We’ve dissected the Cliff Lee deal like it’s already done, and from both sides of the deal, so let’s continue on in that vein and look at the pitcher that the Mariners are most likely to call up to replace Lee as early as tonight in Seattle. Even if it’s not the Yankees, the Mariners look like they want to trade Lee before the All-Star break to get the most possible value, so Pineda should be up soon.

The green and gray certainly hope that Michael Pineda day doesn’t end up pinata-like, but by all accounts it should be more of a commencement than a trial by fire. The 21-year-old came into the season as the fifth-best Mariner’s prospect by resident maven Marc Hulet’s standards. Here’s what he said at the time:

A beast on the mound at 6’5” 250 lbs, Pineda was let down by his elbow in ’09 as his season was interrupted in mid-May and he did not return until August. The elbow soreness that he experienced is cause for concern going forward, but the right-hander has a bright future ahead of him if he can put the issue behind him. Just 20 in ’09, Pineda posted a 2.73 FIP in 10 appearances (eight starts) in high-A despite playing in a good hitter’s league. He allowed just 29 hits in 44.1 innings of work and showed outstanding control for his age with a walk rate of 1.22 BB/9. His low-90s fastball and good (but inconsistent) slider helped him post a strikeout rate of 9.74 K/9. It will be interesting to see if the organization returns Pineda to high-A in 2010 or pushes him to double-A.

What happened this year is exactly what Mariners fans hoped for and Hulet pointed to as his most important chore this year: Pineda proved he was healthy by not only dominating Double-A on his second attempt (9.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9), but by also mowing down Triple-A hitters after a promotion (12.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9). He looks ready to go.

In fact, looking at his career numbers (8.6 K/9, 2.0 BB/9), it might be tempting to label him a control artist with okay stuff, but it has been his work at the higher levels, and this year, which has pushed him into elite territory as a prospect. If the rankings were to come out today, he might just be first, if only because his lowest strikeout rate above Double-A was this year’s 9.1 at Double-A.

As for how he might fare in the bigs, there are two minor pink flags to consider. First, Pineda did have the elbow injury last year, so he didn’t accrue many innings, and only put up 138.1 innings combined in 2008. He’s already at 96 innings this year, and 120% of 138.1 is 165. Even if this is no hard cap on his innings, it’s reasonable to assume that he won’t put in another 100 innings in the second half and will have his innings limited at some point.

The other minor flaw in his repertoire has been the slight tendency towards fly balls as he’s risen in the minor leagues. His overall groundball percentage is decent (46%), but this year, the numbers haven’t looked as good. This year, 42.3% of his balls have guzzled grass, and at each stop from high-A to Triple-A, his groundball percentage has dropped. A number like his Triple-A groundball percentage (36.6%) would be a problem in the major leagues. Even this pink flag has its own caveat, however, as SafeCo is a safe haven for flyballers. According to StatCorner, the park has a 93 park factor for home runs by right-handers, and that number drops to 87 for lefties.

Given the lack of offense behind him, and the chance that the Mariners limit his pitches as well as his innings, Pineda does not make for a good choice for wins. On the other hand, the park should help him continue to develop, and nothing terrible leaps out from his pristine numbers. He’s a strong pickup in deeper leagues, and if he performs well in his first start against a good offense from New York, he’ll even be relevant in mixed leagues for his strikeouts and ratios alone.

We’ve updated both the shortstops and the second basemen fairly recently, so it’s time to take a look at a deep-league middle infield option. Full disclosure: I own Mark Ellis in the Blog Wars fantasy league put on by FanGraphs user/commenter MDS or Million Dollar Sleeper. So this is a completely self-serving look at whether or not I have ‘solved’ my middle infield situation. I hope you get some use out of it, hah.

First, the good news. The batting average looks safe. Not only is Ellis walking about the same as ever (8.8% 2010, 8.3% career) and striking out a little less (13.4% 2010, 15.3% career), but his BABIP is neutral as well (.309 2010, .290 career). He’s reaching a little much (29.8% 2010, 21.3% career), but making the same amount of contact overall (85.7% 2010, 85.5% career). We also have to remember that the league-wide reach rate (28.6%) is up big from last year (25.1%), so his absolute reach rate, or difference between his reach rate and the league reach rate, has gone down this year from last year. He hasn’t changed much.

