Big Game Garza

Fellow Rays pitcher James Shields may have the nickname “Big Game James,” but Matt Garza is more deserving of the moniker, having absolutely dominated the Red Sox in game seven of the ALCS. Garza’s impressive performance capped an amazing mid-season turnaround, and suggests that he could be on the brink of stardom.

Let’s go back to June 8. Catcher Dioner Navarro visited Garza on the mound during his start in Texas, and the two men began shouting at each other. The altercation continued in the dugout after Garza was removed. He didn’t pitch well that day, and he left the start with a 4.38. However, he had actually been a lot worse than his ERA suggested: in 61 innings to that point, he had an abysmal 34/25 K/BB ratio and had allowed eight homers. He had thrown 60.5% of his pitches for strikes and had gotten swinging strikes on 5.7% of his pitches.

But then something changed.

Notably, Garza saw sported psychologist Ken Ravizza after the game (and later credited him in an interview after game seven of the ALCS). And the results were hard to argue with.

Since June 8, Garza pitched 123 innings (not including the playoffs), and posted a 3.37 ERA – a full run lower than his previous ERA. But remember, Garza’s previous ERA had been unjustly low. Since June 7, though, Garza was legitimately excellent: he posted a 94/34 K/BB ratio while allowing 11 homers. He threw 64.4% of his pitches for strikes, and induced swinging strikes on 8.6% of his pitches. Furthermore, Garza didn’t benefit from a tremendous amount of luck: he allowed a .271 BABIP during this time (low, but remember: the Rays had one of the best defenses in the league), and he allowed 7.7% of his fly balls to become homers.

While his homer rate my rise somewhat (league average is somewhere around 11%), it’s not unreasonable to assume that Garza is likely to maintain his post-June 8 success in 2009. He proved he could handle the big stage at Fenway Park, and he proved he could pitch very well during the last three-and-a-half months of the regular season.

We shall see if he can pitch well over an entire season, but it’s not unreasonable to expect an ERA below 3.50, coupled with ~170 strikeouts and 15-20 wins next season. And, given just how good Garza’s stuff is (anyone who doesn’t realize how good his stuff is should go watch game seven again) – as well as the fact that the Rays should once again have an excellent defense and be one of the league’s best teams – it’s conceivable that Garza could develop further and become a true fantasy ace.