Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders, left fielders and center fielders.)

Of course, when it comes to pitchers, the format suffers. We’re certainly not about to do tiered rankings for the top 75+ pitchers that get drafted every year in mixed leagues – that would be one long post. Instead, I’m going to cover the pitchers by their location on your team. The first group consists of pitchers that could or should be selected to be fantasy aces in 2010. Let’s take a look.

This is where I drop some caveats. Everyone has their preferences, so order this tier as you will. The first tier is meant to be the no-doubt-about-it group. All of these guys won’t give you the strikeouts of Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke, but they’ll come within a strikeout or two per nine innings. They won’t all have the miniscule WHIPs of Dan Haren or Roy Halladay, but none of them should break 1.2 in that category. They won’t all be the horse that CC Sabathia is, but they’ve all (so far) shown the ability to put close to 200 innings together. There are no guarantees when it comes to elbows and shoulders, but these guys look like bonafide studs.

The next group ain’t too shabby themselves. The first three only have question marks because they’re young and haven’t been doing this for ages. Despite my worries about Jon Lester’s walk rate in the minors, he hasn’t shown any problems since he made his cancer recovery. Felix Hernandez broke out last year, and just needs to show it again. Justin Verlander seems to have fixed his delivery, but will what broke before break again? The next two guys have question marks are about age and health. Chris Carpenter is a walking question mark, and his ongoing health issues make him overvalued after strong years and undervalued after injured years. In other words, I owned him often last year and may not own him once next year. Instead, I may own Johan Santana often this year, who should be next year’s Carpenter, despite his worrisome declining velocity and strikeout rates. Cliff Lee never had great strikeout rates to begin with and is going to the tougher league, but he may get some support for a higher ranking.

Originally, there was a tier between Lee and Adam Wainwright, but that tier was born more of intuition than anything in the numbers. Wainwright made just as big of a leap forward as King Felix in some ways, why should he be in another tier? Perhaps this imaginary tier has a combination of questions. Wainwright broke out – and has durability questions. Josh Johnson can probably repeat his performance, given his history, but he has definite durability questions. He’s put together just 364 innings total from 2007-2009. Josh Beckett is a favorite of mine, but for some reason he keeps putting up ERAs that are much higher than his FIPs, and maybe that’s just how he rolls. Ubaldo Jimenez induces mad ground balls and strikes out plenty, but his stats are still borderline. Aw, heck, put that tier back in.

The “just off” tier gives you a preview of some nice SP2 values that you could pair with a late SP1 for your best strategic approach. Consider that the number one pitcher on this list is projected by Bill James to put up an 2.80 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 261 strikeouts, while the tenth guy may “only” contribute 3.08 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 224 strikeouts. That, my friends, is why you wait to draft your starting pitchers.

When you’re playing a deep league, most of the time any player that will start in 2010 is draftable and interesting. In my 20-team keeper league, we have Corner Infield spots on our rosters, meaning that we need to play 60 players at first base and third base combined. No need to remind you that there are thirty teams in the league, I’m sure. Warm, starting bodies perk interest in these leagues.

So we come to the Cardinals, who have unloaded their coffers to protect Albert Pujols in the lineup with their shiny new toy, Matt Holliday. According to Cot’s Contracts, the Cards now have $81 million locked up in current contracts, and some significant players entering arbitration (Skip Schumaker, Kyle McClellan, and Ryan Ludwick most prominently). Factoring in all the young players that typically round out a roster, plus these arbitration upgrades, the Cards have already cleared $90 million in contracts this year, and could be looking at close to $95 million in payroll once the dust clears. Since 2005, the team has averaged $91.9 million per year in payroll. It certainly looks like some young men will get a shot to fill in the remaining holes on this roster.

All of this is preamble for GM John Mozeliak stating on Saturday that David Freese is the number one candidate for their third base opening, and (by implication) Miguel Tejada is probably not on his way into town. What can we expect from the 26-year-old, who is also trying to deal with a DWI charge that was handed down this offseason?

