Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2/25/2020
by Brad Johnson
February 25, 2020
I got a lot of questions about Mike Soroka today. I said I’m not concerned. I like him! And I proved it this very moment by selecting him 96th in TGFBI.
| 3:55 |
: We’ll get started in a few minutes. |
| 3:55 |
: spam me with some Severino questions and we’ll try to knock this out right at the start
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| 3:59 |
: w severino out who would you target in a keeper al only league where not much pitching is available but Sale, Kluber and Morton will be? Pay up for Sale or take a bit of a discount on either of the others?
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| 3:59 |
: What yankee pitcher do you think gains value w the injury to sevy?
|
| 4:00 |
: Mmm… Lasagna |
| 4:00 |
: I would target Morton if you’re confident about the discount happening
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| 4:01 |
: I *might* even prefer Morton
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| 4:02 |
: Loaisiga is the most obvious winner – he’ll get a legit shot. Jordan Montgomery now has an even longer leash too.
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| 4:02 |
: I suppose Deivi Garcia is the mix along with Luis Cessa is Loaisiga doesn’t work out.
|
| 4:03 |
: Chad Bettis and Nick Tropeano are in camp as NRIs. So is prospect Clarke Schmidt. |
| 4:04 |
: That’s… all the Sevy questions I got so let’s move along
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| 4:04 |
: So like… is Soroka even rosterable in 10-teamers? Everyone dumped on him today 🙁
|
| 4:04 |
: Definitely.
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| 4:04 |
: Without question a very good pitcher. His profile is slightly unusual which tends to produce strong takes.
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| 4:05 |
: Next week everybody will be singing his praises
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| 4:05 |
: I should note, I haven’t actually read the pieces yet, but I did see a few of them drop on tweeters |
| 4:06 |
: I look at Soroka as a sort of harder-throwing Kyle Hendricks… without the healthy track record though.
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| 4:06 |
: Why would the expansion of rosters to 26 players require the team be comprised of 13 pitchers and 13 position players. That seems to give an advantage to deep-pocketed teams that can go out and buy a Gerrit Cole and penalize a team that uses a team of out-getters. I think 14 pitchers and a roster of 12 flexible position players should not be prohibited. Your take? Likewise the limited expansion of rosters in September benefits the teams with deep-pockets, who can sign 5 strong starters and disadvantages teams with alternate strategies. Thanks for the discussion.
|
| 4:07 |
: So this is a multi-layered pie. Manfred and friends HATE the bullpenization of baseball because it drives longer games. They want exhausted bullpens. They want to force starters to throw 7 efficient innings. That’s their ideal meta.
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| 4:08 |
: Manfred has proven again and again he believes a shorter, crisper game is a better game. Frankly, I’m not inclined to disagree in a broad sense. The best “normal” games fly through 7 innings then you see a couple elite relievers and drive home.
|
| 4:10 |
: On the MLBPA side, they’re happy to oblige because positions players make more money than fungible relievers – even 13th man-type position players. A few teams might find their way around it with pinch-runner types, but even that isn’t a bad thing to the union.
|
| 4:10 |
: They probably also see it as an obvious path to adding the DH in the NL which is viewed as a positive by the bean counters if not all the players. |
| 4:10 |
: Is Raul Mondesi just a more expensive Jonathan Villar?
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| 4:11 |
: I’ve seen him go after Villar so… no.
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| 4:12 |
: He went 4 picks after Mondesi in my TGFBI
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| 4:12 |
: There is an 8 pick gap between them across all TGFBI leagues though
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| 4:12 |
: Would you keep Pressly in a 12 team AL only with holds?
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| 4:12 |
: Without knowing more about your opportunity costs, yes. |
| 4:13 |
: What do you get if you *don’t* keep Pressly (bear in mind, I might not see your response)
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| 4:13 |
: I’m scouring the player pool for one last bench spot for a SP in a points league. Which 1 of Loaisiga, P Sandoval, Pivetta, Eovaldi, Nelson or Velasquez would you take?
