Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 3/27/2018
by Brad Johnson
March 27, 2018
Here’s today’s chat transcript in which I only answered 1/10th of the Scott Kingery questions.
| 3:51 |
: And we roll.
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| 3:51 |
: Why do I hate Rhys Hoskins so much?
|
| 3:51 |
: WHAT!
|
| 3:52 |
: As with any Phillies fan, closeted or otherwise, I have a massive man-crush on Rhys Hoskins
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| 3:52 |
: Gallo in the 2-hole a net positive for his fant value?
|
| 3:52 |
: Better than sixth. Changes the distribution of his runs/RBI a small amount. Increases that total slightly too.
|
| 3:52 |
: So yes, a net positive.
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| 3:52 |
: Brandon Belt or Justin Bour for a bench role?
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| 3:52 |
: Gimme Bour’s power and platoons
|
| 3:53 |
: Hi Brad, thanks for taking the time to chat with us!
Can you rank these pitchers according to your preference for fantasy? K/9, WHIP, QS are counted. 1. Wacha (looking sharp this spring) |
| 3:53 |
: For me, it’s Monty, Walker, Corbin, Faria, Wacha, Musgrove
|
| 3:53 |
: He is the bomb-diggity but all I want to do is talk about the Dentist.
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| 3:54 |
: You should take this up directly with Paul Sporer, not-PaulSporer
|
| 3:54 |
: Got his conditioning back in the off-season. Bounce back season?
|
| 3:55 |
: I think his gimmick kinda got solved by hitters while he was away. He lived with a crappy sinker and a billion sliders. Unless his repertoire changes, I can’t see more than Doug Fister-ish fantasy value
|
| 3:55 |
: I’d rather bet on Kyle Gibson if I have to reach into the discard pile
|
| 3:55 |
: How concerned should I be about Conforto’s shoulder at this point? Would Chase Anderson and Bour be too much to trade for him in a standard 8-team league?
|
| 3:55 |
: Not very concerned and decreasing by the day
|
| 3:56 |
: I maybe led the “worry about the shoulder” brigade, but he’s passing all his tests with flying colors.
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| 3:56 |
: You buying Hanley as the red sox #3 hitter/primary 1b?
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| 3:56 |
: He’s very cheap
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| 3:56 |
: How could you not buy for approximately nothing
|
| 3:56 |
: Given the OF logjam and his k happy spring, how worried should we be about Domingo Santana?
|
| 3:56 |
: For now, pretty worried. Long term, not at all
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| 3:56 |
: it’s a bad time to be his owner, it’s a great time to buy low
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| 3:57 |
: Seems like most of his starts will be when they face a LHP (via Thames)
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| 3:57 |
: Jesse Winker and Ryan McMahon: Two post hype prospects with promise playing musical chairs for playing time. What are the odds either wins ROTY?
|
| 3:57 |
: Probably pretty low just because of the competition (i.e Acuna, Kingery).
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| 3:58 |
: Both could be valuable fantasy properties. I missed on McMahon, but I have a couple Winkers. Excited about it.
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| 3:58 |
: The Braves are looking interesting this year. Inciarte and Freeman – we know what they are. Then Albies and Acuna. And Minter! Aside from being fun to watch, you think they’ll be good enough to contend?
|
| 3:58 |
: Not really. Too many black holes on the roster.
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| 3:58 |
: *Looks at third base
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| 3:58 |
: *Looks at the rotation
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| 3:59 |
: *Looks at Peter friggin Bourjos
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| 3:59 |
: any chance baby vlad sees the bigs before september or nah?
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| 3:59 |
: Non-zero
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| 3:59 |
: below 10%
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| 3:59 |
: any interest in jose peraza this season? seems like a forgotten man at 23. And his underlying numbers aren’t so different than dee gordons
|
| 3:59 |
: I like the pre-breakout Dee comp
|
| 3:59 |
: Just remember, Dee’s breakout was extremely unlikely and unanticipated
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| 4:00 |
: I’ll drop $1 on him if I need late SB and/or MI.
|
| 4:00 |
: I got no shares though
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| 4:00 |
: Last keeper help, AL OBP: Choo @ 12, Springer @ 32. Thanks!
