Today, we’ll focus on one National League outfielder instead of the entire class. We know from his twitter feed that 24-year-old Logan Morrison is an excellent young man worth paying attention to, but it’s hard to know exactly how excellent he is with respect to his fantasy value without unpacking his power potential.

Right now, Mr. Morrison has a .313 ISO which would be fourth in baseball if he had played enough to qualify for the batting title. We can’t hold his foot injury against him, but we do know that it means that he’s had fewer PAs than his competitors and his sample is even smaller than average. For a guy that showed a .164 ISO last year, and a .174 ISO in his minor league career, we can remain skeptical that his power will last, and the size of the sample doesn’t help matters.

We do know that isolated power doesn’t even really stabilize over a season, so maybe we don’t really know what his major league power looks like on a reliable level. He’s only played for 366 major league plate appearances. Players don’t usually put up power numbers that trump their minor league work, but certainly young men put on weight and become more powerful as they age. Could Morrison out-do his rest-of-season projections that have him dropping back down to a .177 ISO? That projection would mean only ten more home runs the rest of the season even though he’s managed five in his first 79 plate appearances.

One piece of good news is that Morrison has changed his batted ball profile slightly. After putting up groundball rates over 50% regularly in the minor leagues, Morrison is showing what would be a full-season low in that category right now (40%). Correspondingly, he’s hitting more fly balls (43.6%) than groundballs for the first time in his life. If these changes hold, he could very easily outperform his previous power work.

How far are we from being able to reliable predict that these changes in his batted ball profile will hold? Some might say never because of stringer bias, but Pizza Cutter tells us the ground-ball rate numbers that we have stabilize around 40 PA. So Morrison has shown us that he’s willing to hit the ball on the ground a little more in the major leagues. According to his work, we’ll have to wait another 100 PAs to believe the fly ball rates, but we do know that he’s hitting fewer ground balls.

You have to get the ball in the air to get it out of the park. This is true even if your home park suppresses home runs between one and five percent depending on your handedness. It would be folly to believe a .300 ISO from Logan Morrison, given his minor league career numbers, but a .200 ISO now seems possible with his new ground-ball rate. With the average major league ISO now down to .139, Morrison’s power looks better in comparison even if he doesn’t sustain a .200 ISO, though.

It’s clear that Mr. Morrison is an excellent play even if he doesn’t ever hit 30 home runs a season. His modest power is being boosted by what might turn out to be a real change in approach at the plate.

Play in a linear weights league in ottoneu (or Pick Six), and walks become that little sliver of an edge that you might be able to get over your competitors. But play in any league that values OBP and you might find yourself wondering which players take the most free passes – and most importantly, which players might be taking more free passes in the future based on their past numbers.

At the same time, a star that walks is still a star. How about some players that might be under the radar in a 12-team mixer that still add value with their walk rate? Let’s get them up in this piece. Did you know Jack Cust, who is currently batting fifth for the Seattle Mariners, is second in qualified batters in walk rate? He’s walking in nearly one-fifth of his at-bats. That’s right in line with his 17.4% career walk rate, and he’s well-known as a three-true-outcome guy.

Unfortunately, Cust’s .360+ OBP comes with a sub-.100 ISO. If you’d like a little power with your walks, maybe you could take a look at a more surprising heavy walker, Chase Headley. He’s walking about 16% of the time and has a sub-10% career walk rate. There are reasons to believe his step forward in the category, however. Headley is swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone than ever. He’s even swinging less than ever overall. Both of these numbers are probably reliable given his number of plate appearances so far this year, too. A little bit of power, a little bit of speed, and a lot of walks – at a tough position no less.

If the other side of the corner infield is more your bag, Adam LaRoche is putting forth similar plate discipline statistics and a career-high walk rate of his own. What’s particularly nice about LaRoches’ work, despite looking so mediocre overall, is that he’s swinging less than ever and making more contact than ever (measured by both contact % and swinging strike rate). His contact is even about as ‘good’ as ever if line drive rate can be believed. It seems to suggest that he’s getting choosier in his old age. We know that power stabilizes last, so if he can get his ISO back over .200 again, he might be able to pair it with one of his best OBPs. He’ll have to hit a few more fly balls to do that.

A few newcomers deserve some love. Jonathan Herrera doesn’t have a ton skills but can take a walk. Jonny Gomes is pushing his three-true-outcome work to a new level. Ben Francisco is one of those guys that is mediocre all-around, but he’s got a double-digit walk rate. Jack Hannahan is a flawed player, but he’s had those double-digit walk rates his whole career. Luke Scott comes to mind.

One last note about some players that might be walking more in the future. Chipper Jones has a decent OBP, and is walking about 10% of the time, but he’s walked much more than that in his career, and his plate discipline stats tell us that he’s playing just about the same. Expect a few more free passes in the future as he shows an OBP more like the .409 OBP he’s had since 2008. Nick Markakis may not have Jason Catania’s vote when it comes to standard leagues, but he will be useful in OBP leagues shortly. He has a career walk rate right at 10% but hasn’t managed an average walk rate this year. This despite a reach rate under his career number and a first-strike and zone percentage under his career rates as well. Once you add a double-digit walk rate to his overall strong play, he makes a good acquisition in linear weights and OBP leagues alike.

