Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 10/9/2018
by Brad Johnson
October 9, 2018
Great chat today. Here’s the transcript. Anyone wanna do me a favor and note down everything I said was going to be a future article?
| 3:55 |
: We’ll get this started in a couple minutes.
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| 3:56 |
: I ask that you reserve your keeper questions until a more appropriate time. If you have to make them in October, by all means ask away.
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| 3:56 |
: But in general, you should wait to make those decision closer to your deadline. No need to fuss about it now.
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| 3:57 |
: Let’s have some fun with meatier topics, maybe get a little back and forth going.
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| 3:58 |
: What’s Wander Franco up to right now?
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| 3:58 |
: Whence does Franco Wander?
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| 4:00 |
: I video scouted him earlier this season on twitter, caught some heat for it
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| 4:00 |
: Because I didn’t simply gush about him being the greatest prospect ever to prospect
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| 4:01 |
: There were some rough edges that could be smoothed out to his swing. All-in-all, everything is very encouraging.
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| 4:01 |
: For dynasty, I’d view him as a top 5 prospect
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| 4:01 |
: Deep dynasty I should add
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| 4:02 |
: Who are you higher on in 2019: Freeland or Marquez? What is each pitchers upside – Top 20?
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| 4:02 |
: Sure, they both have top 20 upside
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| 4:02 |
: They’re very different pitchers
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| 4:03 |
: And Coors is historically unkind to even mild changes in talent
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| 4:03 |
: Nobody has ever pitched well there for more than maybe 2 or 3 seasons
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| 4:04 |
: I like Freeland’s elite-ish command more than German’s I’ll overpower ya mentality
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| 4:04 |
: Dynasty OBP 5×5 roto. I know this sounds weird, but if I can get top dollar for Altuve, is now the time to sell? Earl Weaver always said better to sell a year too early than a year too late.
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| 4:04 |
: Also, thanks for the advice all year. I didn’t win all my trades but I did win my league!
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| 4:05 |
: You might as well sell if you can get a top 5 valuation for a guy who’s showing some signs of breaking down
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| 4:05 |
: I think you waited the year too long
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| 4:05 |
: Don’t worry, it’s not like you traded Mookie Betts for him (I did!)
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| 4:05 |
: How crazy is the Khris Davis batting average thing?
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| 4:06 |
: The craziest. I was keeping track of what he needed to do on twitter. And he did it!
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| 4:06 |
: Do yu see a Darvish rebound next year? I have him for 12 bucks in a 10 team H2H and I’m wondering if he’s more of a #2 or #3.
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| 4:06 |
: That’s a possible outcome. Remember, when it comes to forecasting, there is no such thing as a knowable future.
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| 4:07 |
: For Darvish, potential outcomes range from “does not pitch” to “top 10 SP.”
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| 4:07 |
: I would not spend $12 to keep him today. Maybe we get encouraging news by February when it’s time to make that decision
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| 4:07 |
: Do you think JDM is a repeat elite stud in 2019, or should we start worrying about age / regression?
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| 4:08 |
: I’m unconcerned about JDM. He’s never going to age. At least not at the plate.
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| 4:08 |
: Seriously though, injury risk increases with every season, but he’ll remain a monster until something breaks
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| 4:08 |
: Fun dreaming about Wander Franco, but when so much of the value comes from how good *for how young* he is it’s just so speculative.
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| 4:09 |
: I’m not sure I agree. At least as a hitter, I’m confident he could hold his own in the majors right now.
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| 4:09 |
: Not saying he’d Juan Soto, but a 85 wRC+ from a 17-year-old isn’t anything to sneeze at
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| 4:10 |
: Who has a better hall of fame case: Buster Posey or Yadier Molina? Obviously Posey still has some more years left
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| 4:11 |
: This highlights one of the problems with WAR.
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| 4:11 |
: They both obviously fall waaaay short by that measure
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| 4:11 |
: However, I also think they should both be considered shoo-ins
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| 4:12 |
: They were the MVPs of their teams through some long postseason runs. That deserves enshrinement. (Also why I think Chase Utley should be a first ballot HoFer).