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| 4:00 |
: Spring for Springer
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| 4:00 |
: In a keep forever league going into our 5th year. I missed on all of Albies, Moncada, and Happ so I left the draft with Scooter as my 2B and C. Hernandez on the bench. I know now is the worst time but I’m trying to get Kingery. I offered Calhoun + Puk and was turned down. Is that a fair offer? Do I just need to let the hype cool down?
|
| 4:01 |
: Smells fine. I could see turning it down though
|
| 4:01 |
: I might try to get a little more aggressive now
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| 4:01 |
: I kind of see Kingery as a 500 PA version of 2017 Buxton
|
| 4:01 |
: with 2B/SS/3B/OF eligibility
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| 4:01 |
: will TDG Invitational be back?
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| 4:02 |
: Yes! Super exciting announcement forthcoming!!!
|
| 4:02 |
: Still working out some details on a deal
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| 4:03 |
: Thoughts on Chase Anderson? Worth the chance, or are you staying away?
|
| 4:03 |
: Definitely worth rostering in all formats
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| 4:03 |
: Part of his success was increased velocity so keep an eye on that
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| 4:03 |
: a better defensive OF+run support should bode well for him
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| 4:03 |
: one of my top projections for wins per start
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| 4:04 |
: Hello Brad! Thanks for the crunch-time chat. In a 6×6 H2H redraft with OPS and NSBs instead of SBs, is Altuve still the no-brainer #2? I’m leaning Stanton since he’ll be an OPS monster and NSBs kinda nerf speed a bit, but it feels wrong to go against the consensus.
|
| 4:05 |
: Without running some numbers, I think it’s fine to take Stanton over Altuve
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| 4:05 |
: it’s the OPS though, not the net-SB
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| 4:05 |
: In a daily move Roto league (max 162 games per position), is Bour/Hanley a decent platoon if you miss out on the top 1B bats? If not, who are some other good platoon bats to pair with Bour?
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| 4:06 |
: Thames would probably be my top pick. Hanley’s a fine option too
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| 4:06 |
: Bench flyer: Jorge Soler or Michael Taylor
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| 4:06 |
: As long as the league isn’t super deep, I’d go Soler.
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| 4:07 |
: If he doesn’t look sharp, you can quickly move on with whoever starts hot
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| 4:07 |
: McMahon a must-add in 12-teamers?
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| 4:07 |
: No
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| 4:07 |
: He’s a can-add
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| 4:07 |
: Willie Calhoun or Conforto to stash on bench?
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| 4:07 |
: Conforto
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| 4:07 |
: no question
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| 4:07 |
: Would you rather Healy or Vogelbach (AL-only, OBP)?
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| 4:07 |
: Hold on
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| 4:08 |
: From a real world perspective, I prefer giving Vogelbach a chance to carve out a role.
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| 4:09 |
: The fantasy play is Healy due to playing time, even though I think Vogey is probably the better hitter right now
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| 4:09 |
: Are people sleeping on my 30+ HR potential?
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| 4:09 |
: About as much as Jayson Werth’s 30+ HR potential
|
| 4:10 |
: Yes, Walker has the components necessary to post a freak-30 HR campaign
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| 4:10 |
: But that’s true of many dozens of veteran players
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| 4:10 |
: You can’t worry too much about catching Logan Morrison before he happens
|
| 4:11 |
: because most of the time, a Logan Morrison stays the same
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| 4:11 |
: same with Walker, he’s more likely to be a semi-injured 20 HR guy with bad supporting stats
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| 4:11 |
: What are the odds that the Cardinals give Jose Martinez 500 AB this season? Would they be foolish not to?
|
| 4:11 |
: 50% is my present guess
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| 4:11 |
: 75% that they want to, then a bunch subtracted for injury risk
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| 4:12 |
: Any hope Grichuk delivers solid mixed league value this year in Toronto? Thinking 30+ HR?
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| 4:12 |
: If he gets to 30 HR – a stretch – they’ll be pretty empty
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| 4:12 |
: like 2017 Thames probably
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| 4:12 |
: Colin Moran or Todd Frazier for my ci spot in a obp/slg league?
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| 4:12 |
: My gut said Moran
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| 4:13 |
: My head said, but Frazier is sneaky valuable every year
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| 4:13 |
: To answer, decide what you NEED from the position then pick the guy more likely to deliver it
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| 4:13 |
: In a twelve team, 5 x 5 league (with OBP instead of BA) – who do you prefer: K. Marte or S. Kingery?
