The Cubs are in trouble. Their lineup is pretty bad, their rotation only has a couple decent pieces, and their bullpen. Oh, their bullpen. By ERA, it’s only the eighth-worst pen in the league, but FIP (2nd worst) and xFIP (worst) tell a better story.

After Carlos Marmol blew up, they tried Rafael Dolis. His wildness relieved him of his duties around the same time the team decided Michael Bowden needed more time in the minors. Lefty James Russell and right Shawn Camp, both better cast as supporting, lower-leverage pieces in a better pen, are now sharing the role, with the also-underwhelming Casey Coleman looking in, ready for his chance.

Each update on the situation does goad reaction from the saves-hungry hoards, but there’s a more important question lurking behind. Should we care at all about messy situations like those in the Cubs pen right now?

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A couple players are possibly going in different directions in the National League outfield, but each has implications for deeper leagues.

Jason Bay (14% owned)
Bay is back in Willets Bay and supposedly will get his starting job back, but there are plenty of reasons to worry about his security. It’s possible some powerful box-score results are hiding some iffy batter peripherals, and no matter how hopeful you are about him, the fact remains that the 33-year-old has been declining forcefully in his early thirties.

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We’re deep in the heart of Roy Oswalt Watch 2012, which is not quite a hullabaloo but is slowly ratcheting up the volume and frequency. Now the rumor is that he’ll go to the Rangers. Should he picked up in all leagues right now?

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Sorry we haven’t been keeping up on the Scoresheet coverage. Here’s the problem: so far, my team is terrible. I don’t feel I can advise anyone on this format yet. In fact, I need your help! So, I’ll post my team here and ask you what I should do. Because the latest results just came in, and after being shut out twice this week, I’m now worst in the league at 13-31. I should sell, but I can’t sell low. I don’t even know what to sell for, other than a third baseman, and maybe some offense.

I hang my head in shame.

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Headed into the season, the Red Sox outfield looked like a strength. Sure, Carl Crawford wasn’t going to be ready at the start of the season, but once he was, him Jacoby Ellsbury, and then a combo of Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney until Ryan Kalish got healthy — that sounded like a nice plan. Then the doctor came and gave the team the bad news. Their outfield had died.

But just because most of the Red Sox outfield has gotten bad news from the doctor doesn’t mean that you should just wash your hands of the unit and move on. After all, the Red Sox still score runs like an elite team, and even a one-category wonder like Sweeney can start to move the needle in runs and RBI thanks to their teammates. Let’s take a look at who’s playing now and where they should be owned.

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It can be difficult to write up some moves. For example, when one great reliever takes over a high-leverage role from another great reliever in the midst of having some bad luck, it seems there’s little to say. Sean Marshall is good, but Aroldis Chapman is better. Done?

Sean Marshall has a 1.42 xFIP based on a double-digit strikeout rate, a minuscule walk rate, and a great ground-ball rate that should lead to a better home run rate than he’s showing now. Aroldis Chapman has a 1.53 xFIP based on a double-digit strikeout rate, and above-average walk rate (right now), and an average-ish ground-ball rate that has been better over his career. What he does have, that Marshall doesn’t, is the velocity of a closer. Still humping it over the plate above 97 MPH, he has some of the best gas in the game.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some hurdles for him to overcome on his way to being a lights-out closer.

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A Stud with a capital ‘S’ went down in many outfields this week when the Dodgers decided that Matt Kemp and his balky hamstring needed at least two weeks to mend. Since deep leaguers often need to pick up the team’s actual replacement — anybody else with power and speed is already owned — let’s see if the Dodgers themselves will produce a fantasy-worthy replacement.

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