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| 4:13 |
: Chat questions are coming in slowly so feel free to respond to the prompts if you’re hanging around. I’ll post some stuff up
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| 4:13 |
: Otherwise Rocco is getting a billion questions answered
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| 4:14 |
: Our 5×5 leagues is moving from BA as one hitting category to OPS. What are some of the adjustments in thinking I should start making to ace my draft?
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| 4:14 |
: The main thing is with power and speed
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| 4:14 |
: The Joey Gallos gain a category
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| 4:14 |
: The Dee Gordons lose a category
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| 4:15 |
: Most of the less extreme players don’t see much change in their value
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| 4:15 |
: you could probably jury rig together a spreadsheet to highlight which other players benefit a lot (like Khris Davis)
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| 4:15 |
: just saw your tweet about how slow this is but so many questions I’d ask are just annoying league-specific ones
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| 4:16 |
: Feel free to respond to others questions then, I’d like to get some give and take going but y’all are conditioned to ask a question then wait patiently
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| 4:17 |
: I am probably out of the running in my league for the next year at least, after trading away draft picks this year trying to three-peat.
My league has 5 free keepers and lets us keep 3 minors guys indefinitely until you bring them up–they are basically extra keepers. So e.g. I have Acuña in a minors slot and he doesn’t count as one of the five “real” keepers. I also have Wander Franco. Is it crazy to trade Betts for Soto–who is also still in his minors slot? Then try to promote those three (Soto, Acuña, Franco) within a year of each other. |
| 4:17 |
: I think you’re overthinking it. And how big is your league?
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| 4:17 |
: If we’re talking a relatively vanilla 12-team format, you can compete with Betts, Acuna, and nothing else
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| 4:18 |
: Were you surprised by Atros trouncing of the Indians? I knew they were good but I didn’t think they were that much better than Cleveland.
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| 4:18 |
: I think it was a pretty even matchup that completely fell apart with the Cleveland bullpen
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| 4:18 |
: FYI Utley has accumulated 63.2 WAR. Trout 64.7.
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| 4:18 |
: I mean, Mike Trout is an active Hall of Famer already
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| 4:19 |
: 10-team league. The minors aspect is really entertaining as we all overvalue the minors guys we spotted to the point where I don’t know that Betts for Soto would be accepted.
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| 4:19 |
: Oh geez, do not give up on 2019. You should have no problem contending with Betts, Acuna, and whatever you can scrape off the waiver wire
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| 4:19 |
: Other than Vladito, who are the prospects I should have on my radar in redraft or keep-few leagues?
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| 4:19 |
: Eloy
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| 4:19 |
: Senzel has some rebound potential if you already have him
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| 4:20 |
: I’m wary of paying for a head injury though
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| 4:20 |
: Wander Franco if you’re willing to be patient for a few years
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| 4:20 |
: Alex Kirilloff looked interesting, Royce Lewis. I haven’t dug into it for non-deep dynasty yet.
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| 4:21 |
: Is max muncy a true talent 140 wrc+?
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| 4:21 |
: I wouldn’t go that far
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| 4:21 |
: He’s good though
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| 4:21 |
: Believe it or not Omar Narvaez had the 5th best wOBA among C in 2018 and has a career .366 obp! Do you see him as the CWS’ primary starter next year and top-10 C in OBP leagues possible?
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| 4:22 |
: Not really. I don’t think you can count on more than 100 games.
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| 4:22 |
: I mean, I guess that puts him near the fringes of the top 10.
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| 4:22 |
: I don’t think you should go out of your way to pay for him. Nothing wrong with last picking him
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| 4:22 |
: Do you forgive bryant for a bad 2018 and view him as a first rounder again after the offseason, or do you worry the shoulder will linger?
