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Waiver Wire: April 22nd

Here are four players with low ownership rates that could give your team a little boost…

Jaime Garcia | SP | Cardinals (25% owned)

St. Louis has allowed the second fewest runs in the league thanks in large part to their fifth starter, who through two starts has held opponents to just five hits and five walks in 13 innings. Of course, Garcia won’t be able to maintain his .158 BABIP all season, and his 6.92 K/9 isn’t eye-popping, but he has some favorable matchups coming up. You still have time to grab him for tomorrow’s start at the Giants, and after that he takes on the Braves (.310 team wOBA) at home. There’s always the potential for some Dave Duncan magic as well.

Doug Fister | SP | Mariners (10%)

Fister has stepped right in for the injured Cliff Lee and has pitched about as well as Seattle could have hoped. Like Garcia, he’s enjoying the benefits of an absurdly low BABIP (.212), though his might be slightly more sustainable because he’s playing in front of he mother of all defenses. At some point it’ll all come crashing down for Fister, who’s posted a 1.42 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP through his first three starts, but there’s isn’t a damn thing wrong with enjoying the hot start while it lasts. His next start comes at the White Sox this weekend.

Jeff Keppinger | 2B, 3B, SS | Astros (5%)

I know, I know. The Astros’ offense is terrible, but Keppinger is the only guy in the lineup pulling his weight. He’s been playing every day at mostly second base, but fantasy owners will enjoy the multi-position eligibility he acquired last season. Don’t expect him to help your counting stats at all, because apparently no one else in Houston feels like getting on base or driving a run in, but his .317 AVG (.333 BABIP) will help almost every fantasy team.

Mike Lowell | 3B | Red Sox (21%)

As the David Ortiz Era comes to a painful end, Lowell has found his name in the starting lineup in three of the last seven games. He even pinch hit for Big Papi on Tuesday night. Lowell has hit well in his limited action (.375, 1 HR, SSS obviously), and he could be in line for even more starts since the Sox are scheduled to face four lefthanded starters in their next seven games. It might be a little too late to pick him up for tonight’s matchup against C.J. Wilson, though. Fourteen of Boston’s next 20 games are at home, and Lowell has a .386 career wOBA at Fenway.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


Big Z moved to the bullpen

After four dreadful starts, Cubs’ manager Lou Piniella announced today that the team is moving Opening Day starter Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen to help out the struggling relief corps. Ted Lilly is returning from the disabled list to assume the vacated rotation spot, and the Chicago brass must feel this is the best way to improve the team’s 6.15 relief ERA. He’ll be available for the first time on Friday.

Zambrano posted a 7.45 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP in his four starts (19.1 IP), but the peripherals aren’t awful. His strikeout rate (12.10 K/9) is through the roof, and even though that’s destined to regress, he should be able to top his 7.74 career K/9 while working in relief. His walk rate is a bit higher than usual at 4.66 BB/9, but he’s allowed an unfathomable amount of homeruns – more than one for every five balls hit in the air, nearly triple his 7.4% HR/FB from 2008-2009.

Closer Carlos Marmol has been ridiculously good in limited action, so don’t expect Zambrano to wrestle the job from him anytime soon. Very few setup men are worth carrying in a standard 5×5, 12-team mixed league, but if Big Z’s homerun rate returns to normal and he maintains a high strikeout rate, he’s definitely worth a roster spot as you wait for his inevitable return to the rotation. And believe me, it’ll happen at some point. Carlos Silva and Tom Gorzelanny are holding down starting jobs, and Zambrano is making close to $18M this year. There’s no way this move is permanent.

For Zambrano owners, there’s nothing more you can do than grind your teeth and wait out this temporary setback. He’ll gain RP eligibility soon enough, so that added roster flexibility is a nice little fringe benefit. If you don’t own Zambrano, now’s a great time to go out and try to buy low on him in a trade. The potential for high quality production in the second half is well worth the risk.


Mathis hits the DL

Angels’ catcher Jeff Mathis will miss the next six to eight weeks with a broken wrist, bringing joy to all of you Mike Napoli owners out there. I wrote about Mike Scioscia’s inexplicable and continued loyalty to Mathis last week, advising you to just hold tight to Napoli and wait for a switch to be made or an injury to occur. Well, the injury has occurred.