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| 4:13 |
: I’d want Eovaldi personally
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| 4:13 |
: I’m pretty convinced of a rebound.
|
| 4:13 |
: Pivetta did the pitch lab thing so that’s interesting too.
|
| 4:14 |
: A lot of people seem to like Sandoval. |
| 4:14 |
: who do you like more this yr tommy edman or Kevin newman? Like both?
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| 4:14 |
: I really like Edman though I have some concerns about role. At least until injuries crop up. I kinda think Newman is really bland, but we know he’ll play a lot. Might get getting a sort of hyped “peak” Freddy Galvis.
|
| 4:15 |
: Fewer Ks
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| 4:16 |
: Keeper league where keepers get more expensive each year, which side would you prefer in Grandal and Adell for Will Smith (C) and Ramon Laureano. Would only be able to keep Grandal for 2020 and the others through 2022.
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| 4:16 |
: Looks like a fair trade, assuming you’re contending now.
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| 4:16 |
: Who would you say is the single most polarizing player in terms of the fantasy community’s expectations about that player’s 2020 production? |
| 4:18 |
: A few candidates: Victor Robles, Ketel Marte, Luis Robert, Tim Anderson
|
| 4:18 |
: At least on the hitter side, seems like speed traits lead to disparate valuations.
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| 4:19 |
: Basically any good young pitcher too
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| 4:20 |
: If they don’t have much of a track record, then they’re kind of like the mystery box. They could be anything. Even a good pitcher.
|
| 4:20 |
: Any thoughts on Eduardo Rodriguez this year? The knee thing seems minor and okay, but I haven’t heard much about him coming into the season. Is he sort of WYSIWYG now?
|
| 4:20 |
: Haven’t seen WYSIWYG since my software sales days! |
| 4:21 |
: I have some lingering trepidation about that time his knee fell off his body. That is weird.
|
| 4:21 |
: And I don’t really expect much in terms of growth or decline
|
| 4:21 |
: But!
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| 4:22 |
: That really doesn’t mean anything in this age of pitching labs
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| 4:22 |
: We have to be on our toes these days
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| 4:22 |
: No saying “player is X” and holding off on updating until next winter. |
| 4:22 |
: Pressly is 1.00 in a 260.00 budget
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| 4:22 |
: Thumbs up
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| 4:22 |
: Last keeper, same cost, Fried or Gallen?
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| 4:23 |
: Same asset class. LOVE them both.
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| 4:23 |
: I’m a little more partial to Gallen.
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| 4:23 |
: Can Cavan Biggio bring his strikeouts down? Why was it so low in AAA last year?
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| 4:23 |
: He doesn’t whiff often and has elite plate discipline. Those skills are traits that terrorize Triple-A pitchers.
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| 4:24 |
: I do think he *could* shave his strikeout rate into the 17-19% range, but that’s one of the best case scenarios.
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| 4:24 |
: That’s basically where he turns into an almost-Alex Bregman
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| 4:25 |
: Which IS a possible outcome. Don’t let anybody tell you otherwise. Just, uh, don’t let yourself fall in love with that particular dream.
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| 4:25 |
: Reasonable trade targets for Severino in a dynasty league? I have sevy and want to stay competitive for at least beyond this year
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| 4:25 |
: Had a Twitter follower ask if he could trade his Sevy for Madrigal and Ian Anderson
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| 4:25 |
: I said yes
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| 4:26 |
: Do they use the same balls in ST as in the regular season? If so, when can we get some insight into the juiced or not juiced issue?
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| 4:26 |
: Great question, and I’ve been trying to find out (to no avail)
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| 4:26 |
: I have anecdotally heard that the ball is very juicy still.
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| 4:27 |
: And if you really want a deep anecdote, Myles Straw already has a home run
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| 4:27 |
: will you be doing the daily grind contests on fantasy draft again this yr?
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| 4:27 |
: I’m not sure. I’m meeting in person with Appelman in mid-March, and I’ll be sure to discuss it with him.
