Marking the first major move of the offseason, the Atlanta Braves are all set to acquire Billy Wagner if he passes their physical examination. The deal is for a reported $7 million this year, with a $6.5 million vesting option for 2011 if he finishes 50 games in 2010.

The Braves used Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez in the closers spot last year, but after offering arbitration to both players, it seems unlikely they will return. Signing Wagner would require Atlanta to forfeit their first round pick, but they would receive two others if Soriano and Gonzalez decline arbitration and sign elsewhere.

When I wrote about Wagner in my brief Free Agent Fantasy Impact Series, I said this about his value:

“If Wagner can find himself a closer’s job for a contender next year, he will be in the top half of fantasy closers, if not the top 10. His ability to strike batters out and experience in the ninth inning should allow you to draft him with confidence, but make sure to have a backup option ready in case his elbow explodes again.

If he’s not a closer, he is still draftable in deeper and AL/NL only leagues, as he will give you good strikeouts for the amount of your allotted innings he uses.”

Wagner’s role with the Braves remains clouded. While his contract suggests he would be the full time closer, his recent injuries suggest that the Braves will acquire another late inning option. I believe the Braves enjoyed having a legitimate lefty/righty combo capable of finish games, and would like to have that ability again. Kevin Gregg is a player who comes to mind for the Braves, as his experience finishing games for the Marlins could be attractive to Atlanta. Kiko Calero and Octavio Dotel would also be options for the Braves to acquire.

If the Braves sign another closer, they will likely give both an equal opportunity to win the primary closers job. If Wagner can win it, he is a top half closer as I projected before. The ability to give him plenty of rest by pitching another closer could keep him healthy and fresh, actually helping his value by doing everything possible to ensure his health.

Wagner will always be a source of strikeouts and a low ERA, with a career 11.79 K/9 and 2.39 ERA. His 14.94 K/9 from last year is unsustainable, but dropping the number down to his career average is reasonable. The problems with control (4.60 BB/9) likely stem from his extended time off the field, causing some rust. Like I said before, if he isn’t the official closer, he will still gather some saves and help your fantasy club. If he is the full time closer, 30 saves is well within the realm of possibility.

No one will blame you for being cautious and passing on Wagner on draft day, and I may end being one of those people. For the rest of you, keep an eye on this situation, it could get interesting.

The Mets made a couple of minor moves yesterday, signing Alex Cora and Chris Coste to deals.

As of now, Cora will be the backup middle infielder for the Mets. When Jose Reyes went out with a leg injury, Cora stepped in and ended up playing 82 games for New York last year. In his 308 plate appearance, Cora hit .251/.320/.310 and only scored 31 runs. He stole 8 bases in 11 tries, adding in a single homer and 18 RBI. Cora swings at less than 40% of the pitches he sees, but has an astounding 93.7% contact rate. Simply put, when the man swings, he puts a bat on the ball.

By signing Cora, the Mets are giving themselves an option if they can find a taker for Luis Castillo. Cora would likely step in and start at second base if Castillo is gone, but his fantasy value is minimal, even in deep mixed and NL-only leagues. He isn’t much of a hitter, and won’t contribute much (if anything) to your fantasy squad. Stay far away from Cora, even if he ends up starting.

Coste will likely fight for the backup catcher role with Omir Santos, who is already on the Mets roster. Coste last played for Houston in 2009, but spent the first part of the year with the Phillies. Coste hit .224/.301/.317 with 2 homers in 230 plate appearances last season. The lack of homers from Coste was a surprise, as his previous career low was 5 (in 137 PA’s), and is reflected in his 3.4% HR/FB%. This is likely to rise a bit, but playing in Citi Field won’t help anything.

The Mets are looking at Bengie Molina to fill their starting catcher role, but may stay away from him if the Giants offer him arbitration. Regardless, the Mets will look to bring in another catcher, and may hand the role over to prospect Josh Thole if it comes to it. However, Coste is a great guy to have on a major league roster because he smacks lefties around (.294/.345/.476 with 9 homers in 254 career PA). While he isn’t someone you draft as-is, if the Mets end up handing Coste the starting gig he may be worth a late draft pick in deep leagues if you have room to carry two catchers on your roster, allowing you to play him against southpaws.