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| 4:23 |
: I’m basically projecting the same in 2019 as I projected for 2018
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| 4:23 |
: But here’s the kicker, those aren’t first round numbers anymore
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| 4:23 |
: Too many guys broke way the fuck out
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| 4:24 |
: We don’t have to worry too much right now, but I suspect a 4th round valuation would be on target
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| 4:24 |
: Most chatters don’t let chattees do stuff. There was one time ~five years ago, with a different chat client, when some people were allowed to post without moderation. That happened once and I’m pretty sure it was forcefully kiboshed behind the scenes.
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| 4:24 |
: The issue is usually that too many comments come flying in
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| 4:24 |
: During the season, I’m answering questions from 4:00 for 45 minutes
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| 4:25 |
: then I skip from 4:01 to 4:45 to finish out the chat
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| 4:25 |
: nimmo or muncy in 2019?
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| 4:25 |
: Muncy
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| 4:26 |
: But I am the one who pointed out they’re clones
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| 4:26 |
: Muncy doesn’t have to deal with ShittyField
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| 4:26 |
: Cedric Mullins looks like the starting CF and leadoff man for the O’s next year, what kind of line do you see him posting in a full season?
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| 4:26 |
: He’s an early sleeper for me
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| 4:27 |
: I see potential for a breakout season with just as much potential for a disappoint Kevin Pillar-like batting line
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| 4:27 |
: 20/20 is a potential outcome
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| 4:27 |
: so is 8/8
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| 4:27 |
: Any speculation on closers? Set-up guys who could very well assume the closer role – for those who still count saves that is…
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| 4:27 |
: Let’s not worry about that just yet
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| 4:27 |
: Was Bryant first rounder last year?
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| 4:27 |
: Yes, back end
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| 4:28 |
: Did you guys know it’s pronounced KAI-bosh? That was one of countless words I’ve embarrassed myself with. Several of the others are colors. Sepia, fuchsia, mauve.
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| 4:28 |
: The Athletic (which I’m otherwise a big fan of), has their chats in an unmoderated format, and even though things are pretty tame over there, I greatly prefer this. I can go to a message board or twitter if I want the opinion of randos.
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| 4:28 |
: True
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| 4:29 |
: I’m whipping together a Discord community for just that purpose!
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| 4:29 |
: Except I’m the leader. Ping me privately via an acceptable method of communication if you want in
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| 4:29 |
: got in late here what is topic today? open?
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| 4:29 |
: Macroeconomics of minor league stadium management, applications thereof
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| 4:30 |
: It’s hard enough to know who’s gonna close in late March, let alone now
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| 4:30 |
: Rotoworld has me produce a Saves and Steals column for the annual magazine
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| 4:30 |
: The thing goes out in January but the article is due in early December
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| 4:30 |
: That’s a shit show
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| 4:30 |
: is there any way to access statcast data besides savant?
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| 4:30 |
: Befriend Tango/Mike?
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| 4:31 |
: Going along the same vein of your response on Altuve (i.e. last year was the time to sell him), is now the time to sell Blake Snell? He obviously got some good fortune this year and the control/command still needs some work, but he still looks like a VERY good starter going forward given the stuff he possesses.
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| 4:31 |
: I think it would be foolish not to carefully listen to offers
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| 4:31 |
: My position on guys coming off a career year is I want somebody to feel like they MUST have him
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| 4:32 |
: If I can’t extract a rent, I’m usually not interested in selling
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| 4:32 |
: team needs notwithstanding
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| 4:32 |
: My other approach is to use such players to go after Mike Trout/similar
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| 4:32 |
: how does discord identify who’s talking? in case I need this info next March…
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| 4:32 |
: lel, I haven’t really tested the talking features much. We mostly use it as an open forum
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| 4:33 |
: It’s better Slack
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| 4:33 |
: Do you think that the save category is going to stay viable over next say 5 years?
