Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2/4/2020
by Brad Johnson
February 4, 2020
The chat is complete. Digest this transcript if you dare.
| 3:47 |
: I’m just screwing around with Twitter instead of finishing my player caps so let’s just get this ball rolling.
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| 3:49 |
: Downs and Verdugo stocks would go way up with a trade to BOS right? Even though it’s not the best park for Verdugo at least he’d get the playing time
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| 3:49 |
: Absolutely. Boston has a thin farm system whereas the Dodgers not only have a trove of prospects, they also keep minting all these excellent not-prospects.
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| 3:50 |
: They have a small horde just waiting to climb over the walls of Triple-A.
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| 3:50 |
: Really, they’d crush the Tigers and Orioles.
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| 3:50 |
: Are you staying away from eugenio suarez or looking to pounce if his ADP drops to about 80-90 (i think it’s in the 40s or so now)?
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| 3:50 |
: Well yes.
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| 3:50 |
: There is a point where I’m back in. It’s not at full price which is probably late-40s.
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| 3:51 |
: Somewhere around 75?
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| 3:51 |
: What do you see as Senzel’s short term and long term outlook at this point?
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| 3:51 |
: I saw somebody trying to comp him to Suarez today. I’m not really here for that.
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| 3:52 |
: My latest Podcast guest believes he’ll be a good college coach or a surgeon. https://www.patreon.com/posts/33612382
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| 3:52 |
: Personally, I find myself a little confused by his profile. Kinda JD Davis with some SBs?
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| 3:53 |
: Seems like a legit high BABIP guy based on low-angle contact. Probably going to be disappointed on power even if the exit velocity is nice.
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| 3:53 |
: 12 team 6×6 roto (OPS + QS added). Keep 2. Devers round 10, Yordan round 11, Bieber round 13. Who’s the cut? I will be picking 12th. What would you do there?
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| 3:53 |
: I take it a trade isn’t really an option.
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| 3:54 |
: I’m not sure I have the heart to cut any of them on your behalf. Kinda lean Devers if I MUST choose.
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| 3:55 |
:
You Must Cut One!
Rafael Devers (33.3% | 24 votes)
Yordan Alvarez (29.1% | 21 votes)
Shane Bieber (37.5% | 27 votes)
Total Votes: 72
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| 3:55 |
: In a 12-team H2H points league, I have two keeper spots left for Bauer, Severino, Lynn or Giolito. Which two do I pick?
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| 3:55 |
: EZ Sevy
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| 3:56 |
: Then decide if you want to bet on Bauer rediscovering his mojo or Giolito maintaining his breakout. I lean Giolito personally.
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| 3:56 |
: Might be a case for Lynn if you’re only concerned about 2020.
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| 3:56 |
: But even then I prefer the others.
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| 3:56 |
: Dusty kind of has a reputation for preferring vets over young guys. What does his hire do for Kyle Tucker’s playing time situation (if anything)?
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| 3:56 |
: Tucker was already going to have to break through a logjam by mashing. And if he does, Dusty will play him.
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| 3:57 |
: This is Dusty’s reputation, but if memory serves, he was happy enough to use elite prospects. It was those interesting fringe guys we’re always clamoring to set free who will suffer #RIPMylesStaw
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| 3:57 |
: Amed Rosario worth $10 in NL only league?
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| 3:57 |
: Probably worth nearer to $20
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| 3:58 |
: Am I being dumb for clutching my Musgrove and Keller pearls right now? Had a lot of offers for them in my dynasty league, but I’m feeling pretty confident in them.
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| 3:58 |
: Just depends on the offers
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| 3:58 |
: I don’t understand why so many are down on Benintendi?
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| 3:58 |
: Well he was really bad… That said, I’m buying at the same price I was buying last year. Granted, I landed zero new shares due to the hype being a little out of control.
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| 3:58 |
: Amed or Franmil?
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| 3:59 |
: Quick try to pick two more dissimilar players.
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| 3:59 |
: The answer is usually going to be Amed, he’s just a better roto asset.
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| 3:59 |
: But if you’re hurting for HR, you might have to take a shot at the 40 HR upside
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| 3:59 |
: He’s BSHOL!
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| 3:59 |
: Do you foresee Aquino getting enough time this season to be an asset?
