In 2008, Ian Stewart posted a .259/.349/.455 line with ten homers in 266 at bats. However, Stewart also struck out in 35% of his at bats. His .259 batting average was inflated by a .362 BABIP – yes, he hit line drives on 25% of his balls in play, suggesting that his BABIP was not abnormally high, but that line-drive percentage was well out of line with line-drive percentages that he had put up throughout his career, and there’s no reason to think that it (or the high BABIP) will continue next season. Thus, it would follow that Stewart’s batting average should fall.

But no so fast. Stewart struck out a LOT this year – in fact, only five players with at least 200 plate appearances struck out more often. However, Stewart’s plate discipline from this year, as well as his minor league track record, both suggest that he will not continue to strike out as often in the future.

In triple-A this year, Stewart struck out in 25.7% of his at bats. Last year in triple-A he struck out in 22.2% of his at bats. In fact, throughout his minor league career Stewart struck out in 23.6% of his at bats, despite being young for his level most of the time.

Of course, it’s more difficult to hit in the majors than in the minors. That being said, Stewart’s plate discipline numbers also suggest that his strikeout rate will come down in the future.

Stewart only swung at 28.5% of pitches out of the strike zone – right at major league average in 2008. Even more telling, however, is his contact percentage. Stewart made contact with 71.3% of the pitches he swung at – a low number, yes, but higher than other players with similar strikeout rates. For example, Mark Reynolds, Jack Cust, and Ryan Howard made contact with 62.3%, 65.1%, and 66.5% of the pitches they swung at, respectively.

Furthermore, Stewart is only 23 years old. Yes, he will probably strike out a lot in the future, but he is quite unlikely to strike out in 35% of his at bats, as he did this year. Therefore, even if his BABIP falls next year (which it probably will), his batting average may not fall if he indeed strikes out less often.

Stewart also hit a high proportion of fly balls this year, both in the majors and the minors. However, last year more than half of his balls in play were grounders. If Stewart can maintain his high amount of fly balls, Coors Field will allow him to hit a lot of homers. If he reverts to his groundballing ways, his power will suffer.

While Stewart is raw and rather risky, he has a lot of upside, especially given the fact that he plays for Colorado and will qualify at third base. If he can cut is strikeout rate, his batting average won’t fall too much even after his BABIP falls, and if Stewart can continue to hit lots of fly balls he could produce excellent power numbers.

Kevin Slowey had a solid year for the Twins, posting a 3.99 ERA in 160 innings. Slowey’s biggest strength is his impeccable control – he issued only 24 walks in 160 innings, the lowest walk rate (1.35 per nine) of any pitcher who pitched at least 100 innings this year.

However, Slowey also struck out his share of hitters, accumulating 123 strikeouts. But what’s more, Slowey appeared to improve his strikeout rate as the season wore on.

In his first ten starts of the season, Slowey sported a solid 4.37 ERA, and had walked only nine batters in 57 innings. However, true to scouting reports, had struck out only 39 – for a rate of 6.15 per nine. This was more than enough to get by, considering his incredibly low walk rate, but it was far from dominant.

But then Slowey had a start in San Diego.

I don’t know if there is a pitcher in baseball better suited for PETCO Park than Kevin Slowey – a flyball pitcher who attacks the strike zone. Slowey predictably pitched very well on June 24 in San Diego, allowing no runs or walks in six innings, and striking out seven. And for only the second time all season, Slowey induced ten swinging strikes in his start.

Slowey carried this into his next two starts, inducing seventeen and ten swinging strikes in them, respectively. And from that point forward, Slowey was a different pitcher.

Starting with his June 24 start in San Diego, Slowey finished the season with a 3.77 ERA in 102 innings. He still walked a phenomenally low amount of hitters – 15, to be exact – but his strikeouts went up. In those 102 innings, he struck out 84 batters, for a rate of 7.41 per nine. He remained homer-prone, allowing 12 long balls during the stretch, but the increase in strikeouts was coupled with an increase in the amount of swinging strikes he induced as well.

Before June 24, batters swung and missed at 7.9% of Slowey’s pitches. After (and including) June 24, batters swung and missed at 9.2% of his pitches. During this time, Slowey received approximately the same percentage of called strikes. In other words, batters were taking pitches for strikes just as often, but were swinging and missing more often, leading to additional strikeouts.