Napoli’s only competition for playing time now is Bobby Wilson, who was only on the roster as the third catcher because he’s out of the options and the team doesn’t want to lose him to waivers. Hard to blame them. The 27-year-old Wilson has appeared in one game and has gotten just one plate appearance this year, though he has a reputation of being a solid defensive catcher. Never underestimate the power of Nichols’ Law, so don’t be surprised that the less Wilson hits, the more he plays because of his defense.

For you Napoli owners, you’ve finally got a chance to enjoy into some of that power. He started behind the dish tonight, but he’s batting ninth, so the RBI opportunities might be a little scarce at the outset. A homerun is a homerun though, and homeruns from catchers in fantasy is always a boost. Napoli is still available in 45% of Yahoo! leagues, so run out and grab him if you need an upgrade behind the plate.


Ike Arrives

It was inevitable. After just two weeks, the Mets summoned hot shot prospect Ike Davis from the minors to replace Mike Jacobs, the last big power hitting prospect produced by their farm system. Davis had a fantastic big league debut, going 2-for-4 with a run driven in against the Cubbies last night, and the tabloids already have him pegged as the future of the franchise. That’s all well and good, but what does Davis’ arrival mean for fantasy owners?

Supposedly, Davis will play every day at least until the incumbent Daniel Murphy returns, which is good news. There’s no point in calling up your best prospect in April and playing him only sparingly (apparently they haven’t realized that with Jenrry Mejia yet). Davis mashed in the minors, with a .226 ISO and an 11.7 BB% between two levels last year, and he started off this season with a .364/.500/.636 performance in 42 Triple-A plate appearances.

His bane is lefty pitchers, and has been since his days at Arizona State (seriously, who had him beating college teammate and fellow 2008 first rounder Brett Wallace to majors?). Davis hit .267 (.369 BABIP) with a .110 ISO against southpaws in the minors, compared to .297 (.343 BABIP) with a .203 ISO vs. righties, though 191 and 478 at-bats aren’t the largest of sample sizes. He did hang in well to single off Sean Marshall last night, who fed him three curveballs and a slider.

CHONE forecasts a .231 batting average with 11 homers and 39 RBI for Davis in 114 games this year, while PECOTA’s 50th-percentile pegs him for almost the same: .231-11-41. That puts him in Casey Kotchman/Lyle Overbay territory, though Davis certainly offers the potential for more. My hunch is that he’s perform very well his first time through the league, but will start to come back down to earth once the book gets out. At that point he’d be a sell high candidate.

Davis was added to the player pool in Yahoo! leagues this morning, and chances are the Mets’ fan in your league already grabbed him. If not, he’s a worthy add for the bench if your first basemen are underperforming, or if you’re in an NL-only or deep mixed league. Just make sure you sit him against southpaws.


Starting Pitchers: April 19th

Cliff Lee felt no pain while throwing a 51-pitch simulated game on Friday, and the plan is for him to throw another simulated game this week before heading out on a minor league rehab assignment. The goal is to have the Mariners’ co-ace back on a big league mound by May 1st or 2nd.

Brandon Webb, however, isn’t so lucky. The Diamondbacks transferred him to the 60-day DL over the weekend, meaning the earliest he could possibly come back is May 25th. Whether or not he’ll be ready to pitch on that date is another story all together.

Here’s a few notes on some other starting rotation situations from around the league…

Kris Benson: Going from even a less effective version of Webb to Benson is a significant hit, and that’s essentially what the D-Backs have done. Don’t be fooled by Benson’s six inning, two run outing against the Padres in Petco over the weekend, he has negative fantasy value. Once he faces a better lineup in a more hitter friendly park, the blush will be off the rose.