First, the positive. Freese hit .300 at every level last year, culminating in a 300/.369/.525 effort in AAA. As Marc Hulet pointed out in his piece on the Red Birds’ prospects, he was aided by some high BABIPs (.355 was his lowest BABIP since 2008). Another positive is that it seems Freese can do better than his 6% walk rate from last year, as his 2008 and 2009 rates were all higher. He can approach 10% and provide some value with the free passes. Lastly, Freese has posted ISOs over .200 in all but one of his minor league spots. He has real pop.

The bad news is that his strikeout rates could actually get worse next year. Freese debuted with a reasonable number last year (22.6%) but he showed rates in the minors that were in the high 20s. Those sort of strikeout rates aren’t normally associated with strong batting averages. Lo and behold, CHONE has Freese striking out more next year (25.2%), enjoying a more normal BABIP (.391 in 2009, projected for .329 in 2010) and posting a lower batting average (.269) as a result.

But CHONE didn’t account for the young man taking over the job and keeping it all year. The system has him projected for 388 plate appearances, and if he plays all year he will surely clear 600. Pro-rate the power out and you’re looking at a brand-spanking new .269/.335/.442 third baseman with 19 home runs and 82 RBI. I think both the Cardinals and deep league fantasy managers would be very happy with those numbers, especially considering their cost.

RotoWorld reports today that Jack Cust will re-up with the Oakland A’s for $2.5 million, a slight paycut from his $2.8 million salary last year. Considering that he is pretty much a DH these days (-23.1 UZR/150 career in the OF), that salary seems just about right for a guy that produced 8.8 batting runs above replacement last year. The market seems to be paying under $4 million a win, and the A’s will pay about a million less than they ‘should’ given those market characteristics… if Cust performs at the same level in 2010.

And there’s the rub. Fantasy owners, too, will be wondering if Cust can put up another season with a .350+ OBP and 25+ home runs – especially those owners in OBP leagues that could use a late-round value pick with some pop.

Cust has long been a “three true outcome player” in that his career walk (17.8%), strikeout (39.5%) and home run (5.8%) rates comprise the results for the bulk of his at bats. There’s been a little play in those rates as he’s aged, though. Last year, Cust put up three-year lows in walk rate (15.6%), strikeout rate (36.1%) and contact rate (69.2% last year, 66.8% career). Still, those look like enough like his career numbers to say with certainty that Big Jersey (6’1″, 240 lbs, born near Somerville, NJ) will walk, strikeout, and hit the ball hard next year.

He definitely has what most call “old-people skills.” These are skills, like walking, whiffing and swinging for the fences, that players develop more as they age. Some players begin with these skills, and most develop them, and they stand in opposition to more “young-people skills” like speed and contact that you either have or you don’t. Bill James famously found in his New Bill James Historical Abstract that players with these “old” skills peak earlier and decline faster. Here’s the money quote, taken from a passage about Tom Brunansky, courtesy Tommy Bennett and a fruitful and lively twitter conversation today:

The outfielders that had “old players skills” did in fact peak earlier and fade faster than the players who had “young players skills.” From ages 21 to 23 the two groups of players were equal in value, 614 Win Shares for the “Young” players, 615 for the “Old” players. But from ages 24-26 the players with “old” skills had 7% less value (1482-1379), and as time passed the gap widened steadily… from ages 31-33 they had 10% less value (1340-1207).

From the mouth of a legend. We can’t take that number as a lock-down predictor, but it seems safe to say that a 31-year-old Cust is at least 10% more likely to decline faster than a player with a nice batting average and tons of steals. And there are some other signs of decline there anyway: his HR/FB and line drive rates are in a three-year decline, which would be more worrisome if they weren’t still decent last year (17.7% HR/FB and 19.8% line drive rate in 2009).

So that trip down memory lane was a roundabout way to say that fantasy owners should probably not expect a “bounce-back” season from Cust, and shouldn’t draft him expecting a return to his .500 slugging percentage days. The older he gets, and the closer that home run total inches to 20, the less likely he will provide enough value elsewhere to offset his always-poor batting average. Cust is an exponentially riskier play as every year passes, thanks to starting out with “old people skills.” (In case you were wondering, Adam Dunn just turned 30.)

Still on the road visiting family and friends, I spent some time thinking about the upcoming year. I would guess I am not alone in the practice. Combining the look forward with some thankfulness for the friends and family on the interwebbings, I thought it was time to put forth my New Year’s Fantasy Resolutions.

