I don’t know what the opposite of a lagger is, so we’ll go with non-laggers for the time being. Anyway, two days ago we looked at five pitchers that underperformed their peripheral stats this year, getting saddled with superficially high ERA’s for whatever reason. Now let’s look at the opposite, five guys who have put up shiny ERA without necessarily having the underlying performance to match…

Clay Buchholz | FIP: 3.63 | ERA: 2.33

Just 0.05 points behind Felix Hernandez for the ERA crown (that’s one extra earned run over 180 IP), Buchholz’s strikeout (6.22 K/9) and walk (3.47 BB/9) rates are both below the league average (7.11 and 3.28, respectively). For some perspective, there have been just 196 instances of a pitcher posting a sub-3.00 ERA with a sub-2.00 K/BB (min. 150 IP) in the expansion era, and the Red Sox righty will be just the third to do it since 1999. Just ten others have done that with an ERA as low as Buchholz’s. His .265 BABIP, 79.0% LOB%, and 5.6% HR/FB all skew towards the pitcher-friendly side of the spectrum as well. There’s no denying that Buchholz is one of the very best young pitchers in baseball, but don’t count on ERA’s that hug the 2.30 line until he starts taking matters into his own hands by striking out a few more batters.

Trevor Cahill | FIP: 4.27 | ERA: 3.08

It’s hard to believe that Cahill started the season in Triple-A considering how well he’s performed, but that’s exactly what happened. Sticking with the common theme of the post, his strikeout rate is well below the league average at 5.31, but he makes up for it with a studly 55.7% ground ball rate. The problem is that all those grounders resulted in just a .237 BABIP, the lowest among all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings this year. That doesn’t pass the sniff test. Cahill will always get some help from his ballpark (where foul pop-ups go to die) and outfield defense, but he’s unlikely to keep opponents out of the hit column that well again in the future. Another great young arm like Buchholz, but not one that you should expect to post ERA’s that threaten to dip below 3.00, at least in the immediate future.

R.A. Dickey | FIP: 3.65 | ERA: 2.86

The UCL-less wonder, Dickey has been a godsend for a Mets rotation that seems to be in perpetual flux. He’s managed to limit the free passes to just 2.13 per nine innings despite employing the knuckleball, a pitch that by definition is unpredictable in its flight path. Dickey has also managed to get a ton of ground balls (55.3%) and limit the big flies (no doubt with some help from CitiField). Fair or not, Dickey’s going to have to prove himself again next season just because he has basically no track record at this level, and also because it’s tough to buy into a knuckleballer being a sub-3.00 ERA, or even sub-3.50 ERA pitcher on a consistent basis.

Tim Hudson | FIP: 4.01 | ERA: 2.76

Remember that sub-3.00 ERA, sub-2.00 K/BB club I was talking about with Buchholz above? You can include Hudson in that group as well. His first full season after reconstructive elbow surgery has to be considered a smashing success, simply because he reverted back to the guy he had been his entire career: a ground ball generating workhorse. Hudson has never been one to strike out many batters (5.52 K/9 this year, 6.07 career), but his swinging strike rate dropped to a below league average and career worst 7.0% in 2010. He is what he is at this point, and even though a sub-3.00 ERA is always possible, I’d bet on a return to his mid-3.00’s form next year. And there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that.

Jonathan Sanchez | FIP: 4.00 | ERA: 3.15

Sanchez is a DIPS theory marvel. He can be flat out unhittable and strikeout out double digit batters, but still exit a start in the sixth inning because he’s walked the farm and one or two of the hits he did allow left the yard. His 9.56 K/9 is third best in the NL, but his 4.35 BB/9 is no better than middle of the pack. Sanchez will always benefit from his ballpark and playing in the lesser league, and the ability to get batters out all by his lonesome should help him limit big innings. Assuming the Giants shore up their defense over the winter (far from a given), Sanchez is very capable of posting low-3.00 ERA’s over the next few years despite all those extraneous walks.