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| 4:14 |
: Ketel for floor, Kingery for game-shattering ceiling
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| 4:14 |
: I know we like to comp Ketel to Jose Ramirez, but this is another case where the player we’re comping had a mutant breakout
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| 4:15 |
: plan for Ketel to be a balanced replacement level player for your format
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| 4:15 |
: Kingery could be painful or a carry
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| 4:15 |
: Hello Brad.
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| 4:15 |
: Hello Beau Sox
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| 4:16 |
: Hi Brad. Saves predictions for the 3 AL committees: Rangers, ChiSox, Angels?
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| 4:16 |
: Claudio 15-20, Diekman 7, Bush 5, Kela 3, others with <3
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| 4:17 |
: Soria 25, Jones 10, others with <3
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| 4:17 |
: Parker 10, Bedrock 10, Johnson 5, rest unpredictable
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| 4:17 |
: That’s a bonafide Jim Johnson sighting
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| 4:18 |
: I guess Keynan Middleton is a guy people think has potential
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| 4:18 |
: worried about ohtani or what is your take?
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| 4:18 |
: Deeply worried
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| 4:18 |
: Never intended to buy him though
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| 4:18 |
: the price was already close to the best case scenario
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| 4:18 |
: if I wanted him, I could trade later
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| 4:18 |
: What 2018/2019 prospect is most likely to Trea Turner? i.e., non-zero power and 40+ SB, with a BA that won’t kill you. Jorge Mateo? He feels like a Semien/Lowrie mid-season injury/trade or two away from the show . . .
|
| 4:19 |
: Roman Quinn is my top Trea Turner comp
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| 4:19 |
: He’s hopeless buried in the Phillies OF
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| 4:19 |
: Kingery could be Turner-ish with 2X the HR and 30 fewer SB (that’s still 30 SB)
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| 4:20 |
: would you trade Goldy for Kluber straight up?…I have Rizzo and good hitters on bench..12 team head to head
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| 4:20 |
: Sounds like you would benefit by virtue of your talent distribution, but I definitely prefer Goldy
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| 4:20 |
: Trade JorMont and Manaea for Bumgarner in H2H leagues?
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| 4:20 |
: I like that
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| 4:21 |
: And I’m a JorMont truther
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| 4:21 |
: have to drop a bench player in need of one more pitcher….drop Fowler or Morrisson….pick up Rorak, Newcomb or peacock….?
|
| 4:21 |
: Are you sure you can’t trade one of those guys for a better SP than Roark?
|
| 4:21 |
: I prefer Brandon McCarthy fwiw
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| 4:22 |
: I’d cut Morrison over Fowler. Fowler’s so bankable.
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| 4:22 |
: AZ just extended Ketel Marte. Fantasy thoughts?
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| 4:23 |
: Almost all my leagues I refused to pay up on saves and I’m stuck with the likes of Reed, Bedrosian, Archie Bradley to start the season. Do I just need to be patient and wait on some guys or try to trade for at least one closer before the season starts? I play mostly roto with saves as a category
|
| 4:23 |
: You need to do some work hunting for values
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| 4:24 |
: Don’t force trades, but make them if they’re there
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| 4:24 |
: Most leagues have a guy who picked up 5 crappy closers and wants to cash in on Fernando Rodney
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| 4:25 |
: Kiermaier = Maybin > Buxton
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| 4:25 |
: Buxton>Kiermaier>Maybin
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| 4:25 |
: More AB’s this season: Derek Fisher or Mallex Smith?
Should I change my chat name to thicc porcello, y/n? |
| 4:25 |
: n
|
| 4:25 |
: I’ll guess Mallex.
|
| 4:26 |
: 12 team h2h points dynasty. Gerrit Cole and Mike Clevinger or Lucas Giolito and Juan Soto.. I’m halfway thru my rebuild
|
| 4:26 |
: I think I’d go for the present value.
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| 4:26 |
: Big fan on Juan Soto – he’s very flashy
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| 4:26 |
: bust risk is non-trivial
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| 4:26 |
: People seem to like Faria, but with little chance for wins and solid, but not spectacular ratios, is his upside 2017 Jameson Taillon at best (i.e. likely not a top 40 SP by season’s end)
|
| 4:27 |
: I’m with you, I don’t see the upside for performance
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| 4:27 |
: There’s some stuff, but the whole package isn’t fully actualized
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| 4:27 |
: Assuming the rest of their OF dudes stay healthy, what are the chances Kyle Tucker forces his way up this year?
|
| 4:27 |
: He could push into a pinch hitter-ish role, I guess
|
| 4:27 |
: in time for the playoffs. I doubt it though. He needs injury help
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| 4:28 |
: Brad, who gets to the majors first, Brendan Rodgers or Vlad Jr? and is either of their arrival dates in 2018?
