As the trade season has ended for most of us, it’s natural to transition from rankings to posts about players that might be on your wire. Here is a duo that might just help at baseball’s second-most plentiful position.

Brad Hawpe, Free Agent (29%)
Brad Hawpe is a free agent in August, which must be both disconcerting and possibly exciting to him, and is also making his fantasy value very nebulous and context-specific. He’s always been a little context-specific anyway, with a .227 ISO at home and a .197 ISO on the road. Though Hawpe has been having a bad year, only his ISO and HR/FB rates are far off his norms, and those statistics take more than his current 300 plate appearances to stabilize. He could easily return to his old ways in a new stadium… especially if his new stadium is in Texas, which has a nice 120 park factor for home runs by left-handed batters. The Rangers are rumored to be in on the former Rockies outfielder as a backup 1B/DH/OF to help them survive through some current injury and poor play. Hawpe would have to beat out Jorge Cantu and Mitch Moreland for playing time at first base, which sounds doable. Even easier for Hawpe would be beating Willy Aybar and Dan Johnson out for time in Tampa Bay. While Tampa doesn’t offer the same left-handed park factor (88), it does offer an easier path to regular time. In deep leagues with five outfielders, he makes for a sneaky waiver claim.

Chris Denorfia, Padres (7% owned)
When Tony Gwynn Jr. (or Thin Gwynn) went down this year, it was San Diego’s loss but Denorfia’s gain. Well, actually, it might have even been San Diego’s gain, other than Denorfia’s career -19.6 UZR/150 in center field. No matter, Scott Hairston can shift over to center defensively (career 7.6 UZR/150) and allow Denorfia more time at a corner position. Either way, Denorfia is the brand new owner of steady playing time without a real threat in sight. A career .282/.354/.429 line is eminently decent already, but he’s showing more power with a .477 slugging percentage and a .192 ISO this year. That power surge may not continue – his ISO in the minor leagues was a below-average .106 and his major league career has only spanned 479 plate appearances to date. But Denorfia has a little speed (5.5 speed score this year, 5.0 is average), some ability to control the stick and get on base, and a tiny bit of pop. In deeper leagues, it’s the playing time that makes him attractive enough to pick up. Hopefully ‘Unbreakable’ can stay in one piece for the rest of the season.

For those of you past your trade deadline, the waiver wire is increasingly important. At this point in the season, it’s also probably time to start thinking about particular statistics. A targeted push will make much more of a difference than an attempt to find across-the-board boosts. In that effort, here are some (slightly) one-dimensional players that should be interesting in the final weeks.

Peter Bourjos, Angels (1% owned)
It’s obvious that some people on the front of the site have a little mancrush on Bourjos. It’s irrational, but so are some aspects of Bourjos’ game. In a mere 17 games, he’s already accrued 5.2 UZR (a redonkulous 96.9 UZR/150 which leads the universe I’m pretty sure without checking). Also, Bourjos currently has an 8.6 four-factor speed score, which would lead baseball if he qualified. On the basis of those two aspects alone, he’ll have a pace in baseball… and a long leash. Long leashes are important when you are sporting a .202 BABIP on a team that doesn’t seem to care too much about advanced statistics. In particular, Bourjos is still playing every day because his glove is required, and he even strung together five hits in his last 18 at-bats, so deeper league stewards seeking stolen bases should select this speedster straight away. (Suffering succotash.)

Mitch Moreland, Rangers (1% owned)
It’s not terrible to be in a platoon if you’re the left-hander and are getting the bulk of the at-bats against right-handers, and that’s where Moreland finds himself. Moreland is also probably scraping the upper levels of his upside right now. A high BABIP (.359) is floating his batting average a little bit, but his walk rate (13.2%), strikeout rate (27.6%) and ISO (.190) are all in line with what might be expected from a man with his minor league walk rate (10%), strikeout rate (15.9%) and ISO (.196). In fact, as that BABIP regresses to the mean, he may actually strike out a little less often and keep his overall line looking very similar. Call him the anti-Chris Davis because he probably won’t put up the same strikeout and power totals as the former first sacker, but that doesn’t sound like denigration after all the troubles Davis went through. Jorge Cantu can’t quite cut it any more at first base with a .138 ISO and a poor walk rate, so this might just morph into a situation where Moreland starts and Cantu is a multi-position backup. With the injury concerns on a team that seems like a lock for the postseason, Moreland looks like he might get playing time either way.

