Most controversial players could be looked at from two different angles. We have plenty of tools at our disposal, but when the tools say different things, we don’t always know exactly where to focus. In order to help you see both sides of these players, RotoGraphs will be pubbing contrasting opinions on some interesting players in the next few weeks. Howard Bender gave us the positive aspects of Mike Morse on Saturday. Today it’s time to be negative.

To be perfectly clear, if Mike Morse is on your waiver wire still, he’s certainly a playable dude. To some extent, the gains he’s made so far are enough to put him on your bench and include him in your corner infield / outfield mix. At the very least, it looks like you’ll get some power value from him if he’s free.

But should you trade for him? Owners might be looking to sell high, and if he were to continue his current production, he might make for a sneaky buy-high. There are reasons to doubt that he can continue to do what he’s doing right now.

First, let’s look at the batting average. Morse has a .355 BABIP. Even though he’s the proud owner of a .349 career major league BABIP, that number has come in only 882 career plate appearances, and BABIP doesn’t usually stabilize until you’re talking multiple years of historical data. It just makes more sense to trust his .331 xBABIP. So there’s some batted ball luck contributing to his batting average.

But there’s more there. Morse is a bit of a swing-and-misser. He has a 27.2% strikeout rate this year (24.3% career), and a 12.1% swinging strike rate (8.5% is average). Those aren’t numbers normally associated with strong batting averages. Among qualified batters this year, Drew Stubbs‘ .266 batting average is the highest batting average put up by a player with a 27% strikeout rate or higher. Adam Jones does have a 12.3% swSTR% and a nice batting average, but one look at his 1.47 GB/FB ratio (compared to Morse’s 1.00) should set off some alarm bells. Jones puts the ball on the ground and utilizes his speed to overcome some of his contact issues. Morse has a career 2.9 speed score, and 5.0 is average.

Okay, so Morse may not have as nice of a batting average going forward. He may not even hit .280 if he continues to strike out this often. The worst-case batting average is only playable if the newfound power sticks around. Will it?

The one nice thing is that Morse, though he didn’t begin his major league career with power, has been slowly adding to that portion of his game. Starting with his trade to the Nationals in 2009, he’s begun hitting more fly balls, striking out more, and hitting for more power. Looks good, right?

Except that Morse was 27 in 2009. His minor league ISO was .154 – in ten seasons and over 3000 plate appearances. Morse had one life before this one, and in that one, he was a light-hitting middle infield prospect. We like to think that he’s shown power for three straight seasons now, but his combined plate appearance total for all three of those years is 545. That’s just short of the 550 plate appearances that Pizza Cutter recommended when evaluating ISO power.

So to recap, Morse has a shaky batting average that might dip as far as .260. He looks to have power that should at least result in a home run total in the mid-20s, but there’s still the long history of light hitting behind him. Of course, Jose Bautista has shown us that late power blooms are possible, but Morse has developed in a less explosive way and his upside seems more muted. If you got him for free, congratulate yourself. If you’re considering acquiring him using actual pieces of value, investigate yourself. Or at least read these two pieces before your make your decision.

After picking six for over 20 days straight, I’ve won one day. One stinking Bobby Valentine. Perhaps I’m not the best person to turn to for strategy in this particular game. I’ll offer it up anyway.

Mimicking my general fantasy strategy, I’ve been pushing money away from pitching. There are so many good matchups every day, why not find a good, cheap pitcher against a terrible offense? Last night, I chose a $17.75 Shaun Marcum (at home against New York), but that’s about the most expensive I’ll go for a starter. I was severely tempted by a $10.75 Daniel Hudson in Pittsburgh, and even Jonathan Sanchez at home against the Nationals made sense at $6.25 (or his opponent, the $3.50 Jordan Zimmermann). Don’t spend on starting.

If you are not going to spend on starting, there’s really no reason to spend on relieving. If a starter is no guarantee to perform on any given night, at least he’s guaranteed to show up and, you know, play. The ottoneu Dark Lord Niv Shah was kind enough to give me the points per position in the Pick Six game so far. Clearly, relievers are the red-headed step-children of the game.

After all that blabbing about not paying for pitching, it might be surprising to see that starting pitchers have the best number in this table. But the point wasn’t that pitchers are not worth spending money on, the point was that there were plenty of bargains. Niv is nothing if not eminently bug-able – he graciously gave me the points per dollar spent for each position.

Ah-hah. So, even just by groping my way through the dark with intuition instead of the numbers in front of me, it looks like I stumbled onto a viable strategy. Spend where you get the most return for your dollar: non-catcher offense.

Oh, and while you are at it, join a group! Now Pick Six has groups so that you attract like-minded players easily. Oh, and with groups you might be able to put a little friendly gummy-bear wager on the thing. If you like gummy bears or whatever. I’m in #PraiseBeltran and I started RotoGraphRegulars. Pimp your group here if you want others to join in!

These speedy outfielder dudes should be rostered in leagues in which they should be rostered, know what I mean?

