Short and simple. Using slash 12’s batted-ball-based xBABIP, updated by Jeff Zimmerman, I pulled together the 2012 xBABIPs for all players with more than 300 PAs. I’ve posted them below, sorted from ‘luckiest’ to ‘least lucky,’ and the full document is also here on a google spreadsheet for your use.
Enjoy!
In a testament to the weakness of the position, Jordan Pacheco spent 505 plate appearances being seven percent worse than league average with his stick, and yet he ended the season as the eleventh-best catcher, worth five dollars in 5×5 mixed leagues when all was said and done. It’s a head-scratcher, at least going forward.
A.J. Ellis turned 31 last season. That might surprise you, since he had only 244 career plate appearances before this season. He’s so long been the focus of stat-heads for his walk rate that he might have debuted right at his power peak. That allowed him to show the best power of his career and “leap” up to fantasy replacement level status as the 17th-best backstop in roto last season.
But without that power, he ends up a lot like Ruben Tejada among shortstops — devoid of the skills that make a player valuable in most fantasy baseball leagues. No power, no speed, and only a walk rate… that doesn’t play in your average 5×5 fantasy league.
Still baseball, fantasy baseball and beer in thirds, more or less, still me, still that Friday fresh feeling, but now on Thursdays.
In real life, Ruben Tejada had a decent season, especially at his cost. For a half mill, the Mets got a player that put up average defense at a premium position. He added a stick that was only eight percent worse than league average, and actually above-average for his position (86 wRC+). All of that together added up to a league-average player getting paid just about the league minimum.
Fantasy baseball doesn’t care. Linear weights, 4×4, 5×5 — there’s virtually no format in which Tejada’s offensive contributions last year were above replacement in a mixed league. Even in deeper leagues, his skills just don’t translate. In 5×5 roto leagues, he was the 27th-best shortstop and worth negative four dollars this year.
Erick Aybar is a perennial sleeper. You might make a joke about never waking up here, except that just last year he hit ten home runs and stole thirty bases and looked like a reasonable starting shortstop in every fantasy league. This year’s work was a step back — only eight home runs and 20 stolen bases — and left him on the outside of the top twelve in our end-of-season rankings.
Here’s the thing though. He was still a decent starting-level shortstop in most leagues — when he was in the lineup.
Kyle Seager broke the F out this season. He hit 20 home runs, stole 13 bases, and basically cemented himself a starting role going forward. Though it’s also great news that all of this production was in line with the work he did in the minor leagues, that same fact leaves us wondering how much breakout is left for the 25-year-old infielder.
There’s a new and improved arbitration process in ottoneu this year. The deadline for your submissions is coming up. So if you want to think out loud about the decisions on your table, we’ll try to help. We’ll give ottoneu questions the priority, but if you’ve got a auction/keeper question in general, heave ho! You never know how many people are still out of power — thoughts to our brothers and sisters on the Eastern Seabord as they dig out from under the storm.
Adrian Beltre turned 33 before this season. No matter if you look at his plate discipline or power components, the aging curves say that he’s post-peak and we should see some decline. Not every player follows the curves the same, but look at Beltre’s recent years, and it just looks like he’s getting better. Impossible.