1) I will be prepared for the upcoming fantasy season.
Using all the resources at my disposal, I will be ready for every draft that comes my way. Using the Bill James and fan projections on this site, I will navigate between the more sobering projections and the rosiest of outlooks to find the true way. I’ll check out the tiered rankings, get a dollop of the Deep League Value pieces, take a heaping spoonful of 2010 Sleeper spotlights, a couple servings of Free Agent Impact posts, and make sure I haven’t Forgotten anything on the way out. Oh, of course I have – seconds will include these great BABIP-xBABIP and ERA-xFIP split articles that can double as easy sleeper lists. And of course, there’s more on the way to help me dominate my fantasy leagues in the future.

2) I will remember to give thanks for all these wonderful helpers.
I won’t forget to let Marc Hulet know that his prospect pieces keep me on top of more players than I ever thought I would. I won’t hesitate to profess my man-love for Carson Cistulli, whether he hits the nail right on the head or slips and nicks his thumb a bit. While Dave Cameron may not help my fantasy teams so often, his insights into baseball always keep me thinking. Dave Allen will continue to blow me away with his beautiful visualizations, and he should know that. Don’t let Jack Moore slip, his piece on the save was a great one, David Appleman deserves our gratitude daily, and RJ – well RJ will get his own resolution all for himself.

3) I will play every day for the entire season.
I won’t disappear on a flagging team and leave all my trade offers to wilt. I won’t forget to set my lineups, and I will constantly monitor the wire. I will analyze and re-analyze my teams strengths and weaknesses, and I will make offers and wheel and deal until the final day. I owe that much to the people in my league, and I also know one fact: even second-to-last is better than LAST.

4) I will not rosterbate.
I told you RJ Anderson (and to be fair, draysbay.com) would get his own resolution. Number 3) and 4) are the yin to each other’s yang – you want to be active, but you don’t want to be shuttling players in and out (unless you are in a streamer league). Fantasy (and, to be fair, real baseball) success is predicated on the delicate balance the over- and under-valued, so learning when to cut a player is the hardest lesson in the business. I will refine my approach and do my best to drop only those players that will not help my team the way I need them to.

5) I will not draft the hot young rookie just to show off.*
* This was stolen from a fine young Nano Di Fino, writing for the Wall Street Journal last year. I will let him speak for himself.

Let’s not get too carried away. That’s a fine group of five resolutions I can possibly keep. Check back in a month or so to see if I kept the pounds off.

When we checked the center field position and created tiered rankings, there were a few players that were suggested as possible values at the position.

Carlos Gomez and Cameron Maybin could provide some nice speed – at the cost of risking your batting average. Since the rankings were for rotisserie baseball, that risk pushed those players off of the rankings.

But what if we were talking about head-to-head baseball, where punting a category is a strategy many deep leaguers employ? In such a format, you are competing in ten categories every week and can easily ‘punt’ a category if it provides an advantage elsewhere. Imagine the value you could get out of eschewing batting average – your lineup could employ Jimmy Rollins, Mark Reynolds, Adam Dunn, and Jayson Werth, all without the problems that lineup would normally entail.

With that strategy in mind, is Chris Young a viable option in 2010? If Bill James is to be believed, Youngs’ power and speed could return and answer that question affirmatively. The fans have yet to chime in (but should take this chance to give their input).

After famously being demoted to the minor leagues last year, Young returned to a post-All-Star-break line that could help batting-average-punters (.236/.343/.444) – at least in the power department. He didn’t steal a base. We can be forgiven for feeling confused.

Looking at his plate discipline stats may just muddy the waters. Every statistic is going in a different direction. His strikeout rate has gotten steadily worse (24.8% in 2007 to 30.7% last year), but he’s reaching less often (22.9% in 2007 to 18.0% last year). Perhaps it’s all about his contact rate, which is definitely getting worse (79.7% in 2006 to 73.9% last year), but there are plenty of players that succeed with a 75-ish% contact rate (Evan Longoria and Adrian Gonzalez most prominently), and with his still-strong walk rate (9.1% career, 12% in 2009), he has his good qualities.