Nyjer Morgan (Yahoo 11% owned, ESPN 7.1% owned)
Say what? What did Nyjer Morgan do to you to deserve these low ownership rates? Yes, he’s a little… excitable. Yes, he has an inflated BABIP (.465) that will return to earth. Yes, he has some plate discipline problems (4.4% BB, 25.4% K). Yes, this power he’s showing right now (.237 ISO) is not real when looked at in the context of his career numbers (.084 ISO). Oh, and yes, he’s a lefty with a poor platoon split so far in his career (.574 career OPS versus LHP in 300 at-bats) that might be platooned with Carlos Gomez in the outfield (.663 OPS versus LHP in 467 at-bats). All those things are true. Also true are the facts that Morgan has good speed. He has a strong enough glove to ignore some of his offensive faults. And Morgan is no offensive sinkhole like Gomez. Lastly, being able to play righties is much more important than playing lefties. There are more of them! Morgan should easily out-produce his ZIPS projection for plate appearances the rest of the way (287 plate appearances), given that two-thirds of the season remains and he should start in at least two-thirds of those games. Even with his plate discipline problems, Morgan mostly puts the ball on the ground and uses his speed to put up decent batting averages. Expect him to manage at least .280 in that category. This is one of those flawed real-life players that should be owned in most leagues that have twelve or more teams.

Eric Young Jr. (Yahoo 6% owned, ESPN 6.6% owned)
Amid rumors of a possible demotion headed his way, Dexter Fowler was instead disabled this weekend. A strained left abdominal muscle means that he’ll be out at least two weeks and a couple of interesting names will get some burn. First in line is Eric Young Jr, who has the wheels of his father but maybe not the infield glove. Now, with center field open, he’ll likely play every day and rack up the steals. His lack of power and line drives, and average-ish strikeout rate, mean that he won’t likely have a batting average even as nice as Nyjer Morgan’s, so he’s more of a deep-leaguer. The second-base eligibility is icing on the cake. Keep an eye out for Charlie Blackmon, too. He’s raking in the minor leagues (.346/.402/.582) and is a long-time NERD high-scorer. He’s probably more of a natural center fielder, and the team could play both him and Young if they want to avoid playing Ty Wigginton or Jonathan Herrera on any given day.

Not every big fly is a home run.

Fantasy players in leagues that count slugging percentage know that they can find a competitive advantage in players that don’t hit home runs but do manage plenty of extra base hits. Those in ottoneu linear weights leagues know the same. So let’s look at some different players that have added value in leagues that count extra base hits that are not home runs.

The first idea that comes to mind is doubles power. Perhaps there are some players that hit doubles but don’t really have the power to get those balls over the wall (dirty). This year, the doubles leader is Michael Young, which might come as a surprise considering his two home runs so far. Other players with lower home run totals that appear in the top ten are Alex Gordon and Chipper Jones. Jacoby Ellsbury and Billy Butler are the only other surprises in the top ten.

The most attainable of this crew might be Gordon. He’s showing the best power of his career when measured by ISO (.181), but we know that statistic takes the longest to stabilize. Will his doubles power continue to offer value in non-home-run-centered leagues? It seems yes. Since strikeout rate stabilizes early and Gordon’s 21.4% strikeout percentage is the best of his career, we can assume that he’ll put more balls into play than in his average year. Contact percentage becomes reliable early as well, and his current 81.6% contact rate is well above his career number (76.8%). Put more balls into play with above-average career power (.163 ISO career, .150 is average), and you’ll end up at second base often enough. Consider trying to acquire Gordon if you need extra points in linear weights leagues, or some extra slugging percentage in OPS leagues.

Another way to add value in these non-traditional leagues is to show an above-average ISO when your home-run power is pedestrian. Most of the ISO leaderboard is conventional. Obviously Jose Bautista leads the list and Curtis Granderson and Mike Stanton follow closely. But you might be surprised to find Russell Martin and Shane Victorino rounding out the top 30 in that statistic.

Martin deserves some attention on his own because his work is superlative when seen in the context of his career. But Victorino has long been a secret boon in leagues that measure power in ways other than home runs. His career ISO is .153, but he’s bettered that mark since 2008. This year, by making more contact, he’s hitting the most fly balls of his career. That might seem like a poor idea for a speedy hitter, but obviously the Phillie center fielder has some power. Last year, Victorino did not hit 30 doubles for the third straight year, but he did manage to hit a career-high in home runs. if he doesn’t hit 20 home runs this year, expect him to challenge 30 doubles like he used to. Either way, Victorino, once healthy, will provide great power in leagues that can see past his pedestrian home run total.

Let’s take a quick look at one of the more decimated outfields in the big leagues. The Atlanta Braves haven’t had a good outfield in years, but going into this season, they had trade acquisition Nate McLouth manning center and two home-cooked products in Martin Prado and Jason Heyward on the corners. It looked like it could be a decent-to-strong group and a change of pace for the Braves.

This weekend, Heyward went on the DL with his rotator cuff inflammation and McLouth left a game early with an oblique problem. That’s a good way to test your depth. Unfortunately, the Braves are short on depth in the outfield. Let’s look at the winners in this outfield mess.

