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Royals unleash the Kila Monster

It probably came a year or two too late, but the Royals have finally called up Kila Ka’aihue, as he takes the place of the injured Rick Ankiel. Better late than never, I guess. The 26-year-old first baseman turned into a bit of a cult hero in recent years, thanks to his ability to completely annihilate minor league pitching while not getting anything more than a cup of coffee in the show.

After posting an ungodly .463 wOBA with 37 homers in 515 plate appearances split between Double and Triple-A in 2008, the Kila Monster dropped down to “just” a .368 wOBA and 17 homers in Triple-A last year. He lost 144 points off his ISO, but his BB% and K% went largely unchanged, as did his batted ball rates according to minorleaguesplits.com. For whatever reason, the power just took a bit of a vacation.

Thankfully, it’s returned this year. Ka’aihue is hitting .304/.466/.620 (.455 wOBA) with seven dingers in 23 Triple-A games (yes, it’s obviously a small sample), and he continues to walk more than he strikes out (230 BB, 169 K dating back to ’08). I’m a sucker for guys that take ball four more often than strike three, but that bias isn’t why I’m recommending Ka’aihue for your fantasy team.

He doesn’t have the big name recognition of say, Ike Davis, but the lefty swinging Royal doesn’t have the massive platoon split either (.821 OPS vs. LHP in the minors, .881 vs. RHP). He might not have the defensive value and long-term outlook of Justin Smoak, but he’s a bit older and his power is more present than projected. Ka’aihue is strictly a 1B, so something’s going to have to give with Billy Butler and Jose Guillen if he’s to get regular playing time. My guess is that Butler stays at first, Guillen goes to the outfield while Ankiel’s injured, and Kila DH’s.

He’s available in basically all Yahoo! leagues (except mine! bwahaha), and if you’re looking for a little boost from the 1B or UTIL spots, here’s your guy. That goes double if you’re in a deep mixed or AL-only league. If you hurry, you should be able to grab him in time for Wednesday’s game.


Promotion Watch: Scheppers & Arrieta

Here’s two young righties that could be coming to a bullpen near you…

Tanner Scheppers | Rangers

A former second and supplemental first round pick, Texas hasn’t been shy about aggressively promoting the hard-throwing Scheppers since he signed for $1.25M. Baseball America describes him as having “an electric fastball that ranges from 93-99” and a “plus 82-84 mph curveball that could become plus-plus as he refines his command.” The kid clearly has the goods, but after dealing with a stress fracture and what was described as “significant wear and tear” in his throwing shoulder two years ago, it’s possible the team is looking to extract as much value from Scheppers as possible before he breaks down again.

Working strictly in relief, the 23-year-old righty made a strong pro debut in the Arizona Fall League last year, but has just gone off on Double-A hitters this year. In 11 innings he allowed just three hits (one of which was a solo homer) and struck out 19. He’s walked zero, putting his FIP in the sub-1.00 range. The Rangers bumped Scheppers up to Triple-A over the weekend, and a big league relief job is clearly within reach with Texas on top of a winnable division. He might not steal any saves from Neftali Feliz and/or Frank Francisco, at least not at first, but the strikeout and ERA potential should make him worth a spot even in a standard 5×5 league. Once Scheppers reaches the show, he’s a must-get if your league counts holds.

Jake Arrieta | Orioles

The Orioles’ bullpen is in a perpetual state of disarray this days, and there has been some talk of bringing up the 24-year-old Arrieta to help shore things up. While he doesn’t have the same blow-you-away stuff as Scheppers (92-94 mph fastball, slider, change, occasional curve according to Baseball America), Marc projected him as a number three starter down the road. Any move to the bullpen would surely be temporary.

Arrieta has held batters to a .171 batting average in Triple-A, with a 1.93 K/BB and a 2.05 GB/FB in 31 innings this year, good for a FIP just south of 2.00. Because he’s expected to join Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman in their rotation for years to come, there’s no guarantee that Baltimore will promote Arrieta to work in relief, especially when they’re going nowhere fast. If they do though, keep an on him because save opportunities could come his way rather quickly.


Joba in line for some save opportunities

Even though the Yankees had a three run lead in the 9th inning on Monday night, the familiar chords of Enter Sandman did not blare from the loud speakers in the Bronx. Much to everyone’s surprise, Mariano Rivera was unavailable because of what’s being described as a “twinge in his flank,” which in english means tightness in his side. He actually wasn’t available over the weekend either, but an opportunity for his services never arose.

