 |
: Great time to buy low in deep deep dynasty
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| 4:25 |
: Optimistic about Hoskins upon his return? I’m not expecting 40 HR, but I’d still love a 25-90 season…!
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| 4:25 |
: Not especially. Pitchers discovered an exploit, and I don’t see a way for him to fix it
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| 4:26 |
: His swing simply doesn’t cover the high-away corner of the zone. And any shift is likely to expose other issues. Adjustment could take years
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| 4:26 |
: do you see Francisco Mejia getting called up anytime soon?
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| 4:26 |
: I do not
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| 4:26 |
: could be wrong
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| 4:26 |
: He’s currently scuffling at Triple-A so I see no reason they’d want him in the majors
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| 4:26 |
: I doubt he contributes to fantasy owners in the next two seasons
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| 4:27 |
: Go solicit some additional opinions if you’re leaning towards cutting
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| 4:27 |
: What is up with Stanton? Should we be worried or is now the time to buy?
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| 4:27 |
: Buy
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| 4:27 |
: He’s streaky
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| 4:27 |
: 2nd overall in a very deep dynasty keeper league, one category I’m slipping in is SB, even though I have Dozier/Albies/Andrelton/Blackmon/Puig/Buxton. Janikowski is only option on waivers even worth considering, but would be a big downgrade to my OF…should I target SB in a trade, or sit tight and be patient?
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| 4:28 |
: Seems like you could at least plug Jankowski into Buxton’s spot
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| 4:28 |
: Who closes in KC when Herrera gets moved?
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| 4:28 |
: Good question. Brad Keller?
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| 4:28 |
: Assuming he doesn’t stick in the rotation
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| 4:28 |
: I have Musgrove, Yarbrough, and Velasquez, should I drop one for J. Taillon? Looking for Wins and Ks
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| 4:28 |
: Yes, immediately. Not Musgrove.
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| 4:28 |
: Probably Yarbrough
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| 4:29 |
: but Velasquez isn’t exactly a stud either
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| 4:29 |
: Have you found a sweet spot in how a H2H categories league is setup? Types of categories, yearly transaction limits, minimum starts / week, etc.
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| 4:29 |
: I like to keep it fairly standard with the categories
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| 4:29 |
: 5×5 or 6×6
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| 4:30 |
: 10 transactions per week works well
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| 4:30 |
: 25 IP a week works too
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| 4:30 |
: Didi and JTurner dropped in my 10 team points league. Pick either of them up for Teoscar?
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| 4:30 |
: Yes. Either
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| 4:30 |
: and probably find another cut for the other
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| 4:30 |
: 20 team league and I have Rodon coming off the dl. Which long shot future closer should I waive: $2 Roberston or $10 Richard Rodriguez
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| 4:31 |
: Rodriguez probably
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| 4:31 |
: Seemingly farther from saves even though Vazquez is a disaster
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| 4:31 |
: Do you think the only way Jalen Beeks gets an extended look is if there is an injury, or will a few more Pomeranz scuffles force them to give him the call? And is he fantasy relevant in ’18 if he goes every 5th day?
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| 4:32 |
: Steven Wright is first in line.
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| 4:32 |
: I’d say if Pom and Wright leave the door open, Beeks will walk through.
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| 4:32 |
: And he should be rostered at that time. Stashing him now may be a tad extreme in shallower formats
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| 4:33 |
: Why am I terrible? Was last year an illusion?
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| 4:33 |
: The narrative going around is that hitters have learned to lay off his plus curve which is usually thrown as a ball
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| 4:33 |
: And his fastball isn’t especially good
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| 4:34 |
: plus his walk rate is up. My guess is he’s tipping his curve somehow
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| 4:34 |
: how often can both sides reasonably think they’re getting a trade’s best player?
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| 4:34 |
: 25%?
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| 4:34 |
: That’s just a wild guess
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| 4:34 |
: Another reason I like keepers because that figure goes way up based on time horizons.
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| 4:34 |
: What should I do with Godley in a 16 team league? Should I trade him for pennies on the dollar, or wait out a change on my bench? (I don’t think he’s under-performing, I think hitters aren’t fooled by the knuclecurve – which is scary)
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| 4:35 |
: I’m shopping him reluctantly. Trying to find a non-contender who’s willing to gamble on him working it out
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| 4:35 |
: Hi, a few questions. I’m in a keepers league, and we r allowed to keep 1 pitcher and 1 hitter. The only pitcher I have worth keeping is Kershaw, but idk if I actually should with some of the injury concerns he is having. Also, should I look to be getting off marcel ozuna? Was offered justin turner
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| 4:36 |
: Kershaw should still be treated as a top 10 pitcher. So I think you’re alright there. Never hurts to improve
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| 4:36 |
: If you need a 3B, Turner for Ozuna seems fine. Neither should be your hitter keeper
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| 4:36 |
: Which pitcher would you keep in a 16-team, keep forever league: Archer, Jon Gray, Paxton, Buehler, Snell
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| 4:36 |
: I only get one?