Eric Hinske (4% owned in Yahoo, 8.3% in ESPN)
Obviously this career .256 hitter won’t continue to hit .355, especially when he’s out there playing every day. Most worrisome is what will happen when he goes up against lefties — some of his success this year have some from being hid versus same-handed pitchers (69 of 81 PAs have come against righties). He has a .300 OBP and .385 SLG against lefties, career, and those numbers go up to .347 and .456 against righties. If you can sit him against lefties, he makes for a good short-term pickup in deeper leagues just because he will be playing regularly and has a little pop. One note about his BABIP — since he’s been hitting balls on the ground more often this year, he actually has a .339 xBABIP. Yes, his .442 BABIP will regress, but it might not regress to his career .301 BABIP. He will probably put in the best seasonal batting average of his career this year.

Joe Mather (0% owned in Yahoo, 0.3% owned in ESPN
Acquired from the Cardinals in the offseason for outfield depth, Mather is now on fire in a small sample size. As a right-hander, he’ll probably work as Hinske’s caddy versus lefties — he’s not a center fielder by trade. He played all over the diamond in Atlanta’s Triple-A affiliate (1B, 3B, LF, RF), but never in center, and he’s been moved to the corner outfield gradually over his career. On the other hand, despite being better against lefties in the minor leagues, Mather has not shown great numbers against major league lefties to date. His current swinging strike percentage (13.5%), paired with his BABIP (.545), suggests the batting average is headed for a nose dive.

The Rest
If McLouth hits the DL for an extended period of time for his oblique injury, a truer center fielder than Mather will be required. Diory Hernandez took over for McLouth in Sunday’s game, but the shortstop moved to third base, pushing Martin Prado back out to left fied and Mather in to center. Hernandez, however, hits like the defensive replacement he is. Could Jordan Schafer or Matt Young get the call? Both are better defensive center fielders, perhaps, than a career infielder. Neither is playing very well in Triple-A (.256/.309/.323 for Schafer and .255/.354/.306 for Young) but both are on the 40-man roster. Schafer is, however, showing the best strikeout rate of his career in the young season. If McLouth’s oblique is a problem, he might come up. If the new strikeout rate persists, he might be able to pair a decent batting average with some speed and a little bit of power (though, to be fair, the power has disappeared since 2009). Cautious interest, even in deeper leagues, is the best tactic here.

Sometimes you just get bitter. Like when your FanGraphs ottoneu Experts League team has just been staring at fifth place for a month and a half in a keeper league and there’s absolutely no way to know which way to go. Sell or buy? Well, let me have a healthy week or two and I’ll decide, eh?

The David Wright injury will hurt me, but it’s a situation in my outfield that has me most upset. Nelson Cruz went down – that was obviously a risk going in, given his history. Then Angel Pagan went down, and really that’s a ditto. And Grady Sizemore? That’s on me too I guess. Travis Snider was a backup plan, though, and that went out the window with all the strikeouts. Hey maybe I deserved it?

That doesn’t help me be any less bitter. So I head over to the new leaders team, the one belonging to Tim Heaney and the crew from KFFL. I should be able to find some sell-high guys there, right?

Uh, not so much. Alex Avila, Mark Teixeira, Brandon Phillips, Starlin Castro, Aaron Hill, Evan Longoria, Juan Pierre, Ian Desmond… looks fine here. On the staff? Dan Haren, Tommy Hanson and Jhoulys Chacin are all pre-season favorites and are strong bets to continue their fine performances. Huston Street, and Jordan Walden are his only official closers, but Kenley Jansen and Daniel Bard make for fine future closers. This is a nice team.

That isn’t to say that there aren’t a couple players on the team perhaps performing beyond their capabilities. Drew Stubbs is striking out 27.5% of the time and has a .349 BABIP supporting his .281 batting average right now. Once that BABIP returns to earth – and we’re talking .325ish territory, since he does have good speed – he won’t have a real-nice looking batting average. He’ll still have power and speed, though, as his .181 ISO is right in line with career norms and he stole 46 bases at his last stop in Triple A (in 472 PAs). So, yeah, still a good player.

Same theme with Curtis Granderson. Sure, he won’t slug .643 all year and his .364 ISO will return to earth some. But he’s also hitting the ball in the air more and squarely in his power prime at 30 years old. Even with a little power regression, KFFL should be able to bank at least 35 home runs from their $14 player. Not so bad. Once money is considered, does it even matter if the $1 Brennan Boesch is a platoon player with an inflated BABIP? He’s playing well enough to fill in for the suddenly resurgent Adam Lind. Can you sense the bitterness?

Dudes even got Alexi Ogando for $2 so that takes the sails right out from any mention of his .193 BABIP or continued platoon split (4.85 FIP against lefties). Well, at least they spent $18 on Delmon Young, amiright. Even some BABIP love won’t help if he continues to pound that rock into the ground 50% of the time. Gotta get em up to get em out.

What really gets me, though, is this graph from the new ‘Reports’ tab in ottoneu. Check my team going in the wrong direction, and KFFL going through the roof. It’s enough to eat your hat.