Nick Evans is now a major league baseball player, and he’s getting some at-bats in left field and in a first-base platoon with Daniel Murphy. The flailing Mets seem to be looking to catch lightning in a bottle with Evans, but the fan base is clamoring for a more impressive solution.

Could they possibly ’solve’ their temporary 1B problems with a Murphy/Evans platoon? Murphy’s career minor league split OPS against lefties is not great at .725. Well, at least Nick Evans can handle lefties, as his his .914 OPS against lefties in 421 minor league at-bats can attest. Put together the two half-players and you could actually have a decent stop-gap first baseman for the time being.

But should that keep the team from trading Evans should a better solution come along? His minor league progression has been a halting one. He started poorly and didn’t crack an .800 OPS in his first 500 plate appearances.

In fact, he didn’t have a strong full year until he hit St. Lucie in his fourth pro year. In 2007, he hit .286/.374/.476 and burst onto the Mets prospect scene. It does matter, though, that the park factor for St. Lucie that year was a 1.15 for home runs, and that the park has played as a hitter’s haven. Plus, he still had those three full years of poor play behind him.

When he hit AA Binghamton in 2008 and followed up with a .311/.365/.561 line, though, the Mets might have gotten a little giddy. They might have been forgiven for thinking they had Carlos Delgado’s future replacement in their hands. They probably felt that he would play his way into some major league playing time after a little seasoning in AAA.

Ooops. The old, that is to say young, Evans showed up in Buffalo, and his .093/.218/.227 start was too nasty for the brass. The team demoted him back to the friendly confines of Binghamton, where he put up a mediocre .276/.350/.467 slash line in 117 at-bats. Then, all of a sudden, it didn’t matter what he was actually doing, since the major league team needed a warm body. As of now he’s playing well in the major leagues… in very few at-bats.

There will be some that will say that he’s a keeper. Murphy is done, they’ll say, and thank heavens for Evans! That’s a bit short-sighted. There’s not actually that much to like about Evans: as he’s advanced in the minor league system, his strikeout rate has gotten worse, and his walk rate (mediocre at around 8%) has stayed the same. His .462 slugging percentage in the minors is nothing to write home about, and both of his career years in the minors came in parks that played as hitters parks. Neither was his .768 minor league OPS versus righties.

This is not to rain on the parade. He might be a really good fourth outfielder and backup first baseman. If he can improve his split against righties, he may even rise to about an average level as a first baseman. In a platoon situation, he can rake against lefties and can help in the short-term, so he has value on the bench.

He’s no savior, and the odds are still against him being a regular. If Omar Minaya can improve the team by shipping Evans out, he should do it.

There are a plethora of middle infielder surprise stories this year. Ben Zobrist‘s breakout season was just dissected by Dave Allen this week, and Dave Cameron touched on Marco Scutaro’s remarkable penchant for riding the wave this year.

A little less heralded, but no less surprising, has been the play of Nick Green in Boston. All six feet, 180 pounds of Green spent 2008 in the minor leagues in the Yankee organization, playing the middle infield and hitting poorly (.233/.285/.373). Talk about coming back from the dead. Green’s resurrection has brought him all the way to a .281/.337/.433 slash line, and fringe fantasy relevance as the nominal starter at shortstop on a good offensive team.

While defense is not usually a fantasy entity, I covered its importance this week while talking about Fernando Martinez and his chance of sticking in center field over the next couple of weeks in New York. In the same way, a discussion of Nick Green’s defense is in order.

It’s not like he was a player known for his defense at shortstop as he advanced through the Atlanta Braves’ system all those years ago. in fact, the last time he logged significant tries at the position was 2000, in high-A ball. Until Seattle and New York tried him there in 2007 and 2008, he logged about 40 games at the position. But he acquitted himself well while playing short, and his overall minor league Range Factor per nine innings was a decent 3.86.

This year he’s playing to his potential in the field, with a 3.8 RF/9 and a positive UZR rating. His 9 errors are a little worrisome, but he doesn’t have much competition from Julio Lugo, whose hands have turned to bricks this year. Lugo’s career 4.2 RF/9 is down to 2.8, he has 6 errors in half the attempts as Green. And his 14.1 lifetime UZR rating is down to -6.9 this year.