The overall plate discipline package looks like one that is about average everywhere except in one spot. Ellis can make contact with pitches in the zone at an above average rate. How’s that for a niche – it should go on page one of his agent’s presentation. His zone contact percentage rate has been steadily and significantly above-average across his career, and this year is no different (96.2% zone contact, 88.1% league-wide average). With his average walk rate in hand, and above-average ability to make contact on balls in the zone, Ellis should always put up a middling batting average when his BABIP is neutral. His career numbers in those regards (.290 career BABIP, .266 career batting average) provide good sign posts as they usually do.

In our league, which sports 15 owners and 31 roster spots (including CI, MI, and five OFs), any middle infielder that starts and puts up a decent batting average is ownable. For example, the best MI available on the wire, ranked by ownership, are Yuniesky Betancourt (74 wRC+), Omar “All-Star” Infante (93 wRC+), and Adam Kennedy (84 wRC+). That’s a craptacular grab bag of mediocrity, and Ellis’ 98 wRC+ stacks up well against all of them.

On the other hand, the almost-regular Infante could put up a better batting average (.268 career, but over .293 over the past three years) even though his BABIP right now (.370) is propping up his current average. The line separating Ellis from meh waiver wire fill-in at a position (like Infante) and an actual strong pickup is populated with counting stats. Can he put up some power or speed?

Short answer: not really. His career ISO (.139) is below-average for all of the MLB (usually around .155), and would be just about average for a batting-average qualifying second baseman this year (.138). He may barely crack double-digit home runs in an average year, but probably not this year. He’s putting a career-low percentage of his balls in the air (34.7% this year, 42.1% career), and yet he’s also sporting a career-low HR/FB rate (3.8% this year, 6.9% career). But maybe his 2010 ISO (.081), which is not yet accrued in a significant-enough sample size, will regress towards his career number and allow him to crack 10 home runs.

If he was a speedster, the power would be forgivable from a fantasy standpoint. And Ellis’ last two season have produced his career-high stolen base totals (14 and 10 respectively), so maybe Ellis will actually crack double-digits in that category. His speed scores (3.3 this year, 4.7 career, 5.0 average) don’t scream ‘speed demon,’ but at least he’s successful when he goes (75%) so he should continue to put up the odd steal. He’s batting seventh, so he’ll have some chances to steal in front of poor batters, but he’s no speedster at the top of the lineup. On the other hand, the overall suckitude of the A’s lineup (11th in the AL in runs) will keep his contributions in runs and RBI down.

Still, Mark Ellis is really just a filler. In a league as deep as ours, it’s important to have at least an average major league starter in each of your positions, and Ellis can be that. His lack of upside in the counting stats, however, soften any further impact he might have.

I still can’t find anything, and my earthly belongings are on a truck somewhere between New York and California – with New York being more likely despite me being in California. Ain’t moving grand? That said, let’s get on to the meat of the matter. To the Waiver Wire, dudes!

Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians (42%)
This should serve as a reminder that Cabrera is still alive. The team has already begun talking about a rehab assignment, and he may be back soon after the All-Star break. Maybe the injury will sap some of his power, but it’s not like Cabrera was smacking the stuffing out of the ball anyway (.081 ISO) and power is not really his game. His feet should be fine – although one stolen base in 140+ 2010 plate appearances doesn’t inspire confidence. So wait, why do we like him? Well, Cabrera can put up a nice batting average (.287 career) and plays at a tough position. There are plenty of owners out there looking at worse situations at shortstop, and if they wanted to get ahead of the game and owned an open DL spot, they could drop their current shortstop, pick up Cabrera, and then pick up Jason Donald (1% owned in Yahoo leagues) for the meantime. Emulating the Cleveland Indians isn’t usually the way to go, but in this case, it should make for a player with a decent batting average at the very least. While Donald’s walk rate is not inspiring (4.9%), he doesn’t strike out much (18.2%) and his BABIP (.330) is not out of line for a man with his above-average wheels or current line drive percentage (22.9%). It looks like he can continue putting up the stats that he’s sporting right now in the short-term future.