Both of the moves the Mets made don’t have a great fantasy impact, but it does show their intentions for the rest of the offseason. And that, my friends, could have quite the impact on your roster.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Since it is turkey day, I figured I’d give thanks to things throughout the fantasy world from last season and the upcoming one.

I’m thankful for…Brandon Webb getting hurt last year. Even though it ruined one of my teams, he will slip past his healthy value allowing owners to snatch him up and hope he’s healthy.

I’m thankful for…Victor Martinez being traded to the Red Sox. With a good lineup around him, it’s hard to imagine the RBI numbers that might show up in the box score next season. If they can add a decent hitting corner infielder, it will be even better.

I’m thankful for…Russell Branyan’s back issues. It may seem cruel that I’m happy about players are getting hurt, but it’s hard not to be. His back slowed him for a couple months, bringing his total numbers down and forcing owners to forget about his hot start a bit. While he won’t be a sleeper again, he may go a round or two later than he should.

I’m thankful for…Luke Scott. Scott’s power streak after coming off of an injury carried my team for a couple weeks. Not bad for a waiver wire pickup.

I’m thankful for…Ryan Franklin’s beard, and saves. Owners will ignore the fluky BABIP and lack of K’s and draft him far too early next year. I’m staying away, thank you very much (see what I did there?).

I’m thankful for…B.J. Upton’s bad 2009. He won’t hit .241 again, I promise. Because he still stole 42 bases, he won’t have sleeper status, but he will be undervalued.

I’m thankful for…Nick Johnson’s healthy ’09. I had Johnson in an OBP league, hoping he’d stay healthy and for once he did. Interested to see where he lands in free agency.

I’m thankful for…Mark Reynolds‘ low batting average. Someone is going to say “no thanks” when they glance at his .260 avg, but I’m more than happy with 40+ jacks and 20+ steals from my third baseman.

I’m thankful for…Curtis Granderson’s struggles against southpaws. Like Reynolds, Grandy’s .249 avg is going to scare other owners off. Dig deeper, and you’ll see he hit .275/.358/.539 with 28 of his 30 homers against right handers. If you’re smart enough to check your matchups and only play Grandy versus righties, he’s extremely valuable.

All that being said, what are you thankful for?

Who should be picked first in 2010 drafts: Zack Greinke or Tim Lincecum? Both pitchers were ridiculously dominant in 2009, and will be fighting to take the baton from Johan Santana as the first pitcher taken.

During drafts last year, Lincecum was taken in the early to mid second round, with Greinke going in the seventh or eighth round. There is no chance that Greinke and Lincecum shouldn’t (I should say won’t, but some people just aren’t intelligent) be the first two pitchers off the board this year, but in what order? Even though I’m sure you’ve seen the numbers plenty of times with the Cy Young awards being handed out recently, let’s review each player’s fantasy numbers from the past season:

Lincecum: 15 W, 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261 K (225.1 IP)
Greinke: 16 W, 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 242 K (229.1 IP)

With those numbers, how are you not a Cy Young winner (let’s not argue about that here). If you want to go a little bit deeper, here are some of my favorite non-fantasy stats for each player:

Lincecum: 10 HR, 47.5% GB%, 2.34 FIP
Greinke: 11 HR, 40% GB%, 2.33 FIP

No home runs, decent ground balls, and nearly identically brilliant FIP’s some how good these guys truly were in ’09. Neither season seemed to be a fluke, so we are going to have to look beyond the player to evaluate who should be drafted first. Both pitchers will put up great strikeouts, ERA’s, and WHIP’s next year, so the Wins will be called into question. To predict wins, we need to examine each team:

Giants – Awful offensive team, getting on-base at a .309 clip, worst in the major leagues. The defense, however, ranked 4th in the league in UZR, and the ballpark is perfect for pitchers. The Giants have money to spend and are actively trying to improve the offense to assist their excellent pitching staff.

Royals – How can I put this nicely? The Royals are bad. The offense is better than the Giants, but not by much. The defense, well, it sucked. Because of some bad contracts, the Royals won’t be able to acquire anyone of significance to help Greinke out.

