Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 6/19/2018
We chatted. Here is the transcript which ends with some ROY picks. Enjoy.
4:01 |
: What are you doing with Jon Gray and Castillo in 12 team leagues? Benching or dropping? Thanks!
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4:01 |
: Playing matchups. Definitely not dropping. Gray is actually top 10 SP by FIP WAR
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4:01 |
: Oh, hello everyone
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4:02 |
: Greetings and such
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4:02 |
: Onward
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4:02 |
: Been offered Verlander for Ohtani in a keep forever h2h pts league. I’ve got a top contending team. I love Ohtani and am anguishing over this. Talk to me.
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4:03 |
: Wow that’s a tough position. They say flags fly forever, so I guess it comes down to the points. How much does Verlander help you contend compared with a reasonable estimate for future Ohtani
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4:03 |
: My guess is you can ask more
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4:03 |
: When looking for ROS values for trades, add/drops, whatever . . . what projection system should I be using? I can’t figure them out. Steamer RoS? Steamer Update? Zips Update? How do they work? I’m looking for a definitive system to use, but how can I trust a system (Steamer RoS) that has Vlad Guerrero ranked over Bregman when Vlad hasn’t even had a major league AB yet? Please set me straight.
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4:04 |
: Honestly, I think you want to ask this of Jeff Zimmerman. I’m not this closely married to projections
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4:04 |
: I only look at them out of curiosity after I do my own analysis.
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4:04 |
: Ryon Healy or Candelario ROS? OPS League
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4:05 |
: Healy by a hair? Same asset class. The OPS really helps Healy
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4:05 |
: Be prepared for streakiness
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4:05 |
: I recently traded Hoskins, Murphy, and Austin Riley for Bryant and Kemp in a keep forever 10 MLB guys per year. It’s a 12 tm h2h with OPS and TB. How did I do?
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4:05 |
: I like this for you
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4:05 |
: And no, that’s not me complementing my own trade
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4:06 |
: Bryant is clearly the top player in the deal. It’s always good to aggregate in these shallow keep X formats
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4:06 |
: 14 team points: You get 5 pts for saves and 3 for holds. Should I trade Brandon Morrow for Max Muncy? 2B needs a lil help
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4:06 |
: Your Muncy can 2b?
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4:07 |
: Smells fair to me. There’s sufficient risk/reward on both sides for either owner to come out on top.
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4:07 |
: Will anybody be calculating Arsenal Scores since Eno left??
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4:08 |
: I can pose the question to our slack. I believe that was a joint project with Jeff Z
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4:08 |
Both might be short on playing time, but both bring intriguing pop and speed combos. I generally fall to the youth in these situations, but feel power upside of Braun is higher here. |
4:08 |
: I think I’d do Braun too
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4:08 |
: Seems like they’ll stop playing him at 1B at least
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4:09 |
: need to make some moves on the margins… dump cron for john hicks?
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4:09 |
: Can play matchups if you want, but if I’m holding one of them, it’s Cron
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4:09 |
: Sitting 5 back of 1st in 12tm roto dynasty. Team seemed over its head all season. Would you still make a push or start trying to get better guys for the future? Have guys like Morton, Maeda, Albies, etc. that have to started to fade.
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4:10 |
: In this position, I usually “retool.” By which I announce a rebuild then do what I can to trade old players for young stars without sacrificing too much present value
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4:11 |
: I did this successfully in my 20 team industry dynasty last year
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4:11 |
: Turned Donaldson, Miggy, Odubel, and a bunch of Archer/Quintana/closers type pitchers into Betts and Rizzo. Went from 9th to 3rd (top 5 paid).
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4:12 |
: People tend to be a little more open handed if they think you’re throwing in the towel
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4:12 |
: Was offered Hoskins and Yelich for Harper in a 12 team h2h keeper league. Would you make the trade?
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4:12 |
: No
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4:12 |
: If it’s a keeper, best player is a huge deal
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4:12 |
: Harper is easily the best in that offer
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4:12 |
: Luke Weaver has been super *meh* this season. Any reason to remain optimistic, or is this who he is now?