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| 4:28 |
: Rodgers is much more likely than Vlad. Both are quite unlikely
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| 4:28 |
: How should I replace myself for a month in a 12-team roto?
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| 4:28 |
: Prepare to stream
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| 4:29 |
: Without referencing anything, my blanket recommendation for a patch is Brandon McCarthy
|
| 4:29 |
: Can Adam Engel be a legitimate fantasy guy?
|
| 4:29 |
: In a deep AL Only
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| 4:29 |
: Are Delino DeShields and Cameron Maybin close in comparison?
|
| 4:29 |
: Not really
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| 4:29 |
: Maybin is always hurt and has gaping flaws in his profile
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| 4:30 |
: He looks good when he’s on a luck streak
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| 4:30 |
: He could play his way off the roster just as easily
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| 4:30 |
: Following up on the Q about Jose Martinez, why do you think he’s an injury risk? Why can’t the Cardinals just park him at 1B (lowest risk position) and push Carpenter around the field?
|
| 4:30 |
: He’s not more of a risk than any other late-20s multi-position hitter
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| 4:31 |
: everybody’s a risk though
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| 4:31 |
: Kingery for Gerrit Cole straight up in h2 h points?
|
| 4:31 |
: You need pitching? That’s a good return for Kingery if it’s not a keeper
|
| 4:31 |
: Drop Willie Calhoun for Jesse Winker for my last bench spot?
|
| 4:31 |
: I would
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| 4:32 |
: I think I know a couple dozen people who would say that’s blasphemy
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| 4:32 |
: Would you rather have Grandal or Gattis in a one catcher league? Rankings say Gattis but he hasn’t been looking too hot lately.
|
| 4:32 |
: I prefer Grandal
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| 4:33 |
: Brad, I’m in a 16 team league with very deep rosters where just about every SP is rostered. Is Joey Lucchesi a thing I should care about?
|
| 4:33 |
: I don’t have much information about Lucchesi
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| 4:33 |
: Far as I can tell, he’s a command and control guy with no secondary stuff and a hittable fastball
|
| 4:34 |
: I’d stay away. If you have an idle roster spot, you can stash for the hell of it
|
| 4:34 |
: Arizona humidor meaningful enough for you to downgrade D-Backs hitters or upgrade D-Backs pitchers?
|
| 4:34 |
: Yes to both
|
| 4:34 |
: I think the industry consensus is around 15% if memory serves. I’m taking a less aggressive approach, personally.
|
| 4:35 |
: Jose Ramirez cut his finger in the dugout today and left the game. EOM
|
| 4:35 |
: Hector Neris in a 10 team NL only. I think I have to keep him at $5 being that closers generally go for $20+, even though it feels like I am going to get burned on it, correct?
|
| 4:35 |
: Look at it this way. I doubt you get a full season from him, but even 2 or 3 months will be worth the $5 investment
|
| 4:35 |
: Better spec add in NL only: Glasnow or A. Garrett?
|
| 4:35 |
: Glasnow
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| 4:36 |
: So Glasnow
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| 4:36 |
: Garrett is not a starting pitcher. Maybe not a reliever either
|
| 4:36 |
: Who do you like more at 2B in a 5×5 OBP league, Kinsler or Cesar Hernandez?
|
| 4:36 |
: I’m partial to Hernandez. If Kinsler keeps doing it, they’ll be neck-and-neck in value
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| 4:37 |
: and Kinsler’s eventually going to fall off a cliff
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| 4:37 |
: I have a 2B and need pitching in an h2h points, should I trade Kingery for Ohtani?
|
| 4:37 |
: trade for a comparably valued pitcher with a track record
|
| 4:37 |
: Would you trade rizzo and david price for machado and carlos santana? price is 4th best SP on squad and 3b now is maikel franco
|
| 4:37 |
: Would do
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| 4:37 |
: do I trade upton and paxton for Stanton? my staff would be price, greinke, Richards, shark, taijuan qalker, peacock.
|
| 4:37 |
: Yes
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| 4:38 |
: As much as I like Paxton, there’s a sizable chance he hardly contributes
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| 4:38 |
: 2018’s Chad Green a/k/a starter-turned-reliever success story?
|
| 4:38 |
: Way too early for this question – at least for me
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| 4:38 |
: I’m watching Jake Thompson
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| 4:38 |
: Do you bench marginal guys in daily moves leagues vs elite SPs? i.e. Fowler v Syndergaard on OD.
|
| 4:39 |
: It’s a matrix of decisions.