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| 4:33 |
: That! is a good question
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| 4:33 |
: I think it will. The way we manage the category will change though
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| 4:34 |
: There is merit to relievers pitching better when they know their roles
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| 4:34 |
: The best bullpens typically only have one or two roving late inning guys with the others filling explicit roles
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| 4:34 |
: And I think as players age, they probably benefit more from knowing when they’ll be called upon
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| 4:34 |
: That’s my personal hypothesis. Untested
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| 4:35 |
: What do you make of these Senzel to the OF rumors? If he loses infield eligibility, that hurts him quite a bit (at least in my league).
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| 4:35 |
: On the one hand, yes, he kinda has to go to the OF if he’s going to be a Red
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| 4:35 |
: Suarez ain’t moving at this point. Nor should Peraza. And Gennett might go via FA, but that means at least half a season waiting for a trade
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| 4:36 |
: And Gennett might stay too.
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| 4:36 |
: So… it makes sense for him to try
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| 4:36 |
: In a 5×5 Roto Keep Forever League, who do you like the most for the forseeable future: Jose Ramirez or Bregman?
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| 4:36 |
: John Jaso Jingleheimerschmidt
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| 4:36 |
: You can’t go wrong, but you should pick Ramirez first in 2019.
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| 4:37 |
: By maybe a handful of spots
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| 4:37 |
: One of these seasons, Bregman isn’t going to stumble out of the gate
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| 4:37 |
: And he’ll push for MVP
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| 4:37 |
: What are some of the best minor league stadiums to go to (talking overall fun experience).
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| 4:37 |
: Can’t say I’ve been to many. Durham is great though
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| 4:37 |
: You’ve mentioned some trade strategy stuff previously, like asking for a guy you’re not totally interested in only to indirectly get your actual target into a deal. Any other effective tricks?
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| 4:37 |
: That’s literally 40% of my offseason content.
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| 4:38 |
: Stay tuned
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| 4:38 |
: Not a question, but don’t forget QS as well. Viable option? I think not!
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| 4:38 |
: I will be writing a fervent post about ditching your QS leagues while you have the chance
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| 4:39 |
: It’s time to move back to Ws until we come up with a better stat
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| 4:39 |
: Something like a “quality outing” which includes pitching five innings of 3.50 or better ERA.
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| 4:40 |
: We can bicker over the standards. What we need is to uncouple the QS from the actual “start” concept. Otherwise, it’s super broken
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| 4:40 |
: It was already broken before Openers started happening
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| 4:41 |
: Only like 20 or 25 starters posted notable QS totals. In a 12 team league, that’s like 2 QS-able pitchers per team.
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| 4:41 |
: Ws at least include some gamesmanship with relievers
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| 4:41 |
: And Ryan Yarbrough
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| 4:41 |
: I’ll be looking for the QS vs Ws post as that’s my candidate for my league’s big offseason fight this year.
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| 4:41 |
: I’ve always thought Quality Starts was a silly fantasy stat. Now with fewer and fewer pitchers lasting 6 innings, does QS have a future in fantasy? Do we trend back to wins or is there something else that could replace both?
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| 4:42 |
: How many prospects do you like to roster in deep dynasty, 20 team league with 35 roster spots, during competitive seasons? I’ve been struggling to maintain the right balance of focusing every roster spot on winning while maintaining some prospect capital for the future/roster upgrades
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| 4:42 |
: Oh it’s a challenge. I literally used all of mine this season in 20 team, 45 roster
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| 4:42 |
: I have Lolo Sanchez and 44 MLBers
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| 4:42 |
: Oh, actually I cut Lolo in the last week for Nick Martini
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| 4:42 |
: I have no prospects left!
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| 4:43 |
: It’s ok, I have a dope roster of MLBers. I just can’t make any more trades to non-contenders 🙁
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| 4:43 |
: Will Baltimore “ever again” have a playable pitcher in standard leagues?
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| 4:43 |
: Magic 8 ball says “fuck no”
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| 4:43 |
: Give some hope to a Twins fan. Other than a bad division, what do they have going for them?
