After the post-deadline frenzy, here are some possible names on our wire that might help. We’ll try to hit one player each for leagues of differing depths to maximize our utility here.

Ryan Ludwick, Padres (67% owned)
Ludwick left the Cardinals and suddenly hit waiver wires for no good reason. I’m guessing it’s being blamed on the change in parks and lineups, but neither of those is a strong enough reason to leave a good platoon bat on the waiver wire. For one, the Cardinals have only scored 19 runs more than the Padres this year – surprising, no? Another surprising fact is that the park factor for righties in Petco is not as terrible as you might think. Though it’s a nasty 59 for left-handers, righties still manage a 92 park factor for home runs in the park. Guess what the park factor in St. Louis was for right-handed batters. Yeah, 73. So Ludwick may get a boost in home run production, might have a couple fewer ducks on the pond – this doesn’t sound like an epitaph because it isn’t one. ZiPs RoS calls for his OPS to surge from a decent .827 to a much nicer .914, and I believe it. I’ll take Ludwick as my final outfielder, thank you very much.

Jake Westbrook, Cardinals (7% owned)
Instead of trying to give sand to Dave Duncan and asking for a sandwich, it seems the team has finally given him something nice to work with. Westbrook fits right inside Duncan’s wheelhouse as a groundballer (58.9% career) that relies on control (2.79 BB/9 career) and has a mediocre strikeout rate (4.96 K/9 career). He even is using his cutter a lot this year (12.9%)! Maybe getting rid of Ludwick to acquire Westbrook didn’t make a lot of sense, but this pitcher, in this park, with this pitching coach – that makes a lot of sense. It’s not magic, it’s just a good marriage. He’ll get a few more wins with that offense behind him, and he’ll probably pitch close to his lifetime xFIP (4.02) given the fact that the number was accrued in the more difficult league.

Kila Ka’aihue, Royals (1% owned)
It must be August if we’re touting a player that hasn’t started since he was called up, doesn’t have the backing of his organization, and grounded into a game-ending double play in his only major league at-bat of the past three months. Huzzah. The thing is, Ka’aihue has some skills – and an apostrophe – that argue in his favor. A 16% walk rate in the minor leagues is actually an elite skill, even. The power is suspect – he had a career .194 ISO in the minors which isn’t what you’d expect from your first baseman – and there’s the rub when it comes to the lack of at-bats, belief from the home club, and fantasy ownership. But this is a team that doesn’t currently have a left-fielder listed on their depth chart and is running Jose Guillen out there every day at designated hitter. Perhaps they can find room for a guy that will get on base, put up a decent batting average, and maybe run into a few homers along the way. It’s not like Gregor Blanco will do any better despite his .300 batting average.

Ownership numbers provided by Yahoo Fantasy Baseball.

We’ve already gone over the trade of Matt Capps from a real-life angle, but most fantasy managers really only want to know one thing: who’s closing in Minnesota now? Incumbent interim closer Jon Rauch has not been great, but he hasn’t been terrible either.

The kicker about this one is how similar these guys are. Just look at their FIPs right now – Capps has a 3.46 FIP, Rauch a 3.42 – and you realize that maybe the Twins didn’t need a second dude just like the first in their bullpen. The comparison runs even deeper than that, as Capps (7.43 K/9) and Rauch (6.34 K/9) are not the traditional closers, but instead are two relievers that rely on control (Capps has a 1.76 BB/9, Rauch a 2.11 BB/9). But already we have a clue here that Capps is teensy bit better, because he is slightly better in both categories.

The nail in the sabremetric coffin, for Rauch, is groundball percentage. He’s a flyball guy, with 33.4% career flyballs and 37.3% this year. Capps, at least this year, is a comparative grass-guzzler, with a 48.3% groundball rate this year. On the other hand, we should be careful not to put too much stock into this number – his career number is much more modest (37.8%), and Capps is now (199 BF) not far past the total batters faced benchmark (150) for groundballs.

Ah, but Capps has 26 saves! Whoo!

The fact that the team traded for him, and his numbers are just slightly better across the board, probably means that Rauch is out of a job. But since the two are so close, Rauch owners should probably hold on to their now-devalued asset for just a little bit to see how things shake out. (That is, unless they can pick up Drew Storen in Washington, who is the favorite there if just because of his recent draft status and age, but that’s enough for another post.)

