Author Archive

Surviving the V-Mart Injury

As if the Red Sox didn’t have enough injury issues with Josh Beckett, Dustin Pedroia, and basically their entire outfield on the disabled list, they lost Victor Martinez to a fractured thumb over the weekend. A top tier fantasy catcher is impossible to replace, so hopefully he’ll be back after the required 15 days and all you V-Mart owners won’t have to suffer too long.

In the meantime, here’s a few backstops you can find on the waiver wire to help keep your head above water, starting with Martinez’s replacement…

Jason Varitek | Red Sox | 6% owned

Varitek has a very strange stat line this season. He has only 23 hits in 98 PA (.258 AVG), but he’s got seven homers and a .303 ISO. Those seven bombs come with only 14 RBI too. Yeah, it’s just small sample size noise, but it’s still kinda funny. (R) ZiPS projects a .227 AVG with a .178 ISO, and realistically that’s about the best you can hope for out of Varitek for the next two weeks or so.

Ronny Paulino | Marlins | 16%

Very quietly, Paulino has posted a respectable .343 wOBA this season, though he’s hit .322/.373/.435 in his last 126 plate appearances. He’s an absolute horse behind the dish, perhaps to the point that you have to worry about him turning into a pumpkin in the second half. Paulino’s started the team’s last 19 (!!!) games, though he did have the benefit of three off days during that stretch. (R) ZiPS sees a regression back to .274/.332/.397 the rest of the way, but at least he won’t kill you in AVG during V-Mart’s absence.

John Jaso | Rays | 6%

Tampa has been platooning Jaso with Kelly Shoppach ever since they decided to send Dioner Navarro to the minors, and six of Tampa’s next seven games come against righthanded pitchers. Jaso is a must own in OBP leagues (.398 OBP), but his .271 AVG and 25 RBI still have value elsewhere. I’m a sucker for guys who walk more than they strikeout, though (R) ZiPS seems him falling to .269/.354/.368 the rest of the way.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.


Promotion Watch: Brett Wallace

It’s not common to see a highly regarded prospect traded twice less than two years after being drafted, but that’s exactly what happened to now Blue Jays’ farmhand Brett Wallace. As you know, the Cardinals shipped him to Oakland in last year’s Matt Holliday deal, and they turned around and flipped him to Toronto in the third leg of the Roy Halladay trade this winter. Regardless of where he’s been playing, Wallace has done what he’s always done: flat out rake.

After hitting a combined .293/.367/.455 with 20 homers and 26 doubles across two levels and three teams last season, Wallace is mashing to the tune of .301/.363/.507 for Toronto’s Triple-A affiliate this year. With 14 homers and 20 doubles, he’s not far off from last season’s totals in 261 fewer plate appearances. It’s worth noting that the Pacific Coast League is a hitter friendly environment in general, especially where Wallace is playing in Las Vegas. MinorLeagueSplits.com has his park adjusted triple-slash line at .288/.351/.484, still outstanding.

The bat has never been an issue with Wallace. Baseball America said he “has outstanding bat control and knows how to get in favorable counts where he can do the most damage, allowing him to project for 20 homers per year despite not having outstanding raw power” when they named him the game’s 27th best prospect before the season. The question has been about position ever since he played at Arizona State, though the move to Toronto has cleared that picture up. After years of trying to fake it at third, Wallace has played first base exclusively since the trade (save for the occasional DH assignment) and figures to do so in the long run.

The good news is that Wallace retains 3B eligibility in Yahoo! leagues, where he’s owned in just 1% of leagues. Obviously he hasn’t been called up yet, so anyone that does own him is likely in a deep keeper league looking towards the future. The Blue Jays are slowly fading out of contention in the ultra-competitive AL East, having gone 11-15 this month and 13-20 dating back to May 20th. Incumbent first baseman Lyle Overbay is having a simply dreadful year, checking in at -0.1 WAR through the team’s first 77 games. He’s scheduled to become a free agent after the season, so Toronto could simply cut bait and designate Overbay for assignment if they don’t get lucky and find a trade partner infatuated with name recognition. Point is, the first base job can open up for Wallace at any time, especially now that we’re past all the service time milestones and the team has basically acquired another year of cost control.