Scott Kazmir: The greatest pitcher in Tampa Bay franchise history returned to the mound last week, putting 11 men on base and allowing six runs to score against the so good it’s scary Yankee offense. He’s unlikely to turn back into the 3.40-ish FIP, 10+ K/9 fantasy stud he was from 2006-2007, but Kazmir definitely remains a fantasy asset. He misses enough bats to produce good strikeout numbers, and if he stays healthy he’s probably looking at ten or so starts against the A’s and Mariners, hardly offensive powerhouses. With normal regression of last year’s 67.5% strand rate, his ERA should drop to the low-to-mid fours. He’s still available in 39% of Yahoo! leagues.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: Dice-K’s rehab stint has gone well so far, as he’s allowed just six baserunners (five hits, one walk) in 11 innings. The strikeouts are down (just five), but right now we don’t have any reason to suspect he’ll drop off from his established 8.53 K/9 rate in the bigs. The important thing is that he appears to be healthy. He still has another minor league start to go, but the Red Sox haven’t announced their plans for the rotation yet. The prevailing thought is that they’ll use a six-man rotation for at least one turn before giving Clay Buchholz or (more likely) Tim Wakefield the boot to the bullpen.

Daniel McCutchen: The Pirates put Ross Ohlendorf on the disabled list over the weekend with back spasms, and replaced him in the rotation with McCutchen, who was on their Opening Day roster. He’s been dreadful in two starts (12 runs, 16 baserunners, just three strikeouts in 7.1 IP), but he has a dynamite minor league track record so a return to some semblance of normalcy is expected. There’s no need to run out and grab him now, but keep an eye on his progression. There’s a chance for a low-four ERA with decent WHIP and strikeout numbers here.


Are Huff and Talbot Rosterable?

The Indians pitching staff has made quite a bit of noise in the last few days, as David Huff and Mitch Talbot became the pitchers to throw consecutive complete games for the club since Chad Ogea and Charles Nagy did it way back in September of 1996. Sure enough, the day after Huff’s two run, two hour gem someone had grabbed him out of the free agent pool in my league, but is he worth a roster spot? What about Talbot?

The 25-year-old Huff was the 39th overall pick in the 2006 draft out of UCLA, and he proceeded to burn right through the minors, posting FIP’s near 3.00 in 2007 and 2008. He split last season between Triple-A and the big leagues, putting up a 5.61 ERA (4.69 FIP) with a weak 4.56 K/9 in 23 starts for the Tribe. After demonstrating the ability to limit free passes in the minors, that skill has translated to the majors (for the time being).

In a standard 12-team league, Huff’s not worth a second thought. But if you’re in an AL-only or particularly deep mixed league, just keep an eye out on him in case his strikeout rate starts to climb. He’s not going to be a guy that will anchor a fantasy pitching staff, but he could be a little bit better than your typical 6th or 7th fantasy starter. He’s owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues.

Talbot, on the other hand, hasn’t demonstrated the ability to contribute to a fantasy club in any way. He has more walks than strikeouts in his two starts, but even in Triple-A his K/9 is an underwhelming 7.3. CHONE projects a 5.25 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP this season, which is about what you should expect. Talbot is what he is, and that’s the 5th starter on a team not quite ready to contend. His complete game last night was a fine effort, but he’s not worth carrying on any fantasy team.

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Quick Note: The Padres are starting lefty Wade LeBlanc at home against the Diamondbacks in place of the injured Chris Young tomorrow. If your team is like mine and you’re way behind in ERA and WHIP this week, LeBlanc is a nice little pickup to try and maximize your strikeouts. He struck out 15 in 10 Triple-A innings earlier this year, and the D-Backs can swing and miss with the best of ’em.


Waiver Wire: April 15th

Here are four players with low ownership rates that could provide some short-term help, and maybe even long-term potential…

Jim Johnson | RP | Orioles (14% owned)

Saves are always a hot commodity on the waiver wire, so when the Baltimore faithful booed Mike Gonzalez onto the disabled list with a shoulder strain, it opened the ninth inning door for the hard-throwing Johnson. He nailed down eight saves in 11 opportunities following the trade of George Sherrill last year, but those three blown saves all came in one run games. They weren’t exactly epic meltdowns. Johnson doesn’t provide the strikeouts of a typical late-game reliever (5.58 K/9 career), but waiver wire saves are waiver wire saves.