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4:13 |
: Every pitcher can break out
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4:13 |
: Weaver has the raw tools to be given every chance imaginable
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4:13 |
: If I had to draft a list of presently bad pitchers who may one day be good, Weaver would be near the top of it
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4:14 |
: Taillon was pretty similar to Weaver until a few starts ago when he started whipping lethal sliders
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4:14 |
: As an outsider, the best I can suggest is to treat pitchers like Weaver as an asset class. Try to find the ones that find a new trick before they’re widely adopted
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4:15 |
: Archie Bradley picked up the save last night. % chance he ends up as the closer?
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4:15 |
: Low
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4:15 |
: This is a management group that had the patience to stick with Fernando Rodney for a whole season
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4:15 |
: I think they’ll give Box more chances. And barring that, I bet Hirano jumps in line first.
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4:16 |
: How are you playing matchups with J. Gray? He’s been lit up for his last 7 starts against good teams and not-so-good teams, at home and away.
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4:16 |
: Yea, if I had any shares, I would be eating bad ratios.
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4:16 |
: Good pitchers can give you bad ratios sometimes. It sucks
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4:16 |
: All you can do is stick with the process of using good pitchers with good matchups
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4:17 |
: The smart move would be to make Bradley the every day closer though, right?
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4:17 |
: Eh, I don’t think it’s necessary
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4:17 |
: With that said about “retooling” would you offer Morton and Cain for Conforto and Forrest Whitley? Need more? 12tm roto dynasty.
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4:18 |
: That is the sort of trade I’d look for – perhaps with a better second piece than Whitley as a starting point. Might still settle for what you proposed, but it’s wise to work in some wiggle room with the initial offer
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4:18 |
: Is Godley worth holding in a 12 team? Too many baserunners for me….
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4:18 |
: Godley should be owned, but not necessarily by you
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4:19 |
: If a better player is on the waiver wire, feel free to make that trade
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4:19 |
: Godley probably belongs on a bottom feeder team looking to strike gold
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4:19 |
: Franchy Cordero worth waiting for in an NL-only, or is the Padres outfield too jammed up?
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4:19 |
: Way too clogged
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4:19 |
: Would you drop R. Zimmerman in a 14 team dynasty points league for Ottavino? Thanks!
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4:20 |
: Depends on the points, but I think I might
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4:20 |
: How is Ottavino unowned?
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4:20 |
: Simmons vs Torres ROS – how large of a difference is there in a points league?
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4:20 |
: Again, it really depends on your specific scoring system.
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4:21 |
: For the record, there are about 5 versions of “standard” when it comes to points. I play the least standard of those (FGpts). It’s the only one I can speak authoritatively on. The rest I can just offer a gut impression – your gut is likely better than mine
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4:22 |
: I was offered Trout ($75) for arenado ($60) and Yelich ($36). keep 8, on base percentage rather than average. those dollar values represent keeper price. yay or nay? Im currently second in the league and look to be headed to playoffs
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4:22 |
: So in a $260 budget league, none of these are keepers
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4:22 |
: Unless there’s a big group of studs kept for $1 driving inflation
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4:23 |
: So we’re basically asking if I’d do Arenado/Yelich for Trout. Answer is yes, unless your backup 3B is a joke
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4:23 |
: Need to drop two players to activate Belt and Andrus. Who would you pick: Smoak, T. Anderson, M. Gonzales, Rodon, L. Castillo, Pivetta, Seranthony, Boxberger
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4:23 |
: Anderson and Gonzales
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4:23 |
: Although roster composition obviously matters
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4:23 |
: Franchy or Bader ROS?
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4:23 |
: Woof
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4:24 |
: Can I opt out for Dietrich?
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4:24 |
: Or any number of other temporary patches
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4:24 |
: Bader for now, then move on once Dex starts playing again
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4:25 |
: Would you add Kyle Gibson over Luis Castillo in 10 team league or shoot for upside?
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4:25 |
: upside?
