Brad Johnson Baseball Chat – 5/30/2017

Brad Johnson: Hey folks, you have me until my tires are done rotating

Brad Johnson:

Brad Johnson: I bet throwing the helmet adds 5 games to whatever it would have been

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: DJ LeMahieu or Jose Ramirez at second base?

Brad Johnson: Easily Ramirez

Brad: When do you think you will get invited into labr or tout wars?

Brad Johnson: I won’t. I never put myself on either wait list. Gotta do that when you enter the industry if you want in.

Brad Johnson: There have been some rumblings about forming a new industry league

Brad Johnson: Justin Mason wants it to be NFBC style so that almost everybody can participate

dee’s nuts: Start Berrios today?

Brad Johnson: Yes.

Justin: Can you give us some examples of players you would trade straight-up for Trout in a redraft league?

Brad Johnson: Hmm, that’s a tough one. Probably people like Justin Upton or Michael Brantley

Brad Johnson: Core performers but not stars

Brad Johnson: Remember, we’re 1/3rd of the way into the season and Trout’s going to miss most of the next third

Nelson: Do you liek Kintzler or Doolittle more ROS? would you trade Bradley Zimmer for either in a keeper if you need saves?

Brad Johnson: Well, I like Doolittle a lot more as a reliever… when healthy

Brad Johnson: has to be Kintzler though. I would not trade Zimmer unless it’s a very shallow keeper

Mr. Nor’easter: I just lost Duffy to the DL and was able to add Zach Davies. My 12-team league allows nine SPs on each roster, so that’s more than 100 SPs gone … I’m sort of optimistic about the Brewers, and Davies is pitching better of late (though still few Ks). Is there some young starter flying under the radar who I might be overlooking?

Brad Johnson: Brad Peacock, Tyler Anderson, Zack Godley are the must-get ones if available

Brad Johnson: probably won’t be

Brad Johnson: Maybe Dinelson Lamet of Miguel Almonte

Brad Johnson: I’d stick with Davies over them

RocketRockies: Rockies are at 63.4% chance of the playoffs, when was the last time Fangraphs had them projected to have a better chance of making than missing?

Brad Johnson: No idea, but I was scoffed at for picking them to win the division. I also picked the Phillies for a Wild Card so there’s some merit to the scoffing

Nelson: you dont think he missed with the helmet on purpose?

Brad Johnson: Absolutely not. Watch the throw, it slipped out a bit early but the follow through was right at Strickland.

Brad Johnson: I mean, maybe he realized what he was doing and let go too early on purpose

Brad Johnson: but at some point, there was intent to peg a guy with a helmet

Baryolo Cologne: Thoughts on starting Tyler Anderson and Shark in a IP/QS league tonight?

Brad Johnson: I’m leaning towards using the pair in DFS tonight. And I’m generally more aggressive in normal leagues where I can use RP to fix mistakes

Josh: Anything worrisome in Matt Carpenter’s slow start?

Brad Johnson: Injuries?

Brad Johnson: That’s all I’m worried about

Bruce: Is Adam Frazier Dj Lemahieu without Coors?

Brad Johnson: I’ve said it early and often since last year. Profile is remarkably similar, right down to the eagerness to steal despite an inability to do so

Pie: How would you treat Gleyber Torres in a 12 team keep 5? Is he a must-pick up at this point, or is it still too soon?

Brad Johnson: In a vanilla keep 5, there’s almost no way you’re keeping him. If there’s also a cost attached, maybe he has fringe value

the who?: maikel franco droppable in 12 teamers or not yet?

Brad Johnson: with CI, no

Brad Johnson: without CI, yes

Wes: Think this is Evan Gattis’ life in 2017? 3-4 starts a week?

Brad Johnson: This was always going to be a problem once the Astros got Brian McCann

Brad Johnson: I think they thought he’d be tradeable, but they clearly misread the market

Barb Lahey: you buy this domingo santana mini-breakout? Any chance he can be .280 30HR type OF in the near future?

Brad Johnson: I buy him as a poor man’s Marcell Ozuna

Ninja Black Sock: Who would you prefer Rich Hill or Robbie Ray?

Brad Johnson: I think probably Ray for health reasons

Brad Johnson: the blisters feel fluky, but Hill’s also an old guy

JGB: 5×5 Head-Head Ros – Alonso, Bour, Morales, Belt – Pick 2 and Benintendi, Broxton, Frazier, – Pick 2

Brad Johnson: Alonso + uh… what do you need?

