In his Minor League career, Danny Duffy had a 10.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, and generally blew the doors off the hinges when he was in the game. A short stint away from the game dinged him in some scouting reports, but when he returned, it was all systems go for the young lefty with mid-90s gas and multiple secondary pitches with bite and break.

Then Duffy spent 2011 putting up 105.1 innings of 7.43 K/9, 4.38 BB/9, 1.28 HR/9, and generally blew goats when he was in the game. Even a short offseason away from the game couldn’t undo that ding, and he came into the season mostly un-noticed in fantasy circles. He went into Tuesday night’s game against the Athletics owned in 3% of Yahoo leagues.

Should his six innings of eight-strikeout, four-walk, one-hit ball in a pitcher-friendly park against a pitcher-friendly lineup erase the memory of a half-season like Duffy had in 2011? Probably not. But unpacking why Duffy did well might help us decide if he is capable of doing so more often this season.

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Whenever we go out, the people always shout: “Is it time to pick up Jon Jay for my lineup quick?” And I say: “Probably not if he’s available in your league,” which doesn’t quite make for a good song. But it might make for a good RotoGraphs post.

Yahoo tells us that Jay is available in 91% of leagues, which means that he’s off the board in NL-only leagues and probably not available in eighteen- or twenty-team leagues. And if your 14-team league has five outfielders, should Jay be one of them? For example, my Blog Wars team has Cody Ross and Michael Brantley sharing my final outfield slot. Jon Jay is gone even in that league.

Which probably means he’s not a great pickup if he’s available in your league. He just looks more attractive until you poke around under the hood.

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Opening Day 4.0 chat!

Juan Francisco is in Atlanta. Paul Janish is headed to Louisville. That means Todd Frazier has made the Cincinnati Reds. He probably deserves more attention than your typical final roster guy.

For example, take a look at how his last two years at Triple-A stack up against popular middle infield sleeper (and 27-year-old) Zack Cozart:
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Jason Bay is owned in 32% of Yahoo leagues. Those 32% must not be Mets fans.

If you’ve been watching Bay in the blue and orange, there hasn’t been much to like for two years now. Well, his strikeout and walk rates have held steady so far, but it’s the power that disappeared and never came back, and it was the power that put all those zeroes on his last contract. Maybe that home run derby appearance was a harbinger — since his last year with the Red Sox, Bay has hit fewer fly balls and more ground balls every year. And his isolated power has come down from his peak to his nadir accordingly.

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Probably a lot of people drafting today, huh? So we’ve got, in order, Chad Young, Eno Sarris, and David Wiers — plus others, maybe — on hand to help starting at 11 am EST. Use us.

Let’s talk FanGraphs: The Game and other fantasy baseball. I mean, I’ll do what I can to help y’all. But, the game’s out there, and it’s play or get played. That simple. So see you at noon-thirty.

Short but simple piece right here. I just finished drafting my 12th league, so with an “n” of 12, let’s see who I like. The simplest way to do this is to list the players I own most. So, here we go.

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Thursdays in this time slot, we’ll have some of FanGraphs’ finest talk about ScoreSheet baseball, which some consider the “realest” fantasy baseball out there. There’s defense, lineups, simulations… it’s complicated like real baseball.

This faithful correspondent is a rookie at the format. So I may be asking you, from time to time, what y’all think about this or that. This week, I’m setting my first lineups. And I’m looking at this hook thing.

First, the results of my draft, in AL-Skeeter, the 12-team AL-only keeper led by the ineffable King Kaufman. Let’s represent them in the general lineup order, without going through and breaking them out by handedness like you do in the real game. Lefties have the asterisk.

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FanGraphs vs. The Hardball Times. And you can take part.

The RotoGraphs squad is taking on a group from The Hardball Times in a fantasy showdown. Our own Howard Bender, Chris Benson, Mike Podhorzer, Dan Wade, Brandon Warne, and David Wiers took part in an auction last night and they’ll be battling six foes from The Hardball Times for fantasy glory… and a $600 prize that will go to the charity of the winner’s choice. Most likely, the cash will end up going to the Leukemia Society, because, most likely, we’re going to win.

We’ll be writing about this from time to time to keep you up to date and discuss issues that come up, but there’s a twist — you can get involved if you like.

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