Billingsley should be spelled with a K

Chad Billingsley is very good.

In 200 innings in 2008, Billingsley posted a K/BB ratio of 201/80 and had a 3.14 ERA. His 3.35 FIP was 11th lowest of all starters in baseball. And he managed such a low ERA while allowing a BABIP of .313. Billingsley did have a somewhat-low HR/FB, as only 8.4% of his fly balls became homers, but this is not much lower than league average.

In addition to notching a strikeout per inning, Billingsley also managed to induce ground balls in 49% of his balls in play. This is quite a rise from 2007, when 41% of his balls in play were grounders. However, in 2006 his groundball rate was 48.2%, and it’s likely that he will be able to maintain a high GB rate in the future, even if it comes down somewhat from 49%.

Billingsley induced swinging strikes on 10.2% of his pitches, and earned called strikes on 19.3%. Billingsley’s swinging strike percentage is probably for real – he has absolutely filthy stuff. However, his high called strike percentage is somewhat surprising – league average for called strikes is 17.1%, and only ten pitchers had a higher called strike percentage than Billingsley. This is somewhat surprising, as Billingsley didn’t have good control this season, walking 80 hitters.

Thus, it’s questionable whether Billingsley can get as many called strikes next year as he did in 2008. If he gets fewer called strikes, he’s probably going to get fewer strikeouts, too.

However, even though Billingsley walked a high amount of hitters this year, he actually threw a league average amount of balls (36.3%). Thus, the high walk total is somewhat surprising, and seems likely to come down next season.

Finally, it’s worth noting that Billingsley’s innings total increased by a lot last season. In 2007 he threw 147 innings, while in 2008 he threw 212 (between the regular season and post-season). This puts him at risk for the so-called “Verducci Effect,”, named after Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci who found that young pitchers who have a big increase in innings pitched from one season to the next are at risk of injury or performance decline in the following season. Billingsley certainly fits the bill: only 23 years old, Billingsley threw 65 more innings than he did last year.

However, I believe that Billingsley may be less risky than other young pitchers. In addition to not having any injury history, Billingsley has also demonstrated the ability to withstand large – but not too large – workloads over the last few years. Thus, while Billingsley is certainly at risk of being effected by the Verducci Effect, I think his risk may not be too pronounced.

Next season, Billingsley may strike out a few less batters than he did this year, but he should be able to maintain one of the highest strikeout rates for starting pitchers. It’s reasonable to expect his walk rate to also go down, as he didn’t throw that many balls this year, despite his high amount of walks; however, his walk rate will probably remain rather high. He could give up a few less hits next year, as his .313 BABIP is likely to regress to the mean, thus helping his WHIP. Overall, Chad Billingsley has some risk of falling victim to the Verducci Effect, but has among the highest ceilings of any pitcher in fantasy baseball. He may not have the same name-recognition as some other similarly-talented pitchers, and thus has the potential to be somewhat underrated on draft day.