Houston is trying to fix their problem. [/ lame]

The Astros shook up a bit of their roster earlier today, designating three mediocre at best players for assignment and replacing them with younger players that at the very lost offer hope. One of those players is catcher Jason Castro, the team’s consensus top prospect and the 10th overall pick in the 2008 draft.

Usually teams will look for stars when they’re picking in the top ten, but the general belief is that the Astros reached a bit and instead landed themselves a rock solid, every day backstop. There’s nothing wrong with that, productive every day catchers are damn valuable players, but when a (theoretically) rebuilding team has a pick that high, you’d like to see shoot for the moon a little more. But I digress.

As predicted, Castro has climbed the minor league ladder very quickly, shooting from High-A to Double-A in 2009 before starting this season in Triple-A. His combined batting line last year sat at .300/.380/.446, and he’s followed that up with a .265/.365/.355 (.301 BABIP) effort in 244 plate appearances this year. The data at MinorLeagueSplits.com suggests that Castro has been beating the ball into the ground with season (48.6 GB%, 17.9 LD%, 33.5 FB%), which certainly helps explain the sub-.100 ISO. Last year those totals were 37.9%, 17.3%, 44.5%, respectively.

CHONE projects a .249/.313/.351 batting line 382 plate appearances this year, which isn’t terrible for a rookie catcher. Castro’s a lefty batter that will be playing in a park better known for aiding righthanders, and there’s certainly no help to be found in the lineup around him (.276 team wOBA). The Astros have announced that it’s his job on a full-time basis, and playing time certainty counts for something. I wouldn’t expect Castro to drastically outproduce his CHONE projection, so the majority of his value comes in NL-only or deeper mixed leagues.

If you’re looking for a young and productive catcher, grab Carlos Santana if he’s still available in your league (owned in 45% of Yahoo! leagues). Dude’s got five doubles, two homers, four singles, seven walks, and three strikeouts in his nine games so far. Hard to argue with that. John Jaso (7% owned) is still hitting at a .291/.413/.425 clip and has been getting playing time at DH recently, so he’s another option as well. I’d target either before Castro, even in keeper leagues.

The Rockies were dealt a major blow this afternoon when they learned that homegrown star Troy Tulowitzki will miss the next six to eight weeks with a fractured wrist. Fantasy teams everywhere will feel Colorado’s pain, because few shortstops can match Tulo’s tremendous production.

There’s just no way to replace a player of this caliber, so the only thing you can do is hope to maintain the status quo. When dealing with a major injury like this, I usually just forget about the counting stats and make sure my replacement won’t kill my AVG and/or OBP. Shortstops that hit homers and drive in runs are rare anyway, so there’s no point in sacrificing rate stats while stabbing in the dark for counting ones that won’t come anyway.

Here’s three players on the waiver wire that could help you weather the storm…

Reid Brignac | Rays | 8% owned

Briggy Ball is playing regularly for Tampa with Jason Bartlett on the disabled list, and he’s quietly hit a respectable .297 with a .353 OBP going into Friday’s games. He’s enjoying some BABIP luck (.384), sure, but his minor league baseline isn’t too far off at .330 in exactly 2,700 plate appearances. There’s a regression on the horizon, but a .270 AVG with a .345 or so OBP is definitely possible for the next few weeks. (R) ZiPS isn’t as optimistic, calling for .252 AVG, .298 OBP the rest of the way. Brignac also has 2B eligibility.

Ian Desmond | Nationals | 24%

The man who displaced Cristian Guzman has been a valuable piece for the Nats based mostly on his defense (+4.6 UZR, +3 DRS), though his offense consists of an empty .268 AVG. However, he’s picked up the pace over the last few weeks, hitting .293 in his last 103 plate appearances prior to tonight’s 1-for-4. (R) ZiPS sees him maintaining that same .268 AVG the rest of the way, though he’s probably the safest bet for playing time among players mentioned in this post.

Jeff Keppinger | Astros | 16%

Seemingly the only source of offense for the punchless ‘Stros (seriously, a team .287 OBP), Keppinger has maintained his .286 AVG and .333 OBP basically all year long despite the lack of help. (R) ZiPS sees more of the same on the way, a .283 AVG and .335 OBP to be exact, which is more serviceable than greate. He also has 2B and 3B eligibility. Keppinger is playing every day for Houston, however they could go into sell mode at any moment, and he could find himself on a contender’s bench just like that.

