Author Archive

Recent Promotions: Arencibia & West

A day late, but here’s some recent call ups to consider for your squad…

J.P. Arencibia | C | Blue Jays | 1% owned

The Jays lost starting catcher John Buck to the disabled list after the backstop took a foul tip off his right hand today, opening up a laceration on his thumb (don’t they teach you to keep your throwing hand behind your back?), and have replaced him by calling up one of their best prospects in Arencibia. The powerful yet free swinging 24-year-old hit a (park adjusted) .291/.348/.601 with 31 homers in 420 plate appearances this season, raising his homer total to 79 since the start of 2008.

I wrote a little bit about Arencibia earlier this month, noting that his likely homerun production makes him a viable fantasy option even if he provide little in terms of AVG (and OBP). Nothing’s changed, except now he has a clear path towards some playing time for the next two weeks or so.

Sean West | SP | Marlins | 0%

You are forewarned, I’m a bigger West fan that most. Something about a 6-foot-8 lefty with a fastball in the low-90’s excites me. He followed up last season’s 4.49 FIP (103.1 IP) with strong peripherals in Triple-A this season (7.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 43.9% grounders), and now gets the chance to prove himself in the place of the departed Nate Robertson. West allowed a pair of homers and struck out four Phillies in five innings of work against the yesterday, and going forward he’s clearly just a matchup guy. (R) ZiPS doesn’t like West at all, for what it’s worth (5.32 FIP, 6.62 K/9).

His next two starts come at home against the Cards and in Cincinnati, but after that he lines up to face the Pirates and Mets (in CitiField). Plan ahead, and you might end up stealing a W and a few ERA points.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


Starting Pitchers: August 2nd

Big update because of the deadline activity and one noteworthy call up…

Rich Harden | Rangers | 26% owned

After a month long stint on a disabled with a strained glute, the game’s premier three true outcomes pitcher returned Saturday and held the Angels to one run over seven innings of work. Despite that stellar outing, we know what Harden is: he’s basically a five inning pitcher with enough swing-and-missability to strikeout a batter an inning, but he’ll kill you in WHIP and chances are ERA as well. (R) ZiPS sees a 4.29 ERA (4.33 FIP) with a 1.40 WHIP and 9.64 K/9 the rest of the way, but it’s a risky proposition. Texas will win him some games with their offense and bullpen, but start him at your own risk. His next comes at the A’s, which might be worth it, but after that Texas runs through the AL East gauntlet.

Jeremy Hellickson | Rays | 6%

The best pitching prospect in the minors is getting the call today for what the Rays say is a one start cameo; they’re just giving their usual starting five an extra day of rest. Hellickson’s minor league numbers are off the charts (2.72 FIP between Double- and Triple-A) and he’ll be facing a Twins’ lineup without Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau tonight. These one start jobs are always risky, even with great young pitchers, but everything lines up well for a quality start out of Hellickson tonight. Chances are he’ll be back up at some point this season, maybe as a reliever. It’s worth noting that he’s listed as a RP exclusively in Yahoo! leagues, which may or may not hurt your flexibility if you splurge for it.

Dan Hudson | Diamondbacks | 3%

We’ve written quite a bit out Hudson recently, so I’ll keep it short. Basically he’s moving to an easier league and into a park ever so slightly better for his fly ball tendencies, which obviously increases his value. Hudson schooled the Mets in CitiField yesterday (8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K), and his next two starts come at home against the Padres and in Milwaukee.

Edwin Jackson | White Sox | 51%

The guy Hudson was traded for sees his value drop for similar reasons. Jackson’s moving to a tougher league in a more hitter friendly park, so that 6.92 K/9 and 4.02 BB/9 are going to have to improve if he ever plans on being a low-4.00’s ERA guy. Of course that’s been the book on Jackson for years now. His first start as a ChiSox will come Wednesday again one of his many former teams, the Tigers in Detroit. Hard to believe Jackson’s now on his fifth team and is still just 26-years-old.

John Lannan | Nationals | 1%

There’s really not much to discuss as far as Lannan is concerned, we know what he is (4.84 career FIP), but we should talk about the guy he’s replacing, Stephen Strasburg. The Nats understandably took the cautious road when their franchise pitcher had trouble getting loose last Tuesday, eventually placing him on the 15-day DL. He threw on the side over the weekend and felt fine, so hopefully his return won’t be delayed longer than the two weeks plus a day minimum.