I’ll leave you with some Twins-centric anger from Aaron Gleeman, who excoriated the trade today on his website, because hey, who better to rant about a move than a die-hard fan of the main team involved:

In reality they traded Ramos for a setup-caliber reliever who accumulated saves on bad teams and is thus overrated and soon overpaid. Among the 93 pitchers who’ve logged 150-plus relief innings in the past three calendar years, Capps ranks 38th in xFIP, 49th in FIP, 50th in ERA, 61st in strikeout rate, and 85th in opponents’ average.

You’d think the Twins would have learned something about the created-not-born nature of the closer role and often spurious value of saves from Rauch’s relatively successful stint filling in for Nathan, but instead they just paid a premium for a guy whose perceived value and ability are much higher than his actual value and ability solely because of his role and save total. Capps is a good reliever, but the Twins paid for a great reliever and did so for all the wrong reasons.

It looks like Roy Oswalt is on his way to Philadelphia today, and enterprising fantasy managers facing a trade deadline of their own probably want to know what the implications are for their fantasy team. Let’s take a look.

First, the park move is negligible. According to StatCorner, Minute Maid park boosts home runs for lefties 6% and righties 18% – but the Phillies’ home park boosts home runs 16% for lefties and a whopping 22% for righties. If he starts tomorrow as he is scheduled to do, Oswalt is on pace to make starts against the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, and Nationals (twice) at home in Philadelphia. He averages about 6.45 fly balls per start, so that’s about 32 fly balls, of which 10% would normally leave the park. Boost 3.2 home runs by about 5-9%, and you get somewhere between 3.36 and 3.48 home runs. This might (*might*) mean a home run extra over those five starts combined. The change in home parks is not a big deal, at least for 2010.

What will look better for Oswalt this year are his future competitors. Should the schedule line up correctly with Oswalt starting tomorrow, this is what he is looking at: @WAS, @FLA, LAD, SF, WAS, @SD, @LAD, FLA, @NYM, WAS, NYM, @WAS. Sign me up for some of that please.

Oswalt is currently showing the best strikeout rate of his career (8.37 K/9) and one of the worst groundball rates of his career (43%, 47.4% career) – and is also using the changeup the most he ever has (11.7%, 6.0% career). This is no coincidence. Going off of Harry Pavlidis’ benchmarks for pitch types this year, the changeup gets one of the better whiff percentages in the pantheon of pitches (only splitters and sliders average more whiffs). The lower groundball rate may be attributed to his career-high usage of his slider (16.9%, 10.4% career), which only gets about 45% groundballs according to Pavlidis’ work.

In any case, the added focus on his off-speed stuff has suited Oswalt well. He’ll know have one of the best offenses in baseball behind him, so the 6-12 record should rectify itself, and the schedule lines up well for him during the stretch run. There is little-to-no downside to Oswalt pitching in Philadelphia, unless he insists on driving his tractor from Texas to Pennsylvania.

We first talked about who might replace Octavio Dotel three months ago, during a tough stretch for the closer. Now that Buster Olney is reporting that teams feel that the Pirates will trade Dotel and install Joel Hanrahan as the closer, we have to revisit the situation.

First, Dotel probably won’t close wherever he goes. He has a 4.06 FIP, and despite owning a nice strikeout rate (10.95 K/9), he has a mediocre walk rate (4.14 BB/9) and a poor groundball rate (30.4%), so it’s hard to see which contending team would consider him an upgrade at closer. So enjoy the saves you have in the bank, and if you are in H2H, start looking for a replacement like pronto.

Second, is it crazy to think Hanrahan is the best Buc option at closer? He has the mythical closer experience, at least. This year, he’s paired that experience with his career-best strikeout rate (12.53 K/9, 9.93 K/9 career) and walk rate (3.02 BB/9, 4.78 BB/9 career). His groundball rate is passable – 37.2% – and therefore his FIP (2.80) and xFIP (2.96) are both very nice.

Let’s not forget Evan Meek, who is having a nice year of his own. His strikeout race is at his conventional level (8.22 K/9, 7.76 career K/9), but it’s the reigned-in walk rate that has made his year so special (2.35 BB/9, 4.35 career BB/9). Given his groundball rate (52.9%), it would not be crazy to label him the better pitcher despite his slightly higher FIP (2.85) and xFIP (3.19). If anyone’s HR/9 is going to move quickly in the second half, it would probably be Hanrahan’s, judging from their respective fly ball rates.