Due to his situation, Lincecum is likely to get more wins during 2010, pushing him over the top for the first pitcher taken in drafts next year. While his end of season back problems may cause some concern, I’m not worried about them any more than I am any other potential injuries a pitcher can go through. If you’d rather go Greinke, I don’t think anyone will argue with you, but I’m taking Timmy.

Because he did not pitch this season due to elbow and mental issues, Justin Duchscherer will be passed over by many major league clubs as he enters free agency for the first time this offseason. Even though MLB teams may not want him, your fantasy team will.

In 2008, Duchscherer posted a 2.54 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 10 wins in 22 starts before hip issues sidelined him for the last month of the year. While his ERA and WHIP were fantasy gold, it didn’t look to be sustainable. David Golebiewski tackled this after the 2008 season, noting that a 3.69 FIP and .240 BABIP indicate an almost certain rise in his ERA and WHIP. Because he doesn’t strike out too many batters (6.04 K/9 in ’08), his ERA and WHIP encompass most of his value outside of wins.

Fantasy owners should be praying “The Duke” leaves Oakland. If he stays, his wins will likely suffer, stealing away a good chunk of his fantasy value. The A’s have expressed interest in meeting with Duchscherer and bringing him back next year, but Duchscherer needs to decide if that is the best option for him and his family. That is typically the case, but the issue is magnified because he suffers from clinical depression.

If he decides he wants to stay in the Bay Area, the Giants have made public their desire for another starter, and Duchscherer could fit in well there. There haven’t been many rumors surrounding Duchscherer, because teams don’t want to target him if his mind isn’t in the right place. If he is determined to be healthy, there will be many more teams interested, such as the Yankees and Red Sox, who can gamble more than other organizations can.

Because he doesn’t overpower hitters (~86 MPH fastball), the elbow shouldn’t be a problem. If his mental health is right, he should be too. Keep your hopes up that he will leave Oakland, but plan on him staying in the bay area. Whatever team he joins will be better off, and it could mean a couple of more save opportunities for the closer. A’s players should pray it’s with them, because they could use a chance to win more games next year.

Either everyone wanted Adam LaRoche last season, or no one did. It’s hard to tell. LaRoche started the year with the Pirates, and was traded to the Red Sox as the trade deadline was still on the horizon. 9 days later, Boston shipped him off to the Atlanta Braves, bringing LaRoche’s pre free agent career full circle.

LaRoche, a notoriously slow starter, ended the season with 25 homers to go along with a .277/.355/.488 line. He also had 83 RBI and 78 runs, and most importantly, 2 steals. His numbers are right in line with what one should expect from LaRoche, as he hit 25 HR and had an identical wOBA (.357) in 2008. The only year he hasn’t had a line drive percentage below 20% was his rookie year in 2004.

With LaRoche, MLB and fantasy teams know what they are getting: a .275 average with 20+ dingers and 80 RBI. No surprises here. Only problem is, the level of consistency he has is not always rewarded. Teams are more likely to go after a player with the upside for a better season than LaRoche can provide, even if it may come back to bite them in the end.

Because of this, LaRoche’s suitors this offseason will be limited. The most likely scenario is LaRoche going back to the Braves on a one or two-year deal. The Giants could also get in on the action if they decide to non-tender Ryan Garko and spend the bulk of their money in the left field market. After those two, it’s a crapshoot for LaRoche on the open market. I do not foresee any AL team pursuing LaRoche and envisioning him as their everyday first baseman.

If he leaves the Braves, his teammates will notice he is gone more off the field than on it. He was a part of the nice streak the Braves put together to end the year, but he is much better at the end of seasons, anyway. The Braves would likely replace him in house, and the numbers from whoever moves over to first will get a boost from extended playing time.

If LaRoche lands a starting gig, owners should prefer that it is with Atlanta. The talent surrounding him is better than that on the Giants, and the stadium is a little more power friendly. You know what you are getting with LaRoche, so make sure he’s starting before letting him sit on your bench next season.

