Some low ownership starting pitchers coming to a rotation spot near you…

Dana Eveland | Pirates | 1% owned

Yeah, it is odd to talk about Eveland on a fantasy site considering that all of his pitching independent stats stink dating back to his 2.7 WAR season in 2008. The only reason I’m mentioning him is because he’s got a date with the lefty heavily and certifiably awful Indians later this week, so you’ve got a prime opportunity to steal a cheap win, or at least a few strikeouts and a possible ERA/WHIP boost come next weekend.

Tommy Hunter | Rangers | 3%

Hunter returned from a strained oblique just in time to replace the injured Derek Holland, and all he did was allow one run over nine innings of work against the Rays in his first start of the year on Saturday. He’s not going to set the world on fire with such a low strikeout rate ((R) ZiPS calls for a 5.03 FIP and 4.55 K/9 the rest of the way), but his next few starts come at home against the Mariners, at the Marlins, then at home against the Pirates and Astros. If you’re lagging behind some of the pitching categories, Hunter could give you a decent boost in an AL-only or deep mixed league.

Vin Mazzaro | Athletics | 0%

Brett Anderson’s injury isn’t quite the worst case scenario, but it’s pretty bad. His absence opens up a spot for Mazzaro, who’s been pretty dreadful in limited action so far. (R) ZiPS calls for a 5.45 ERA (4.72 FIP) with 5.45 K/9 that’s considerably worse than his 7.7 K/9 mark in over 125 IP at the Triple-A level. Mazzaro’s fastball-slider heavy approach is best suited for the bullpen, but like Eveland he gives you a chance at a cheap stats boost when he starts against the Giants in San Francisco next weekend.

Jonathon Niese | Mets | 3%

Oliver Perez is finally off the Mets’ active roster, though not in the way many had hoped. He’s currently on the DL with a case of suckitis knee tendinitis so suspicious that the league is investigating. His roster spot went to Niese, who returned from his second hamstring issue in as many seasons to hold the Marlins to one run over seven innings on Saturday.

(R) ZiPS calls for a 4.60 ERA (4.02 FIP) with 6.61 K/9 the rest of the way, but I love him as a matchup starter in the back of a fantasy staff. His home park certainly suppresses offense and he has no discernible platoon split, so a righty heavy lineup won’t kill him. Niese’s next two starts come at the Orioles and at the Indians, so he’s got that going for him. I’m a fan, especially in NL-only or deep mixed leagues.

Adam Ottavino | Cardinals | 0%

Erik Manning called it, Brad Penny’s injury is going to require a lot more time off than just the 15 day DL stint, opening up a spot for Ottavino. His minor league track record suggests lots of walks (4.2 BB/9) but a decent amount of strikeouts (7.9 K/9) and groundballs (46.7% GB). Sticking with the theme of this post, Ottavino has a pair of favorable matchups coming up: at the hacktastic Diamondbacks and home against the A’s. In an NL-only or a deep mixed league, he could be a decent play the next two times out.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here’s a pair of players with low ownership rates that could give your team a nice temporary boost…

Aubrey Huff | 1B/OF | Giants | 17%

Quick, guess which everyday player leads the Giants in wOBA? Okay, it’s Andres Torres at .380. But guess who’s second? It’s Huff, at .376. He’s rebounded very well from a dreadful 2009 season, thanks in part to the highest walk rate of his career (11.6 BB%) and his lowest strikeout rate in six years (13.5 K%). A slight (~2%) boost in Huff’s line drive and fly ball rates have pushed his ISO back up to respectable .174, so all he needs is some more men on base to drive in. Flexibility is always appreciated from bench players, but just make sure you sit him against southpaws (.331 wOBA vs. LHP, .392 vs. RHP).

Clayton Richard | SP | Padres | 37%

The Padres are in first place because of their stellar pitching (3.73 team xFIP, best in the game) and defense (19.2 UZR, second best), and part of that has been Richard’s rock solid work at the back of the rotation. Although his 2.87 ERA is propped up by a rather high 79.0% strand rate, his defense independent stats are very good (3.36 FIP, 4.08 xFIP), and his strikeout rate (6.65 K/9) is good for a matchup starter on a fantasy club. Two of his next three starts come against the Mariners and Orioles, who are always welcome opponents.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

Brian already took a look at ten hitters who improved in May after subpar Aprils, so now let’s do the same with the guys on the mound.

Scott Baker

A: 4.28 xFIP
M: 3.67

Amazingly, Baker’s batted ball data was practically identical in the season’s first two months, but he beefed up the strikeouts (7.82 K/9, up from 6.35) and cut down the walks (1.89 BB/9, down from 2.54). The result was a 3.55 ERA that’s much more indicative of his true performance than his 5.72 April mark. (R) ZiPS sees a 3.88 FIP and 7.00 K/9.