Aside from direct replacement, you could also somewhat Tulo’s loss by improving another position. It’s easier said than done of course, but if you have some pitching depth to spare it can be done. The outfield is typically the easiest spot to accomplish this simply because there’s multiple spots.

Losing a player of Tulowitzki’s caliber is never easy, and there’s not much you can do other than tread water. Hopefully he’s back in six weeks rather than eight, and doesn’t need much time to shake off the rust.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

The White Sox boast a legitimate MVP candidate in Alex Rios (3.4 WAR) and the mammoth production of Paul Konerko (.417 wOBA), but their offense as a whole has largely underperformed. They have a .322 team wOBA, which tends to happen when you have seven players with sub-.320 OBP’s in the lineup as Chicago did yesterday.

Kenny Williams shook things up a little bit following last night’s win over Pittsburgh, replacing Jayson Nix and his .227 wOBA with hot shot third base prospect Dayan Viciedo. The Cuban defector signed a $10M big league deal before the 2009 season, though his performance last year was generally underwhelming (.280/.317/.391 in 540 Double-A plate appearances). Baseball America noted that Viciedo “can drive the ball to all fields and possesses tremendous opposite-field power” before the season, and he started to deliver on that promise with a .290/.329/.525 performance at Triple-A this season.

He’s a third baseman in name only, but he already has fantasy eligibility at that position in Yahoo! leagues and we couldn’t care less about how many balls he misplays. CHONE projected a .243/.273/.367 batting line with 11 HR and 59 RBI in 431 PA this year, which accurately reflects his unwillingness to work the count (just 26 unintentional walks in 795 pro plate appearances). Baseball America also noted that Viciedo “sits on fastballs to the point where he often looks helpless against offspeed pitches,” which will be his undoing in the bigs if he can’t adjust.

Regardless, Viciedo will run into one occasionally and hit the ball into the people even without the plate discipline, especially at U.S. Cellular Field (which has inflated homerun output by about 25% over the last three years). Homers impact four fantasy categories, so there’s definite value here. The White Sox aren’t likely to put many men on base in front of him, so the RBI total will likely lag a bit, but you should be in the clear as long as you’re not targeting him as an every day third base solution. Chances are Viciedo will pick up first base eligibility at some point, and a little extra flexibility is always appreciated.

Part of me gets the Jeff Francoeur vibe here, meaning that Viciedo will tear things up for a few weeks, then fall back to Earth once the book gets out how to pitch him. Again, I have no evidence of this, but it always seems like these extreme plate indiscipline guys initially perform well before dropping off. Perhaps it’s confirmation bias, I don’t know. Either way, Viciedo can provide a little pop at a bench spot or as an injury fill in, but not much more beyond that.

An arm and a pair of legs for your fantasy squad…

Trevor Cahill | SP | Athletics | 22% owned

The A’s were dealt a big but not totally unsurprising blow when hip trouble ended Justin Duchscherer’s season, but Cahill has stepped right in and performed admirably. He’s backed off his four-seamer in favor of more two-seamers and curveballs this year, which has helped him generate more ground balls (52.5% in ’10, 47.8% in ’09) and keep lefties in check (4.27 xFIP vs. LHB in ’10, 5.31 in ’09).

The strikeouts aren’t there (5.14 K/9) and xFIP (4.35) and BABIP (.246) suggest Cahill’s 3.23 ERA and 1.17 WHIP are destined for regression, but he should be able to sustain a low-4.00’s ERA over the long haul ((R) ZiPS projects a 4.70 ERA, for what it’s worth). After facing the Cardinals in St. Louis on Sunday, Cahill’s next two outings will come at home against the Pirates and in Cleveland.

Julio Borbon | OF | Rangers | 29%

Borbon’s fantasy value lies in his steals, and after swiping 19 bags in 49 games last year, fantasy owners were drooling at the potential of adding 60+ steals their to ledger. ZiPS and CHONE projected 30 and 34 steals respectively, but if there’s any stat that’s easy to outperform the projections, it’s stolen bases.