For fantasy owners in redraft leagues, we’re reaching the point of the season where trading a guy like Strasburg is good strategy. He’ll soon bump up against his innings limit, and the Nats are going to shut him down at the slightest hint of discomfort, so if you can deal him to upgrade your team elsewhere or land a more reliable starter, then by all means do it.

Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 51%

Lilly got a lot of play before the deadline as a gutsy guy that pitched inside to righties with his 85 mph fastball and all that jazz, but his fantasy value is limited because of moderate strikeout rates and what should be underwhelming ERA’s. Moving from Wrigley to Dodger Stadium will certainly help lessen his 1.46 HR/9 rate this year, and his BABIP (.261) and LOB% (75.7%) luck has been in play for parts of four seasons now. After 700 innings does that luck become a skill? That’s a question for people much smarter than I, but for fantasy value Lilly certainly gets an uptick following the trade. His next two outings came at home against the Padres and Nationals.

Jake Westbrook | Cardinals | 6%

After Mark Buehrle, I’ve always believed that Westbrook was the perfect St. Louis Cardinals pitchers for no reason whatsoever. I guess something about a sinkerballer and Dave Duncan just makes sense. Westbrook’s walk rate has risen following elbow reconstruction, which isn’t surprising since control and command are traditionally the last things to come back. Moving into the NL should improve his peripherals a touch and lower his ERA, possibly into the low-4.00’s, but he’s still not much more than a fifth or sixth fantasy starter. His first start for his new time comes tonight against the punchless Astros.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


Waiver Wire: July 29th

Danny Valencia | 3B | Twins | 4% owned

There’s nothing like six games against the Orioles and Royals to help jump start the bat, eh? Valencia went 14-for-23 with four doubles and homer in those two series, enough of a surge to guarantee him some regular playing time until the Twins trade for someone better. David Golebiewski broke Valencia down in detail last month and concluded that he’s not an every day fantasy option, but there’s never anything wrong with riding out a hot streak while it lasts.

R.A. Dickey | SP | Mets | 30%

I’m not going to lie, I’ve been waiting for what I figured would be Dickey’s inevitable crash back down to Earth for a few weeks now, but I’ve got to hand it to him, the guy’s been great. Knuckleballers tend to be late bloomers, so it’s not out of the question that Dickey has gotten a hold on things at age-35 and can be a viable ML starter.

Will he maintain the 2.32 ERA he has following 8.1 shutout innings of work this afternoon? No, of course not. His FIP coming into today was rock solid at 3.24 thanks to an abnormally low 2.34 BB/9. That should rise in the future just because of the nature of the knuckleball, but he could very easily settle in as a ~4.00 ERA guy for the rest of the season with just enough wins and strikeouts to keep you interested. His next start comes against the Braves next week.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.


Phillies summon Domonic Brown

Shane Victorino hit the disabled list earlier today with a strained abdominal muscle suffered when he dove back into first base last night, so now the Phillies are replacing him with the best prospect in baseball: outfielder Domonic Brown. Most of us expected Brown to get the call once the team traded Jayson Werth, but Victorino’s injury makes such a deal unlikely. Werth will instead shift to center to take over for the Flyin Hawaiian, and Brown will assume everyday rightfield duties. He’s in the lineup tonight, batting sixth.

Both Baseball America and Keith Law ranked Brown as the game’s best prospect at midseason, and with good reason. The 607th overall pick in the 2006 started his career as a tall and lanky 18-year-old that oozed athleticism but needed to learn how to convert his physical gifts into baseball skills. Brown has done that and then some, improving his performance each year of his career and with each climb up the ladder. Here’s his progression, using basic triple-slash stats:

2006: .214/.292/.265 in rookie ball
2007: .299/.363/.415 in mostly short season ball
2008: .291/.382/.417 in Low-A
2009: .299/.377/.504 with ~60% of his PA in High-A and ~40% in Double-A
2010: .327/.391/.589 with ~70% of his PA in Double-A and ~30% in Triple-A

“A free swinger as an amateur, Brown has developed a solid eye at the plate and recognizes pitches well,” said the BA gang when they ranked him the game’s 15th best prospect before the season. “The biggest question on Brown’s upside revolves around how much power he’ll develop. Some Double-A Eastern League observers thought his power would be average at best and would limit him to hitting at the top of the lineup, rather than being a middle-of-the-lineup factor.” KLaw wasn’t as skeptical about his pop, saying Brown “has 30-plus homer potential” when he ranked him the 14th best prospect in baseball before the season. As you can see above, Brown has increased his ISO’s from .126 to .205 to .262 in each of the last three seasons, so the power is definitely coming.