It would be okay for a pitcher who walks as few batters as Slowey to only strike out six batters per nine. But if a pitcher like Slowey can get that strikeout rate up over seven per nine, then we’re talking about someone with a good chance of posting an ERA around 3.50 (or lower) – even with his propensity to give up homers. Furthermore, Slowey’s absurdly low walk rate helps keep his WHIP low, giving him increased value in fantasy leagues.

Slowey has always been a fly ball pitcher – almost 45% of his balls in play were fly balls this year – and, since he doesn’t throw particularly hard, he is almost certainly going to be prone to the long ball. However, he’s so stingy with free passes that many of the homers hit against him are going to be solo shots. Furthermore, if he can maintain the pace at which he was striking batters out during the second half of the season, he will curtail his homer total simply because batters won’t put as many balls in play.

Think of Kevin Slowey as someone who can post an ERA of around 4, a WHIP of around 1.15 or 1.20, with a strikeout rate of approximately six batters per nine (which equates to 133 Ks over 200 innings) who plays on a good-but-not-great team. It’s unlikely that Slowey will be much worse than this.

However, if the Slowey we saw in the second half of the season is for real, he is capable of putting up an ERA of around 3.40-3.60, with a WHIP in the 1.10 range and a strikeout rate of 7.5 per nine (equaling 167 Ks over 200 innings). This may be optimistic, but Slowey has shown that he is capable of putting up these numbers for an extended period of time.

Draft Slowey expecting the conservative set of numbers – which are still pretty good. But don’t be surprised if he exceeds those expectations.

In 2008, Cliff Lee won the AL Cy Young by posting a 2.54 ERA and winning 22 games. Of course, the win total is somewhat out of his control – Roy Halladay won “only” 20 games despite pitching 23 more innings for a better team. But Lee’s 2.54 ERA came coupled with a 170/34 K/BB ratio in 223 innings. Lee’s rate of 1.37 walks per nine innings was the lowest of any starting pitcher in baseball.

Furthermore, Lee didn’t benefit from a tremendous amount of good luck. His BABIP was .305, and he stranded 78.3% of the runners who reached base against him (a high number, yes, but remember: good pitchers are going to strand more runners than bad ones, simply because they have a better chance of getting any individual hitter out). However, Lee was fortunate to only give up 12 homers, as only 5.1% of his fly balls became homers, a number that will almost surely rise next year.

Lee posted an impressive 2.83 FIP this year. However, his xFIP – which regresses home run rate back to league average – was 3.69: still excellent, but much higher than his FIP.

Lee’s tRA and tRA* follow similar patterns: his tRA (which is not regressed) was 2.87, but his tRA* – which regresses things like home run rates – was 3.81. For those unfamiliar with tRA*, you subtract .40 to put it back on an ERA scale. So the ERA-equivalent of Lee’s tRA* was 3.41.

And 3.41 sounds like an appropriate approximation for what to expect from Lee next season. There’s little reason to think his newfound control will not continue next season (although he may not have the lowest walk rate of any starter), and the fact that he combines this impeccable control with an above-average amount of swinging strikes (7.9%) bodes quite well for him. He will almost certainly give up more homers, as the rate of fly balls becoming homers this year was unsustainably low.

Furthermore, while the Indians should be a good team, don’t get suckered in to thinking that Lee is going to win more games than a “normal” front-of-the-rotation pitcher. Yes, Lee should once again be good and yes the Indians should win a lot of games, but it’s a lot more likely that Lee will win 14-17 games, rather than 20+.

Cliff Lee is probably going to be one of the better pitchers in the American League once again, and should be valued as such. However, he is extremely unlikely to repeat his 2.54 ERA, and is also unlikely to even post an ERA under three. Lee is good, but be very careful about overvaluing him on draft day.

Andrew Miller may have been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball in 2008.

Miller posted a 5.87 ERA in 107 innings, and eventually earned a ticket back to triple-A. However, Miller’s BABIP was .346 – fourth highest of all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. His LOB% was 59.9% – second highest of all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. While BABIP and LOB% are correlated – if you give up more hits on balls in play, you’re less likely to strand runners on base – it’s not an exact correlation. For example, Miller’s LOB% was lower than the three pitchers who posted a worse BABIP this year.