There’s also something interesting going on with Young’s take rate. As RJ pointed out, Young takes a lot of pitches in the zone, and a good portion of those pitches could have been called balls last year. But again, Victor Martinez and Chris Coghlan both also took about 40% of the pitches they saw in the zone, and they had pretty good years last year.

It may just be that a player that both takes a lot of pitches in the zone and doesn’t make contact is going to have a hard time in major league baseball. Let’s set the bar at Young’s career levels of swinging in the zone (around 60%) and contact rate (around 76%). How many other players in the last two years have had good seasons with those rates?

Last year, the list was short: Mike Cameron, Jason Bay and Brandon Inge all had passable years sporting percentages close to Young’s numbers (but none took as many pitches in the zone, with Cameron swinging the least at 63.7%). In 2008, it was Jason Bay and Mike Cameron again (but Bay made contact on 77.1% of his pitches, and Cameron swung at more pitches than Young.)

It looks like we have a (rather obvious) comp in Mike Cameron then. Except that if you compare Cameron’s career numbers in the two categories (63.9% Z-swing%, 75.4% contact rate), you’ll notice he doesn’t take as many pitches in the zone. He also plays solid center field defense (+5.7 UZR/150 in CF, career).

And you have your two things to work on for Chris Young the Outfielder. In order to be Mike Cameron, he needs to swing at more pitches in the zone and play better defense. Then he’ll always have a place on the field. The good news is that Young swung at more pitches in the zone last year than he did the previous two years. The bad news is that his defense needs to take a serious step forward this year (-4.9 UZR/150 in CF, career). The good news means that he may be ownable in the right league next year. The bad news means that he won’t be ownable in any keeper leagues going forward if the defense doesn’t improve.

After we checked center field this week, reactions were immediate and in favor of some of the names that didn’t quite make the top 15. These reactions were not without reason, because the position was surprisingly deep, especially if speed is the desired commodity.

The biggest hub-ub was raised in favor of Colby Rasmus, who is most certainly the best real-life player that didn’t make the list. His combination of plus defense in centerfield (+13.4 UZR/150) and developing offense (.311 wOBA) was already worth more than two wins for the Cardinals. But offense is the name of the game in fantasy, and his .251 batting average and modest speed (three stolen bases) last year were not good enough to roster in most mixed leagues.

The fans have rosy expectations for the player (outpacing the Bill James projections for once), and given his minor league stats, there’s reason for the optimism. As a youngster in most levels (he’s 23 now), he put up a nice combined line of .277/.366/.485 with power (.208 ISO) and speed (74 stolen bases, 81% success rate). But his batting averages also dropped with every successive promotion in the minor leagues, and batting average is the main difference between the Jamesian projections and those of the fans.

So will he hit .269 and recover some of the speed he showed in the minors and approximate a young Carlos Beltran next year? or will he hit .253 and make owning him a difficult proposition in 5×5 roto play? The key seems to be BABIP. James has him with a modest number for a man with wheels (.279). His batted ball profile last year (.284 BABIP, 19.6% line drive rate) seems to suggest he was slightly unlucky (.307 xBABIP) and that the fans’ BABIP projection (.314) is more reasonable. Given Rasmus’ pedigree, and his demonstrated power and speed, there are few late-round upside picks that are as exciting. Just draft Rasmus as your fourth outfielder in order to mitigate the batting average risk.

Dexter Fowler is another interesting name that didn’t quite make the list. The concern with Fowler is that Carlos Gonzalez played better defense in center field according to UZR and also outperformed Fowler at the plate in the second half. One thing that Fowler really needs to work on is his strikeout rate (26.8% in 2009) and his minor league numbers (23.7%) seem to suggest he can cut the Ks. If the Rockies don’t trade their outfield surplus, however, Fowler could find himself as the fourth outfielder that starts only against lefties (.850 career OPS vs. lefties). Regardless, Fowler’s pedigree with the scouting community should give him the benefit of the doubt if he finds himself battling with Seth Smith for time. Just realize that as it stands now, depending on Fowler for speed on your roto team is fraught with some risk.

