Reviewing my Bold Predictions each season involves a little bit of back-patting, and a whole lot of laughing at what an idiot I was just a few months ago. The sweet spot for these predictions is getting three or four of them right per season. How did I do this year?

In short, not great, but not terrible. Only two of the following predictions happened, but the majority got close, or at least still look reasonable in hindsight. On the other hand, prediction No. 5 might be my worst-ever in three years of Bold Predictions…

10. James Shields is not a top-65 starting pitcher.

Shields was the consensus No. 40 SP by our experts heading into the season, and I was not about to agree. Shields’ 2015 saw him post his best-ever strikeout rate, but also his career-worst walk rate. After a hot start in April and May, the bump in strikeouts vanished, and his walk rate soared.

With this prediction, I was betting on the continuation of Shields’ June through September 2015 production, and I bet correctly. According to Jeff Zimmerman’s end-of-season rankings, Shields was this season’s second-worst pitcher. The only pitcher who damaged his fantasy owners more than Shields was Alfredo Simon.

We’re off to a good start here.

1-0

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Ah, the final week of fantasy baseball. The time of year when guys you would normally never consider rostering become crucial lynchpins in your quest for championship glory. If you’re still reading fantasy content in the last week of September, chances are you’re in a highly competitive league, so I’m not going to waste your time talking about players that are likely owned. Instead, I’m focusing solely on players who are available in nearly every league. (If speed is your need, take a look at Mike Podhorzer’s column from this morning.)

Adam Rosales – San Diego Padres

Shocked doesn’t come close to describing my reaction to Rosales’ 2016 numbers. Entering this season, the 33-year-old journeyman infielder had a 0.9 Wins Above Replacement through 1,226 major-league plate appearances. This year, he’s sitting on a 2.3 WAR, with just 245 PA. In the past, Rosales always hit lefties better than righties, but it’s not like he mashed lefties either:

• vs LHP (pre-2016) – 529 PA – .242/.311/.375, .133 ISO, 15 HR
• vs RHP (pre-2016) – 697 PA – .215/.281/.317, .102 ISO, 12 HR

Now take a gander at his numbers from this season, his first in San Diego:

• vs LHP (2016) – 113 PA – .242/.354/.505, .263 ISO, 6 HR
• vs RHP (2016) – 132 PA – .224/.295/.500, .276 ISO, 7 HR

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In fantasy, I generally consider utility players to be more valuable than ever in September, when expanded rosters allow managers to schedule in a few more rest days for their regulars. Throw in the fact that these guys have already played five months of baseball, and the combination of nagging injuries and general fatigue further encourages managers to work in additional rest days.

The last thing you want in the fantasy playoffs is empty lineup slots. Of course, there’s the obvious caveat that it’s difficult to find productive utility players on waivers at this point in the season. In other words, don’t go picking up Cliff Pennington just because he’s eligible at four positions. Let’s not get carried away here.

The three players featured in this piece are all widely available, and capable of producing when they find their way into your lineup.

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Brian Dozier is a streaky hitter. We know this to be true, much like the world is round, or the sun rises in the east. In the last two seasons, he’s pushed the boundaries of what I thought ‘streaky’ could entail. About halfway through the 2015 campaign, Dozier’s production fell off a cliff. Check out his slash lines by month:

• April ’15 (95 PA) – .220/.305/.336 (.671 OPS), .146 ISO
• May ’15 (121 PA) – .287/.355/.630 (.985 OPS), .343 ISO
• June ’15 (121 PA) – .287/.355/.556 (.911 OPS), .269 ISO
• July ’15 (110 PA) – .206/.282/.433 (.715 OPS), .227 ISO
• August ’15 (120 PA) – .216/.275/.387 (.662 OPS), .171 ISO
• September ’15 (137 PA) – .197/.270/.295 (.565 OPS), .098 ISO

The batting average dropped down around the Mendoza line, while his power evaporated by the month. The really scary thing was the way Dozier began 2016:

• April ’16 (106 PA) – .191/.276/.340 (.617 OPS), .149 ISO
• May ’16 (92 PA) – .215/.315/.316 (.632 OPS), .101 ISO

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Without looking, take a guess at who leads the majors in stolen bases per plate appearance. Most of you probably chose Billy Hamilton, and while you aren’t far from being right, you are still wrong. While Hamilton’s pace of swiping a bag in 11.1% of his PA is mighty impressive, someone else is at an even more ridiculous pace of 11.6%. (Author’s note: As pointed out in the comments section by user “Regression is Mean,” Hamilton stole four bases yesterday to bump his rate up to 12.1%.)

Believe it or not, this mystery player is not even owned in 10% of Yahoo or ESPN leagues, as he currently sits at 8% and 9.5% ownership on those sites, respectively. (CBS owners are catching on, as he’s 20% owned on that site.) Who the heck is this player, and why isn’t he on your roster?

