Over the last three years, Adam Jones has hit between .280 and .287, launched between 25 and 33 homers, and stolen between 12 and 16 bases. Considering the way team performances vary from year to year, the fact that he’s managed between 152 and 208 runs and RBI combined is pretty steady as well. But before we pencil him in for more of the same, we should probably give him a workup. After all, he’ll turn 29 next season, and age comes for us all.

Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone trying to predict this game gets things wrong. Take for example, me. I took a look at Shin-Soo Choo on the Indians and thought he’d be a perfect guy to sell high before his eroding athleticism became more obvious. Ooops? Let’s check more closely, though. We do know he went from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s one, and that can go a long way towards covering up a continued decline.

Read the rest of this entry »

Every once in a while, something as simple as the way a player is talked about can give us some insight into their fantasy value. Take, for instance, this recent tweet from Ken Rosenthal about Jed Lowrie and Oakland’s plans:

Lots of speculation that #Athletics would move Lowrie. Keep hearing no. Plan was for him to be two-year bridge to Russell. This is year two.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 12, 2013

There are a few things to unpack here.

Read the rest of this entry »

Every player is risky, and paranoia usually serves you well in fantasy. So even when you look at a player like Ian Desmond, who has gone 20/20 with a .280+ batting average in two straight years at a tough position — it’s worth checking under the hood and identifying where the 27-year-old could regress in the coming season.

Read the rest of this entry »

Pablo Sandoval’s weight has been mentioned plenty of times before. Often the reason is a potential move to first base, given the need for some athleticism at third base. But then there are all the injuries that he’s suffered over the first five years of his career. It’s fair to wonder if the weight affects him most when it comes to staying healthy. Is that fair? What do the careers of other bigger position players tell us?

Read the rest of this entry »

Down in Arizona to get one last fix of baseball before the lean winter months, I had the distinct pleasure of getting to watch Alex Meyer pitch three innings of shutout ball against the AFL East All-Star lineup — while sitting behind two excellent young fellows from Trackman baseball. There’s very little PITCHf/x in the minor leagues, and usually competitor Trackman’s data is proprietary and under lock and key. But in Arizona, the company enjoys its best chance to openly market their radar-based approach to pitch tracking, and the numbers their system provided were an interesting guide to a dominant outing by the Twins’ best pitching prospect.

Read the rest of this entry »

Well there was one rumor that Brandon Phillips would get traded to the Braves, but then the Braves insisted that Dan Uggla be a part of the deal and we haven’t heard that trade rumor again in a while. So no, the title isn’t about flocking south for the Winter or a trade rumor, the title is about the fact that Brandon Phillips is post-peak. Decidedly so.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ignore one category, and you might wonder why Matt Carpenter was ranked second among all second basemen in fantasy value in 2013. He hit 11 homers, stole three bases, and drove in 78 runs. Even Ichiro Suzuki, when he was someone you could count on for batting average — like you *might* be able to do with Carpenter — hit about as many homers and stole ten times as many bases when he was going well.

But there is that batting average. And there are those runs scored. And if he regresses in those two categories, will the 27-year-old build in other areas to combat that regression?

Read the rest of this entry »

If your league counts all players that have started once at a position as eligible there, well then Victor Martinez can catch for you next year. And you’re luckier for it. But anyone else that played him at catcher this year was enjoying the last vestiges of V-Mart as a top-five player at any position. And though he provided value with a strange mix of skills, here’s betting he can be valuable again next year, even as a first baseman.

Read the rest of this entry »

In order to rank only those that played a significant amount, we only looked at players that put in more than 400 plate appearances of work last season. For most positions, that should be fine. For the catcher position, it was a little more iffy. The top 30 catchers by plate appearances only averaged 451 plate appearances, and seven catchers played enough to hit double-digit homers without crossing the 400 PA threshold. Mike Podhorzer will look into Wilson Ramos and Evan Gattis, the most prominent catchers that failed to hit that mark, but there are some other interesting names further down the list.

Read the rest of this entry »