The month of April was far from kind to the one they call Big Papi. He managed just a Melkyian .233 wOBA with far more strikeouts (21) than times on base (15) during the season’s first month, and all hope looked lost. As a 34-year-old DH doing this for the second time in as many seasons, baseball fans dug in with their forks and considered him done. The .390 wOBA and 27 homers he put up after June 5th last year were considered his last hurrah.

But then something strange happened. The calender turned to May, and all of a sudden Ortiz started hitting again. Quite literally too, he hit two homers on May 1st and hasn’t looked back since. In 46 plate appearances this month, he’s sporting a .477 wOBA with six homers and 14 RBI, all three of which rank among the ten best in the game during that time. Papi’s back, right? Errr, maybe.

Ortiz’ May resurgence isn’t without luck. His .417 BABIP is completely unsustainable, especially for a guy whose speed is measured on the Molina scale. More than 37% of his fly balls are leaving the park this month, and that’s sure to come down. Even in his heyday fewer than one-fourth of his fly balls were landing in the people. He’s also hitting more balls in the air in general, 53.3% compared to his career mark of 45.5%. These will all regress at some point.

The one thing Ortiz has done better this month than last is pull the ball. Courtesy of the great TexasLeaguers.com, here’s his spray chart for April and May…

Right away you can see that Papi’s hooked way more balls into rightfield in May than he did in April. As Jack showed before the season, when you pull the ball, you’re going to hit for more power. It’s that simple. Whether being able to pull the ball has stemmed from Ortiz regaining some of that lost bat speed or just cheating like crazy on fastballs is a question for people far smarter than I. Either way, it’s a good sign for Sox fans and fantasy owners alike.

The Red Sox have a .350 team OBP and some really, really good hitters at the top of their lineup, so the RBI opportunities will be there for Ortiz. ZiPS rest of the season projections call for a .378 wOBA with 22 homers and 54 RBI, which seems a tad optimistic on the surface. Even if he settles in as a .355ish wOBA hitter with 17% HR/FB or so the rest of the way, he’s definitely worth a roster spot. That’s basically Luke Scott circa 2009, just with more men on base in front of him.

Ortiz has managed to retain 1B eligibility in Yahoo! leagues despite playing a grand total of 39 innings at the position over the last two seasons. Don’t ask me. I don’t make the rules, I just benefit from them. He’s owned in 33% of leagues, and that rate has steadily climbed over the last two weeks or so. Ortiz isn’t going to maintain his torrid May pace over the rest of the season, but he’s showing signs of life and is rebuilding some fantasy value. If you’re in an AL-only or a particularly deep mixed league, chances are he’s an upgrade over whoever you’re currently stashing in the UTIL spot or on your bench. Just make sure you keep him glued to the bench against southpaws.

Everyone knew that the Nationals were going to promote a 2009 first round pick to help their big league pitching staff before long, but everyone assumed it would be Stephen Strasburg. Turns out that he got beat to the punch by Drew Storen, a reliever from Stanford taken tenth overall last year, when Washington summoned the righty in time for Monday’s game. The Nats were so excited to bring him up that they promoted him while he was in the middle of a Triple-A relief appearance.

Nats’ pitching coach Steve McCatty said the team will “ease” Storen into action, which is as cliche as it comes. Every team says that about every rookie ever. Naturally, Storen made his big league debut last night, coming into the 7th inning of a two run game with one out, a man on first and the Cardinals’ top of the order due up. Easing him right into it, I’d say. He escaped the inning by getting Felipe Lopez to fly out to foul territory and striking out Matt Holliday (with a HBP of Ryan Ludwick sandwiched in between).

Storen’s minor league track record is stellar yet limited, featuring a 64/11 K/BB ratio with close to a 40% ground ball rate in 53.2 innings. Baseball America touts him as being aggressive in the zone with a 92-94 mph fastball, a hard slider, and a hard curveball, which makes you a) wonder if the Nats at least considered making him a starter, and b) think he should be better than your store brand middle reliever.

Matt Capps has done a very nice job in the closer’s role so far (3.69 xFIP, 14 for 14 in save opps), and Tyler Clippard (4.24 xFIP) seems to have a lock on the setup job despite allowing 12 of 22 inherited runners to score and leading the league with five blown saves. So at best, Storen is third in line for save opportunities in the nation’s capitol.

Things can change, of course, and with relievers they tend to do. If the Nats are unable to stay in contention throughout the summer (two games back of Wild Card at the moment), Capps could find his way onto the trade block, and the general volatility to relievers could bump Clippard down in the pecking order. As we’ve seen with guys like Huston Street, Andrew Bailey, and Neftali Feliz, teams will not hesitate to throw a young pitcher into high leverage situations if he’s the best option.