Angry because the Mariners decided not to pitch Felix on Sunday? Here’s a few guys that could help ease the pain…

Tim Stauffer | SP | Padres | 11% owned

Once upon a time Stauffer was the fourth overall pick in the draft, but injuries have delayed his big league breakout until this season, at age-28. He slid into the rotation earlier this month after working in long relief all season, and he’s given the Padres more than they could have asked for. Stauffer has posted a 2.25 ERA (~2.90 FIP) in five starts, holding the opposition to one run or less four times. He’s got one start left, this Saturday against the Giants and Barry Zito with San Diego’s season possibly on the line.

Paul Maholm | SP | Pirates | 17%

Maholm usually isn’t a guy fantasy owners rush out to acquire given his low strikeout, high contact, few wins resume, but if you’re stuck in the finals and need a spot start this weekend, he’s about as good a bet as you’ll find on the waiver wire. He’s allowed just eight earned runs (13 total) with 20 strikeouts and six walks in his last four starts (24.1 IP), and this weekend he meets up with the Hanley Ramirez-less Marlins in Miami. Perhaps it’s a strong finish, perhaps is just a four start fluke, but if you’re desperate and need help, at least go for the hot hand.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

Every year a few pitchers run into particularly poor luck or get stuck with a bad defense or shoddy bullpen work and see their ERA suffer despite strong peripheral stats. It drives fantasy owners nuts because a guy is pitching well but we aren’t reaping the full benefits. With less than five days left in baseball’s regular season, here are five starting pitchers who outperformed their ERA by more than half-a-run this season…

Edwin Jackson | FIP: 3.86 | ERA: 4.51

Jackson obviously split time between each league, with his stint in Arizona representing the ugly half (well, really two-thirds). The K/9 (6.97) and BB/9 (4.02) weren’t anything special with the D-Backs, but his ERA was still almost a run greater than his FIP. The numbers improved across the board after the trade to the ChiSox (9.22 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, 3.25 ERA, 3.09 FIP) despite moving to the tougher league, but more than anything he benefited from a LOB% regression. After consecutive seasons of a ~76% strand rate, it dipped to 67.1% in Arizona before rebounding to 75.6% in Chicago. I thought maybe the D-Backs horrifically bad bullpen cost him a bunch of runs, but it turns out they allowed just four of Jackson’s nine inherited runners to score (compared to three of nine with the ChiSox).

Anyway, it’s easy to forget that Jackson is just entering his prime (turned 27 this month), so his best years should be coming very soon. In fact, at 3.7 WAR, 2010 was a career year for the former Dodger. Some unfortunate luck did him in this season, but going forward an ERA right at 4.00 or even a touch below isn’t out of the question.

Brandon Morrow | FIP: 3.17 | ERA: 4.49

Shut down due to an innings limit earlier this month, Morrow’s first full season as a big league starter has been a smashing success for the Blue Jays, even if his ERA doesn’t necessarily agree. His 10.95 K/9 was by far the best by a pitcher with at least 140 IP (Yovani Gallardo and Jon Lester tied for second at 9.71), and even though his 4.06 BB/9 is a tad high, it did improve as the summer went on. A .348 BABIP is a little up there for a guy that gets swings-and-missed 11.0% of the time, and the 69.0% LOB% is a bit on the low side. Either way, there’s every reason to expect Morrow to continue to improve with experience, and he could be primed for a take-off next season.

Ricky Nolasco | FIP: 3.87 | ERA: 4.51

Nolasco was the ERA-FIP darling coming into 2010, with 2009’s 3.35 FIP being sabotaged by a 61.0% LOB% that resulted in a 5.06 ERA. His K/9 dropped more than a full strikeout to a still respectable 8.39 this year (perhaps due to decreased movement on his splitter) while his walk rate actually improved to 1.88 BB/9, though his homerun rate jumped a bit to 12.4% from 11.0% (FB% increased 1.3% to 41.1%). Nolasco’s season ended in late-August because of a knee injury, and there’s always the possibility that it was hindering his performance. He’s consistently posted stellar DIPS numbers (this year’s FIP is the worst of his career for a full season), and I’d jump right back on this horse next season. In fact, he could end up being a little undervalued on draft day.

