Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 6/12/2018
by Brad Johnson
June 12, 2018
| 4:00 |
: In need of steals. Would you trade Correa for Turner?
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| 4:01 |
: Yea, classic swap
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| 4:01 |
: I’ve definitely won seasons trading a better player for Dee Gordon. Turner has better all-around production and similar stealing ability
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| 4:02 |
: With Soroka coming off the DL in a 12 tm, would you drop Kingham or Manaea?
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| 4:02 |
: I would
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| 4:02 |
: I think Soroka has a slightly more stable profile than them.
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| 4:02 |
: They’re similar assets though
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| 4:02 |
: Michael A. Taylor remains unowned in my 12 team mixed league. I have to pick him up, right?
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| 4:02 |
: Well… With Eaton back and Soto continuing to play like a top 40 hitter, I’m not sure there’s a role for him.
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| 4:03 |
: Is this the time to buy low on Ozzie Albies? Or are you concerned about his recent struggles?
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| 4:03 |
: This is the other shoe I was waiting for to drop all season. I don’t think you’ll get a “low” price yet
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| 4:03 |
: There are flaws in his approach, and we’re seeing what can happen with them
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| 4:03 |
: Andrus for Semien and Kelvin Herrera / Boxberger in a 12 team roto? If so, which closer would you rather own ROS? Thanks!
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| 4:04 |
: Well, that depends on the saves needs of you and your trade partner
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| 4:05 |
: Definitely prefer Andrus over Semien, but it’s not a guarantee Andrus will rebound from injury
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| 4:05 |
: Let’s back up a step
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| 4:05 |
: This applies to this trade and the Correa/Turner comment
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| 4:06 |
: We’re at the point of the season when roto points start to matter more than this soft concept of “value” we use early in the season.
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| 4:06 |
: I tend to approach the first couple months as building as strong a roster as I can and letting them accrue stats. Then I go into problem solving mode in June/July
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| 4:07 |
: So trades should be judged on the merits of the roto points they’ll deliver.
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| 4:08 |
: Ideally, use a sophisticated projection system to estimate league wide performance
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| 4:08 |
: Lacking that, just eyeball how many points you stand to gain and lose in best/worst case scenarios.
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| 4:08 |
: Hi Brad! What do you make of my performance thus far and how do you see me doing for the rest of the season?
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| 4:09 |
: The rest of the season is a shrug. I can’t say I think the skill set lends itself to continued success. However, his velocity is up, and he’s induced a tidy GB rate
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| 4:10 |
: I kinda think he needs better breaking stuff
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| 4:10 |
: Time to get off the Arrieta train? See who thinks he’s still an ace?
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| 4:10 |
: Yes. Might be too late.
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| 4:10 |
: Curious about Jose Miguel Fernandez. AL Only OBP: him or Brock Holt?
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| 4:10 |
: José Fernandez or Brown Anderson as bench stash in a 12 tm OPS league?
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| 4:10 |
: dunno about Brown Anderson 🙂
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| 4:11 |
: I assume that’s an ask about “Brian.” I would choose Anderson if so
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| 4:11 |
: As for Fernandez, decent lotto ticket as a fill in to Shohei
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| 4:11 |
: He’s 30 so it’s not like he needs to develop
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| 4:12 |
: He either hits or goes away. Might be a little like Yuli in that the power doesn’t play as much as you’d like
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| 4:13 |
: Made a lot of contact in the minors, but could be more of a Quad-A bat.
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| 4:13 |
: You on my bandwagon?!?
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| 4:13 |
: Oh yea
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| 4:13 |
: I one of the first pushing it
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| 4:13 |
: He’s a clone of Brandon Nimmo except with better power and less speed
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| 4:14 |
: and better positions
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| 4:14 |
: Who do you prefer the rest of the way this season? Carlos Rodon or Dylan Bundy
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| 4:14 |
: A little hard to judge Rodon on one outing. He looked pretty good though.
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| 4:15 |
: I’m going to say Rodon because Bundy has established home run problems and a lethal division
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| 4:15 |
: But I could be very wrong since Rodon is only one start back from a long DL stint
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| 4:16 |
: Your article on Ketel Marte back in December inspired me to grab him on the cheap to be the starting SS in my NL-Only league. So far, it’s been a disappointing season as he has really under performed the AVG projections. Despite the hard% going up by 10%, the BABIP is 40 points below his career norms. Has your evaluation on him changed since December? How do you see him ROS?
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| 4:16 |
: He was starting to show some life lately before a mini injury
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| 4:17 |
: So in the offseason, I can get locked into a “this is who he is” kind of mindset.