Happy hunting.

Last year, Gordon Beckham hit .310/.380/.497 with six home runs and no stolen bases after the break. If he hadn’t done so, none of us would be talking about him as a buy-low prospect at all. There are just too many signs going in the wrong direction to be confident that he’s a lock for another bounce-back this year.

Let’s zoom out on his career – this year’s numbers may not yet be in a large enough sample, but there are some worrisome trends that have continued so far in 2011. Since his rookie year, there’s been a drop across the board in many key categories. He showed nice pop in his rookie season – .190 ISO is above average for all players, and certainly above-average for second basemen. Too bad that number dropped to .126 last year and .104 so far this year. He walked at an above-average rate in his debut (9.5%) and has since dropped to 7.4% and now 4.3% this year. He stole seven bases and was caught four times in 2009. He stole four bases and was caught six times last year. He’s stolen one and been caught once this year. He swung and missed at 9% of his pitches at first, 9.3% last year, and 12% this year. 10.4% of his fly balls went for home runs, then 6.9% last year, and now 4.9%.

It’s ugly, right? The more reliable numbers this year are just as bad: his plate discipline is shot right now. That swinging strike rate is almost in a reliable sample. Contact percentage is in a reliable sample, and he’s showing his career-worst in that category (79.9% career, 76% this year). Since batters have been swinging at pitches outside the zone at different rates over the past year, we can normalize that category to see that Beckham has gotten worse there, too: He swung at pitches outside the zone at 98% of league average in 2009, 110% last year, and 124% this year. His contact on balls in the zone has dropped 6% down from league average in that category.

Put it all together and the picture is ugly. Over his career he’s shown less power and speed with every new year. His plate discipline has gotten worse, too. Add to those career trends some worrisome early-season problems laying off bad pitches and making contact with good pitches, and you have a player to risky to invest in, even at a buy-low level. In deeper leagues, you have to hold on to him in case another second-half surge is coming. Given his position eligibility, you might want to even hold him on your bench in standard leagues.

But he’s probably not a strong buy low option.

A couple weeks ago, we updated the National League outfielder rankings. This week, we update a couple players that weren’t even on those rankings.

Jason Bourgeois, Houston (1% owned in Yahoo, 0.8% in ESPN)
Jason Bourgeois has no power, like none at all. His career ISO (.065) would put him at 19th-worst in the category among qualified players this year and his minor league power rates don’t suggest that he has much upside beyond. He also dodesn’t walk a ton. His 7.4% career rate is below average, he hasn’t walked in 36 plate appearances so far this year, and his best minor league walk rate in a season with more than 200 plate appearances was almost exactly average – 8.0% in Double-A with the Mariners in 2006. There also isn’t much to get excited about in terms of pedigree or prospectitude. He’s 29 years old and has been shuttling between Triple-A and the majors for four years now. He’s your typical fourth or fifth outfielder – not really a center fielder according to defensive metrics, but without the power you’d expect from a corner outfielder. Here’s the thing though. He has speed (30 stolen bases between Triple-A and the majors for the Astros last year) and doesn’t really strike out much (13.6% career, 11.1% this year). Oh, and Carlos Lee has a rib contusion, so he may have a bougie last name, but he also has some playing time coming. Deep leaguers that need steals, take note.

Xavier Paul, Pittsburgh (0% owned in Yahoo, 0.1% in ESPN)
Another flawed player stuck without the profile of either a traditional center fielder or corner outfielder, Xavier Paul has turned up where all failed prospects eventually tread: Pittsburgh. Now that Jose Tabata may need some time to rest his hamstring, Paul is in line for more playing time. Paul has shown a little more power away from Los Angeles, but is also striking out about two-fifths of the time. Most likely, he strikes out less and his .500 BABIP returns to earth, and the two effects cancel each other out to an extent. Expect an okay batting average with a handful of steals in the next couple weeks, but it’s unlikely that Paul unseats anyone. Garrett Jones and Matt Diaz fit together like a glove because of their platoon splits, and Andrew McCutchen is not going anywhere. Paul is more of a deep league injury replacement than a speculative pick because his lack of power and centerfield glove are flaws he may not overcome.

Our first trade! The FanGraphs/ottoneu Experts’ League has finally consummated a trade. I gave Andy Behrens my $1 Aaron Harang, and he gave me his $1 Placido Polanco. Early polling on the ottoneu Facebook page (like it! doooo it!) did not favor me, so I’ll do a quick defense. For your reference, the full post-draft rosters are listed in the introduction post here.