It’s no secret that Storen is the team’s closer of the future, but the future is not here just yet. There’s still a few hurdles to clear. Very few setup men are worth a roster spot in a standard 5×5, 12-team league, and there’s no reason to assume Storen is one of those guys until he gets some more appearances under his belt. If you’re in a deep keeper league or you count holds, then by all means grab him. I expect him to take over the 7th inning/fireman role in relatively short order. Storen is available in basically every league now, but if you’re looking for saves, hold off for a while.

Starting pitcher notes from around the MLBiverse…

Jeff Francis | Rockies

For the first time over than 20 months, Francis took to a big league mound yesterday, limiting the Nationals to just one run over seven innings at home. Finesse lefties aren’t prime fantasy pieces, and at his best Francis was a low-4.00’s ERA guy with mediocre WHIP’s and strikeout numbers. Coming back from major shoulder surgery makes him an even riskier proposition. Regardless, he’s is owned in just 5% of Yahoo! leagues, and has some value as a 5th or 6th starter in an NL-only or deep mixed league. If you’re willing to roll the dice, just make sure you watch the matchups until he proves effective.

Javier Vazquez | Yankees

Even though he pitched well against the Tigers last week (two runs and seven strikeouts in seven innings), the Yanks are again skipping Vazquez’s turn through the rotation. Part of that has to do with keeping him away from the Red Sox, but it also has to do with creating better matchups for the rest of the starting staff. Barring weather and/or injury, Vazquez’s next five starts will come against the Mets, Indians, Orioles, Orioles again, and the Astros. That’s a nice little stretch.

ZiPS rest of the season projection calls for a 3.89 ERA with close to a strikeout per inning, but even if you’re pessimistic, an ERA in the low-4.00’s is within reach from here on out. Vazquez is still owned in 74% of Yahoo! leagues, but you’ve still got a chance to go out and try to buy low in a trade.

Tyson Ross | Athletics

Justin Duchscherer’s return from the disabled list has been derailed, possibly costing him the rest of the season, so long man Tyson Ross could get an opportunity to stay in the rotation. His spot start against the Angels over the weekend wasn’t pretty (three runs in 3.2 IP), but he gets a mulligan because his 62 pitches were a season high (by 12) and he’s still just getting back into starting shape. His minor league career features a good number of strikeouts (7.5 K/9) and an absurd ground ball rate (57.5% according to minorleaguesplits.com), and those skills have approximately translated in his tiny big league sampling (22.2 IP, 6.75 K/9, 55.4 GB%). A low-4.00’s ERA is possible the rest of the way with a little help of Oakland’s park.

If Ross is bumped back into the bullpen, Vin Mazzaro is the obvious candidate to assume the vacated rotation spot. Both are available in basically every league.

The Mets

We’re going to have to give the Mets their own section here. A day after announcing that Oliver Perez had been demoted to the bullpen, Jonathon Niese left his start with a hamstring injury. Long reliever Hisanori Takahashi was a candidate to take Perez’s rotation spot, but he had to come in relief of Niese, so he’s no longer an option. They have R.A. Dickey pitching well in Triple-A (~3.00 FIP) and he lines up perfectly to take Ollie’s place on Wednesday, and then Takahashi comes back into play for Niese’s Friday start. Either way, I just wasted about 100 words to tell you that the Mets’ rotation is a mess and other than Johan Santana and maybe Mike Pelfrey, none of them are rosterable.

Just Because…

Zach already touched on Max Scherzer’s demotion, and for now he’ll be replaced by Armando Galarraga. His flukiness has been well documented, so don’t fall into the trap of thinking he can repeat his flashy 2008 ERA. The best way he can help your fantasy team is if someone else takes the bait.

The Braves added a productive corner outfielder to their roster with much fanfare last month when they took Jason Heyward north out of Spring Training, but over the last week or so they’ve improved the other corner spot without nearly as much attention. Melky Cabrera’s offensive ineptitude (.236 wOBA prior to today’s fruitless pinch hitting appearance) proved too much to overcome, so Bobby Cox has instead started playing former Rookie of the Year Eric Hinske on an almost every day basis in left field.

Hinske woke up Sunday with a .403 wOBA, and that’s only going to go up following his 2-for-3 with a homer (four RBI) effort this afternoon. Since joining the regular outfield picture nine days ago, he’s 10-for-21 with five doubles, that one homer, and nine runs driven in. His 3.2 wRAA is right behind Brian McCann for the second highest total on the team, but he’s still miles behind Heyward.