Chris Young is an interesting outfielder, but he deserves a whole post of his own. Instead, let’s give a short shout-out to the new Reds centerfielder, Drew Stubbs. Though he strikes out too much (27.2% last year) to produce a great batting average, he has plus speed (6.1 speed score, 10 stolen bases, 71.4% success rate) that can actually improve. Consider that he’s bettered last year’s speed score in five out of six minor league seasons, and Bill James’ projections (51 stolen bases) don’t seem as outlandish as they might upon first blush. Deep leaguers looking for cheap speed need to remember this name.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders and left fielders.)

These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

There might be some grumblings about putting Matt Kemp into a tier of his own. The fact is, he’s the closest to .300 30/30 out there and that means something. Even with the eventual bounce back that both Grady Sizemore (.276 BABIP in 09, .308 xBABIP in 09, .317 career BABIP) and Curtis Granderson (.276 BABIP in 09, .301 xBABIP in 09, .323 career BABIP) will be getting in the average department, they both should fall short of those hallowed numbers. Kemp just needs a few more fly balls to leave the yard, and with his increasing fly ball totals and HR/FB ratios, it doesn’t take much squinting to get him there.

Carlos Beltran doesn’t quite have the speed to join the top tier, but injury concerns aside, he’s pretty much the definition of the second tier. Before last year, he’d cleared 600 plate appearances for eight straight years, so he’s a decent bet as a value pick once the first two rounds are complete. Jacoby Ellsbury is in the news a lot these days, has more speed than anyone on the list, but also has very little power and may be destined for a new position. You could pick him if you are getting plus power from a position on the infield, though, and not miss a beat.

Josh Hamilton’s position in the tier may be the most tenuous. The injury concerns are real (469 average PAs over the last three years), and speed is probably not part of the package any more (20 stolen bases and 7 caught stealings career). I would definitely be tempted to wait on him and pick the surging Carlos Gonzalez instead. CarGo rode a .320/.384/.608 second half (with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases) into our collective consciousness. One of the main reasons for his effectiveness was that he cut down his strikeouts (23.2% in second half, 26% career), and we know he has the tools to continue producing should the refined approach continue. Bucs wunderkind Andrew McCutchen and O’s rising star Adam Jones help fill the Upside Tier, a trough that many knowledgeable readers will be dipping into next year. With Jones’ tiny walk rate (5.6% career) I just see a little more risk there. We’ve written extensively on B.J. Upton, who may yet have books written about him. Suffice it to say that his oscillating power (ISOs ranging from .046 to .209) and BABIPs (.312 to .399) make him risky.

The next tier we might as well call the “No-Power-All-Speed” tier. With his terrible 2008, of course there’s a reason to doubt Michael Bourn, but his walk rate, BABIP and line drive percentage all finally approached his minor league rates. He might have just found himself on the major league level finally, and he looks to have the best speed of this bunch. Otherwise, there’s not really much difference between Bourn, Nyjer Morgan and Rajai Davis. Take your pick.

The last tier is looking for redemption in some cases. Shane Victorino is being grounded slightly by his splits (.749 career OPS vs righties) but also by rumors that Placido Polanco will take his position in the lineup for reasons unclear. He still could provide tremendous value if he gets drafted at this tier position. It’s unclear why he stole fewer bases as his success rate (79.6%) and speed score (7.5) are still elite. Torii Hunter will get some love in the comments, perhaps, but his BABIP was at a nine-year high last year, and if his average drops, his 20/20 prowess looks a little less sexy. If batting average is not a concern, he’s a decent pickup late in the game. Vernon Wells just needs more space than we have here.

This position was deeper than I expected. Young players like Colby Rasmus, Dexter Fowler, and Franklin Gutierrez could all join the big boys with some steps forward in their games. All of them already make decent bench picks even in mixed leagues.

We checked out right field this week and found that once again the outfield provides serious value late in the rankings. Jermaine Dye, the fourteenth-ranked outfielder in those rankings, is a good bet for close to 30 home runs and a decent batting average next year. But let’s take a look at some of the guys that will be fringe picks in most mixed leagues. They’ll be relevant in most leagues.

