A couple of weeks back, I was talking to the great Carson Cistulli, and he posed an interesting question: Peter Bourjos, or Juan Pierre? Now, because of the nature of the conversation, I had to answer on the spot without thoroughly researching the topic (I’m not going to tell you what I originally answered quite yet, because I don’t want to spoil the punchline). However, it was such a good question that could be very relevant come next season, it deserves to have a bit more time put into it.

This past season, Pierre did what he’s always done when he has a starting job: be a fantastic fantasy asset. At 32-years of age, Pierre set a career high in stolen bases with 68. He also showed some of the best contact skills of his career, with a whiff rate of a mere 2%. While his contact skills stayed intact, Pierre had trouble hitting line drives, instead hitting the ball on the ground and lowering his batting average to a .275 mark. And, as always, you aren’t going to get any production in the RBI or HR categories from Pierre, but he did score over 95 runs for the White Sox.

On the other side of the debate, Bourjos was called up by the Angels at the beginning of August, with the hopes that he’d provide good defense in centerfield and be an offensive spark plug. While he wasn’t a spark plug, he sure was offensive. He barely reached the Mendoza Line in just under 200 trips to the plate, thanks to a bad strikeout rate and a lack of anything close to consistent line drives. However, he did steal 10 bases in his limited time in the bigs, getting caught three times in the process.

Bourjos also displayed some surprising power, hitting 19 homers in 648 total trips to the plate between Triple-A and the majors. The power production was something new for Bourjos, but it could continue to be in play as he matures. However, his power may limit his ability to hit for a high average, as he put the ball in the air far too often for a player with terrific speed. If he levels out his stroke a bit, his .228 BABIP is bound to skyrocket.

At the time, I told Carson that I’d rather have Juan Pierre, because he’s a known quantity who should continue to provide consistent production for at least two more seasons. After looking at Bourjos and Pierre a little more closely, I’m going to stick with Pierre for the time being. I’d like to see what Bourjos does with a larger sample, mainly to see if he works on leveling his swing instead of going for bombs (which Sam Miller of the OC Register thinks he will). If he can do just that, I might have a change of heart.

After the success Dave had with the Contract Crowdsourcing series on the other side of the FanGraphs pond, we’re going to give it a shot over here at RotoGraphs. Of course, ours won’t deal with contracts, but rather with a players’ average draft position (ADP). Below I will present you with a brief profile of the player in question, and you’ll cast a vote for where he’ll be drafted in 2011. If you, the influential reader, like this idea, then we’ll keep it going throughout the offseason.

First, and possibly last, in our ADP Crowdsourcing series is Brandon Morrow. After being handled poorly by the Mariners organization, the Blue Jays acquired Morrow for Brandon League and a prospect.

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During this offseason, the Yankees’ catcher “battle” will be one of the more prominent positional competitions to keep an eye on. Barring a free agent addition, which seems unlikely, the Yankees will go into 2011 with three distinctly different catchers, all of whom could have some value to your team. Here they are, in no particular order.

Jorge Posada
The switch-hitter has been around for a long time, but you already knew that (I hope). While his batting average was poor this year, he was still a top-10 fantasy catcher thanks to his 18 homers. By the time next season ends, Posada will be 40-years old, so will he be able to squat behind the plate more than a couple times a week? I’m doubting it, and the Yankees probably are, as well.

Francisco Cervelli
The Yankees used Cervelli to spell Posada this year, and he racked up over 300 trips to the plate in the process. He does a good job of making contact and drawing walks, but a slugging percentage below .340 really limits the damage he can do to an opposing team. He’s a safe option, and the Yanks are going to keep him around because of it.

Jesus Montero
Montero will always be involved in one of the great “what if” questions for both the Yankees and Mariners after he was almost dealt for Cliff Lee this summer. He has great power for someone who iis still really young, but still has a lot to learn about the defensive side of his position.

In all likelyhood, the Yanks are going to have Posada DH a couple of days a week, in the hopes of keeping up his offensive production. Cervelli will get the playing time behind the plate for the first month or two, as the Yanks try to fine tune Montero’s defense while limiting his service time.

All three of these guys could have some sort of fantasy value, but it could turn out that all three are somewhat worthless depending on how playing time is distributed. While the catchers’ position is the main one to watch, keep an eye out to see if the Yankees bring in a full-time DH for next season. I’d expect New York to keep the DH role fairly open, rotating Posada or Montero through for the majority of the season.