Jayson Nix, Cleveland Indians (1% owned)
Hey, it’s Cleveland Indians’ Middle Infield Day! Chalk this up as a win for deep league owners, as most mixed leaguers will want to stay clear of the Cleveland ‘situation.’ Carson Cistulli noted that a) Cleveland’s lineup is wicked young; and b) Nix will be in the mix going forward. Young lineups and bad teams mean opportunities for fantasy managers, and if Nix wins the playing time at second base, he will be more than relevant in deeper leagues given his ability to put up above-average power (.185 ISO this year, .190 last) for a middle infielder. He even has a little speed (10 stolen bases, 2 caught stealing in 2009). Donald will shift over from shortstop once Cabrera returns and should give Nix a run for his money, but at some point, Nix’ batted ball luck will have to change. Do you know that his career BABIP is .234? That’s putrid. Even coming in 451 plate appearances, that is not sustainable. Yes, he’s a fly-ball hitter (48.3% career), and fly balls have worse BABIPs, but this is just ridiculous. Perhaps he needs to work on his line drive stroke (13.1% career, 10.6% this year), but the best news right now is that he has playing time for two weeks and the chance to catch fire. Long term, it’s either Donald that wins at the position, ostensibly for his defense, or as Satchel Price pointed out in his excellent “2013” series, Jason Kipnis for his good-looking bat.

It’s a holiday weekend, and in the honor of National Lampoon and holiday/family misadventures everywhere, let’s lead this off with a song and a couple of players that might help fantasy owners on the run:

Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers (37% owned)
Trolling for saves is no exact science. We’ve tried using strikeout rates, walk rates, leverage index, ‘thinking stupid,’ and even fingers in the wind to predict closers in the past. Put this post in the latter category. John Axford has done nothing wrong – well, not quite nothing, he does own a 4.50 walk rate that might make sustaining his current performance level difficult, especially if it starts to approach his higher walk rates of the past – but sometimes doing nothing wrong is not good enough. Even though he hasn’t blown a save yet, and is probably the future at the position for Milwaukee, there’s the little matter of the former closer behind him. Not only has Hoffman turned in eight straight innings with only one run surrendered, but he’s also only four saves short of 600. Milwaukee might turn to the Hoff to boost late-season attendance in his run at glory. Stranger things have happened, and Axford owners at the very least should pick up the legendary change-piecer.

Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies (5% owned)
Sometimes you just have to keep plucking that chicken. About a month ago, we recommended Fowler in this space, and he promptly sucked for a while and was sent down. Well, at least he raked… in AAA. In 124 plate appearances, he put up a .340/.435/.566 that showed his team that he had little to figure out in the minor leagues. He’s still a member of one of the more crowded houses in the league, as Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Carlos Gonzalez and Brad Hawpe are all are above-average hitters. Fowler is strong against lefties, though, and in a worst-case scenario, he’ll be a caddy for Smith against lefties. However, Todd Helton has lost all his power (.066 ISO) and is a terrible offensive first baseman right now. The team might best be served (even defensively) by putting Hawpe at first many days, which would open up more at-bats for Fowler. In any case, Fowler has been up and has been playing. He’s played in every game since he’s come back up, and was six for his last eight. Guess finally trying out AAA for the first time did him some good. With his five-tool upside, he’s worth a flier in deeper leagues for sure.

Sitting here on the empty floor of my new home in California, my future is cloudy. It seems like it’s time to make a run and living, and writing, in the best state in the union (apologies New York, but take away one city and you fall behind a bit). Why live if not while doing the thing you love in your favorite place? Oh, and it’s time to update the shortstop rankings since it’s been a while since we last visited that part of the diamond. That much I do know.

The Big Three:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.383 wOBA, .404 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
2. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.334 wOBA, .360 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.378 wOBA, .352 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

It really looks like it’s time to do this. Derek Jeter is on pace to break his own personal record in ground balls, isn’t stealing bases at the clip that he manages in his good years, and isn’t putting up the other-worldly BABIPs of recent years. At his age, he’s always a candidate to slow down, and suddenly it seems like this is the year. If he isn’t going to have the plus batting average, his poor home run and stolen base totals look a lot less exciting.