It’s Friday, you’re ducking out the door early, and you got somewhere to be and some adult beverages to drink. That makes sense. But here are a couple waiver wire candidates to ponder while you are still supposed to be pretending to work.

Carlos Lee, Houston (77% owned)
He’s 34, overweight at best, and in the middle of a very obvious and painful decline. His HR/FB, line drive rate, and ISO have all dropped off precipitously in the last three years. Let’s not mince words. But he’s hitting better recently – .277 with four home runs and two stolen bases over the last thirty days – and he has some regression coming in his favor, too. Even for a low-BABIP player (.287 career BABIP), his current .244 BABIP would be the worst of his career. That should normalize, even if, not surprisingly, his line drive rate is currently the second-worst of his career. He doesn’t strike out a lot – that part of his game has remained steady (10.1% this year, 12.9% career) – so all those balls he puts in play should help the BABIP regression along. He’s still 70 or so plate appearances away from having a reliable ISO, so his career-worst ISO (.161) has a chance to grow over the next few weeks as well. He’s pretty much a DH in the field, and without his power he will be nigh useless, but owners looking for an offensive shot in the arm from their bench should look his way. El Caballo will trot around the bases a few more times before he’s turned into glue.

Chris Young, San Diego (7% owned)
Young is having shoulder troubles, and that’s never good. But supposedly he’s pain free and ready to pitch a simulated game this weekend, which would have him on track to join the major league rotation in early September. It’s not immediately obvious who would drop from the rotation, but the Padres have talked about limiting the innings for Mat Latos (so great he only needs one ‘t’) and his young arm, so he could spot start there. Also, Kevin Correia has oscillated between starting and relieving over his career, and is currently sporting a 4.64 FIP. Young has never relieved and has a career 4.22 FIP even after all the damage he’s put on his career numbers with his recent injury-addled performances. The point is, the team could use him, and if he’s finally healthy again, maybe he can find his old control (3.5 BB/9 career, over four the last three years) that makes his stuff play better. We know Young likes PetCo – his 2.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP there in 255.1 innings is almost reason enough to pick up Young and stash him on your deep league disabled list.

Last week, after a throwaway comment about his inclusion among the elite shortstops, we had a delightful repartee in the comments section about Jimmy Rollins. I rarely own Rollins because of his first- and second-round cost, but perceive him as elite from afar, so some of the comments surprised me. Was his 2008 “crappy?” Has he really not been elite for years? Do you have to be taken in the first two rounds to be elite? Let’s try and go at this without preconceptions and work forward.

What is elite? I might have a healthy Rollins as the fourth- or fifth-best shortstop in the fantasy baseball this year. Would that be elite? A comparable outfielder would be one that was in the top third at his position, or the ninth- or tenth-best OF. That would be somewhere between Vladimir Guerrero and Hunter Pence so far in 2010. That doesn’t pass the sniff test, so it doesn’t look like Rollins is ‘elite’ if elite means something like the top tenth at a certain position. Certainly, Rollins is not passing Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes is healthier and younger, so that’s debatable as well.

So does Rollins belong in the same tier even? He does own a career 105 wRC+, which looks great compared to the average batting-average qualifying shortstop this year – 86 wRC+. Perhaps a comparison to Troy Tulowitzki will help. Tulo put up 30 home runs and 20 stolen bases to Rollins’ 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases last year, and while that seems fairly comparable, Rollins of course had a .250 batting average while he accrued his stats, compared to Tulo’s much more palatable .297 number. Case closed? Rollins’ batting average sinks him from the tier?

