Carlos Santana: The Case of the Accurate Projections
It seems as though Carlos Santana has been all figured out. I don’t mean that opposing pitchers have figured him out — that certainly isn’t the case. While pitchers struggle to get him out, various projection systems have him absolutely pegged.
The following table is a combination of various pre-season projections as well as his final line. The accuracy is pretty remarkable.
AB | R | RBIs | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bill James | 532 | 86 | 91 | 25 | 4 | .261 | .383 |
ZiPS | 499 | 80 | 78 | 22 | 6 | .246 | .361 |
RotoChamp | 520 | 93 | 83 | 21 | 5 | .267 | .385 |
2012 Actual | 507 | 72 | 76 | 18 | 4 | .252 | .365 |
Everyone give a cap tip (and a follow) to our friend Dan Szymborski. He and his system came the closest to Santana’s actual numbers, but none of the projection systems were too far off base.
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