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| 4:28 |
: We will be doing some kind of contest. And I do hope to continue with FDraft. They’re my favorites at the moment.
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| 4:28 |
: Julio Urias is a top-___ pitcher if he gets 135+ innings
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| 4:28 |
: How much fantasy value will Dustin May have in 12-team leagues this year?
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| 4:28 |
: Oh, the Dodgers rotation. Might as well add Strip to this little chat too
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| 4:29 |
: Pegging a tight value on any of them is a fool’s errand.
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| 4:30 |
: Where I find myself targeting them is when I’ve accumulated volume but have some doubts about quality. Like Lance Lynn, Corey Kluber, or Kyle Hendricks types
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| 4:30 |
: Or if you missed on basically all the aces and want to cobble some kind of nightmare rotation out of Anibal Sanchezes and Mitch Kellers
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| 4:31 |
: Severino is getting TJ–just announced on MLB Trade Rumors.
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| 4:31 |
: Try to keep up!
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| 4:31 |
: I love Myles Straw
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| 4:31 |
: How do you change roster strategy for H2H categories leagues? I’m struggling with my keeper decision. Can keep 4 of: Bellinger ($8), Alonso ($4), Eloy ($5), Lux ($4), Snell ($3), Bieber ($11). We have 3 year contracts, so Lux is probably out for me. Main question is whether to prioritize H or P in H2H cat? Right now leaning Belli, Alonso, Eloy, Snell. Should I swap Biebs for Eloy?
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| 4:32 |
: I tend to try to max pitchers, but I do this by just dedicating a TON of budget to them.
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| 4:32 |
: League depth matters too. The shallower the league, the less valuable are hitters.
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| 4:33 |
: I’d strongly consider Bieber over Eloy. Can’t make that decision for you though without knowing more.
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| 4:33 |
: You on Cease in 10 team leagues? Trying to find replacements for my multiple Sevy shares in redraft… Thanks!
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| 4:33 |
: Oh boy, that’s pretty shallow for Cease.
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| 4:33 |
: As a late-round dart throw, sure.
|
| 4:33 |
: Just be prepared to move on
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| 4:33 |
: Am I worth $7 in a h2h $260 league even though the closer role hasnt been confirmed?
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| 4:33 |
: Yes
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| 4:34 |
: He’s either a $4 0 SV guy, a $12 10-15 SV guy, or a $20 elite closer
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| 4:34 |
: Even if the outcomes skew towards the low end, chasing the upside is worth the modest investment
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| 4:34 |
: do you stream in 12-team roto (w/IP limit) or just h2h?
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| 4:34 |
: More in Roto than H2H tbh
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| 4:35 |
: That relates back to the aforementioned H2H strategy though.
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| 4:35 |
: I play SP quality. And by being very good, they also get you quantity most weeks.
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| 4:35 |
: Assuming the ball is still juiced, how does that change your fantasy strategy? Ground ball pitchers? Is is better to chase power hitters?
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| 4:36 |
: It’s around the margins where players are most affected. Pitchers like Spencer Turnbull and Trevor Williams could be sneaky-solid in a not-juiced scenario. Hitters like Luis Arraez can suddenly learn power traits in a juiced world.
|
| 4:37 |
: So if I knew the ball was juiced, and I don’t really, then I’d be a little more willing to invest in high PA, fringe bats like Nick Ahmed.
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| 4:37 |
: Does Alex Dickerson get regular playtime or is he platooned…assuming he stays health?
|
| 4:37 |
: He really shouldn’t.
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| 4:38 |
: Pence platoon I guess is the plan right now?
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| 4:39 |
: I know you like to load up on top end SP in H2H categories leagues but does that change in daily leagues when opponents can stream SP to be competitive in non-ratio categories?
|
| 4:39 |
: Nope.
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| 4:40 |
: I welcome my opponents to mangle their pitching to chase Ks and W. I’ll just go and swipe HR or SB while they’re not looking.
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| 4:40 |
: While it’s not always true, my H2H best practices are to reinforce strengths
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| 4:41 |
: Which usually means you have a power team or a SP-heavy team.