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| 4:44 |
: A lot of talent
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| 4:44 |
: So much talent
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| 4:44 |
: They could easily win the division next season
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| 4:44 |
: Remember, basically EVERYTHING went wrong
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| 4:44 |
: All else equal, who do you want for the next 3 years in OBP, SLG, SBN league…Bregman (SS/#B this year, presume 3B next 2) or Giancarlo?
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| 4:44 |
: Bregman
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| 4:44 |
: EZ
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| 4:44 |
: What do you make of Jeff McNeil going forward? Any chance of becoming Daniel Murphy?
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| 4:45 |
: I know that’s a convenient comparison, but I don’t think that’s the transformation he needs
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| 4:45 |
: His GB/FB distribution is fine as is
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| 4:45 |
: What he needs to do is make more authoritative contact
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| 4:45 |
: I’m hopeful, but I’m not holding my breath
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| 4:45 |
: I wish he were a Red
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| 4:46 |
: or a Rockie
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| 4:46 |
: Jeff McNeil the Rockie is the soggiest dream of all
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| 4:46 |
: by the way how the hell did we only use Yarbrough for like 10 innings this year in a W league
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| 4:46 |
: Because I really undermanaged the hell out of my team
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| 4:46 |
: And y’all follow my lead when it comes to trendy trends
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| 4:47 |
: In all seriousness, I never had a handle on when the Rays were going to use which Follower
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| 4:47 |
: Think Tyler white has done enough to get himself in the Astros (or someone else’s) lineup next year?
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| 4:47 |
: Absolutely. He’s going to start barring something unforeseeable
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| 4:47 |
: And he’s right-handed Nimmo/Muncy
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| 4:47 |
: Turns out it’s a common profile all of a sudden
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| 4:48 |
: Damn I thought that QS question was a good one
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| 4:48 |
: Twas, but you got beat to it
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| 4:48 |
: The trouble we had with Wins (well one of them) was the extra value to the great-rate-stat relievers, non-closers.
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| 4:48 |
: Is that a problem?
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| 4:49 |
: I’ve been hyping those guys with back when Mike Adams and Sergio Romo were the studliest non-closers in the world
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| 4:49 |
: Shocking the Romo, Luke Gregerson, and David Robertson are still around
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| 4:49 |
: Used to be like 5 non-closers worth owning, and those were 3 of them
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| 4:49 |
: Keep Jaime Barria for $4 in deep AL standard 5 x 5 keeper league?
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| 4:49 |
: Yea, probably
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| 4:49 |
: What site’s park factors do you use? Are there reliable PFs for handedness?
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| 4:50 |
: Check out FanGraphs Guts! (google it, I’m lazy)
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| 4:50 |
: What about saves and steals as categories? They have much greater importance in fantasy than real baseball. Is there a solution to chasing mediocre one category saves and steals guys halfway through the season? That’s always been my least favorite part of 5×5. Maybe more categories?
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| 4:50 |
: It sounds like what you want is a points league
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| 4:50 |
: There is a strong philosophical reason to have diverse stats tracked for 5×5 roto
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| 4:51 |
: the less the categories correlate, the more important your personal management decisions become
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| 4:51 |
: There’s no point having a 5×5 league that accurately tracks a player’s real world value
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| 4:51 |
: Incidentally, that’s why I love batting average for fantasy but don’t even look at it for real world discussions
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| 4:52 |
: Where would you draft Acuña and Vlad in a brand new dynsasty league?
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| 4:52 |
: Trout, Betts, Acuna, Soto, Vlad, Bregman, Ramirez are the top 7 in some combination. I am unsure specifically.
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| 4:53 |
: I don’t think there is a “wrong” answer. Acuna is 1-3. Vlad is somewhere 4-7 imo.
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| 4:53 |
: Target Rays “bulk” guys like Chirinos and Yarbrough in AL keeper roto leagues (W,K, ERA, WHIP, SV)?