The combination of Miller’s awful BABIP and awful LOB% will probably make this next statement not terribly surprising, but interesting nonetheless:

Andrew Miller had the largest discrepancy between his FIP and ERA of any pitcher in baseball who pitched at least 100 innings.

Miller’s FIP was 4.00, while his ERA was 5.87. There is no logical reason why Andrew Miller’s FIP should “overrate” him – more likely, Miller simply experienced a large confluence of random variation, leading him to give up many more runs than he “should” have.

Miller’s 89/57 K/BB ratio was less than desirable, but the high amount of strikeouts does bode rather well for him. He induced a decent number of ground balls – 45.9%, to be exact – but his track record suggests that this number may go up, thereby reducing the number of homers he allows.

I am not suggesting that Andrew Miller is going to morph into a fantasy ace next season. However, his 5.87 ERA is probably going to completely scare away many people. You, the astute fantasy player, will understand that Miller suffered from a tremendous amount of bad luck last year and is likely to see his ERA fall simply due to regression. A guy who strikes out 7.5 batters per nine and has an ERA around 4.20 is valuable, especially if he can be had very late in drafts. Furthermore, Miller has even more upside beyond that (although it’s rather unlikely that he’ll reach it in 09).

Andrew Miller is no ace (at least not yet), but he’s a heck of a lot better than his 2008 number suggest.

Josh Beckett was essentially the same pitcher in 2008 that he was in 2007.

His walks, strikeouts, and homers were essentially exactly the same:

Beyond that, the percentage of balls and strikes he threw, as well as the percentage of swinging strikes he induced and pitches that were put in play were exactly the same:

And yet, Beckett’s ERA was 4.03 in 2008 and 3.27 in 2007. What gives?

Well, the first thing we can point to is that Beckett’s BABIP was .327 in 2008. Interestingly, it was above-average in 2007 as well, at .316. However, there’s no reason to think that this is anything except two straight seasons of bad luck – the Red Sox had fantastic defenses during both of these seasons, and Beckett’s career BABIP is .301. There’s no reason to think that Beckett will post a higher-than-usual BABIP in 2009. Still, this doesn’t explain Beckett’s higher ERA in 08 than 07.

Beckett stranded slightly less in 08 (71.3%) than he did in 07 (75.2%), but this wasn’t a huge change. He did allow a higher opponent’s OPS with runners in scoring position in 08 than 07 – in 08 it was .639, while in 07 it was .550.

In fact, with RISP in 2008, Beckett walked hitters at twice the rate that he did in 07. Beckett also allowed more extra base hits with runners in scoring position in 08 than he did in 07. However, he still struck batters out at the same rate in every situation in both years.

Beckett’s biggest problem in 2008 (as well as 2007, although to a lesser extent) was his home ballpark. Beckett posted a 5.65 ERA at home in 2008, compared to a 2.85 ERA on the road. In 2007, his home ERA was 4.17, and his road ERA was 2.18. Indeed, Fenway is a hitter’s park, and Beckett’s struggles at home shouldn’t be ignored by fantasy owners. However, Beckett is still such a good pitcher that it’s unlikely that his ERA will be over 5 at home once again. That said, Beckett has shown to be a much better fantasy bet in games outside of Fenway Park.

In short, Josh Beckett’s fundamental ability to pitch seems not to have changed, at all, from 2007 to 2008. He had approximately the same amount of walks and same amount of strikeouts. He threw the same percentage of balls and induced the same percentage of swinging strikes. He threw his fastball at the same speed, and didn’t alter his repertoire noticeably.

Rather, the main changes were in areas that were out of Beckett’s control. His BABIP was higher in 08; his LOB% was lower in 08; he allowed a great proportion of his walks and extra-base hits in situations when runners were in scoring position. There’s no reason to think that these things are anything but random variation, given that ALL of Beckett’s underlying fundamentals didn’t change.