The Phillies promoted their best prospect to Triple-A for the first time this season after he hit .318/.391/.602 at Double-A Reading in the first half, and the 22-year-old has hit .346/.390/.561 in 118 plate appearances since the move. His MLE sits at .289/.320/.456 this season (according to MinorLeagueSplits.com), though CHONE was a bit more pessimistic before the season, predicting a .248/.348/.303 line. I’d definitely expect more of the former, especially playing regularly in Citizen’s Bank Park. He’ll even steal some bases, averaging close to 25 SB per 500 plate appearances in his minor league life.

Brown has exhibited a bit of a platoon split in each season of his career except 2008, but that appears to be an outlier at this point. Generally speaking, it’s about a 100 point drop in OPS, which is tolerable for a guy with a bat like this. We’re not talking about an Andre Ethier (or worse, a Curtis Granderson) kind of split here. I’d probably sit him against the better lefties at least early on just until he gets his feet wet, but there’s no question that Brown will be a viable fantasy outfielder almost immediately. There’s plenty of help around him in the lineup, so he’ll have RBI opportunities, and there’s nothing blocking his playing time (except for Ben Francisco’s .318 wOBA).

Brown has already been gobbled up in 9% of Yahoo! leagues, so make sure you run out and grab him while you can. He could play his way into #2 outfielder status by next month, and obviously has the potential to be even better going forward for those of you lucky enough to have him in a keeper league.


Marlins call on Morrison

You’ve probably heard by now, but Marlins’ left fielder Chris Coghlan tore the meniscus in his left knee after hitting Wes Helms in the face with a shaving-cream pie following the his walk-off single on Sunday. He could be out up to eight weeks depending on whether or not surgery is required. Florida replaced Coghlan on the active roster by calling up one of the game’s very best prospects, first baseman Logan Morrison.

Morrison, 22, was declared the 18th best prospect in the game prior to the 2009 season by Baseball America before they ranked him 20th before this season. No. 20 in baseball was only good enough for No. 2 on the Marlins, who had some kid named Mike Stanton ahead of him, but that’s okay, we won’t hold it against him. “Morrison has the best plate discipline in the organization,” said the crew at BA of the lefty swinger. “He has a balanced, flat swing that enables him to keep his bat in the zone a long time. He has plus power and can put on a batting-practice show that nearly rivals those of Jacksonville teammate Mike Stanton.”

The scouting report sounds wonderful, and the minor league stats are just as impressive. He hit .332/.402/.494 in A-ball in 2008, then followed it up with a.277/.408/.439 performance last year, though he missed most of April and May with a broken bone in his right hand. The 666th overall pick in the 2005 draft has ratcheted it back up to his 2008 levels this year, hitting .313/.424/.502 almost exclusively in Triple-A. Aside from a pronounced split last season, Morrison hasn’t shown much weakness against lefthanders in the bush leagues.

A first baseman by trade, the Marlins have gotten Morrison some reps in left field in each of the last two seasons, which is where he’ll primarily play in the big leagues. Florida isn’t shy about sticking guys in left with little to no experience at the position, they did it with Coghlan just last year and with Miguel Cabrera back in the day. Thankfully we don’t have to worry about defensive value, just playing time.

The team has indicated that Morrison will share playing time in left with Emilio Bonifacio, depending largely on the pitching matchup. Bonifacio has a .286 career wOBA in 765 plate appearances (to his credit, it’s .314 this year), so I can’t imagine he’ll hold onto this job for long, not if Morrison proves competent against big league lefties. I’d give it two weeks or so before he’s playing every day.

CHONE projected a rock solid .264/.344/.409 batting line for Morrison before the season, and his MLE according to MinorLeagueSplits.com isn’t far off at .249/.346/.378. Morrison is a 1B by default in Yahoo! leagues, so it’ll take a week or two until he picks up OF eligibility as well. Even if he overshoots the projections and MLE a bit (say .275 AVG with a .160 ISO), Morrison still isn’t a top tier fantasy first baseman, but he’d make for a damn fine third outfielder. That value only increases in NL-only or deep leagues.

Morrison is in tonight’s lineup, batting second between leadoff hitter Hanley Ramirez and Gaby Sanchez (.368 wOBA), not a terrible place to hit. If he stays there, the RBI and runs scored opportunities should be plentiful.