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| 4:17 |
: Marte has not been the same player he was last season. More ground balls, more hard contact, fewer liners, fewer swings out of the zone, more aggression in the zone
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| 4:18 |
: Overall, I think he’s improved slightly even though the results don’t bear it out
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| 4:18 |
: I think the humidor has hurt him perhaps the most on the team
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| 4:19 |
: And I wish he’d get under the ball a little more often
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| 4:19 |
: Lastly, he has the speed to steal bases, but he’s never shown the aptitude
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| 4:19 |
: So… still solid for NL Only purposes. I don’t think he needs to be owned in a 12 team mixed.
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| 4:20 |
: Have 0 bench bats in my 12 team h2h, but a very strong offense. Want to drop Gsellman for one of the following – who would you pick up? Bour, Polanco, Bauers, Adames, Manaea or Musgrove? Thank you!
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| 4:21 |
: I like Musgrove the most of those. But if you want a bat, Bour and Polanco are fine choices. Not confident the Rays keep their youngsters on the MLB roster.
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| 4:21 |
: But they’re also fine gambles. All in all, evaluate your needs and go with the guy who best fits them
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| 4:22 |
: I’ 2nd in steals because of Dee G + others that are decent (jose Ramirez/yelich/gardner. Should I move Dee now for a big HR hitter like Encarnacion? 3rd to last in HR and like 4th to last in OPS.)Or should I wait a while to get more? I fear i’ll lose SB ground if I move him now
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| 4:22 |
: That’s a tricky situation
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| 4:22 |
: You’re probably better off trying to move Yelich for a power bat
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| 4:22 |
: Do you prefer roto or head to head categories? Deep (20 team plus) leagues or 12 teamers?
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| 4:23 |
: I like a mix of 12 and 20 team. Prefer roto for both.
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| 4:23 |
: My offense has been struggling all season with a bunch of streaky hitters I can’t drop. 3B is a black hole – would you trade C Martinez and Inciarte for Bregman and Godley in a 14 team? I have Tanaka and Thor on DL, with OK depth behind them. Banking on RP and Fangraphs help to fake the pitching until they come back.
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| 4:23 |
: I like the trade for you
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| 4:24 |
: I’ve labelled Bregman the next Jose Ramirez
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| 4:24 |
: I just traded a lot more to get him in a weird 20 team dynasty (can’t roster players until their second season in the majors).
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| 4:26 |
: For those who are curious: trade was Jose Abreu, Michael Brantley, and Kelvin Herrera for Bregman, Alex Reyes (after all the injury news was out), and Koda Glover.
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| 4:27 |
: I just took over this team last winter. It was a mess plus Carlos Correa. Currently 20th place, but should contend next season.
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| 4:27 |
: What’s your take on Murphy’s activation? Strictly DH and then ease him back or would they not activate him if he wasn’t ready to play every day? Wondering if it’s worth dropping the recently hot Kinsler now…
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| 4:27 |
: You’ve got it, he’ll be DHing this week and easing back into 2B duties
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| 4:27 |
: They’ve been more than happy to go easy on him in the past
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| 4:27 |
: What does Murphy coming back do for Harper? Does this get him going?
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| 4:28 |
: I don’t think it does anything for Harper
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| 4:28 |
: except slightly more run production
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| 4:28 |
: how long of a leash do you give muncy in keepers (keep 7). very good plate discpline, breakout looks fairly legit, overperforming in power department. When he inevitably slumps, should he be cast off or hold for longer than normal period?
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| 4:28 |
: I think we’ll have to judge the shape of the slump
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| 4:28 |
: By that, does it look like pitchers have discovered an exploit. Does it look counter-able
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| 4:29 |
: Like with Rhys Hoskins, pitchers found a hole last year, he countered early this year. Then pitchers found another hole
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| 4:29 |
: And honestly, I don’t see an easy fix for him
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| 4:29 |
: Why bench Soto? Michael Taylor stealing bags is great and all, but Soto’s OPS is .972 and he’s got 11 walks to 11 Ks. Soto, Eaton, Harper EVERY DAY!
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| 4:29 |
: I agree. Can’t justify Soto in the majors at all if he’s getting benched
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| 4:30 |
: That said, I don’t see any reason to panic
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| 4:31 |
: With Murphy back, they’re pretty left-handed
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| 4:31 |
: Probably just wanted to balance out the order a little
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| 4:31 |
: max muncy or joc pederson RoS?
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| 4:31 |
: Muncy please
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| 4:31 |
: Jordan Hicks has raised the release point on his slider, adding about 2.5 mph in velocity. Locating the pitch better as well, and as a result the K’s are coming in droves.