What does this mean for 2009? Well, assuming Beckett once again pitches as he did in 2007 and 2008, his ERA is very likely to decrease. The Red Sox will once again have an excellent defense, and it’s likely that Beckett’s BABIP will regress, after having been well-above-average during both 2007 and 2008. Beckett’s FIP during the last two years was 3.08 and 3.24, respectively; there’s no reason to think that Beckett cannot post an ERA under 3.50 – and perhaps even under 3.30 – in 2009.

Beckett may struggle in Fenway, and you might consider benching him against tougher opponents at home. However, his home ERA probably won’t be over 5 again, and he’s shown the ability to absolutely dominate outside of Fenway. His low ERA, coupled with over eight strikeouts per nine innings, less than two walks per nine, as well as one of the league’s best offenses and defenses, makes Josh Beckett a true fantasy ace.

On the surface, Manny Parra had a decent season for the Brewers in 2008. He posted an okay-but-below-average 4.39 ERA. He racked up 147 strikeouts in 165 innings, but only managed 10 wins and posted a 1.54 WHIP. However, beneath the surface we can see that Parra actually pitched pretty well, and is a good bet to improve in 2009.

First of all, Parra was hindered by some bad luck in 2008. His .337 BABIP was sixth highest among starting pitchers, and his 13.5% HR/FB was higher than league average as well. Both of these numbers figure to regress to the mean in 2009.

Furthermore, Parra showed an above-average ability to induce swinging strikes, an excellent sign for the young southpaw. Batters swung and missed at 9.3% of Parra’s pitches – above league average of 7.8% for starters.

He also induced ground balls on 51.6% of his balls in play, and limited fly balls to only 26.6% of his balls in play. This bodes quite well for him, as ground balls rarely become extra base hits and cannot become homers (plus, they can become double plays). Generally, lots of grounders + lots of strikeouts = lots of success.

Additionally, Parra has a track record of success in the minors. In 2007 he was excellent, accumulating 106 strikeouts and only 33 walks in 106 innings across double- and triple-A. Furthermore, he allowed only three homers in that time.

On the downside, Parra walked far too many hitters – 75, to be precise. He threw 39.3% of his pitches for balls – well above league average of 36.5%. However, given his track record, there is reason to believe that Parra will be able to improve upon this. While he was always somewhat wild in the minors, his career minor league walk rate is “only” 2.45 batters per nine. Furthermore, if Parra is able to throw fewer balls next year, it will also allow him to pitch deeper into games, allowing him more opportunities to strike batters out and pick up wins.

Even if Parra throws fewer balls next year, his relatively high walk total may prevent him from being much of an asset in WHIP. However, he will strike a lot of batters out, and the Brewers figure to give him a decent amount of run support, allowing him to pick up a fair amount of wins.

Parra is exactly the type of pitcher you should be targeting for 2009. He is a good bet for improvement for two reasons: he suffered from bad luck in 2008 – a high HR/FB and a very-high BABIP – so he figures to improve upon his ERA simply due to regression to the mean; and he is also a good bet to improve in his actual skill, due to his track record and age.

A combination of improvement and regression should lead to Manny Parra being a steal in 2009.

Fellow Rays pitcher James Shields may have the nickname “Big Game James,” but Matt Garza is more deserving of the moniker, having absolutely dominated the Red Sox in game seven of the ALCS. Garza’s impressive performance capped an amazing mid-season turnaround, and suggests that he could be on the brink of stardom.

Let’s go back to June 8. Catcher Dioner Navarro visited Garza on the mound during his start in Texas, and the two men began shouting at each other. The altercation continued in the dugout after Garza was removed. He didn’t pitch well that day, and he left the start with a 4.38. However, he had actually been a lot worse than his ERA suggested: in 61 innings to that point, he had an abysmal 34/25 K/BB ratio and had allowed eight homers. He had thrown 60.5% of his pitches for strikes and had gotten swinging strikes on 5.7% of his pitches.

But then something changed.

Notably, Garza saw sported psychologist Ken Ravizza after the game (and later credited him in an interview after game seven of the ALCS). And the results were hard to argue with.

Since June 8, Garza pitched 123 innings (not including the playoffs), and posted a 3.37 ERA – a full run lower than his previous ERA. But remember, Garza’s previous ERA had been unjustly low. Since June 7, though, Garza was legitimately excellent: he posted a 94/34 K/BB ratio while allowing 11 homers. He threw 64.4% of his pitches for strikes, and induced swinging strikes on 8.6% of his pitches. Furthermore, Garza didn’t benefit from a tremendous amount of luck: he allowed a .271 BABIP during this time (low, but remember: the Rays had one of the best defenses in the league), and he allowed 7.7% of his fly balls to become homers.