While we use replacement level freely on the other side of FanGraphs, the idea of replacement level hasn’t exactly forced itself into fantasy baseball yet. I’m not sure why, because I’ve been using it successfully for a while. In fact, we all have, whether we realize it or not. If we didn’t use replacement levels, catchers, shortstops and second baseman would rarely be taken before the third round, yet we see them scattered amongst the top ranked players most years. To give you a better idea of the different strengths at each position, here are the players were valued at replacement level this year by my z-score rankings.

Catcher: Jason Kendall
Without the 12 stolen bases, Kendall wouldn’t even be close to replacement level. But, we do count those stats, and someone who could use an extra handful of steals wouldn’t mind having him hang around on their roster. The better example of replacement level is Ryan Doumit, who did it without relying on stolen bases.
Three Below: Yorvit Torrealba, Ryan Doumit, Ramon Hernandez

First Base: Ike Davis
Davis didn’t even get the chance to play a full season, yet turned out to be a somewhat useful player. A .265 average and about twenty homers with run and RBI counts around 70 do a very good job of illustrating how powerful this position can be.
Four Below: Buster Posey, Carlos Pena, Mike Napoli, Lyle Overbay

Second Base: Ryan Theriot
You couldn’t pick a better example of a replacement level second baseman, which is why I know the formula works. He did a decent job of scoring runs and stealing bases, but he’s not giving you anything else.
Three Below: Aaron Hill, Orlando Hudson, Freddy Sanchez

Third Base: Pablo Sandoval
Pablo had a pretty poor year, yet third base was so weak that he turned out to be a replacement level player.
Three Below: Jhonny Peralta, Chris Johnson, Alberto Callaspo

Shortstop: Starlin Castro
Castro makes sense, right? High average, but not a whole lot of counting stats. He was a very safe option, but nothing to get excited about.
Two Below: Erick Aybar, Jason Bartlett

Outfield: Ryan Raburn
Raburn hit some dingers, had a solid average, but didn’t contribute to the other counting stats. I’m surprised he’s this low, and if he stole another three or four bases, he’d be ranked five spots higher.
Three Below: Tyler Colvin, Jose Tabata, Josh Willingham

Starting Pitcher: Jonathan Niese
A WHIP above 1.4 killed Niese’s value, which was otherwise solid.
Three Below: Not Jason Hammel, Chris Volstad, Daisuke Matsuzaka

You’ll notice that relief pitchers aren’t listed, because it’s very hard to evaluate them. Do we include only players who recorded a save, or use a standard innings limit? Feel free to weigh in on that point below.

Dear Mr. Tracy,

Thank you for taking time out of your day to read my pathetic ramblings on baseball. I don’t usually do this sort of thing, so pardon me if it is lacking a certain “je ne sais quoi.”

While I’m sure the Rockies’ upper management is a fan of yours, fans love you dearly for 2009’s run, and your players respect you, I have a lot of problems with the way you ran your team during the 2010 season. Let me list a couple of them for you:

1. Miguel Olivo and the Catcher position
I mean, hey, no one can blame you for playing Olivo during his super hot first half, or sending Iannetta down to get him regular playing time, but it never should have gotten that far to begin with.

First, I’m sure you hate strikeouts. Did you know that Miguel struck out more often than Chris did? Yeah, it sort of surprised me, too. Did you know that Chris also walked more and is a better power hitter? Because I sure did. And yeah, Olivo probably did a better job of handling your pitching staff, but can that really make up for his offensive short comings? Come on Jimmy (can I call you Jimmy? I’m going to call you Jimmy), I think you know better.

2. Eric Young, Jr.
EY Jr. is one fast dude, isn’t he? I’m not going to sit here and list off various metrics for you Jimmy, I’m just going to try to plant an idea in your brain: Think how scary a lineup that included EY, Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler would be! Opposing catchers wouldn’t be able to do a darn thing against your barrage of “the quickness.”

In Conclusion
All of these problems are correctable, Jimmy T, so I’d really appreciate it if you’d take my suggestions under advisement and make the necessary changes to your approach next year. Rockies fans, and baseball fans everywhere, would love you for it.

