The son’s asleep, and I could be taking a nap or running, both things that would be good for my health. But love of one’s work is also good for your health, and I just realized how much I love breaking down a pitcher. Something about having a full set of pitches, each with their own ups and downs and interactions with the hitters, is very compelling. In Griffin’s case, I automatically just put him in the Big Ole Curveball section: big hump curveball, not great fastball, gives up the homers but has good control. It’s the Ted Lilly wing of baseball.

But, considering I hope to talk to him this year about his spike curve grip, it’s worth checking into his game again after a second strong year. Maybe he’s a little more than just a curveball.

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Take a look at Jose Quintana’s collection of pitches, and there’s not much there to appreciate. Kind of makes you wonder how he does what he does, even if that creep can roll. His ERA is in the top 40 over the last two years, and yet none of his three most important peripheral stats rank in the top 40… how has he become more than the sum of his parts?

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Grant Balfour has never called a hitter-friendly stadium home. He’s about to, since he signed a two-year deal to ostensibly be the closer in Baltimore. Will it matter?

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Strikeouts, man. Alone, they predict next year’s ERA better than FIP! They’re an important category by themselves, and then they predict good work in the other categories, so they’re a double threat. At some point though, you have to worry about the other categories too. Edinson Volquez cough cough.

Matt Moore is no Edinson Volquez. But his followup season had enough flaws that you might be worried that — despite the strikeouts — Moore’s not going to age very well.

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It looks like it’s done. Mark Trumbo to the Diamondbacks, Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago to the Angels, and Adam Eaton to the White Sox. Who wins? Who loses? Let’s shake the tree and see what falls out.

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He’s 27, so maybe it’s not surprising. But over 1800 innings into his career, Felix Hernandez isn’t really showing any signs of decline yet. Well, if you ignore one stat.

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No team gave up as many runs in the seventh inning or later last postseason, and so one offseason goal was clear for the Tigers: improve the bullpen. So the Tigers started at the back end of the bullpen and are finalizing the details for a two-year contract with Joe Nathan. They had the money because of recent cost-saving measures, and they had the need, and the contract isn’t long. What’s the prognosis for Nathan over the next two years?

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Obviously, the tools are there. Dexter Fowler can run, can hit with pop, has a good eye at the plate, and is a good defender. Those tools have made him an above-average regular by ‘real baseball’ measures and a top-sixty outfielder, worth more than seven bucks last year by our retrospective fantasy value measures.

And yet, his owners are probably getting tired of continually being teased by upside beyond. Just google his name and ‘breakout’ and see how many results you get, spread over the last three years.

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The Pirates have a corner outfielder coming that should combine plus defense with power and speed. 22-year-old Gregory Polanco even played in Double-A last year, so he’s close. But does the team want to slot him in from the get-go? Doesn’t seem like it. Because Pittsburgh added Jaff Decker to the fold over the weekend. Now there’s a stable of solutions in right field, and some short-term opportunity for those guys to step forward. And if any of them do so successfully, there’s even a chance they continue to play when Polanco is up… it’s not like Gaby Sanchez is going to keep them on the bench.

That’s how you get to the Jaff Decker, Travis Snider, Andrew Lambo, Gaby Sanchez, Jerry Sands and Jose Tabata solution.

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The Indians finalized their two-year, $12 million deal with David Murphy today. He’s projected for two wins by Steamer, and in the past that front office has pegged the cost per win much higher than we’ve had it on this site. So it’s probably a good deal if he can manage to put up two wins in those two years combined. But should fantasy owners care?

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