While his homer rate my rise somewhat (league average is somewhere around 11%), it’s not unreasonable to assume that Garza is likely to maintain his post-June 8 success in 2009. He proved he could handle the big stage at Fenway Park, and he proved he could pitch very well during the last three-and-a-half months of the regular season.

We shall see if he can pitch well over an entire season, but it’s not unreasonable to expect an ERA below 3.50, coupled with ~170 strikeouts and 15-20 wins next season. And, given just how good Garza’s stuff is (anyone who doesn’t realize how good his stuff is should go watch game seven again) – as well as the fact that the Rays should once again have an excellent defense and be one of the league’s best teams – it’s conceivable that Garza could develop further and become a true fantasy ace.

Matt Wieters had quite the start to his professional career.

The 5th overall pick of the 2007 draft began the season at high-A ball, where he destroyed poor souls on the mound to the tune of .345/.448/.576 with 15 homers in 69 games. He also walked nearly as many times (44) as he struck out (47).

Wieters then took his one-man show to double-A, where the demolition continued. Wieters actually hit better with Bowie, smacking opposing pitchers around at a .365/.460/.625 clip, and blasting 12 homers in 61 games. He continued his impressive plate discipline as well, actually managing more walks (38) than strikeouts (29).

Wieters’s season is eerily reminiscent of another young catching prodigy: Joe Mauer, in 2003. That year, Mauer began the season at high-A ball, where he hit .335/.395/.412. Mauer too was promoted to double-A at mid-season, where he hit .341/.400/.453. Mauer also walked as often as he struck out, an impressive feat for any minor league hitter. The two biggest differences are the facts that Wieters was 22 years old this year, while Mauer was only 20 back in 2003; and that Wieters displayed more power this year than Mauer did in 03.

Fantasy players know what happened with Mauer: he developed into a consistent threat to win a batting title – although his power remains questionable to this day. However, Mauer is a solid comparison for what to expect from Wieters. Wieters began his professional career at a later age than Mauer, but also put up even more impressive numbers than Mauer did. So far, Wieters appears to be Joe Mauer with power.

The question is: how much power? Expect Wieters to hit for a solid average right away, as he not only posted very high averages in the minors this year, but he also showed extremely impressive plate discipline and the ability to put the ball in play. However, I wouldn’t expect Wieters’s power to translate entirely to the majors in 2009. Although he did hit 27 homers (in only 130 games) this year, he hit the ball on the ground a little too often: only 35% of his balls in play were fly balls.

Wieters is still a candidate to hit 10-15 homers and perhaps even approach a .300 batting average (although .280 or so is more likely), making him a fine catcher in 2009. His long-term potential is immense, and he’s tremendously valuable in keeper leagues. He will likely get the call to the majors relatively early in the season (perhaps as soon as April), and he should make an impact from day one. While he’s a good bet to have more power than Joe Mauer, it’s unlikely that he’ll hit 20-25 homers in his first season.

I admit it: I have a thing for unexciting pitchers. And Aaron Laffey certainly fits the bill.

But I also think that finding pitchers very late in the draft (or for very little money) who have some value is the best ticket to fantasy success. Given the inherent unpredicability of pitching, you can often find decent pitchers very late in the draft (or for very little money), allowing you to build a fantastic offensive team by picking offense with many of your high-dollar, early and mid-round picks.

Thus, while Aaron Laffey probably shouldn’t be the ace of your staff, he’s likely to be more valuable than the money you have to spend to get him, or the round in which you can draft him.

Laffey has had a stellar minor league career, although he has gone unnoticed in scouting circles thanks to his, ahem, below-average velocity. Indeed, Laffey’s fastball sits around 87 MPH. However, Laffey has survived – indeed, thrived – thanks to his ability to induce ground balls. Starting in 2005, here are Laffey’s GB percentages in the minors: 67%, 62.5%, 62.2%, and 54.4%. Oh, and Laffey is also fairly stingy with free passes, having issued 2.6 walks per nine innings in his minor league career (although this is artificially inflated by a high walk total back in 2004 – Laffey’s control has since improved).