Brad Johnson: Morales probably hits the most HR, Belt OBPs well, Bour is somewhere in between

Brad Johnson: Benintendi and Brox for the OFers

Heathcliff Slocumb: What would be a reasonable expectation for Austin Meadows if/when he gets the call?

Manny Being Manny: Any idea when, if at all, will the Mets bring up Rosario?

Brad Johnson: So here’s the thing about prospect. A reasonable expectation is always going to be something boring like .245/.310/.390 for Meadows

Brad Johnson: Expect them to be bad because that’s what usually happens

Brad Johnson: even Trout struggled in his first taste

Brad Johnson: it’s still worth trying to catch lightning in a bottle though

Brad Johnson: see Hunter Renfroe last year

Brad Johnson: if the scouting report is off, prospects can feast

Los: Am I crazy to trade Mookie for Trout in a H2H league where I know I will make the playoffs. If it makes any difference, I have won 3 times in the last 5 years and finished 2nd the other two times.

Brad Johnson: You should get a little more than just Trout. Even if it’s just a reliever upgrade.

Brett: Does Addison Reed close for the Mets come August 1st? Was offered a trade, can’t tell if the Mets are sellers at the deadline.

Brad Johnson: It’s a risk. I think he’ll still be entrenched.

Heathcliff Slocumb: Who is the next man up in the Mets pen? Reed has been SHAKY lately.

Brad Johnson: the game results haven’t been positive, but Reed’s pitching really well

Rake: Who’s more valuable: Devenski or a fifth pitcher (like top 60)?

Brad Johnson: Devenski

Moltar: Whoa crazy morning chat! I am looking to trade for a 3B, do you prefer Bregman or Villar ROS? Points league, so power/speed doesn’t much matter, just overall production.

Brad Johnson: Villar

Quintana: Would you start me tonight against Boston. QS league H2H

Brad Johnson: Depends on your matchup

Brad Johnson: if you don’t need the start, sit him

Bobby: Do you think the nats still go after a closer? Or a set up type arm with the way glover has been going

Brad Johnson: I think they’ll get Hand and use him as setup.

Thomas: So, am I crazy to love Godley in a 10-teamer?

Brad Johnson: Love is a strong word

Brad Johnson: he’s rosterable

Zach Davies’ Dad: I’m having a fight with Kyle Hendricks’ Dad about how my son will be better than his son. Tell me I’m right?? Should I start my boy against the Mets tonight so he can show up Kyle’s subpar performance yesterday?

Brad Johnson: Sorry, I’m taking Greg Maddux every day of the week

Brad Johnson: err, I mean Kyle Hendricks

Ryan: I keep waiting for Odubel Herrera to turn things around – he can’t be this bad, right? – but now Kendrick is back and you’d think Herrera starts losing at bats. Is it time to let him go in 12 team leagues?

Brad Johnson: It depends. He’s pressing at the plate. I think a short stint in the minors could be very beneficial. For Franco too.

Brad Johnson: It might be one of those cases where you’re better off making a move even though you’ll grumble about it being a mistake later

HappyFunBall: Do you believe in Price’s health? What level OF would you trade to acquire him if you do? I’ve offered Upton or Cain, been asked for Conforto (dynasty league)

Brad Johnson: Is there a reason you want to acquire the decline years of Price?

Brad Johnson: Just wait 60 days and trade a low-end core for him

Radcliffe: Drop Yadier Molina for one of the following? OBP, not AVG Cervelli, Vogt, Wieters, D’arnaud, Castillo

Brad Johnson: Wieters or Castillo

MITexan: Does Dickerson go back to being the guy he was in Colorado or is his current output a fluke?

Brad Johnson: I think he’s back to being a boss

Brad Johnson: minus Coors Field inflation

Joey: Do you have any thoughts on Scott Kingery for a dynasty format? 10-team 25 man roster worthy?

Brad Johnson: That’s a tad shallow

Brad Johnson: nice to see the power coming together, but there are still flaws in the profile – especially defensively

Michelle: What the heck am I supposed to do with Joc Pederson in at deep 14-team mixter with 45 man rosters? He is killing me!

Brad Johnson: Just have to sit on it in a format that deep

Brad Johnson: Colby Rasmus is like 2% owned if you want a patch

NowWatchMeYuuu: What kind of start would Lamet have to have tonight to make him rosterable in 12 team leagues?

Brad Johnson: 6 IP, 6+ K, no runs?