Maybe. It’s pretty stark. But Rollins had a .251 BABIP last year, which pales next to Tulowitzki’s .316 in the same season, and also next to his own .291 career BABIP. So if Rollins had put up something closer to his .273 career batting average, he probably would be a lot closer to fitting in the tier, no?

Then there’s the issue of Tulowitzki’s speed. It’s inconsistent. It’s not something to depend on. His career success rate is 61%, and his career speed score is 5.1 (5.0 is average). He never stole more than six bases in a minor league season, either. It wouldn’t be going out on a limb to predict that he’ll never again steal twenty bases.

So let’s try to ‘normalize’ Tulowitzki’s stats using his career ISO and this analysis of his speed. If he’s a .190 ISO guy, with questionable speed, we might want to guesstimate something like a .290 season with 25 home runs and 10 stolen bases next year. Other guys with .190-.200 ISOs this season include David Wright, Delmon Young and Torii Hunter, and though ISO doesn’t straight up equal home run power, this seems to make sense.

What would a similar guesstimation have to say about Rollins? Let’s take his career batting average, accrued over 6800 plate appearances, add it to his plus speed, and take his .163 career ISO to spit out something like .270, 12 home runs and 35+ stolen bases in a healthy year. That seems comparable to Tulo, even if you give the younger shortstop a nudge for being younger and having more power. Stolen bases are rare, and getting them from a middle infielder is a bonus.

The gorilla in the room is Rollins’ age. He’ll be 32 next year and aging middle infielders can find themselves in precipitous declines – just ask Derek Jeter how 2010 is going. Rollins’ ISO has declined, generally, over the past four years, and his speed scores, though still nice (7.0 this year), have fallen off his elite pace as well. Even though it’s tempting to say he’s been ‘oft-injured’ recently, it’s hard to discern a serious trend in his plate appearance totals. It’s definitely worth noting that his lowest two plate appearance totals will have come in the past three years, though.

Yes, Rollins is declining. Yup, he’s probably not elite. Yes, most people would take Tulowitzki over Rollins. But no, he’s not dead yet. And no, despite his injury-riddled 2010 and poor-luck-addled 2009, he’s not quite ‘crappy’ just yet. Taken at the right moment in 2011, he may just win a few fantasy leagues next year. Heck, his comeback may just win a couple fantasy leagues this year, provided his owners didn’t fall too far off the pace while he was out.

This waiver wire is New York Mets-themed because Mets fans need some solace in what is increasingly looking like another lost season. A 0.5% chance at the playoffs remain for the Mets, but these two players with lower ownership rates can help you better your own chance to get to your fantasy playoffs at least.

Hisanori Takahashi (14% owned)
Of course, Bull Durham taught all of us not to punch with your pitching hand, but perhaps Francisco Rodriguez has not seen the movie. His rage lead to an opening at the Mets’ closer position, and since Jerry Manuel is a creature of habit, it looks like Tak-san is already the winner. Of course, an argument could be made that the team needs to look to the future, and Bobby Parnell or even Chad Cordero offer more hope for cheap, controllable seasons in the future than does the 35-year-old, one-year contract Takahashi. But New York is the type of market that fosters an ever-present win-now mentality. Call it media pressure, or the new-stadium-driven need to get fans in the seats, but this is not a team that looks like it will be rebuilding any time soon. Most of this team is under contract for 2011, so the guess here is that, after some bluster and blarney, Rodriguez is back in the closer’s role next year. That means that Takahashi is left as the best stop-gap option, and will be garnering saves for the Mets for the next six weeks. You can mention Pedro Feliciano, but his 4.94 FIP against righties (822 batters faced) is an effective argument against. Here are some more words on the subject from a team future standpoint, but from a fantasy standpoint, Tak-san looks to be the winner here. Those doubting his ability to closer should take a look at this pitch f/x piece here (with the caveat that our Patrick Newman thinks the slider looked more pedestrian in Japan), and also note that this rates have been better as a reliever (10.22 K/9 and 4.14 B/9).