A .421 BABIP isn’t sustainable, so expect his .340 AVG to settle back into his usual .250ish range at some point. The homer today was his first of the season even though he’s hitting approximately the same number of fly balls as he always has (37.8% in 2010 vs. 39.7% career), and his line drive rate is actually the highest of his career (27% vs. 20.6%). That’ll come down and so will the extra base hits, but for now Hinske is performing well and has definite value in NL-only or deep mixed leagues.

The object of many Blue Jays’ fans affection (I keed, I keed) is owned in just 1% of Yahoo leagues, so he’s probably available in yours. Best of all, he’s eligible at 1B, 3B, and in the OF, and flexibility is always appreciated. Aside from a date with Johan Santana on Tuesday, the Braves will face righthanders all week, so Hinske should see plenty of at-bats. If you’re looking to tread water while dealing with an injury or a prolonged slump (I’m looking at you, Casey Blake), or if you just need an upgrade to your bench, Hinske’s a great waiver target.

The Orioles demoted the struggling Nolan Reimold to Triple-A Norfolk earlier this week, unsatisfied with his .292 wOBA follow-up to last season’s .365 mark. He’ll go down, crush minor league pitching a la Chris Davis, then return to the O’s at some point this summer for a second chance. For now, he’s been replaced in the lineup and in left field by none other than Corey Patterson, who had been playing exceptionally well in Triple-A (.368/.419/.491 with three steals in 14 games). Regular leadoff man Brian Roberts is on the 60-day DL and isn’t expected back for several weeks, so for now Patterson will hold down the top of the order for Dave Trembley.

We all know that giving a guy with a career .290 OBP more plate appearances than anyone else in your lineup is foolish, and at this point adding Patterson to your fantasy team is foolish as well. His past stolen base totals are gaudy and tempting, no doubt about it, but he’s just not running anymore. Well that’s not entirely true. He’s still running, just not as often and without as much success.

Stolen base opportunity data comes from B-Ref. It’s not even worth mentioning the 2009 season because he was in the big leagues for a grand total of 16 games.

Patterson isn’t young anymore – he’ll be 31 in August – and he isn’t stealing as many bases as he used to either because he knows he’s slowed down and/or because he’s not interested in that part of the game anymore. Who knows, I’m just guessing. He missed 25 days with an ankle sprain at the end of the 2007 season, so maybe that has something to do with it. Regardless, the former speed demon and isn’t doing the one thing that gives him fantasy value anymore.

ZiPS pegs him for a grand total of nine steals the rest of the way, and that’s in 320 plate appearances. Those steals obviously aren’t going to be worth the big hit you’ll take everywhere else. I honestly had no idea that his SB numbers had tailed off so much, and coming into this post I figured he’d be a decent 4th or 5th OF grab to add steals. Shows what I know. Knowing who to keep off your fantasy roster is just as important as knowing who to keep on it.

If you’re that desperate for steals, Juan Pierre (17 SB) and Rajai Davis (12) are still available in most in Yahoo! leagues.

Three guys will relatively low ownership that could help shore up some holes on your roster…

Orlando Hudson | 2B | Twins (36% owned)

Hitting in front of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau has it’s benefits, and no it doesn’t have anything to do with that stuff about getting more fastballs to hit and whatnot. The benefit is that if you get on base, you’re going to score a ton of runs. O-Dog’s getting on base just about 37% of the time, so it should be no surprise that he’s scored more runs than all but seven players in the game. His walk rate (9.9%) and BABIP (.310) are in line with his career marks (8.9%, .316, respectively), so there’s no fall off to be expected. As an added bonus, Hudson’s also stealing a little bit more, once every 15.6 times on first compared to once every 21.4 times previously in his career.

(In case you’re wondering, Hudson has seen more fastballs this year, 66% in fact. That’s up from his career mark of … 65%.)

Ian Kennedy | SP/RP | Diamondbacks (18%)

It’s only May, but the former Yankee hurler has easily surpassed Edwin Jackson as the most productive member of this winter’s blockbuster trade for Arizona. After two kinda ugly starts to begin the season, the one they call IPK has held opponents to a Milledgian .616 OPS with a 2.08 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in his last five starts, and the matchups only get better: at Atlanta over the weekend, then at home against the Giants next week. He won’t maintain a .252 BABIP and an 82.9 LOB% forever, but a full season ERA right around 4.00 is well within reach. Just cross your fingers that the Diamondbacks’ bullpen can actually preserve some of Kennedy’s leads.