Brad Johnson: The thing is, he’s a funky guy. The profile sometimes does well over an initial handful of starts before hitters figure out how to pick up the ball

Carlos: Does being in 1st place in a head-to-head categories league and having that cushion make you more willing to go trade for Trout? Would you trade Rendon or Lamb for Trout if I have a couple other decent corner infielders?

Brad Johnson: Absolutely would trade Rendon. Not Lamb

marc: Buxton or Broxton?

Brad Johnson: Broxton, easy

Brad Johnson: I’m not a Buxton fan boy. Best case scenario is his defense gives him a chance to pull a JBJ

Cw : I need a catcher both Grandal and Gomes are FA which one is the better pickup?

Brad Johnson: Grandal is a top 4 catcher

Joey: Has Verlander become a streamer in 10-team leagues or would you recommend continued patience?

Brad Johnson: Patience

Brad Johnson: though most pitchers CAN be streamers in such a shallow format

Joey: Aaron Hicks or Aaron Altherr? Is it close?

Brad Johnson: I prefer Altherr’s cleaner path to playing time. Also, I find myself baffled by Hicks. I need to re-check something

Brad Johnson: Yea, so Hicks still has low hard contact and high soft contact

Brad Johnson: the walks are weird, but we’ve seen a few similar spikes in recent seasons. Odubel Herrera last April for example

John: I was offered Carlos Santana for Ryon Healy in an AL roto. I already have 3 Indian hitters. Which side do you take?

Brad Johnson: Any chance it’s an OBP league?

Brad Johnson: I might pass on the unnecessary challenge trade. Santana probably does offer more run production with comparable power and a lower average

MITexan: Is Bregman rosterable in 10 team mixed keeper league? He’s available for free on waiver wire. 3B is just soooo deep this year

Brad Johnson: Depends on the keeper depth and cost

Brad Johnson: I do still believe in him

Brad Johnson: but 2017 could remain boring

Nick J.: Do you think altherr and schebler can sustain their current pace and be startable OFs for the remainder of the season? Any underlying concerns with either? Thanks so much!

Brad Johnson: I think they’ll remain startable

Brad Johnson: they’re absolutely regress from their current paces

Brad Johnson: I mean, Schebler’s en route to 50 HR or thereabouts

Thomas: So, Godley or Maeda ROS?

Brad Johnson: Every projection system will say Maeda. I’m betting Godley

Matt Shoemaker: Why am I so bad? Is the split not splitting? Control issues?

Brad Johnson: Splitters are notoriously difficult pitches

Brad Johnson: And Shoemaker has lost his feel for the pitch in the past. Probably the same right now

Larry : Why when people write formal letters do they spell out one (1) number then put it in brackets. Is the spelling out not enough?

The Kyd: Do you think Knebel holds closer role ROS? I’m sitting fat with closers but am leery of fallout after deadline. When would be an appropriate time to pick up Rivero?

Brad Johnson: Yes, I do

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Do you make an effort not to have more than two or three guys from the same lineup on a fantasy roster? Matt Wieters was just dropped in my league and I see him as a small enough upgrade over Jett Bandy in an OBP league, even though I already have two core Nats.

Brad Johnson: I don’t go out of my way. Owning too many from one team is like stacking. You really need them to perform

Brad Johnson: That said, I have a first place ottoneu roster with 7 Phillies

Brad Johnson: and Mike Trout 🙁

Soup Dawg: Morton’s Lat strain seems ominous. Has he demonstrated enough to hold on in 14 team points format? Karns Cotton TRoss Rodon Nelson and Hahn are available.

Brad Johnson: For now, until we learn more

Moltar: I know Scioscia’s unpredictable, but Norris deserves to stay in the closer role, right?

Brad Johnson: Yes. But who the hell knows

Jumbotron: How do you feel about Dahl when he returns? Everyone says playing time is the issue but I just can’t understand why the Rockies wouldn’t want to get him ABs…

Brad Johnson: Dahl has almost no experience in the upper minors. Rather than juggling a cramped roster, I’d option him to Triple-A for 150 PA or until needed

Brad Johnson: So that return date could be in August

Larry : What tier SP could I trade a cheap Dahl for in a keeper?

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t bother. The kind of guy you can get probably isn’t worth paying for

Brad Johnson: could try an Alex Wood or James Paxton just to see if the owners are edgy about health

Nelson: Is Grandal is a top 4 C, where would you put Bandy?

Brad Johnson: uh, top 20?

Brad Johnson: maybe top 15?

Brad Johnson: They’re not comparable

Chris Owings: Am I a viable option in a 10 team at either SS or OF moving forward?