Thanks a boatload,

Zach Sanders

As you’ve undoubtedly heard, Ted Lilly has decided to remain with the Dodgers for the next three seasons, signing a deal worth a reported $33 million. While the Dodgers roster may see some changes this winter, we can get a pretty good idea of how Lilly’s value has been impacted by his decision to stay in Los Angeles.

After being dealt from Chicago to L.A., Lilly performed extremely well and did his best to keep the Dodgers in the playoff picture. He struck out over a batter an inning while donning Dodger Blue (or white, or gray, or whatever) and did a great job of limiting free passes. Yet, his FIP was barely below 4.00 due to Lilly’s love for home runs.

Lilly’s always been a fly ball pitcher, never posting a GB% north of 38%. Last year in L.A. (and Chicago), his ground ball rate reached an all-time low, coming in below 30%, easily the worst mark in the league. Even though Dodger Stadium can be a pitching heaven at times, Lilly’s lack of ground balls allow his HR/FB rate to be fairly normal while giving up around 1.5 homers every nine innings.

As far as the Dodgers’ defense behind him, Los Angeles had the worst outfield defense in baseball last year, according to UZR. Some of those problems will go away with Manny out of town, but it’s clear the Dodgers’ defense isn’t going to do Lilly any favors. Maybe he knew what he was doing, going for more strikeouts and all that jazz?

Teddy will be 35 before next season begins, so he’s no spring chicken who’s looking to make strides and improve on his numbers. As a starter who’s going to give you a K/9 around 8.0 and limit walks, Lilly will have value in all leagues. He’s not going to be anything special thanks to an ERA that will likely be lackluster, but if he can rack up 13+ wins, he’s worthy of being your third starter.

Raise your hand if Howie Kendrick is one the most frustrating players you’ve ever owned. Yeah, I feel your pain.

When Kendrick was coming through the Angels system, and finally making it to the big leagues in 2007, a common thought was that he’d win a batting title some day. And while he still could, he hasn’t gotten around to it yet and the possibility of him winning one in the future is looking grim.

Throughout his career, Kendrick has been a league average hitter, thanks to his .327 OBP leading him to a 101 wRC+. Because he doesn’t have much in the way of power (his SLG is usually close to league average), and doesn’t like to take many walks, Kendrick’s real life value is going to center around his glove and his batting average.

Kendrick’s made improvements to his contact skills each and every year since 2007, raising his contact% and improving his whiff rate. Unfortunately, his whiff rate hasn’t been the only thing declining, as his BABIP has steadily gone down since ‘07.

In any given year, you need to hit around .360 to win the batting title. Factoring in Kendrick’s playing time, it means that he’ll need upward of 215 hits to push himself into the lead. Then, factoring in his home run and strikeout rates, we can see that Kendrick will need a BABIP around the .440 mark to win the batting title. This is why batters who can hit for power will have an advantage when it comes to the batting crown, because they get an extra 30+ hits every year, allowing their BABIP to be lower.

Should we ever count on Kendrick having a BABIP that high? Of course not, and we should never project that number for anyone, but it happens. All he can do is put himself in the best position to reach base, by limiting his strikeouts and hitting liners.

The odds are against Kendrick becoming the batting champ, but then again, that’s usually the case. I’d bet he delivers a couple more .300 seasons, and eventually lucks into a batting title at some point. But, a .290/12/12 line isn’t bad for a fantasy second baseman who still has some upside.

During the Keeper Conundrum series, I got some nice suggestions in the comments. Today, I finish of the series by continuing to look at some of your ideas.

Ervin Santana
While he still hasn’t lived up to his 2008 break out, and likely never will, Santana has had a solid fantasy season. But, his periperals weren’t that far off from last season’s, leaving him with yet another regression year.
Crude 2011 Projection: 205 IP, 4.00 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I can guarantee you didn’t pay anything for him, so keep him on your roster next season.

Edwin Jackson
The addition of cutter upon arriving to Chicago made Jackson a second-half stud. Even though he’s been around the block, he’ll still only be 27 next year. If Jackson can continue his second-half surge, he’ll be one of the top pitchers in all of fantasy baseball next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: 210 IP, 3.70 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s going to be solid next year, and I want a piece of that action.

Brian Matusz
Matusz has always been in my doghouse, thanks to his extreme fly ball tendencies. But, he did pitch extremely well in the last two months of the year, with xFIP’s around 4.00. I’m hoping he can take a step in the right direction next year, but I’m not going to bet much on it.
Crude 2011 Projection: 190 IP, 4.00 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s very young, and pretty raw, and I want to see if he can keep performing at the level he showed late this year.