In the end, the report says Hanrahan, so that’s the way we should lean when we flock to the waiver wires today. He makes for a perfectly fine addition, and save for a couple rough stretches and the odd home run, will probably make his new owners happy.

As an aside, I did wonder if some ‘gaming the system’ was going on here. As mostly malcontent Murray Chass pointed out in an article on integrity, teams are becoming more savvy about manipulating arbitration times. While I don’t agree that this is a shortcoming – if you want different rules, change em – it’s true that teams like Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Florida probably delayed their prospects in order to keep them from achieving “Super Two” status.

Could Pittsburgh be doing something similar by keeping the (possibly) better pitcher (Meek) cheaper by keeping him out of the closer’s role? Arbitration committees would most certainly award a player with saves more money, even if that idea is silly. If Hanrahan was closer to free agency, this theory might make sense. Pump Hanrahan’s value up by installing him as closer, watch his salary escalate, and then trade him and turn to the cheaper Meek later – that was the theory. Too bad for the theory, Meek is only under control for a year longer than Hanrahan, so if this report is true, they must think that his gaudier strikeout rates make him a better fit at closer than Meek, straight up.

There’s a Phillie outfielder that should be getting more pub these days, and his name is not Jayson Werth. In fantasy circles at least, it’s Shane Victorino that’s been performing at a laudable pace most of the year. Maybe it’s my fandom, or the BABIP-lowered .259 batting average, but I’ve been guilty of ignoring Victorino myself. Should I have given him more pub?

I’m not sure. Going into the season, he struck me as a little overrated – a Denard Span dressed up in more expensive and slightly more powerful (and, judging by his nickname, exciting) clothing. A good batting average and 30 stolen bases is worthwhile, but 10ish home runs means you shouldn’t pay too much for it, after all.

Well, then Victorino found his boomstick. His .196 ISO, 40.1% flyball percentage, and 11.4% HR/FB are all full-season career highs and have contributed to his career high in home runs, achieved with much of the season left. Of course, ISO is one of the last statistics to stabilize, so we should remember that. But, other than expected regression to his career means, is there something here that might stick?

One thing that leaps out at the page is a lack of linear progression towards these highs. He hasn’t had a growing flyball percentage, nor has his HR/FB total been inching forward. This isn’t something backed by extensive research, but nice linear buildup towards a career high just makes a person feel better about the repeatability of that ability. Say Victorino was getting older, slower, and more powerful – like Johnny Damon in his later New York years – then we might expect a couple of years with nice home run totals. Then again, Damon’s power didn’t come in a nice linear way either – his is more a picture of peaks and valleys.

Check it out:

Does Victorino’s look familiar?

We’ll have to plead not enough information, given how many more data points Damon has on Victorino. The best thing to note is that his speed scores are not going down, and with some regression in BABIP in the second half, Victorino might even be worth more than he has been to date – if he can hold on to his power gains.

Otherwise, he might just still be Denard Span – with a nice, powerful first half behind him. It’s all about production versus projection in the fantasy game, in the end.

Man, moving into an old house is hard. Every little thing opens up into eight million other things you gotta do. Bah. But you don’t want to hear me whine, you want the waiver wire dirt. So here are a coupla outfielders that could do you good. (Yeah, grammar goes out the window when you are this exhausted.)

Tony Gwynn, Jr, Padres (1% owned)
Gwynn is no unqualified get – they rarely are at this stage of ownership – but he does have some things going for him. For one, it looks like he’s the best outfield defender on his team, going by his double-digit career UZR/150 in center compared to Scott Hairston’s single-digit number. He also can take a walk – his current 13.3% walk rate is second on the team in fact. Last, his current BABIP is so low that he figured highly on Goleblahblah’s xBABIP – BABIP list just the other day. A man that fast should not have a .255 BABIP. As the dinks and dunks fall in, he’ll be able to pair a passable batting average with good speed. With contact rates like he has (96.5% in the zone, 91.6% overall), he could even put up a good batting average. Of course, the rub is that he’s in a crowded outfield. Apologies to Oscar Salazar and Luis Durango, though, Gwynn is, at the very least, in the top four. Will Venable has some strikeout issues (that weren’t this bad in the minor leagues), and Aaron Cunnigham is finally showing something in the major leagues (but could take a walk here or there), so along with Hairston, the Pads have cobbled together a passable outfield. Some days, possibly against lefties (Gwynn had a lower OPS versus lefties in the minors), Hairston will play center field. The rest of the time, it will probably be Gwynn out there, so deeper leagues should look to Gwynn for steals.