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| 4:00 |
: Later, possibly. Not to draft in non-deep formats
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| 4:00 |
: Was planning on Benintendi as my last keeper in a OBP roto league, but I’m seeing a lot of people down on him (thinking of switching him out for Kyle Tucker). Was thinking more about it and he doesn’t seem all that dissimilar from Adam Eaton (who I certainly wouldn’t be looking at as a keeper) other than the health. Is there real upside either in speed or power with him or am I safe to cut him loose in a league that keeps about 100-110 guys?
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| 4:00 |
: I don’t how many keeps you get, but a young Adam Eaton in an OBP format is a hell of a drug
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| 4:01 |
: Of course, passing on Tucker is pretty tricky too. But I’d take Benintendi without a second thought based on the info you’ve given.
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| 4:02 |
: Will FanGraphs be hosting the SaberSim projections this year?
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| 4:02 |
: As far as I know, yes. However, their tool has more powerful projections and isn’t too expensive compared to others on the market. (fd: I get it for free)
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| 4:03 |
: (I’m also not paid or induced to promote them, I genuinely like them)
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| 4:03 |
: Keeper league, I’ve been offered Gore and Bart for Wander. All have the same keeper price (they’re all in the minors for now). What should I do? I’m building towards ~2021-22
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| 4:03 |
: Super easy pass for me
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| 4:03 |
: In a QS league, do you feel better about keeping Lamet or Marquez.
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| 4:03 |
: Marquez
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| 4:04 |
: Would love to hear your thoughts on Glasnow for this year. Over or under 150 IP? Seems like the hype train is ignoring the TJS warning signals of his forearm strain and setbacks during 2019 (My person decision is whether to keep him at $12 or Matt Chapman at $7 in a 12 team roto keep forever, standard categories $260 budget…my other keepers are Scherzer and 5 stud bats).
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| 4:04 |
: I’d lean Glasnow in that specific situation. Again though, passing on a $7 Chapman does kinda hurt.
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| 4:05 |
: I’m probably betting on under 150 IP but willing to pay for the over in fantasy
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| 4:05 |
: Let’s say he’s 40% to go over just to put a number on it. Those are almost all extremely valuable scenarios.
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| 4:05 |
: And even at 120 IP, he could earn $12.
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| 4:06 |
: Odds Senzel gets enough PT at 2B before Suarez comes back to get his 2B eligibility back?
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| 4:06 |
: I would not assume they’re just going to shift Moustakas to 3B to kick off his 4-year contract
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| 4:07 |
: They bought him as a 2B, and I think they’ll leave him there
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| 4:07 |
: So it’s probably Senzel who’s handling spare 3B starts
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| 4:07 |
: Please rank these 3….N Anderson, A Munoz, E Clase.
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| 4:07 |
: You’ve done it.
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| 4:07 |
: I haven’t seen anyone talk about Bieber’s less-than-stellar statcast numbers. Is there any reason to be concerned with the hard contact he gives up? (4th percentile EV and 5th for hard hit rate)
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| 4:08 |
: I was worried about it going into 2019. I had him and Nick Pivetta in the same asset class. I get now why they’re different (Pivetta’s fastball doesn’t play), but I still see serious homeritis risk
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| 4:08 |
: And it’s not tied to a juiced ball
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| 4:09 |
: Thanks Brad! Would be grateful to hear why Franco>>Bart & Gore is so clear-cut for you.
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| 4:09 |
: Generational talent compared to a couple core-to-star quality players. One of whom is a pitcher and thus prone to long-tail outcomes.
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| 4:10 |
: And what I mean by that is Gore’s path to MLB regular includes outcomes like Giolito, Glasnow, and Cole
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| 4:10 |
: Serious upside and we have every reason to believe he’ll eventually be an ace if he stays healthy
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| 4:11 |
: But… pitchers with big stuff tend to experience growing pains upon entering the majors.
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| 4:11 |
: Relatively shallow H2H 7×6 (QS + K/9 instead of Ks) – does this setup still lend itself to going heavy on high end pitchers, or does the extra hitting category skew that strategy?
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| 4:12 |
: Both conditions are probably true. Since the league is shallow, elite SP is still the scarcest/stackable source of points.