Chad Billingsley

A: 4.36 xFIP
M: 3.50

The ace version of Billingsley showed up in May, flashing an 8.77 K/9 and a 2.31 BB/9, which are much better than what we’ve seen out of him over the season’s first month and the end of last year. (R) ZiPS calls for a 3.49 FIP with 8.60 K/9.

Jeremy Bonderman

A: 4.43 xFIP
M: 3.65

Still just 27, Bonderman might have a big second half contract push in him. The K/9 and BB/9 both improved by more than one in May. (R) ZiPS sees a 4.42 FIP and 6.50.

Johnny Cueto

A: 4.87 xFIP
M: 3.21

Sure, his .244 May BABIP is low, but he increased his K/9 by more than four strikeouts (up to 9.79) and knocked more than a full walk off his BB/9 (down to 1.85). (R) ZiPS projects a 4.17 FIP with 7.62 K/9.

Aaron Harang

A: 4.16 xFIP
M: 3.62

The Harangatang hasn’t been himself for over a year now, but he still has strikeout value. Once he starts stranding more than 6% of the runners that reach base, his 5.48 ERA should start to resemble his defense-independent numbers. His homerun rate returned to normal in May, which is always welcome. (R) ZiPS projects a 4.12 FIP and 7.51 K/9.

Rich Harden

A: 6.82 xFIP
M: 4.63

Yeah, he’s the least economical pitcher in the game at 19.7 P/IP (one-tenth of a pitch ahead of Charlie Morton!), but he stopped walking everyone and their mother last month: his BB/9 rate went from an ungodly 8.75 to a much more reasonable 3.91. (R) ZiPS projects a 4.10 FIP with 9.78 K/9.

Edwin Jackson

A: 4.28 xFIP
M: 3.63

Jackson won’t return to first half of 2009 levels anytime soon, but his strikeout rate jumped up from 5.40 K/9 in April to 9.60 in May, and his BABIP fell back to a more reasonable level (.305). Not all the way there yet, but it’s progress. (R) ZiPS predicts a 4.32 FIP and 6.98 K/9.

Jake Peavy

A: 5.84 xFIP
M: 3.03 xFIP

The former Cy Young Award winner’s ERA was still bad this month (5.09), but Peavy’s K/9, BB/9 and GB% went from 6.91, 6.28, and 31.5% in April to 8.85, 1.11, and 48.3% in May, respectively. He’s not quite there yet, but at least there’s signs of improvement. (R) ZiPS calls for a 3.89 FIP and 8.69 K/9.

Ervin Santana

A: 4.12 xFIP
M: 4.00

The strikeouts climbed to 8.44 K/9, the walks dropped to 2.32 BB/9, and the homerun rate leveled off at 10.0% HR/FB. The (R) ZiPS survey says … 4.10 FIP and 7.98 K/9.

Ben Sheets

A: 5.35 xFIP
M: 3.92

Apparently everything that was wrong with Sheets in April was corrected in May when the A’s realized he was tipping his curveball. Sure enough, his K/9 (9.42) more than doubled last month, and the rest of his peripherals look more like the Ben Sheets we all know and love. (R) ZiPS predicts just 4.31 FIP with 6.24 K/9. I’ll take that bet.

We already discussed Buster Posey’s arrival over the weekend, but here’s two more recent call ups that could help your team…

Andrew Cashner | Cubs | RP

The Cubs’ first round pick in 2008 made quick work of the minor leagues this year, posting a 59/15 K/BB ratio in 57 IP as a starter (~2.15 FIP) between Double- and Triple-A. The big league team needed some righthanded relief help with Carlos Zambrano moving back into the rotation, so for the second time this year the Cubbies called on their top minor league prospect to fill a hole. Cashner debuted yesterday, getting Ronny Cedeno to pop up to short on just one pitch (a 95 mph fastball inside) with two men on and two outs in the 8th inning with Chicago trailing by one. It was about as spectacular as a one-pitch big league debut could be.

Now Cashner’s not going unseat Carlos Marmol as closer as long as the latter continues to strike out basically half the men he faces, but he could quickly push his way into some 7th and 8th inning setup work. Close to a strikeout per inning with a sub-4.00 ERA is likely, so if your league counts holds, here’s a new candidate to consider.