Domonic Brown, Phillies (2% owned)
Rumors are rumors, but the newest rumors have Jayson Werth headed to Tampa. The Rays don’t seemingly go for Werth’s type usually (read: big-time in-season acquisition), but his contract expires at season’s end, and at $7.5 million is not onerous. For all the talk that Werth is somehow slumping, his slash line (.280/.371/.502) and wOBA (.376) are almost identical to last year’s (.268/.372/.506; .382). He’s not slumping. Yes, his ISO is a little down (.238 to .222), but it’s closer to his career numbers. So Werth is more probably the 2008 Werth than the 2009 Werth, but would anyone complain about a 20/20 outfielder either? Anyway, back to Brown. He was good enough to make our top 50 trade value list (at #50) and was named the number one Phillies prospect by maven Marc Hulet. We’ll allow space for a longer article concerning Brown (he seems to deserve it), but he’s 22, hitting .328/.389/.592 in Double-A and Triple-A combined this year, with speed (86 stolen bases in 416 minor league games at a 72% success rate) and power (.166 career ISO, with a full-season peak of .214). Let’s just call this a wake-up call for those in deeper leagues. There might be a nice prospect on the way.

It’s summer, it’s the weekend, and you ain’t got stuff to do. Well, maybe you should check that your lineups are set and your bench doesn’t have dead wood on it before you head out into the sun. You owe your fantasy teams that much at least.

Chris Perez, Cleveland (20% owned)
It’s your last chance to speculate on saves in Cleveland. The reasons to think Perez will be the eventual winner of the closer role are legion. He’s younger than Kerry Wood on a bad team looking to the future. He can be a better pitcher than Kerry Wood. He’s cheaper than Kerry Wood. Other teams are interested in trading for Kerry Wood. This is not to say that Perez is perfect. You’d like to see a lot more strikeouts than 7.60 per nine, a lot fewer walks than 4.72 per nine, and more groundballs than 32.6%. HIs 5.18 xFIP is really worrisome, actually, and you can see he’s been lucky (.236 BABIP, 82.1% LOB). On the other hand, his strikeout and walk rates have been much better in the past, and he does own a closer’s arsenal of strikeout stuff normally. He’s one of the better saves-speculation pickups out there, if not the best.

Jim Thome, Minnesota (5% owned)
On April 19th, Brian Joura big-upped Thome in his Waiver Wire piece. On May 19th, I reminded y’all. It’s another month later, so it’s time for your monthly Thome update. The most recent news has Justin Morneau hitting the DL with concussion issues and opening up a spot for Thome to play regularly. In OBP leagues, that’s all you had to say, because Thome is still elite in OBP (.372) and power (.287). If your league uses batting average, you’ll have to give him a longer think because he’ll never again post a nice batting average with those strikeout and contact rates.

Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee (Yet to be added to Yahoo database)
With Doug Davis hitting the DL, the Brew crew decided to call up long-time prospect Cain to help man the outfield. There are bushels of caveats to mention in Cain’s case. First, he’s been around a while, and it took him five years to get through the Brewer’s minor league system, which is not usually a positive. Second, the twenty-four year old was never once dominating, as his .782 career and .846 full-year peak minor league OPSes can attest. He’s also pretty much a speed-only guy, judging from his career minor league .416 SLG and .124 ISO. He’s more of a slight speedster (6’2″ 200 lbs, 123 stolen bases in 572 minor league games at a 78% success rate). He was also rated “The Tumbler” by Marc Hulet because of strikeout issues last year. The last notch against him is that the Milwaukee outfield is still crowded… for now. Corey Hart is rumored to be leaving town soon, and deep league speed-starved managers could do worse for a speculative pickup here. At least Cain is coming off his best year as an amateur, hitting .326/.407/.439 combined so far in 2010. He also cut his strikeouts this year (down to 20.7% from 24.1%), so he’s going well right now.

