Humans are really good at pattern recognition. It’s what makes us who we are as a species. In some ways, we’re too good with patterns. We see them even when they aren’t there. There is an important phrase in statistics that not all of us take to heart – correlation is not causation.

Today, I want to talk about potential false patterns. Put another way, when we pick a player to outperform his draft position, we should have a reason.

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The Mets have conducted a quiet offseason. Rumors about the infield swirled for months. Daniel Murphy is one year from free agency, will he be traded? Wilmer Flores fits better at second base, can the Mets acquire Troy Tulowitzki? It’s too early to definitively say “no” to both questions, but we can almost rule out a trade.

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As you know, it’s mock draft season. It’s a time to be friendly with our fantasy drafts. Often, we’ll openly discuss how we view certain players or why we’re building a fake roster in a specific way. That extends to congratulating others on “good” picks. Avisail Garcia is one player who always garners a pat on the back. If you can’t tell, I don’t understand the love. I’d like to. I’m open to hearing explanations.

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The Washington Nationals are arguably the most complete team in baseball. They do have one area where they look considerably less impressive than the others – the bullpen. None of Washington’s relievers project to be elite and only one youngster seems to have the components necessary for a breakout. While relief isn’t a strength for the Nationals, it isn’t a weakness either.

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Pundits and projection systems don’t always agree. When they do, it often signals some underlying truth. Everybody, human and computer, expects the Philadelphia Phillies to be bad this season. Really, the only debate is the degree of awful. Will they be merely bad or downright terrible? With the doom and gloom, it’s easy to forget the Phillies project to be among the best in baseball in one regard – relief pitching.

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What I have in mind today is a review of everything I’ve done between the end of arbitration and last Saturday’s keeper deadline. I’ll begin with my 31 player roster entering the draft and include each trade that was made along the way. We can use the comments today for two purposes. Those who want to crow about their own accomplishments can do so. Others who have questions or concerns about why I did certain things should ask away. While there is an essence of humblebrag in this post, my purpose is to teach through example.

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It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

The Miami Marlins are known for roster turnover, but they’ll return their entire starting outfield for the 2015 season. Those starters range from 23 to 25 years old, and they possess the tools to be fantastic fantasy assets. The Fish traded away a few outfield prospects who might have served as valuable depth. Instead, they’ll depend on one old guy to back up three positions. It mostly worked for them last season with Reed Johnson.

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The first mock draft of the season is always the most informative. The nice thing about being a fantasy writer is accessibility to expert mocks where everybody involved plays to (fake) win. Yesterday, I participated in Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army. It was a 15-team, 23-round snake draft with no bench. The imaginary categories are standard 5×5.

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Injuries and unanticipated performance decline are the twin banes of fantasy owners. It’s one thing if you’re reaching to the waiver wire to replace Josh Reddick. It’s another thing entirely if it’s Paul Goldschmidt going down for a couple months. Your chances to field a winning roster are hurt anytime you have to replace a key contributor from waivers.

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Next Saturday at 11:59 pm ET is the ottoneu keeper deadline. It’s time to complete your trades and trim the fat from your roster. If you’ve followed my advice, you haven’t cut anybody since the end of the season. You can start making those moves soon.

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