CHONE predicted a .252/.306/.401 batting line with 16 doubles and 23 homers in 489 at-bats for Wallace this year, but he’s obviously not going to meet that playing time projection. The triple-slash projection isn’t unreasonable for a rookie in a division packed to the gills with power pitching, but that doesn’t make Wallace any less of a fantasy option, especially with 3B eligibility. He’s a must have in a keeper league, and definitely has value for the rest of 2010 in any league assuming a late-July promotion (at the latest).


Starting Pitchers: June 28th

Updates on four rotation spots, all in the NL…

Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 87% owned

Just off a groin strain induced DL stint, Billingsley comes back just in time to face the Giants in San Francisco tonight. He was dealing with some bad BABIP (.332) and strand rate (69.2%) luck prior to going on the shelf, but (R) ZiPS projects a 3.41 ERA (3.38 FIP) with just shy of a strikeout per inning the rest of the way. After tonight, he lines up to start in Arizona and at home against the Cubs before All Star break.

Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 8%

The allure of top prospects can be too much to pass up at times. Bumgarner’s velocity mysteriously disappeared last season and really hasn’t returned yet, and to no surprise he’s yet to return to the 9.00 K/9 range once predicted for him. He held his own against the Red Sox in a losing cause yesterday (7 IP, 4 ER), but it’s hard to predict anything more than a mid-4.00’s ERA the rest of the way unless he bumps up the 6.4 K/9 he showed in Triple-A this season. His three starts before the break come at the Rockies, at Milwaukee, and at the Nationals.

Tom Gorzelanny | Cubs | 4%

Not only is Carlos Zambrano suspended indefinitely, but he’s headed back to the bullpen whenever he does return. Gorzelanny has pitched surprisingly well this season after some ugly years in Pittsburgh, posting a 3.41 ERA (3.82 xFIP) with more than a strikeout per inning. (R) ZiPS unsurprisingly sees a slight step back the rest of the way, but there’s no shame in having a 4.33 ERA (4.02 FIP), 7.75 K/9 pitcher on your staff. Gorz’s final three starts before the break comes against his former team, then at the D-Backs and at the Dodgers.

Bud Norris | Astros | 3%

Norris hit the DL with some biceps tendinitis, but returns to face the Brew Crew in Milwaukee tonight. His ERA was an unsightly 6.80 before the injury, but his peripherals were stellar: 4.03 xFIP, 11.13 K/9. Once his .400 BABIP and 58.9% LOB% regress back to normalcy, you’d got yourself a rock solid fantasy starter, albeit without many wins. (R) ZiPS predicts a 4.83 ERA (4.25 FIP), 8.61 K/9 the rest of the way, and after tonight he’ll start in San Diego and at home against the Cardinals before the break.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.


The Pedroia Injury

The Red Sox placed Dustin Pedroia on the disabled list with a fracture in his foot today, though the severity is unknown and there’s no timetable for his return. He suffered the injury last night when he fouled a ball off his right instep, though he managed to stay in for one more pitch (ball four) before limping off.

With a .382 wOBA and 12 homers in 73 games, Pedroia was one of the three best fantasy second baseman, so his absence is a major loss to more than just the Red Sox. Like I said when we looked at some fill-ins for Troy Tulowitzki, your best bet is too make sure that you don’t take a hit in the AVG and OBP departments, because there’s basically no way to replace the counting stats at this time of the season. Here’s three players that could lend a hand…

Kevin Frandsen | Angels | 4% owned

With infielders dropping like flies due to injuries and Brandon Wood still doing his best to claim the title of worst player in baseball, the Angels have turned to Frandsen this month, and he’s produced in a big way. He’s hitting .333/.371/.439 with seven doubles (all in his last ten games) in June, playing every day at the hot corner. (R) ZiPS projects a .281 AVG (.338 OBP) the rest of the way, mostly because his .373 BABIP will likely regress as the season goes on. Frandsen is eligible at 2B, 3B, and SS.

Orlando Hudson | Twins | 30%

Hudson is having a typical year for him, hitting in the .280’s (.281, to be exact) with an OBP in the .350’s (.352), though he’s scoring a boatload of runs (42) batting in front of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Co. (R) ZiPS projects more of the same going forward, and you know he’ll play every day as long as his wrist holds up.