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| 4:36 |
: Can we wait until after the season?
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| 4:36 |
: I’m going to answer that: yes
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| 4:37 |
: Not Archer or Gray probably. But maybe one of them
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| 4:37 |
: 🙂
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| 4:37 |
: do i trade moustakas for carrasco? or stanton/mengden for goldschmidt/carrasco? sorry if this is a repeat Q but I am not sure i submitted this one
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| 4:37 |
: I like the Moose swap. I hate the Stanton swap
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| 4:37 |
: so nl keeper currently in 1st traded conforto $5 and Gohara $2 for non keepable Trea Turner and Kirby Yates, did i make a mistake?
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| 4:38 |
: Sounds like you’re gonna win
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| 4:38 |
: Go win that shit
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| 4:38 |
: I keep seeing Crick and Rodriquez bandied about as potential replacements in PIT if Vasquez keeps scuffling or is hurt. What about Glasnow? Seems like a closer waiting to happen but maybe they want to keep him stretched to be a starter…
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| 4:38 |
: So I spent all spring writing about how the DBacks would avoid closing with Bradley because it’s almost impossible to convert a guy from closer to SP
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| 4:39 |
: I think the same is true of Glasnow
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| 4:39 |
: More true even
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| 4:39 |
: Bradley looks pretty fringy as a SP – the DBacks just absolutely need that depth (they’re starting Clay friggin Buchholz)
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| 4:39 |
: Glasnow still projects above average
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| 4:39 |
: Where does Max Muncy fall on the Justin Turner – Chris Taylor spectrum, for you, in fantasy 2018?
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| 4:40 |
: This is another spectrum that doesn’t compute for me
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| 4:40 |
: Max Muncy is Brandon Nimmo’s clone.
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| 4:40 |
: When the hell is Gleyber not going to bat 9th?
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| 4:40 |
: Probably when his peripherals improve
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| 4:41 |
: What are your thoughts on Bellinger from a Dynasty perspective? Is this who he is? A .240 hitter w/ 20 hrs? Or do you think he’ll figure it out and be closer to the player from last year? I’m trying to decide if I should think about moving him while I might still get value
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| 4:41 |
: Honestly, you’ve identified the range of outcomes. It’s a spectrum of possibilities. Anybody who says they know how he’ll turn out is a fraud
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| 4:41 |
: He needs to make adjustments and those are always uncertain
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| 4:42 |
: I did think he was the most likely big HR bat to decline, so I’m gonna pat myself on the back for that one
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| 4:42 |
: (0 shares)
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| 4:42 |
: 12tm roto dynasty. Staff is Nola, Maeda, Snell, Morton, Roark,Quintana, Hendricks, Gausman. Really need closer. WOuld you trade morton for LCastillo and Treinen?
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| 4:43 |
: I think so. Morton hasn’t ruled out retirement after the season
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| 4:43 |
: I doubt he retires, but it’s a risk. You should be happy with one or both of Castillo or Treinen for years
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| 4:43 |
: I love Morton though
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| 4:43 |
: Stick with Rake Lamb over options like Villenueva and Andujar?
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| 4:43 |
: So much ‘eh’
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| 4:44 |
: Pick whichever makes you happiest. They’re all pretty bland fantasy bats. Lamb and Villa probably won’t lose their jobs. Andujar is an obvious candidate to get Machadoed.
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| 4:44 |
: Shouldnt the Tigers sell Castellanos? he looks like hes finally figured it out and hes not “young”. They should be able to continue to stock the system right?
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| 4:45 |
: Well… who is out there offering quality young players for an above average hitter with no defensive home?
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| 4:45 |
: And nobody is going to buy the .407 BABIP. His other peripherals are declining
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| 4:45 |
: archer, reyes, and cueto on the DL. rodon likely getting called up…drop one for him?
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| 4:46 |
: I don’t think so
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| 4:46 |
: Quintana for Sanchez, which side do you like?
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| 4:46 |
: So many Sanchi…
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| 4:47 |
: Gary>Quintana=Carlos>Aaron>Anibal
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| 4:47 |
: Taillon or Kyle Hendricks ROY?
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| 4:47 |
: uh, coin flip
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| 4:47 |
: Like the skill set of Taillon more
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| 4:47 |
: Hendricks has such a high floor though
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| 4:48 |
: Do you need floor or ceiling? i.e. are you near the top or climbing the standings
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| 4:48 |
: trade blackmon for g. cole/nimmo in a 12 team points league? my SP are archer, paxton, castillo, wood, junis, flaherty, pivetta, reyes, cueto. and OF are yelich, teoscar, and polanco..