Rick Porcello | FIP: 4.33 | ERA: 5.01

The 21-year-old wunderkind got a little taste of statistical correction this season, after enjoying a 3.96 ERA and a 4.77 FIP last year. He cut down on his walk (2.19 BB/9) and homerun rates (9.5% HR/FB) this season while maintaining a strikeout rate right around 4.6 K/9, but a BABIP jump (.306 after .281 last year) and LOB% drop-off (64.2% after 75.5%) really did him in this season. Of course the awful start to the season hurt Porcello’s numbers more than anything, but until he starts missing some more bats he’s not going to post low enough ERA’s to justify the lack of strikeouts and the unspectacular WHIP’s.

James Shields | FIP: 4.26 | ERA: 5.04

What happened to Jamie? He was Jamie all throughout his minor league career, but as soon as he got to show it was James. Meh, whatever.

Anyway, Shields caught a real bad case of homeritis in the middle of the season, allowing 19 longballs in just 77.1 IP from late-May to early-August. His strikeout rate is at an all-time high (8.44 K/9), and although his walk rate is the worst of his career, a 2.22 BB/9 is nothing to be ashamed of. I guess the concern is that his BB/9, GB%, HR/FB, BABIP, LOB%, AVG against, wFB/C, and wCB/C have all been trending in the wrong direction for a few seasons now, which is not something you want to see from a guy that’s about to complete his age-28 season. Don’t get me wrong, Shields is absolutely still a quality pitcher, but it’s not a slam dunk that he’ll return to being a very good fantasy starter in 2011.

* * *

Later this week we’ll look at the opposite, five guys who outperformed their peripherals and posted shiny ERA’s. Those are my favorite.

Like countless other fantasy owners, I jumped all over Marlins’ shortstop Hanley Ramirez with the second overall pick in my fantasy draft this season. The shortstop position in general is a wasteland, so getting a premium performer at that spot is a major coup. From 2007-2009, Ramirez hit .325/.398/.549 with a .409 wOBA and an average of 28.7 HR and 37.7 SB per year, and there was no reason to expect him to not continue producing at that pace as he entered his age-26 season.

On August 1st, 106 games into his season (arbitrary endpoints), Hanley sported a rather un-Hanley-like .279/.362/.435 batting line with just 14 homers. He was benched for a lack of hustle earlier in the season and had been battling a series of minor and nagging injuries all summer (everything from a sore ankle to a hamstring strain to lightheadness to a sore back according Corey Dawkins’ great injury tool). A late surge had Ramirez’s season line sitting at .300/.378/.475 (.373 wOBA) with 21 homers and 32 steals before elbow issues ended his season prematurely. It’s certainly fine production, but a notch below what he had done while posting consecutive seven-plus win seasons in 2008 and 2009.

Of course, offense is down around the league, something like 4.6% (ballpark figure). Ramirez’s offensive production is down around 10-14%, so it’s not just a matter of the decline in overall offense projecting itself onto him. Something else was going on this season, so let’s dive into the batted ball data.

Coming into the season with an established BABIP of around .350 or so, Hanley’s average on balls in play dipped to .327 in 2010, the lowest of his career. That can likely be attributed to a career worst 16.3% line drive rate, down about 2% or so from the past few seasons. His homerun production remained very strong (14.2% HR/FB) even though his fly ball rate was a career low 32.7%, down considerably (8-10% or so) from his previous performances. As you’d expect with career lows in LD% and FB%, his groundball rate was a career high 51%, up almost 10% from the past few years.

Naturally, the increase in grounders led to fewer extra base hits, with Hanley’s ISO dipping into the .100’s (.175, to be exact) for the first time since his rookie campaign. Let’s graph it up, with some help from Texas Leaguers. Here’s his 2008 and 2009 spray charts…

Now here’s 2010…

Nothing really out of sorts here, though the increase in opposite field homeruns stands out. Of course adding power the other way isn’t unusual players as talented as Hanley at that age. The hits to shallow left and center are a bit more spread out this year compared to 2008-2009, when they were lumped together in two distinct groups, but otherwise there’s nothing to get worked up over. The fact that nothing stands out, say an extreme increase in balls hit to the opposite field or yanked down the line, is a good thing. We don’t want change, we want the same old Hanley Ramirez.