Fernando Martinez (0% owned)
It’s hard to call this a recommendation for a pickup at this point, but the nice news is that he’s only 117 plate appearances into his career, so his .087 ISO is still 400+ plate appearances away from meaning anything. He’s still just months past being named the number one Mets prospect by Maven Marc Hulet, too. But Dave Cameron warned us that a couple months can mean a lot when it comes to prospects, so what have we learned this year? Well, we learned that Martinez got injured yet again, and that these injuries are concerning. We also learned that a .209 ISO in Triple-A at 22 is part of his package, which is good news. It would be nice to see a year out of him where we didn’t mention his age, but that’s for the future. The bad news is that his platoon splits continued to be poor. This year at Triple-A he had a .832 OPS against righties, .691 against lefties, and the larger sample size, his entire minor league career, features a .819 OPS against righties / .689 against lefties. Even if that larger sample is only about 380 plate appearances against lefties and splits don’t become reliable until somewhere around 1000 plate appearances for left-handed batters, it seems the Mets will platoon him with Jeff Francouer and limit his development going forward – because that is how they roll. There’s still a chance here for some decent power from this outfielder. Judging from the ownership numbers, deep keeper leagues may find him on the wire, and a rebuilding team may want to take a shot on F-Mart.

The options on the wire are dwindling as temperatures hit their peaks. Here’s a pair of pitchers with low ownership rates could help the right team in the right place, though.

Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado (2% owned)
It looked for a second like Esmil Rogers was the one that would replace Aaron Cook, but that is no longer the case. The team just wanted Chacin to build back up the innings, as he had been in the bully for a little while. Chacin just went seven in the minor leagues and will take the next turn in the major league rotation. And, of course, he’s a really good pitcher that is borderline mixed league material. He’s already good – a 3.77 FIP in less than a hundred major league innings, with a nice strikeout rate (9.73 per nine this year) – but he can even be better. His minor league groundball percentage is 60.1%, and was 66.3% in Triple-A this year – so his major league number (44.7%) could easily improve. He also only walked 2.7 per nine in the minor leagues, but that number also creeped up as he advanced, so perhaps his current number (4.15) represents his actual talent level. No matter. If he strikes out a batter per inning and gets half of his balls on the ground, he’ll be a good pitcher. The key is the strikeouts. After only striking out 7.5 per nine over his minor league career, he’s been doing well in the majors. An 11.3% swinging strike percentage is both above average and a good harbinger of future strikeouts, though, so we’re betting on this young Rockies pitcher.

Jordan Zimmermann, Washington DC (2% owned)
Everyone’s been waiting on the other Nationals pitcher to join the big league team, but they are really babying their second ace. Wednesday marked the anniversary of his surgery, but he’s still pitching four innings at a time on his rehab stint. Compare him to Edinson Volquez, who had the surgery 374 days ago and has already made five starts this year. That’s what being competitive will do to you, perhaps. In any case, Zimmermann’s rehab has gone well. Usually it’s the control that comes back last, but he’s put up a 23-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 29.2 innings while rehabbing, which has to bode well. The strikeout rate and walk rate haven’t been quite as stellar at the higher levels of his rehab, but it’s time to see what he can do in the major leagues – or so says a fantasy manager. If he does come up soon, and can put up anything like his strikeout (9.07) and walk (2.86) rates of last year (his minor league numbers seem to suggest he can), he’ll be a good pickup in any league.

Ownership rates provided by Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

This was going to be a rankings update, because it’s been six weeks since we last looked at the shortstops, but amazingly little has changed. There’s still Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins at the top, some okay guys four-through-eight, and then a whole bunch of leftovers.

Instead let’s look at some guys near the bottom, just in case you are looking for an injury replacement, or your current shortstop is just killing you. They might be on your mixed- or deep-league waiver wire, and can provide some short-term help.