Freddy Sanchez | Giants | 20%

Sanchez came off the disabled list in mid May, and he’s been doing his usual high AVG (.302), low power (.079 ISO) act since. (R) ZiPS predicts a .299 AVG going forward, and there’s no reason to expect anything more than that. As long as Sanchez’s knee doesn’t begin to act up, he’ll be in the lineup every day for San Francisco.

Replacement second baseman are a sorry lot, so make sure you keep your eyes open. If someone gets hot for a week, don’t hesitate to grab him and ride it out while Pedroia’s on the DL.


The Versatile Michael Cuddyer

Maybe it’s just me, but I’m a sucker for flexibility. I love players with multi-position eligibility, so needless to say I’m always on the look-out for guys that might change positions. Catchers that move out from behind the plate are the classic example, and who can forget fantasy owners drooling at the possibility of Albert Pujols picking up 2B eligibility after this game in 2008? Alas, it was not meant to be.

With their third basemen putting up just a .271 wOBA this season, the Twins have started Michael Cuddyer at the hot corner fives times in the last week or so (six counting today). That’s good enough for him to pick up 3B eligibility in most leagues. He even started a game at 2B last month, but it doesn’t look like we’ll get that lucky. When the season began, he was eligible at 1B/OF, two spots with enough depth and generally low priority.

Cuddyer was mid-to-late round revelation last season, clubbing a career high 32 homers, driving in 94 runs, and scoring 93 more. He hasn’t been able to replicate that level of performance this year unsurprisingly, with just seven homers and 33 RBI in the team’s first 73 games. (R) ZiPS calls for a nice little second half: .271/.341/.462 with ten homers and 41 RBI, though it’s not really a standout performance from an outfielder or (especially) a first baseman. At third though, that’s a solid option.

Looking at the (R) ZiPS projections, I count 44 outfielders projected to hit double digit homers through the end of the season, 25 first baseman, and just 13 third baseman. Cuddyer makes 14. The third base position is surprisingly mediocre beyond the top level guys, so adding another player to that mix for the rest of the season is a boost. If you’re dealing with injury or ineffectiveness (Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins come to mind), or just plain old need some depth, Cuddyer’s a solid get now. If you already own him (77% owned in Yahoo! leagues), his value just went up.


Rays Finally Free Matt Joyce

Acquired before the 2009 season for Edwin Jackson, Matt Joyce has accumulated just 37 PA with the Rays despite posting a .355 wOBA in 277 PA with the Tigers the year before the trade. Part of that has been because of an elbow issue this season, and part of it has to do with his generally underwhelming big league performance last year (.329 wOBA).

The 25-year-old Joyce has crushed Triple-A pitching in the interim, hitting .273/.373/.482 with 35 doubles, 16 homers, and 14 steals in 493 plate appearances last year. Once he got over the elbow woes, he put up a stout .314/.458/.545 batting line in just over a month’s worth of games in the bush leagues. Carl Crawford’s sore shoulder necessitated the addition of another outfielder, so up came Joyce and down went the supremely unproductive Dioner Navarro (.265 wOBA since the start of ’09).

CHONE projected a rather pedestrian .239/.325/.422 batting line from Joyce in 393 AB before the season, though that came with 15 homers and five steals. It’s not too difficult to see him outperforming that AVG, and the bat really isn’t the question. The playing time is.

Tampa enjoys perhaps more roster flexibility than any other team. Ben Zobrist can quite literally play anywhere. Willy Aybar has spent a bunch of time at DH this year, but he can handle the three non-shortstop infield positions with aplomb. Reid Brignac plays both middle infield spots, ditto Sean Rodriguez. The latter has also spent a bunch of time in centerfield this year. Depending on who’s banged up or who the opposing starter is or who’s swinging the bat well, Joe Maddon has plenty of options when filling out his lineup card.

Joyce figures to get regular at-bats for the time being, though that depends entirely on the severity of Crawford’s injury. Lefty masher Gabe Kapler is on the shelf with a hip issue, making a straight platoon unlikely for now. Hank Blalock has been having a devil of a time since being called up (.306 wOBA), so there’s a chance Joyce could steal some at-bats from him, especially with the three catcher situation dissolved and the need for one of John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach to be on the bench as the backup.