At 31 years old, Chone Figgins is one of the better free agents available this offseason, coming off a great season for the Angels. In his 2009 campaign, the speedy Figgins stole 42 bases in 59 tries, while hitting .298/.395/.393. He scored 114 runs as the Angels leadoff man, adding in 5 homers and 54 RBI of his own.

Figgins value in recent years has come from his second base and outfield eligibility, but by playing only 2 games at second and 1 in the outfield during the 2009 season, that aspect of his fantasy game is gone. He will simply be a third baseman in your fantasy leagues next year, making his value drop quite a bit. As a second baseman, the stolen bases and average that Figgins provides were perfect, but stolen bases and no power is not what you should be looking for at third base.

Due to his defense, speed, and on-base ability, Figgins will get many offers this offseason, and will have quite a few teams to choose from. The Cubs could come after Figgins hard, and ask him to play second base for them next year. The White Sox are rumored to be interested in Figgins being their left fielder, but they don’t have the money to meet his asking price. If he wants to stay at third base, the Cardinals could be interested, and he could always stay with the Angels. If the Phillies decide to go with Figgins over Adrian Beltre and Pedro Feliz, his value would skyrocket due to the huge amount of talent that would be hitting behind him.

If he leaves the Angels, Kendry Morales and Torii Hunter’s RBI opportunities will go down, with Erick Aybar or Bobby Abreu likely taking over the leadoff duties. Replacing him would not be easy, with Beltre possibly staying in the AL West.

Figgins’ best value would be with the Cubs or White Sox, because moving him away from third base would allow owners to better utilize his skill set at a position where it is a better fit. However, the Phillies are still a great spot for Figgy to end up, but you’ll have to find power in more unconventional ways then before. He will give you steals and a decent average wherever he goes, with his value increasing dramatically in OBP leagues.

After an outstanding half season in 2008, Texas Rangers first baseman Chris Davis generated quite a bit of buzz leading into fantasy drafts in 2009. Davis hit .285/.331/.549 with 17 homers and 55 RBI in 80 games during his rookie campaign in 2008, causing fantasy owners to salivate like Pavlov’s dog. Davis was so hyped, that his status as a sleeper disappeared quickly, and his ADP rose.

Davis was eligible at 1B and 3B in ’09, and was drafted an average of 76th overall, good enough for seventh among 3B and 10th among 1B. Owners, such as myself, saw his raw power dominating in a deadly Texas lineup, and expected his average to hover around the .285 mark he posted in 2008.

What we didn’t see coming, was a devastating start to the 2009 season for Davis. In the first half of the season, Davis hit .202/.256/.415 with 15 homers. The power was still there, but he struck out 114 times in 277 plate appearances. Davis had always been a high strikeout hitter, with his career minor league rate at 25%, and a 29.8% rate in the bigs during ’08. However a 41.2% rate for the first half was scary enough to force the Rangers to consider sending Davis to the minors to work out his problems.

Sure enough, a few days into July, Davis was optioned to Triple-A. He seemed to right the ship while he was there, hitting .327/.418/.521 in 44 games, striking out only 20% of the time and hitting 6 homers. The Rangers felt he was ready to give the bigs another shot, so they recalled him at the end of August. Upon returning, Davis hit .308/.338/.496 with 6 homers in a little over a month. He struck out 25.3% in the second half (36 in 142 PA), much more in line with his career averages. His power may have diminished, but he still drove in 26 runs in 36 games.

What helped bring Davis out of his funk was his ability to simply make contact with the ball. Before being sent down, he has a swing rate of 53.8% and a 22.6% whiff rate according to Trip Somers’ Pitch F/x tool. The same tool said he swung at 52.9% of his pitches after being recalled, with a 14% whiff rate. His opponents pitch selection remained constant in both cases, and after being recalled Davis put fastballs in play at twice the rate that he had before hand.

It all boils down to one question: What should I expect from Davis in 2010? I think that his second half numbers will transfer over into the start of 2010, with his home run rate rising closer to what it was in ’08. To make a quick prediction, I would guess he hits ~.280 with 31 homers if he holds on to the full time 1B job. He may not get to play every day, with the Rangers likely to call up Justin Smoak and looking for a big RH in free agency that could plug the DH role, but I bet they try to find a way to get his bat into the lineup

Davis will be eligible at first base in every league, with added 3B eligibility in others. Due to a scary showing early on last year, he should be falling into a nice ADP where you should feel comfortable snatching him up and playing him everyday.