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4:25 |
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4:25 |
: Probably, yes
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4:25 |
: Are you buying Conforto’s recent adjustments/gains (as reported by me)?
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4:26 |
: I’m mostly buying he rushed back and has consistently gained strength. He’s been fine for like 45 days now
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4:26 |
: At some point, he’ll actually turn hot, but fine is acceptable for now
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4:26 |
: For the guy asking about which projection to use for RoS player evaluations, use Depth Charts so you’re not married to either Steamer or ZiPS and you get the bonus of human determined playing time allocations (which have more information about team and depth situations)
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4:26 |
: Domingo German intrigues me, lot of K upside and the xFIP gives me reason for optimism. Thoughts?
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4:27 |
: He’s seemingly homer prone and that park…
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4:27 |
: The homer issues kinda add up with his stuff too
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4:27 |
: Is Rich Hill startable tonight?
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4:27 |
: No
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4:28 |
: Was so bad before the injury. I assume the wind is blowing out. Game over
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4:28 |
: If the wind is blowing in, can use if you’re desperate.
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4:28 |
: Who would you cut between Greg Bird and Kyle Seager? Seager obviously more polished but bird has higher upside
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4:28 |
: If I’m in a position to cut one of those two players, my team is really damned good
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4:29 |
: So I’d dump Bird and lament later when he finally figures out how to hit
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4:29 |
: I should be asking for the world if someone wants my $1 Soto or $2 Acuna in FGPoints Ottoneu right?
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4:29 |
: Oh yes.
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4:29 |
: Had an owner suggest Rizzo for $4 Soto+ “a small piece” earlier.
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4:30 |
: I gave him a lol in response
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4:30 |
: $48 Rizzo and my roster has Goldy/Smoak/Dozier/Cesar/Gennett/Andrus/Torres clogging 1B/UTIL/2B/MI
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4:31 |
: Rizzo is obviously an upgrade over some of those guys, but it’s a small upgrade.
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4:31 |
: I’ll brb folks, the dog says he wants some attention.
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4:31 |
: Backup 3B is Devers (cheap to keep) or Muncy. Thank you again
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4:32 |
: Seems doable then. Muncy is in monster mode. Devers will figure it out eventually.
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4:34 |
: ok, dog is sorted
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4:35 |
: he prefers to be observed while eating
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4:35 |
: weirdo
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4:35 |
: How does Domingo Santana go from a top 30 player to waiver fodder is less than a year? trade the poor guys already!
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4:35 |
: If I find myself questioning starting Gallo even against RHP, does that mean I’m wrong? Or that it’s time to move on?
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4:37 |
: I’m back?
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4:37 |
: Yes
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4:37 |
: Sorry folks, technical difficulties
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4:38 |
: So… as I was trying to say, Gallo is basic HR Billy Hamilton
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4:38 |
: He can be tough to manage outside of OPS formats
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4:38 |
: Start Gonzalez vs the Yanks
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4:38 |
: Not me
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4:38 |
: I’m hands off for almost any visitor at Yankee Stadium
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4:39 |
: better keepers: Trout for $25 (next year only) or Lindor $16 for two years and Severino $10 for two years? man I like Trout.
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4:39 |
: Those are both really great positions from which to build
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4:39 |
: I think you should recognize your strengths as a fantasy player and go from there
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4:40 |
: Basically, if you’re even slightly good at find breakout value on the waiver wire/in draft, I’d go Trout
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4:40 |
: The Severino option is good for someone who always struggles to manage pitching stats
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4:40 |
: Any high upside SPs to target in a deal with Greinke straight up or with a truly small piece added in? (i.e. like an Alex Wood and Smoak for Greinke)
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4:40 |
: Taillon jumps to mind
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4:41 |
: Let me see if I can find a few more
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4:42 |
: Clevinger, Newcomb, Porcello, Gray, Morton, Stripling, Pivetta, Snell – I’m betting somebody will overpay for Greinke’s past
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4:42 |
: I don’t think you really need to reach for an underperformer
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4:43 |
: I Flipped E5 for Whit as a way to jump up from 6 pts in steals (1st in HR and RBI). I appreciated your advice last week about losing the trade but winning the league.