Getting to (a) second base(man) in fantasy (baseball) can be tough. (Especially in seventh grade.) Only Robinson Cano is the top forty this year, so more than a few fantasy managers are looking for help at the position. Here are a trio of guys that could be useful. Thanks to Mike Axisa and Zach Sanders for the idea.

Brian Roberts, Baltimore (65% owned)
Much has been made of Robert’s three-year decline in stolen base totals, and his back troubles. But, as is often the case with veterans, he’s also on a three-year increase in ISO. It wouldn’t be incredible for him to hit double-digits in both home runs and steals in the second half. It seems unbelievable, but so did getting to second base at some point in your life. He does have five hits in seven plate appearances so far on his rehab stint. Of course, all but one of the hits were singles, but if you get him off the wire, you won’t be complaining.

Gordon Beckham, Chicago AL (35%)
It’s been a tough year for Beckham, and though we thought that maybe it was too early to give up on him way back when, it probably was best if his owners dropped him then… and maybe picked him up now. It got a little hairy when Brent Lillibridge (with his .643 BABIP (!) and limited upside (.268/.348/.409 in the minor leagues)) was starting over him, but a little injury to the aged one, Omar Vizquel, seems to have opened up some room for Beckham. He’s been starting regularly in July at least, and at some point his BABIP (.255) has to embiggen. Maybe the fact that he’s been hitting the ball in the air more in July (42.9% in July, 35.7% for the year) bodes well for him. He definitely has more upside than any other second or third baseman on the White Sox roster now.

Neil Walker, Pirates (5% owned)
Walker? No, I wanted to… nevermind. Walker is putting up a mediocre .275/.318/.423 line, but there’s one nice thing about it. It’s sustainable, or at least it appears so. Walker got his strikeout rate to a manageable level (22.5%) which is in line with his minor league numbers (17.1%) and doesn’t scream ‘poor batting average.’ His .330 BABIP might come down, but a corresponding increase in his power might help his average stay around the same. He is sporting a .148 ISO, and had a .168 number in the minor leagues, and even that ISO was higher over the last couple of years. In deeper leagues, you might just be looking for a place holder that doesn’t kill you in any category. Walker might just be that guy.

In lieu of a Waiver Wire piece today, we’ll take a look at the worst bullpen in the major leagues. Because saves are saves, that’s why. And no fantasy owner is looking for All-Stars on the waiver wire (or no sane fantasy owner).

In the second-to-last game before the break, interim manager Kirk Gibson, who has not yet named a closer, was finally faced with a save situation. Who would he pick? Let’s run down the list of his available ‘talent:’

Aaron Heilman
With a strikeout-to-walk ratio that’s been under two for three years in a row, and an FIP that’s been closer to five than four over that same stretch, Heilman has shown us who he is, and it’s not good. It’s hard not to go over the top here, but this is the bare truth: under no circumstances should a decent team consider Heilman as their closer. Of course, this is not a decent team. But even a rebuilding team shouldn’t really consider for their closer position a pitcher with a 4.94 xFIP and 31 years in his rear view mirror. So let’s hope that Gibson had sense enough to move on… which he did, sort of.

Esmerling Vazquez
Vazquez is striking people out (9.79 K/9), and has a decent-enough xFIP (4.11), and is also young (27). But Vazquez also walks too many (4.75 BB/9), has a poor groundball percentage (34.2% this year, 40% career), and isn’t being used in high-leverage situations (0.94 gmLI). Of course, maybe this team isn’t creating enough high-leverage situations, so Vazquez actually looks like a decent option given the putridity of this bullpen. But no, in this game, on July 10th, Vazquez actually recorded his first hold since May 22nd by pitching his seventh-straight scoreless and fifth-straight walk-less appearance in the eighth inning. Vazquez is moving up the depth chart, but he’s not there yet. He’s worth watching, though.

Chad Qualls
The veteran had been pitching better since losing the closer title earlier in the month. That is to say, he had put together a string of four scoreless appearances from June 29th to July 5th. He had only walked two batters since June 9th. He had given up one home run since May. Of course, Qualls also had given up 13 earned runs since the beginning of June, so the record was spotty. Then there’s also the fact that he’s in the last year of his contract on a team going nowhere. There’s no real reason to play him for the future, especially when the luck is really not going his way (.468 BABIP! 50.5% LOB%!). Qualls is still a good pitcher, but does Arizona care?