Stephen Drew, Arizona (60% owned)
The younger Drew has not had a great month, going .224 with three home runs and no stolen bases, but he was just part of a four-home-run-in-a-row onslaught that could awaken the bat. His current .146 ISO is well below his career number (.170) and since ISO takes the longest to become predictable (550 plate appearances, and Drew has 435 PAs), there’s still some hope left that the power returns. The speed scores have stayed steady around 5.8, so he looks like he’s got above-average speed (5.0 is average) and will sprinkle some steals in. With his batting average currently batted-ball luck neutral (.301 BABIP), we can’t expect a lot in that category. With a little power boost, though, he could best his ZiPs RoS without too much effort.

Yunel Escobar, Toronto (49% owned)
It seems that the change of venue has treated Escobar well. He’s gone .306/.344/.447 since the trade, and those are entirely repeatable numbers based on his .292/.367/.405 career numbers and the power drought he was mired in earlier in the season. Since joining the Jays, Escobar has eschewed the walk (4.3%, 9.5% career) in favor of some pop (.141 ISO, .114 career ISO) – that should sound familiar to anyone watching the “Grip It & Rip It” Jays right now. They have the fourth-worst walk rate in the American League, and the best ISO by far (.210 to the Red Sox’ .189). It remains to be seen how this affects Escobar long term, but more power would make him a fringe mixed-league candidate. He still hits too many balls on the ground to really be a power threat, and his speed scores (3.4 career) make him a poor pickup for steals. But if you need a little batting average and the occasional home run, Escobar is in the right place right now.

Brendan Ryan, St. Louis (3% owned)
Ryan is no great shakes. That much should be obvious from his career wRC+ (85) if not from any of his other underwhelming statistics. He has no power (.090 career ISO) and last year’s 14 steals were a career high. But as fantasy players, you all know that shortstop is a tough position to fill. The average wOBA of qualifying shortstops this year is .311, while the average wOBA across all positions is .324. Suddenly his 85 wRC+ doesn’t look as bad next to the average shortstop’s 96 wRC+. Ryan has also been working on his swing by reducing his movement – a development than anyone who has watched Ryan would welcome. We know all about the horrors of the small sample size, but since the break, Ryan has put up a .299/.333/.338 line that looks sustainable given the fact that his BABIP regression (currently .251) will hopefully help him continue to push his currently horrid line back to his career norms.

Jed Lowrie, Boston (1% owned)
It’s possible that Jed Lowrie is actually Yunel-Escobar-lite. He has poor speed (3.7 career speed score), and the power hasn’t shown itself yet (.137 ISO career). But his career has been so short to date because of his myriad injuries (436 PAs) that his ISO has not stabilized yet. His best season in the minor leagues was his healthiest, when he put up 498 combined ABs between Double- and Triple-A and had a combined .290/.387/.495 park- and luck-adjusted line according to MinorLeagueSplits.com. Of course, the MLE for that (.243/.318/.397) looks a lot like his major league line so far (.244/.327/.381), so maybe this is what we get. He can definitely take a walk, though (11.5% career walk rate), and has value in OBP leagues. So far in August, he has 24 ABs in 12 Red Sox games, which is just barely relevant. If the Sox fall further out of it, they may just want to see what they have in the young dude.

It’s been almost six weeks since we updated the rankings for second basemen. Oh, in those hallowed days of yore – six weeks hence I lived in New York City, my commute was filled with tourists and teenagers, six-packs cost $12 and every once in a while human feces was something I had to watch out for. Greatest city in the world. On to the second basemen, with to-date wOBA and ZiPs RoS wOBAs included for your pleasure.

The Top Targets:
Robinson Cano, New York AL (.403 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ian Kinsler, Texas (.359 wOBA, .368 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.381 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.349 wOBA, .339 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Not much to report here, other than perhaps the fact that some would want Cano in his own tier with Utley and Pedroia down and Kinsler showing much less power than he has in the past. It’s not an unreasonable position. However, the other three guys still have 20/20 type skills, and with Cano’s lack of speed, it makes sense to create this tier.