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| 4:12 |
: What would you give up for Benintendi in dynasty?
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| 4:12 |
: You’d need to define this a lot more. See: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/league-depth-affects-prospect-value/
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| 4:13 |
: I’ll use 20-team deep rosters for this.
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| 4:13 |
: On the PV side, something like J.D. Martinez and a solid older pitcher. Lance Lynn?
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| 4:14 |
: On the FV side, a trio of guys you like. I’ll say Luis Urias, Marco Luciano, and Kris Bubic just to put some names on it
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| 4:15 |
: How do you prefer Luzardo Woodruff and Lamet in an IP/QS league with similar future keepability? 12 teams and I’m rebuilding after a title
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| 4:15 |
: If I can look out past 2020, I strongly prefer Luzardo
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| 4:15 |
: They’re similar asset class for me in 2020 with Lamet perhaps looking the best.
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| 4:15 |
: Major differences in how the projection systems (e.g., Steamer/Depth Charts) are valuing Sale vs. the imputed value from his ADP right now. Do you see him as a buying opportunity or an example of where the computers don’t know things that we do (serious injury, declining velocity)?
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| 4:16 |
: Well it’s a little bit of both. I haven’t found any opportunities to grab shares of him in the few drafts I’ve done thus far.
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| 4:16 |
: We should quickly learn more in the coming weeks.
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| 4:17 |
: I won my league last year (12-tm H2H 5×5) and as such get to choose my draft position. I can keep Yelich at the cost of my 1st-round pick, and decide to pick 12th, or I can free up that other keeper and pick #1 overall… but that pick will almost certainly be Yelich. It’s a 6-keeper league, keep no more than 3 years. Is that marginal 6th-best keeper (probably something like Laureano in the 14th or Will Smith (C) in the 21st) worth dropping from the #13 pick to #24/25?
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| 4:18 |
: I’m not 100% sure I understand. So the option is Yelich + Laureano/Smith and pick 24/25 or Yelich, pick 13, and 36/37…
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| 4:18 |
: yes, exactly
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| 4:19 |
: I feel like this should be obvious to me, but something isn’t clicking
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| 4:19 |
: Lemme investigate ADPs and put some names on it.
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| 4:20 |
: And I get these aren’t going to be the actually available names, I just want to see what the difference between 24/25 and 13,36,37 looks like.
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| 4:21 |
: So that’s roughly Flaherty/Harper/Laureano or Arenado/Altuve/Snell for those who are curious (again, not the actual scenario as probably all of those guys will be kept)
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| 4:23 |
: I think this is where I stand. I’m likely not keeping Smith (ADP in the 140s). Laureano is late-70s which is a more plausible keep. So, since you have a foundational yelich, do you need a guy like Laureano or do you want to reselect from similar value players?
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| 4:23 |
: Hope that helps.
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| 4:23 |
: Don’t time out this time 🙂
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| 4:23 |
: Excuse me folks, I’ll brb
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| 4:24 |
: Steele Walker with the 16th pick of the 35th round of a 25-team dynasty
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| 4:24 |
: Let’s carry on
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| 4:25 |
: pick 1 to keep: A $1 Lux or a $10 robles muncy/ semien/ glasnow (espn $260 budget)
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| 4:25 |
: Depends a little on future considerations. Can you keep keeping them at $10? I want long term shares of Robles, but not if he’s inflating too fast.
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| 4:25 |
: Muncy, Semien, and Glasnow are all great PV plays.
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| 4:26 |
: And if you’re going to get a decade of Lux, that might be hard to pass
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| 4:27 |
: But I’m guessing these increase about $5/yr and you’ll be incentivized to prioritize PV
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| 4:27 |
: How do you view devers this year? Can he be a top fantasy asset? Top 3b?
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| 4:27 |
: Seems like aggressive expectations
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| 4:28 |
: The smart math is he’ll regress.
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| 4:28 |
: I don’t think we should count on skills growth
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| 4:28 |
: and the supporting cast might be weaker without Betts (plus Bogaerts going insane).
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| 4:28 |
: assuming they even get around to dealing Betts
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| 4:29 |
: fwiw, I’m mostly on board with his player page projections, except maybe 26-28 HR instead
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| 4:29 |
: hey brad. 5X5 12 man roto league with $300 at auction. am i right in thinking a $10 meadows is better than a $32 rendon or a $19 villar?