As wrong as we might have been for pushing Jeter into the top tier for his excellent start, we were as right about keeping Jose Reyes near the top despite his poor first month. After an excellent June, Reyes looks like the man he used to be, and when he bags an extra 25 steals or so over Jeter, he’ll overcome any other advantages the elder New York shortstop has on him.

Another move at the top brings a healthy Rollins into the fold. He’s been a top-3 guy for some time, but his main fault is always there: he’s a bit of a batting average risk year-in and year-out. If the legs are iffy this year, he’s a risk to drop still.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.338 wOBA, .353 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
5. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.333 wOBA, .331 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.359 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
7. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.386 wOBA, .368 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
8. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.334 wOBA, .338 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Other than Jeter moving down, this tier is fairly uneventful. Andrus looks good, and with his speed might be able to maintain some of his strong BABIP, but he has almost negative power. All those grass guzzlers won’t turn into home runs any time soon, no matter how fast he is. Zobrist is looking like a Jeter-lite, or maybe a young Jeter, but the runs totals aren’t quite there yet. Drew is having a tough year, beset with injuries and some struggles against lefties. Not quite the peak year breakout that seemed like it could be on the way. We’ll keep him around for his upside a little longer, but not a whole lot longer.

The Leftovers:
9. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.384 wOBA, .344 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
10. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.294 wOBA, .328 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
11. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles (.315 wOBA, .322 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta (.301 wOBA, .336 ZiPS wOBA)
13. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.328 wOBA, .348 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
14. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.307 wOBA, .332 ZiPS wOBA)
15. Ian Desmond, Washington (.291 wOBA, .319 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Alex Gonzalez, Toronto (.344 wOBA, .302 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

It’s time to drop Jason Bartlett from the list. He’s losing time to Reid Brignac versus righties, and even if his BABIP regresses and gets his batting average up closer to .280, he’s just not showing any power and has three stolen bases on the year. Not much to like there.

We keep looking for a reason to move Alcides Escobar back onto the list, but at least Ian Desmond is playing every day and providing a tiny bit of power and speed for his owners. Miguel Tejada, on the other hand, might be seeing his long run of consecutive starts come to an end if upstart prospect Josh Bell can show his stuff at the major league level. Baltimore is, of course, looking to the future, and Tejada won’t be a part of that future.

Before I set off on my move to California and give my teary-eyed goodbyes to New York City, there’s time for one last waiver wire piece. I’ll have to take a break for the next week as things are about to get really hectic, but as I’ve been wont to do, I’ll focus on some deep league options. Because if you’re here, you’re probably playing in at least one league where you’ll consider these guys, warts and all.

Jeff Francis, Colorado (13% owned)
I’ll have to admit I was skeptical when Brian Joura touted Francis as a $1 option in March. I remained skeptical when he showed a sub-five strikeout rate after taking a year off for surgery. In my heart of hearts, I still am skeptical. But here’s the thing, Francis is doing some things right. He’s not getting that lucky, as his BABIP (.282) and strand rate (71.1%) are fine. He’s just not walking people (1.88 BB/9), and keeping the ball on the ground at a career-high rate (50.8%). The pitching mix has changed a bit, as he’s throwing his bad fastball (-39.9 runs career) the least he has in his career (57.4% this year, 62.6% career), and that has to count as a positive. Of course, the bee in the bonnet is his career-best home run rate (0.47 HR/9), which is built on the back of his HR/FB number (4.8%) that xFIP (obviously) doesn’t think is sustainable (4.26 xFIP, compared to his 3.44 FIP). Here’s the thing, though. Not only is that xFIP tied for his career-best, but you could easily double Francis’ home runs to date (two) and he’d still be having a great year. Francis is a decent option for your bench in most formats, although I’d retain my skepticism in mixed leagues.