So you have one man whose lifetime .271/.335/.391 slash line and double-digit lifetime UZR rating are up against a hotter player with a lifetime .248/.314/.364 slash line and 9.5 lifetime UZR at the same position. This is a pretty classic battle, and if the difference on lifetime defense or offense was more pronounced, it would be much easier to come down on the side of the seasoned veteran.

It’s tough to parse the team’s attitude about playing time going forward, even if the decision seems to have been made in the present. Lugo has only 20 at-bats in June, which would seem to say that Green has won the battle. However, Lugo’s current .292/.361/.385 slash line may be some ready-made Maalox for the manager when Green’s offense starts to take the predictable slide.

But career seasons do happen. And Lugo is no prized veteran that deserves more tries at the position. The Boston fans certainly aren’t clamoring for more from the slap-hitting Lugo, especially if his defense continues to be putrid. So we come back to defense, because as long as Green plays better on that side of the ball, he’ll probably continue to start. The team has plenty of offense from its other positions.

On offense, ZiPS RoS projections seem about right for Green. They have him finishing the season with a .271/.322/.418 slash line, and some regression will happen. His BABIP is .344 (against a .323 career number), and his strikeout rate is currently significantly lower than his career rate. There’s nothing more damning than his current 40.5% O-Swing%, in the end. Even his career 26.5% reach rate is way too high reaching for a low-power middle infielder.

So for your deep-league fantasy managers that just need anything, anything at all from a starting middle infielder: Green means go… as long as he’s picking it at short. See some more errors in the box score, and you should get nervous.

Many fantasy leagues break the outfielders up by their respective positions, a quirk that creates a premium outfield position. Consider that, in many formats, the 12th-ranked center fielder going into the season was Chris Young, whose projections were comparable to the 12th-ranked second baseman going into the season (Rickie Weeks).

Defense then becomes a non-fantasy entity that can mean a lot to the fantasy fortunes of the center fielder. Play good defense, and you’ll buy yourself more time to figure out the batting part of the deal. Or at least, that seems to be what’s keeping Carlos Gomez playing in Minnesota. Let’s take a look at two young center fielders, how they are faring, and how defense factors into the decision.

Dexter Fowler – For a 23-year-old getting his first extended burn at the major league level, Fowler is acquitting himself reasonably well. His .264/.354/.405 slash line has a little bit of something for everyone. Walking 12.7% of the time assures that he can take advantage of his prodigious speed (6.5 speed score). He’s stolen 13 bases at a 72% success rate, and he’s hit three homers and 17 doubles in 273 plate appearances.

But it’s not all gravy on this train. He’s striking out 25% of the time after hovering around 20% for the large part of his minor league career. Subsequently, ZiPS RoS has him hitting .271 the rest of the season and continuing his current pace to finish with seven home runs and 25 stolen bases. Until his K-rate falls a little, that’s about the best that can be expected from this young man.

Because his offense is currently adequate, and his team is suddenly playing well, defense may not factor into his playing time too strongly. However, his team is not a strong contender in a crowded division, and things could change quickly. Pack an extended burn of strikeouts into a team-wide slump and a decision by management to focus on next year, and suddenly Fowler’s sub-par defense could become an ‘issue.’

His current 2.1 Range Factor in center field puts him in the Shane Victorino (2.3 RF) – Vernon Wells (2.3 RF) section of center field defenders. That’s the section where the offense helps the poor defense stay on the field. Is Fowler’s bat enough to offset the 5.3 runs he’s giving back on defense? Not if the major league team decides to think about his long-term future and sends him back to the minors to work on his D. That might also allow the team to showcase someone like Ryan Spilborghs for a trade.

Fernando Martinez – While his minor league team had already decided to play him at the corners, his major league team has a major league hole in center field and looks to be plugging it with their highest-ranked prospect. A look at the defense says that this is a short-term solution at best.

If major league defensive stats are still in their infancy, then minor league ones are much worse off. We can see that Martinez had a Range Factor of 2.31 in center field in the minor leagues, and that Carlos Beltran, an elite defender, had a career Range Factor of 2.7 in center field in the major leagues. Using the cruder Range Factor suggests that Martinez, like Fowler, could use some time honing his defense.

The problem in Martinez’ case, though, is that his offense won’t keep him in the position much longer. While his secondary offensive statistics are a little up and down like Fowler’s, Martinez has much more down in his numbers.