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| 4:30 |
: A $10 Meadows is extremely attractive. You’re probably pretty close to auction prices on those other two.
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| 4:30 |
: Say $45 and $25 respectively?
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| 4:30 |
: Meadows about $24ish?
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| 4:31 |
: If those guestimates are right, you can re-buy the pricier ones cheaper than Meadows.
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| 4:31 |
: Who is the One Dude you want late that everyone is overlooking?
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| 4:31 |
: Oh don’t make me…
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| 4:31 |
: fine
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| 4:32 |
: Obviously it varies by league depth. I’m still an Anibal believer.
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| 4:33 |
: I’ve seen Nick Solak late in 12-teamers
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| 4:33 |
: Looking deeper, I still want Josh Rojas fliers
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| 4:33 |
: I want Tyler Mahle, Nick Pivetta, and Vince Velasquez as end-game SP dart throws.
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| 4:34 |
: Joe Ross is ADP 600 and at least as talented as ADP 300 pitchers
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| 4:34 |
: Holds are still unbelvably hard to come by! What are a few strategies to Grabbing holds during the season
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| 4:34 |
: The main thing is to just stay active and on top of bullpen usage patterns.
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| 4:35 |
: I find it tedious, but thankfully I’m paid to do it. I’d probably just wing it otherwise.
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| 4:35 |
: RE Devers there’s a lot in hist statistical profile indicating he should’ve hit more HR last year, and many have written how a minor launch angle tweak would put him over 40 pretty easily
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| 4:36 |
: Yea, more power is definitely possible. But it’s such a tough stadium on power that betting sub-30 HR is super easy imo.
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| 4:36 |
: Lefty power that is
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| 4:36 |
: Behold!
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| 4:36 |
: or don’t. Apparently I can’t paste images
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| 4:37 |
: Coulda sworn I could
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| 4:37 |
:
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| 4:37 |
: Rangers signed him
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| 4:37 |
: Probably not the most ideal landing place, but there is a path for him to scrabble past Ronald Guzman and various utility men
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| 4:38 |
: Range of outcomes for Jameson Taillon this year?
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| 4:38 |
: Does not pitch to does not pitch
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| 4:38 |
: Thoughts on Stanton this year? Kind of forgotten, after a forgetable 2019?
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| 4:38 |
: not by his 53 ADP
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| 4:39 |
: I really like sluggers like Stanton this year. I want power hitters whose output won’t slump based on the ball
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| 4:39 |
: Because even if the year starts with the 2019 ball, I strongly suspect it’ll be phased out by the end.
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| 4:39 |
: Thoughts on Galvis – he is currently the everyday SS, right? But if the reds find themselves in contention, thats an easy upgrade spot. Worth keeping at $10?
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| 4:39 |
: In NL Only? Probably about par value.
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| 4:40 |
: Cut him loose in anything else. Worst case, you redraft for the same.
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| 4:40 |
: How do you typically breakdown your H/P spend % in a h2h $260 auction?
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| 4:40 |
: Well… I tend to go rogue with a 20/80 split if the league is towards the shallow side of things (12-team mixed or shallower)
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| 4:41 |
: I’m partly counting on nobody else doing this.
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| 4:41 |
: So you end up getting a ton of early ace wins at only a few bucks over
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| 4:41 |
: while everybody is carefully spending all their cash on bats
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| 4:41 |
: Me being me, I also have to constantly check to see if somebody has decided to troll me in the draft.
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| 4:42 |
: It’s not like I’m quiet about this being my go-to in shallow H2H
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| 4:42 |
: So it only takes one “price enforcer” to send me to Plan B
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| 4:42 |
: In re: to sluggers that you like whose power won’t be messed up by a deader ball, does that mean you are in at the sophomore buying price of The Polar Bear?
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| 4:43 |
: Eh, I think I find myself preferring the older class (Stanton, JDM, Cruz) and Gallo. I tend to avoid hyped sophomores.
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| 4:43 |
: Favorite OF sleepers around 150-300ADP?
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| 4:45 |
: McCutchen (199 ADP), Eaton (206), JUpton (227), Avisail (234), Choo (249), Riley (264)
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| 4:45 |
: I detect a pattern!