Chris Tillman | Orioles | SP

If you’re going to pick up an Orioles’ starter, you have to go in expecting very little help in the win column. Kevin Millwood is having his best season in about four years (4.00 xFIP, 3.41 K/BB), but he’s got an 0-5 record to show for it. Tillman and Brian Matusz are the future of Baltimore’s rotation, but right now they’re just 6th or 7th starters on a fantasy roster. ZiPS RoS projection for Tillman isn’t good – 5.13 ERA, 4.67 FIP – but I think he can best those numbers. Maybe I’m just a blind optimist, but I think he can keep his walks around 3.5 BB/9 and his strikeouts around 7.5-8.0 K/9 (both in line with his career Triple-A performance), which should put his ERA in the low-to-mid 4.00’s assuming a somewhat normal homerun rate.

The AL East is an unforgiving place, especially when you play for a generally awful team, so Tillman only has value in deep mixed or AL-only leagues. His next two starts come at home against the Red Sox and Yankees, but after that he lines up for dates in San Francisco, in San Diego, at home against the Nats, and at home against the A’s. Not a bad stretch of matchups, so there’s a little bit of value to be had this month.

Updates on three AL rotation spots…

Brett Anderson | Athletics | 76% owned

After missing a total of 35 days with a strained flexor tendon, Oakland’s young lefty made his triumphant return to the mound on Saturday. Limited to 70 pitches, Anderson struck out four Tigers and allowed just three hits (two singles and a double) in 5.2 scoreless innings, throwing 70% of his pitches for strikes. Anderson’s ascent to greatness merely hit a speed bump with the injury, and ZiPS RoS projection sees a 3.54 FIP the rest of the way. He’ll be eased back into things over the next few weeks, but don’t hesitate to start him.

Max Scherzer | Tigers | 29%

One day after Anderson returned from injury, Scherzer returned from a minor league hiatus at the expense of Dontrelle Willis. To say the wake-up call worked would be an understatement. The former D-Back struck out 14 of the 24 men he faced, knocking close to ninth-tenths of a run off his ERA. Scherzer’s next two starts come at the Royals and at the White Sox, two pretty favorable matchups that should get him started on his way towards the 4.01 FIP and 8.47 K/9 ZiPS projects for the rest of the season. In an AL-only or deep mixed league, gimme gimme gimme. He’s a solid pickup in standard 12-team leagues as well.

Tim Wakefield | Red Sox | 4%

Josh Beckett’s back continues to be an issue, so the 43-year-old knuckleballer will stay in the rotation for the foreseeable future. When it comes to fantasy, Wakefield’s only real value comes from wins, though you’ll occasionally luck into a six or seven or eight strikeout game. His next two starts come against the A’s (.310 team wOBA) and at Cleveland (generally awful), so there’s a chance for some cheap wins if you’re willing to live with the ERA and WHIP hits.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Everyone wanted it to happen except for the Giants, or at least it seemed that way. San Francisco finally called on top prospect Buster Posey today, and will start him at first base against the Diamondbacks tonight. He’s best known as a catcher and he’d provide the most value to the team from behind the plate, but for fantasy purposes, the more first base Posey plays, the better.

It’s Fantasy 101: he has catcher eligibility but will play at least part of the time at a less demanding position, which translates not only more at-bats in general, but (theoretically) better offensive production given the decreased wear and tear. It’s a win-win.

The Florida State product simply annihilated the minors during his season-plus stint there, racking up a .333/.427/.552 batting line in 750 plate appearances, almost all of them while squatting behind the plate. Baseball America ranked Posey as the 7th best prospect in the game coming into the season, calling him “a pure hitter with terrific strike-zone awareness, and his clean, unfettered swing allows him to drive pitches from pole to pole,” though they acknowledge that power isn’t his game. It’s not hyperbole to say he has the best plate approach of anyone in the organization, big leagues included.

CHONE projects a .329 wOBA in 2010, while ZiPS pegs him for .333. Both of those obliterate the .309 wOBA starting catcher Bengie Molina has put in 40 games this year, nevermind the .308 wOBA he fashioned last season. His homerun power might be minimal at the outset considering his home park and some of the parks in the NL West, but Posey should contribute solid AVG and OBP (if your league counts that) while surely chipping in a few RBI as well.

Posey is owned in just 15% of Yahoo! leagues, and right now he’s only eligible at catcher. He’ll pick up 1B eligibility in a week or so, and while it’s not terribly important, a little flexibility never hurt anyone. If your struggling to find production from the catcher’s spot – perhaps you’re stuck with an injury fill in like Francisco Cervelli – then there’s probably no better option on the waiver wire right now.