The good news is that he’s not striking out a ton (14.5%), and he’s shown improvement in that area over the last two years. His walk rate (6.8%) is in line with his minor league numbers, too.

But he’s not making good contact. He’s reaching outside the zone too much (26.5%) and not squaring the ball well (11.9% line drives). His 55.9% ground-ball percentage is positively Delmon Young-esque. Given that he’s only 20 years old, it’s a lot to ask of him to spell Beltran.

Since the team is in contention, look for Omar Minaya to target a center field platoon partner for Jeremy Reed. Relatively cheap acquisitions like Scott Hairston and Jason Michaels could take the bat out of Reed’s hands against lefties, while also letting young F-Mart work out some more kinks in the minor leagues. Those cheaper veteran outfielders would also still have value once all the injured veterans return.

When the Athletics signed Orlando Cabrera to a one-year, $4-million-dollar deal late in the offseason, Dave Cameron was not alone in lauding Billy Beane for another veteran steal.

The logic seemed unassailable. Cabrera has been a real plus on defense over the course of his career. Last year he even put up an impressive 14 runs over the average shortstop, but his glove has also averaged 7 runs over average at a premium position for three years.

Of course, his offense has been a drag on his value. Over his valuable last three years, he’s given up almost 4 runs a year with his bat. Even so, most teams would agree with his $26 million dollar value over the last three years, especially if that player came with a $4 million dollar price tag.

Then came this year. The player himself said it best to the San Francisco Chronicle: “I suck. I don’t even know how to describe it. … I suck. For real.” So what’s going on with this year’s disasterpiece? Perhaps we can use his offensive numbers to figure out what he’s lost on defense.

There are a couple issues with his plate discipline. While his walk rate and strikeout rate are right in line with his career numbers, his reach rate is up a little (27.2% over 24.1% career). With a 93.6% zone contact rate, he could stand to take advantage of that strength by reaching less often. This is nitpicking, however.

His batted ball rates are actually all perfectly in line with his career averages. It is eerie actually how Cabrera’s line drive, ground ball and fly ball rates are right in line with what he’s always done. In April, he hit 62 balls without getting a single one over 100 mph, but without historical data, it’s hard to say much about those numbers. He was never much of a slugger anyway.

No, he was more of a speedster. Since 2001, he’s averaged 21 stolen bases and a 5.3 four-component speed score. This year, he’s down to two stolen bases (against four caught-stealings) and a speed score half his average (2.5). His BABIP, a number that is tied to speed, is in a three-year decline. That’s more than a step slow, that seems like a leg or foot injury… or a quick decline.

Consider that his speed score, which was never elite in the first place, is actually in a four-year decline. His stolen-base success rate in 2008 was his lowest since 2001. It certainly looks like Orlando Cabrera has lost a step – or even more than a step. Since speed is a big part of both his offensive and defensive game, it follows that his value has quickly entered a decline phase.

Maybe this isn’t so surprising for a 34-year-old middle infielder. What is surprising is that, by using his speed score and offensive numbers, we can possibly spot a loss of speed that isn’t evident in his defensive component numbers. If he has slowed, you wouldn’t have seen it in his Range Factor, Range Runs Above Average, or Ultimate Zone Ratings over the past three years. His defensive numbers just fell off a cliff this year, with little warning. It seems that defensive statistics could use some more refining.

Either that, or Cabrera is just having an unlucky start (.250 BABIP) and a little trouble getting his motor going.

In the “post-steroid” era, the idea is that careers will be shorter and production in a player’s late thirties will decline rapidly. Without conjecturing about the steroid use of these two older men, we can take a look at the numbers and see two guys that are seemingly sustaining decent levels of production despite their advancing years. Their last hurrahs should even continue – provided they stay off the DL (or the Pavano as those in New York may call it).

Jim Thome – Really, the only piece of bad news when it comes to the 38-year-old Thome is that he’s striking out more than he has since 2001. Striking out doesn’t do wonders for a man’s batting average – and Thome’s .256 batting average might scare some people off. But you don’t own Thome for his batting average, since it has been in decline for three straight years and his career number sits at .278 anyway.

