It seems as though Carlos Santana has been all figured out. I don’t mean that opposing pitchers have figured him out — that certainly isn’t the case. While pitchers struggle to get him out, various projection systems have him absolutely pegged.

The following table is a combination of various pre-season projections as well as his final line. The accuracy is pretty remarkable.

Everyone give a cap tip (and a follow) to our friend Dan Szymborski. He and his system came the closest to Santana’s actual numbers, but none of the projection systems were too far off base.
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To all of our readers of the female persuasion, (unofficial) Sadie Hawkins Day is today. Well, at least according to one source it is.

• If Mike Napoli can be considered a full time catcher going forward, then he is most likely the best fantasy catcher that is a free agent. I say that with all due credit to David Ross and his new hitter friendly home at Fenway Park. Even though Napoli is unlikely to repeat his crazy 2011 season, even in a down year last year he managed to his 24 home runs and put up an above league average wRC+. The Boston Red Sox — among other teams — have shown interest in Napoli thus far. There is also up-and-coming Ryan Lavarnway in their system as well. On the face of it, with both Jarrod Saltalamacchia and the newly signed Ross on the roster, it may seem unlikely that the Red Sox pursue Napoli. However, the Sox may deal Salty, as a platoon of sorts Napoli and Ross could make for a very strong receiving corps. Another option would be to have Napoli play first base and catch on occasion. Really, anything that keeps Napoli’s catcher eligibility is the key here. Calling Fenway home would be a near ideal situation. With his right-handed power and fly-ball tendencies, one could expect his HR/FB rate as well as extra-base hits to both climb. For what it’s worth, despite normally punting catcher, I would draft/bid on Napoli if he became a Red Sock.
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Everyone remembers the great car chase scene from The French Connection, right? It’s basically Gene Hackman chasing a hitman in New York City. Except the hitman is on an elevated-train while Hackman is in a car below him. Hackman has to avoid a woman and her baby, oncoming traffic as well as plenty of other obstacles.

Alexei Ramirez faced his share of obstacles this season, not the least of which involved him chasing out of the zone. After posting an average .326 wOBA for his four season career, Ramirez saw his offensive game take a steep dive in 2012: he posted a .282 wOBA — ranking dead last among qualified shortstops. Despite this poor showing in the advanced side of the numbers, his fantasy tallies were sufficient to rank him as the 15th best shortstop.
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A show of hands of who misses baseball. Everyone? I thought so.

• With the re-signing of David Ortiz to the two year deal that he was looking for, the Boston Red Sox have taken one of the premiere — if not aging — bats off of the market. In all likelihood, this was the best move for Ortiz and his potential fantasy owners. Last season Ortiz crushed the ball at Fenway “Pahk” at a .359/.463/.706 pace. In other words, Ortiz’s slugging was .130 points higher than teammate Nick Punto’s OPS as a Red Sock. For the second straight year Ortiz’s home OPS was over 1.000 and his away OPS was under .900. Age aside, Ortiz still makes for a valuable fantasy contributor in both standard 5×5 leagues and Ottoneu. I’ll be aiming to draft him.
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I haven’t watch a full game of baseball in four days. If I don’t watch a replay of something soon, I’m going to start shaking.

• The San Francisco Giants announced that they will not exercise the $10 million dollar option on Aubrey Huff. After landing a two year contract in the wake of his absolutely bonkers 2010 season (where he hit .290/.385/.506), Huff struggled to even approach being league average with the bat. Between that and the emergence of Brandon Belt as a viable candidate at first base (finally), Huff was the odd man out. From a strictly fantasy perspective, this makes Belt much more appealing. Given that Belt earned 472 plate appearances vs Huff’s 95 this past season, this was a move that everyone saw coming and was merely made official. After hitting .275 and stealing 12 bases, power — and the RBI’s that come with it — is really the only thing left to be desired in Belt’s game.
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Okay, so it’s the wrong Frazier/Frasier. The point is, if you were lucky (or smart) enough to grab Todd Frazier to hold down the hot corner in any of your fantasy leagues, then your mind was at least at ease. While he was ranked in the top 25 for third basemen this year — albeit barely, coming in at 23rd — that does not do him justice.

Frazier accumulated a 5×5 line of 19 home runs, 55 runs, 67 RBIs, a solid .273 batting average and even stole three bases too. Normally those numbers wouldn’t be worth noting from a corner infielder, however Frazier racked up those counting stats in just 422 at-bats spread across 128 games. That is fewer AB’s than anyone above him with the exception of Jose Bautista.
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With all due congratulations to the San Francisco Giants, it is now time to fully look ahead to the 2013 baseball season, and perhaps just as importantly, the 2013 fantasy baseball season!

• Rumors are swirling about what the Los Angeles Angels will do with one of — or both — Dan Haren and Ervin Santana. Despite having a down season by all accounts, Haren was an elite pitcher as recently as 2011. The primary cause for concern regarding Haren is his slumping fastball velocity. For the first time in his career, his four-seamer averaged less than 90 mph. Or even 89 for that matter. In fact, his velocity on all of his pitches was down across the board. Pure speed isn’t the absolute critical factor in pitching, but it certainly does help. Santana has been more consistently inconsistent. Given that he posted his worst K%, BB%, ERA, FIP, and xFIP in five years, it is highly possible that Santana might not see his 2013, $13 million dollar option exercised. Santana’s biggest issue was that he always seemed to give up a home run. He actually lead the league in home runs allowed, despite making half of his starts in a home park that suppresses home runs from both left and right-handed hitters. At this point, it seems most likely that the Angels will pursue Zack Greinke and not Santana nor Haren for next season, let alone the long term.
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From a fantasy perspective, Ian Kinsler performed almost exactly as I expected. After an incredible 30-30 season in 2011, I assumed a bit of regression would be in order. I also wondered if he could manage to stay healthy and play in over 150 games in two straight seasons, so in that regard he was a smashing success.

For the second straight season, Kinsler led the Texas Rangers in both plate appearances and runs scored. Given that the Rangers ranked third and first in runs scored in 2011 and 2012 respectively shouldn’t come as a surprise either. Kinsler possesses the rare gift of being able to hit for power and draw walks all while keeping his strikeouts in check and his contract rate high. That he can steal bases is just the icing on top. If only we could pencil him in for a .300 average, he would be the ideal fantasy player.
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Before this Roto Riteup gets too far underway, this was hands down the biggest announcement from yesterday.

• It was confirmed Albert Pujols underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee last week. The Los Angeles Angels claim that it was “a minor cleanup surgery” and that Pujols will be ready for spring training. Per wOBA and wRC+, Pujols is on a five year slide. Despite this trend and the surgery, Pujols still figures to be a pillar of any fantasy squad. If anything, I think natural aging is the cause of any decline. And of course, Pujols’ worst year of his career in 2012 was “only” 30 home runs, 105 RBI’s with a .285 batting average. As far as re-draft leagues go, proceed as usual.
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Let me apologize for making this title seem like a bigger deal. In reality, I’ll only be examining one particular team’s 2012 first base situation. That being said, this team’s first base .354 wOBA was good for eighth in all of MLB. If you prefer park adjusted numbers, then said team’s first base was responsible for a 127 wRC+, ranking at an astonishing fourth.

Without looking it up, could you guess the fourth most effective first basemen? I know I couldn’t have. Well, okay, I could have guessed, but it would have been an incorrect guess.
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