Has Troy Tulowitzki eclipsed Hanley as the top fantasy shortstop? I think a very strong case can be made that he has, but that’s an argument for another time. If Ramirez is able to cut back on the grounders and starts clubbing more line drives and fly balls, the ISO and run production will come back. His batted ball profile changed somewhat considerably as he battled elbow problems and various other ailments (correlation ≠ causation, of course), but at his age there’s no reason to think his bat has slowed to the point that it’s a long-term concern.

I wouldn’t at all hesitate to grab Ramirez with a top three fantasy pick next season. He’s still clearly an elite fantasy performer even with his “down” season, particularly at the shortstop season. Sometimes players just have seasons below their standards, and that’s quite easy to do when your standards are as lofty as Hanley’s.

Two last minute pick-ups for your team…

Craig Breslow | RP | Athletics | 3% owned

Oakland lost closer Andrew Bailey for the rest of the year with elbow issues, and while Mike Wuertz figures to get the lion’s share of the ninth inning duties from here on out, Breslow will get the opps against lefties. He’s had a fine overall year (3.12 ERA, 4.31 xFIP, 8.70 K/9) but has been death to lefties with a 9.25 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, and .189 AVG against. Breslow should get a few chances to close out some games during the season’s final weeks with the somewhat lefty heavy Angels and then the Mariners on the schedule. At this point, every save counts.

Mike Morse | 1B, OF | Nationals | 3%

It took some time after releasing Elijah Dukes, but the Nationals finally managed to find their everyday rightfielder. Morse stepped into the job for good in early August, and he hasn’t give the team any reason to regret that decision. If we play the arbitrary end point game, we can see that he’s hitting .292/.345/.523 in his last 235 PA and a robust .354/.433/.582 in his last 90 PA. As contending teams clinch playoff spots and start to rest their regulars, the Nats will keep running Morse out there to evaluate him for next year, and that’s good for your fantasy team. Depending on your league, he might even have SS eligibility from his time with the Mariners, but that was a seriously long time ago.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

September is a great time for non-contenders to call up some young players and give them playing time to see what they’re made of, but it’s not often that a contender calls up a rookie and throws him to the wolves in the middle of a division race. That’s exactly what the Braves did last night with righthander Brandon Beachy, who took the place of the injured Jair Jurrjens and allowed three runs (one earned) in 4.1 innings of work in Philadelphia.

Given the hostile environment and general awesomeness that is the Phillies right now, it’s a more than respectable performance for a kid that wasn’t even drafted out of Indiana Wesleyan University in 2008. Bryan Smith did fine job of introducing you to Beachy and reviewing last night’s performance, so I’m going to skip that stuff and get to the fantasy portion of our program.

Jurrjen’s has been diagnosed with a “small horizontal meniscus tear” in his knee and even though he expects to make his next start, Beachy will prepare himself for the outing just in case. That start would come Sunday at the Nationals, and in the event that he gets another start after that, it could come at home against the Phillies in the second to last game of the season.

Obviously Beachy’s not going to come in and blow anyone away or anything like that, so the only reason to consider him for your roster this late in the season is if you absolutely need a win or have to roll the dice to get the ERA and WHIP down. That’s the situation I was in last week when I had to pick up and start Chris Narveson and Jeremy Bonderman on Sunday out of complete desperation. Needless to say, my season’s over.

The important thing to remember is that the Braves are approaching desperation mode, so if the rookie struggles at all Bobby Cox is likely to have a real quick hook. That makes a win less likely, negating a huge chunk of Beachy’s value. Despite a monster 11.2 K/9 in the minors this year, it would be careless to grab him with the expectation of improving your strikeout column by that much. The best advice I can give is to simply play it by ear, and if you need someone to make that desperation start on Sunday, Beachy’s not a terrible option. Assuming he actually makes the start, of course.

*obvious joke title is obvious

Rotation updates from around the league for those of you still battling it out in the playoffs…

Jair Jurrjens | Braves | 63% owned

Jurrjens will miss his scheduled start tonight against the Phillies because of a knee issue that will require at least an MRI, and will be replaced by rookie righthander Brandon Beachy. I plan on looking at Beachy a little more tomorrow, but grabbing him for the start tonight is probably a bad idea. A rookie in Philly in the middle of a pennant race against Cole Hamels? Eh, might be better to pass on that.