J.D. Drew got some love from Big Oil in the comments, and rightly so. At first glance, he had an almost exactly average JD Drew season last year. His wOBA (.389 in 2009, .386 career), BABIP (.320 last year, .321 career), OPS (.914 last year, .896 career), O-Swing % (15.3% in 2009, 15.8% career) and walk rate (15.4% in 2009, 14.7% career) are all eerily close to his career averages. So if it wasn’t a lucky year, he should be a lock for a .280 average and 20+ home runs in 500 plate appearances – and therefore a boon to players that can change their lineups daily.

That is not to say that Drew is without his own asterisks. There’s always the health question with him, as he’s averaged only 480 plate appearances a year for his entire career. Last year, his speed score dropped dramatically, from 5.2 in 2008 (5 is average) down to 3.7. Bill James seems to think the drop is a harbinger for a lower BABIP and a lower batting average in 2010 and projects a batting average about ten points lower than the fans do. Looking at Drew’s batted ball profile – he’s hitting more fly balls every season – it does seem to follow that he’s hitting more like a prototypical slugger as he ages. It’s possible his batting average drops next year, but with a five-year high in ISO in 2009, it’s possible that he makes up for the missing hits with a little extra power.

Kyle Blanks is an all-or-nothing hitter that hits like a prototypical slugger already. The Shaq-like (285 pounds!), afro-sporting behemoth of a first baseman will be manning the outfield (poorly), striking out (37.2% in 2009), and punishing the ball for the Padres next year (.264 ISO). The good news is that he should be able to improve that strikeout rate considering his 22.3% strikeout percentage in the minor leagues. If he can get that rate under 30%, he should be able to bring the batting average to a respectable level so that his fantasy owners can enjoy his power without pummeling their batting average.

A lot has been written about Alex Rios over the past year, and he’s certainly a lightning rod for discussion. Because he’s once hit 24 home runs and stolen 32 bases in his career, he’s been saddled with some unreasonable projections that had him challenging for .300/30/30 numbers. He’s just not that kind of player, though, as his groundball percentage (42.8%) is just too high for him to produce real power. On the other hand, the speed is real (76.9% career success rate) and by all accounts he had an unlucky year last year (.277 BABIP in 2009, .321 xBABIP in 2009, .323 BABIP career). If you revise those old predictions to a more realistic .280/20/20, you’ll likely find yourself pleased at years-end.

Elijah Dukes deserves a mention despite the fact that his speed is not currently playing at the major league level (50% success rate) and he just can’t stay healthy. But some year he just might stay healthy, and if you prorate Bill James’ projections for him to 500 at-bats, you’re looking at a .263/17/13 player that will probably cost you very little. He’s periodically shown ISOs over .200, and the James projection only has him at .176 in that department, so there’s even a sliver of upside in those power numbers.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, and left fielders.)

These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

The tier-of-his-own player in right field is Justin Upton, and I doubt there will be too much grumbling about this ranking for a guy who hit .300 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases in his firs full year. Sure, we may talk a little about his high BABIP (.364), but for now let’s just look at the fan projections and sigh.

That should end the easy portion of our rankings today. Perhaps this is just a little self-pity in anticipation of the comments thread, but the next two tiers could be a single tier, or could be three tiers, and could probably be re-arranged ad infinitum. We’ll give Ichiro! Suzuki credit for his BABIP and (sexy) infield-hitting prowess which are perfect for the right fantasy team.

Now come the players that are impossible to rank. Where do you put a guy like Nelson Cruz, who will give you great power and speed, but will hurt your batting average? Could he be any more different from Shin-Soo Choo, who is is solid across the board but won’t win you a single category? Bobby Abreu is in the Choo-mold, but we’ll move him back a little for the waning power and, to be frank, his old age and body type. It hasn’t hurt him yet, but someday, well it just has to. Right?

I don’t think blame can be attributed for seeing a separation after Abreu. While Nick Markakis is a metronome, his steady ticking doesn’t provide much beyond a .300 average and 20 home runs. The steals in 2007 have proved to be an aberration, and while he may get a power spike some year, there’s no way to predict it. Andre Ethier should, with a better BABIP (.292 in 2009, .316 xBABIP, .322 career BABIP), have a better batting average next year, but is the power real? When Bill James shaves seven home runs off your total, you should take notice. He may not hit 40+% fly balls next year. Some will complain about Jayson Werth’s placement, because he certainly looks like a Nelson-Cruz-lite, and they might be right. But Werth has had issues with staying on the field, and with his batting average and strikeout issues, the tier seems right.