Nick Johnson | 1B | Yankees (19%)

The Yankees’ lineup is a beautiful thing. They’ve scored the second most runs in the league in the early going (just three behind the Tigers, who’ve played one more game), and that’s with Mark Teixeira’s .211 wOBA in the middle of the lineup. Johnson has reached base in every game they’ve played, and has scored the second more runs on the team despite not being fleet of foot. If you’re in an AL-only or a deep mixed league, Johnson’s a nice complementary piece for your bench, especially once Teixeira starts hitting and the lineup really starts to click. If your league counts OBP, then it goes without saying that he’s a high priority pickup.

Will Venable | OF | Padres (8%)

Unless your name is Adrian Gonzalez, fantasy baseballers aren’t kind to hitters who spend half their time in Petco Park. Venable has come out of the gate strong, knocking a pair of homers (one in Arizona, one in Petco) and driving in seven runs for one of the game’s least inspiring offenses. His average is a bit of an eyesore at .267 (.273 BABIP) and he didn’t draw his first walk until last night, so don’t expect much of a boost with the rate stats. If you can ride his hot start for a week while dealing with an injured player (I’m looking at you, Jayson Werth), it’s worth the pick up.

Colby Lewis | SP | Rangers (7%)

I feel bad stealing Carson’s thunder, but I figured it was time for the roto folks to appreciate Mr. Lewis. In case you haven’t heard, Lewis struck out ten Indians last night, and his ERA after two starts sits at a nifty 2.19. His trademark control must be suffering from some jet lag (8 BB already, just 19 all of last year in Japan), but that should get better. His next start is scheduled to come against the Red Sox in Boston, which is probably a good time to bench him, but after that he’s looking at starts vs. Detroit, vs. Chicago, in Seattle, in Oakland, and then again at home against the A’s. If that’s not a cushy schedule, I don’t know what is.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


What to do with Mike Napoli?

Coming into the season, most considered Angels’ backstop Mike Napoli to be one of the dozen best fantasy catchers in the game, and why wouldn’t they? He had a .362 wOBA with 20 homers and 56 RBI in 432 plate appearances last season, a year after going .399-20-49 in 264 PA in 2008. CHONE forecast another 19 homers in 2010, which is fantasy gold from a catcher.

And yet, Mike Scioscia loves him some Jeff Mathis. Just loves him. Mathis has started seven of the team’s nine games (including today), relegating Napoli to backup/pinch-hitting duty. Even worse, Mathis is fueling Scioscia’s mancrush by hitting .350/.364/.500 with a .368 wOBA in the early going. However, expecting that to last is just plain foolish. Mathis has a .266 career wOBA in close to 900 plate appearances, and his slugging percentage is his 31 points lower than Napoli’s on-base percentage. I’m well aware that Mathis has a good defensive rep with Napoli has quite the opposite, but sheesh.

Napoli is owned in 67% of Yahoo! leagues, and 100% of his owners are frustrated by his lack of playing time. There is some hope though. The Halos are just 2-6 with 29 runs scored, and when teams start to lose games in bunches and struggle to score runs, one of the first things the manager will do is mix up the lineup. With his never-ending contract and status as The Greatest Manager Who Ever Lived™, Scioscia should know that swapping Mathis with Napoli is the easiest move to make if he wants his team to score more runs. Plus there’s always the possibility of an injury, given the nature of the position.

Until that happens, the fantasy owners suffer. The possibility of 20 jacks from a catcher is too good to let go this early in the season, so dropping him shouldn’t even be a consideration. Hold on to Napoli for the time being and just ride out the storm. Try to grab Chris Snyder (11% owned) or heck, even Mathis and his somewhat hot start (4%) to hold you over. Napoli and his bat will find their way into the lineup eventually, at some point Scioscia won’t have much of a choice.


Promotion Watch: Carlos Santana

The first few weeks of April are usually pretty quiet for the game’s best prospects, but once May rolls around, teams will begin to call them up after effectively pushing the player’s free agency and arbitration clock back a year. It’s a sound strategy, because usually whatever is sacrificed during those first few weeks of the season (a win? maybe two at most?) is more than recouped in the extra couple of months of team control.