Andy Pettitte | Yankees | 76% owned

Out since mid-July due to a groin injury, Pettitte returned yesterday and didn’t miss a beat. He limited the Orioles to one run through six innings, exiting the game only because he was on an 80 pitch count. The Yankee bullpen blew his win, but that’s part of life. Pettitte should make two more starts this season before the playoffs, one at home against the Red Sox and one on the road against the Blue Jays. Considering how well he’s pitched this year (2.81 ERA, 3.90 FIP), start start start.

Joel Pineiro | Angels | 18%

Like Pettitte, Pineiro returned to his team’s rotation this weekend to perform admirably: two runs in six innings against the Rays. Out since late-June because of an oblique issue, Pineiro’s extreme strike-throwing and groundball approach limits his fantasy value because he is a bit hittable (and by extension, certain prone to allowing plenty of runs) and doesn’t strike anyone out. However, Pineiro’s a good play because his final two starts come against the White Sox and Athletics, hardly offensive powerhouses.

Chris Young | Padres | 10%

The 6-foot-10 righthander finally returned to San Diego’s rotation this weekend, more than five months after his first (and only other) start of the season. Young allowed one run in just four innings of work against the Cardinals on Saturday, and it appears that his days as a low-to-mid-3.00’s ERA guy are behind him. The fastball is closer to 85 than 90 and his walk rate continues to go up, and he’s always been an extreme flyball pitcher in part due to his height. Young is a complete unknown at this point, and his last two starts comes against the Reds and Cubs at Petco. Start him at your own risk.

Quick Notes: The Mariners have hinted at limiting Felix Hernandez’s workload the rest of the way, which could mean skipping his final start, scheduled for the last day of the season … Jaime Garcia will have his start skipped on Thursday, the second straight time the team will sit him in an effort to control his workload. Even if comes back to make another start at some point, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be effective given the layoff … Jason Hammel is battling a cold and what he calls a “dead arm,” but right now the team plans on having him make his next start on Saturday.

Less than nine months after being the centerpiece of the Roy Halladay trade, 22-year-old Kyle Drabek will make his first big league start tomorrow night against the Orioles in Baltimore. Doug’s son just wrapped his first season in the Blue Jays’ organization, one in which he pitched to a 3.87 FIP with 7.33 K/9 in 27 starts (162 IP, a career high by just four innings) for the team’s Double-A affiliate in New Hampshire.

The statistical performance isn’t overwhelming, especially for a top prospect, but to understand how good Drabek can be you need to know what kind of stuff the kid brings to the table. ESPN’s Keith Law scouting Drabek during his last start, a tough luck loss in the playoffs in which he allowed one run on three hits and two walks in six innings of work, striking out five. Here’s a snippet of KLaw’s write-up from that outing (you need an Insider account to read the whole thing)…

… Wednesday night he brought the best stuff I’ve seen (or heard of) from him, with two plus-plus pitches and an aggressive approach. He started out 93-97 in the first inning and was 91-96 by the end of his outing, hitting 97 at least three times over the first two frames. His power curveball at 84-86 was a big league out pitch, with depth and a very sharp break — and he threw it for strikes in addition to burying it for swings and misses.

He barely used — or needed — his straight changeup, but it’s also not yet on par with the other two pitches. He worked to both sides of the plate and overpowered most of the hitters in Trenton’s weak lineup. Drabek takes a long stride toward the plate and generates great arm speed from it, although he doesn’t rotate his hips much and is off the rubber very quickly. I’m more concerned by his tendency to throw across his body when going to his glove side because of how he cuts himself off in his landing. Those two pitches do give him ace potential that I hadn’t seen from him, although the lack of a solid third offering and the minor delivery issues probably give him a realistic ceiling just below that.

Clearly, Drabek has the pure stuff needed to succeed in the big leagues, it’s just a question of whether or not he can take that next step, and how quickly he can do it. The big problem this year was walks; his 3.8 BB/9 in 2010 isn’t horrible, but certainly not what you usually see out of elite pitching prospects. Drabek is now two years out from Tommy John surgery, so his command should have come back by now. For what it’s worth, his BB/9 was a full walk lower at 2.8 last season and 3.8 before his surgery.