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| 4:53 |
: As long as you aren’t paying a lot
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| 4:54 |
: Now is the time to do it too
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| 4:54 |
: Wait until everybody realizes how many wins Yarbrough got
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| 4:54 |
: Tuck this tactic away from draft day in auction leagues – early nominate Followers like Yarbrough
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| 4:55 |
: Watch opponents piss away $6
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| 4:55 |
: Laugh maniacally
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| 4:55 |
: For the guy who asked about minor league parks, I haven’t been to a ton, but Charlotte and Reading are both great and worth a stop if you’re in either of those areas.
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| 4:55 |
: I too traded Mookie for Altuve. Le sigh.
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| 4:55 |
: *passes the hooch*
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| 4:56 |
: For me it’s less about the categories mirroring their true value in real baseball, more about what they force you to do strategy-wise.
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| 4:56 |
: There are so many variations of fantasy baseball, all of which coax different strategic processes
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| 4:56 |
: I suggest finding those that fit your strengths and/or are the most fun for you
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| 4:57 |
: Don’t play 5×5 just because it’s the standard
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| 4:57 |
: I avoid redrafts because I like trades (they basically don’t happen in industry redrafts)
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| 4:58 |
: And I avoid weekly because I’m a high effort guy. I go absolutely mad when Trevor Story’s elbow goes limp on Monday in week 25 right after lineups set
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| 4:58 |
: I want to try to ride some scrub SS to victory
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| 4:58 |
: Have to disagree on QS. My league has wins, saves, holds–and QS, which gives a category to some (but not all) starters who are remarkable in a way that every real team needs a little bit of, just like, closers and elite set-up guys as vs ordinary relievers. Meanwhile everyone earns wins …
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| 4:59 |
: I’ll say this, QS can be viable in a sufficiently small league
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| 4:59 |
: I tend to play 12 team and larger where is just doesn’t work
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| 4:59 |
: why OPS leagues then, not that I mind my life being easier
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| 5:00 |
: If you’re referring to our league having OPS, I made it back before I realized AVG was good because it wasn’t correlated with HR
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| 5:00 |
: And I never changed it
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| 5:00 |
: Isn’t Jeff McNeil the Rockie basically just DJ LeMahieu? Empty-average guy who doesn’t strike out very much and plays average-ish defense at 2b.
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| 5:00 |
: DJLM is a deeply weird hitter
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| 5:01 |
: So while sort of true, McNeil is a much less unusual talent. He’s an extremely balanced spray hitter
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| 5:01 |
: DJLM is a oppo-field machine with the body of a 35 HR hitter
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| 5:01 |
: I’m still waiting for him to realize he can be Matt Carpenter
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| 5:01 |
: Do you see the Indians resigning Brantley despite his age and defensive decline? If not, who’d want him? Progressive field really boosts left handed bats, no? Could he be this years’ Moustakas / Cobb ?
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| 5:02 |
: I think it’s very possible he’s re-signed
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| 5:02 |
: The market has adjusted such that players of his ilk and age will probably go in with very humble demands
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| 5:02 |
: Like 2-years, $12MM
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| 5:03 |
: At that point, we as fantasy players should be hoping for the Indians, Reds, White Sox, Phillies, etc.
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| 5:03 |
: Any friendly park basically
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| 5:03 |
: Not that any of those are great fits
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| 5:03 |
: Can’t rule ’em out
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| 5:03 |
: Is Mondesi going to be worth the hype? Is now a perfect sell high moment if you have him stashed in dynasty?
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| 5:03 |
: Almost
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| 5:03 |
: This offseason, but ya gotta wait for someone like Jeff Sullivan to rant about how special he is
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| 5:04 |
: btw, no matter what anybody says, the comp is not Francisco Lindor.
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| 5:04 |
: That’s paywalled. I put forth his actual comp
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| 5:04 |
: 100% confidence
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| 5:04 |
: I think I just love fantasy baseball too much. This time of the year where everyone chills out until the post season is over drives me nuts.
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| 5:05 |
: While I’m the topic of shameless self promotion, if y’all help me add more patrons, I’ll be starting up monthly unique fantasy games with $50 cash money prizes
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| 5:06 |
: I’m really hoping we can get some buzz buzzing and get this off the ground by December
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| 5:06 |
: Do we have an answer to why Jose Ramirez had such a low BABIP? It seems too low to just be bad luck, especially for a hitter so elite.