Here’s three players with relatively low ownership rates that could be a big boost to your team…

Gio Gonzalez | Athletics | SP | 30% owned

Gonzalez came into the season as Oakland’s fifth starter with 132.2 absolutely dreadful (6.24 ERA, 1.704 WHIP) big league innings to his credit, and his first three starts of the season were more of the same. Since then, Gio has turned it on and has quietly been on of the league’s best starters since April. His ERA sits at 2.72 (~3.40 FIP) over his last six starts, and he’s doing it with a little BABIP luck (.260) and the big breaking curveball that made him so highly regarded in the first place.

David examined Gonzalez earlier this month, and he’s continued his development into a viable big league starter. It’s probably too late to grab him in time for tonight’s start against the Orioles, but there’s still another 20 or so to go.

Anibal Sanchez | Marlins | SP | 14%

One of the other guys the Fish received in the Josh Beckett–Hanley Ramirez deal, Sanchez went from no-hit kid to the surgeon’s table in less than two years, and he’s just now rounding back into form. The righty had a pair of five run outings in his first two starts, but since then he’s dropped a 2.27 ERA (~2.60 FIP) on opponents in seven starts. Sanchez’s strikeout rate has steadily decreased since shoulder surgery (6.79 K/9), but the walks have followed along (down to 3.23 BB/9) while his GB% remains very strong on 44.2%. His next start comes against the suddenly offensively challenged Phillies on Sunday.

Josh Willingham | Nationals | OF | 36%

There’s only eight players in the NL with a wOBA over .400, and for the most part it’s guys you’d expect to be there. Ryan Braun, Jayson Werth, Chase Utley, so on and so forth. Not to be lost in that mix is The Hammer, who owns a .422 wOBA thanks to a league leading 34 walks. He’s even stolen four bases for good measure. Willingham’s 18.7 BB% is second in the NL to Chipper Jones, and is a function of not just swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone (15% O-Swing% in 2010 compared to 18% career), but also seeing getting fewer pitches in the zone in general (44% this year, 50.7% career). Chances are he’s already owned if your league counts OBP, but even beyond that his power (8 HR, .234 ISO) and RBI (29) prowess have plenty of value for you non-OBPers.

Ownership rates is based on Yahoo! leagues.

With June right around the corner, we’re going to start seeing more and more top prospects summoned to the big leagues now that their arbitration and free agent years have effectively been pushed back. Soon enough we’ll see guys like Mike Stanton (.456 wOBA at AA), Carlos Santana (.414 wOBA at AAA), and Stephen Strasburg (statistically unmeasurable awesomeness) arrive in the show, but for now we’ve got to rely on some lesser prospects for a fantasy boost.

Here’s two such players that will remain in the lineup for the foreseeable future…

Xavier Paul | Dodgers | OF

With Andre Ethier on the DL, Manny Ramirez dealing with a nagging foot problem, and Garret Anderson’s general ineptitude, Paul has been able to step in and get some regular playing time. He’s started five of the team’s last six games in RF, and in 52 total plate appearances this season he’s put up a .386 wOBA with three steals. Aside from a slight dip in his walk rate (5.8%), Paul’s strikeout (19.6%) and power (.152 ISO) output is right in line with what he’s done in over 700 AAA plate appearances over the last three seasons, though his .326 AVG is propped up by a .405 BABIP.

Even as his balls in play luck starts to go away (.358 BABIP in his minor league career), Paul will provide a decent average and steal enough bases to make him worth a roster spot in an NL-only or deep mixed league.

Juan Miranda | Yankees | 1B

It took 28 team games, but Nick Johnson has finally made his annual trip to the disabled list. He’ll be out until July at the very earliest after having third wrist surgery, but I’ll take the over. Miranda has been summoned from Triple-A purgatory to serve as the lefty half of a DH platoon in Johnson’s stead (Marcus Thames gets the at-bats vs. LHP), and has already managed to whack a pair of homers in a week’s worth of playing time. He’s proved all he can in the minors (.360 wOBA, .194 ISO, 1,500+ PA) and this will be his first extended opportunity in the bigs.

His lefty swing is a good fit for the latest version of Yankee Stadium, and even with some of the regulars playing below their career norms. that lineup offers plenty of RBI opportunities. Joe Girardi has a bit of a fetish with using the DH spot to give his regulars what he calls a “half-day off,” so you’re going to have to pay attention to the lineup each day to make sure Miranda’s actually in there. Like Paul, he’s a decent option in a deep mixed league.

A day late, but never a buck short…

Hisanori Takahashi | Mets | 6% owned in Yahoo! leagues

Brian Joura mentioned Takahashi as a potential waiver wire grab just yesterday, so let’s keep this short. The veteran Japanese lefty has secured a rotation spot for the foreseeable future given the injuries/ineffectiveness of Jonathon Niese, John Maine, and Oliver Perez, and his soft, softer, and softest offspeed heavy approach should continue to baffle hitters for the next few weeks.