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| 4:45 |
: How many wins is Mookie really worth? Will our forecasted win total go up or down? Is this the Bryce Harper effect? Win the World Series without your best player?
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| 4:46 |
: Yea, good luck replacing Betts with your version of Juan Soto and Victor Robles
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| 4:46 |
: It’s pure loss for Boston
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| 4:46 |
: gimme your free, late-round catcher you’re plugging in as your starter
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| 4:46 |
: For 12-team mixed, I want Sean Murphy shares.
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| 4:47 |
: For 2 C, I’ll take a stab at a Tom Murphy reunion, although I feel like I should just take my 2019 winnings and never look back to him.
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| 4:47 |
: Danny Jansen
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| 4:48 |
: If I realllllly have to reach, I’ll bet Pedro Severino over Chance Sisco
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| 4:49 |
: I have Acuna for 2 years, so winning now is the goal. If I have the opportunity to swap my Blake Snell and Jo Adell for his Max Fried and Wander Franco (points league where pitching volume matters)–do I pass?
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| 4:49 |
: That’s going to come down to how hard you want to buy this supposed Fried breakout
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| 4:49 |
: A lot of my colleagues are talking like he’s bankable, and I’m not quite as confident.
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| 4:50 |
: But, if we’re buying in all the way, it’s arguable he’s already better than Snell.
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| 4:51 |
: For me, the hardest thing to swallow is his 2.55 B/9. I kinda have him on a 4.00 BB/9 going forward. Pitchers who surge in BB/9 usually give most of it back the next year.
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| 4:52 |
: In any case, if Snell = Fried is somewhere close to true, then you have to take Wander even if Adell might have helped more now.
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| 4:52 |
: Is a 15 team dynasty league (50 person rosters) large enough that you start valuing ‘sure thing’ but non-crazy-ceiling prospects (Madrigal, Vaughn, etc) more relative to high-risk-high-upside prospects (Dominguez etc)? Or is it still small enough that you would generally rather gamble with prospects on high-upside guys rather than safer prospects?
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| 4:53 |
: I’m not sure I really make this distinction in any format.
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| 4:53 |
: It’s certainly fine to prefer near-majors to distant guys. Or vice versa. Whatever you’re best at developing. Play to your strengths.
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| 4:54 |
: I know I feel like I’m pretending a bit when I try to take shots at IFA guys. Just grabbed a share of Ronny Paulino and have no idea what to think about it. Next pick was the aforementioned Steele Walker play who’s much more in my wheelhouse of near-majors with fantasy traits.
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| 4:55 |
: Dominguez is so hyped that he’s a bad example
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| 4:55 |
: If LA gets Betts, I am heading to Boston 100 Percent? Am I better or as good as Robles?
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| 4:55 |
: I don’t think we can assume 100%
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| 4:56 |
: Although it makes way too much sense, the Dodgers would only be locking in a year with any certainty. So they might just want to option Verdugo instead. Or use him on the extendi-bench
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| 4:57 |
: I’m not really liking this Robles comp. Verdugo is more actualized but Robles still seems to have more HR and SB output by a huge factor. And I think Robles is going to grow into monsterdom.
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| 4:58 |
: I could tentatively climb on board a Verdugo over Robles for 2020 bet if we leave out SBs.
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| 4:58 |
: Would you rather have Bregman and Clevenger or deGrom and Harper?
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| 4:58 |
: Let’s ask (I don’t care honestly)
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| 4:58 |
:
Which?
Bregman and Clevinger (50.0% | 20 votes)
deGrom and Harper (50.0% | 20 votes)
Total Votes: 40
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| 4:59 |
: any meta Reliever strategy this year? feels like Saves are getting harder to predict, even though RPs are getting better
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| 4:59 |
: I’m avoiding investing in expensive relievers. Unless my leaguemates also leave them as too cheap.
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| 4:59 |
: why is Giancarlo Actual Stanton going 20 picks after Pete Alonso?
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| 4:59 |
: He’s back to “injury prone”
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| 5:00 |
: Not really, but that’s part of the perception. Also hit that magical age 30 number.
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| 5:00 |
: Is it unusual for a kid of my age to be a regular FanGraphs reader, and make my own player rater to use in my three Fantasy leagues?