I definitely like Joyce for fantasy purposes given his potential for double digit homers and double digit steals (over a full season), even more so in OBP leagues. There are definitely worse options over there for 4th OF/2nd UTIL spots, and you know if Joyce produces, Maddon will give him playing time even after Crawford and Kapler return. The playing time isn’t really a concern in that he might be benched for weeks at a time, it’s just unpredictable. That could all be sorted out by next week, though. I love Joyce in AL only leagues and deep mixed leagues, though you can afford to wait a bit before pouncing in a normal 12-teamer. He’s available in pretty much every Yahoo! league, at the moment.


Waiver Wire: June 24th

Two players with low ownership rates that might want to consider picking up…

Jason Hammel | Rockies | SP | 24% owned

Hammel has been quite the find for the Rockies, who acquired him last year from the Rays and watched him post a 3.81 xFIP in 176.1 IP. After a rocky (pun intended) start to the 2010 season, Hammel settled down this month and has been downright fantastic. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last three starts, and ever since a May 21st drubbing at the hands of the Royals, Hammel has a 0.78 ERA and has held opponents to a .244/.304/.283 batting line against. His strikeout rate has steadily climbed to 6.99 K/9 over the last few years, and (R) ZiPS sees a 4.39 ERA and 6.32 K/9 the rest of the way.

You probably don’t have time to grab him into time for tonight’s start against the Red Sox, though you’d probably want to sit him anyway. He’s lined up to finish off the first half with assignments in San Diego, at home against the Giants, and then at home against the Padres. Yes please.

Justin Smoak | Rangers | 1B | 15%

Brian advised you to grab Smoak at the end of last month, noting that his BABIP and LD% indicated a surge was coming. Well, Brian absolutely nailed it, as Smoak has hit to the tune of a .400 wOBA this month, driving in 20 runs and scoring 14 more as part of Texas’ June assault on pitching. His BABIP (.254) is still in the process of correcting itself, so there’s hope that this torrid stretch will continue through the break.

Luckily there’s still a good chance that Smoak is available in your league, and he’ll likely settle in with a .280 AVG and a .160 ISO or so the rest of the way.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.


Tigers Call On Oliver

With Rick Porcello demoted to Triple-A, the Tigers are turning to another young arm to fill his spot this week, 2009 second round pick Andy Oliver. You may or may not know about Oliver’s plight with the NCAA, which essentially disqualified him from playing at Oklahoma State after he used an agent to negotiate a contract with the Twins when they drafted him out of high school in 2006. All of that is behind him now, and just 14 starts into his professional career, he’s a big leaguer.

Aggressive promotions and the Tigers are nothing new. Aside from Porcello, remember that Justin Verlander make a pair of July starts in 2005, barely more than a year after they made him the second overall pick in the 2004 draft. He then joined the rotation full-time in 2006. Clearly, the team will not hesitate pushing a young player if they believe he’s the best option.

Baseball America rated Oliver as the team’s fourth best prospect coming into the season, noting that he pitches “at 92-94 mph and occasionally reaching the upper 90s,” but his array of secondary pitches (two-seamer, slider/cutter, curveball) all need work. Power lefties are a rare breed, hence the high draft selection and $1.495M signing bonus.

Assigned to Double-A to begin 2010, Oliver has has performed admirably in his young pro career, holding opponents to a .253 AVG against (lefties .242), striking out 8.1 men per nine and limiting the walks to just 2.9 per. MinorLeagueSplits.com has him at 39.3% ground balls, 16.3% line drives, 38.5% fly balls, and what strikes me as an absurdly high percentage of infield flies at 19.1%. Nothing too out of the ordinary there, a rock solid performance. If you want to nitpick, Oliver is perhaps giving up a few more homers (0.81 HR/9) than you’d like to see from a pitcher with his stuff and pedigree, but that’s not an awful rate.

The Tigers are marching him out there against the lefty heavy Braves on Friday, though they are a good fastball hitting team (0.59 wFB/C, fourth best in baseball). Chances are this is just a one or two start cameo, similar to Verlander half a decade ago, but I like the matchup this week. Granted, Atlanta looks as if they’ll never lose again, but they’ve never seen Oliver before and his stuff is good enough that smoke and mirrors won’t be needed. It’s a risky play, but the good news is that you have three more days to see what kind of shape your pitching is in before deciding whether to go for it or not. If you can risk some ERA and WHIP in favor of strikeouts and a possible win, then I see be bold and go for it.