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| 4:41 |
: I find the pitchers are more reliable, strangely.
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| 4:41 |
: Brad….aside from the obvious. Whom most likely tp fetch 20 steals?
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| 4:41 |
: Jon Berti!
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| 4:42 |
: Myles Straw and Roman Quinn are perennial SB sleepers. Either could suddenly spawn into everyday roles.
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| 4:42 |
: Are you making a point to draft both Victor Robles and Hansel Robles on all your teams? DOBLE-ROBLE!!!!
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| 4:42 |
: I… am not.
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| 4:42 |
: In an OBP league, is Mallex Smith valuable?
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| 4:42 |
: Mallex is a Billy Hamilton redux.
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| 4:43 |
: He’s better than Hamilton for fantasy purposes (maybe not in reality)
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| 4:43 |
: But you still need him to be a bench player you call in for especially tasty matchups and on travel days.
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| 4:44 |
: I was a Mallex truther last year, and I learned the hard lesson that he WILL lose you leagues even as you win SBs
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| 4:44 |
: Any predictions on how COVID-19 will affect the season?
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| 4:45 |
: I can ask some CDC friends
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| 4:46 |
: Seems like it could crush attendance at the very least.
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| 4:46 |
: They’re already talking about cancelling the Olympics
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| 4:46 |
: How high would you draft Gallo?
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| 4:46 |
: OBP, you can defend a Top 15 selection. Still easy Top 40 in AVG.
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| 4:46 |
: That’s special power
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| 4:47 |
: No need to ponder juiced or unjuiced baseballs with Gallo
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| 4:47 |
: Pressly + Pomeranz a tier above everyone else for dedicated Holds?
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| 4:48 |
: No, there are others in that mix. Seranthony, Clase, Karinchak, Munoz, Lugo, Betances, Ginkel, some others I’m forgetting
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| 4:48 |
: Darvish or Giolito?
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| 4:48 |
: Darvish for me
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| 4:48 |
: I know casual (low/no $) leagues will never have 100% fully engaged owners the whole season long… but have you found league structure levers you can pull to at least help incentivize people to stay up on their teams?
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| 4:50 |
: yes, I have. Paying more spots or introducing buy-in credits for not-bad finishes can help. Those are especially helpful in keeper settings where teams that limp through April/May would otherwise have an incentive to trade all of their studs for one good keeper.
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| 4:51 |
: A more extreme approach is to just proactively replace anybody who ghosts without good reason.
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| 4:51 |
: What are your thoughts on using platoons in fantasy?
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| 4:52 |
: Depends how you mean it. I’m not super keen on using the actual MLB platoons as you can’t always avoid bad matchups. But I’ll take a couple strong side platoons from different teams and decide who has the best matchup that day.
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| 4:53 |
: WTF is a Ginkel?
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| 4:53 |
: Ginkel Biloba
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| 4:53 |
: helps with memory
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| 4:53 |
: If keeping Trout, Betts and Story already, is it a foregone conclusion that you’re making Sale your last keeper over Alonso?
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| 4:53 |
: No, it’s not.
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| 4:53 |
: Especially based on future keeper rules and where you draft.
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| 4:53 |
: So everyone is talking about Soroka today. Do you believe in him? I can keep him as a 10th rounder in a H2H 12×12 where K/9 is a cat. Other options Carrasco, Montas and Gore.
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| 4:54 |
: I believe in him. I discussed him in slightly more detail earlier.
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| 4:54 |
: Do you think Joey Votto will have a rebound this year. Would he be a nice late round pick regardless?
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| 4:54 |
: No I don’t. He is still a fine CI patch for his lineup role – especially in OBP.
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| 4:54 |
: Hurting for SP in my dynasty league, just had Severino and Mikolas go down. Which two (or three) of these guys would you try to grab as replacements? Anibal Sanchez, Wade Miley, Jordan Montogomery, Austin Voth, JA Happ, Homer Bailey, Matt Shoemaker, Alex Young, Chris Bassitt, Zach Eflin, Rick Porcello, Tony Gonsolin |
| 4:55 |
: Well, I happen to like several of them. I think Anibal, Monty, and Happ are the best of the bunch – not necessarily in that order.