Homer Bailey | Reds

Cincinnati’s somewhat enigmatic righty landed on the disabled list yesterday with shoulder inflammation, though the team has yet to announce his replacement. They did provide a list of candidates though, a list that did not include Aroldis Chapman. The best candidate is lefty Matt Maloney, who spent some time in the bigs last year (4.81 xFIP in 40.2 IP) and has a strong track record as a high strikeout (8.9 K/9), low walk (2.7 BB/9), and solid groundball (42.5%) pitcher in the minors. Sam LeCure and Travis Wood are the other candidates to take Bailey’s place, but neither offers the strikeout potential of Maloney.

All three line up to make Friday’s start (against the Astros!) at the moment, so pay attention to who starts for the Triple-A Louisville Bats tonight and Thursday (they’re off tomorrow) for the answer to who’s replacing Bailey.

Brad Penny & Kyle Lohse | Cardinals

St. Louis lost two-fifths of it’s rotation within the span of one turn, as Penny landed on the disabled list with a strained right lat and Kyle Lohse ran into a bout of “post-exercise inflammation.” The team is hopefully that Penny will only miss the minimum 15 days, but as Erik Manning notes, the Cardinals are overly optimistic when it comes to injuries. Righty P.J. Walters is all but guaranteed to make Thursday’s start at the Padres, and could use his knockout changeup to fashion a low-4.00’s ERA with decent strikeout totals during the interim.

Scott Olsen | Nationals

Olsen was pitching well before hitting the disabled list with shoulder inflammation, just the latest in a career full of shoulder problems. It’s extremely hard not to notice that Stephen Strasburg not only lines up perfectly to take Olsen’s spot on Saturday, but that he threw just 52 pitches in what could be considered a warm-up start last night. As much sense as it makes on the field, I have a hard time believing they would let him make his big league debut on the road (at San Diego) and miss out on all those extra ticket sales. Miguel Batista has been mentioned as a possible fill-in candidate, and in the name of all that is holy, stay away from him. Even with the lure of Petco, just avoid him at all costs.

After this weekend’s series with San Diego, the Nats head to Houston for a four game set, and Olsen’s spot would come up during the final game of that series. If you’re in Washington, pray for rain at some point in the next ten days. That would put Strasburg on target for a June 4th debut at home against the Reds, then five of seven potential starts before the All Star Break would be at home, with one of the away games right up the road in Baltimore. The Strasburg Era is very, very close my friends.

Here’s three players who could step right in and give your team a nice little boost…

Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | C | 4% owned

News broke late last night that Jorge Posada will miss the next 3-4 weeks (and probably more when you consider a minor league rehab assignment) with a hairline fracture in his foot after getting whacked with a foul ball on Sunday. He’s also missed time with a sore calf and a bruised knee (suffered on a HBP) in recent weeks, so backup Frankie Cervelli has actually started behind the plate in 11 of the Yanks’ last 14 games. He’s responded with a gaudy .413 wOBA and 17 RBI, though he’s certainly been helped by a .417 BABIP. ZiPS RoS projection calls for a .282 AVG the rest of the way, which has lots of value from a catcher. Perhaps most importantly, Cervelli now how some playing time certainty.

Chris Coghlan | Marlins | OF | 40%

The reigning NL Rookie of the Year had what we’ll call a rough go of it early this season, with a sub-.250 wOBA and zero extra base hits through his first 107 plate appearances. That also came with a sub-.200 BABIP, but over the last week-and-a-half Coghlan’s steadily picked up the pace. He’s 13 for his last 41 (.317) with two doubles, two homers, and two stolen bases for good measure. His BABIP has climbed up to a more reasonable .279, which is still a ways off from his .326 minor league mark, nevermind last season’s .365.

When trying to replace an injured (or underperforming player), I tend to forget about replacing what I’ll lose in counting stats and instead try to make sure my rate stats don’t take a hit. If Coghlan continues to regress back to the mean, he should provide a better than good AVG for your team.

Wade LeBlanc | Padres | SP | 25%

LeBlanc took Chris Young’s spot after he made his annual trip to the DL, and he’s been the best pitcher on the staff since. His 1.54 ERA is backed up by a 2.67 FIP and a 3.95 xFIP, and he’s not enjoying any extra special luck on balls in play with a .315 BABIP. LeBlanc’s LOB% is sky high at 87%, but an ERA in the low-4.00’s from here on out is very possible. His next three starts are at the Mariners, then at home against the Cardinals and Mets.

Ownership rates are bases on Yahoo! leagues.