Borbon opened the season by hitting just .226/.243/.263 (.229 wOBA by my calculation) with six steals in the team’s first 48 games, but he’s gone off with the bat since late May. In Texas’ last 17 games, Borbon has hit .434/.446/.585 (.452 wOBA), reclaiming an everyday job and serving as the second leadoff man from the nine-spot in the lineup. The steals still aren’t there, just two for six during that span, but those can home at any time and without warning. (R) ZiPS is holding out hope for 22 SB during the rest of the season, on par with guys like Brett Gardner, Rajai Davis, and teammate Elvis Andrus.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

With Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Stanton, Buster Posey, Neftali Feliz, and Carlos Santana now in the big leagues, just four of Marc’s preseason top ten prospects are left in the minors leagues. In all likelihood, the next mega-prospect to get the call will be Pedro Alvarez of the Pirates, and there are indications that he will join the team as soon as tomorrow.

If you’re reading this site, you’re no doubt familiar with Mr. Alvarez and what he can bring to the table. Baseball America describes him as having “tremendous raw power to all fields” with “good pitch-recognition skills,” but notes “can be caught off balance by breaking balls from lefthanders.” That last part is the biggest concern, because he’ll be playing in a division with Jaime Garcia, Ted Lilly, Manny Parra, Chris Narveson, Wandy Rodriguez, and Randy Wolf. Not exactly an awe-inspiring collection of southpaws, but enough that you’ll need a decent platoon partner.

Alvarez is hitting .280 with a stout .260 ISO in Triple-A this year, which are right in line with his career totals of .286 and .251, respectively. MinorLeagueSplits.com indicates a reverse split in a limited sample this year (1.073 OPS vs. LHP, .869 vs. RHB), but his career totals (.810 OPS vs. LHP, .971 vs. RHP) reflect Baseball America’s scouting report. Alvarez can swing and miss with the best of them, striking out in close to 28% of his minor league plate appearances.

CHONE projected a .231/.299/.400 batting line with 16 HR and 54 RBI in 403 plate appearances before the season, and that seems very reasonable if the Bucs are going to run him out there every day, lefthander or otherwise. If they platoon him, I’d expect something more along the lines of .250/.330/.450, though that’s nothing more than a hunch. I am concerned about all the strikeouts, because bush league strikeout totals do have some predictive value; Chris Davis struck out in close to 27% of his minor league at-bats, for example.

Even if it doesn’t happen tomorrow, the Pirates will inevitably call Alvarez up at some point this month. Pittsburgh has a dreadful offense (team .297 wOBA), so he won’t get much help and the RBI opportunities will be few are far between. The homerun potential alone makes him a worthy fantasy add, even moreso in deeper leagues. You’ll take a bit of a hit in AVG, so make sure you can mitigate at some other spots. Chances are Alvarez will have better trade value than true worth later in the summer based on hype and name recognition alone.

Let’s round up the latest rotation ins-and-outs from around the league…

Jake Arrieta | Orioles | 2% owned

The O’s turned to one of their top prospects last week, and Arrieta rewarded them with a solid effort and a win against the Yankees. I don’t like his long-term outlook as much as I like his teammate Brian Matusz’s, but I think Arrieta can best his performance this year. He should be good for a low-to-mid-4.00’s ERA with close to 7.50 K/9 the rest of the way, so there’s value here in an AL-only or deep mixed leagues.

Matt Harrison | Rangers | 0%

Rich Harden hit the DL with a strained glute, which is fitting because opponents have been kicking it all year. Harrison is the leading candidate to fill in for him (start would be Saturday), but the team acknowledged that could change if they need him in relief before then. He’s posted a 4.97 ERA (4.65 xFIP) in six starts and three relief appearances this year, and (R) ZiPS projects a hideous 5.74 ERA with just 5.40 K/9 the rest of the way. Even with Saturday’s start coming at Houston, he’s not worth a roster spot. None of the other candidates sound appetizing either.

Jesse Litsch | Blue Jays | 1%

After missing most of last season with Tommy John surgery, Litsch returned to the mound last week with a pair of mediocre-at-best outings against the Tigers and Twins. He massively outperformed a dreadful strikeout rate in 2007 (3.81 ERA, 5.09 xFIP, 4.05 K/9), and we can’t expect that luck to continue after elbow surgery since command is usually the last thing to come back. Despite the sexy past ERA’s, I wouldn’t risk it even in deep leagues.