Rick Ankiel, Kansas City (4% owned)
If you’re in a deep league with five outfield spots, you might just own someone worse than Rick Ankiel. As with many deep league waiver candidates, there are plenty of reasons not to like the converted pitcher who is roaming the outfield in powder blue. His major fault has even been magnified this year, as his poor strikeout rate (26.3% career) has crossed over into terrible territory this year (35.5%). No matter, you don’t own him for his batting average, you own him for his power, like (ostensibly) the Royals do. The best news about Ankiel is that it looks like that power is back (.210 ISO) after a down year last year (.156 ISO). He also has had a decent rehab assignment, hitting for both power and average in Triple-A Omaha. If he comes back and stays healthy, he could put in more at-bats than ZiPs RoS predicts (232) considering the season is not yet at the halfway-point. In deep leagues with divided outfielders, getting 15 or so home runs from your CF might be worth taking the batting average hurt. The power should be there, and therefore the value.

More than a third of the way through the season, let’s see what the list looks like now. To-date wOBA and ZiPs Ros wOBAs included for your pleasure.

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.371 wOBA, .401 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
2. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.439 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.354 wOBA, .365 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
4. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.324 wOBA, .363 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

When you’ve been excellent as long as Chase Utley has, you buy yourself more than a couple months of subpar performance before you give up the top spot (or: if this is what a slump looks like, go get me some pomeade). Ian Kinsler doesn’t quite have the same pedigree, has always had the injuries to contend with, and just has to fall behind Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano because of the AL East second basemens’ beastly seasons to date. If you’re giving up on Utley now, please contact me with trade offers because I’m buying.

Still Strong:
5. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.373 wOBA, .352 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.368 wOBA, .362 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
7. Dan Uggla, Florida (.370 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Had to split tiers here because some of the medium-style second basemen are having worse-than-mediocre seasons. it’s a tough position when you can only really be satisfied with the top seven. Of course, the argument will be made for some of the guys below, but these seven are the only guys that combine track record with help in the counting stats and don’t hurt too bad in any one place. The good news for Ben Zobrist fans is that even with less power, he’s going to be a strong middle infielder going forward.

Could Still be Strong:
8. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.296 wOBA, .328 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
9. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.346 wOBA, .345 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
10. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.332 wOBA, .344 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
11. Aaron Hill, Toronto (.296 wOBA, .329 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

These guys are head-scratchers, and there might plenty of moaning about their spots. The thing is, there are glimmers of hope in each case. Chone Figgins is still walking and stealing bases like last year, he’s just striking out a bit much and doesn’t have a nice BABIP like he usually does. His strikeout rate is up almost 5% over his career number and he’s got his second-worst contact rate of his career, but there’s no guarantee that will continue. If he gets hot and ends up with a .280+ average going forward, and finishes like the Dan Uggla of speed at a tough position, he’ll earn this spot. Aaron Hill has a wacky batted ball profile that should get extended coverage soon, but the power is there. If he ends up with Casey McGehee numbers at the end of the year, it’s clear which of the two you want going forward. Rickie Weeks and Ian Stewart will elicit groans from the batting-average lovers, but they do decent work in the counting stats and still could produce mediocre batting averages if they recapture their early-season gains. In a couple weeks, these guys may be re-distributed upwards and downwards (Hill and Stewart, I’m looking in your direction), but I think they merit a little more attention in the meantime.

Flawed but Good:
12. Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.391 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
13. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.345 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
14. Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.369 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Juan Uribe, San Francisco, (.367 wOBA, .341 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.346 wOBA, .343 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
17. Martin Prado, Atlanta (.369 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
18. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City (.320 wOBA, .334 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the tier that holds second basemen that fit needs. If you need power, Kelly Johnson, Ty Wigginton, Juan Uribe and McGehee are your men, but all of them but Uribe (!) have already started to taper off and may yet be replaced in this tier. Our skepticism may have been warranted in McGehee’s case. Martin Prado and Placido Polanco will fit the right batting-average starved team better than many teams on the list above them, but neither is a lock to crack as many as 15 home runs, nor do they have speed. None of the bunch really has the upside to be a complete second baseman (except maybe Uribe?!!).