It’s not considered a serious injury, and the team has indicated that they expect him to need just another day or two of rest. Just like tonight, Rivera’s shoes will be filled by starter turned reliever turned starter turned reliever turned starter again and then finally a reliever (we think) Joba Chamberlain. He’s not the same guy that burst onto the scene in 2007 anymore, but he still offers strikeouts (8.71 K/9) and decent ERA (3.18) and WHIP (1.24) totals. The Yankees have two more games left with Orioles on Tuesday and Wednesday, so there’s a pretty good chance a save opportunity will comes his way in the next two days.

It’s not a long-term pick up, but Joba will give you a chance to vulture a save or two this week, which is always appreciated. He’s owned in just 28% of Yahoo! leagues, so if you run out and grab him now you might be able to have him available for tomorrow night.


Starting Pitchers: May 3rd

Here’s the latest on some young pitchers serving as injury replacements around the league…

Trevor Cahill & Vin Mazzaro | Athletics

I mentioned Brett Anderson’s elbow issue last week, but it turned out to be a little worse than expected; he’s going to miss as much as the next six weeks with a forearm injury. If that wasn’t bad enough, the A’s lost Justin Duchscherer on Thursday when he left his start with pain in his twice-surgically repaired hip. They’ve been replaced in the rotation by Cahill and (unofficially) Mazzaro, both of whom saw plenty of time with the big league team last year.

Cahill threw 178.2 IP of 4.92 xFIP ball with just a 4.53 K/9 last year, when he jumped from Double-A to the show. Mazzaro approximately replicated that performance (5.10 xFIP, 5.81 K/9) in a much smaller sample (91.1 IP), though he had some Triple-A time under his belt. Both have some nice long-term potential, but neither offers much in the world of fantasy baseball at the moment. Oakland’s schedule is a little tough over the next few weeks (Rangers twice, Rays, Angels), so don’t run out to grab either. Avoid the temptations of future potential, they’re non-rosterable at this point.

Jhoulys Chacin & Esmil Rogers | Rockies

With Jorge de la Rosa and Jason Hammel landing on the disabled list, the Rockies turned to two of the best young arms their farm system has to offer. Chacin, who posted a 4.97 xFIP in limited action last year, one hit the Giants over seven innings yesterday while Rogers allowed five runs through four the night before. The former features a four-pitch mix and a knockout changeup that helps him neutralizes batters of the opposite hand while the latter struggles with his offspeed offerings at times and might end up in the bullpen long-term.

Colorado’s upcoming schedule includes dates at the Padres and at the Dodgers, so if nothing else they’re looking at a favorable matchup the next turn through the rotation. I’d definitely go Chacin over Rogers though, he’s got a slightly better track record of missing bats and generating ground balls at the higher levels. He’s owned in less than 5% of Yahoo! leagues, so he should be there for the taking.

John Ely | Dodgers

Acquired in the Juan Pierre deal (how’s that one working out?), Ely took the spot of the injured Vicente Padilla, and appears to have a firm grasp on it for the foreseeable future. In his relatively short minor league career (2007 draftee), he’s exhibited solid control of the strike zone (7.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9) and an ability to generate plenty of grounders (50.1% GB). Ely’s not a big stuff guy, but those skills generally portend good things. His next start will be against the Brewers on Thursday, then after that you’re looking at dates with the Diamondbacks and Padres.

In a standard 12-team league, there’s no reason to pay any attention to Ely. If you’re in a particularly deep league and are in a position to sacrifice some ERA and WHIP in exchange for a win near the end of the week, you could take a worse gamble.

Quick Notes

Javier Vazquez has been absolutely dreadful for the Yankees (9.78 ERA, 5.57 xFIP), but don’t expect him to lose his rotation spot anytime soon. Chances are he’ll have his next start skipped since it lands on an off day, and you should definitely keep him glued to the bench until he strings two or three good starts together. The potential for strikeouts and wins (hat tip: Yankee offense) is still there. Rick Porcello hasn’t been Vazquez bad, but he’s been pretty awful as well (8.03 ERA, 4.25 xFIP). Despite rumors of a minor league “get yourself straight” assignment, the Tigers are going to stick with him and hope he rights the ship. If you’re a savvy negotiator, now’s a great time to swoop in and try to buy low on Javy and/or Porcello, especially if the former is owned by a frustrated Yankee fan.