Brad Johnson: Ideally, you’re a bench guy

Brad Johnson: should be rostered though

Mrs. Roger. Dorn.: Are you ok with streaming the catcher position or are you in the ‘pick one guy and stick with him’ camp? Hedges, Avila, Tom Murphy and the 2 Brew Crew are available

Brad Johnson: I’d stream in that scenario

Brad Johnson: successfully predicting which Brewer starts tomorrow is impossible

Brad Johnson: I’ve been trying and failing all year in my Streaming Wars column

Villar: Am I overrated, and will I be this terrible for the rest of the year?

Brad Johnson: It’s either going to get better or benchier

Moltar: Hitting is deep in my points league’s waiver wire, pitching is very shallow. Am I crazy to buy low on Salazar? I could still get some value from him as a multi-inning reliever and I still believe in his skills.

Brad Johnson: I like the idea

Brad Johnson: My car service finished much quicker than projected.

Brad Johnson: I’ll stick around a little longer, but they’re going to start bothering me soon 🙂

Baryolo Cologne: Stream Bauer tonight in a 12 team IP/QS league?

Hi Erix: Start J.A. Happ today?

Eric: Start Maeda today vs. the Cards?

Brad Johnson: No, No, No

Brad Johnson: Maeda’s the closest to startable

yojiveself: if you had to drop one, who would it be – Yonder, Kendrys, Joseph?

Brad Johnson: Joseph

Chris: Would you drop Franco for Helay or Perez? 14 team H2H league

Brad Johnson: Franco

Brad Johnson: unless you don’t need any SB upside from Perez

Chris: Sell high on Mark Reynolds in anticipation of Dahl coming back? Or trust that the output and playing time will work itself out even after that happens?

Brad Johnson: Sell high simply because it’s Mark Reynolds and there are a billion better 1B

Jay: How do you get your league mates who aren’t as invested in advanced statistics to buy guys who have made changes to their process which have produced results (ie Alonso)?

Brad Johnson: You don’t. You sell them the Albert Pujols you already had on the roster

BaseballDesert: What are you doing with your teams with Trout shares?

Brad Johnson: He’s getting shopped in my 1st place ottoneu roster. I have a perpetual salary cap issue there from having Trout, Kershaw, Goldy, and Arenado

Brad Johnson: So if I find something, at least I’ll have more keeper cash

Nick: Given the lack of talent at SS, do you think Rosario is an impact player in the 2nd half?

Brad Johnson: No, I really don’t expect much from Rosario in fantasy leagues

Nittanychris: Junior Guerra? Sneaky value the ROS? He looked strong in his first start back against a tough hitting AZ team. People thought he’d fall off this year but what are the odds he doesn’t?

Brad Johnson: Definitely worth monitoring. At best, he’s a core performer. Probably a very good streamer or a poor full time rosteree

JOHN: I went with bats first in my draft. Here is the core group of dysfunction: Odor, Cargo, Herrera, Bregman, Schwarber, Contreras, Margot, Bird. Please Brad , tell me something good is going to turn on soon? My patience is driving me nuts.

Brad Johnson: CarGo, Schwarber, and Bird will probably light up

Hi Erix: Sano too tasty to give up for Trout?

Brad Johnson: Yea, unless you’re drowning in depth

Brad Johnson: Remember, this is a serious hand injury. He’s going to have less bat control when he returns

Brad Johnson: he won’t be the 217wRC+ version of Trout

Josh: Which Cardinal would you carry as a bench bat? Piscotty or Diaz? Position doesn’t matter.

Brad Johnson: Pham?

Brad Johnson: Piscotty over Diaz

Jack: I’m starting to get kind of excited about Logan Morrison and his career-high fly ball rate, as well as the fact that he is hitting more balls to CF than ever (something he explicitly told Fan Graphs he was trying to do earlier this year). Am I a fool?

Brad Johnson: He’s solid. I’d rather have Alonso, Bour, Smoak, or Joseph among the 1B breakouts

Boss Hog: Altherr or Inciarte?

Brad Johnson: Tricky

Brad Johnson: Inciarte has those extra steals. My heart wants it to be Altherr

Brad Johnson: He’s one of those guys I found first

Mike: Better stash at catcher . Ramos or Murphy ?

Brad Johnson: I’ll bet on steady Ramos over the volatile Murphy

JayTea: What days does your rotoballer column run?

Brad Johnson: Sunday-Thursday for the next day

GZA: Is there any hope for Glasnow long term? The terrible control is expected, just wondering if there’s any chance he can ever correct it.