Starting Pitchers: July 26th

The latest on various rotation spots from around the league…

J.A. Happ | Phillies | 35% owned

Jamie Moyer hit the disabled list with an elbow injury that may or may not be the end his long career, and taking his place in the rotation is last year’s NL RoY runner up. Of course, Happ benefited from a tremendous amount of luck last season (.270 BABIP, 85.2% LOB%, 4.33 FIP, 2.93 ERA) and is unlikely to repeat that performance going forward. (R) ZiPS predicts an ERA close to five (4.80, to be exact) and a surprisingly high 7.00 K/9, but I’d probably push on the ERA and take the under on the strikeouts the rest of the way. Happ starts at the Nationals on Friday, then at the Marlins next week.

Joe Saunders | Diamondbacks | 11%

We don’t need to talk much about the Dan Haren side of yesterday’s blockbuster, he’s an always start guy, but the Diamondbacks got a new starting pitcher in the deal as well. Saunders has pretty much established himself as ~4.8 K/9, mid-4.00’s ERA guy over the last three years, save for his 2008 season that featured a .267 BABIP and 75.7% LOB% (3.41 ERA). Switching to the lesser league will certainly help his overall numbers, but remember that he’s going to the D-Backs. The bullpen will probably blow a bunch of his leads, let a bunch of his inherited runners score, and generally just ruin some of Saunders’ perfectly good work. Mediocre starters on bad teams simply don’t have much fantasy value, though Saunders seems to have retained some name value. He’ll make his Arizona debut in Philadelphia on Thursday.

Ross Detwiler | Nationals | 0%

The sixth overall pick in the 2007 draft returned to the big leagues over the weekend after having surgery to repair his labrum in hip, though he got rocked to the tune of five runs (zero earned!) in 3.2 IP against the Brewers yesterday. I’m a fan because he’s consistently shown a strikeout rate above 8.0 K/9 with a groundball rate around 50% throughout his minor league career. Of course this isn’t the minor leaguers, and Detwiler is still subject to the unpredictable ups and downs associated with 24-year-old pitchers. He makes for a fine matchup sixth or seventh starter in NL only or deep mixed leagues, but not much more than that. He’ll start at home against the Phillies this weekend, then at the D-Backs next week.

Quick Notes: Josh Tomlin is making his big league for the Indians against the Yankees tomorrow, taking the place of the injured Aaron Laffey. Tomlin’s a control artist (1.9 BB/9 in his minor league career) and the Yanks tend to struggle against pitchers they’ve never seen before, but I wouldn’t risk it … Dustin Moseley has replaced Sergio Mitre as Andy Pettitte’s fill in, and will start at the Indians on Thursday.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


Waiver Wire: July 22nd

Three players with low ownership rates that should be in consideration for your team…

J.J. Hardy | SS | Twins | 9% owned

Hardy won us all over by posting a .355 wOBA back in 2008, but he followed that up with a disappointing .292 wOBA last year before bottoming out at .288 this season. He missed essentially all of May and June with a wrist issue, but he’s hit .340/.354/.447 (.352 wOBA) in 48 plate appearances since returning earlier this month. All of his power is into the gaps for doubles instead of over the fence for homers, but there’s nothing wrong with that from a shortstop. Even if he can’t maintain that pace for the rest of the season, he’ll have value while he’s hot in the short-term.

Fred Lewis | OF | Blue Jays | 6%

The Giants sure have some egg of their face after selling Lewis to the Jays earlier this season only to watch him post a .352 wOBA with ten steals. He’s hitting .284/.383/.451 with a ton of runs scored and more than a handful of steals since an early-to-mid-June cold streak, and has a whopping nine extra base hits (six doubles, one triple, two homers) in his last dozen games. Here’s a great opportunity to buy low on steals, runs, and even some power without compromising batting average.

J.J. Putz | RP | White Sox | 26%

With Bobby Jenks struggling of late (nine baserunners, seven runs in his last 2.2 IP over four appearances), Ozzie Guillen declared his closer’s role “open” for the time being. Matt Thornton (60% owned) will certainly get some consideration for saves, but so will the scorching hot Putz. The former M’s closer hasn’t allowed a run since early May, a span of 25 appearances, and his numbers during that stretch are simply fantastic: .140/.169/.163 against, 9.36 K/9, 1.22 GB/FB. At some point, the saves will have to come his way. Even if they don’t, here’s a setup man worth owning.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


Young Starters & Innings Limits

If you happen to play fantasy football, then you’ve probably figured out that it’s really tough to win a league title with Peyton Manning as your quarterback. It’s not that he isn’t a great player, he obviously is. The problem is that the Colts always clinch a playoff berth only and rest their regulars during Week 17, championship week in fantasyland. Instead of getting a full four quarters (or more) worth of Manning, you’re getting a half or maybe even less. Tough to win with your best player on the bench.