Brad Lincoln | Pirates | 2%

David Golebiewski already introduced us to Lincoln last week, so I’ll just send you that way. I guess all I have to add is that yes, he still has a job.

Joe Martinez | Giants | 0%

Martinez takes the place of the injured and ineffective Todd Wellemeyer, and will start on Tuesday at home against Baltimore. He owns a ~3.41 FIP in Triple-A this year, aided by a stellar 58.5% GB%. CHONE projected a 5.27 ERA in 21 starts before the season, though it doesn’t look like he’ll pick up that much playing time. I like him as a sneaky spot starter against the lowly O’s, but not much beyond that.

Daisuke Matsuzaka | Red Sox | 41%

Dice-K came down with a forearm injury during warm ups on Saturday and was immediately placed on the DL just to get another arm for the bullpen. The injury isn’t believed to be serious and Matsuzaka should be back as soon as he’s eligible to be activated on the 23rd, in which case he’d only miss once start (because of the off day today). The Red Sox haven’t announced who will replace him on Saturday, but Michael Bowden (0% owned) lines up to start that day down in Triple-A. He’s got a ~5.58 FIP (6.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9) in Pawtucket this year, and the only way I’d start him (against the Dodgers at Fenway) is if you’re so far behind in the ERA and WHIP categories that you’re just gunning for W and K at the end of the week.

Ownership rates on based on Yahoo! leagues.

Unless you’re in a league that counts holds (I’ll admit, SV+HLD is one of my favorite fantasy stat categories) there’s not too many reasons to carry a setup man on your roster. Saves are always available in free agency, so there’s not really a need to waste a roster spot on a fungible middle relievers on your roster with an eye towards the future. That doesn’t mean there aren’t some non-closer relievers out there worth that roster spot, though.

Let’s take Michael Wuertz for example. Last year he struck out 102 batters while putting just 75 men on base and allowing 23 runs to cross the plate in 78.2 IP (2.63 ERA, 0.95 WHIP). If you had combined him with a mid-range starter, say Jonathan Sanchez, you would have ended up with 242 IP of 3.72 ERA, 1.23 WHIP pitching with 279 strikeouts. That’s not too far off from what Justin Verlander did last year, a top tier fantasy starter.

Of course, you’re using two roster spots to replicate the production of one, but this late in the season it gets tougher and tougher to find bargains. Everyone knows about Tyler Clippard and his league leading eight (vulture) wins (he’s owned in 66% of leagues), but here’s five other non-closer relievers worth a spot in a standard 5×5, 12-team league…

Daniel Bard | Red Sox | 22% owned

Last night’s blown save notwithstanding, Bard has been a workhorse out of Terry Francona’s bullpen in the early going. He’s appeared in exactly half of Boston’s 62 games, posting a 2.48 ERA (3.49 xFIP) with 9.64 K/9 and a 0.95 WHIP. Just six strikeouts behind starter John Lackey (who’s owned in 83% of leagues), Bard’s upper 90’s gas is sure to see plenty of action this summer as the Red Sox fight for supremacy in the AL East.

Luke Gregerson | Padres | 21%

Gregerson really has been a marvel for San Diego since coming over from St. Louis in the Khalil Greene trade last offseason, racking up 1.8 WAR in 75 IP with 93 strikeouts due to his slider heavy approach in 2009. He’s been even better this year, already compiling 1.4 WAR with 39 strikeouts in 32.1 IP, walking just one batter unintentionally. One! As you could imagine, Gregerson’s ERA is astronomically low (1.39) despite a 63.5% LOB%, and FIP (1.28), xFIP (2.02) and tRA (1.00) all back it up.

Arguably the most dominant reliever in baseball this year, Gregerson definitely has fantasy value since he’ll give you about four innings of damn near perfection per week.

Sean Marshall | Cubs | 22%

The Cubbies have been desperate for righthanded relief help, but Marshall’s got it locked down from the left side. Lou Piniella uses him as more than just a LOOGY, and why not? His strikeout rate is through the roof (11.27 K/9), the walks are low (2.67 BB/9) and so is the ERA (1.78), FIP (1.59), xFIP (2.94), and tRA (2.23).