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| 4:39 |
: If I have Kiermaier versus Scrub Lord as an alternative, I’ll bench Fowler
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| 4:40 |
: If my option is Aaron Altherr versus Max Scherzer, I’ll stick with Fowler
|
| 4:40 |
: Does Kingery take a hit in an OBP league? I worry he is more peraza than 2016 Villar.
|
| 4:40 |
: OBP formats hurt his value
|
| 4:40 |
: The peraza comp is poor
|
| 4:40 |
: So is the Villar comp
|
| 4:40 |
: Buxton is a better statistical match
|
| 4:40 |
: Dustin fowler worth holding onto? Dynasty league, but weekly lineups. Wondering if that bench spot would be better filled with Marco Gonzales or Marquez
|
| 4:41 |
: Hold Fowler for now
|
| 4:41 |
: those pitchers aren’t likely to be very inspiring
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| 4:41 |
: How long will it be before we can tell whether or not the Humidor is having an effect? And to that end, should I hang on to my Pat Corbin share long than I would have, or use him as a streamer as I intended?
|
| 4:41 |
: Corbin should be owned in most leagues
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| 4:41 |
: His early season struggles could be linked to injury recovery
|
| 4:41 |
: with hanley so cheap do I trade moustakas for treinen and scoop up hanley?
|
| 4:42 |
: A good idea
|
| 4:42 |
: In need of SB, would you trade DeJong for Nunez?
|
| 4:42 |
: I’m not keen on paying into Nunez
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| 4:42 |
: I’ll take him for free
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| 4:42 |
: DeJong comes with his own basket of worries, but there’s as much upside as downside. I’d hang onto him for now
|
| 4:42 |
: Dynasty league…start peraza or drop for Kinsler? Have kingery too
|
| 4:43 |
: I’d be using Kinsler and Kingery
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| 4:43 |
: Beans in chili – yes or no?
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| 4:43 |
: Only black beans. None of these other bullshit beans
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| 4:43 |
: No articles, no chats, is Dave Cameron still with Fangraphs?
|
| 4:43 |
: You for serious?
|
| 4:45 |
: What % of your FAAB would you throw at Kingery in a 5-Keeper OBP league
|
| 4:45 |
: I usually let me rivals go nuts early in the FAAB year
|
| 4:46 |
: I’d maybe put up $30 of $100 just to ensure he’s costly to add
|
| 4:46 |
: any strong preferences among Karns, Stratton, Musgrove, Manaea, Chatwood, Lynn, Glasnow, Flaherty or JMont in a QS league?
|
| 4:46 |
: Monty is my strongest preference
|
| 4:46 |
: Glasnow is interesting too
|
| 4:46 |
: I have Hiura and Kingery long term at 2B, should I sell high on Kingery now or do you think Hiura moved away from 2B a la Willie Calhoun?
|
| 4:47 |
: Hiura is far enough away that you might as well address the situation later
|
| 4:47 |
: By all means, see if somebody will go nuts for Kingery
|
| 4:47 |
: but make sure you extract some economic rent in the process
|
| 4:47 |
: Is Lewis Brinson a top 50 OF this year?
|
| 4:48 |
: Wouldn’t shock me, but I doubt it
|
| 4:48 |
: Is it outrageous to ask for a Luke Weaver or Kyle Hendricks type in exchange for MadBum in a 12 team mixer? Not asking for a friend.
|
| 4:48 |
: Not at all
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| 4:48 |
: Weaver in particular is a tame ask
|
| 4:49 |
: Hendricks is probably just outside of the glob (in a good way), Weaver’s lost i the middle somewhere.
|
| 4:49 |
: Matt Chapman or Jose Martinez as a late round flier?
|
| 4:49 |
: Chapman unless you really don’t need a 3B
|
| 4:49 |
: I do like Martinez plenty if you wind up not having the choice
|
| 4:49 |
: In fact, I have JoMart in 3/8 leagues. Chapman in 0/8
|
| 4:49 |
: in a dynasty keep forever, Ive been offered Aaron Hicks for Clevinger , whose so/rp eligibility comes in handy in my h2h points league. Does Hicks play every day and can he grow into “ keeper status”?
