• Santiago Casilla blew his fifth save in his last eight chances on Wednesday evening, and although Bruce Bochy wouldn’t “commit to making an immediate change”, he acknowledged that “there does come a time with every player when you have to change it up.” Casilla has been terrible as of late, which could be attributed to the apparent blister he suffered prior to the All-Star Break, or his inability to keep balls in the park (19.4 HR/FB%). Even with the recent struggles, Casilla’s 23 saves are good enough for seventh best in the Majors and ranks him third amongst National League closers. Should the Giants make a change from within the organization, Sergio Romo and his 0.66 ERA (2.69 xFIP) and 0.73 WHIP await patiently. Rumors have also indicated that the Giants have “heavily scouted” the Royals and Cubs Triple-A affiliates, and if the price drops a bit on Jonathan Broxton, they could be interested.
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• Francisco Rodriguez earned his second save in as many days in dramatic fashion. The Brewers current closer loaded the bases, walked in a run before inducing a Lance Berkman flyout to end the game. Despite the demotion of John Axford into lower pressure situations, Brewers Manager Ron Roenicke noted that he would ideally reclaim ninth inning duties by the end of the season.
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With the All-Star Break upon us, and the trade deadline getting closer, the Bullpen Report will look a little different over the next few days. Stay along for the ride as we dive into the world of trade rumors and how that might affect some of the bullpens in baseball.

• The Houston Astros are ready-and-willing to unload their ninth inning man, Brett Myers, and as much as they can of the remaining portion of the $11 million he was to earn in 2012. Teams that will likely inquire about the right-hander’s services are the St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Mets. The Astros’ current general manager, Jeff Luhnow, served as the Vice President of the Cardinals from 2003-2011 and had a hand in drafting many of the players in their farm system, which seems to make them a decent fit.

While the Cardinals’ current closer Jason Motte has locked down 20-of-24 save opportunities, the bullpen as a whole ranks in the bottom five of all MLB bullpens with a 4.48 ERA. As for the Mets, well, it’s no secret they’re on the hunt for some relief reinforcements to improve on that league-worst 4.94 ERA.

So what does a trade mean for the guy that has saved 18-of-20 with a 3.34 ERA (3.92 xFIP) and a 3.17 K/BB? First and foremost it means that Myers’ wallet would get a little fatter, as he would claim a $500,000 kicker for being traded. It also means that Myers would likely be reduced to a set-up role, and for those outside of holds leagues, he could have little-to-no fake baseball value. If by chance he landed in Flushing Meadows, Myers could see a few save chances depending on how well Frank Francisco returns from his oblique injury as well as the continued development of Bobby Parnell.

This is way too much speculation for me, so I’d be looking to sell my shares of Myers before the Astros move him. Brandon Lyon looks like a good bet to take over the ninth inning role when Brett Myers is dealt. Lyon, who has 78 career saves, is 0-2 with a 3.24 ERA (3.70 xFIP) and a 9.45 K/9 (4.38 K/BB) in 35 appearances (33.1 IP) this season.

• Not that Buster Olney is the end-all-be-all when it comes to potential moves at the trade deadline, but he is one of the more reliable insiders who always seems to have his ears to the ground. With that said, back in June Olney tweeted that the Colorado Rockies would have to be “overwhelmed” by rival clubs in order to move their closer Rafael Betancourt (or Matt Belisle).

Despite Olney’s remarks, teams would still be wise to inquire on Betancourt due to his reasonable contract and overall performance in the recent years, as Ben Duronio notes. Through the first half of 2012, the 37 year-old Betancourt is 15-of-19 in save opportunities with a 2.84 ERA (3.56 xFIP) and a 3.78 K/BB.

If by chance a team is able to pry Rafael Betancourt out of Colorado, Matt Belisle or Rex Brothers could be called upon to close out games. Belisle has had the better overall season to date (3-2, 1.93 ERA, 2.96 xFIP, 5.00 K/BB) but Brothers had a monster June with a 0.66 ERA, 0.66 WHIP and a 7.0 K/BB in 13.1 IP.

• Sometimes a team’s best acquisition around the deadline isn’t in the form of a trade. It may come as a player returning from the disabled list like Jacoby Ellsbury, or in the case of the Miami Marlins, a player returning from suspension.

Juan Oviedo, the reliever formerly known as Leo Nunez, will finish his eight-week suspension for identity fraud on July 22nd and rejoin the Marlins bullpen. Oviedo and his 92 career saves will immediately bolster the depth in the Marlins’ bullpen and give Ozzie Guillen an additional experienced arm to call on in save situations.