Mixed-league relevant regardless of role? (Sidenote: Would love a write-up!) |
| 4:32 |
: Yea, he’s been mixed relevant all season. More Ks can’t hurt
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| 4:32 |
: 12 team H2H points league…i just traded blackmon/junis for g. cole/nimmo. needed some top end help at SP. grade the trade…? thanks.
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| 4:32 |
: Never love dealing an elite batter for a pitcher, but if you needed pitching, Cole is one of your best options.
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| 4:32 |
: 16 team league. Standard 5×5 categories. Blackmon and kinsler for altuve and Folty? Need pitching help
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| 4:33 |
: Easy yes. I love Blackmon. Altuve is better.
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| 4:33 |
: Kinsler is nothing
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| 4:33 |
: So you’re getting the best player in the deal and an above average pitcher for Blackmon
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| 4:33 |
: Folty or snell rest of season?
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| 4:33 |
: Folty
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| 4:34 |
: I like Snell more talent-wise, but have to consider quality of competition
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| 4:34 |
: Muncy or Teoscar rest of season?
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| 4:34 |
: ez Muncy
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| 4:34 |
: I’m not on the Teoscar bandwagon
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| 4:34 |
: I fully support the Blue Jays giving him a full season because what else do they have to put out there?
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| 4:35 |
: But I view him as a good fourth outfielder kind of like Aaron Altherr
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| 4:35 |
: Votto and Morton for Goldschmidt and Carrasco in 10 team roto?
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| 4:35 |
: Challenge trade!
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| 4:35 |
: I like the Votto side personally. Like 55/45.
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| 4:35 |
: i just dropped jed lowrie for matt carpenter in a 12 team H2H points league. smart move?
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| 4:35 |
: It’s fine
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| 4:35 |
: You’ve got some flex now
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| 4:36 |
: Sorry for second question, do you think Joe Jimenez is now good enough to be a real closer at some point this year and next
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| 4:37 |
: Seems like it to me
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| 4:37 |
: So the main thing to worry about is home runs. He’s allowed 2.6% HR/FB in part because he has a mutant high soft contact rate. As that regresses, the HR will go up and the ERA will settle somewhere above 3.00
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| 4:38 |
: Compared to Shane Greene, that plays
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| 4:38 |
: What are your thoughts on Eric Thames
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| 4:38 |
: Love him
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| 4:38 |
: I like that he’ll almost never play against a LH starter
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| 4:38 |
: because it’ll help keep him fresh, and he absolutely annihilates righties
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| 4:39 |
: Last year’s slumps seemed tied to fatigue
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| 4:39 |
: Alex Bregman the next Jose Ramirez? That would be fun. How long do I have to wait?
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| 4:40 |
: Perhaps you don’t? 39% hard contact, more walks than strikeouts, 4.8 percent SwStr%
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| 4:41 |
: Selecting the best end point for recent performance, he’s batting .279/.376/.557 over his last 141 PA with 7 HR.
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| 4:41 |
: SO many injuries…need to tap your sage-like wisdom: you like Brandon Crawford or Andrelton Simmons more ROS? You like Puig or Soto more ROS? Think Shark turns it around?
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| 4:41 |
: Simmons for sure
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| 4:42 |
: Assuming you can afford to wait for him to get healthy. As for Puig/Soto – I like Soto more, but I worry he’ll be demoted. Puig is the safer play if you have to commit. I’m not too hopeful about Shark, but I’d speculate if all it costs is a roster spot.
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| 4:42 |
: Anybody going to rank SP’s by ‘stuff’ anymore?
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| 4:42 |
: I don’t rank players, but I do almost exclusively use “stuff” to judge who I want. Not the most useful to you, but it works for me 🙂
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| 4:44 |
: Stay away from Justin Turner and his wrist?
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| 4:44 |
: Yea, unfortunately
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| 4:45 |
: Hey brad, I have plethora of quality outfielders (Blackmon, marte, Markakis, Teoscar, Nimmo, muncy and Eaton) who do you like rest of season and the ones you dislike and what pitcher would you aim for for the players you would trade?
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| 4:45 |
: I’d try to sell Marte, Markakis, and Teoscar
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| 4:45 |
: I think Markakis has already quietly regressed back to old Nick
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| 4:45 |
: Teoscar, as I mentioned earlier, I think is a good 4th OFer
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| 4:45 |
: Marte often has more name value than actual value
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| 4:46 |
: Also, I just love Blackmon and Eaton. Nimmo/Muncy are on most of my rosters too
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| 4:46 |
: So if you fail with those four, know that I’ve also failed!