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| 5:07 |
: Yes! This is another article I wrote on my Patreon. Will take me a moment to find it, it’s buried
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| 5:07 |
: ok, bear with me, google is not cooperating. Gonna have to do this manually
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| 5:09 |
: Here we go
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| 5:09 |
: Hiding on May 10 – https://www.patreon.com/posts/18724672
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| 5:09 |
: Basically, BABIP regression for Ramirez should be expected to include fewer HR
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| 5:09 |
: You’re a big Charlie Morton guy. I just won my Dynasty League and he was on the staff as my #4. Now has got to be the time to cash him in for some younger talent, right?
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| 5:10 |
: Yes, if you even can. Might be riding him into the ground due to the retirement rumors
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| 5:10 |
: Will Miguel Sano be a sleeper next year?
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| 5:10 |
: Not if he’s jailed for running over a cop
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| 5:10 |
: Seriously, he ran over a cop
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| 5:10 |
: Sounds like he’ll get away with just paying restitution
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| 5:11 |
: In a H2H, we’ve avoiding QS/W by going with IP, with some streaming coming as a result. Most of the league finds streaming distasteful – thoughts on rule changes to discourage the practice?
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| 5:12 |
: Sounds like a good topic for me to explore later. I need to go through this chat and note all the topics I said I’d cover
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| 5:12 |
: But in short, yes, there are ways to discourage streaming without being too restrictive
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| 5:13 |
: The best is to simply offset IP with stats like ERA and WHIP
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| 5:13 |
: Most rate stats inherently disfavor streaming
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| 5:13 |
: Streaming hasn’t been a clever play in at least half a decade, I see more people lose with it than win (me included, see my home league)
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| 5:14 |
: Seriously, check out what happened when I streamed in the last week
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| 5:14 |
: Keep or sell David Price for $20 in 12-team only (standard 5 x 5)?
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| 5:14 |
: That’s a sell or cut to me
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| 5:14 |
: Because I doubt you get anything back
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| 5:15 |
: Unless somebody is disgusted with Joey Votto or something and you’re willing to bet on a bounce
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| 5:15 |
: Going back to Wander Franco, what’s his path to playing time? Does he get slowed way down being a Ray?
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| 5:15 |
: Probably
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| 5:15 |
: The Rays are so deliberate
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| 5:15 |
: Is The Athletic sustainable?
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| 5:15 |
: Just Sa No
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| 5:15 |
: I think they might make it in some form
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| 5:15 |
: Here’s what I expect to happen
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| 5:16 |
: They’re absolutely right about the business model
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| 5:16 |
: In AdBlock world, you need to design your site around no ads
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| 5:16 |
: Which basically means a subscription or pay-to-play features
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| 5:17 |
: I’m experiencing my own learning experience with Patreon. People aren’t really that keen to pay money to read articles because there are so many free substitutes. So I’m trying to scale up the pay-to-play side with reader leagues, discord, unique fantasy games, swag, etc.
|
| 5:18 |
: The Athletic is taking the other approach. If they can buy enough of the quality content in sports news, they can almost force some people to pay them
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| 5:18 |
: And it convinces their rivals to follow a similar model
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| 5:19 |
: Which reduces the supply of free content to the point where people maybe actually will pay
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| 5:19 |
: But…
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| 5:19 |
: Here’s the wrinkle. I foresee a squeeze in the future when The Athletic’s largesse turns into profit seeking
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| 5:20 |
: They’re paying too many writers too much money.
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| 5:20 |
: So, having killed some of the places their writers would otherwise write, they’re either going to fix wages or start cutting them
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| 5:21 |
: They’re not FanGraphs. They don’t have a benevolent Dark Overlord.
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| 5:21 |
: They’re profit seekers.