Andrew Bailey
His injury throws his status up in the air, but he did well upon his return. We only have a 132 inning sample, so we don’t know how high his BABIP should really be.
Crude 2011 Projection: 55 IP, 2.25 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. He’s probably in line for some progression, and we don’t know if the A’s are going to be any good next year.

Thanks for all the suggestions this week, hope this helped you in some way.

During the Keeper Conundrum series, I got some nice suggestions in the comments. Today, I continue my look at some of your ideas.

Travis Snider
Snider made some nice strides on the field this year, but he had a hard time staying in the lineup. He improved his contact rate, started to hit lots of liners, and still showed us that he can hit for power. He’s really young (will be 23 next season), and I think he’ll continue to get better next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.335, 24 HR
Verdict: Keep. I don’t know if he plays a full season, but I’m not banking on it. He’s a nice risk to take, and a good piece to keep in your possession.

Jay Bruce
I thought he was going to hit 30+ homers this season, as did most people, and his ADP reflected that. He ended up doing pretty well for himself, and a big August and September will drive his value up once again. He has the potential to consistently hit 30 bombs, but please remember that he’s only 23 at the moment.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.365, 30 HR
Verdict: Keep. He’s only a year or two from putting it all together and getting picked in the third or fourth round.

Desmond Jennings
Everyone thinks that he’ll be handed the LF job once Crawford signs elsewhere this winter, and there’s no reason to think otherwise. His value comes down to how you think he’ll adjust to major league pitching, because we know he can run if he just reaches base.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.340, 5 HR, 30 SB
Verdict: Keep. Personally, I don’t like keeping guys just for steals, but I’m not going to let my prejudice tell dictate my response here.

Andre Ethier
The Dodgers outfielder started out hot, but had some injury troubles and cooled off later in the year. He still ended the year with over 20 bombs, a good average and respectable counting stats. He’s right in the middle of his peak, so now’s the time to own him.
Crude 2011 Projection: .290/.365, 28 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Keep. Odds are that you got him in the seventh round, and that price is right. It’s no bargain, but you’re not overpaying.

Thanks for all the suggestions this week, and check back tomorrow for part three of your requests.

During the Keeper Conundrum series, I got some nice suggestions in the comments. Today through Wednesday, I’ll be looking into the better suggestions I received.

Chris Iannetta
I was going to include Iannetta in my original catcher’s article, but I have no idea what is going on in Colorado, so I can’t comment much on his situation. My projection will assume he’s the everyday catcher, so I’ll let you worry about his PT.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.380, 22 HR
Verdict: Keep. If you have him for a dollar or two, he’s worth having around.

Mitch Moreland
Moreland has flashed power at a couple of minor league levels, and did very well during his limited stint in the bigs. Moreland’s biggest problem was his strikeout rate, and I expect that to dip a couple of percent next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.370, 25 HR
Verdict: Keep. He’s going to be really cheap next year, and probably even 2012.

Neil Walker
Walker has been a nice surprise for the Pirates, as the former disappointment has given them reason for hope. He continued to show that he can hit for a little power, and a .340 BABIP helped to fuel a high batting average. He’s not a good defender, but the Pirates are going to keep the switch-hitter in the lineup every day.
Crude 2011 Projection: .285/.335, 15 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Keep. He’ll be starting in standard leagues next year, and he shouldn’t have cost you more than a Buc or two (see what I did there?).

Pablo Sandoval
Sandoval’s decline was mostly BABIP related, as the rest of his numbers stayed fairly consistent. However, his power production took a big hit, dropping back down to the level I expected in 2009. He’s very young, but he needs to do some serious work this offseason, and I’m willing to bet the Giants will be pushing him hard to improve his physical condition.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 17 HR
Verdict: Cut. He’s a good candidate to pick back up in drafts at a lower cost, but not worth keeping.

Michael Young
Call him what you will, but don’t you dare call him inconsistent. Despite his age, Young was able to produce at a decently high level. He hit you more than twenty dingers, and kept his batting average at a helpful level. He’s wasn’t great in OBP or OPS leagues, but that’s another story for another day.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.335, 19 HR
Verdict: Cut. Let someone else pay for a player on the decline.

Thanks for all the suggestions this week, and check back tomorrow for part two of your requests.