Ryan Braun surfaced in May of 2007 and became not just one of the best hitters in the league, but a savior for many fantasy owners. Evan Longoria did the same in 2008 and last year it was Andrew McCutchen. Finding that one big time prospect who goes from the bush leagues to fantasy megastar is never an easy task, but that’s what we’re here for.

Cleveland’s current catching situation features the tag team of Lou Marson and Mike Redmond, who’ve combined to reach base just four times in 27 plate appearances so far this season. At some point soon the Indians will summon uber-prospect Carlos Santana from Triple-A, who they comically acquired from the Dodgers for Casey Blake and whatever was left on his contract. Our own Marc Hulet ranked him as the seventh best prospect in the game, and the second best catching prospect overall.

In this young season, Santana has gone all Albert Pujols on the Triple-A International League. His triple-slash line sit at .450/.500/1.150, a year after posting a .418 wOBA in Double-A. Six of his nine hits have gone for extra bases (four homers, two doubles), and he’s come around to score seven times in five games. Santana has more walks (181) than strikeouts (170) since 2008, which backs up his reputation as having supreme knowledge of the strike zone. The defensive ability is there as well, so a position switch is not coming anytime soon.

The catching situation in fantasyland is pretty grim beyond the top six or eight players, but Santana could jump right into that mix once he’s promoted. Cleveland has to keep him in the minors roughly two weeks to push free agency back by a year, but about two months to push arbitration back. Count on a mid-to-late May call up.

Santana sports the power, the bat control, and the discipline to be an impact fantasy player once the Indians calls him up, and he’s clearly the best catcher in their organization at the moment. The fact that he plays such a scarce position makes him even more attractive to fantasy owners. If you’re willing to live with a dead spot on your bench for the next month or so, then by all means grab Santana, who’s owned in just 3% of Yahoo! leagues. If not, then make sure you keep an eye on Cleveland’s transactions, because chances are he’ll be an upgrade over your current catching situation or a fantastic piece of trade bait.


Starting Pitchers: April 12th

The season is just a week old, so most starters haven’t gotten a chance to pitch their way out of a job or get hurt yet. Let’s check in on the status of some rotation spots around the league.

Jeff Niemann. The 6-foot-9 Rays’ hurler took a line drive off his pitching shoulder last week, but is on track to make his next start on Tuesday at the Orioles. Baltimore has a .308 wOBA as a team through their first six games, but that’s probably not going to last. I’d keep Niemann on the bench until we’re sure the shoulder isn’t an issue.

Gil Meche. The Royals’ highest paid player returned from some spring shoulder issues to predictably get his brains beat in by the Red Sox on Sunday. Gilgameche hasn’t been an effective pitcher since last June and is owned in just 2% of Yahoo! leagues, so he’s not worth your time. Resist the temptation of his 2007-2008 success.

Chris Young. San Diego’s highest paid player was placed on the DL with shoulder tightness yesterday after having surgery on the joint last year. The team has yet to announce his replacement, but the early favorite is fellow shoulder injury All Star Tim Stauffer, who had a good spring and has been strong in two long relief outings (5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K). The 27-year-old is owned in exactly 0% of Yahoo! leagues, but if you’re in an NL-only or deep mixed league, the Petco factor might make him worth a pick up

The Nationals have swapped Garrett Mock for Livan Hernandez, but that move shouldn’t have any fantasy impact for any league anywhere. Maybe Livan is worth a shot if your league counts bulk innings and bats not missed, but otherwise don’t bother.

One starter yet to make an appearance this year is Phil Hughes of the Yankees, but he’s scheduled to get to call on Thursday to start at home against against the Angels. You’ll probably want to sit him and his 43.2% career FB% in that game, but his next start would come in Oakland, which is always a favorable matchup from a stadium and a quality of lineup faced perspective. Hughes is owned in 65% of Yahoo! leagues, and if he’s still available in yours, gobble him up. That goes double if you’re in an AL-only or deep mixed league. The Yankees are going to score a ton of runs for the 23-year-old, and their bullpen is good enough to preserve a lead for four innings. Just make sure you pick your spots with him until he gets in a groove.