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| 5:21 |
: They’ll maximize their subscriber base and then they’ll minimize their costs once they decide new subscribers are too expensive to purchase
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| 5:21 |
: The Athletic will eventually go the newspaper staffing model in that the top clicked writers remain on the payroll, but freelancers end up covering much of the ground.
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| 5:21 |
: (to be clear “Just Sa No” was a reference to the Sano sleeper question, not a typographically errant rejection of the Athletic concept)
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| 5:22 |
: (that was not clear, thanks)
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| 5:22 |
: Are Athletic writers paid on a commission for the number of subs they get?
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| 5:22 |
: No
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| 5:22 |
: I will say that The Athletic is most worth it if you’re a hockey fan. There is no Frangraphs for hockey, and every national and local publication has scaled their hockey coverage way back (which might make sense as a business decision, but sucks as a fan). The Athletic has filled that void and then some. The baseball/basketball/football coverage is a bonus. I still like reading stuff by Eno, too.
|
| 5:23 |
: Man, labrum injuries are scary. I learned my lesson with Michael Brantley. But if you can sit on him for a year, Jesse Winker was looking pretty studly before he went down. What are your thoughts?
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| 5:23 |
: I’m so sad about his injury.
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| 5:23 |
: I’m also worried about the recovery time, but he was about half a month from really reaching critical mass with the fantasy mainstream
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| 5:24 |
: so if you own him in a keeper and the opportunity cost isn’t too high, you’re probably stuck hoping he rebounds cleanly
|
| 5:24 |
: Is Kyle Tucker going to have a spot out of spring training next year, or will he get yoyo-ed up and down?
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| 5:24 |
: I think he’ll have a chance to earn a spot with Tony Kemp taking it if Tucker doesn’t own Spring Training
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| 5:24 |
: Frankly, Kemp not starting is one of the great injustices of the 2018 season
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| 5:25 |
: He’s a top 40? outfielder
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| 5:25 |
: Maybe 50?
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| 5:25 |
: He’s damned good
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| 5:25 |
: (for our purposes, not quite that exceptional in reality)
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| 5:25 |
: Mondesi worth $11 as a 4-5 year contract in my auction league? And what to make of Voit and Mallex for next year?
|
| 5:26 |
: Yes.
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| 5:26 |
: Sure, he might completely zero out on you, but $11 is well worth that risk when $30-$40 upside is in play.
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| 5:26 |
: There’s a lot to be scared about in his profile
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| 5:27 |
: I’m buying Voit and Mallex too
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| 5:27 |
: I mean is there enough offseason interest to pay a permanent beat writer for the Brewers, Royals, Padres, etc.?
|
| 5:27 |
: I couldn’t say tbh
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| 5:27 |
: Mondesi feels so much like Buxton – is Buxton worth $11 on the hope of his $30-$40 upside?
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| 5:27 |
: Entering this season, I would have said absolutely yes
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| 5:28 |
: I still think the answer is maybe yes.
|
| 5:28 |
: But you shouldn’t have to pay that much now
|
| 5:28 |
: Since the Twins didn’t even give him a Sept call up to spur our interest
|
| 5:28 |
: It’s time to bug out folks
|
| 5:28 |
: Thanks for playing
|
| 5:28 |
: This was a good one
|
| 5:28 |
: What do I make of guys like Voit and O’Hearn? Worth keeping in a dynasty at $1 plus normal inflation?
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| 5:29 |
: I don’t know. What’s normal inflation?
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| 5:29 |
: I’d keep ’em for $5 or less probably
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| 5:29 |
: When choosing keepers to you tend to favor a philosophy of A) keeping the most talented players, regardless or cost B) keeping players with the best keeper ‘value’ or C) roster construction based on position strength/weakness vs what would be available in the draft?
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| 5:29 |
: Mix of A and B. Big believer in rostering as many stars as possible in 12 team mixed. As leagues get deeper, a more balanced approach gains value.
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You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Nevermind
Probably not worth the opportunity cost. I’ll be hunting Darvish fliers but I think it’s smart to invest that $12 into bumping up from a $30 player to a $42 player.