Will the power continue? That is the big question. Amazingly, some of his secondary power numbers are above his career norms. Check his home run per fly ball percentage (30.0% this year, 27.8% career) and his line drive percentage (21.1% this year, 20.3% career). The only worry is that he’s hitting a high number of infield flies (12.5%), and the last time he cracked double digits in that department was his disastrous 2005 campaign with the Phillies (.207/.360/.352).

With everything else in line with his career numbers, Thome looks pretty safe. Keep an eye on his infield flies and as long as they trend toward his norms, you’ve got a safe geezer on your squad. Let him collect the long balls as long as he’s in uniform.

Gary Sheffield – Sheffield’s case is less cut and dry than Thome’s and his decline has been more precipitous over the past couple years. After his .225/.326/.400 disasterpiece last year, the Tigers had seen enough and let the 40-year-old go. They did this despite the fact that their current DH, Marcus Thames, has a .765 lifetime versus righties, compared to Sheff’s .898.

No matter. It seems that Manuel’s philosophy of running Sheffield out there until he found what he had lost worked. Now his starting right fielder is boasting a more than decent .270/.390/.482 and fantasy owners are wondering if he can continue his success.

First, the bad news. Despite his rocket bat speed, he’s never been a good line drive hitter (17.2% career) and he’s on a three-year decline that has exacerbated the situation. His current percentage (12.4%) may not sustain his current .283 BABIP, meaning his ZiPS RoS projection might be spot-on in terms of his batting average (.242). Certainly, the ‘old’ way of projecting BABIP (line drive rate plus .12) would suggest that he’s in for a decline in the batting average department.

One thing that the old method does not account for, however, is speed. His current 4.5 speed score puts him in speedy company – right ahead of Alfonso Soriano and Emmanuel Burriss. Normally, his 53.1% groundball percentage (the highest of his recent career) would be seen as a negative. But perhaps Sheffield is relying on his decent speed and actually benefiting from the increased grounder rate.

One this is for certain – he’s not your typical aging slugger. After all, he stole 22 bases just two years ago. Here’s thinking that his speed will help him beat his batting average projections from here on out, and that Sheff will keep cooking at this rate.

Consider that Rod Barajas and his .711 OPS is probably the 12th best catcher in most formats currently, and you’ll realize how thin the catching position really is. The buy-low catcher is an important phenomenon, especially in two-catcher leagues. Let’s take a look at two guys that could yet net you a top-12 finish at the position, despite their currently ugly stats.

Geovany Soto – Almost every secondary statistic screams that Soto is a great buy-low. Of course, any player with “Sweet” Lou Piniella as their manager has to come with an asterisk next to their name. They could be subject to the vagaries of their impulsive manager, and just as likely to end up in AAA as starting regularly. That’s how Soto ended up on the bench for a two game mental breather this past week. Maybe Piniella will take credit for the impending hot streak.

Yes, his four for eight so far this week (with a home run) should be the beginning of something good for Soto. Let me count the ways. The first is that his BABIP is a meager .261 against a .328 career number. This is in the face of a 20.9% line drive percentage, which is both decent and in line with his career percentage (20.6%). His fly ball rate, ground ball rate, walk rate and strikeout rate are all either the same as his career rates – or better. He’s walking more than ever and striking out less than ever. Pitchers are sending him more or less the same mix of pitches, and he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the zone.

When all of a player’s career numbers are the same or better, and only one number isn’t right, it’s a great bet that the player will recover to his career norms. A quick check at the speed of balls leaving his bat (thanks to Harry Pavlidis and his look at the speed of balls leaving the bat) shows us that Soto has about as many 90+ mph balls leaving his bat as Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley. Yes, he’s a good buy-low.

Chris Iannetta – This situation is not as clear. Early on in the season, I took a look at Iannetta’s legendary batted ball statistics. Back then he had a 5.1% line drive rate, easily the worst in the league. Along with his 69.2% fly ball percentage, his stats painted the picture of a young catcher swinging for the fences.

As with all outliers in small sample sizes, these numbers quickly came back into the fold. Iannetta is sporting a relatively robust 13.8% line drive percentage now, and a more modest 55% of his balls are traveling through the air. He’s still swinging for the fences – and now that it’s not so extreme, this is probably a good thing.

All the other numbers are mostly trending positive. He has the highest walk rate of his career, and his strikeout percentage is now at a three-year low. He’s swinging at fewer balls outside the zone than his career rate, and his contact rate in the zone and overall are above his career numbers.