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| 4:46 |
: Will Kris Byrant get to 30 HR this year? Where did the power go?
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| 4:46 |
: It’s possible. I keep seeing the wind blowing in at Wrigley
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| 4:47 |
: He’s definitely traded some power for contact
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| 4:47 |
: I like the switch, but still waiting on the crazy hot streak
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| 4:47 |
: feels inevitable
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| 4:47 |
: Probably the best time to buy
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| 4:49 |
: Sorry, I wandered off to make an offer for Bryant
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| 4:50 |
: I take it I should trust Inciarte over Taylor for steals ros if only because of playing time?
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| 4:50 |
: That’s tricky. Inciarte went wild early, but Taylor actually runs more often per PA over his career
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| 4:51 |
: I think the playing time does strongly favor Inciarte, but that could change at a moment’s notice
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| 4:51 |
: Corey Seager or Vlad Jr. in a 14 team dynasty points league (no negative for K’s)? Have Correa, Altuve, Dee, Andrus, and Tatis on the way at MIF… Thanks!
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| 4:51 |
: Without knowing the point systems, I’d lean Vlad. Points tend to be better to Seager than roto though
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| 4:52 |
: 15-Team AL only. Would you deal Bregman and Buxton for Vlad Jr. and Bauer (not competing this year, Ohtani and Archer are keeper SPs)
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| 4:52 |
: I would not make that trade
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| 4:53 |
: Although I suppose the shape of your roster matters
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| 4:53 |
: If Buxton doesn’t have a place to play, then it makes the deal more attractive. I figure his steals will be quite valuable so long as it’s roto and not H2H where his streaks render him difficult to use
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| 4:54 |
: Gurriel or Lamb at CI? 12 team 5×5 roto OBP
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| 4:54 |
: Lamb
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| 4:54 |
: In need of HR/RBI, willing to sell Paxton to get it. Offered Jose Martinez + Maeda. That fine?
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| 4:54 |
: Not the most direct path to HR
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| 4:54 |
: A cruz or EE would be better
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| 4:54 |
: Seems like a can-do swap based on your needs though
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| 4:55 |
: Dropped Mancini for muncy for 5th OF spot…smart move?
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| 4:55 |
: yes
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| 4:55 |
: Loaisiga starting for NYY this week straight outta high-A. A Fringe Fiver, but maybe too much fringe?
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| 4:55 |
: Too fringe for me. I looked at him in my 20 team, keep 28, roster 45 league.
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| 4:55 |
: We roster 15-year-olds
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| 4:55 |
: I decided to pass
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| 4:55 |
: You really think Teoscar loses playing time to Grichuk?
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| 4:56 |
: I did not say that. I think Teoscar plays pretty much daily. At least this year. I just think the skill set screams 4th OFer
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| 4:56 |
: barring improvement
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| 4:56 |
: Is markakis a top 20 outfielder rest of season?
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| 4:56 |
: No
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| 4:56 |
: Not close
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| 4:56 |
: People are saying that Votto’s power outage is a result of his back, but the xSLG suggests otherwise. Is he that same 30 HR/season guy going forward, this 15 HR pace iteration, or somewhere in between?
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| 4:56 |
: Between
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| 4:56 |
: He’s aging
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| 4:57 |
: The last few seasons, he’s discovered fixes to keep the numbers afloat
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| 4:57 |
: Eventually, he’s going to run out. Best case, he turns into Joe Mauer
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| 4:57 |
: Worst case, he stops hitting with several years left on his contract
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| 4:57 |
: In a keeper league what kind of SP would you look to get in return for C. Seager?
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| 4:57 |
: Something premium
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| 4:58 |
: Maybe with risk like Paxton
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| 4:58 |
: Realistic targets for trading C. Seager in a keeper league? Looking at Bauer, McCullers, Snell, Nola
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| 4:58 |
: Those targets work for me
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| 4:58 |
: Touki or Dylan Cease?
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| 4:58 |
: I ignored this the first time it was asked because it seemed so random
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| 4:59 |
: Cease seems to have the brighter future to me, Touki could reach the majors a full season sooner
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| 4:59 |
: But why are these the two guys you’re looking at?
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| 4:59 |
: Find some hitting prospects instead
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| 5:00 |
: i’m about to start a rebuild. been offered yordan, baez, and 17th pick in 1st rd rookie draft for cody allen/posey. decent, or hold out for bichette instead of one of the other pieces?