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4:43 |
: Hope it works!
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4:44 |
: I remember the time I traded prime Michael Brantley for Dee Gordon in an expert league. Hated the valuation on the trade but ended up winning the league by like 2 or 3 SB.
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4:45 |
: Didn’t have more points to gain in Brantley’s categories. Granted, I think that was an early August trade. Mid-June gives you some time to make up or lose ground
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4:45 |
: Should I drop Tyson Ross for Loaisiga in a 10 team H2H league where replacement level is pretty decent and I’m looking for upside? Worried that the bottom is going to fall out of Ross as soon as he’s traded to a better hitter’s park (90 mph fastball, 40% hard contact, only 9.8% swstr and 44% GB)
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4:45 |
: Perhaps take a quick peek around the league to see if there are similar players you could trade for first
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4:45 |
: Though maybe don’t announce you’re shopping Ross right before cutting him
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4:46 |
: That signals to owners that all they have to do is wait for your players to be free
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4:46 |
: I usually don’t advertise a guy as on the block unless I plan to keep him for awhile yet
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4:46 |
: What SP is a realistic/good return in a trade for Nomar Mazara? 12 team H2H 5 cat
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4:46 |
: McCullers-class?
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4:46 |
: Mazara’s name value should bring back a little more than his stat line is worth
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4:47 |
: Is Pivetta a streamer-only? His home-road splits are pretty bad.
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4:47 |
: No, he’s just inconsistent
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4:47 |
: I don’t buy it as a home/road thing. That’s all small sample
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4:47 |
: I mostly only believe in home/away splits for Coors pitchers and HR rates
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4:48 |
: Looking to replace Grichuk and/or Kepler in my OF, best stash? Buxton, Avisail, Souza?
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4:48 |
: Keep Kep as a platoon bat. If you need SB Buxton. If you need power, cast a wider net
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4:48 |
: If those players are available, that means there are even better temporary resources to stream
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4:49 |
: In my 5×5 H2H league, some managers have pretty much abandoned starting pitching and are using high K/9 relievers to punt QS but usually win K, ERA, WHIP. Think this is a legitimate strategy? (We have a minimum 25 IP per week)
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4:49 |
: If you’re the only team doing it, yes
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4:50 |
: If ANYBODY else is doing it, the tactic fails. Not only are you competing for elite relievers of which the supply is small for the reliable ones – you’re also splitting categories any time you face one another. And those categories are still vulnerable in vanilla matchups if just one of your guys has a melt down
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4:50 |
: Thoughts on Hou closer? Tepera or Rondon ros; 10 team AL, w, era, svs, ratio
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4:51 |
: You really can’t find a roster spot for both? Or a trade?
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4:51 |
: Those are top 125 assets in AL Only right now. I think Rondon basically has the job, but Giles usually gets it back eventually
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4:51 |
: Tepera, I think, might get traded as a cheaper alternative to a guy like Hand
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4:52 |
: In both cases, they’ll get saves now, maybe later, and possibly lose their jobs
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4:52 |
: Rondon has better ratio projections
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4:53 |
: Justin Wilson just gave up 2 runs in the 9th against mostly RHB. Morrow no where around. Any idea what’s going on with the Cubs pen?
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4:53 |
: Well they have a doubleheader so perhaps they’re trying to manage their resources carefully
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4:53 |
: Pivetta or Tanaka ROS?
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4:53 |
: I think my training is going to force me to pick Tanaka
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4:53 |
: As much as I think that’s a legit coin flip
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4:54 |
: Dee Gordon a good trade target for SBs? He hasn’t been running much lately and has been disappointing overall, but is probably due for a bounceback.
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4:54 |
: The best target
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4:54 |
: Aside from Trout/Betts
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4:54 |
With that kind of staff, should I be even looking for a SP or should I focus on a mid-tier bat? Need 2B or SS help (have Escobar at either position) and possibly OF help. |
4:55 |
: It’s always good to try to improve everything. Sometimes, finding an upgrade to a strength can help you solve a weakness later
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4:55 |
: Is Descalso a viable everyday 2B? He’s been surprisingly and consistently good, and plays almost every day.