Considering that his career line drive percentage is 19.5% in 865 career plate appearances, the ZiPS RoS prediction of a .261/.369/.479 finish to the season (with 10 more home runs) seems very achievable. If he can combine a higher line drive rate with the career-high fly ball rate, he could, of course, better the projection considerably, making him another good buy-low candidate.

One of the hardest things to figure out in baseball is if a declining older player has anything left. Fantasy managers are left wondering what the doctors are saying, if there are physical or mental ailments to blame, or if the player is just done. Two aging DHs are currently facing their own struggles, and though ZiPS is pessimistic about both, their cases are not the same.

David Ortiz – Much has been written about Big Papi, and R.J. Anderson did a great writeup just a couple weeks ago. Let this be an update, as Ortiz has been the subject of much publicized conjecture in just the last week. Brian Costello wondered aloud, in the New York Post, if Ortiz was really 33 as his birth certificate said. A scout cited that he was David Arias when he was drafted, and that therefore the chances of his birth certificate being accurate were “zero.” The same scout said that we are seeing a 40-year-old man flailing away when we watch Ortiz. Hyperbole aside, there’s no way Ortiz is falsifying his age more than a year or two in the wrong direction. He’s not going to halve his OPS in one year, even if he’s really 35 instead of 33. And yes, even if he is a big man.

Anderson did wonder if something was physically wrong with Ortiz, and that is always the main concern with aging sluggers. So the Red Sox doctors recently did a full checkup and famously gave Ortiz some eye drops and he responded that his dry eyes were not keeping him from performing at his peak. Some bat speed issues might be at play in his reduced contact rate in the zone – just look at how many fastballs pitchers are choosing to send his way. He’s seeing 4% more fastballs, which seems to suggest that pitchers think he’s not getting around.

But June has been kind to Ortiz, and his .300/.333/.500 slash line is reason for some optimism. Maybe the mental and psychological barriers were the barriers that held the most weight, and a rebound is in order. Since Anderson checked in with Ortiz, he’s swung at fewer pitches outside the zone, and his O-Swing % is regressing to the mean. Perhaps his other numbers will also begin regressing to the mean.

Travis Hafner – The ‘other’ big struggling DH was brought up in the comments under Anderson’s take on Ortiz, and for good reason. His sore shoulder had him currently on the DL and his manager wasn’t sure when he’d be back in town. Despite his good start to the season (.268/.358/.563 has to be counted as good in the face of his .628 OPS showing last year), ZiPS is pessimistic about his slugging and has him down for .264/.379/.491 and 11 home runs over the rest of the year.

Can we be more optimistic? I think so. First, the bad signs are not so bad. Hafner is reaching right now, and his 25.3% O-Swing% is a career high. Why is this not so worrisome? Even when Pronk was struggling last year, he only swung at 18.1% of pitches outside the zone. Where Ortiz’s reaching was getting worse, Pronk is only now, suddenly reaching. Also, he’s making contact on his reaches – his O-Contact% and Z-Contact% are at career highs as well.

He’s seeing the ball well, it seems. His BABIP is actually low (.298 this year, .320 career), and he’s putting the ball in play. He’s hitting a career high in fly balls (48%), and his HR/FB rate is back up to his pre-2008 levels (20%). His line drive percentage is a little low (17.3%), but his career rate is not great (19.9%), so this doesn’t seem incredibly out of line.

Sometimes we over-rate what we hear about a player’s physical problems, which might be the case for both of these big DHs. Yeah, they may not play every day, and yes they may be in decline. But in Pronk’s case, since he’s come back off the DL, he’s put up a double and a home run in eight at-bats in consecutive days. That’s what Hafner is anyway, and in a league of any depth beyond mixed leagues with short benches, owners should be happy with him this year. It’s not like he cost much.

Not all of us are looking to sell high and buy low right now. Some of us are just looking for help – any help at all – off the wire. And if you’re in an NL-only, AL-only, or even a 20-team, MI/CI, 5 OF and 2 UTIL league (yeah, that one is fun), you’re looking for any guy that might take the job and start for a while.

Let’s take a look at some of these fringe options. Every once in a while, the ‘first guy off the bench’ can really do some damage in these deeper leagues.