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| 5:00 |
: If the guy has Bichette, push for him
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| 5:00 |
: do you think nimmo is for real? glad to see mets saying he’ll remain a full timer even with cespedes eventually back…
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| 5:00 |
: More or less, some regression due, but should remain the best hitter on the team
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| 5:01 |
: All things equal, who’s the better player for a H2H, Categories, Dynasty League: Brandon Nimmo – or – Rhys Hoskins? (Note: I’m competitive this year)
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| 5:01 |
: Ugh, that’s tough for me because I’m a second adopter of Nimmo (Eno gets first adopter credit)
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| 5:02 |
: But I think I still have to bet on Hoskins figuring it out
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| 5:02 |
: That’s good and all about bregman, but that’s a far cry from JoRams numbers
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| 5:02 |
: The numbers I cited were pretty much exact replicas of JoRam. Ball isn’t flying out of the park, but it very well could. All the peripherals I look for are in place.
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| 5:03 |
: home runs are the only area in which Bregman is substantially different
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| 5:03 |
: What do you think of B Zimmer long term? Is he somebody you would buy in a dynasty league?
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| 5:03 |
: Yes
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| 5:03 |
: Easy buy for me
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| 5:03 |
: I always figured he’d need 2+ years to adjust to the majors
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| 5:03 |
: Paxton + haniger for trout or Harper?
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| 5:03 |
: Yes
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| 5:03 |
: Anything for Trout
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| 5:03 |
: Traded Markakis and Newcomb for Dozier — did i do ok?
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| 5:03 |
: That’s fine
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| 5:04 |
: I routinely make a couple bets on a slumping Dozier sometime in June
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| 5:04 |
: Has paid handsomely every year
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| 5:04 |
: eventually, it won’t
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| 5:04 |
: How do you arrange a 3 team trade in ottoneu?
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| 5:05 |
: Well, since it’s not supported you probably need to announce the trade on the message board
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| 5:05 |
: then swap the parts/dollars accordingly
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| 5:05 |
: and if somebody fucks around, you then have the commish undo the deal
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| 5:05 |
: It’s about time for me to wrap this up
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| 5:06 |
: What happened to Migguel Cabrera’s power?
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| 5:06 |
: He got old
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| 5:06 |
: It sucks
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| 5:06 |
: Traded Gleyber for Rendon couple weeks ago. Good sell high or is Glyeber’s power real?
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| 5:06 |
: I like that swap for you
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| 5:06 |
: What to do with Jon Gray in a dynasty? On my rebuilding teams I’m sitting tight, but my win-now teams I’m considering dropping for Lugo or Rodon.
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| 5:06 |
: Well rodon should be rostered in all dynasties
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| 5:07 |
: Not sure how to compare him to Gray
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| 5:07 |
: Again, he’s only made the one start
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| 5:07 |
: Date when Melancon usurps Strickland? Or not this season?
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| 5:07 |
: A couple weeks tops?
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| 5:07 |
: Tomorrow?
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| 5:07 |
: I’m shocked it wasn’t a week ago
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| 5:07 |
: NL only keep forever…team is not competitive this year. Trade Bellinger for Goldschmidt?
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| 5:07 |
: No
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| 5:08 |
: Do not trade Bellinger in a keep forever
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| 5:08 |
: What to do with Juan Soto????
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| 5:08 |
: Hold
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| 5:09 |
: If you’d rather have something than nothing, can try to trade. Everybody knows he might get caught in a roster crunch though
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| 5:09 |
: There’s a lot more profit to be made if you wait
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| 5:09 |
: And on that note, have a good afternoon!
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| 5:10 |
:
Should there have been polls
yes (50.0% | 1 vote)
yes (50.0% | 1 vote)
Total Votes: 2
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| 5:10 |
: I forgot to do a poll. Oh well.
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| 5:10 |
: Justin Turner or Greg Bird ROS
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| 5:10 |
: ugh
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| 5:10 |
: Turner
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| 5:10 |
: I guess
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| 5:10 |
: Rosario or Mazara ROS, OBP league
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| 5:10 |
: EZ Rosario
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| 5:10 |
: How legit is Buehler? Should we be expecting low 3’s-under 3 on his ERA moving forward (this year/future)? Or more like mid+ 3’s? Right now, he’s playing like a studly stud
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| 5:10 |
: 17
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You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
How do you get into such competitive dynasty leagues? I’m in a 12 tm fantrax dynasty league rn and lots of random guys like dean kiekhefer and Kyle zimmer are owned, so me and 4 or 5 other teams can just pick and choose which top 100 prospects we want. Not as interesting as I’d like…
Well, I do this professionally. I probably turn down a good 50 league offers a year. It’s not too hard to cherry pick the best ones. The hard part is to not take on too many (which I’ve done this year).
Honestly, I don’t have good advice except to try networking with people on this site. Maybe reddit?