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| 5:01 |
: A little bit, but not in a bad way. And if you ever decide you want to write or work in a front office, now’s as good a time as any to start.
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| 5:01 |
: Victor Wang was like 16 when he wrote his big piece about prospect values. (it’s now outdated). He’s been hiding in front offices since he was 18.
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| 5:02 |
: (I think)
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| 5:02 |
: is 3rd the best draft position this year?
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| 5:02 |
: I’m not sure, but it does leave you with a nice situation in the first round.
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| 5:02 |
: Can’t feel bad about getting Trout, Yelich, Acuna, or Cole.
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| 5:02 |
: Which Oakland Matt hits .270 with 40+ HR this year?
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| 5:04 |
: None? .270 seems robust though I suppose those extra HR might put ’em over the edge.
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| 5:04 |
: I wanted to confirm numbers but FG isn’t loading for me just now.
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| 5:06 |
: Both have a decent chance to scrape across 40 HR though
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| 5:06 |
: Time to wrap it up
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| 5:06 |
: Feeling the Kintzler love as a late rounds closer? Miami looks better on paper
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| 5:07 |
: Probably my third choice of Miami reliever. This post was pre-Kintzler signing but still holds up. I’d try Stanek first. https://www.patreon.com/posts/33363046
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| 5:07 |
: Who’s a more realistic bust this season, k. Marte, r. Devers, or a. Meadows
|
| 5:07 |
: I think Marte’s probably at most risk of turning ordinary.
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| 5:08 |
: Remember when Jeff Sullivan called Marte a Jose Ramirez?
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| 5:08 |
: Well what if he’s a Jose Ramirez?
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| 5:08 |
: For us neophytes in AL- or NL-only dynasty leagues, what happens when a real-life trade sends a player from one league to the other. Does the owner of the departing player get some kind of compensation in the next year’s draft? Does he or she get first rights to the player who is entering the league as a result of the real-life trade? Is he or she just out of luck?
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| 5:09 |
: I like the draft pick compensation idea. But you’d probably want the pick tied to the player quality.
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| 5:09 |
: Typically, SHOL is the answer
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| 5:09 |
: which is why you see few Only dynasties. Plenty of keeper leagues though.
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| 5:09 |
: Judge or Rendon?
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| 5:10 |
: I think I’m supposed to say Rendon, but I want Judge.
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| 5:10 |
: Who are under radar NL prospects that could make a splash this season but aren’t as well known
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| 5:10 |
: Jared Oliva for the Pirates jumps to mind.
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| 5:10 |
: JJ Bleday could race through that Miami farm system
|
| 5:10 |
: it’s possible but unlikely.
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| 5:11 |
: David Peterson might be the Mets only SP depth right now.
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| 5:12 |
: Victor Squared made some really noticeable mechanical adjustments which could shoot him through the system too.
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| 5:12 |
: How far out is victor victor mesa right now from MLB time?
|
| 5:12 |
: On the track he was on last year, I’d say he wasn’t a MLBer
|
| 5:12 |
: So he’ll need to truly have improved.
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| 5:13 |
: zero SF Giants going in the top 250 ADP. There has to be value to a generic MLB baseball player who gets to hit 3rd or leadoff every day in an MLB lineup, right?!
|
| 5:13 |
: Absolutely. But who is doing that for the Giants?
|
| 5:13 |
: Like they’re all 40-grade players
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| 5:14 |
: the entire lineup. Do you know which is going to play like a 45 and get to bat cleanup? I don’t. Assume it’s Belt and Posey. I’m still not paying a top 250 pick for them.
|
| 5:14 |
: Time to sell my Freeman Altuve Arenado Rendon in 20 team dynasty or give it one more run for a title?
|
| 5:14 |
: It always depends on what’s being offered.
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| 5:15 |
: I find the offers improve mid-season.
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| 5:15 |
: You said will smith wasn’t keepable for you in a previous response, but in an NL only league, what would you be comfortable bidding on him?
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| 5:15 |
: That was a very specific scenario
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| 5:15 |
: A league that keeps about 75 players if I recall
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| 5:15 |
: I’m pretty hyped on him in NL Only.
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| 5:16 |
: Ok good game folks, I’m back on the clock in another draft.
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