|
| 4:50 |
: Probably and sure?
|
| 4:50 |
: Without knowing your other pitchers, that looks like a fair swap. So it comes down to needs
|
| 4:50 |
: If it’s not Martinez, who else might’ve sold their soul for some Cardinals devil magic?
|
| 4:50 |
: Oh, I have a name for this
|
| 4:50 |
: hold on
|
| 4:51 |
: Yairo Munoz is getting all kinds of complements this spring
|
| 4:51 |
: Who do you prefer to take a flier on- Flaherty or Newcomb?
|
| 4:51 |
: Flaherty for me
|
| 4:51 |
: How bad is my rotation: Paxton, McCullers, Richards, Maeda, Karns, Manaea, and J. Montgomery? Would you swap newcomb for any of them?
|
| 4:51 |
: I kind of like it as long as Paxton and McCullers can stabilize your ratios
|
| 4:52 |
: Tyler Anderson over Kuhl? And Edubray Ramos or Michael Feliz for holds?
|
| 4:52 |
: Anderson and Ramos
|
| 4:52 |
: Rule 5 Carlos Tocci (Tex) this year’s (useful version of) Billy Burns?
|
| 4:52 |
: No
|
| 4:52 |
: How many AB’s do you see Yairo Muñoz getting this year?
|
| 4:52 |
: Oh hey!
|
| 4:53 |
: I’ll say 150. It’ll probably be either like 40 or 350 though. With the low end more likely
|
| 4:53 |
: KIngery a 10-team grab for you, even if I’ve got all my MI slots locked up?
|
| 4:53 |
: Should be owned. Not necessarily by you
|
| 4:53 |
: Eno? Where are you Eno? Did you leave?
|
| 4:53 |
: He’s making a sandwich while children climb on him
|
| 4:54 |
: A. Rosario or R. McMahon in a keeper league?
|
| 4:54 |
: Rosario for now
|
| 4:54 |
: could change if he continues to suck for too long
|
| 4:54 |
: but the physical tools are LOUD
|
| 4:54 |
: hello again. Which of these 3B would you take before Devers? Phil’s Franco, Turner, Gallo Castellanos, Moose?
|
| 4:54 |
: Gallo
|
| 4:54 |
: Turner pre-injury. Not now
|
| 4:55 |
: C’est tout
|
| 4:55 |
: Why does Greg Bird tantalize the fantasy community so much? There were more than a couple “bold predictions” stating this year he would outproduce Judge in some form (more HRs, more total production, etc)…
|
| 4:55 |
: Yankee Stadium + high pull rate + high hard contact rate + high fly ball rate
|
| 4:55 |
: Who’s the best minor league stash– Eloy, Robles, Rodgers, Tatis?
|
| 4:56 |
: What’s the time horizon?
|
| 4:56 |
: Robles this year, Tatis career?
|
| 4:56 |
: I say Tatis based purely on hype. Everybody who sees him play has some kind of “best I’ve ever seen” comment
|
| 4:56 |
: Best non-top 12 catcher to fill in for Realmuto? (Chirinos taken)
|
| 4:57 |
: I’m driving the Suzuki bandwagon if you don’t mind a 50% guy
|
| 4:57 |
: Unfortunately, the guys who can actually hit won’t play more than that
|
| 4:57 |
: Can Boxberger keep the job and net around 25 saves without destroying your WHIP while keeping about 12k/9?
|
| 4:57 |
: Can do
|
| 4:57 |
: Might not, but it’s not impossible
|
| 4:58 |
: or even unlikely
|
| 4:58 |
: Clear?
|
| 4:58 |
: Who do you like more: Cain or Buxton?
|
| 4:58 |
: Very situational
|
| 4:58 |
: Usually Cain though
|
| 4:58 |
: who do you think the primary 8th inning guy in oakland winds up being? really like pagan for it
|
| 4:58 |
: Seems like the front runner
|
| 4:58 |
: Why so high on McCarthy? He’s available in my 12-team on waivers… get me on the hype-train!
|
| 4:59 |
: When he’s healthy, he’s typically a good source for ERA and WHIP with a decent K rate
|
| 4:59 |
: Braves are good enough to get him some wins
|
| 4:59 |
: can you tell us again how you navigate the queue for chats like this?