Evan Meek | Pirates | 20%

Pittsburgh made a little noise this winter by signing a few veteran relievers to big league deals, but Meek has been their most valuable bullpener all season. His microscopic ERA (0.76) is propped up by an 87.4% LOB%, but batters have been unable to make solid contact off him, leading to just 21 hits allowed and a 0.81 WHIP in 35.2 IP. Meek has done most of the heavy lifting for the Buccos while the veteran guys get the saves and the glore, but rate stats that low and strikeouts that high (8.33 K/9) can definitely help mitigate those inevitable bad outings by a fantasy starter each week.

Joel Zumaya | Tigers | 19%

After battling injury for most of the last three years, Zumaya has finally been able to comeback and stay on the mound for Jim Leyland, amazingly with his triple-digit fastball still intact. Leyland’s been using him for multiple inning stints on occasion, and Zumaya’s rewarded his faith with 8.90 K/9, a 1.70 ERA (3.50 xFIP), and 1.02 WHIP. He has yet to allow a homer, thanks in part to luck, but also thanks to spacious Comerica Park. Zumaya’s only going to see more and more work as the summer progresses and Detroit’s games start to mean a little more.

Couple other relievers to keep in mind: Clay Hensley of the Marlins and Mike Adams of the Padres.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Marlins’ starter Ricky Nolasco was a trendy sleeper pick among the stathead crowd coming into the season … well, sleeper makes him sounds like a big secret. I suppose he was already a well known guy, but not everyone looked past the 5.06 ERA and saw the gaudy peripheral stats that suggested damn near ace-level production. Semantics.

Anyway, Nolasco is producing almost exactly as we expected him to this season. His walks are super low (1.82 BB/9), he’s generating close to 40% ground balls (39.2%, to be exact), just about 11% of his fly balls are leaving the yard, and his strand rate is right around the league average following last season’s unfathomably low 61.0% LOB%. All that is nice, but there’s one big red flag here: he’s not striking out nearly as many batters.

After a studly 9.49 K/9 last year (7.88 in 2008), Nolasco is down basically three full strikeouts to 6.54 K/9 this year. Let’s cut right to the chase and dig into the Plate Discipline stats (click for larger)…

You can see that Nolasco isn’t generating as many swings and misses this season, which is to be expected with such a dramatic drop in strikeout rate. His O-Contact% has taken an extreme jump up to 70.1% this year, so pitches that were being swung through last year are being put in play or fouled off this year. Make sure to note that the league as a whole is not only swinging at more pitches out of the zone this year, but also making more contact with them as well. Nolasco’s jump in O-Contact% is still extreme even considering the league-wide change.

Pitch Type Values tell us that Nolasco’s fastball has been a bit more effective this year while his slider has been slightly more ineffective, though his split-finger fastball has gone from 1.95 runs above average last year (per 100 thrown) to 1.05 runs below average this year. A drop of three runs per 100 pitches is significant, and indicates that the pitch might be the root of Nolasco’s strikeout problems.

The righty’s fastball velocity is down exactly one mile an hour to 90.5 while the splitter is down close to three miles an hour to 84.9, so perhaps there’s too much separation between the pitches. The reduced velocity has altered the movement of the pitch, certainly not unexpected. It’s lost close to five inches of horizontal movement and close to an inch and a half of vertical falling off the tableness (looking at some other splitters from around the league, it doesn’t appear to be a calibration issue, though that always remains a possibility). Nolasco’s splitter still features some fade and sink, but not nearly as much as it did a year ago.

Unsurprisingly, he throws the pitch primarily in two strike counts, so it’s possible the slower, straighter version of his splitter isn’t getting it done. I don’t have to tell you that correlation =/= causation, so this is far from proof. Just a theory. Whatever’s going on, Nolasco’s strikeout rate has dropped by a third, and his overall performance has suffered as a result.

(R) ZiPS calls for a 131 IP of 4.26 ERA (3.69 FIP) and 7.97 K/9 ball the rest of the way, so it sees an improvement coming. He still has trade value based on reputation alone, but for now it might be best to sit him against teams that do an especially good job of getting the bat on the ball. I don’t recommend dropping him outright unless you’re in an especially shallow league.