Recent Promotion: Daniel Nava

Okay, it’s not that recent of a promotion anymore, but Nava is still new enough to the bigs that he’s owned in just 2% of Yahoo! leagues despite a rather splashy debut. The Red Sox have been without Jacoby Ellsbury basically all year because of a rib issue, Mike Cameron is playing through an abdominal tear, and J.D. Drew is now battling a hamstring issue (though he should be back this week). Needless to say, playing time in Boston’s outfield is plentiful at the moment for Mr. Nava, who has started every single game in leftfield since being called up on the 12th.

Through 30 plate appearances, the former independent leaguer is hitting a cool .370/.433/.667 (.455 wOBA) with five doubles, five runs scored and seven driven in. Even if you take away that storybook first pitch grand slam, he’s still batting a robust .346/.414/.577. His minor league track record tells you the guy can flat out hit, so this isn’t coming out of nowhere. Nava’s career minor league batting line sits at .342/.434/.545 in close to 1,200 plate appearances, and he hit .294/.364/.492 in 220 Triple-A plate appearances before taking Fenway by storm.

How is he getting done? Well, 52.6% of the balls he’s put in play have been airborne and a whole bunch of those balls are dropping in for hits, 47.4% to be exact. Nava had much more reasonable rates of 41.8% fly balls and a (still high) .389 BABIP in the minors according to the great MinorLeagueSplits.com. It’s also worth noting that the switch hitter performed much better against righthanders in the bush leagues, but so far has come to the plate just four times against southpaws in the majors. Unless the baseball gods smile down on Nava like they have been for seemingly his entire career, a regression to normalcy is coming.

That said, there’s no reason we can’t ride out Nava’s hot streak, especially in an AL-only or deeper mixed league. He’s likely to keep playing every day, but if you do take the plunge and pick him up, make sure you watch the matchups. Boston has dates with a pair of good lefthanders this week (Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito), so you’re going to have to pick your spots. CHONE predicted a .256/.325/.361 batting line before the season, but I can definitely see him maintaining a .280-ish AVG with doubles power going forward. Given Boston’s lineup, the RBI and run scoring opportunities should be plentiful.


Starting Pitchers: June 21st

It’s a relatively slow week for starting pitchers with fantasy value, though the Giants will skip Joe Martinez the next time through the rotation, pushing their big three up a day (all on normal rest). Here’s some other notes…

Carlos Carrasco & Aaron Laffey | Indians | both 0% owned

The Indians finally had enough of David Huff’s 6.40 ERA (5.70 xFIP), sending the southpaw down to Triple-A. They have yet to announce who will take his spot in the rotation, though they will announce the move before they start their series with the Phillies tomorrow. Carrasco and Laffey are the two obvious candidates.

Carrasco got his brains beat in for four starts after coming over in the Cliff Lee trade last year, though this season he’s been okay in Triple-A (4.29 ERA, ~4.50 FIP). Laffey was demoted earlier this year after a failed bullpen stint, though he’s walked 15 and struck out just nine in four Triple-A starts. Whoever Cleveland calls upon with start in Cincinnati Friday then against the Blue Jays early next week, and my best advice is to avoid both at all costs.

Vicente Padilla | Dodgers | 2%

The Dodgers welcomed back their Opening Day starter after he battled a nerve issue in his forearm for close to two months, and he promptly got smacked around by the Red Sox this weekend. (R) ZiPS is a little rough on Padilla, forecasting a 5.11 ERA (4.70 FIP) the rest of the way with an acceptable strikeout rate 6.57 K/9). I don’t think he’ll match the 3.20 ERA he posted with LA last year, but I can see him maintaining a low-to-mid-4.00’s mark with more than seven strikeouts per nine. His next two starts come against the Yankees (sit) and at the Giants (start), and he has value in NL-only leagues as long as you pick your spots.

Rick Porcello | Tigers | 42%

Last year’s wunderkind hasn’t been able to repeat 2009’s success in 2010, earning him a demotion to Triple-A. The Tigers have yet to announce his replacement, calling up Triple-A closer Jay Sborz for bullpen depth for the time being. Detroit has plenty of options for that now vacant starting spot, including Enrique Gonzalez, Brad Thomas, and Eddie Bonine, none of which salivates your fantasy tongue. Whoever they call on with start at the molten hot Braves then at the Twins the next two times out, and they have no one to call up to make those starts viable fantasy options.

Ownership rates listed based on Yahoo! leagues.