|
| 5:00 |
: Sure. I answer questions in order for some amount of time. I’ll skip any that would take awhile or are too boring in my opinion
|
| 5:00 |
: could be 10 to 15 minutes
|
| 5:00 |
: then I start skipping forward arbitrarily
|
| 5:00 |
: near the end, I’m usually answer questions as they come in
|
| 5:00 |
: Unfortunately, around this time of year, I get about 15X more questions than I can answer
|
| 5:01 |
: Any love for Nick Pivetta? Looking to add some SP depth.
|
| 5:01 |
: Less love than others. I was an early adopter as a streamer, but I just can’t buy him for more
|
| 5:01 |
: boxberger a top 10 closer IF he can stay healthy this year? Better than Iglesias IF they both play the full season
|
| 5:01 |
: No
|
| 5:01 |
: Well…
|
| 5:02 |
: When I think “top X closer” I come from the perspective of skills
|
| 5:02 |
: i.e. what can I project going forward
|
| 5:02 |
: Alex Colome was a top 5 closer while having bottom 10 skills last year
|
| 5:03 |
: I can’t predict when something like that will happen
|
| 5:03 |
: Greg Bird is like Nick Johnson without the good stats.
|
| 5:03 |
: Everybody’s favorite new comp
|
| 5:03 |
: Brinson for JMont? SP is weak
|
| 5:03 |
: Can do
|
| 5:03 |
: oh god, there’s a second page of chat comments
|
| 5:03 |
: I’m closing down this operation soon
|
| 5:03 |
: What tier would you have Boxberger in, now that he has been named closer?
|
| 5:04 |
: I’ll be releasing the initial Saves and Steals tiers tomorrow on Rotoworld
|
| 5:04 |
: sometime early in the afternoon
|
| 5:04 |
: Weird the hype blackout for Miles Mikolas … his first Spring outing was a disaster so no one seems aware he’s had three excellent ones his last times out, sitting in the high 90s, i.e. 5 mph more velocity than expected?
|
| 5:05 |
: Interesting. In the spring, a lot can fly under my radar, I rely on my fellows to point me at changes
|
| 5:05 |
: I’ll have to take a look later
|
| 5:06 |
: Could you rank these closers? – Boxberger, Parker, Leone, Greene
|
| 5:06 |
: Initially or season long
|
| 5:06 |
: Initially, Box, Leone, Parker, Greene
|
| 5:06 |
: season long, Box, Green, Parker, Leone
|
| 5:07 |
: Leone has a narrow window to prove he should be the closer
|
| 5:07 |
: What are your thoughts on Villar bouncing back and being a bargain this year?
|
| 5:07 |
: It’s possible
|
| 5:07 |
: I wish I had a share or two just in case
|
| 5:07 |
: but I don’t
|
| 5:07 |
: any changes to approach in a net saves and net steals 5×5?
|
| 5:07 |
: Not really, I might pay $2 instead of $3 for Rodney
|
| 5:08 |
: I’ll zero out the base running value for a few CS-prone guys
|
| 5:08 |
: But you still need volume
|
| 5:08 |
: Boegarts and Teheran for Hoskins in a keeper points league. Which side do you like
|
| 5:08 |
: Hoskins
|
| 5:08 |
: Am I crazy for thinking Mitch Garver is a good $1 sleeper at C in a 15 team, 2 catcher league? His MLB numbers last year were terrible, but he’s got pop and will mostly start against LHP.
|
| 5:09 |
: A nice sleepy sleeper
|
| 5:09 |
: At least as good as Tom Murphy last year
|
| 5:09 |
: people went wild for Murphy
|
| 5:09 |
: Do you put any stock in contract years? Semien’s always been kind of interesting, wondering if he’s worth starting in a 6×6 w/ walks, 12 teams
|
| 5:10 |
: I’ve found nothing statistically predictable related to contract years. Semien specifically was quietly having a breakout year. Put up his usual full season counting stats in half a year
|
| 5:10 |
: Yer not a grouch at all
|
| 5:10 |
: grumble
|
| 5:10 |
: I have a claim in for JA Happ and Kingery. What order would you do?
|
| 5:10 |
: Kingery over Happ
|
| 5:10 |
: Happ may well be more productive, but his skill set is much more replaceable
|
| 5:10 |
: tyler yates, jake diekman, or steve cishek for holds?