Aaron Rowand | OF | Giants (20%)

The gap between what Rowand is and what he’s perceived to be by the mainstream media types might be the largest in the game, but there’s no denying that the Giants’ centerfielder has been really productive in 2010. His .291 AVG is the second best he’s posted in the last six years, and there’s no BABIP funniness to worry about (.313 BABIP in ’10, .321 career). The power is the big difference; Rowand’s .221 ISO is well above his .169 career mark, and that’s because more than 18% of the balls he’s hit in the air have left the park. That is unlikely to sustain over the long-haul, especially considering home park.

Oddly enough, Rowand has a massive reverse split this year, but that’s something that should correct itself with time. I don’t like him as a top three outfielder in a standard 12-team league, but he’s a solid bench option to have around when one of your regulars has a day off.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

Notes on three closer spots from around the league…

Manny Corpas | Rockies

Huston Street continues to work his way back from a shoulder issue, though now replacement closer Franklin Morales has landed on the disabled list with a shoulder problem of his own. Manager Jim Tracy indicated that the save opportunities will fall into Corpas’ lap for the time being. He’s not going to give you much in terms of strikeouts (6.75 K/9 in 2010, 6.43 career), but he won’t kill you in the ERA and WHIP categories. Corpas did cough up four runs in his latest outing, when he entered the 9th inning of a tied game against the Phillies yesterday.

Saves are saves, and the Rockies have series against the Cubs, Astros, and Royals coming up, so Corpas should see a few opportunities before one of the higher ups returns from the DL. He’s available in all but 13% of Yahoo! leagues.

Bobby Jenks | White Sox

Jenks has gotten shakier and shakier through the years, but it wasn’t until now that Ozzie Guillen went ahead and did something about it. The ChiSox manager told reporters that his closer will now depend on the 9th inning matchups. That means Jenks gets the righties, and Matt Thornton gets the lefties. Thornton is one of those rare setup men that is worth owning in a standard 12 team, 5×5 league anyway, but he becomes even more valuable with some save opps coming his way.

The strikeouts are extraordinarily high (14.67 K/9), the ERA (2.35) and WHIP (0.72) extraordinarily low, so go out and grab him before Ozzie gives the job back to Jenks outright. Thornton is owned in 65% of Yahoo! leagues.

Kerry Wood | Indians

After a month long stint on the DL, Wood made a pair of warm up appearances over the weekend and Manny Acta is ready to stick him back in the 9th inning. Chris Perez is takes a step back into a setup role. We know what Kerry Wood is by now, a double-digit K/9 guy that won’t kill your ERA or WHIP. I’ll put this as nicely as possible … the Indians aren’t going to give Wood too many 9th inning leads to protect, but there should be a few every now and then. There, that works. Their upcoming schedule includes six games with the Royals and Orioles, so there’s some hope for this week.

Wood is owned in 33% of Yahoo! leagues.

Mired in a three game losing streak, the Cubs shook things up last week by shifting Ryan Theriot to second base and calling upon top prospect Starlin Castro to assume shortstop duties. Bryan ranked him as the 25th best prospect in the game coming into the season, then introduced you to him on Friday, so let’s not reinvent the wheel and instead focus on what his arrival means for you fantasy owners.

Castro debuted in a huge way, whacking a three run homer in his first big league plate appearance before ripping a bases clearing triple later in the game, making him the first player in history to pick up six RBI in his debut. And that’s on top of being the youngest shortstop in Cubs’ history. It was without a doubt an impressive debut, and as things like that tend to do, it sent more than one owner scrambled to the waiver wire to gobble him up before anyone else did.

CHONE projects a .251/.290/.339 batting line (.280 wOBA by my calculation) with three homers and 14 steals this year, and a projection like that would have him outside of the top 16 fantasy shortstops. Unfortunately for your fantasy team, a big chunk of his value comes from his ability to field a premium position, which does nothing for you unless you’re in a league that counts UZR or +/- (that would be pretty cool).

Even if we want to dream a little bit and say that Castro will instead approach the league average .326 wOBA with 15 or so steals the rest of the year, it puts him on fantasy par with guys like Alexei Ramirez and (not to mix positions, but) Luis Castillo. Basically backup options in mixed leagues or second and third tier starting options in deep mixed or AL/NL-only leagues. However, I look at Castro and think he compares favorably to another NL Central rookie shortstop: Alcides Escobar.

For whatever reason, Escobar has gone from a 20+ SB threat to zero (and just one attempt) through the season’s first month. He says he’s going to steal more, but it hasn’t happened yet. ZiPS sees a .271 AVG with 18 SB and five homers the rest of the way, and I think Castro could give you almost exactly that as well. If anything, I’d expect just a little more pop from the Cubs’ shortstop because of his home park. 20-year-olds are tricky to project, so there’s a whole lotta dreamin’ that has to go on here.