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4:55 |
: If he plays, yes
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4:55 |
: Robles and Bird or Bellinger in a 14 team dynasty points league? Thank you!
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4:56 |
: As Robles basically hasn’t played this year, it’s very difficult to compare him to Bellinger. I think it’s safer to take the Bellinger side, but I could see being aggressive on Robles
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4:56 |
: Historically, betting against the prospect side of the deal is a winner
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4:57 |
: Who would you rather have ROS. Braun, Gardner, or Desmond (12 tm roto w OBP)?
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4:57 |
: Braun
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4:57 |
: Desmond is a guy I’m trying to buy though
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4:57 |
: I moved a little too late even though I had the info I needed in a timely manner
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4:57 |
: Just didn’t really believe he could recover
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4:57 |
: Musgrove got lit up by the stinking Reds his last time out. Are you holding any shares, or is he just a streamer in a 14t league?
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4:57 |
: I’ve got a 12 team share
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4:57 |
: one lonely share
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4:58 |
: Roster is bouncing between 1st and 2nd, but the pitching staff is Paxton+garbage
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4:58 |
: I think ideally, a Musgrove belongs on a bottom feeder roster
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4:58 |
: prefer eflin or pivetta keeper? same price
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4:58 |
: Pivetta
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4:58 |
: Is Nimmo a younger left handed version of AJ Pollock? Keep forever. I’m thinking between AJs age (30) and injury prone, Nimmo might be the better long term OF#3?
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4:59 |
: I’m not really buying this comp, but I can see preferring Nimmo at this point
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4:59 |
: Still waiting for the league to adjust to him
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4:59 |
: What is the appropriate response when someone offers Matt Koch or Seth Lugo for my keepable Eugenio Suarez in an NL only league?
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4:59 |
: Poor Suarez
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4:59 |
: Legit good fantasy player and has no value
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5:00 |
: Just say you aren’t taking offers for Suarez
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5:00 |
: In the unlikely event they fall in love, they’ll start sending real proposals
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5:01 |
: Been offered Kris Bryant, Strasburg, and Correa for my Vladito and Senzel in a H2H Keeper league. The players offered are basically rentals (you can only keep a player for three years maximum, and they’ve already been kept that long), and Vlad Jr. and Senzel are at the start of their keeper cycles. I’m on the fringe of contention after a few years of rebuilding a team I inherited–fifth place in a twelve-team league. Would you pull the trigger or hold?
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5:01 |
: This would be easier if it was a roto league
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5:01 |
: One thing you can try is evaluating the actual roto scores. Are you doing better or worse than the totals imply?
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5:02 |
: You have to feel like those three give you a largely upgraded chance to reach a money spot
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5:02 |
: Typically, H2H is too fluky for that to be true
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5:02 |
: Leonys or Josh Harrison in a 12 team roto? Thanks!
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5:02 |
: Harrison in most cases
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5:02 |
: Is Altuve for deGrom/Schwarbs a fair trade in dynasty?
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5:02 |
: I’m not a huge fan
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5:03 |
: Think you’re selling low on a top 5 player
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5:03 |
: Trade away Eaton for Folty? Fair offer?
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5:03 |
: A little light in my books. Have to be very bullish about Folty or bearish about Eaton for that to add up
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5:03 |
: Mookie Betts for Kershaw and Reddick? 12tm roto
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5:03 |
: Absolutely not
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5:04 |
: Thanks Brad; unique league, one FA per month. Fielding offers on JD Martinez; could use pitching help. Cole offer and a Morton offer on the table (with sweeteners). Has the sand run out on their respective magical interludes?
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5:04 |
: Although I still like both of them. I probably wouldn’t take Cole AND Morton for JDM
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5:04 |
: So those sweeteners better be agave-spiked
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5:04 |
: eflin or romero as a RP/SP?
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5:05 |
: Right now, Eflin. Future years, I’ll go back to Romero.
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5:05 |
: What % of your bench do you like dedicate to bench bats in a 12 tm H2H where pitchers are aggressively streamed and all the top relievers are scooped up? Say you have 7 bench spots.
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5:06 |
: 3-4 probably. But I’m an unusual H2H player. I put 70% of my draft budget into elite SP then try to scrounge cheap SP breakouts too
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5:06 |
: So I need more platoon work on the offensive side of things
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5:06 |
: Ketel marte or descalso from FA? I need a 2b. Which one should i target ROS?
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5:06 |
: Ketel
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5:06 |
: He’s playing well lately
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5:07 |
: About to cut Luke Weaver. Any reason to keep him over T.Ross, Fulmer, Montgomery, Pivetta?
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5:07 |
: No. Pivetta and Fulmer would be my targets
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5:07 |
: Nimmo over Gardner ROS?
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5:07 |
: Yes. Definitely
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5:07 |
Romo, Hughes, Gsellman, Ramos, O’Day |
5:07 |
: Assuming that’s Edubray and not injured AJ
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5:08 |
: Hughes is the easiest cut
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5:08 |
: O’Day may be next easiest
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5:08 |
: Romo kinda sucks but he’s still the most CL pitcher in TB
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5:08 |
: Gsellman seems stuck behind a couple guys
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5:09 |
: Ramos is due for a thrashing of regression
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5:09 |
: Probably keep Romo, Ramos, Gsellman in that order as of today
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5:09 |
: Time to start wrapping up
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5:09 |
: Does Buxton have 20 SB in him ROS?
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5:09 |
: They’re in him, but 12 is a more reasonable projection
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5:10 |
: What are your thoughts on Bradley Zimmer and Nick Williams in dynasty?
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5:10 |
: Love Zimmer, a little cool on Williams
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5:10 |
: Do you like to use SIERRA?
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5:10 |
: I’ll look at it. Not really making any decisions based on it
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5:11 |
: But it’s a good smell test if you’re used to using FIP measures and see something smelly
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5:11 |
: Why are you trying to buy Ian Desmond? To my untrained eyes, his batted ball profile (high GB%, specifically) looks atrocious and he’s making the least contact of his career
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5:11 |
: Some statcast reports show a month-long improvement in hard hit and launch angles
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5:12 |
: Anyone with an opinion on ROY ?
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5:12 |
: Good one to end on… send your picks!
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5:12 |
: soto
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5:12 |
: Just Soto?
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5:13 |
: I guess everybody needed to go reference a leaderboard
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5:13 |
: Gleyber!
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5:13 |
: Acuna still has time to steal back the ROY thunder from Soto
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5:14 |
: Nimmo!
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5:14 |
: Does he qualify?
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5:14 |
: no
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5:14 |
: Albeeezy
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5:14 |
: Also doesn’t qualify
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5:15 |
: Walker B
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5:15 |
: RIP
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5:15 |
: I’ll add Hader and Seranthony from the pitcher side
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5:15 |
: NL = Acuna
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5:15 |
: Anderson?
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5:15 |
: Current rookie WAR leader among position players
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5:15 |
: Hader has the overall lead
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5:15 |
: for solid 10 days it was austin meadows
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5:15 |
: Gleyber
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5:15 |
: Prediction: Torres finishes with more ROY votes than Candelario, Candelario finishes with a higher wRC+ and WAR
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5:16 |
: Hader qualifies?
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5:16 |
: Yep and 2.1 WAR
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5:16 |
: Don’t sleep on Muncy
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5:16 |
: Not a rookie
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5:17 |
: Muncy and Nimmo are such perfect clones – they even both seem to be rookies even though they aren’t
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5:17 |
: Hader
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5:17 |
: Bartolo Colon
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5:17 |
: And on that note…gg folks
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5:17 |
: do you wager on lines/spreads? if so what is your one sentence of advice
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5:17 |
: Honestly?
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5:17 |
: Don’t do it.
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