Sam Demel
Demel is the dark horse. He came over in the Conor Jackson trade, and has been dealing ever since, on a level that seems commensurate with his minor league performances. He was the Triple-A closer in the A’s organization, and had been sporting an 8.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in Sacramento. Well, now in Arizona, he’s got a 8.25 K/9 and 1.50 BB/9 (and therefore a nice 3.03 xFIP). If he can continue exhibiting that control, he could be a great closer, but that’s no given, as you can see from his 4.5 BB/9 in the minors. On the other hand, he’s the only reliever in Arizona with a good groundball rate (52.9%). The problem is, he’s being rewarded with mop-up time in bad games (0.69 gmLI, and his past six appearances have come in games decided by an average of 6.33 runs). This meat is grabbing pine. Maybe Gibson will notice him eventually, but he didn’t on July 10th.

Juan Gutierrez
Not to ruin the ‘surprise,’ but Gutierrez was the winner, after Heilman came on in the top of the ninth and got two outs but left two on for Qualls, who came in and gave up two runs without recording an out. So Gibson actually reached for two guys before he got to Gutierrez, and not without reason. Gutierrez is not striking out a ton of batters this year (7.52 K/9) or career (7.87 K/9), walks a bit too much (3.62 BB/9), and has a major Achilles’ heal when it comes to groundballs (29% this year, 36% career). If the team goes young, Vazquez and Demel are better options. If the team goes with ‘experience,’ Qualls is a better option (if they can see past the bloated ERA).

In the end, the problem is that Gibson has no real solid options to go to. That makes it hard to predict what will happen. If a dynasty-leaguer is looking at the situation, it has to be Demel as the pickup, and he does look like the best pitcher in the pen right now. If a redraft manager thinks that Gibson will be forward-looking and can see past a bad ERA, it’s Qualls. If they want to go by Gibson’s first attempt, it’s Heilman. IF it’s who succeeded last, it’s Gutierrez. Good luck hunting!

It’s been a long time since we’ve updated the outfielders – moving across country will do that to you. While I struggled with boxes and furniture, injuries and mediocre play have done some serious damage at the top of the tier.

The Top Options:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.361 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.339 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.435 wOBA, .390 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.400 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.344 wOBA, .376 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.395 wOBA, .365 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.389 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox (.377 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (.373 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This may upset some people, but it’s just hard to separate out an elite sub-set of outfielders right now. Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp and Justin Upton certainly have the upside to go on a tear and make this ranking seem silly, but right now they just aren’t showing it. They may even need to go on a tear just to get to the lower end of their preseason projections. Another way to spin this is that there are a lot of really nice outfielders. Everyone in this tier, all the way down to Carlos Gonzalez can give you positive value in all five fantasy categories. Upton’s strikeout rate might mean that his batting average will sink him out of this tier, but he’s also shown lower strikeout rates and higher batting averages in the past, so let’s not count him out yet.

There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.351 wOBA, .354 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.381 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.399 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.362 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA))
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.279 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.382 wOBA, .378 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Although this tier is headed up by a couple of veterans, it’s the young speedsters that have the better chance of moving up the ladder. Ichiro! will give you the batting average, but the rest of his line looks a little too much like Denard Span’s to award him first-tier status, and it’s McCutchen that might soon put up Crawford-like numbers to advance tiers. Torii Hunter has power and speed, but it’s a healthy Shin-Soo Choo that has the stronger batting average, so therefore more upside.

Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.377 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner, New York AL (.371 wOBA, .334 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Dunn, Washington (.403 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the group that provides OF1-like production in deeper leagues, but they’d make a shallow mixed league roster look a little wonky. Brett Gardner and Jayson Werth are the risers here, but Adam Dunn belongs even with his batting average. Manny Ramirez may just fall another tier, especially if he’s out much longer after the break. He’s still good when he’s in, though.

Upside to Join the Top
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.321 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.388 wOBA, .347 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jason Bay, New York NL (.349 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.373 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.363 wOBA, .362 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Colby Rasmus fans will hem and haw, but they might want to check the rest-of-season projections for Curtis Granderson before they get too heated up. They both have some platoon issues (Granderson’s are more pronounced), both don’t have great batting averages, and both have great power and speed. Oh, and this space feels a little vindicated by Carlos Quentin’s recent hot streak, which has shown that he still has much power, even if the batting average is a problem. The BABIP is so low that with additional regression even the batting average might be nice for the second half.