The same theory applies in fantasy baseball, though the impact might not be as severe. Almost every team has implemented some sort of innings limitation on their young starting pitchers, likely shutting them down (or at least scaling back their number of starts) late in the season. That can be a problem for owners who have relied on these guys all season, and suddenly taken away come playoff time.

Replacing that kind of production is often impossible late in the season, so there’s not much more you can do than take the hit if you’ve waited to long to act. What can you do to prevent this? Simple, just trade them to an unsuspecting owner before your trade deadline. Enjoy as much as their production as possible, then spin them off before their team tightens the clamps.

Here are five young pitchers with fantasy value and upcoming innings situations that you may want to avoid. The IP totals listed included majors and minors.

Jaime Garcia | 2010 IP: 103 | 2009 IP: 37.2

Garcia missed basically all of the 2009 season after having Tommy John surgery, so his previous career high comes way back in 2006, when the tossed 155 IP. He does have two other seasons at 103.1 IP and 122 IP, so the century mark is nothing foreign to him. Tony LaRussa seemed to indicate that the team doesn’t have a set limit for Garcia this year, though they will take special care not over to overwork him.

Phil Hughes | 2010 IP: 106 | 2009 IP: 105.1

The Yankees have not put a number out there as far as Hughes’ cap for this season, but the general belief that it will be around 160-175 IP. If true, they’re using his 2006 career high total as 146 IP as his baseline. Unlike the sometimes comical Joba Rules, the Yanks have indicated that they’re going to take a more conventional approach when controlling Hughes’ workload, taking advantage of off days to skip his turn every so often. This plan is already in full effect, as the 24-year-old righty has thrown just 23.2 IP (four starts) over the last 31 days.

Mat Latos | 2010 IP: 106.2 | 2009 IP: 123

The Padres caught a bit of a break when Latos required a sneeze-induced DL stint, and it turns out he won’t even miss a start thanks to the All Star break and off days. Pitching coach Darren Balsley indicated before the season that the team would start to be careful with Latos once he gets to 150 IP, though they understandably have no plans to shut their best pitcher down once he reaches that total now that they’re in a pennant race. Expect San Diego to take advantage of as many off days as possible over the next few weeks, otherwise they’re going to have a problem on their hands come early September.

Mike Leake | 2010 IP: 114.2 | 2009 IP: 142

Leake’s IP total at Arizona State last season appears gaudy, and it is, but remember that he was working on a once-a-week schedule, not a once-every-five-days schedule. Those extra two days of rest between outings is a considerable difference. Dusty Baker said they’re going to skip Leake a few times, but declined to reveal a set innings cap. Speculation has it around 150-175 IP, which really isn’t that far off now.

Stephen Strasburg | 2010 IP: 104 | Career High: 109

Like Leake, Strasburg’s innings came on a once-a-week schedule in college last season. The Nationals have been pretty open about their plan for the young phenom, saying that they will start him on a regular five day schedule and simply shut him down when the time comes. Strasburg will be held to 150-160 IP or so, so he might be a fantasy non-factor by the end of August. He’s on the mound tonight, so that 2010 IP total is going up as you read this. His name alone will get plenty of attention if you place him on the trade block.

Three others worth mentioning are Jonathon Niese, Clay Buchholz, and David Price, but they’re in a little better shape than those guys above. Niese is already up to 102.1 IP this year (not counting tonight), but his career high is 178 IP back in 2008, which came before a 120 IP effort last season (with a hamstring injury mixed it). Buchholz has thrown 99.2 IP this season (counting today), and he threw a whopping 191 IP last season. Price tossed 162.2 IP last year, and is up to 120.1 IP this season. They’re good to go.


Recent Promotions: Josh Bell

We’re well into July now and the trade deadline is right around the corner. The Orioles’ figure to move several pieces between now and then, with Ty Wigginton and Miguel Tejada getting the most face time on the trade rumor circuit. Whether or not they get moved within the next two weeks or during the August waiver period is a different story all together, but once those two are gone, the path will be clear for top prospect Josh Bell to get regular playing time for the O’s.