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| 4:55 |
: What’s Garret Cooper’s story? Is he going to get some burn time?
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| 4:55 |
: Depends on if Aguilar can rebound from BlandLand
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| 4:55 |
: If you were watching a baseball game at a zoo, where the players were monkeys and ostriches, would you heckle?
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| 4:56 |
: Would you like to write scenarios for my podcast? Seriously.
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| 4:56 |
: I enjoy the highly custom league series… would love to see a write-up on a good setup for a first league for kids. My son is 7 and we don’t let him use the internet, but I know he’d love a basic version that I could administer online and let him learn the ropes.
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| 4:57 |
: That IS a good idea. I’ll try to remember to brainstorm something. Feel free to remind me in late-March-ish because I will forget.
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| 4:57 |
: I let way too much real life crap get added into my March schedule
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| 4:57 |
: Is using a real life C tandem a viable strategy in leagues with GP limits or am I better off throwing away 40 GP in my C spot?
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| 4:58 |
: That is an exception, especially when teams seem to have 2 good C. Grandal-Barnes a couple years back is an example
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| 4:58 |
: Grandal went off and Barnes quickly became a cut.
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| 4:58 |
: “H2H 12×12” is giving me a panic attack
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| 4:58 |
: Uhhhhhh
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| 4:58 |
: Anytime you get beyond 6×6, the scoring is broken.
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| 4:59 |
: Will it be a platoon mess this year for the Yankees corner infielders
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| 4:59 |
: I think they’ll just pick out winners and losers.
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| 4:59 |
: I eat podcasts for breakfast
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| 4:59 |
: Who is this mets SP prospect Peterson? Is he worth tracking?
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| 5:00 |
: Depends on the format. I grabbed him in the ProspectsLive Draft and Hold dynasty because I think he’ll put up some boring volume starting as soon as this year.
|
| 5:00 |
: Probably a back-end arm though.
|
| 5:00 |
: Time to wrap it up. I have packing to do.
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| 5:00 |
: Here’s a toughy: 10-team 5×5 with 9 keepers forever. Locks are Betts, Lindor, Soto, Arenado. Remaining 5 are a pool of Baez, Yordan, Mondesi, Sale, Bieber, Castillo, Clevinger. Also Luis Robert and Gavin Lux in there…
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| 5:01 |
: Mondesi, Yordan are locks
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| 5:01 |
: I probably do Clevinger, Castillo, Bieber. Cutting Baez, Sale, and Robert hurts though.
|
| 5:02 |
: Robles OR Pham in a H2H categories league?
|
| 5:02 |
: I like Pham as a little more bankable
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| 5:02 |
: I want V. Robles’ steals, but the 0th percentile exit velocity has me concerned about him hitting. Thoughts?
|
| 5:03 |
: Those are basically my thoughts. I’m very confident in him improving long term, I’m less comfortable right now.
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| 5:04 |
: cutting Sale for Clevinger is a bold play, cotton
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| 5:05 |
: I guess. I dunno. It’s all the same asset class among those pitchers so you can easily justify any choice. The good news is they’re all great so if they’re healthy, then you win!
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| 5:07 |
: My personal thought process was because they’re similar now and Sale’s long term prognostication is worst of the group (mostly due to age more than the lingering injury concerns), we might as well think about the future a bit.
|
| 5:07 |
: McMahon supposedly to play everyday at 2B according to the Rockies. Safe to move Hampson down the ranks a lot? Or will he will get enough utility PAs to not be affected too much with a full time McMahon at 2B?
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| 5:07 |
: I didn’t understand why Hampson was up the rankings in the first place.
|
| 5:07 |
: Really made no damned sense.
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| 5:08 |
: I get you want to catch surprise starters at Coors Field, but then he should be priced like the best bench player.
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| 5:08 |
: Alright, I’m out. Good game.
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