Upside to Join the Top:
19. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.254 wOBA, .355 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
20. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.310 wOBA, .329 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
21. Ian Desmond, Washington (.311 wOBA, .324 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
22. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.362 wOBA, .346 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
23. Mike Aviles, Kansas City (.321 wOBA, .312 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
24. Felipe Lopez, St Louis (.328 wOBA, .314 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
25. Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.253 wOBA, .328 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
26. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.254 wOBA, .306 ZiPs Ros wOBA)

Brian Roberts continues his long, painful slide and may not be back for another month or two, so it’s hard to place him anywhere but here. Falling along with him are Gordon Beckham and Jose Lopez. When a .597 OPS is ‘picking it up in June,’ it’s hard to be optimistic about Beckham. I still think he’ll get it going, but when is the question, and he’s surely not ownable in the meantime unless you are just stuck with him in a deep league. Repeat that all with a .596 OPS for Lopez, and probably less upside. Ian Desmond and Mike Aviles debut on the list, and have some upside, but Aviles is older than you think, has no power or speed, and Desmond is Kendrick-lite because he has the same lack of counting stats but about half the batting average upside.

It’s terrible to be inside on a Tuesday in the summer, but here are a couple players that will set your mind right by virtually putting you on the pitch to use a world cup metaphor. Either that, or they will help you win your league.

Aaron Heilman, Arizona (9% owned)
The worst bullpen in the majors is moving their closer out of the role according to AJ Hinch today. This, despite Chad Qualls being the only pitcher in the pen with an xFIP under four. Well, no matter, it looks like the team will be giving interim save chances to Heilman, the only pitcher in the bullpen with an FIP under four. Seriously, this pen is terrible – their league-worst ERA (7.33) is almost two runs worse than second-to-last place (Milwaukee, 5.88). The only other option is possibly Esmerling Vazquez, who has the best strikeout rate in the pen (9.53 K/9) but has a correspondingly high walk rate (4.76 BB/9) and a mediocre-to-poor groundball rate (37.3%). At least he doesn’t have Juan Gutierrez problems with the fly ball (27.5%). Last but not least is newcomer Sam Demel, fresh off his trade from Oakland – but let Joe Pawlikowski and David Golebiewski run you through the Arizona ramifications for the big trade today. It seems Demel has some hurdles to clear first, like actually pitching well in the major leagues. In the meantime, there’s Nick Pieocoro, the Arizona Republic beat writer, saying that AJ Hinch announced that Heilman gets the save chances for now, and my more lengthy run-down over at Bloomberg Sports.

James McDonald, Los Angeles (0% owned)
This is pure speculation that is most useful to those in the deepest of leagues. But let me lay out the reasons McDonald might be up soon. First, Chad Billingsley went on the 15-day DL today with a groin strain. Second, the replacement for the injured Vincente Padilla, Ronald Belisario, has started two games since 2007. Third, Vincente Padilla himself just got rocked in his first rehab start and may miss another start to extended rehab. Fourth, McDonald is on the 40-man roster and is currently starting. Sure, he has a 5.05 ERA and 1.51 WHIP right now, but he’s playing in a tough league and and still has 47 strikeout in 46.1 innings so far this year. The only other pitcher at AAA that’s showing anything is Seth Etherton, who is not on the 40-man roster. Etherton is a name to remember, though, because he does have a non-adjusted 3.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts in 36 innings. I don’t see the team wanting to drop an actual prospect from the 40-man to make room for the 33-year-old journeyman Etherton (6.18 major league career FIP). And for those that think that McDonald has no upside, there are two simple numbers that say he should be given another shot: he owns a 9.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 career in the minor leagues. THIS might finally be the year, when they turn to him with no other options and he wasn’t even pitching well in the minors. Stranger things have happened.

Another summer weekend, and another couple of players for your pleasure. Enjoy!

Miguel Montero, Arizona (45%)
If you’ve been reading these Waiver Wire pieces, you know we usually talk about players owned in fewer leagues than Montero. In fact, we’ve even started specializing in single-digit players, to the consternation of some shallow-league owners. Well, here’s a player that, though he’s owned in a fair amount of leagues, should be owned in at least twice as many leagues as he is. Montero put up 670+ plate appearances from 2008 to 2009, and in those PAs, he showed a strikeout rate right at 20%, an ISO above .180, and a strong batting average for a catcher. Put those pieces together and he’s easily a top-twelve catcher and should be owned in all mixed leagues. Now that he’s due back this weekend and is practically begging his team to activate him, it’s time to make sure he’s not on the wire in your league.