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| 4:48 |
: No
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| 4:48 |
: Do you see Peter Alonso being a valuable asset to a fantasy team this year?
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| 4:48 |
: No
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| 4:48 |
: Fangraphs puts out so many articles daily that I just can’t keep up
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| 4:49 |
: I’ll admit, I can’t keep up either
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| 4:49 |
: It has been now over 3 weeks and probably 30 starts since one of my opponents pitchers has given up 4 or more runs in a start. 10 times a pitcher has gone 6 and not given up a run. I give up. What do I do now? Stock prospects? Shallow keeper..
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| 4:49 |
: Not much point to stocking prospects in a shallow league. I mean, if Vlad is there, sure
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| 4:49 |
: I wouldn’t reach beyond him
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| 4:50 |
: who the hell is Carlos Sanchez? Maybe you’re thinking Martinez hahah?
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| 4:50 |
: Ahem, Santana
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| 4:50 |
: My mistake
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| 4:50 |
: Carry on
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| 4:50 |
: Drop Pivetta or Cahill for Taillon? H2H, 14 teams, redraft
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| 4:51 |
: Pivetta
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| 4:51 |
: or Cahill honestly. Taillon is better than both
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| 4:51 |
: Pick one Please – Taillon v LAD, Lester v Pit, or Mikolas v Mia. Thanks Brad
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| 4:51 |
: Mikolas
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| 4:51 |
: Matt Chapman still worth rostering in 10 team league?
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| 4:51 |
: Probably not
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| 4:51 |
: Pretty fringy for that depth
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| 4:51 |
: You can Max Muncy or Candelario instead
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| 4:52 |
: I’m tweaking the bottom of my roster and looking for an upside or regression candidate in an OBP league. Would you bet on Muncy or Dexter Fowler over Polanco?
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| 4:52 |
: I don’t know honestly. Seems like a mistake to just cut Polanco.
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| 4:52 |
: I like Muncy more at present, but his playing time isn’t assured
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| 4:52 |
: Fowler could rebound at any moment
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| 4:52 |
: But I think it’s too soon to force that move
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| 4:53 |
: Polanco is the hardest question I get every week
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| 4:53 |
: He’s basically more mediocre Yasiel Puig
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| 4:53 |
: So physically gifted and the results just won’t show up
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| 4:54 |
: Trying to turn some 3B depth into a solid 2B in a dynasty keeper. 5×5 scoring. Which option do you prefer? A) Jose Ramirez for Altuve B) Bregman for Dozier C) Vlad Jr. for Moncada
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| 4:54 |
: Hate ’em all to be honest
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| 4:54 |
: Like you’re getting crushed in all three scenarios
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| 4:55 |
: I guess I should ask how deep the league is, I assumed 20 teams
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| 4:55 |
: And keep forever, no cost
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| 4:55 |
: Whats K. Pillar ros look like?
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| 4:55 |
: Bland
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| 4:55 |
: A few steals, a few home runs, a few R/RBI
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| 4:55 |
: not terrible AVG
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| 4:55 |
: He’s a patch in 12 and shallower
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| 4:56 |
: Follow-up: I may go Muncy for Matt Chapman instead and wait on Polanco. Thanks!
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| 4:56 |
: That is a little easier to swallow
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| 4:56 |
: Godley worth holding? Roto, daily txns +$0 bids. IP/QS are cats. Available: Stratton, Eovaldi, Wheeler, DeSclafani, Lyles, CC, Bettis, Matz, LeBlanc, J. Nelson, Marquez
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| 4:56 |
: Compared to those options, only Lyles interests me
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| 4:57 |
: I may just turn that into a streamer spot though
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| 4:57 |
: Who’s going to win the NL west?
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| 4:57 |
: The Dodgers
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| 4:57 |
: sadly
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| 4:57 |
: Read your earlier post on Castellanos, sell high?
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| 4:57 |
: Yes
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| 4:57 |
: Assuming you can find a schmuck to buy
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| 4:57 |
: Drop Teoscar for Nimmo?
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| 4:57 |
: Easy yes for me
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| 4:58 |
: I’m missing something with Teoscar. Ignoring the actual production for a second, I don’t really see why he should be a starting outfielder
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| 4:58 |
: The skill set adds up to a typical 4th OFer
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| 4:59 |
: Still like DDS ROS? (DeShields)
|
| 4:59 |
: Yes
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| 4:59 |
: Assuming you need SB and can use him as a bench piece
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| 4:59 |
: time to drop jed lowrie in a 12 team points league? moncada on waivers
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| 4:59 |
: Depends on the stats you need.