Edwin Maysonet – His speed is the only skill he has that registers as decent on the scouting scale, and his contact and patience are both below average. About what you’d expect from a middle infielder with a minor league career .259/.338/.384 slash line. But you know what? He’s hot. After hitting .271/.343/.379 in his second year at AAA last year, he earned seven at-bats in the majors and got one hit. Repeating seems to work for him, as he’s currently hot in his second try at the major leagues after putting up a batting-average heavy .309/.417/.395 at AAA in his third try at the level. Of course, his current BABIP (over .400) has a lot to do with it. Why not get some stats out of the young guy, though – it’s not like 33-year-olds with injury-riddled histories come back quickly from bad hammies. (Yes Kaz Matsui, I’m looking in your direction. How’s the couch feeling?)

Jonny Gomes – The good news about Gomes is that he’s actually bettered his strikeout percentage over the last three years. Of course, he started at a Russell-Branyan
-esque 36%, and he may have made some of his gains by being reduced to a part-time role (his .219/.309/.425 slash line versus righties is just ugly, and he had twice as many at-bats against lefties as righties last year). On the other hand, Ramon Hernandez
is brittle enough – why push him with more at-bats at first base? While starter Joey Votto is out with his mysterious stress-related illness, someone has to play first. When that someone is Gomes, versus a lefty, take advantage of that .271/.371/.512 slash line against southpaws.

Sean Rodriguez – Howie Kendrick is struggling. Despite being a .294 hitter in a career 300 games, the fact that he has never even put together 400 plate appearances in a single season makes everyone wary. Are his current struggles injury related? Or, as the low .262 BABIP (career .346) suggests, just luck related? He really needs to start hitting better than 12% line drives, and his upside seemingly belongs along side the other high-contact-rate low-pop second basemen like Robinson Cano and Placido Polanco. Rodriguez, on the other hand, is showing mighty power for a second baseman. His .279/.364/.637 slash line shows isolated power that is well above his career .494 slugging percentage in the minors, but right in line with his .645 slugging percentage from last year. Guess he likes Salt Lake City and its 1.16 park factor for home runs in 2008. If the team gets tired of Kendrick, or – gasp – he gets hurt again, Rodriguez is worth a long look.

Ryan Roberts – With all the first basemen in Arizona hurt (what’s in that water?), Roberts has found his way into some at-bats over the past week-plus. This former shortstop’s defense is above-average, so he probably has a chance of sticking as the corner infielder, at least until even Tony Clark is back. Roberts has always been a power-and-patience guy and his major league strikeout percentage (29.8%) is not in line with his minor league one (19.8%). This year, he’s got that number down to 23.9%, which bodes well for his offense. Unfortunately, his BABIP is .471 and ZiPS pegs him for a reasonable .256/.328/.380 finish. There’s not much to like here, since the team has decided that Mark Reynolds is a fine solution at the hot corner despite his poor defense.

First off, full disclosure: this is a mailbag-inspired piece and Eric/OR should get his credit. He asked a good question, and it deserves some attention.

Who will be better from here on out this season, Elvis Andrus or Emmanuel Burriss?

First, let’s look at all the things this diminutive middle infielders have in common. They both weigh under 190 pounds, they both make their living in the middle infield and own shortstop eligibility in most leagues, and they are both fleet of foot. Okay, enough of the obvious, because the similarities run much deeper.

Check out their batted ball statistics. Burriss features a 19.8% line drive percentage, a 58% groundball percentage, and a 22% fly ball percentage. Andrus? How about 19.5%, 58.5%, and 22% respectively.

It gets even crazier when you start looking at their approach to the strike zone. They both make great contact inside the zone – consider Andrus’ 93.5% contact percentage in the zone, and Burriss’ career 92.8% number. Andrus reaches a little more than you’d like from a table setter (25.2% O-Swing %), and hey, Burriss has that same fault (24.8%). Both could walk more (Andrus – 5.8% BB%; Burriss – 7.3%), but a good walk rate does not a good batting average make.

No, their speed and good contact in the zone seems to presage that these players will put up decent batting averages in the future, if only because they’ve done so before. Given their skills, their high-ish BABIPs shouldn’t be too worrisome (Andrus – .309; Burriss – .326).

ZiPS, at first, seems to predict the same regression for both, though the reason for the regression is not immediately clear. Andrus owns a rest of season projection of .249/.304/.428 with 26 steals, and Burriss has a projection of .256/.312/.301 with 27 steals.