Who Might Replace Brian Wilson?

I wasn’t the only one surprised to see Sergio Romo trot out of the Giants’ bullpen to start the ninth inning with a three run lead last night, some of the beat writers on Twitter were wondering what happened to closer to Brian Wilson as well. Romo recorded two quick outs before giving up a double to Melvin Mora, then was replaced by Jeremy Affeldt who got the lefty swinging Seth Smith to ground out to end the game and earn the save.

After the game we found out that Wilson is dealing with a groin strain, but like most pro athletes he doesn’t think it’s that big of a deal. His prognosis is still uncertain, but fantasy owners have to prepare for his time away. Romo and Affeldt are the obvious candidates to fill in, so let’s compare…

Romo: 1.54 ERA, 2.85 xFIP, 3.64 career xFIP, 1.70 gmLI
Affeldt: 3.00 ERA, 5.00 xFIP, 4.30 career xFIP, 1.75 gmLI

Just looking at those numbers, it’s clear Romo deserves to fill in for Wilson for however long that may be. Of course, common sense doesn’t always win out, and Affeldt has a distinct advantage in the Proven Veteran™ and bigger salary categories. Those aren’t the best things to base decisions off of, but we have to acknowledge that it happens.

Of course, Romo would have had the save last night if not for the double by Mora, but Bruce Bochy went right to Affeldt to face the lefty. Because of that, I’m tempted to say that Bochy will just roll with the matchups for now. In deeper leagues I would grab Romo because he’ll do more for your WHIP and K categories, and if it is going to be a matchup situation, the saves are going to completely unpredictable anyway.


Waiver Wire: April 29th

Going to change it up a little bit today and give you one two rolls of the dice and one no-brainer…

John Jaso | C | Rays (1% owned)

Unless you were able to go out an nab a Joe Mauer or a Victor Martinez, I’m a big believer in getting whatever production you can out of the catcher’s spot even if it means picking up a new guy every few days and just riding the hot hand while it lasts. Jaso was recalled after Kelly Shoppach hit the disabled list, and he’s started five of the team’s last six games (with a hat tip to Dioner Navarro’s two game suspension). During that time, he’s hit .412/.522/.647 with eight frickin’ runs batted in, zooming him past guys like Martinez, Matt Wieters, Geovany Soto, and Russell Martin on the leaderboard. It’s obviously an unsustainable pace and the RBI’s are just a function of opportunity, but if you’ve got a two catcher setup, or are in an AL-only or deep mixed league and weren’t able to land one of the big three, you could do a lot worse than grabbing Jaso and enjoying his hot streak, even if it only lasts into the weekend. Every little bit helps.

Jonathon Niese | SP | Mets (4%)

Okay, I’m going to admit that this one is nothing more than an ever so slightly educated hunch, but I like Niese’s next matchup against the Phillies. First of all, the opposing starter in Kyle Kendrick, who is certifiably awful and increases the chances of a Mets win. Secondly, even though Chase Utley has no platoon split (seriously, dude’s got a .386 wOBA vs. LHP and a .387 wOBA vs. RHP in his career), Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez sure do, and both are susceptible to breaking balls just like Niese’s big ol’ Uncle Charlie. That’s half the meat in the middle of Philadelphia’s lineup right there (though Ibanez sitting in favor of Ben Francisco is a possibility), and don’t discount the magic winning powers of Ike Davis (kidding … or am I?). Like I said, it’s just a hunch, but who doesn’t enjoy disregarding common sense every once in a while? You have just enough time to grab Niese for tomorrow night’s start, if you’re willing to roll the dice of course.

Colby Rasmus | OF | Cardinals (76%)

How in the world is this guy still available in one out of every four leagues? Rasmus leads the National League in OBP (.459) and is second in ISO (.424), giving him the second highest wOBA in baseball (.493). His six homeruns are good for the second most among all outfielders, and his RBI total should start to climb once Matt Holliday decides it’s probably best for the team if he gets on base more than 32.6% of the time. I suspect that if you’re reading this site, you’re well aware of Rasmus’ exploits and he’s either on your team or is already owned in your league, but damn, one out of four? Really?