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Episode 209 – Riding the Whale

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Matthew Dewoskin and guest host Scott Strandberg discuss their mutual (and thankfully, unfounded) fear of lacking on-air chemistry, Scott accidentally upstaging the absent Dylan Higgins by correctly guessing the number of home runs given up against righties by Tyler Duffey, today’s wealth of outfield options leading to appealing single-team outfield stack options, Matt calling a Trevor Bauer no-hitter against Max Kepler & Friends (AKA The Minnesota Twins) tonight, and riding the revolutionary DFS wave that is Rob “The Whale” Whalen.

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Check out last month’s tiers right here.

TIER ONE
Jose Altuve

A couple weeks ago, I wrote a piece on this very website entitled “Jose Altuve: Fantasy Baseball’s Most Valuable Hitter.” It is a celebratory collection of fun facts about the best position player in fantasy, and I invite you all to partake in its many enjoyable info nuggets. Altuve should claim the No. 1 overall spot soon, which is currently held by the injured Clayton Kershaw. (Kershaw is seriously still the top performer in 2016 in traditional 5×5 formats, despite the fact that he last pitched five weeks ago.)

TIER TWO
Daniel Murphy
Ian Kinsler
Robinson Cano
Dustin Pedroia

The Murphy/Kinsler/Cano trio have held down this tier for months, and now Pedroia moves up to join them. The soon-to-be 33-year-old socked five homers in July, while hitting over .300 for the third time in the season’s four months. Pedroia also has more walks than strikeouts over the last two months. He’s now sitting on a .303/.373/.453 season slash, with 12 homers, 70 runs and 46 RBI. With his prime position in the two-hole of Boston’s powerful lineup, Pedroia’s four-category contributions should continue to pay big dividends for his owners.

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No matter your league size, there’s likely someone on the waiver wire who can give you a boost at second base. This week, I’ve identified three under-owned second-sackers who could bolster your production at the position.

Devon Travis (31% Yahoo, 30.3% ESPN, 66% CBS)

For a while, it seemed like Travis had a shot at leading off for the Jays, as he picked up five starts atop the lineup in Jose Bautista’s absence. However, the 25-year-old was unable to fend off Ezequiel Carrera as the team’s primary leadoff man, and now Bautista is due back soon. Manager John Gibbons recently indicated he’ll likely slot Bautista back into the leadoff spot when he returns.

The dream of “Devon Travis, leadoff hitter” may be a thing of the past, but despite bouncing around between every spot in the order other than third and fourth, Travis is producing well above his ownership rates. Players on CBS have clearly noticed, but there’s no reason he should be so widely available in Yahoo/ESPN leagues. Over the last 30 days, Travis is hitting .325 with three homers, two steals, 15 runs and nine RBI. Pretty darn good for a second baseman who’s likely floating around on your waiver wire.

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Whenever I write my monthly second-base rankings, I find myself awestruck by how much better Jose Altuve is than any other option at the position. This usually leads me down an Altuve-based statistical rabbit hole, and today I’d simply like to invite you to join me, as I explore the reasons why the 26-year-old is the most productive 2016 fantasy bat to date. (Yes, he’s seriously producing better than the likes of Josh Donaldson, Mike Trout, and David Ortiz in traditional 5×5 formats.)

First off, let’s compare the man to himself. Just 92 games into the season, his 15 home runs already equal last year’s career high. With 70 runs and 54 RBI, he’s on pace to shatter his career marks in both categories, which were also set last year (86 R, 66 RBI). He’s hitting .346, even better than the .341 he hit in 2014, when he won the American League batting title.

He’s already drawn more walks (42) than in any of his previous four full seasons. On-base percentage, slugging percentage, isolated power — all are miles beyond anything he’s done before. His 4.7 wins above replacement already tops last year’s 4.3 WAR.

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Check out last month’s tiers right here. I’m in the midst of an intensely busy week, but I’ll try to respond to any questions you might have in the comments section.

TIER ONE
Jose Altuve

Altuve is outperforming his competition to such a degree that I nearly left Tier Two empty, simply to signify how much better the 26-year-old is than any other fantasy 2B option. Altuve somehow managed to outperform his ridiculous April, with an absolutely bonkers .396/.472/.582 slash in June. He launched four more bombs, stole three more bases, walked more than he struck out for the second consecutive month, it just goes on and on.

I’ll cherry-pick one amazing statistic before moving on: Altuve is hitting .302/.362/.395 in plate appearances in which he finds himself down 0-2 in the count. That’s good enough for a wRC+ of 108. In other words, Jose Altuve is a better hitter down 0-2, than a league-average hitter stepping into a 0-0 count.

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