Strong Secondary Options
Dan Uggla, Florida (.383 wOBA, .365 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.375 wOBA, .360 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.379 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.345 wOBA, .347 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Johnson is enjoying the best power production of his career, and his home park might just have a little to do with it. Just look at his home slugging percentage (.605) compared to his road number (.380). It still evens out to an effective second baseman either way. Zobrist is stealing enough bases and showing just enough power to be useful even in this less-exciting version. He could be a mascot for the tier – a little ugly, but getting the job done.

Will They Ever Get it Together This Year:
Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.377 wOBA, .406 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Chone Figgins, Seattle (.305 wOBA, .327 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.292 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Of course the question with Utley is one of health. The latest reports say the splint is off and he hopes to be back before the end of the month, meaning that he could be a sneaky acquisition for a manager looking for a late boost. In head-to-head leagues in particular, Utley is intriguing as a strong addition for a contending team stocking up for the fantasy playoffs. Since the break, Figgins has been hitting .300 and striking out less, so it’s possible the old Figgins is back and we just didn’t notice. Kinda makes him either over-rated or a buy-low candidate depending on how you parse that statement. There’s a whole lot of rust and a really small sample size for Roberts, so he makes the riskiest buy low of the trio.

Pick ‘Em:
Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.346 wOBA, .348 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Martin Prado, Atlanta (.364 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ian Stewart, Colorado (.348 wOBA, .346 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.335 wOBA, .327 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ryan Theriot, Los Angeles (.290 wOBA, .302 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.339 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Juan Uribe, San Francisco, (.330 wOBA, .328 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is a pick ’em tier not because they all have the exact same value. In many leagues, these guys are free agents and their value is close to nil. Of course, deeper league owners are happy to have many of them. It’s the fact that each offers production in a category or two that makes them pick ’ems. Need a little bit of pop? Try Wigginton or Uribe if Stewart is not available. Need some speed? It could be worse than The Riot. Need some batting average help? Polanco can help while Prado is out. The flaws are all there, too, though.

Upside to Join the Top:
Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.296 wOBA, .331 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Aaron Hill, Toronto (.305 wOBA, .327 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.317 wOBA, .326 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ian Desmond, Washington (.302 wOBA, .321 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Technically, this group still has the upside to move upwards. They’ve all had some poor batted ball luck – Hill of course the most extreme (.204 BABIP) – and the regressions to their means might give for a nice stretch or two in the final seven weeks. On the other hand, their flaws are also fairly impressive at this point. Hill hits everything in the air to his detriment (52.1% flyballs, 13.2% popups), Desmond reaches a little too often (34.1%, 17.5% more than average) and could make more contact (79.1%, 2.3% below average), and Kendrick still doesn’t have the power (.141 ISO) or the speed (4.9 Speed Score) to make an impact in the counting categories. Beckham hasn’t been too unlucky with his BABIP, and though he does have the flaws to put him in this group (.117 ISO most prominently), his rookie year still shows his upside and makes his owners wonder which Beckham is the true version. These guys have a sliver of hope between them and the next group down.

Filler:
Carlos Guillen, Detroit (.331 wOBA, .353 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.335 wOBA, .342 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Felipe Lopez, St Louis (.323 wOBA, .316 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Alberto Callaspo, Los Angeles AL (.311 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Mike Aviles, Kansas City (.300 wOBA, .304 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

This is a new tier, but the name reveals all. It’s nice to get most of the second basemen in the league listed in one place, so this group has a place. That place is probably not on your fantasy team unless most starters in your league are owned. It’s completely possible that not a single guy among the four will crack double-digits in either home runs or steals, or hit .300.

In honor of the outfield post that I should have done yesterday, here are a couple of deep league outfielders worth talking about today, this fine day.