Castro set the bar high in his big league debut, but he’s done a good job of following that up and has reached base in all four games he’s played. If you’re a frustrated Escobar owner, swapping him out with Castro could net you those steals you thought you were getting, and maybe even a little more. He’s owned in just 10% of Yahoo! leagues, so chances are he’s still available in yours as well.

Updates on three rotation spots from around the league…

Derek Holland | Rangers

Matt Harrison is on the disabled list with a biceps tendon issue, so Texas is turning to Holland to fill his rotation spot. The 23-year-old posted an unsightly 6.12 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP in 138.1 IP for the big league team last year, though his 4.38 xFIP is a bit better. He was extremely homer prone, surrendering one long ball for every 5.1 IP, and it wasn’t just a function of Texas’ ballpark either (1.25 HR/9 on the road). Holland is still one of the brightest young lefties in the game, absolutely destroying the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League before his promotion (2.16 FIP, 8.6 K/9, 5.3 K/BB). His next two starts are at home, so the homers might continue to be a problem, but he’ll face the A’s (.308 wOBA) and Angels (.317 wOBA), hardly offensive powerhouses.

Holland is owned in just 2% of Yahoo! leagues, but he should be a nice boost for your team over his next two starts, if not more.

Kris Medlen | Braves

Jair Jurrjens, a fantasy darling last year because of a 2.60 ERA and 14 wins, is on the disabled list with a bum hammy, leaving his starts to the 24-year-old Medlen. He held the Phillies to one run over 4.1 IP in his first start over the weekend, and overall he’s got a snazzy 6.33 K/BB and 3.38 xFIP, albeit in just 22 IP. Medlen’s somewhat limited track record suggests that he can miss bats (9.8% career SwStr%), keep the ball on the ground (41.4 GB%) and thus limit homers (0.60 HR/9), but he’s still a bit of a roll of the dice. His next start comes against the Diamondbacks, and it sounds like Jurrjens will be back shortly after that. Despite sexy ERA and WHIP totals, I consider him non-rosterable in anything but the deepest of deep leagues.

Ross Ohlendorf | Pirates

Back spasms kept the former Yankee on the disabled list for the last month, but he’s set to return to the Buc’s rotation later today. Ohlendorf’s sparkling 3.92 ERA last season hid some poor peripherals – 5.55 K/9, 1.27 HR/9, .265 BABIP – so it’s tough to expect him to maintain a similar ERA going forward. Following today’s start against the Reds, he’ll take on the Cubs in Wrigley, so they aren’t the best of matchups. In a deep mixed or NL-only league, Ohlendorf has a smidgen of value as a matchup 6th or 7th SP. He’s still available in 97% of Yahoo! leagues, but I wouldn’t rush out to get him. Not until he shows he’s over the back issues and is somewhat serviceable, anyway.

Three outfielders, one for standard leagues and two for the deepest of deep leagues…

Nick Swisher | Yankees | 53% owned

Best known as a three true outcomer, the former Ohio State Buckeye has been slightly more aggressive at the plate in 2010 than in the past (68.9 Z-Swing% in ’10 vs. sub-60% from ’08-’09), which has resulted in fewer strikeouts (18.9 K%), a slightly higher BABIP (.319), and thus a better AVG (.295). More contact for Swisher means more extra base hits (.253 ISO), and with the Yankees’ lineup, more extra base hits means more runs scored and more RBI for your fantasy team. As an added bonus, he also has both 1B and OF eligibility.

Brennan Boesch | Tigers | 1%

Called up once Carlos Guillen hit the disabled list, the lefty swinging Boesch has put up a .412 wOBA while facing nothing but pitchers of the opposite hand. His dominance of righties goes back to the last few years of his minor league career, so this is nothing new. You’re not going to get much help with the OBP category, but he’ll offer a nice amount of pop and good average if managed properly. Detroit faces lefthander David Huff tomorrow night, but after that you’re in the clear until at least the middle of next week.

Marcus Thames | Yankees | 1%

Signed during the offseason to be the team’s designated southpaw masher, Thames is going to see some more plate appearances this month because of Curtis Granderson’s injury. He’s sporting a small sample .503 wOBA, with basically all of the damage coming against lefties. Thames is obviously not going to maintain that pace all year, but he’s been a lefty killer his entire career (.367 wOBA vs. .326 vs. RHP), so 2010 is nothing different. With dates coming up against Jon Lester and Dontrelle Willis, Thames could pay dividends this weekend if you pick your spots with him.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues