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Mets Turn To Thole

Last weekend the Mets dumped Rod Barajas, their starting catcher for basically the entire season, on the Dodgers when they claimed him off waivers. They saved themselves a little more than $100,000 over the rest of the season with the move. Barajas quickly endeared himself to the Dodger faithful, going 3-for-4 with a pair of doubles and a homer in his first game with the club. Of course, he owns a .283 career OBP (.274 this year) and by all accounts is an atrocious offensive player, but he certainly started his Dodger career off on the right foot.

For the Mets, the deal wasn’t so much about saving that extra $100,000 as it was opening a full-time spot for 23-year-old Josh Thole. A half-dozen or so games out of the playoff spot, it was time for the Mets to see what they had in Thole and whether or not he could be part of their future.

Baseball America ranked Thole as the team’s eighth best prospect before the season, saying he “essentially takes a two-strike approach on all counts, choking up on the bat to punch line drives to both gaps. He hits for average and is difficult to strike out.” They also acknowledged his lack of power and some throwing deficiencies, but the latter doesn’t matter in fantasy. They project him as more of a platoon player long-term than as an everyday backstop, but for now the Mets are going to run him out there and hope he impresses. Hard to blame them, really.

Before Barajas was jettisoned, Thole performed admirably in spot duty, hitting .289/.361/.351 in 108 plate appearances. Before that he had hit .261/.347/.424 in just shy of 200 plate appearances with Triple-A Buffalo, and last year he went .321/.356/.396 in a September call-up. The power numbers are obviously nothing to write home about (.092 ISO in over 1,700 minor league plate appearances), but his approach and contact skills have allowed him to walk (209) more than he’s struck out (206) in his career, and I’m a sucker for guys that can do that.

Overall, Thole is hitting .303/.377/.367 as a big leaguer this season, exceptionally good AVG (and OBP) for a catcher. The counting stats aren’t there – he has just one homer, nine RBI, and six runs scored in over 120 plate appearances – but with the position so devoid of offensive production, getting help in the rate stats is a pretty big coup at this time of year. The long-term production probably won’t be anything special, but if you’re desperate for catching help, there are worse options than riding Thole’s BABIP-fueled batting average the rest of the way.


Waiver Wire: August 26th

A pair of players who cut their teeth in Japan before making a splash in MLB…

Hideki Matsui | OF | Angels | 36% owned

Godzilla’s season has mostly been one of disappointment after the Halos signed him to replace Vlad Guerrero, but the 36-year-old has turned it on in a big way since the All Star break. He’s hitting .305/.383/.552 with six homers in his last 29 games and has been even better over the last two weeks or so: .515/.590/.879 with a pair of long balls. (R) ZiPS forecasts a more than respectable .275/.350/.462 over the last month of the season, numbers that could certainly help any fantasy club. As long as Matsui’s surgically repaired knees hold up, you’re in the clear.

Koji Uehara | SP, RP | Orioles | 10%

The Orioles really haven’t had a set closer all season following Mike Gonzalez’s disastrous start and subsequent DL stint, but Buck Showalter has given the ball in Uehara in each of the team’s last save situations, not to mention another game when the O’s had a four run lead in the 9th. For now, it looks like Uehara will be Baltimore’s closer du jour, and his value extends beyond saves as well. The 35-year-old has struck out 31 batters in 27 IP this season, walking just five and allowing zero long balls. His ERA is a dead even 2.00 (1.36 FIP, 3.18 xFIP). The O’s won’t win a ton of games, but when they do, it looks like Uehara is the guy that will grab those save opps.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


Waiver Wire: August 25th

Chances are your trade deadline has passed, so the waiver wire is of supreme importance down the stretch. Here’s a pair of players that could prove useful in the coming weeks.

Coco Crisp | OF | Athletics | 34% owned

Zach Sanders highlighted Crisp as a potential late season steals candidate, but that’s not the limit of his value. He sports a .380/.418/.606 batting line over the last three weeks with three homers, eight steals (caught zero times for you net steal players), and 15 runs scored. (R) ZiPS sees a .268/.338/.423 batting line the rest of the way, but as long as he’s hot, his bat could make a huge difference this late in the season. Chances are you don’t have three outfielders performing this well right now, so jump on it if Crisp is still available in your league.

Ryan Raburn | 1B, 2B, OF | Tigers | 21%

The 29-year-old Raburn has benefited from various injuries to the Tigers’ regular starting nine, having assumed the everyday leftfield job (with Johnny Damon shifting to the DH) this month. He’s hitting .362/.393/.724 with five homers and 13 runs scored over the last two weeks, a bit of a statistical correction for his .191/.286/.265 stretch from early-July to early-August. (R) ZiPS pegs him for just .257/.325/.432 the rest of the way, but again, as long as he’s hot, there’s no reason not to ride it out. The eligibility at multiple positions is a big bonus, particularly since one of them is an up the middle spot.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


Recent Promotions: Maybin & Nova

A pair of recent call-ups, one recognizable, another not so much…

Cameron Maybin | OF | Marlins | 4% owned

In their never-ending pursuit of acquiring every available outfielder on the market, the Giants opened up a spot for the once highly touted Maybin by taking on Cody Ross. Maybin has certainly had his chances in the big leagues, with a .307 wOBA in 489 plate appearances spread across four seasons. It’s hard to believe that he’s still just 23, so we definitely can’t tag him as a bust yet.

For fantasy purposes, Maybin’s greatest value comes from steals, as he has the ability to swipe a half-dozen or more from here on out. He won’t help much in regular old head-to-head leagues, but if you’re in a roto scoring league, those extra steals will certainly help.

Ivan Nova | SP | Yankees | 1%

Nova pitched well in his first career start last night, limiting the Blue Jays to just two runs over 5.1 innings of work. He was yanked a bit early – just 73 pitches – because there was some alleged beanball nonsense going on and Joe Girardi didn’t want to subject his rookie righthander to anything like that. Seems kinda lame, but it is what it is. The Yankees have not committed a rotation spot to Nova going forward, but they have indicated that he will make a few more starts over the next few weeks as the team tries to keep their regular starters rested. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that he takes Javy Vazquez’s job outright at some point, given the latter’s disintegrating stuff.

The 23-year-old righty won’t blow you away with sky high strikeout totals or microscopic ERA’s, instead he’s more of a matchup starter that post a low-4.00’s ERA and could steal you some wins given the lineup and bullpen around him. If you’re in an AL-only or deep mixed league, keep an eye on Nova’s schedule and see what’s in store. The Yanks have both the White Sox and A’s coming up, hardly powerhouse offenses.

Update: The Yanks just announced that Vazquez is being skipped the next time through the rotation, and Nova will start on Sunday at the White Sox.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.


Starting Pitchers: August 23rd

Two youngsters that found themselves back in their team’s rotations this coming week…

Travis Wood | Reds | 31% owned

I think the Reds may have surprised everyone with all of their young pitching this year, and Wood is a big reason why. The southpaw has put up some strong peripherals (7.22 K/9, 2.35 BB/9) in his nine starts with the Reds, but his .211 BABIP isn’t going last forever. That said, it wouldn’t be unheard of if that level of luck stayed true right through the end of the season. Whether or not you want to risk on it is your call, but Wood is certainly servicable with the right matchups. He starts tomorrow at the Giants, and Cincy’s schedule features a whole lotta games against the Pirates, Padres, and Astros next month.

Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 2%

One phenom goes on the disabled list, another comes off it. Zimmermann returns after missing most of the season due to Tommy John surgery, and will make his first start of 2010 this coming Thursday. The righthander was outstanding in 16 starts for the Nats last year, striking out a touch more than a man per inning while walking just under three per nine, but some bad BABIP (.339) and LOB% (67.5%) luck had his ERA at 4.63 (3.59 FIP, 3.39 xFIP). I wouldn’t expect the same level of dominance this year this close to surgery, but the strikeouts should be there. With September call-ups right around the corner and some luck from an essentially league average defense, his ERA could end up in the 3.00’s in September. That Thursday start comes at home against the Cardinals.

Quick Notes: The Yankees recalled Ivan Nova to make a few starts as they rest their regular rotation in advance of the stretch run, and he’ll start against either the White Sox or Athletics next weekend/early next week. With the Yanks offense and bullpen, it’s a decent opportunity to steal a win … both Nick Blackburn (minors) and Rich Harden (DL) are back in their respective rotations, but proceed at your own risk.

Ownership rates on based on Yahoo! leagues.


Starting Pitchers: August 16th

Three guys coming off the disabled list and going back into their team’s rotations…

Homer Bailey | Reds | 5% owned

Out since May with shoulder inflammation, Bailey returned to the bump yesterday and fired six scoreless innings against the Marlins. He struck out four and walked none, though earlier in the season his BB/9 was over three-and-a-half. (R) ZiPS isn’t a fan, forecasting a 5.10 ERA with just 6.90 K/9 the rest of way, though I think Bailey could beat that and post an ERA in the mid-4.00’s with a strikeout rate closer to eight per nine. If you matchup him up against impatient teams that swing-and-miss a lot, he could give your club a real nice boost (think of it as Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. The Blue Jays Syndrome). Bailey’s next two outings come at the Dodgers and at the Giants.

Derek Holland | Rangers | 2%

Holland came back from his shoulder and knee issues just in time to take the place of the DL-bound Rich Harden, and will start Wednesday against the Rays. The hard throwing lefthander misses enough bats and doesn’t walk many, but he’s proven to be very homer prone in his short time in the big leagues. (R) ZiPS sees an unfriendly 5.40 ERA and 6.60 K/9, though I definitely think the strikeouts are a little light. The Rangers will win him a ton of games because of their offense and bullpen, so Holland still has fantasy value as a fifth or sixth kind of starter.

Kyle Lohse | Cardinals | 8%

Brad Penny isn’t coming back anytime soon and Jeff Suppan has mercifully been put to sleep placed on the DL, so Lohse is back from a forearm issue to drive Cardinals’ fans mad. He had his patented fourth inning meltdown yesterday against the Cubs (charged with five runs without recording an out in the frame). Lohse has always had good stuff, but his 3.78 ERA (3.89 FIP) year in 2008 sticks out like a sore thumb from the rest of his career. I wouldn’t touch him even in extremely deep or NL-only leagues.

Quick Notes: The Mets recalled Pat Misch but he’s non-rosterable … Jhoulys Chacin is going to fill-in for the injured Jeff Francis, and I’d expect more of what he did earlier in the year (4.04 ERA, 9.73 K/9) the rest of the way. Jump on it.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


Waiver Wire: August 12th

A pair of hot hitting outfielders worth considering for your squad…

David Murphy | Rangers | 9% owned

So far this season Ron Washington has shown that he will ride the hot hand, and Murphy is that guy right now. Acquired from the Red Sox in the ill-fated Eric Gagne deal, the lefty swinging outfielder has hit .357/.426/.643 with four homers and as many walks as strikeouts (five) over the last two weeks, taking over the everyday leftfield duties with Josh Hamilton sliding over to center. Murphy does have a rather considerable platoon split for his career (.350 wOBA vs. RHP, .297 vs. LHP), so you probably don’t want to start him when the Rangers face Jon Lester this weekend and David Price early next week, but otherwise go for it. It might only be a short-lived hot streak, but every little bit helps.

Mike Stanton | Marlins | 27% owned

Stanton came up with much fanfare earlier this season, but he unsurprisingly struggled a bit out of the gate (.217/.283/.409 in his first six weeks as a big leaguer). High strikeout guys tend to do that, and hey, it’s not easy being a big leaguer. However, the rookie has turned it on big time over the last month, with a .324/.405/.689 batting line capped off by last night’s 5-for-5, ten total base effort. No disrespect to Murphy, but Stanton’s the safer bet here; I don’t think too many people would be shocked if he performed at the similar level during the rest of the season.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


Promotion: Chris Carter

One of the six players they received from the Diamondbacks in the Dan Haren trade, the Athletics are actually Chris Carter’s third organization. He was originally a 15th round pick by the White Sox in 2005, but they traded him straight up for Carlos Quentin in December of 2007. Eleven days later, Carter was swapped as part of the package for Haren, and 968 days after that, he made his Major League debut.

Before the trade, Carter slugged .522 (.224 ISO) with a 12.5 BB% and 24.0 K% as a 20-year-old in the Low-A South Atlantic League, certainly strong numbers for a kid playing 100+ games in a season for the first time. His power output exploded the next season, unsurprising in the notoriously hitter friendly High-A Cal League. Carter’s .310 ISO led the circuit by 40 points thanks to his 39 homers, and he still maintained a solid 12.9 BB%. The problem were the strikeouts, which clocked in at 30.8 K%, second highest in the league. Regardless, Baseball America ranked him the 76th best prospect in the game after the season.

Bumped up to Double-A Midland to start 2009, Carter enjoyed his finest pro season. Not only did he again lead the league in ISO (.239, led by 46 pts), but he still showed the same patient approach (13.8 BB%) while cutting down on the strike threes (24.3 K%). As a reward for his efforts, he received a statistically insignificant 13 game cameo with Triple-A Sacramento at the end of the season. All told, Carter posted career highs across the board in 2009 when he hit .329/.422/.570, and was named the 28th best prospect in baseball by the Baseball America gang after the campaign.

At 6-foot-5 and 230 lbs., Carter certainly passes the eye test as a power hitter. “Home runs always will be Carter’s calling card,” said the BA crew before the season started. “However, he dedicated himself to becoming a more complete hitter and stopped giving away at-bats … With his pure strength and explosive wrists, he still produces light-tower power. Carter can hit balls out of any part of any ballpark, and he’s strong enough to do so without having to sell out for power.” On the downside, they also note that he can get anxious at the plate and tends to jump at breaking balls, something that Carter will obviously have to work on.

Sent back to Triple-A to start the 2010 season, the A’s best prospect hit .262/.368/.531 with 27 homers in 503 plate appearances before getting the call over the weekend. He played his first game last night, going 0-for-3 with a pair of strikeouts, seeing a total of ten pitches as the A’s lost to Seattle.

Before the season, CHONE projected a .232/.311/.393 batting line for Carter, while ZiPS rest of the season projection has him at .233/.317/.416. Those high strikeout guys can have a tough time adjusting to big league pitching when they first get called up (cough Mike Stanton cough), so those predictions shouldn’t come as a surprise. Currently eligible at just 1B, Carter is playing LF for the A’s, so it’s only a matter of time before he gains eligibility there. He actually started his career as a third baseman (and even played a game at short in the minors), but that boat is long gone. 1B/OF will be his primary spots from here on out, and he isn’t particularly good at either (not that it matters here).

Given his home park and the offense around him, Carter’s fantasy value is likely to be low over the next two months and probably even next season. Given the rather mammoth production coming out of first baseman these days (seriously, 1B across the league are hitting .269/.354/.458) and some of the strong outfielders out there, I wouldn’t consider Carter for anything more than a injury fill-in at this point. If he goes on a tear and hits five homers in a week like he’s capable of, then by all means grab him. I’m just not confident in his ability to come up and produce right away.


Starting Pitchers: August 9th

Another week, another starting pitcher update…

Jeremy Hellickson | Rays | 7% owned

Hellboy made a rather spectacular debut against the Twins last week (7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K), and now he’s back for more. The team has announced that he will start tomorrow in Detroit, with either Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann going on the disabled list with a shoulder issue (as of this writing, the team has not announced who it will be). Hellickson certainly has the tools to be successful, but we always have to be cognizant of the natural ups-and-downs a 23-year-old rookie will experience, especially in the AL East. By all means pick him up, but I wouldn’t start him against any great hitting teams until he proves he’s up to the task.

Following tomorrow’s start against the Tigers, he’ll then start at home against the Rangers and then in Oakland.

Scott Kazmir | Angels | 27%

How the might have fallen. Kazmir used to be a fantasy gold mine because he racked up the strikeouts like few others, but these days he has basically no value. I’ve seen a few owners grab him in hopes of a resurgence, but don’t fall for it. His swinging strike percentage is down for the fourth straight year, his walks are up, the homers are up, it’s just ugly. Kinda sad in a way, since Kazmir’s still just 26-years-old. He should be entering his prime right now.

James McDonald | Pirates | 1%

McDonald’s debut with the Bucs following the trade with the Dodgers was rather fantastic (6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K), and now that he has a clear opening for regular starts, we can start to talk about him as a viable fantasy option. His fantastic strikeout and walk rates in the minors (9.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9) haven’t translated yet to the show, but he should settle in as a ~8 K/9 and ~4 BB/9 going forward. (R) ZiPS doesn’t like him the rest of the way (5.34 ERA, 5.08 FIP), but a low-4.00’s ERA is definitely possible in the NL Central with September call-ups not to far away. McDonald starts in San Diego on Wednesday.

Quick Notes: Jason Marquis is back for the Nats, but he’s basically non-rosterable … Esmil Rogers is filling in for the injury Aaron Cook, and although I like him as a sleeper for the long-term, I’d be careful this year.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


Waiver Wire: August 5th

Two scorching hot veteran players to help fill out your roster…

Omar Infante | 2B, 3B, SS, OF | Braves | 16% owned

All Star starter Martin Prado hit the disabled list with a fractured pinky finger earlier this week, forcing fellow All Star Infante into every day duty. That’s definitely not a bad thing though, because he’s hit .369/.396/.418 in his last 150 plate appearances dating back to early June. Over his last seven games he’s up to .438/.471/.500 with multiple hits in six of those contests. You won’t get much in terms of power and run production, but Infante should provide a big time AVG boost and a solid helping of runs scored while providing tremendous flexibility. He’s guaranteed playing time for at least the next week and a half.

Vicente Padilla | SP | Dodgers | 36%

Padilla has been featured in a waiver wire post in each of the last two months, so I figure we might as well do ahead and finish off the trifecta. The former Diamondback two-hit the first place Padres last night, giving him eight consecutive starts with no more than two runs allowed, earned or unearned. His strikeout rate (7.9 K/9) and WHIP (0.77) are better than just rock solid during that stretch as well. For all intents and purposes, Padilla’s been a fantasy ace since the end of June. His next three starts will not be a walk in the park though, he lines up to pitch in Philadelphia, in Atlanta, then at home against the Reds.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.