Although Heath Bell was a perfect 6-for-6 in save chances in June, he is just 3-of-5 in July and now 19-of-25 on the season with a 6.75 ERA. Ozzie Guillen stated that the Marlins would begin the second half with a closer-by-committee based on Bell’s recent struggles, and once Oviedo returns, he figures to be a part of that committee. Oviedo makes for a fine add for you saves chasers.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

• Minnesota Twins’ closer, Matt Capps, is scheduled to toss his first bullpen session this weekend since hitting the disabled list on June 24th with inflammation in his right shoulder. If Capps feels well after the bullpen session, he will head to Class-A Fort Myers to pitch an inning of rehab with the hopes of returning to the Twins at the conclusion of the All-Star Break.
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• The Kyle Farnsworth show is ready to return to Tampa Bay, but not in the role he expected to serve entering Spring Training. Farnsworth, who has been sidelined since the end of the Spring with a strained right elbow, will join Jake McGee and Pine Tar Joel Peralta as “the eighth-inning set-up men” for Fernando Rodney. Rodney, one of the great stories of the first-half, has been nothing shy of spectacular while manning the ninth for the Rays. The righty is 21-for-22 in save opportunities with career bests in ERA (1.07), WHIP (0.77) and BB/9 (1.34).
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• Besides Giants’ fans and those in holds leagues, has anyone noticed the season Sergio Romo is having? The guy has been filthy. Tonight he earned his fourth handshake of the season while lowering his ERA to 0.83. Romo is inducing swings-and-misses at an astronomical rate (18.7 SwStr%) which leads us to believe his 12.39 K/9 is more than real. Although Romo has only accumulated 21.2 innings on the bump, he’s sporting a FIP (1.82), xFIP (1.89) and SIERA (1.65) that indicate we may see a slight regression, but we’re likely going to see more of the same. At this point, Romo is owned in holds leagues and in shallower leagues with saves chasers. If by chance he’s available, I’d consider making the add to get a weekly boost from his ERA (0.83), WHIP (0.79) and the aforementioned strikeouts.
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• Alfredo Aceves needed just seven pitches to lock down his 18th save tonight in a 6-5 Red Sox victory over the Marlins. Boston’s current ninth inning man got off to a bit of a rocky start in his new role, earning just two saves in his first four chances with a 1.0 K/BB. However, since April 23rd (and entering today) Aceves has “converted 15-of-16 save opportunities with a 1.59 ERA.”

That was the good news for those who own shares of Alfredo Aceves in their fantasy leagues. Now on to the bad: Andrew Bailey threw 25 pitches in a bullpen session on Wednesday and is expected to do the same again on Friday. Bailey, who was acquired from the Oakland Athletics prior to this season, was to assume the closer’s role vacated by Jonathan Papelbon who signed with the Philadelphia Phillies. Unfortunately, Bailey suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb that required surgery on April 4th which has delayed the closer’s regular season debut for Boston. Barring any setbacks, Bailey looks to return “around” the All-Star Break. Now may not be a bad time to trade Aceves and/or add Bailey if possible in your league.
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• Matt Capps served up a two-run blast in the ninth frame of a non-save situation to Martin Maldanado of the Milwaukee Brewers last Friday, and hasn’t pitched since. The long ball was the fourth allowed by Capps this season — giving the Brew Crew a 5-3 victory over the Twinkies — and dealt the veteran righty his fourth loss of 2012. Since the loss, Capps has been sidelined with shoulder inflammation but is expected to return to action this Thursday or Friday. In the meantime, manager Ron Gardenhire suggested Glen Perkins and Jared Burton could each see an opportunity to close out games based on matchups. Despite the aforementioned loss, Capps has been pretty reliable for the Twins in save situations, nailing down 14-of-15 chances with a 5.00 K/BB.
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• Another day, another turn of events in Chicago. Apparently on Wednesday the Cubs’ coaching staff determined that Carlos Marmol would regain the closer role as soon as the opportunity presented itself. That opportunity came today, with the Cubs leading the Red Sox 3-0 heading into the top of the ninth frame. As promised, Sveum called upon Marmol to nail down the ninth for the Cubbies. The outing wasn’t pretty, but after a hit, an error, a strikeout and a walk, the former Cubs catcher snuck his way out of a bases loaded jam to earn his third save of the season — and his first since May 2nd. Based on the skipper’s comments, Marmol is the closer to own again in Wrigleyville and fantasy baseball owners should be racing to the waiver wire to check on his availability.

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• Just as I was about to press the “publish now” button on the Bullpen Report from last evening, John Axford decided to blow his second save of the season. The mustached one entered with a two-run lead, but surrendered a hit and two walks, resulting in two earned while whiffing just one to send the game into extras. Although this was only Axford’s second blown opportunity of the season, the Brewers’ closer has allowed six earned runs in his last four outings with five walks to just three punch outs. Looking further, Axford has actually increased his K/9 since 2011 — 10.51 to 12.93 batters per nine — but has allowed about double the free passes as he did last season (3.05 to 6.08 BB/9). Additionally, Axford has been a bit unlucky on average on balls in play (.361 versus .301 career) and is stranding less runners (62.2 LOB%) than his career (76.3%), which leads me to believe his 4.94 ERA is due for some improvement. Assuming there are no injury concerns, Axford needs to limit walks and reduce line drives if he wants to be the effective closer who recently held a 49-game consecutive save streak that ended May 11th. Should Axford continue to struggle, former closer Francisco Rodriguez is waiting in the first chair for the Brew Crew.

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