Mitch Maier, Kansas City (1% owned)
Maier is really most interesting because, with the dearth of options on the deep league waiver wire, he’s an everyday layer that doesn’t completely suck. He really doesn’t have any power, though, as his .092 career ISO suggests. Oh, it might find its way to league average (.147 this year), if only because his minor league slugging numbers were a little better, but it won’t ever be on the level that you’d expect from an outfielder. If you’re owning him for steals, he did steal 99 in the minor leagues… in 687 games. Since 2005, his full-season high was 16 steals, and his speed scores haven’t topped 6.0 at any level since 2006. Maier should be able to put up a decent batting average to pair with his OBP, though. He’s walking 10.3% of the time and only striking out 17.9% of the time. His batting average right now is neutral when it comes to batted ball luck (.314 BABIP), and there’s a chance he betters that number.

Chris Heisey, Cincinnati (1% owned)
Of these two players, Heisey is the riskier one, yet he also owns the better upside. He’s got a tougher playing time situation, since Drew Stubbs was the former center fielder of the future, and Chris Dickerson is finally healthy and played regularly at the end of last year. On the other hand, Stubbs can’t stop whiffing, and Dickerson has some problems against left-handers – there is daylight here, and Heisey has started six straight. Heisey has been the beneficiary of some luck (.354 BABIP) and a strikeout rate (27.6%) that could portend a dropping batting average in the future. He had nice batting averages in the minors (.296 career), and his strikeout rates hovered around 15%, so maybe he’ll whiff a little bit less in the future to offset the dropping BABIP. The power looks like it will be above-average, as his ISO was close to .200 over the last two years at Double-A and Triple-A. He adds speed to the package, with 88 steals in 476 career minor league games, and a nice 20/20 season on his resume. The riskier pick here will give you better dividends if he can hold on to the job. Total Zone had him as an above-average center fielder in the minor leagues, though – he shouldn’t lose the job because of the defense, it seems.

Alex Rodriguez finally hit his 600th, but his owners have noticed that there was something wonky going on before the race to the benchmark ever started. A look at Jack Moore’s piece on the moment gives you a hint, but just look at the Rodriguez and his ISO over his career and it comes into sharp focus:

His offense has been declining for some time now, and power seems to be the reason. His flyball percentage is not the culprit, as it has stayed remarkably steady. Even though his HR/FB percentage has hit a career low this year, it was within his career range before this year, so that seems to be a lagging indicator. Is there an indicator out in front that might have been a harbinger of this power slump?

His hit tracker information is interesting. Using HitTrackerOnline, we can see that the average speed on his home runs has not been the same since 2008:

Of course, that was about the same time that Rodriguez started having hip troubles that has led to surgery and soreness since. In the spring of 2009, the news dropped and he hasn’t been the same since. Fanhouse scout Frankie Pilliere had something interesting scouting things to say, that also centered on the hips. It’s About the Money Stupid spotted this great piece:

Essentially, it all comes down to his lower half. When he’s right, no hitter has the balance and strength in the lower half that he does.
[…]
The swing we see from Rodriguez now is one more reliant on his upper body, with far less explosive torque and his hips following his stride.
[…]
Without creating that coiled spring effect before he releases his hands and with less drive of the hips toward the baseball, bat speed is going to suffer. And while there is no official measurement of actual bat speed available, we’ve seen Rodriguez get beat more often by the fastball without that powerful base from which to hit. It’s just not possible to produce the same bat speed.
[…]
If you’re an optimistic person, and expect the Rodriguez of old to return, what you’ll see is a smaller, abbreviated leg kick where he has very little movement in his lower half before he drives his hips at the ball. You’ll also see his head stay much more centered over the middle of his body and far less upper body involvement. If he can accomplish all that, we’ll see his bat speed return and the more prolific home run numbers will follow.

It looks like the numbers and the scouting facts align: Alex Rodriguez does not have the same juice in his hips that he used to. It’s hard for the average fan to notice, but watching the leg kick and his hips is one key. But, as we fantasy fans know, it’s much easier to watch the speed off his bat and trust the numbers once they turn around. Until they do, we’ll have to assume we are watching the decline of a great hitter.