That slugging percentage is where the twins begin to separate a little more. The doubles and triples that Andrus has on Burriss will be valuable in many leagues (8 combined for Andrus, five doubles and no triples for Burriss). On the other hand, don’t count on home runs from Andrus – an 11% HR/FB percentage is not sustainable when you’re only hitting 22% of your balls in the air.

If there is a difference between the two, it just might be found in their slugging percentage, their BABIPs and in their differing strikeout percentages (Andrus – 13.1%; Burriss – 16.9%). Strikeouts are negatively correlated with batting average, and Burriss’ also has a little farther to fall because of his higher BABIP. Give a slight edge to Andrus for his lower strikeout rate, lower BABIP, and higher slugging percentage.

Any edge that you’d like give Burriss for his 300 extra plate appearances might disappear depending on your opinion of the 4-component speed score. While he had elite totals in the minors (7.8 and 7.7 in A ball), his 4.1 this year is dwarfed by Andrus’ 7.3 (despite only topping 7.0 in the minors once).

Though they seemed like twins to begin, Andrus looks to have slight edges in some key categories. The improving lineup around Andrus is the final nail in the coffin. Don’t bet against Elvis.

Guys,
Haven’t seen a mailbag since the 14th and wanted to get your thoughts on this.

Thanks, Big Oil

Thanks for the question, and since readership has been high for these, we will continue to do them.

My initial response is that I don’t like the deal. If you only keep four, you always want to consolidate your keeper talent. That much is probably not news to you, but Grady Sizemore blend of speed and power is matched by only a handful of players. Owning him puts you ahead of the game because you don’t need to pick a speed-only guy high in the draft – if at all.

Upon a closer review, I can see the enticement. Your current third basemen are not up to snuff in a mixed league, and though you are competing now, you may fall behind without Aramis Ramirez and his considerable production at the hot corner. I don’t fault you for looking for a better option at third base, not at all.

However, I still go with ‘no,’ even after more reflection. I don’t want you to keep a second 1B (Adrian Gonzalez is good, but first base is a deep position), and Jay Bruce and Justin Upton are exciting players that probably won’t steal like Sizemore. Upton is close, as he is on pace for over 15 stolen bases this year and has always shown good speed in the minors.

But speed is not his game like Sizemore’s. Consider that Sizemore stole 96 bases in the minors (in 529 games) while Upton totaled 36 in 231 games. Er, that was a suprising statistic. Guess it makes sense that Upton’s four-component speed score of 6.7 this year would better Sizemore’s since 2006.

Hmmm. On second thought, fly that flag. Go for the win and do the trade. Upton looks like a good consolation prize right now, and at 21 is coming into his own. You can deal your surplus 3B at the end of the year if you want to consolidate keepers.

In a 12 team mixed league, I have a staff of Sabathia, Chamberlain, Greinke, Kershaw, Porcello, Maholm, and Sonnanstine. I am going with 2 closers and am using Joba’s RP status to plug in an extra starter. I also had Kawakami on my bench, but dumped him and someone else scooped him up. I am growing impatient with Sonny and am wondering if I should cut bait and pick up someone else. I am near the top of ERA, WHIP, Wins, but could use more Ks and could go back to 3 true RPs. Any thoughts?

Thanks! K.G.

Andy Sonnanstine shouldn’t be owned in most formats. Seriously, I took a longer look at his stats than I deemed necessary, and I still didn’t see anything I liked.

His mediocre stuff just holds him back. While he’s still not walking too many to be productive (2.92 per nine), he’s still not striking out enough to really matter (5.29 K/9). How is he going to strike people out with an 87 MPH fastball, an 87 MPH cutter, a 77 MPH slider, and a 74 MPH curveball? That’s just too many pitches at the same speed with similar movement.

Look at this chart for his vertical movement. You can see why he’s suddenly using his cutter more, because it’s the only one that moves differently on the vertical plane. Consider that his cutter used to move less, and the possibility of a regression to an already-unattractive mean is not a happy thought.

Sonnanstine is a decent number four or five in real life baseball, just on the basis of his stinginess with the walks. That shouldn’t be too attractive in fantasy baseball. Go find a reliever that might get you some saves. (Oh and trade Paul Maholm high, because he’s got too much in common with Sonnanstine to get comfortable with him.)

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