Laffey’s high ground ball total allows him to keep the ball in the park, thus making up for his lack of strikeouts. You, as a fantasy baseball player, care more about the strikeouts, but hear me out: Laffey may be worthwhile even without a lot Ks.

Laffey had a decent debut in the majors in 2007, posting a 4.56 ERA. However, his FIP was 3.73. He started out 2008 quite well, but tired as the season progressed. He ended up with a 4.23 ERA, but a 4.88 FIP. Most of this was due to the fact that his ground ball percentage was about 10% lower in 2008 than it had been during the rest of his career. This is most likely an outlier – Laffey showed the ability to get more than 60% of his balls in play on the ground throughout his entire career, including in the majors in 2007. If he can revert back to his extreme ground-balling ways, he should benefit from an infield defense that will include Asdrubal Cabrera and may be able to keep his ERA under 4.

Once again, I don’t mean to argue that Aaron Laffey is a particularly great fantasy pitcher. But I think he can post an above-average ERA and WHIP, while perhaps getting a decent amount of wins (if the Indians are as good as I expect them to be). That’s not an ace, but that is a guy who’d make an excellent addition in a deep league, and someone who is likely to be undervalued.

Jonathan Sanchez misses a LOT of bats.

Unfortunately, sometimes that’s because he throws too many balls. But he also induces a lot of strikeouts. And he’s primed to break out in 2009.

Sanchez had an okay year in 2008, posting a 5.01 ERA. He managed 157 strikeouts in only 158 innings, although this came with 75 walks and 14 homers as well.

However, Sanchez’s ERA is misleading: his 08 campaign was actually pretty good, and, more importantly, there are several signs that his 09 could be a lot better.

First of all, Sanchez was somewhat unlucky to post an ERA over 5 in 2008. His FIP was an impressive 3.85, and his tRA was 4.23 (league average is 4.77). Part of the problem was his BABIP: Sanchez allowed an inordinately high .327 BABIP this season. Additionally, Sanchez gave up an extremely high amount of hits in situations in which they scored the most runs: with runners at first and third, batters were 6-for-15; with runners at second and third, batters were 6-for-13; and with the bases loaded batters were 3-for-10 (with three walks). In those three situations, batters hit a combined .395, leading to an inordinately high number of runners scoring.

Furthermore, of the 14 homers that Sanchez allowed, only six were solo shots – despite the fact that 55% of at bats against Sanchez came with no one on base.

In other words, Sanchez gave up far more hits and homers with runners on base than he “should” have, leading to a disproportionately high number of runners who reached base coming around to score. Sure enough, his 67.5% LOB% provides further evidence of this.

On the bright side, Sanchez struck out almost a batter per inning over 158 innings – not an easy feat. Despite not throwing terribly hard (his fastball averaged 91 MPH), he showed a remarkable ability to induce swings-and-misses – in fact, batters swung and missed at 10.9% of his Sanchez’s pitches, the 9th highest total in baseball. Pitchers who induced higher rates of swings-and-misses were a who’s who of major league baseball’s best pitchers: CC Sabathia, Scott Kazmir, Ryan Dempster, Johan Santana, Cole Hamels, Edinson Volquez, and John Danks. That’s some elite company.

Certainly, Sanchez threw too many balls this year (38.6%, to be exact – league average is 36.5%), and walked too many – 4.27 per nine innings. However, starting pitchers who can get as many swings-and-misses – and, therefore, strikeouts – as Sanchez are few and far between. Sanchez’s ERA was artificially inflated by his inability to “stop the bleeding” this year – a fact that is probably borne from a combination of inexperience and bad luck. Therefore, it’s likely that Sanchez will fare better in “clutch” situations next season, thus lowering his ERA, perhaps considerably. He will almost certainly rack up a lot of strikeouts. And, if he can cut down on his walks – certainly possible – he could lower his ERA even further. However, even if Sanchez walks too many, he’ll more than make up for it with a ton of strikeouts and a respectable ERA.

*Thanks to Stat Corner for providing some of the statistics – specifically, swinging strike % and ball %.