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


Iannetta’s demotion boosts Olivo’s value

After posting a .368 wOBA with 34 homers over the last two season, Rockies’ catcher Chris Iannetta finally appeared to be free from the shackles of Yorvit Torrealba and on his way to a full-time starting job in 2009. He was a top 15 fantasy catcher coming into the season, but things have hardly gone according to plan.

Iannetta woke up this morning with a .243 wOBA with more strikeouts (11) than times on base (8), and his playing time greatly reduced. The Rockies’ are close to putting him out of his April misery, as indications are that the team is ready to send him back to the minors. That means their catching job belongs to none other than Miguel Olivo .

Olivo has started seven of Colorado’s last ten games, and he’s quietly leading all big league backstops with five homers. The guy has yet to meet a pitch he didn’t like, and he’s very much a known quantity at this point; if given 400 or more plate appearances, you’ll get about 15 long balls, 50 RBI, and a terrifyingly bad OBP. Thankfully, in standard 5×5 leagues, that last part isn’t a concern. Coors Field still boosted homers by a little more than 8% last season, so there’s another plus.

Olivo is still available in 49% of Yahoo! leagues at the moment, and is worth the pickup if you’re in a two catcher setup, or are dealing with some injuries. His .311 AVG (.375 BABIP) isn’t going to last obviously, but you can enjoy it while it does. The HR and RBI are where it’s really at with Olivo.


Promotion Watch: Mike Stanton

With Jason Heyward eating medium leverage situations for breakfast in the big leagues, and Jesus Montero still trying to find his way as a 20-year-old in Triple, the Marlins’ Mike Stanton has grabbed the crown as the “best hitter in the minor leagues” and run away with it. The 20-year-old outfielder smacked three homeruns yesterday afternoon, giving him five within the last 30 hours or so. His ISO stands at .462 this morning, and his walk rate has risen up to match his usually high strikeout rate in the early going. Obviously, small sample size warnings apply.

After a 341 plate appearance cameo with Florida’s Double-A affiliate last year (.344 wOBA), they sent him back there this year, but if he keeps doing what he’s doing now (.495 wOBA by my calculation), it’s won’t be long before they bump him up to Triple-A. Once that happens, it’s only a matter of time before he surfaces with the big league team.

Chris Coghlan has yet to find the BABIP magic he had during his Rookie of the Year campaign last season, and his wOBA sits at just .182. Cameron Maybin is a bit iffy with concussion-like symptoms after colliding with teammate Gaby Sanchez, though he did suit up last night. The Marlins certainly have some need for another outfielder, but whether or not they decide to promote their best prospect will probably end up being a matter of future payroll.

Since the season is already more than two weeks old, Stanton’s free agency has already been pushed back bya year. However, if the Marlins wanted to push back his arbitration years before calling him up, they would have to wait until the end of May, which doesn’t help us fantasy owners any.

If there’s any prospect in the game that could come up and have a Ryan Braun-like impact in the second half as a rookie, it’s Stanton. He might not hit for average right away (or ever), but the power is off the charts (.283 ISO in the minors), and the RBI opportunities will be there with guys like Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Sanchez (.399 combined OBP) in the lineup. Stanton is still available in all most leagues, and if you have a particularly deep bench, or are willing to carry a dead spot for a month, then by all means go out and grab him before the rush. Otherwise, keep an Florida’s outfield situation over the next few weeks, and get ready to pounce once they appear to have a need. He’s an option in all leagues.


Starting Pitchers: April 26th

There’s a few big name starting pitchers returning from the disabled list this week, so let’s look at how their arrival could impact your fantasy team…

Cliff Lee (expected back Friday)

The Mariners aren’t quite sure (or have just declined to announce) who they’re going to lift from the rotation for Lee, but the signs point to Ryan Rowland-Smith. Both Jason Vargas (3.39 FIP) and Doug Fister (2.71) have pitched well enough to keep their jobs, and it’s already been announced that Ian Snell will keep his spot, but just be pushed back a few days in lieu of Lee.

