Axford in the Late Innings

With Trevor Time becoming more terrifying than thrilling for the Milwaukee Brewers, the club has recently turned to John Axford to shut the door in the late innings. The 27-year-old righty has a 1.9 Leverage Index this season, highest among regular Brewers relievers. Who is this mustachioed man of mystery?

A Notre Dame product, Axford was once viewed as a high-round draft prospect. The lanky 6-5, 195 pound Canadian featured plus velocity and hard breaking stuff, but his hopes of draft day riches were dashed by Tommy John surgery in late 2003. He missed the 2004 college season and threw all of three frames for the Fighting Irish in 2005. The Cincinnati Reds took a flyer in the 42nd round of the 2005 draft. Here’s how Baseball America described Axford at the time:

RHP John Axford flashed first-round potential in the Cape Cod League in 2003, but had Tommy John surgery that December. He has been slow to come back, missing all of 2004 and working just three innings this spring. He had a low-90s fastball and a plus curveball before he got hurt, though his command was sporadic. Because he’s a redshirt junior, a team could take him as a draft-and-follow.

Axford didn’t sign on the dotted lined with Cincy, instead transferring to Canisius College of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference for the ’06 season. Unfortunately, he walked nearly 10 batters be nine innings for the Golden Griffins, and scouts fled in horror.

Our hero next took the bump north of the border, pitching in the collegiate Western Major Baseball League. Axford K’d plenty of batters in Canada, and the Yankees were impressed enough to give him an opportunity as a non-drafted free agent. But alas, he’d last just one season with the Bombers — Axford whiffed 9.6 batters per nine frames while pitching mostly in the short-season New York Penn League and the Low-A South Atlantic League (he also appeared in the High-A Florida State League and had a cameo in the Triple-A International League), yet he also issued 6.4 BB/9. New York axed Axford in December of 2007, giving him his release.

The Brewers snagged him in March of 2008 and sent him to Brevard County in the High-A FSL. Axford began the year as a starter, but he was shifted to the bullpen when his control woes again surfaced. Overall, he logged 95 innings (14 starts, 12 ‘pen appearances) with rates of 8.43 K/9 and 6.92 BB/9. Only a very low homer rate (0.47 HR/9) kept his FIP out of the fives — it was 4.47.

In 2009, Axford went on a whirlwind tour that took him from High-A to the majors, with stops at Double-A and Triple-A in between. Pitching 68.1 combined innings in the FSL, Southern League and the Pacific Coast League, Axford punched out 11.7 hitters per nine frames. He still handed out free passes generously, with 5 BB/9. Though he didn’t get a ton of grounders (45%, according to Minor League Splits), Axford surrendered 0.4 HR/9. His FIP was in the low threes.

Reaching Milwaukee in September of ’09, Axford posted a 9/6 K/BB ratio in 7.1 IP, allowing three runs while mopping up (0.18 Leverage Index). True to that BA scouting report years earlier, Axford displayed 94 MPH heat and sharp breaking stuff — a mid-80’s slider and an 80 MPH curveball.

Axford opened 2010 back at Triple-A Nashville, where he struck out 19 and walked five in 13.1 innings, coughing up seven runs (three earned). Promoted to the big leagues in mid-May, Axford has a 15/5 K/BB ratio in 12 IP, with four runs allowed. He’s sitting between 95 and 96 MPH with his fastball and getting swings on pitches out of the zone 39.2 percent (it’s an extremely small sample).

Given his Wild Thing Vaughn-like control, Axford’s big league projections aren’t kind. ZiPS thinks he’ll post a 4.78 FIP for the rest of 2010, with 8.74 K/9 and 7.41 BB/9 (be warned, Carlos Marmol — your reign as king of reliever free passes may be over). CHONE forecasted a 4.75 FIP, 8.61 K/9 and 6.07 BB/9 leading up to the season.

That being said, Axford is well worth taking a chance on. He has excellent stuff, misses bats and is owned in just one-quarter of Yahoo leagues. Maybe his tendency to lose the zone will doom him long-term. But Axford’s career path has been anything but conventional, and if he does succeed in a high-leverage role, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time that a reliever emerges out of relative obscurity.