After proving he can hit against American League pitching, Jason Bay is all set to get paid after a solid fantasy season.

Bay hit .267/.384/.537 with a career high 36 homers and 119 RBI. He also chipped in 100 runs and even provided owners with 13 steals in his first full season with Boston. Many of his fantasy owners may not have been happy with the drop in batting average, at the expense of five extra home runs. I don’t think they minded too much, but when you are counting on a guy to hit .280, you’d always like him to do so.

Because he’s turned in two good offensive seasons in a row, he will be seeking a nice payday before he steps back on the field in 2010. The Red Sox have been rumored to be willing to go as high as $15 million a year, but R.J. Anderson already analyzed why their history does not support that rumor. The Mets, Cardinals, Angels, Giants, Braves and possibly the Yankees will be in the market for a big time left fielder.

The Mets are going to make the strongest push towards Matt Holliday, as will the Cardinals and Bay’s former employers in Boston. The Giants may not be willing to spend the big bucks, but could make Bay feel wanted if they focus on him from the start. The Yankees aren’t likely to go big again this offseason, but Bay’s value could slip into the range where they almost have to get involved.

Where Bay ends up this offseason will be huge for his value. If he stays with a great team like the Red Sox who will surround him with talent, his RBI and run production should remain at a steady rate. If he decides to follow the money to a team that may be of a lesser quality (Giants, Mets), he may feel forced to do things all by his lonesome and his game could suffer because of it.

In Boston, I doubt any of his old mates will be complaining if he leaves. If he goes out of town, chances are Boston will fill his spot with another big bat. The Red Sox lineup always seems to produce, so their players have nothing to worry about. His new teammates will enjoy his presence in their lineup, and he will boost their runs and RBI.

Bay may not be the best overall player in the league, but he is a big bat for fantasy owners, especially in OBP leagues. No matter where he goes, he will hit home runs and drive in runs, but a return to Fenway would be best for his fantasy value.

The Chicago White Sox declined Jermaine Dye’s $12MM option for 2010, officially making him a free agent. Dye was expected to be a free agent all season, and the White Sox’s acquisition of Mark Teahen all but sealed the deal.

At 35, Dye is on his last leg as a major league ball player. He hit .250/.340/.453 with 27 home runs and 81 RBI in 2009. Dye has officially developed his old person skills, with his walk rate 2.9% above his career average and above 11% for the first time in his career. He can still hit homers, so he has some value to fantasy owners.

He may even be able to give you a better average than anyone expects next year. His BABIP was .269, while his xBABIP was .295. His line drive rate was the second lowest of his career (16.9%), but even so, his BABIP will come closer to his .300 career average in 2010.

Because Dye is an abysmal defender, his options will be limited in free agency, and he will have to lower his asking price for teams to be seriously interested. Because the outfield market has big bats ahead of him (Jason Bay and Matt Holliday), Dye will have to settle for a lesser deal with a team looking for a veteran outfielder or DH.

The Giants may settle for Dye if they can’t get Bay, and Dye could welcome a return to the Bay Area. The Rangers have expressed interest in Dye, but it’s unclear if Dye is willing to DH. Atlanta is looking for a right handed bat, and Dye came up from the Braves farm system before being dealt to the Royals in ’97. If the Angels decide they don’t want to hang onto Vladimir Guerrero, then Dye could fill his role as the DH. He may not be able to play the field, but at least he can move better than Vlad can.

The best team for Dye from a fantasy perspective would probably be the Rangers. Their park is a home run hitters dream, and he would be surrounded by good talent, giving him plenty of runs and RBI opportunities. The Angels are the next best option, with the Giants and Braves falling behind, in that order.

Don’t expect too much from Dye in 2010, but value him higher than most owners will due to his BABIP. Don’t call him a sleeper, but he should be a decent value pick as a second or third outfielder in your next draft.

Thanks to the Hardball Times’ xBABIP calculator for xBABIP data