Brad Johnson: Long term, sure. He needs to be a reliever for awhile

Dave: Tony Wolters is actually having a pretty great season. Does it end once Tom Murphy gets back or do the Rockies go with the hot bat?

Brad Johnson: No, Wolters was always going to be a the starter

Brad Johnson: Everybody had their fingers in their ears and their eyes closed all preseason

Brad Johnson: Wolters is a solid defensive catcher and a good enough hitter.

Lam Chop: Thoughts on Kole Calhoun in here? Has really tanked lately. Still rosterable in 14-team league?

Brad Johnson: I just cut him in a 12 teamer

Brad Johnson: felt really bad about it, but I couldn’t get anybody to buy my surplus OFers

Brad Johnson: and Joseph was available on the wire

Barb Lahey: Jean Segura or Elvis Andrus ROS?

Brad Johnson: Segura by many miles

Nick: How do you feel about Matt Moore ROS?

Brad Johnson: Nauseated

Pete: What are your thoughts on Berrios ROS?

Brad Johnson: He’s looking like the real deal. A year after I picked him to go nuts. I gave up on him hard too

Brad Johnson: Flat out cut $1 shares in ottoneu

Brad Johnson: whoops

E: Pedrioa or Lowrie at MI ROS?

Brad Johnson: I’m a huge Lowrie fan right now.

Brad Johnson: Until he has his annual injury, I think he’s a super secret top 10 2B option

Brad Johnson: hitting more fly balls with plenty of hard contact

toki: Bellinger > Degrom

Brad Johnson: That’s tricky

Brad Johnson: on the surface, yes, absolutely

Brad Johnson: but… if you actually need a difference making SP, you’re not going to be trading a Calhoun or Doobie Herrera for it

Brad Johnson: since there are roughly 15 good SP in the league right now (or so it feels), you will lose any trade to acquire one.

Ontilt1377: what to expect out of Tyler Anderson today? 14 team 5×5 weekly league—put him in over Vargas with his 2 starts and Vargas set to face Cleveland for the 3rd time… im so scared!!

Brad Johnson: I think Anderson is back to form, but Coors Field is terrifying

Brad Johnson: I can’t assuage your worries

Moltar: Better DL stash, Rodon or Taillon?

Brad Johnson: Taillon

Starter Jacket: best Trout replacement in a loaded waiver wire 12tm 5×5 league – D Santana, Schebler, Choo, Werth, H Perez, Y Alonso?

Brad Johnson: Alonso and Schebler are best

Carson: DJ Lemahieu or Starlin Castro in 10 teamer with obp and slg

Brad Johnson: A little concerned about DJLM this year. It’s a push

Brad Johnson: Would have laughed at this pre-season

Crazy 8: So, Mike Sonne says today he can’t find any other instances of SC-joint injuries (a la Alex Wood). Are the Dodgers now making up not just the presence of injuries but types of injuries in their playing of the DL system. Will Hill coming back, the timing is quite peculiar…

Brad Johnson: Injury reports get more and more specific over time

Brad Johnson: this may just be the next diagnosis to get disaggregated from catchalls like “sore shoulder”

Oddball Herrera: I would just like to say hello from the purgatory of Mitch Haniger’s oblique injury – it’s no fun here

Brad Johnson: I had the choice to cut Calhoun or Haniger in that league I mentioned (crowded DL)

Brad Johnson: Very nearly cut Haniger

Brad Johnson: he probably won’t make it back on my roster

Ontilt1377: EE to much to offer for Shark? EE seems to be heating up

Brad Johnson: I think so

RC: Buy low on Hanley will the power and run production be there in the end?

Brad Johnson: Not sure, the shoulder is too injured to play the field

Brad Johnson: it might be too injured for him to reach his ceiling too

Crazy 8: I am to ask every Fangraphs writer this question: better SS in dynasty OBP league – Bogaerts or Bregman?

Brad Johnson: Bogaerts

Brad Johnson: ok, wrapping this up. Thanks for playing

Moltar: Fulmer or McCullers ROS? Either of them make the leap to top-10 starter status?

Brad Johnson: McCullers, no

Crazy 8: Is E-Rod now better than Porcello for fantasy purposes, particularly dynasty?

Brad Johnson: Not quite yet

Boss Hog: Salazar droppable in a 16 team league?

Brad Johnson: No

Crazy 8: Is Gyorko a top-10 fantasy 2B now?

Brad Johnson: borderline