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| 5:00 |
: Moncada is tempting if you need HR/SB and can afford to hemorrhage AVG
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| 5:00 |
: The run production might be comparable
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| 5:00 |
: What closer should i push for / expect if I hand over Castellanos? Was just offered R. Iglesias
|
| 5:00 |
: Smells appropriate to me
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| 5:00 |
: Familia, Giles, Herrera, Treinen, etc.
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| 5:01 |
: Guys who aren’t elite and aren’t scrubs
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| 5:01 |
: britton for gausman a fair deal? or is the prospect of buying low on gausman actually selling britton too low?
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| 5:01 |
: Smells fine to me
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| 5:02 |
: You could opt to wait a little longer to see what Britton looks like
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| 5:03 |
: but if it goes sour, he’s just a cut then
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| 5:03 |
: What level of closer should I be targeting with Odubel? Same as the guys you mentioned for Castellanos? THanks!
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| 5:03 |
: A little lower, Doobie just doesn’t fuel categories
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| 5:03 |
: I’m in 2nd overall with solid pitching but 2nd to last in Wins. What can I do? My pitchers all play for good teams…. Carrasco Kershaw, Hendricks, McCullers Stripling Buehler
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| 5:03 |
: I run into this every year with at least one roster. Hope for regression. It’s difficult to manage the category successfully
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| 5:04 |
: When people ask your advice on a player e.g. Castellanos …
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| 5:04 |
: Indeed
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| 5:04 |
: Thoughts on Duvall? peripherals all look good, are you seeing a turnaround soon?
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| 5:04 |
: That’s the first I’ve heard of Duvall having good peripherals 🙂
|
| 5:05 |
: So yea, it looks like he should be batting .250/.330/.500 to me
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| 5:05 |
: Actual .177/.263/.387
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| 5:06 |
: I wouldn’t count on the 10% BB rate to remain – no change to plate discipline
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| 5:06 |
: So going forward, projection is .235/.290/.470
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| 5:06 |
: Which… sucks
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| 5:06 |
: 20 HR are nice I guess
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| 5:06 |
: Bonjorno. Who do you like better ROY
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| 5:06 |
: Mike Trout
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| 5:07 |
: Who do you like better rest of season: Bundy or Tanaka?
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| 5:07 |
: Tanaka
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| 5:07 |
: He’ll hurt the ERA a bit because the HR issue is real
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| 5:07 |
: Bundy may be HR prone too, a little less certain of that
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| 5:07 |
: But I do know the Orioles suck and the Yankees could give a 6.00 ERA pitcher 20 wins
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| 5:07 |
: when people ask your opinion on a player e.g Castellanos…what would you say are your percentage of being right or wrong on the advice you give?
|
| 5:08 |
: Well… it’s very situational
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| 5:08 |
: I try to reserve strong takes like my Castellanos opinion for situations in which I’m quite sure
|
| 5:08 |
: Probably 80% correct – I always advise diversifying the opinions you gather if you’re not doing the analysis yourself
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| 5:09 |
: Other times, I let it be known I’m making a guess
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| 5:09 |
: Given the frantic pace of these chats, I’m not doing much original analysis during them.
|
| 5:10 |
: I also try to answer questions in which I have enough info internalized to be helpful
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| 5:10 |
: For example, I get questions about Polanco every week, and I really don’t have anything useful to say
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| 5:10 |
: He could be a star some day. You’d expect to see that a little more obviously in the stat line by now
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| 5:10 |
: Is there a market inefficiency in fantasy fantasy? Can we bet on fantasy teams in fantasy leagues?
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| 5:11 |
: On this note, it’s time for me to go. Good game folks.
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| 5:11 |
: Godley: buy low, or oh no?
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| 5:11 |
: Sad face
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| 5:11 |
: Yates, Devenski, or Tepera ROS…..need saves
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| 5:11 |
: Tepera then
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| 5:11 |
: Muncy or Carpenter tonight for MI?
Brad: Carp – 60/40 preference. Either play is fine. |
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Darn just missed this chat. Quick trade question for anyone: 12 team 5×5 Ottoneu keeper. I’m in first place by 8 points and need steals and better pitching ratios. Looking at offering a $35 Carrasco, $7 Freddy Peralta, $3 Eddie Rosario for a $32 Trea Turner, $9 Seranthony and a $3 Corbin.
Does this actually make my team better? Is Rosario too valuable at that price? Is Carrasco a better bet than Seranthony and Corbin to boost my ratios?
I think I prefer the Turner side. If you drop Corbin for somebody less well-regarded, you might be able to hang on to Rosario. I obviously don’t know what kind of resources either of you have to work with.