Here’s one position player and one pitcher that should be available on waivers and could provide a boost to your team…

Angel Pagan | OF | Mets | 29% owned

It’s hard to believe that Gary Matthews Jr. not only started in centerfield on Opening Day for the Amazin’s, but that he started four of the team’s first six games. He’s since been exiled to DFAville, all made possible by Pagan’s emergence as an All Star level centerfielder. His .354 wOBA and +6.9 UZR are good for 2.1 WAR after 58 team games, and (R) ZiPS projects more of the same the rest of the way, a .354 wOBA with ten steals.

Carlos Beltran has been playing in games down in Extended Spring Training as he rehabs from knee surgery, but it’ll be impossible to justify sitting Pagan when he does return, even with Jeff Francoeur’s recent two week tear. Pagan offers batting average and a decent amount of steals, and his new lineup spot (second) should lead to some more runs scored as well.

Felipe Paulino | SP | Astros | 3%

One thing you’re not going to get with Astros’ pitchers is wins, but their starters can still help you out in other categories. The hard-throwing Paulino – only Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Verlander top his 95.5 mph heater – sports a rock solid 3.82 ERA even though he’s stranded less than 65% of the runners he’s allowed to reach base. Once that regresses to the 71.8% league average, Paulino’s looking at an ERA much closer to his FIP (3.28) and tRA (3.18).

As hard throwers tend to do, Paulino walks a ton of guys (4.54 BB/9) and has a pedestrian WHIP (1.38), but his strikeout rate (8.12 K/9) is pretty darn good. (R) ZiPS isn’t kind here, seeing a 5.25 ERA (4.35 FIP) with a slight dip to 7.88 K/9 the rest of the way. Paulino’s next start comes in Kansas City next week, so if nothing else he’s should offer value for one more start.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

As soon as Jeff Karstens steps on the mound tonight, he’ll become the answer to a trivia question. That question, of course, asks who the opposing starter was when Stephen Strasburg made his big league debut.

It took two months, but the Nationals will finally turn the first overall pick in the 2009 draft loose on National League lineups this evening, starting with Karstens and the Pirates. He’s already owned in 87% of Yahoo! leagues, so there’s no chance of making a shrewd waiver grab now, but you knew that already. Instead, let’s focus on what Strasburg could provide fantasy owners the rest of the season.

ZiPS projects 20 starts with a 4.18 ERA and a rather gaudy 113/36 K/BB ratio in 114 IP (h/t BBTF), putting him somewhere around a 3.66 FIP. Looking at (R) ZiPS for some perspective, that projection puts Strasburg on par with what pitchers like Josh Beckett (he’s hurt though), Jered Weaver, and Roy Oswalt are predicted to do the rest of the year, though with a few more strikeouts. That’s a pretty significant pickup in the middle of June, but we’ve always got to watch out for innings limits when it comes to young pitchers.

According to Adam Kilgore, the Nats’ plan is for their prized prospect to throw about 150-160 IP total this season, between the majors and minors. He’s already thrown 55.1 glorious frames in the minors (seriously, look at these numbers), so assuming the high end of Kilgore’s range, we’re looking at 104.2 IP from Strasburg the rest of the way. That’s basically two fewer starts than what ZiPS projects.

Chances are, those two missing starts will come in September, which is fantasy crunch time. I think we all expect the Nats to continue to fall out of the race, so there wouldn’t be much pressure to keep running Strasburg out there late in the year. Losing what should be one of your three best starters in the fantasy playoffs is a rather massive hit; it’s a little like Peyton Manning in fantasy football. You can’t win a championship with the guy because he’s always on the bench resting in Week 17.

Strasburg’s going to provide a ton of value through the summer, but make sure you keep an eye on his innings. Once he approaches 80 or so big league innings, it might not be the worst thing in the world to cut bait and trade him. Most trade deadlines are set in mid-August, which should give you plenty of time to see where his workload sits. You’ll presumably get a valuable piece in return, one that could help you more down the stretch than Strasburg on a leash would. If you’re in a keeper league, forget about this option obviously.

Strasburg should step right in and be a rock solid fantasy starter tonight, but there’s nothing wrong with using the hype to your benefit if you happen to own him. Start him all summer, and then when the Nats are ready to start taking it easy on him, deal him for something else of value.