I realize that on value alone, I’d rather have Aaron Harang for my team. There, I’ve got that out of the way. Harang, perhaps finally healthy after two years where he only managed about 270 innings combined, is looking good. He’s got his trademark control back, and just enough strikeouts to make the package work. Polanco is also playing well, but his .128 ISO would be his best number in eight years, and his .375 BABIP will surely regress. I’ll take the ZiPs RoS and take a .300-ish batting average with 13-15 combined steals and home runs.

And that’s the key. I’ll take those numbers. I’m not sure Harang would have cracked my lineup too often. He’s still an extreme flyball pitcher – his 33% ranks 12th-worst among qualified pitchers and fits right into his career line (37.8%). As such, he’s probably a confident start about 60% of the time in mixed leagues. On my team, he fit in right behind Josh Johnson, Mat Latos, Ricky Romero, Jaime Garcia, John Danks, Wandy Rodriguez and Derek Holland. You have enough innings for about 6 starters’ worth of work, so basically I was betting that Rodriguez and Holland could handle that final starters’ worth of a workload. That’s a bet I think I can win.

We already looked around at the league and determined that there were only a few teams with extra MIs available. With Ryan Raburn looking like a platoon bat in real life and fantasy, I needed an MI. I offered Aaron Harang for Howie Kendrick (ZiPs RoS .280 with 24 combined HR and SB) and was quickly rebuffed. The best other deal I managed to find was a $5 Alcides Escobar for my $2 Matt LaPorta. I didn’t mind the deal, but my firstbasemen, in a 12-team league, are Gaby Sanchez, Mitch Moreland, Justin Smoak and Matt LaPorta. I think I need to keep all of those guys to see who works out – they’re all flawed.

So, in the end, I traded away a cheap superfluous older player to another team for their cheap, superfluous player. Kudos to user DScott for predicting Behrens as my trading partner. It seemed like a good match. Participant Chad Young (Amateur Hour), when writing about this league on his blog, agreed for the most part – even though it cost him a chance at Matt LaPorta. What do you guys think?

This week in the national league outfield we’ve got two interesting players – one for shallow leagues and one for deeper leagues. Happy hunting.

Dexter Fowler (39% owned in Yahoo, 63.6% owned in ESPN)
Call this an appeal to the Yahoo owners who are on the fence about Fowler, because something about the ESPN game has made him more appealing already. ESPN projected Fowler to hit .275 with seven home runs and 27 steals, while Yahoo thought his 2011 would look more like .266 with five home runs and 25 steals. That might explain a little bit of the variance, and perhaps ESPN has more five-outfield rosters. In any case, Fowler is definitely ownable.

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It’s time to check in on the FanGraphs Experts League! You can see the full rosters in this introductory post.

Our intrepid hero is doing ‘comme ci comme ca’ as the French say – in seventh out of twelve. I’m not sure exactly which direction I should tack. Clearly, playing Ryan Raburn in my MI spot hasn’t worked out so well – perhaps it’s time to use one of my FOUR FAAB DOLLARS to drop Josh Thole (my third catcher) or David Hernandez (my J.J. Putz handcuff) and pickup a middle infielder. The problem with that idea is that, with 40-man rosters, I’m stuck looking at Jonathan Herrera and Felipe Lopez. In a twelve-teamer. Maybe it’s time for a trade.

I hope it’s not time to cash in a prospect for this problem. I still have high hopes for Travis Snider. I wonder if the commissioner (Amateur Hour) would give me his $2 Orlando Hudson or $1 Freddy Sanchez for my $3 Erik Bedard, $1 Aaron Harang, or $2 Matt LaPorta? I wonder if I would do that. With Josh Johnson, Mat Latos, Ricky Romero, Jaime Garcia and John Danks as my starting five, I could perhaps trade some pitching – perhaps I should put $1 Jarred Cosart on the block. In the meantime, I’m going to start chatting up Team Rotowire about Howie Kendrick, who has probably hit half of his yearly home run total already.

Let’s take a look at the leader right now. Earl Webb, run by BaseballHQ writer Neil FitzGerald. My first inclination is to say that he won’t stick around in first for very long, but after more inspection, I’m not sure. His veteran team is certainly propped up by some fast starts – Alex Rodriguez, Paul Konerko and Matt Kemp, in particular, have performed ‘ably’ in the early going. As those batting averages regress to career norms, he may have some uncomfortable moments. The back end of the Earl Webb rotation is also iffy – he has two of John Lackey, Scott Baker and James Shields running out there every day, and no minor league prospects that might restock him in the future.

In general, that’s the team’s weakness: It’s very old. Ben Revere, Lorenzo Cain and Carlos Carrasco might be his youngest players. Perhaps he’ll be able to sell some extra pieces for prospects. Saaaay… stopgap MI Chris Getz to me for young pitcher? He certainly won’t be hunting on the waiver wire unless someone loans him some money.

On the other hand, by being a veteran team, he doesn’t have any glaring holes (like my MI problem). His worst everyday players in the lineup are probably Austin Jackson and Vernon Wells. It gets much, much worse than that.