Jay Bruce may just zoom up the charts next year and make his ranking seem silly, but at least the fans are backing my sense that we should temper our enthusiasm on the young slugger just a tad. He does seem like a great upside play, better than the young but inconsistent Hunter Pence behind him, who has seemingly showed us his best already. Brad Hawpe has some strikeout issues, some defense issues, and never really showed the power we thought he might. Forgive me for not believing in the simultaneous spike in both flyball rate (39.6% in 2009, 35.7% career) and HR/FB (17.1% in 2009, 12.9% career) and agreeing with the projections that say Michael Cuddyer’s power may subside next year.

The last tier is not very exciting in my mind. Nick Swisher’s batting average ranges from awful to terrible, Jermaine Dye is getting older and posted a six-year low in line drive percentage (16.9%), Garrett Jones was a 28-year-old rookie who had done nothing before 2007 in the minor leagues, and Magglio Ordonez, well we all saw what happened there. In fact, I would rather wait until the end of the draft to pick someone off of the “just off” list, so the Deep League Value piece this Sunday will feature some gems.

We checked in on left field this week, and now it’s time to take a look at some of the guys that didn’t make the mixed-league cut but will provide value in deeper leagues. Left field continues to provide value down here on this section of the list.

It was hard to fit Travis Snider in the top fifteen fantasy left fielders for 2010, but he has upside to reach far into the top ten. We already talked about how he needs to cut down the strikeouts (32.2% career), but he may not have that much improvement left in that category, considering his minor league numbers (28.7% career). The power looks real though – his ISO is already good (.175) and has the chance to get better, as he had better ISOs in the minors. An okay batting average and some home runs are on the way – Toronto currently has Jose Bautista and his lifetime .238 batting average penciled in for an outfield spot.

Carlos Guillen got some love in the comments thread, but is in the midst of a three-year decline in most of his categories and has averaged only 400 at-bats over the last two years. Now he’s the full-time left fielder according to his manager, so at least his role is defined. There was some good news last year when he came back – his ISO rebounded from a terrible 2008. If his BABIP hadn’t been terrible (.267), then he might have looked okay. Given 500 plate appearances, he could put together another year with a .800+ OPS and 20 or so home runs. Don’t pay full price, though, because of his brittleness.

Seth Smith is the younger, better talent than Guillen, but he has no defined role until Brad Hawpe leaves town. Right now, I’d rather pick Chase Headley or Chris Coghlan over Smith despite their relative lack of power next to the Rockies’ left field youngster. Headley and Coghlan have a starting role on their teams, no matter what their faults are.

Headley and Coghlan both have different faults, but are promising. Headley’s name isn’t as prominent right now, so he’ll probably return a better value by providing more power at a cheaper price. The knock on him used to be the strikeouts (27% career), but he made good strides last year in that department (24.5%). The former third baseman is a little puzzling – he has a high career BABIP (.340) that was formerly propped up by his line drive rates (24.5% in 2008) and slipped to .326 this year with a poor line drive rate (16.5%). His xBABIP last year was .317 last year and .326 for his career, so he has been slightly lucky, but not extremely so. The fact remains that his career away split (.301/.368/.437 in 492 ABs) shows his upside, which is worth chasing.

Coghlan is coming off a great debut, and is worth a mid-round pick should Dan Uggla move on and vacate second base in Florida. He’s certainly a good hitter – his walk rate (9.5%) and strikeout rate (15.3%) were both great and also in line with his minor league work. The speed is there (72 stolen bases and 18 caught stealings in the minor leagues) so despite his poor rate last year (62% success rate), he should be good for the 20 stolen bases James predicts, if not more as he learns the nuances of major league pitchers. Just don’t go expecting more power, his minor league .153 ISO probably presents his upside (.139 last year). If his Rookie of the Year hardware doesn’t zoom him up in drafts (past where a .300-hitting 10/25 player should go), he’s obviously a good player wherever he plays.