Bell was up with Baltimore earlier this month (a clean .200/.200/.200 batting line in 15 PA) before going back down to Triple-A to get some at-bats during the All Star break. He’s back now, but has mostly ridden the bench as the vets get showcased for their (eventual) new teams. Acquired in the George Sherrill deal, Baseball America ranked Bell as the team’s second best prospect before this season.

“[Bell] has above-average power and a good approach,” said BA’s write-up, “showing the ability to work counts to get on base.” His minor league track record backs it up; His career ISO above A-ball is a hefty .209 in 827 plate appearances. Despite being a switch-hitter, Bell has a considerable platoon split (.687 OPS vs. LHP, .875 vs. RHP), enough to garner whispers about becoming a full-time lefthanded hitter. Considering some of the power lefthanded starters in the AL East, that may not be such a good thing.

I’m not sure Bell has much to offer your team during the remainder of this season, so his value is primary tied up in keeper leagues. There’s enough power in his bat that 20 homers over a full season is very possible as soon as 2011, though he might not bring such a high average right away. The one thing he will be assured of in the future is playing time, with the O’s in full rebuild mode and Bell representing one of their core pieces. If Wigginton and Tejada get moved sooner rather than later, the O’s and fantasy owners alike will get a sneak preview the rest of the way.


Starting Pitchers: July 19th

The first starting pitcher update of the so-called second half…

Josh Beckett & Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | 88% & 81% owned, respectively

The Red Sox are finally starting to get healthy. Buchholz is on track to come off the disabled list and start Wednesday against the Athletics in Oakland, which is a must start for fantasy owners. He’s only missed two weeks, so I wouldn’t worry about the hammy injury limiting his effectiveness or anything like that. You can’t pass up a matchup like that.

Beckett’s a different story. He’s been out since mid-May with a back issue, but even before the injury his peripheral stats were down from last year (-0.55 K/9, +1.41 BB/9, -4.3% GB%). Obviously the injury could have contributed to that. Beckett’s 7.29 ERA is largely a function of a .365 BABIP and 55.9% LOB%, but a return to his ~3.33 FIP form from 2007-2009 through the rest of the season isn’t a given. (R) ZiPS predicts a 4.32 ERA (3.42 FIP) and 8.38 K/9 the rest of the way, though I’d perhaps plan for a few less strikeouts. Maybe that’s just the conservative in me. He’ll reportedly start in Seattle on Friday, another must start even if he’s not the Josh Beckett of old.

Sergio Mitre | Yankees | 0%

The Yankees lost Andy Pettitte for what GM Brian Cashman called four-to-five weeks yesterday, so his spot will be filled by Mitre for the time being. He’s coming off the disabled list himself (oblique), and his two spot starts earlier this year were bad (4.1 IP, 4 R) and good (5 IP, 1 R). The sinkerballer won’t give you any strikeouts (5.46 K/9), though he’ll steal a few wins given the team around him if used properly. His next two starts come against the Royals and at Cleveland, solid matchups.

Rick Porcello | Tigers | 33%

Back up from his minor league crash course, Porcello gave up one run over eight innings against the Indians over the weekend, though he still allowed a fair amount of fly balls plus line drives (17) compared to grounders (11). The sinker is a huge part of Porcello’s success, so until he gets his ground ball rate back closer to 55% than 45%, we’re going to have to hedge our bets. Saturday was a good step forward, now let’s see some more. His next two starts come against the homer happy Blue Jays and the powerhouse Rays. Might want to leave him on the bench for those two.

Quick Notes: Wesley Wright will replace Brian Moehler in the Astros’ rotation and start tomorrow in Wrigley. Moehler hit the disabled list with a groin issue … Roy Oswalt is on target to make his next start (Saturday against the Reds) after taking a comebacker off his ankle yesterday … Scott Kazmir, both ineffective and injured, will be replaced in the Halos rotation by either Trevor Bell or Sean O’Sullivan. The team will announce who gets the start tomorrow, before their game against the Yankees … Mat Latos is expected to come off the disabled list in time for his start against the Pirates on Saturday. Between the All Star break and off days, he’ll end up missing zero starts … Jeanmar Gomez of the Indians was fantastic in his big league debut yesterday (7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K), but was optioned back to the minors today. He’ll be back up at some point, and I definitely dig him as a sleeper. Not a big stuff guy, but good command and a willingness to attack the zone.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.