David Hernandez, Baltimore (6%)
Don’t fall over yourself to pick up the latest Oriole to accrue a save – it doesn’t seem that others are either. They might have heard that Alfredo Simon was called Shutdown Sauce and that Hernandez couldn’t overcome a nickname like that. There’s even the forgotten footnote Michael Gonzalez rattling around in that bullpen too. Here’s the thing, though. There’s a new sherriff in town – “interim” manager Juan Samuel – and he just recently reported that Gonzalez only hit the mid-80s in his rehab start. Simon’s K/9 in the minor leagues was a mediocre 7.4, so he’s not an obvious candidate for the role. Of course, he racked up those numbers as a starter, and could be expected to bump them up in a short relief role, but still. He was more of a fill-in guy than a person being groomed for the role. So finally we get to Hernandez, who racked up a save and has been pushed to the bullpen by the better prospects coming up behind him. With his gaudy strikeout rates in the minors (10.4 K/9), and his inability to translate those rates to the majors (6.02 K/9 career), Hernandez was a conundrum wrapped in an enigma. He’s certainly a fly ball pitcher in the wrong park (29.2% groundball rate career), and he’s really not showing it as a starter. Here’s thinking that he can recover that nice strikeout rate in short stints and actually step forward as the closer of the future. If Gonzalez truly is only hitting the mid-80s in his rehab, it wouldn’t surprise anyone to hear surgery in his future. Again.

With all the hubub surrounding two nice prospects getting their first licks in the major leagues, let’s not neglect the waiver wire. We all need a little waiver love, and almost none of us have a certain Nationals pitcher on our wire. Instead, let’s look at a couple players that should almost definitely be on your waiver wire today.

Jason Motte, St. Louis (2%)
Okay, maybe if your league counts holds, Motte won’t be available. Then again, he only has four holds on the season, and he probably won’t be closing any time soon unless Ryan Franklin goes down with a (possibly beard-related?) injury. But it’s worth pointing out that Motte has finally harnessed some of his raw power and is pitching the best ball of his career. Coming up through the system, we all knew this converted catcher had gas (95.9 MPH fastball career), but there were questions about his secondary stuff. Questions like: Does he even have another pitch? Well, he’s still throwing the fastball over 70% of the time, so he does like to bring the heat. And he’s gone into extended periods of focusing on the secondary stuff and then forgetting about it. But he’s finally throwing the curveball regularly (10.2% this year), and though linear weights don’t love the pitch yet (-1.1 runs this year), obviously something is working in the overall package. On June 6th, he gave his first run in 9 and 2/3 innings, and during that ten-game stretch, he had a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It’s that nice walk rate (2.31), combined with his booming fastball and developing curve, that makes him an interesting ratios and strikeouts reliever on teams in deeper leagues. Especially if you’re over your innings pace already.

Milton Bradley, Seattle (4% owned)
Yeah, I know. Groan. He’s struggling through a .274 wOBA, 67 wRC+ kind of season. He’s striking out at a career-worst rate (31.4%) and walking at a career-low rate (7.8%). His ISO is his worst since he was in Montreal, and we can’t even blame his BABIP (.283) much. He’s seeing a sports psychologist, and he’s a risk to leave the team at any time. In some ways, there couldn’t be a worse candidate for your fantasy team. All of that is true, and there is very little silver lining. One okay factor is that he still has an average-ish line drive rate (18.3%), and another is that at 32 years old and of above-average athleticism, he’s not so old that we would expect a drop off this precipitous. But the final, most important piece of information regarding Bradley is this: He’s playing. Every day. Even in an 18-team, 5-OF league, all 90 starting outfielders in baseball are relevant, and leagues come deeper than this. Put him on your bench if you can because warm, starting, bodies are valuable if your league is deep enough. Then all you can do is hope he recovers some of his old form. (Hey, the psychologist thing really “worked” for John Smoltz.)