|
| 5:11 |
: Diekman if you want a chance for bonus saves
|
| 5:11 |
: Cishek if all you care about are the holds
|
| 5:11 |
: What kind of upside/downside do you see for Charlie Morton this year?
|
| 5:11 |
: 20% better than last year to instantly injured
|
| 5:12 |
: Aaron Sanchez or Jordan Montgomery?
|
| 5:12 |
: Sanchez
|
| 5:12 |
: If, like some have said, Harper is in line for 400 million this offseason, would Trout be looking at 500 million? And where does Machado fall in this massive payday mix?
|
| 5:12 |
: … asking for a friend.
|
| 5:12 |
: I can’t even imagine what Trout could have signed for…
|
| 5:13 |
: I picture the Yankees buying the Marlins and saying they’ll give to Trout at the end of a 12-year contract.
|
| 5:13 |
: And Derek Jeter sitting in a room surrounded by clowns in Crying Jordan masks
|
| 5:13 |
: How does Kingery turning into a younger version of Ben Zobrist play into Phillies OF situation? How does PT get split with Altherr and Williams?
|
| 5:14 |
: I think we’ll see him defensive sub for Hoskins more than anything
|
| 5:14 |
: Maybe a few extra off days for Hoskins and Doobie
|
| 5:14 |
: I doubt it affects Altherr and Williams if they’re performing
|
| 5:14 |
: They were already not playing much more than 50%
|
| 5:14 |
: What are the chances Morrow stays healthy and keeps closing all year?
|
| 5:14 |
: 55-60%?
|
| 5:15 |
: Is Garrett Cooper a good late flier in deep leagues?
|
| 5:15 |
: He’s stashable in very deep formats
|
| 5:15 |
: like player 700 to 900
|
| 5:15 |
: Do you think a closed bid auction slow draft would be a feasible/fun way to draft a league?
|
| 5:15 |
: Yes and Yes
|
| 5:15 |
: Speaking of Colome, think he can hold the job all year?
|
| 5:15 |
: Unless he’s traded
|
| 5:15 |
: I see no real competition otherwise
|
| 5:16 |
: What do you expect from Matz this year? Better bet than Harvey?
|
| 5:16 |
: Not much. 12-team replacement level? Yes, much better than Harvey.
|
| 5:16 |
: Harvey was the most hilarious overhype of the spring
|
| 5:17 |
: Everybody reported his top velocity as if it went way up. Meanwhile, the mean velocity hadn’t changed.
|
| 5:17 |
: Is that true in Mikolas velo?
|
| 5:17 |
: No idea
|
| 5:17 |
: I have to ping some sources to find out
|
| 5:17 |
: Eddie Rosario – 20/20 potential?
|
| 5:18 |
: No
|
| 5:18 |
: I just can’t find a way to the SB
|
| 5:18 |
: He shouldn’t attempt any steals
|
| 5:18 |
: let alone the 38 he’d need to reach 20 swipes
|
| 5:18 |
: Would you drop Nunez for Kingery in an OBP league? I am weak on steals…
|
| 5:19 |
: They both run so the SB issue isn’t relevant
|
| 5:19 |
: Nunez will play everyday initially before (hopefully) becoming a cut around May 1
|
| 5:19 |
: Kingery will initially play rarely before (hopefully) growing into a near every day role
|
| 5:20 |
: do you really need the production now?
|
| 5:20 |
: ok, time to wrap this up with a lightning round.
|
| 5:20 |
: Have Millennials ruined fantasy baseball?
|
| 5:20 |
: YES
|
| 5:20 |
: Think Ian Happ sticks at leadoff? Seems like a weird fit for a low contact power guy with average patience.
|
| 5:20 |
: He’s a weird fit
|
| 5:20 |
: All the Cubs are
|
| 5:20 |
: Would you drop Nate Jones for either Claudio or Parker if in need of saves? There’s a limit on transactions, so I’d prefer not to churn too much. Thanks!
|
| 5:20 |
: Maybe not
|
| 5:20 |
: because of the limit
|
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Ddd
Definitely Pinker!
If we’re talking likelihood, I would actually bet Winker. Martinez is enticing, but there’s a pretty good chance he’s basically the same as last year in a similar number of PA. Zimmer has the highest ceiling and the lowest floor of the group.
Can you show the question you are responding to?
He deleted it. Was a list of likeliest breakouts from Pinker (sic), Jose Martinez, Zimmer, and Haniger.
Awesome, thanks!