Chances are your league is deep in the playoffs now, so the idea of rolling the dice with a complete unknown – granted, a high-upside unknown – might not sit well with some. The Orioles are a below average hitting team against fastballs (-15.1 wFB) and one of the worst against curveballs (-14.1 wCB), Drabek’s two bread-and-butter pitches. Of course it’s not that simple, but if the righty avoids the rookie jitters and manages to throw like he’s capable of (and not overthrow, that’s the big thing), he’s a very good chance that he’ll have one of those blow-you-away debuts.

If you have a comfortable lead in ERA and WHIP (or are way behind, for that matter) and can afford to take a bit of a hit in those categories in exchange for some additional strikeouts and possibly a win, I can’t recommend Drabek enough. He’s owned in just 4% of Yahoo! leagues, so there’s not much urgency to go out and grab him before everyone else. Keep an eye out for the O’s lineup tomorrow; If Buck Showalter decides to go heavy on the September call-ups for some reason, then I’d grab Drabek before the game if your league allows it. Either way, Drabek’s real fantasy impact won’t come until at least next season.

There’s just a week or two left in the fantasy playoffs, so here’s a short update on two starting rotation spots involving a current phenom and a former on…

Kyle Drabek | Blue Jays | 2% owned

I’ll have more on Drabek tomorrow, but that doesn’t mean you should wait to grab the 22-year-old righthander out of the free agent pool. The Blue Jays have confirmed that they will call up their top prospect and give him his first big league start on Wednesday against the Orioles (in Baltimore). His next start after that comes at home against the oh-so-lowly Mariners. Gimme gimme gimme.

Jeff Francis | Rockies | 4%

Francis’ return from the disabled list comes at a good time for the Rockies, who just lost Aaron Cook for the rest of the season with a broken leg. Francis has never been a great fantasy option because of middling strikeout rates (6.15 K/9 career, 5.73 this year), his scary home park (although his career home FIP/ERA is better than on the road), and the fact that he’s just generally underwhelming. However, the Rockies are absolutely on fire and there’s definitely potential to steal some wins here (at the expense of ERA and WHIP). You might have just enough time to grab Francis for tonight’s start against the Padres, but if not, he still goes again the Dodgers later in the week.

Quick Notes: The Yankees expect Andy Pettitte back this coming Sunday against the Orioles, hopefully not too late for your team … Justin Masterson will finish the season in the bullpen.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Bryan Smith already did a wonderful job breaking down Aroldis Chapman and his role with the Reds down the stretch, but now let’s examine the fantasy impact of the next big Cuban star.

Chapman, 22, is coming up to pitch out of Dusty Baker’s bullpen in September, so right off the bat his value is diminished. Very few non-closer relievers are worth carrying on your roster in traditional leagues, unless maybe you’re in a roto league and looking to vulture some wins late in the season. With that said, Chapman could mirror a Hong-Chih Kuo type in the best case scenario; a super-high strikeout lefthanded reliever not limited to LOOGY work (I’m not counting his most recent work as the closer).

I doubt Chapman will be able to match Kuo’s stingy walk rate (2.77 K/9), at least initially; he’s walked 3.6 men per nine innings as a reliever in the minors, 4.9 overall, but it’s worth noting that he’s walked just four in a dozen appearances this month. The rest of the goods are there. He’s death to lefthanders, striking out 53 against just 15 walks with a 51.5% ground ball rate in 32.2 IP in the minors, and good against righties (9.63 K/9 in 66.1 IP). It’s easy to understand why he dominates same-sided batters with his top shelf velocity and slider, not to mention his all arms and legs delivery.

But how useful is he for us fantasy owners? Dusty Baker is than willing to trust young pitchers, which works in Chapman’s favor, but realistically we’re looking at maybe 3-4 innings a week. There’s almost a zero chance of him usurping Francisco Cordero without the help of an injury, and even in that case Nick Masset and Arthur Rhodes are probably first in line to fill-in. If you’re league counts holds, then maybe he’s worth more of a consideration.

Despite the hype, I’d tread carefully with Chapman. The reward is very limited given his role, but the blowup potential is pretty damn big at this point in time. He’s owned in 20% of Yahoo! leagues, but it’s too much of a gamble for me this late in the season. With September right around the corner, it’s a too little, too late for Chapman to have any real fantasy impact.