Through just about four complete turns through the rotation, RRS has been the weak spot, posting a 7.47 FIP thanks to a completely unacceptable 0.50 K/BB. He’s run into a little bad homerun luck (15.0% HR/FB), but the scary part is that his BABIP sits at just .198. Once that starts to correct itself, the Aussie-born lefty could see his ERA (4.63) and WHIP (1.33) get even uglier. The fact that the Mariners don’t have a southpaw in the bullpen adds a little more fuel to the fire, especially since RRS has historically been better against same-side batters during his career. He’s still owned in 33% of Yahoo! leagues, which at this point is far too many. Lee, obviously, is a must start all season.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (expected back Sunday)

One of the biggest enigmas in the league, Dice-K went from fantasy stud in 2008 to hurt and ineffective in 2009, and now we have no idea what to expect when he returns from back and neck issues. CHONE projects a 4.30 ERA with his usually high WHIP (1.41) and a slight drop in strikeouts (7.89 K/9), a projection that lumps him in with guys like Jorge de la Rosa, Jonathan Sanchez, and Edwin Jackson. Solid No. 3 or 4 fantasy options, but hardly staff anchors.

However, those three are owned in 81-84% of Yahoo! leagues, while Dice-K is owned in just 46%. The risk of injury and/or total meltdown may be higher, but so is the reward considering the strong defense behind him (yes, I know the Boston’s run prevention attack hasn’t done the job so far, but they will soon enough). With starts coming up against the helpless Orioles (.303 wOBA) and somewhat offensively challenged Angels (.322), jumping on him a little earlier than most could pay dividends. He’ll frustrate the hell out of you, but then again so will most fantasy starters.

Other Notes

Brett Anderson scared fantasy owners and A’s fans alike when he exited his last start with a stiff left elbow, and the team is justifiably taking it slow with him. He may not make his next start, which would put Chad Gaudin or Tyson Ross in the rotation for a turn. Neither has fantasy value. Vicente Padilla was placed on the disabled list, but his replacement has yet to be named. Regardless, none of the possibilities to replace him are viable fantasy options. Jeff Suppan has been replaced by Chris Narveson in Milwaukee’s starting five, but he’s not rosterable in any league. The same could be said for Luis Atilano, who took over for the injured Jason Marquis.

The Blue Jays recalled Brett Cecil earlier this week to replace the injured Brian Tallet, and he went on to strike out eight Rays over 6.2 innings in his first start. The former University of Maryland closer mixes his curveball, slider, and changeup in heavily with his low-90’s fastball, and he’s posted very strong minor league batted ball rates (42.9% GB, 22.9% LD, 28.6% FB). His next start is against the Red Sox at home, but after that he’s looking at outings against the offensively inept Indians (.290 wOBA) and White Sox (.311). If you’re in an AL-only or deep mixed league, he’s a fine option if you look ahead to early next week.


Rangers call on Smoak

With Chris Davis struggling to do much of anything at the plate, the Rangers turned to their cache of prospects and called up one of the game’s very best, first baseman Justin Smoak. Based on how they handled Elvis Andrus and Julio Borbon (during his second call-up), they promoted Smoak with the intention of playing him, not to use him as a spot starter/pinch hitter.

CHONE projects a meager .240/.340/.363 batting line with eight homers for the former South Carolina standout, but I think that’s selling him short. During his 14-game stint with Triple-A Oklahoma City (an obviously small sample), Smoak hit .326/.500/.587 with a gaudy 6/16 K/BB ratio, which is as many walks as Davis has drawn in the last ten months. His career minor league line sits at .295/.413/.465. Smoak doesn’t offer a tremendous amount of power, but he’s going to play half his games in a park that has inflated homeruns nearly 20% over the last three years. Double digit bombs is certainly in the realm of possibility, plus he’ll score plenty of runs because he’s an on-base monster.

The one concern is that even though he’s a switch hitter, Smoak does have a rather pronounced platoon split – .324/.443/.505 vs. RHP, .215/.304/.331 vs. LHP – in his pro career according to minorleaguesplits.com. There’s plenty of quality lefthanders in the AL West, so he might not be an every day starter for your team, at least initially.

Ike Davis‘ promotion to the big leagues was much more ballyhooed because of his market, but Smoak is a superior fantasy option in essentially every single way. He’s owned in just 2% of Yahoo! leagues, so run out and grab him if you need some help at first or could use a nice trade chip.

As for (Chris) Davis, expect his playing time to take a pretty significant hit, and don’t be surprised to see him wind back up in the minors for a little wake-up call. The 1B/3B eligibility is nice, but he fantasy value is as low as can be. Swinging at one out of every three pitches out of the zone is no way to live life.